Larry Burns: Reinventing the car

譯者: Dxm Online大小媒體 審譯者: Joyce Lynn

People love their automobiles.

人們很愛自己的車子

車子讓我們隨心所欲到各地去

They allow us to go where we want to when we want to.

車子既是娛樂、

They're a form of entertainment,

they're a form of art,

也是藝術、

a pride of ownership.

更象徵一種擁有的榮耀

Songs are written about cars.

有人爲車子寫了許多歌

Prince wrote a great song: "Little Red Corvette."

音樂鬼才 Prince 寫了一首很棒的「小紅跑車」

He didn't write "Little Red Laptop Computer" or "Little Red Dirt Devil."

他並沒有寫一首「小紅筆電」或「小紅吸塵器」的歌

He wrote about a car.

而是寫關於車子的歌

One of my favorites has always been:

其中我最愛的一首歌就是

"Make Love to Your Man in a Chevy Van,"

「跟妳的男人在雪佛蘭小貨車上交歡」

because that was my vehicle when I was in college.

因為那就是我在大學時代開的車

The fact is, when we do our market research around the world,

事實上，當我們在世界各地進行市場調查時

發現全世界的人幾乎都有個共同的渴望

we see there's a nearly universal aspiration on the part of people

那就是擁有一輛車子

to own an automobile --

750 million people in the world today own a car.

今天世界上有七億五千萬人擁有汽車

噢！天啊！你也許會說那真是多啊！

And you say, boy, that's a lot.

But you know what?

但是你知道嗎？

That's just 12 percent of the population.

那只佔了總人口數的百分之十二而已

我們真的必須問自己

We really have to ask the question:

這世界真的受得了那麼多的車子嗎？

Can the world sustain that number of automobiles?

And if you look at projections over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years,

如果你看未來十年、十五年至二十年的預測

it looks like the world car park could grow

全球的停車場看起來會成長到可以容納11億輛汽車

to on the order of 1.1 billion vehicles.

如果你把他們一輛接一輛停在一起

If you park those end to end and wrap them around the Earth,

然後讓他們環繞地球

that would stretch around the Earth 125 times.

大概可以繞地球125圈

Now, we've made great progress with automobile technology

過去一百年來汽車技術有長足的進步

over the last 100 years.

現在的汽車比一百年前更乾淨、更安全、更有效率

Cars are dramatically cleaner, dramatically safer, more efficient

而且更讓人買得起

and radically more affordable than they were 100 years ago.

But the fact remains:

但是事實上

the fundamental DNA of the automobile has stayed pretty much the same.

汽車的基本基因其實沒有改變太多

If we were to reinvent the automobile today, rather than 100 years ago,

如果今天我們想要重新改造汽車，而不是像一百年前那樣的話

knowing what we know about the issues associated with our product

就我們對汽車相關問題的了解

and about the technologies that exist today,

以及對今日現有汽車技術的了解

我們會怎麼做呢?

what would we do?

We wanted something that was really affordable.

我們想要一種真正負擔得起的車子

The fuel cell looked great:

燃料電池看來很棒

one-tenth as many moving parts,

只占現有汽車十分之一的運轉零件

a fuel-cell propulsion system as an internal combustion engine,

並以燃料電池推進系統替代內燃機

and it emits just water.

而且只排放水

And we wanted to take advantage of Moore's Law

我們會利用摩爾定律

加上電子控制與軟體

with electronic controls and software,

and we absolutely wanted our car to be connected.

徹底讓我們的車子能夠被網路連結

於是我們開始重新改造

So we embarked upon the reinvention around an electrochemical engine,

一組電氣化學引擎

the fuel cell,

燃料電池、以氫氣作為電力載體

and hydrogen as the energy carrier.

First was Autonomy.

首先是通用汽車的 Autonomy 氫燃料電池概念車

Autonomy really set the vision for where we wanted to head.

Autonomy 讓我們看到汽車未來的方向

We embodied all of the key components of a fuel-cell propulsion system.

我們組裝了燃料電池推進系統的主要配件

We then had Autonomy drivable with Hy-Wire,

接著讓 Autonomy 概念車變成真正可以駕駛的 Hy-Wire 車款

and we showed Hy-Wire here at this conference last year.

去年我們在這個研討會上介紹了 Hy-Wire

Hy-Wire is the world's first drivable fuel cell,

Hy-Wire 是全世界第一輛可以上路的燃料電池汽車

接著我們又研發出現在的 Sequel 氫燃料電池汽車

and we have followed up that now with Sequel.

And Sequel truly is a real car.

而 Sequel 是一輛真真正正的汽車了

So if we could run the video --

如果我們可以來看一下影片

(Futuristic music)

[Reinventing the Automobile]

(Video) It truly is my great pleasure to introduce Sequel.

[Acceleration]

[Cruising]

[Steering]

[Braking]

But the real key question I'm sure that's on your mind:

不過我相信你現在最想知道的是

Where is the hydrogen going to come from?

氫氣要從哪裡來呢？

And secondly, when are these kinds of cars going to be available?

第二個問題是這種汽車何時才會上市呢？

So let me talk about hydrogen first.

首先，先讓我來談談氫氣

The beauty of hydrogen is it can come from so many different sources:

氫氣的優勢在於它可以被取自許多不同的來源

it can come from fossil fuels,

可以來自石化燃料

it can come from any way that you can create electricity,

或任何發電方式

including renewables.

包括再生能源

And it can come from biofuels.

也可取自生質燃料

這真的令人相當振奮

And that's quite exciting.

The vision here is to have each local community play to its natural strength

我們的願景是

讓各個在地社區

發揮其天然的優勢

in creating the hydrogen.

來製造氫氣

A lot of hydrogen is produced today in the world.

現在世界上已經製造了許多氫氣

It's produced to get sulfur out of gasoline --

從汽油中提煉硫磺時就會產生氫氣

which I find is somewhat ironic.

我覺得這有點好笑

It's produced in the fertilizer industry;

肥料業也會產生氫氣

it's produced in the chemical manufacturing industry.

化學製造業也會產生氫氣

That hydrogen is being made

我們製造氫氣是因為

because there's a good business reason for its use.

它有商業用途

But it tells us that we know how to create it,

但這也代表我們知道如何製造氫氣

我們知道如何以划算的方法製造氫氣

we know how to create it cost-effectively,

we know how to handle it safely.

我們也知道如何安全地處理氫氣

We did an analysis

我們做了一個分析

where you would have a station in each city

在每個城市都設一個加氣站

with each of the 100 largest cities in the United States,

在全美國的前一百個大城市

and located the stations

設置許多加氣站

so you'd be no more than two miles from a station at any time.

每個站距離不會超過兩英哩

We put one every 25 miles on the freeway,

在高速公路上，每二十五英哩就設一個站

最後評估的結果是總共需要 12000 個站

and it turns out that translates into about 12,000 stations.

And at a million dollars each, that would be about 12 billion dollars.

如果設一個站需要花費 100 萬美金

那全部的設置將花費 120 億美金

那是非常龐大的一筆錢

That's a lot of money.

But if you built the Alaskan pipeline today,

但假設今天你要建設阿拉斯加大油管的話

that's half of what the Alaskan pipeline would cost.

120 億只是建設阿拉斯加大油管一半的費用

但是，令我們真正感到振奮的願景是，在家充氣

But the real exciting vision that we see, truly, is home refueling,

much like recharging your laptop or recharging your cell phone.

有點像是你在家充筆電或充手機

So we're pretty excited about the future of hydrogen.

所以我們真的對氫氣的未來滿懷期待

We think it's a question of not whether, but a question of when.

我們認為問題不是要不要，而是何時？

What we've targeted for ourselves --

我們為自己設定的目標是

and we're making great progress toward this goal --

而目前已經有相當大的進展了

就是製造出一個推進系統

is to have a propulsion system based on hydrogen and fuel cells,

一個以氫氣和燃料電池為動力的推進系統

designed and validated,

設計完成並且經過認可

that can go head-to-head with the internal combustion engine.

可以與內燃機一較高下

我們現在談的是要淘汰掉內燃機

We're talking about obsoleting the internal combustion engine,

且務必讓人人都買得起

and doing it in terms of affordability at scale volumes,

提升汽車的技術、性能及耐力

its performance and its durability.

So that's what we're driving to for 2010.

這就是我們在 2010 年希望達成的目標

We haven't seen anything yet in our development work

我們在研發工作的過程中

還沒有預見任何不可能的事情

that says that isn't possible.

We actually think the future is going to be event-driven.

我們其實認為未來的設計將會是「事件驅動」的方式

So since we can't predict the future,

既然我們無法預測未來

we want to spend a lot of our time trying to create that future.

我們想要投入大量的時間

創造出那個未來

I'm very, very intrigued

汽車和卡車有百分之九十的時候都是閒置的

by the fact that our cars and trucks sit idle 90 percent of the time:

這點讓我非常感興趣

they're parked all around us.

車子全都停放在我們四周

通常停放在離主人一百英呎之內

They're usually parked within 100 feet of the people that own them.

Now, if you take the power-generating capability of an automobile

如果你將汽車的發電能力

跟美國的電力網做比較

and you compare that to the electric grid in the United States,

it turns out that the power in four percent of the automobiles

你會發現汽車所產生電力的百分之四

等於美國發電網所提供的電力

equals that of the electric grid of the US.

That's a huge power-generating capability,

那是相當大的發電能力啊！

a mobile power-generating capability.

是一個會移動的發電能力

And hydrogen and fuel cells give us that opportunity

而氫氣和燃料電池讓我們有機會

to actually use our cars and trucks when they're parked

在汽車和卡車閒置時還能實際利用它們

to generate electricity for the grid.

爲發電網提供電力

We talked about swarm networks earlier.

早先我們談過群體網絡

Talk about the ultimate swarm -- having all of the processors

談過最終群體，以及讓所有的運算處理器

和所有閒置的汽車

and all of the cars when they're sitting idle

成為全球電腦運算網的一環

being part of a global grid for computing capability.

We find that premise quite exciting.

我們認為這個假設很令人振奮

如此一來，汽車就會變成一種電器用品

The automobile becomes, then, an appliance --

not in a commodity sense,

不只是一個商品

而是一種用品、行動電力、行動資訊平台

but an appliance, mobile power, mobile platform

for information and computing and communication,

也是一種電腦運算和電信通訊平台

as well as a form of transportation.

更是一種交通工具

And the key to all of this is to make it affordable,

最重要的關鍵就是要讓人買得起

to make it exciting,

讓人期待

to get it on a pathway where there's a way to make money doing it.

讓它朝花錢可以做得出來的方向發展

And again, this is a pretty big march to take here.

再者，這還有很長的一大段路要走

A lot of people say:

很多人會說

當你忙著解決這麼重大的問題時，晚上怎麼睡得著啊！

How do you sleep at night

when you're wrestling with a problem of that magnitude?

我說我睡得像嬰兒一樣

I tell them I sleep like a baby: I wake up crying every two hours.

每兩個鐘頭就哭醒過來一次

(Laughter)

其實我覺得這個研討會的主題，真的有碰觸到一個解決這問題的關鍵

Actually, the theme of this conference, I think,

has hit on one of the major keys to pull that off,

and that's relationships and working together.

那就是人際關係和團結合作

謝謝大家！

Thank you very much.

(掌聲)

(Applause)

Chris Anderson: Larry, Larry -- wait, wait, wait. Larry, wait one sec.

克里斯安德森：Larry，等等，等一下

我有好多問題要問你

I've got so many questions I could ask you.

I just want to ask one.

但我只想要請教一個問題

You know, I could be wrong about this,

你知道的，我或許有可能是錯的

但是我認為在今日大眾的心裡面

but my sense is that in the public mind today,

都認為比起日本的競爭者，甚至是福特車廠

GM is not viewed as as serious about some of these environmental ideas

as some of your Japanese competitors, maybe even as Ford.

通用汽車對環保議題並不太注重

你是認真的嗎？

Are you serious about it,

and not just, you know, when the consumers want it,

你們做這些並不是因為消費者的需求

when the regulators force us to do it, we will go there?

也不是為了應付政府法規，才朝那方向去做吧？

Will you guys really try and show leadership on this?

通用汽車真的想努力成為這方面的領導者嗎？

Larry Burns: 是的，我們絕對很認真

Larry Burns: Absolutely. We're absolutely serious.

我們已經投資超過十億美金在這上面了

We're into this over a billion dollars already,

so I would hope people would think we're serious

所以我希望大家會知道我們是認真的

尤其是當我們已經投進了這麼龐大的資金

when we're spending that kind of money.

再說，這是十分重大的商業計畫

And secondly, it's a fundamental business proposition.

I'll be honest with you;

我得老實跟你說

we're into it for business growth opportunities.

我們確實是看到了成長的商機才投入的

如果不解決這些問題 ，我們的業務就無法成長

We can't grow our business unless we solve these problems.

The growth of the auto industry will be capped by sustainability issues

如果不解決這些問題

汽車產業的成長將被人類永續生存的問題給限制住

if we don't solve the problems.

有個很簡單的策略原則是這樣說的

And there's a simple principle of strategy that says:

Do unto yourself before others do unto you.

自重而後人重

If we can see this possible future, others can, too.

如果我們可以看見未來的願景，其他人一定也看得見

And we want to be the first one to create it, Chris.

Chris，我們想成為第一個創造那個未來的人