Larry Burns: Reinventing the car

Prevodilac: Miloš Vodogaz Lektor: Ivana Korom

People love their automobiles.

Ljudi vole svoje automobile.

Oni nam omogućavaju da idemo kuda i kada to želimo.

They allow us to go where we want to when we want to.

Oni su vrsta zabave,

They're a form of entertainment,

they're a form of art,

vrsta umetnosti,

a pride of ownership.

ponos vlasništva.

Songs are written about cars.

Pišu se pesme o automobilima.

Prince wrote a great song: "Little Red Corvette."

Princ je napisao sjajnu pesmu: "Mala crvena Korveta."

He didn't write "Little Red Laptop Computer" or "Little Red Dirt Devil."

Nije napisao: "Mali crveni laptop" ili "Mali crveni đavo."

He wrote about a car.

Pisao je o automobilu.

One of my favorites has always been:

Meni, jedna od najboljih je uvek bila

"Make Love to Your Man in a Chevy Van,"

"Vodi ljubav sa svojim čovekom u Ševrolet kombiju",

because that was my vehicle when I was in college.

jer sam imao isti takav automobil za vreme studija.

The fact is, when we do our market research around the world,

Kada radimo istraživanje tržišta širom sveta,

vidimo da kod jednog dela ljudi postoji skoro univerzalna težnja

we see there's a nearly universal aspiration on the part of people

za posedovanjem automobila.

to own an automobile --

750 million people in the world today own a car.

750 miliona ljudi u svetu danas poseduje automobil.

And you say, boy, that's a lot.

Onda kažemo, čoveče, pa to je mnogo.

But you know what?

Ali znate šta?

That's just 12 percent of the population.

Reč je samo o 12 posto stanovništva.

We really have to ask the question:

Zaista moramo postaviti pitanje:

može li svet podneti toliki broj automobila?

Can the world sustain that number of automobiles?

And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years,

Ako pogledate predviđanja za sledećih 10 do 15 ili 20 godina,

it looks like the world car park could grow

čini se da bi svetski vozni park mogao narasti na 1,1 milijardu vozila.

to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles.

Ako biste ih parkirali jedno ispred drugog,

If you park those end to end and wrap them around the Earth,

i omotali ih oko Zemlje,

that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.

mogli biste to uraditi 125 puta.

Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology

Automobilska tehnologija je ostvarila veliki napredak u proteklih 100 godina.

over the last 100 years.

Automobili su značajno čistiji, sigurniji, efikasniji

Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient

i radikalno dostupniji nego što su to bili pre 100 godina.

and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago.

But the fact remains:

Ali ostaje činjenica:

the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the same.

fundamentalni DNK automobila ostao je uglavnom isti.

If we were to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago,

Ako bismo danas izumeli automobil, za razliku od onog pre 100 godina,

knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product

znajući ono što znamo o problemima povezanim sa tim proizvodom

and about the technologies that exist today,

i s obzirom na danas postojeće tehnologije,

what would we do?

šta bismo stvorili?

We wanted something that was really affordable.

Želeli bismo nešto što ljudi sebi mogu priuštiti.

The fuel cell looked great:

Pogonska ćelija izgleda odlično:

one-tenth as many moving parts,

samo jedna desetina pokretnih delova

a fuel-cell propulsion system as an internal combustion engine,

i pogonski sistem ćelije kao motor s unutrašnjim sagorevanjem -

and it emits just water.

a ispušta samo vodu.

And we wanted to take advantage of Moore's Law

Želeli smo da iskoristimo Murov zakon

s elektronskim upravljanjem i softverom,

with electronic controls and software,

and we absolutely wanted our car to be connected.

i apsolutno želimo da nam auto bude povezan.

Stoga smo se upustili u ponovno otkrivanje

So we embarked upon the reinvention around an electrochemical engine,

elektrohemijskog motora,

the fuel cell,

pogonske ćelije, gde je vodonik nosilac energije.

and hydrogen as the energy carrier.

First was Autonomy.

Prvo je bio Autonomi.

Autonomy really set the vision for where we wanted to head.

Autonomi je definisao viziju kojoj težimo.

We embodied all of the key components of a fuel-cell propulsion system.

Uvrstili smo sve ključne komponente sistema pogonske ćelije.

We then had Autonomy drivable with Hy-Wire,

Zatim smo pokrenuli naš Autonomi pomoću "haj-vajer" pogona,

and we showed Hy-Wire here at this conference last year.

na prošlogodišnjoj konferenciji ovde smo pokazali "haj-vajer".

Hy-Wire is the world's first drivable fuel cell,

"Haj-vajer" je prva svetska upravljiva pogonska ćelija,

a zatim smo nastavili sa Sikvelom.

and we have followed up that now with Sequel.

And Sequel truly is a real car.

Sikvel je zaista sjajan automobil.

So if we could run the video --

Ako možemo da pokrenemo video -

(Futuristic music)

(Futuristička muzika)

[Reinventing the Automobile]

[Ponovno osmišljavanje automobila]

(Video) It truly is my great pleasure to introduce Sequel.

(Video) Veliko mi je zadovoljstvo da predstavim Sikvel.

[Acceleration]

[Ubrzavanje]

[Cruising]

[Vožnja]

[Steering]

[Upravljanje]

[Braking]

[Kočenje]

But the real key question I'm sure that's on your mind:

Ključno pitanje koje vam je, siguran sam, na pameti:

Where is the hydrogen going to come from?

odakle će doći taj vodonik?

And secondly, when are these kinds of cars going to be available?

I drugo, kada će ovakvi automobili postati dostupni?

So let me talk about hydrogen first.

Dopustite da prvo govorim o vodoniku.

The beauty of hydrogen is it can come from so many different sources:

Lepota vodonika je u tome što može nastati iz mnogo različitih izvora:

it can come from fossil fuels,

iz fosilnih goriva,

it can come from any way that you can create electricity,

možemo ga dobiti na iste načine na koje proizvodimo električnu energiju,

including renewables.

uključujući i obnovljive izvore.

And it can come from biofuels.

A može nastati i iz biogoriva.

Što je veoma uzbudljivo.

And that's quite exciting.

The vision here is to have each local community play to its natural strength

Ideja je

da svaka lokalna zajednica

koristi svoje prirodne prednosti

in creating the hydrogen.

u proizvodnji vodonika.

A lot of hydrogen is produced today in the world.

Danas u svetu proizvodimo mnogo vodonika.

It's produced to get sulfur out of gasoline --

Proizvodi se da bismo eliminisali sumpor iz benzina -

which I find is somewhat ironic.

što mi djeluje pomalo ironično.

It's produced in the fertilizer industry;

Proizvodimo ga u industriji veštačkih đubriva;

it's produced in the chemical manufacturing industry.

u hemijskoj prerađivačkoj industriji.

That hydrogen is being made

Vodonik se proizvodi

because there's a good business reason for its use.

jer postoje dobri poslovni razlozi za njegovu upotrebu.

But it tells us that we know how to create it,

To nam govori da znamo kako da ga proizvedemo,

we know how to create it cost-effectively,

znamo da ga proizvedemo troškovno efikasno,

we know how to handle it safely.

znamo njime da rukujemo bezbedno.

We did an analysis

Napravili smo analizu

where you would have a station in each city

po kojoj biste imali stanicu u svakom od 100

with each of the 100 largest cities in the United States,

najvećih gradova u Sjedinjenim Državama,

and located the stations

i smestili smo ih tako

so you'd be no more than two miles from a station at any time.

da ne biste ni u kom slučaju bili dalje od tri kilometra od stanice.

We put one every 25 miles on the freeway,

Postavili smo stanicu na svakih 40 kilometara auto-puta,

and it turns out that translates into about 12,000 stations.

i pokazalo se da ih ima 12.000.

Ako je cena svake stanice milion dolara,

And at a million dollars each, that would be about 12 billion dollars.

dolazimo do iznosa od 12 milijardi dolara.

That's a lot of money.

To je mnogo novca.

But if you built the Alaskan pipeline today,

Ali kad biste danas gradili naftovod Aljaske,

that's half of what the Alaskan pipeline would cost.

ovo je tek polovina onoga koliko bi koštala izgradnja naftovoda.

But the real exciting vision that we see, truly, is home refueling,

Međutim naša uzbudljiva vizija je kućno punjenje,

much like recharging your laptop or recharging your cell phone.

otprilike kao punjenje vašeg laptopa ili mobilnog telefona.

So we're pretty excited about the future of hydrogen.

Tako da smo prilično uzbuđeni zbog budućnosti vodonika.

We think it's a question of not whether, but a question of when.

Mislimo da nije pitanje hoćemo li, već kada ćemo.

What we've targeted for ourselves --

Ono što smo sebi zadali kao cilj -

and we're making great progress toward this goal --

i postižemo zaista veliki napredak -

je dobiti pogonski sistem

is to have a propulsion system based on hydrogen and fuel cells,

zasnovan na vodoniku i pogonskim ćelijama,

designed and validated,

oblikovan i potvrđen,

that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine.

kako bi se mogao nadmetati sa motorom sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem -

We're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine,

govorimo o tome da motor sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem -

and doing it in terms of affordability at scale volumes,

učinimo zastarelim - i to na temelju kriterijuma cene,

veličine sposobnosti, perormansi i trajnosti.

its performance and its durability.

So that's what we're driving to for 2010.

Tome težimo u 2010. godini.

We haven't seen anything yet in our development work

Do sad nismo naišli ni na jedan razlog

koji bi nam rekao da je to nemoguće.

that says that isn't possible.

We actually think the future is going to be event-driven.

Zapravo mislimo da će budućnost pokretati događaji.

So since we can't predict the future,

A budući da ne možemo predvideti budućnost,

we want to spend a lot of our time trying to create that future.

želimo da potrošimo mnogo našeg vremena

u pokušaju da stvorimo tu budućnost.

I'm very, very intrigued

Veoma me intrigira činjenica da naši automobili i kamioni

by the fact that our cars and trucks sit idle 90 percent of the time:

nisu u pokretu čak 90 posto vremena:

they're parked all around us.

parkirani su, parkirani svuda oko nas.

Obično su parkirani na udaljenosti do 30 metara od svojih vlasnika.

They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them.

Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile

Ako razmotrite sposobnost automobila da stvori energiju

i uporedite je sa električnom mrežom Sjedinjenih Država,

and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States,

it turns out that the power in four percent of the automobiles

ispada da je energija u 4 posto automobila,

jednaka energiji električne mreže Sjedinjenih Država.

equals that of the electric grid of the US.

That's a huge power-generating capability,

To je ogromna sposobnost proizvodnje energije,

a mobile power-generating capability.

mobilna sposobnost proizvodnje energije.

And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity

A vodonik i pogonske ćelije nam pružaju priliku

to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked

da koristimo naše automobile i kamione i dok su parkirani

to generate electricity for the grid.

radi proizvodnje struje za mrežu.

We talked about swarm networks earlier.

Ranije smo govorili o rojevima mreža.

Talk about the ultimate swarm -- having all of the processors

O najvećem roju, u kom svi procesori

i svi automobili kad su parkirani

and all of the cars when they're sitting idle

čine deo globalne mreže koja daje sposobnost proračuna.

being part of a global grid for computing capability.

We find that premise quite exciting.

Mislimo da je ta premisa vrlo uzbudljiva.

Automobil tada postaje uređaj,

The automobile becomes, then, an appliance --

not in a commodity sense,

ne u smislu potrošne robe,

već kao uređaj, mobilni izvor energije, mobilna platforma

but an appliance, mobile power, mobile platform

for information and computing and communication,

za informacije, obradu podataka i komunikaciju,

as well as a form of transportation.

kao i vid transporta.

And the key to all of this is to make it affordable,

A ključ za sve ovo je da ga učinimo jeftinim,

to make it exciting,

uzbudljivim,

to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it.

da ga stavimo na put u kome postoji način da se zaradi na tom poslu.

And again, this is a pretty big march to take here.

Ovo je vrlo veliki marš koji ovde moramo učiniti.

A lot of people say:

Mnogi kažu,

kako spavate noću boreći se sa tolikim problemom?

How do you sleep at night

when you're wrestling with a problem of that magnitude?

Kažem im da spavam kao beba:

I tell them I sleep like a baby: I wake up crying every two hours.

budim se plačući svaka dva sata.

(Laughter)

Actually, the theme of this conference, I think,

Tema ove konferencije je, mislim, dotakla jedan od ključnih elemenata

has hit on one of the major keys to pull that off,

and that's relationships and working together.

potrebnih da uspemo u ovome, a to su međusobni odnosi i zajednički rad.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry -- wait, wait, wait. Larry, wait one sec.

Kris Anderson: Leri, Leri, čekaj, Leri sačekaj za momenat.

Imam mnogo pitanja koja bih ti mogao postaviti.

I've got so many questions I could ask you.

I just want to ask one.

Ali postaviću samo jedno.

You know, I could be wrong about this,

Znaš, možda nisam u pravu,

ali imam osećaj da javnost danas

but my sense is that in the public mind today,

ne misli da je GM tako ozbiljan kad je u pitanju zaštita okoline,

GM is not viewed as as serious about some of these environmental ideas

as some of your Japanese competitors, maybe even as Ford.

kao što su to neki vaši japanski konkurenti, možda čak i Ford.

Jeste li ozbiljni u vezi sa ovim,

Are you serious about it,

and not just, you know, when the consumers want it,

a ne samo, znaš, kad to kupci žele,

when the regulators force us to do it, we will go there?

kad nas zakoni teraju da pođemo u tom smeru?

Will you guys really try and show leadership on this?

Hoćete li zaista pokušati da pokažete vođstvo u ovome?

Larry Burns: Absolutely. We're absolutely serious.

Leri Barns: Da, apsolutno smo ozbiljni.

We're into this over a billion dollars already,

Uložili smo u ovo već više od milijardu dolara,

so I would hope people would think we're serious

i nadam se da ljudi misle da smo ozbiljni

kad trošimo toliko novca.

when we're spending that kind of money.

A drugo, to je fundamentalni poslovni predlog.

And secondly, it's a fundamental business proposition.

Biću iskren sa tobom:

I'll be honest with you;

we're into it for business growth opportunities.

u tome smo zbog mogućnosti poslovnog rasta.

We can't grow our business unless we solve these problems.

Ne možemo povećati posao ako ne rešimo te probleme.

The growth of the auto industry will be capped by sustainability issues

Rast auto industrije će ograničiti problemi održivosti

ako ne rešimo te probleme.

if we don't solve the problems.

A jedno prosto strateško načelo kaže:

And there's a simple principle of strategy that says:

uradi to sam, pre nego što ti to drugi urade.

Do unto yourself before others do unto you.

If we can see this possible future, others can, too.

Ako mi vidimo ovu moguću budućnost, vide je i drugi.

And we want to be the first one to create it, Chris.

A mi želimo da budemo prvi koji će je stvoriti.