Larry Burns: Reinventing the car

Prevoditelj: Davorin Jelačić Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

People love their automobiles.

Ljudi vole svoje automobile.

Oni nam omogućavaju da idemo gdje želimo kad to želimo.

They allow us to go where we want to when we want to.

Oni su oblik zabave,

They're a form of entertainment,

they're a form of art,

oblik umjetnosti,

a pride of ownership.

ponos vlasništva.

Songs are written about cars.

Postoje pjesme o automobilima.

Prince wrote a great song: "Little Red Corvette."

Prince je napisao sjajnu pjesmu: "Mala crvena Corvetta."

He didn't write "Little Red Laptop Computer" or "Little Red Dirt Devil."

Nije napisao "Mali crveni laptop" ili "Mali crveni vrag."

He wrote about a car.

Pisao je o autu.

One of my favorites has always been:

Meni je jedna od najdražih uvijek bila,

"Make Love to Your Man in a Chevy Van,"

"Vodi ljubav sa svojim čovjekom u Chevrolet kombiju,"

because that was my vehicle when I was in college.

jer je to bilo moje vozilo u koledžu.

The fact is, when we do our market research around the world,

Kada radimo istraživanje tržišta širom svijeta,

vidimo kod ljudi gotovo univerzalnu težnju

we see there's a nearly universal aspiration on the part of people

k posjedovanju automobila.

to own an automobile --

750 million people in the world today own a car.

750 milijuna ljudi u svijetu danas imaju automobil.

I reći ćete, hej, to je mnogo.

And you say, boy, that's a lot.

But you know what?

No znate što?

That's just 12 percent of the population.

To je samo 12 posto stanovništva.

Zaista moramo postaviti pitanje:

We really have to ask the question:

Može li svijet podnijeti taj broj automobila?

Can the world sustain that number of automobiles?

And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years,

A kad pogledamo prognoze za sljedećih 10, 15 ili 20 godina,

it looks like the world car park could grow

izgleda da bi svjetski vozni park mogao narasti na 1,1 milijardu vozila.

to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles.

Ako biste ih parkirali jedno do drugoga

If you park those end to end and wrap them around the Earth,

i omotali ih oko Zemlje,

that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.

ta vozila bi se oko Zemlje omotala 125 puta.

Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology

Automobilska tehnologija je ostvarila veliki napredak tijekom proteklih 100 godina.

over the last 100 years.

Auti su dramatično čišći, sigurniji, efikasniji

Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient

i radikalno dostupniji nego što su to bili prije 100 godina.

and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago.

But the fact remains:

Ali je činjenica:

the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the same.

Fundamentalni DNK automobila ostao je uglavnom isti.

If we were to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago,

Ako bismo danas izumili automobil, za razliku od onog otprije 100 godina,

knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product

znajući ono što znamo o problemima povezanim s tim proizvodom

and about the technologies that exist today,

i s obzirom na danas postojeće tehnologije,

što bismo stvorili?

what would we do?

We wanted something that was really affordable.

Željeli bismo nešto što si ljudi mogu priuštiti.

The fuel cell looked great:

Pogonska ćelija izgleda odlično:

one-tenth as many moving parts,

samo jedna desetina pokretnih dijelova

a fuel-cell propulsion system as an internal combustion engine,

i pogonski sustav ćelije kao motor s unutrašnjim izgaranjem --

and it emits just water.

a ispušta samo vodu.

And we wanted to take advantage of Moore's Law

A željeli bismo iskoristiti Mooreov zakon

s elektroničkim upravljanjem i softverom,

with electronic controls and software,

and we absolutely wanted our car to be connected.

i apsolutno želimo da nam auto bude povezan.

Pa smo se upustili u ponovno otkrivanje

So we embarked upon the reinvention around an electrochemical engine,

elektrokemijskog motora

the fuel cell,

pogonske ćelije, gdje je vodik nositelj energije.

and hydrogen as the energy carrier.

First was Autonomy.

Prvo je bio Autonomy.

Autonomy really set the vision for where we wanted to head.

Autonomy je definirao viziju kamo težimo.

We embodied all of the key components of a fuel-cell propulsion system.

Uvrstili smo sve ključne komponente sustava pogonske ćelije.

We then had Autonomy drivable with Hy-Wire,

Zatim smo pokrenuli naš Autonomy pomoću Hy-Wire pogona,

and we showed Hy-Wire here at this conference last year.

na lanjskoj konferenciji smo ovdje pokazali Hy-Wire.

Hy-Wire is the world's first drivable fuel cell,

Hy-Wire je prva svjetska upravljiva pogonska ćelija,

a zatim smo nastavili sa Sequelom.

and we have followed up that now with Sequel.

And Sequel truly is a real car.

Sequel je istinski sjajan automobil.

So if we could run the video --

Ako možemo pokrenuti video --

(Futuristic music)

[Reinventing the Automobile]

(Video) It truly is my great pleasure to introduce Sequel.

[Acceleration]

[Cruising]

[Steering]

[Braking]

But the real key question I'm sure that's on your mind:

Ali ključno pitanje koje vam je sigurno na pameti:

Where is the hydrogen going to come from?

odakle će doći taj vodik?

And secondly, when are these kinds of cars going to be available?

I drugo, kad će ovakvi automobili postati dostupni?

So let me talk about hydrogen first.

Pa dopustite da prvo govorim o vodiku.

The beauty of hydrogen is it can come from so many different sources:

Ljepota s vodikom je ta što može doći iz mnogo različitih izvora:

it can come from fossil fuels,

iz fosilnih goriva,

it can come from any way that you can create electricity,

možemo ga dobiti na sve načine na koje proizvodimo električnu energiju,

including renewables.

uključujući i obnovljive izvore.

And it can come from biofuels.

A može doći i iz biogoriva.

A to je uzbudljivo.

And that's quite exciting.

The vision here is to have each local community play to its natural strength

Ideja je

da svaka lokalna zajednica

koristi svoje prirodne prednosti

in creating the hydrogen.

u proizvodnji vodika.

A lot of hydrogen is produced today in the world.

Danas u svijetu proizvodimo mnogo vodika.

It's produced to get sulfur out of gasoline --

Proizvodi se da izvučemo sumpor iz benzina

which I find is somewhat ironic.

-- što mi djeluje pomalo ironično.

It's produced in the fertilizer industry;

Proizvodimo ga u industriji umjetnih gnojiva;

it's produced in the chemical manufacturing industry.

proizvodimo ga u kemijskoj prerađivačkoj industriji.

That hydrogen is being made

Vodik se proizvodi

because there's a good business reason for its use.

jer postoje dobri poslovni razlozi za njegovu upotrebu.

But it tells us that we know how to create it,

Ali to nam govori da ga znamo proizvesti,

znamo ga proizvesti troškovno učinkovito,

we know how to create it cost-effectively,

we know how to handle it safely.

znamo njime sigurno baratati.

We did an analysis

Napravili smo analizu

where you would have a station in each city

po kojoj biste imali postaju u svakom gradu

with each of the 100 largest cities in the United States,

u svakom od 100 najvećih gradova u Sjedinjenim Državama,

and located the stations

i smjestili smo postaje tako

so you'd be no more than two miles from a station at any time.

da ne biste bili udaljeniji od tri kilometra od postaje ni u jednom trenu.

We put one every 25 miles on the freeway,

Stavili smo postaju na svakih 40 kilometara auto ceste,

i pokazalo se da je riječ o 12.000 postaja.

and it turns out that translates into about 12,000 stations.

And at a million dollars each, that would be about 12 billion dollars.

Po cijeni od milijun dolara po postaji,

dolazimo do iznosa od 12 milijardi dolara.

To je mnogo novca.

That's a lot of money.

But if you built the Alaskan pipeline today,

Ali kad biste danas gradili naftovod Aljaske,

that's half of what the Alaskan pipeline would cost.

ovo je tek polovica onoga što bi koštala izgradnja naftovoda.

No naša stvarno uzbudljiva vizija je kućno punjenje,

But the real exciting vision that we see, truly, is home refueling,

much like recharging your laptop or recharging your cell phone.

otprilike kao punjene vašeg laptopa ili mobitela.

So we're pretty excited about the future of hydrogen.

Tako da smo prilično uzbuđeni budućnošću vodika.

We think it's a question of not whether, but a question of when.

Mislimo da nije pitanje hoćemo li, već kada ćemo.

What we've targeted for ourselves --

Ono što smo sebi zadali kao cilj

and we're making great progress toward this goal --

-- i postižemo zaista veliki napredak --

je dobiti pogonski sustav

is to have a propulsion system based on hydrogen and fuel cells,

koji se temelji na vodiku i pogonskim ćelijama,

designed and validated,

oblikovati ga i potvrditi,

that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine.

kako bi se mogao nadmetati s motorom na unutarnje sagorijevanje --

govorimo o tome da motor s unutarnjim sagorijevanjem učinimo zastarjelim --

We're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine,

i to na temelju kriterija cijene,

and doing it in terms of affordability at scale volumes,

volumena, izvedbe i trajnosti.

its performance and its durability.

So that's what we're driving to for 2010.

Tome težimo u 2010. godini.

We haven't seen anything yet in our development work

Nismo naišli ni na što u razvijanju ovoga

što bi nam reklo da je to nemoguće.

that says that isn't possible.

We actually think the future is going to be event-driven.

Zapravo mislimo da će budućnost pokretati događaji.

So since we can't predict the future,

A kako ne možemo predvidjeti budućnost,

we want to spend a lot of our time trying to create that future.

želimo trošiti mnogo našeg vremena

u pokušaju da stvorimo tu budućnost.

I'm very, very intrigued

Jako me intrigira činjenica da naši auti i kamioni

by the fact that our cars and trucks sit idle 90 percent of the time:

sjede besposleno 90 posto vremena:

they're parked all around us.

parkirani su, parkirani svuda oko nas.

Obično su parkirani na udaljenosti do 30 metara od svojih vlasnika.

They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them.

Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile

Ako razmotrite sposobnost automobila da stvori energiju

i usporedite je s električnom mrežom Sjedinjenih Država,

and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States,

it turns out that the power in four percent of the automobiles

pokazuje se da je energija u 4 posto automobila,

jednaka energiji električne mreže Sjedinjenih Država.

equals that of the electric grid of the US.

That's a huge power-generating capability,

To je ogromna sposobnost proizvodnje energije,

a mobile power-generating capability.

mobilna sposobnost proizvodnje energije.

And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity

A vodik i pogonske ćelije na pružaju priliku

to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked

da koristimo naše aute i kamione dok su parkirani

to generate electricity for the grid.

da proizvode struju za mrežu.

We talked about swarm networks earlier.

Ranije smo govorili o mrežama-rojevima.

Talk about the ultimate swarm -- having all of the processors

O najvećem roju, u kojem su svi procesori

i svi automobili kad su parkirani

and all of the cars when they're sitting idle

dio globalne mreže koja daje računalni kapacitet.

being part of a global grid for computing capability.

We find that premise quite exciting.

Mislimo da je ta premisa vrlo uzbudljiva.

Automobil tada postaje uređaj,

The automobile becomes, then, an appliance --

not in a commodity sense,

ne u smislu potrošne robe,

već kao uređaj, mobilni izvor energije, mobilna platforma

but an appliance, mobile power, mobile platform

for information and computing and communication,

za informacije, obradu podataka i komunikaciju,

as well as a form of transportation.

kao i vid transporta.

And the key to all of this is to make it affordable,

A ključ za sve ovo je da učinimo jeftinim,

to make it exciting,

uzbudljivim,

to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it.

da ga stavimo na putanju na kojoj postoji način da se zaradi u tom poslu.

And again, this is a pretty big march to take here.

Ovo je vrlo veliki marš kojega moramo poduzeti.

A lot of people say:

Mnogi kažu,

kako spavate noću boreći se s problemom tog reda veličine?

How do you sleep at night

when you're wrestling with a problem of that magnitude?

Kažem im da spavam kao beba:

I tell them I sleep like a baby: I wake up crying every two hours.

Budim se plačući svaka dva sata.

(Laughter)

Tema ove konferencije je, mislim, dotaknula jedan od ključnih elemenata potrebnih da uspijemo u ovome --

Actually, the theme of this conference, I think,

has hit on one of the major keys to pull that off,

and that's relationships and working together.

a to su odnosi i zajednički rad.

Hvala vam lijepa.

Thank you very much.

(Pljesak).

(Applause)

Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry -- wait, wait, wait. Larry, wait one sec.

Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry, čekaj, čekaj, čekaj, čekaj, Larry, čekaj, čekaj sekundu.

Imam puno pitanja koje bih ti mogao postaviti.

I've got so many questions I could ask you.

I just want to ask one.

Ali postavit ću samo jedno.

You know, I could be wrong about this,

Znaš, možda nisam u pravu,

ali imam osjećaj da javnost danas,

but my sense is that in the public mind today,

ne misli da je GM tako ozbiljan kad je u pitanju zaštita okoliša

GM is not viewed as as serious about some of these environmental ideas

as some of your Japanese competitors, maybe even as Ford.

kao što su neki vaši japanski konkurenti, možda čak i Ford.

Jeste li ozbiljni u ovome,

Are you serious about it,

and not just, you know, when the consumers want it,

a ne samo, znaš, kad to kupci žele,

when the regulators force us to do it, we will go there?

kad nas zakoni tjeraju da pođemo u tom smjeru?

Will you guys really try and show leadership on this?

Hoćete li vi zaista pokušati pokazati vodstvo u ovome?

Larry Burns: Da, apsolutno smo ozbiljni.

Larry Burns: Absolutely. We're absolutely serious.

Uložili smo u ovo već više od milijardu dolara,

We're into this over a billion dollars already,

so I would hope people would think we're serious

i nadam se da ljudi misle da smo ozbiljni

kad trošimo toliko novca.

when we're spending that kind of money.

A drugo, to je fundamentalno dobar posao.

And secondly, it's a fundamental business proposition.

I'll be honest with you;

Bit ću iskren s tobom:

we're into it for business growth opportunities.

u tome smo zbog mogućnosti poslovnog rasta.

Ne možemo povećati naš posao ako ne riješimo te probleme.

We can't grow our business unless we solve these problems.

The growth of the auto industry will be capped by sustainability issues

Rast auto industrije će ograničiti problemi održivosti

ako ne riješimo te probleme.

if we don't solve the problems.

A jednostavno strateško načelo kaže:

And there's a simple principle of strategy that says:

Do unto yourself before others do unto you.

Uradi to sam, prije nego što ti drugi urade.

If we can see this possible future, others can, too.

Ako mi vidimo ovu moguću budućnost, vide je i drugi.

And we want to be the first one to create it, Chris.

A mi želimo biti prvi koji će je stvoriti, Chris.