David Deutsch: Chemical scum that dream of distant quasars

翻译人员: Juncheng Sun 校对人员: Tony Yet

We've been told to go out on a limb and say something surprising.

主办方要求我们大胆陈述，做到语不惊人死不休。

So I'll try and do that,

因此我会努力达到这一点。但是

but I want to start with two things that everyone already knows.

我想先从大家都知道的两件事说起。

And the first one, in fact, is something that has been known

第一件事，事实上这是

for most of recorded history,

从有记录的历史以来就众所周知的事。

and that is, that the planet Earth, or the solar system,

这就是地球，或者太阳系，

or our environment or whatever,

或者说我们的环境，或诸如此类，

is uniquely suited to sustain our evolution --

独一无二地适合维持我们的进化，或者说创造，正如我们之前所理解的一样--

or creation, as it used to be thought --

and our present existence, and most important, our future survival.

适合我们当下的生存，最重要的是我们未来的生存。

Nowadays, this idea has a dramatic name: Spaceship Earth.

今天这个概念有一个戏剧化的名字：太空船地球。

And the idea there is that outside the spaceship,

在这个概念里，太空船之外

the universe is implacably hostile,

宇宙不可调和地充满敌意，

and inside is all we have, all we depend on,

而其内部是我们所赖以生存的一切。

and we only get the one chance: if we mess up our spaceship,

我们只有一次机会：如果我们将我们的太空船折腾坏了，

we've got nowhere else to go.

我们将无处可去。

Now, the second thing that everyone already knows

第二件大家都知道的事是

is that, contrary to what was believed for most of human history,

与我们在人类历史中大部分时间所坚信的相反

human beings are not, in fact, the hub of existence.

人类事实上并不是存在的中心。

As Stephen Hawking famously said,

大家都知道Stephen Hawking说过

we're just a chemical scum on the surface of a typical planet

我们只是存在于一个典型星球表面的一些化学污垢

that's in orbit around a typical star,

这个典型星球环绕着一个典型恒星绕行太空，

which is on the outskirts of a typical galaxy, and so on.

而这个典型恒星位于一个典型银河系的边缘，以此类推。

Now, the first of those two things that everyone knows is kind of saying

大家都知道的两件事当中的第一件

大概是说我们存在于一个非常不典型的地方，

that we're at a very untypical place, uniquely suited and so on.

独一无二的适合性等，

And the second one is saying that we're at a typical place.

而第二件事却说我们存在于一个典型的地方。

And, especially if you regard these two as deep truths to live by

尤其是当你将这两件事当作生命中深刻的真理

and to inform your life decisions,

并以此作为你人生决策的依据，

then they seem a little bit to conflict with each other.

那么他们似乎彼此有些冲突。

But that doesn't prevent them from both being completely false.

但是这也没法改变他们都是彻底错误的这一事实。（观众笑声）

(Laughter)

And they are.

他们就是错误的。让我从第二件事说起：

So let me start with the second one: typical.

典型。让我们看一下--这是一个典型的地方吗？让我们看一下四周，如你所见，

Well, is this a typical place?

Well, let's look around, you know, look in a random direction,

随便超哪个方向望去，我们会看到一堵墙，还有一些化学污垢 -- （观众笑声）

and we see a wall and chemical scum --

(Laughter)

and that's not typical of the universe at all.

-- 而这在宇宙中一点也不典型。

All you've got to do is go a few hundred miles in that same direction

你所要做得是，朝着同一个方向前行数百英里然后往回看，

and look back,

and you won't see any walls or chemical scum at all --

你将根本不会看到任何墙或者化学污垢 --

all you see is a blue planet.

你所能看到是一个蓝色星球。如果你继续前行，

And if you go further than that,

you'll see the Sun, the solar system and the stars and so on,

你会看到太阳，太阳系，以及恒星等等。

but that's still not typical of the universe,

然而这在宇宙中仍然不算典型，因为恒星存在于星系中。

because stars come in galaxies.

And most places in the universe, a typical place in the universe,

宇宙中的大部分地方，或者说宇宙中一个典型的地方，

is nowhere near any galaxies.

不是任何靠近星系的地方。

So let's go out further, till we're outside the galaxy,

因此我们继续前行，直到我们走出星系，然后再往回看，

and look back,

and yeah, there's the huge galaxy with spiral arms laid out in front of us.

是的，你会看到巨大的星系，它螺旋形的触手展现在我们面前。

而到达此地，我们已经跨越了十万光年。

And at this point, we've come 100,000 light-years from here.

But we're still nowhere near a typical place in the universe.

但是我们仍然一点也没有靠近宇宙中的典型地方。

To get to a typical place,

要到达典型地方，

you've got to go 1,000 times as far as that,

你需要跨越此距离的1000倍，直到你到达星系与星系中间的地方。

into intergalactic space.

And so, what does that look like -- "typical?"

那里看上去是什么样子呢？典型的。

What does a "typical" place in the universe look like?

那么宇宙中一个典型的地方看上去是怎样的呢？

Well, at enormous expense, TED has arranged

在这里，TED不惜代价，给大家安排了一次高清晰的

a high-resolution immersion virtual reality rendering

模拟的星系间空间的真实体验

of the view from intergalactic space.

-- 星系间空间的景观。

Can we have the lights off, please, so we can see it?

请将电灯关闭，我们就可以看到了。

Well, not quite, not quite perfect.

不太准确，不是非常完美 -- 看到了吗？星系间的空间

You see, intergalactic space is completely dark, pitch dark.

--星系间的空间是彻底黑暗的，极端地黑暗。♪

It's so dark,

这个空间是如此的黑暗，假使你正盯着离你最近的恒星，

that if you were to be looking at the nearest star to you,

and that star were to explode as a supernova,

这颗恒星正好发生超新星爆炸，

and you were to be staring directly at it at the moment when its light reached you,

当光线射到你的时候，假使你正直勾勾地盯着它看，

you still wouldn't be able to see even a glimmer.

你甚至连微弱的闪光都无法看到。

That's how big and how dark the universe is.

宇宙就是如此的巨大和如此的黑暗。

And that's despite the fact that a supernova is so bright,

这还没有考虑超新星爆炸的光线是如此强烈和明亮，

so brilliant an event,

that it would kill you stone dead at a range of several light-years.

你在距离它数光年的地方会立马毙命。

(Laughter)

And yet, from intergalactic space,

但是在星系间的空间，它是如此的遥远，你甚至无法看见。

it's so far away you wouldn't even see it.

It's also very cold out there --

那里也非常寒冷

less than three degrees above absolute zero.

-- 不超过绝对零度三度。

And it's very empty.

什么都没有。那里真空的浓度比

The vacuum there is one million times less dense than the highest vacuum

目前地球上最好的技术可以产生的真空浓度的100万分之一还要小。

that our best technology on Earth can currently create.

所以这就是宇宙里一个典型的地方与这儿如何地不同。

So that's how different a typical place is from this place.

And that is how untypical this place is.

也就是说我们现在所处的这个地方是如此地不典型。

So can we have the lights back on please? Thank you.

请开灯，谢谢。

Now, how do we know about an environment that's so far away and so different

那么我们如何了解距离我们如此遥远的一个环境呢？

and so alien from anything we're used to?

与我们所熟悉的一切相比，它是如此不同，如此陌生。

Well, the Earth -- our environment, in the form of us --

地球 -- 我们的环境，以我们这一形式存在 -- 创造知识。

is creating knowledge.

Well, what does that mean?

这又意味着什么呢？向我们刚去过的地方的更远处望去--

Well, look out even further than we've just been --

I mean from here, with a telescope --

我的意思是从这里开始，利用望远镜 -- 你会看到类似恒星的东西。

and you'll see things that look like stars, they're called quasars.

他们叫做类星体。类星体原意是指类似恒星的物体。

"Quasars" originally meant "quasi-stellar object,"

which means "things that look a bit like stars."

也就是说是指看上去有点像恒星的物体。（观众笑声）但是他们不是恒星。

(Laughter)

But they're not stars.

And we know what they are.

我们已经知道他们是什么了。数十亿年前，数十亿光年之外，

Billions of years ago and billions of light-years away,

the material at the center of a galaxy collapsed

一个星系中心的物质朝着

towards a supermassive black hole.

一个超级巨大的黑洞塌陷。

And then intense magnetic fields directed some of the energy

随后密集的磁场对重力塌陷中的一些能量产生了导向作用。

of that gravitational collapse

其中一些物质，

and some of the matter

back out in the form of tremendous jets,

以巨大的喷射流的形式逃离，照亮了宏伟的太空，

which illuminated lobes

with the brilliance of -- I think it's a trillion -- suns.

-- 我认为相当于一千亿个太阳的光亮。

Now, the physics of the human brain could hardly be more unlike

然而，与这样一个喷射流的物理相比，我们人类大脑的物理大相径庭到极点。

the physics of such a jet.

We couldn't survive for an instant in it.

在这样的环境里，我们连一瞬间都无法生存。

Language breaks down when trying to describe

当我们试着描述那样的喷射流中的状况，语言变得无法表达。

what it would be like in one of those jets.

It would be a bit like experiencing a supernova explosion,

这可能有点像经历一次超新星爆炸，

but at point-blank range and for millions of years at a time.

但是是在零距离接触并且将数百万年的能量集中到同一时间爆发。（观众笑声）

(Laughter)

And yet, that jet happened in precisely such a way

但是，这个喷射流发生得如此地精确，以至于数十亿年后

that billions of years later, on the other side of the universe,

在宇宙的另一端，一些化学污垢可以准确地描述，

some bit of chemical scum could accurately describe

and model and predict and explain, above all --

建立模型，并预测和解释，最重要的是 -- 你可以找得到参考

there's your reference --

what was happening there, in reality.

-- 现实中曾经发生过的事。

The one physical system, the brain, contains an accurate working model

一个物理系统，大脑，

包含了另外一个物理系统的准确工作模型 -- 类星体。

of the other, the quasar.

Not just a superficial image of it, though it contains that as well,

不仅仅是一个粗浅的图像，虽然也包含图像，

but an explanatory model,

而且还包含解释性的模型，表达同样的数学

embodying the same mathematical relationships

and the same causal structure.

关系和一样的因果结构。

Now, that is knowledge.

这就是知识。如果这还不够让你惊讶的话，

And if that weren't amazing enough,

the faithfulness with which the one structure resembles the other

一个结构表达另外一个的准确性

is increasing with time.

正随着时间不断提高。这就是知识的增长。

That is the growth of knowledge.

So, the laws of physics have this special property,

因此，物理规律拥有这样一个特殊的性质。

that physical objects as unlike each other as they could possibly be

物体，不管他们彼此多么相异，

can, nevertheless, embody the same mathematical and causal structure

却仍然能够表现同样的数学和因果结构，

and to do it more and more so over time.

而且随着时间增长表现得越来越多。

So we are a chemical scum that is different.

因此我们是与众不同的化学污垢。这一化学污垢拥有普适性。

This chemical scum has universality.

Its structure contains, with ever-increasing precision,

它的结构准确度越来越高地包容着，

the structure of everything.

世界万物的结构。这个地方，不是宇宙中任何其他地方，

This place, and not other places in the universe,

is a hub which contains within itself the structural and causal essence

在它自身内部，成为一个包容了其他一切宇宙万物结构性和因果性精髓的中心。

of the whole of the rest of physical reality.

因此，意义深远的是，

And so, far from being insignificant,

the fact that the laws of physics allow this

物理规律允许这一现象，抑或甚至主导了它的发生这一事实

or even mandate that this can happen

is one of the most important things about the physical world.

是关于物理世界的最重要的事情之一。

Now, how does the solar system -- our environment, in the form of us --

那么太阳系-- 我们的环境，以我们的形式--

acquire this special relationship with the rest of the universe?

是如何获取这样一个与宇宙其他部分的特殊关系的呢？

Well, one thing that's true about Stephen Hawking's remark --

Stephen Hawking观点中其中一个正确面--我的意思是，这是正确的，

I mean, it is true, but it's the wrong emphasis --

但是着重点是错的。其中一个正确面是

one thing that's true about it is that it doesn't do it with any special physics,

它并没有倚赖任何特殊的物理学。没有特殊的放宽，

there's no special dispensation, no miracles involved.

没有奇迹发生。它的发生只依赖于我们现在富有的三种东西。

It does it simply with three things that we have here in abundance.

One of them is matter,

其中一个是物质，因为知识的增长是一种信息处理的形式。

because the growth of knowledge is a form of information processing.

信息处理需要计算，

Information processing is computation, computation requires a computer,

计算需要电脑--

and there's no known way of making a computer without matter.

现有的知识下不可能不需要物质来制造电脑。

We also need energy to make the computer, and most important,

我们还需要能量来制造电脑，最重要的是，

to make the media, in effect, onto which we record

要使得用来记录我们所发现知识的媒介工作。

the knowledge that we discover.

And then thirdly, less tangible but just as essential

第三种东西，较难感触得到，但是在开放式的知识和解释的开发中

for the open-ended creation of knowledge, of explanations,

同样关键的是证据。

is evidence.

我们的环境中充满了证据。

Now, our environment is inundated with evidence.

We happened to get round to testing, let's say, Newton's law of gravity,

但是我们常常忽略了测试--比如，牛顿的地球引力定律

about 300 years ago.

--大约是在300年前提出的。

But the evidence that we used to do that

但是我们习以为常的证据，从数十亿年前就在地球上的每个角落里不断坠落，

was falling down on every square meter of the Earth

for billions of years before that,

也会在接下来的数十亿年里继续坠落。

and we'll continue to fall for billions of years afterwards.

其他科学也同样如此。

And the same is true for all the other sciences.

As far as we know,

就我们所知，发掘所有科学大部分基本真理的证据

evidence to discover the most fundamental truths of all the sciences

就在我们的星球上等待我们获取。

is here just for the taking, on our planet.

Our location is saturated with evidence

我们所在的地方充满了证据，还有物质和能量。

and also with matter and energy.

Out in intergalactic space,

而在星系间的空间中，这三个

those three prerequisites for the open-ended creation of knowledge

创造开放式知识的前提条件存在的可能性极端之小。

are at their lowest possible supply --

as I said, it's empty, it's cold and it's dark out there.

正如我所说，那里空无一物，寒冷，黑暗。抑或不是如此？

Or is it?

Now actually, that's just another parochial misconception.

事实上，这只是另外一个狭隘的误解。（观众笑声）

(Laughter)

Because imagine a cube out there in intergalactic space,

假想在星系间空间有一个立方体存在，

the same size as our home, the solar system.

与我们的房屋般大小，太阳系。以我们的标准来看，这个立方体非常空，

Now, that cube is very empty by human standards,

but that still means that it contains over a million tons of matter.

但是它事实上仍然包含着超过百万吨的物质。

And a million tons is enough to make, say, a self-contained space station,

一百万吨足够建造一个，比方说，自给自足的空间站，

on which there's a colony of scientists

在这个空间站内聚居着一群科学家，他们致力于不断创造

that are devoted to creating an open-ended stream of knowledge, and so on.

开放式的知识，等等。

Now, it's way beyond present technology

然而，现在的科技甚至连从星系间空间收集氢气

to even gather the hydrogen from intergalactic space

和将其转化成别的元素等都远不能做到。

and form it into other elements and so on.

But the thing is, in a comprehensible universe,

但问题是，在一个可理解的宇宙中，

if something isn't forbidden by the laws of physics,

如果某事是物理定律所允许的，

then what could possibly prevent us from doing it, other than knowing how?

那么在我们知道如何运作的情况下，什么会妨碍我们去实践它呢？

In other words, it's a matter of knowledge, not resources.

换句话说，这是一个关于知识的问题，而不是关于资源。

If we could do that, we'd automatically have an energy supply,

同样，如果我们可以做到的话，那么我们将自动获得能源供给，

because this transmutation would be a fusion reactor.

因为这里的变化将是核反应堆 -- 证据？

And evidence?

Well, again, it's dark out there to human senses,

还是一样，对人类的感官来说那里漆黑一片。但是你所需要做的是

but all you've got to do is take a telescope,

even one of present-day design,

拿起一个望远镜，甚至是今天的技术设计，

look out, and you'll see the same galaxies as we do from here.

往外看去，你会看到我们从这儿看到的同样的星系。

And with a more powerful telescope,

如果你有一个更强大的望远镜，你将能看到恒星和行星。

you'll be able to see stars and planets in those galaxies,

you'll be able to do astrophysics and learn the laws of physics.

在那些星系里，你可以进行天体物理学研究，了解物理定律。

And locally there, you could build particle accelerators

在你所处的位置，你可以制造粒子加速器,

and learn elementary particle physics and chemistry, and so on.

研究初级粒子物理学，化学等。

Probably the hardest science to do would be biology field trips --

也许最难做的科学研究是生物学实地考察，因为需要花费

(Laughter)

because it would take several hundred million years

数百万年才能往返最近的有生命的星球。

to get to the nearest life-bearing planet and back.

But I have to tell you -- and sorry, Richard --

但是我必须告诉你 -- 对不起，Richard --

but I never did like biology field trips much --

但是我从来都不是那么喜欢生物学实地考察，

(Laughter)

我想我们可以每数百万年才进行一次。

and I think we can just about make do

with one every few hundred million years.

(Laughter)

（观众笑声）

So, in fact, intergalactic space does contain all the prerequisites

因此事实上，星系间空间并不具备创造开放式知识的前提条件。

for the open-ended creation of knowledge.

任何一个这样的立方体，在宇宙中任何地方，

Any such cube anywhere in the universe

could become the same kind of hub that we are,

都可以成为跟我们一样的中心，

如果履行这一计划的知识确实存在的话。

if the knowledge of how to do so were present there.

So, we're not in a uniquely hospitable place.

因此我们并不是唯一热情好客的地方。

If intergalactic space is capable of creating

如果星系间空间可以创造出一串开放式的解说，

an open-ended stream of explanations,

then so is almost every other environment,

那么几乎其它所有的环境都是可以的。地球也一样。被污染的地球也是一样。

so is the Earth.

So is a polluted Earth.

And the limiting factor, there and here,

而限制性因素，这里和那里，不是资源，因为资源很充沛，

is not resources -- because they're plentiful --

but knowledge, which is scarce.

而是知识，非常匮乏。

Now, this cosmic knowledge-based view may -- and, I think, ought to --

这样一个知识型的宇宙观也许 -- 我认为应该

make us feel very special.

-- 让我们感觉非常不平凡。但同时也让我们感觉到自己的脆弱,

But it should also make us feel vulnerable,

because it means that without the specific knowledge

因为这也意味着如果没有那些必需的具体的知识来帮助我们应对宇宙中

that's needed to survive the ongoing challenges of the universe,

源源不断地挑战，我们将无法生存。

we won't survive them.

All it takes is for a supernova to go off a few light-years away,

仅仅是几光年外的一个超新星爆炸，我们都将必死无疑。

and we'll all be dead!

Martin Rees has recently written a book

Martin Rees最近刚写了一本关于我们人类对于所有事物的脆弱性的书，

about our vulnerability to all sorts of things,

from astrophysics, to scientific experiments gone wrong,

从天体物理学，到科学实验事故，

and most importantly, to terrorism with weapons of mass destruction.

还有最重要的拥有大规模杀伤性武器的恐怖主义。

And he thinks that civilization has only a 50 percent chance

他认为人类文明只有50%的机率可以存活过这个世纪。

of surviving this century.

I think he's going to talk about that later in the conference.

我想他晚些时候会在这个会上给大家讲述。

Now, I don't think that probability is the right category

但是我认为这一问题并不适合用机率来描述。

to discuss this issue in,

but I do agree with him about this:

但是我同意他就此的看法。我们可以生存下去，我们也可能不会存续。

we can survive and we can fail to survive.

But it depends, not on chance,

但是这并不取决于机率，而是我们是否可以及时创造出相关的知识。

but on whether we create the relevant knowledge in time.

The danger is not at all unprecedented.

这种危险肯定不是前所未有的。物种一直都在灭绝。

Species go extinct all the time.

Civilizations end.

文明也会终止。绝大多数存在过的物种和文明

The overwhelming majority of all species and all civilizations

that have ever existed

都以成历史。

are now history.

And if we want to be the exception to that,

如果我们想成为例外的话，逻辑上来看我们唯一的希望

then logically, our only hope is to make use of the one feature

是利用将我们这个种群和文明与其他物种区别开的这个特征，

that distinguishes our species and civilization from all the others,

与其他一切都区别开的这个特征。

namely, our special relationship with the laws of physics,

也就是，我们与物理定律得特殊关系。

our ability to create new explanations, new knowledge --

我们创造新的解释和知识的能力 -- 成为存在的中心。

to be a hub of existence.

So let me now apply this to a current controversy,

让我将此运用到当前的一个论战中，

not because I want to advocate any particular solution,

不是因为我想提议任何特定的解决方法，

but just to illustrate the kind of thing I mean.

而只是用来阐明我所要讲述的一些事。

And the controversy is global warming.

这个论战就是全球暖化。

Now, I'm a physicist, but I'm not the right kind of physicist.

我是一个物理学家，但我并不是此领域的物理学家。就全球暖化来说，

In regard to global warming, I'm just a layman.

我只是个门外汉。对一个门外汉来说理智的做法是

And the rational thing for a layman to do

is to take seriously the prevailing scientific theory.

严肃对待权威的科学理论。而根据这一理论，

And according to that theory, it's already too late to avoid a disaster,

已经太晚了，灾难在所难免。

because, if it's true that our best option at the moment is to prevent CO2 emissions

因为，如果我们目前最好的选择是阻止二氧化碳排放的话，

with something like the Kyoto Protocol,

例如通过东京议定书之类的，限制经济活动，

with its constraints on economic activity and its enormous cost

以及花费千亿美元等巨大的代价，

of hundreds of billions of dollars, or whatever it is,

then that is already a disaster by any reasonable measure.

那么不管如何衡量，这就已经是一个灾难了。

And the actions that are advocated are not even purported to solve the problem,

倡议的行动甚至都不是为解决问题，

merely to postpone it by a little.

而只是稍微推迟灾难的到来。因此灾难在所难免，一切都已晚，

So it's already too late to avoid it,

and it probably has been too late to avoid it

或在所有人意识到这个危险之前就已经太晚了。

ever since before anyone realized the danger.

It was probably already too late in the 1970s,

上世纪70年代的时候也许就已经太晚了，

when the best available scientific theory was telling us

那时候最先进的科学理论告诉我们工业排放

that industrial emissions were about to precipitate a new ice age,

将促成一个新的冰河世纪，数十亿的人类将从此灭亡。

in which billions would die.

Now, the lesson of that seems clear to me,

这一教训对我来说清晰可见，

and I don't know why it isn't informing public debate.

我不明白为什么它没有传达至公众辩论。

It is that we can't always know.

事实是我们不可能永远知道。当我们知道有一个灾难将要降临，

When we know of an impending disaster

and how to solve it at a cost less than the cost of the disaster itself,

应对这个灾难的成本要比灾难本身小，

then there's not going to be much argument, really.

那么就真的没有什么好争论的。

But no precautions and no precautionary principle

但是没有任何预防措施，或者预防原则

can avoid problems that we do not yet foresee.

可以帮助我们避免我们还没有预测到的问题。

因此我们需要准备好去解决问题，而不仅仅是避免问题。

Hence, we need a stance of problem-fixing,

not just problem-avoidance.

And it's true that an ounce of prevention equals a pound of cure,

一盎司的预防等于一盎司的解决，这是事实，

but that's only if we know what to prevent.

但是这只是在我们知道预防什么的情况下。

If you've been punched on the nose,

如果你的鼻子被打了一拳，医学不会教你

then the science of medicine does not consist of

teaching you how to avoid punches.

如何闪躲拳头。

(Laughter)

If medical science stopped seeking cures and concentrated on prevention only,

如果医学不再研究治病的方法，而是仅仅研究预防，

then it would achieve very little of either.

那么它将几乎一事无成。

The world is buzzing at the moment

目前整个世界都在不计成本地忙着计划来促成

with plans to force reductions in gas emissions at all costs.

气体排放量的减少。

It ought to be buzzing with plans to reduce the temperature

而它应该赶紧计划如何降低温度，

and with plans to live at the higher temperature --

以及计划如何在温度升高之后如何生存。

and not at all costs, but efficiently and cheaply.

不是不计成本，而是有效地、廉价的计划。而这样的一些计划已经存在了，

And some such plans exist,

things like swarms of mirrors in space to deflect the sunlight away

比如在太空中放置大批镜子来将太阳光反射出去，

and encouraging aquatic organisms to eat more carbon dioxide.

以及刺激海洋生物消费更多的二氧化碳。

At the moment, these things are fringe research;

而目前，这些都只是边缘研究。

they're not central to the human effort to face this problem

人类在应对这个问题或者广义上来说这些问题的时候，它们起不到核心作用。

or problems in general.

And with problems that we are not aware of yet,

对于我们并未知觉的问题，纠错的能力 --

the ability to put right -- not the sheer good luck of avoiding indefinitely --

不是无限期的躲过期发生的绝对好运 -- 是我们唯一的希望，

is our only hope, not just of solving problems,

不仅仅是为解决问题，而是为生存。

but of survival.

So, take two stone tablets

我们应该拿起两块石碑，在上边刻上铭文。

and carve on them.

On one of them, carve:

其中一块刻上”问题是可以解决的“。

"Problems are soluble."

And on the other one, carve:

另外一块刻上”问题是不可避免的“。

"Problems are inevitable."

Thank you.

谢谢。（观众鼓掌）

(Applause)