Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of growth

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Aniko Kovac Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

That's how we traveled in the year 1900.

Ovako smo putovali 1900.

That's an open buggy. It doesn't have heating.

Ovo su otvorene kočije. U njima nema grejanja.

It doesn't have air conditioning.

Nema ni klime.

That horse is pulling it along

Konj ih vuče

at one percent of the speed of sound,

brzinom jednog procenta brzine zvuka,

and the rutted dirt road

a neravni zemljani put

turns into a quagmire of mud anytime it rains.

pretvara se u blatnjavu močvaru svaki put kada padne kiša.

That's a Boeing 707.

Ovo je boing 707.

Only 60 years later, it travels

Samo 60 godina kasnije, on putuje

at 80 percent of the speed of sound,

brzinom od 80% brzine svetlosti.

and we don't travel any faster today

Ni danas ne putujemo brže od toga

because commercial supersonic air travel

jer komercijalni supersonični letovi

turned out to be a bust.

nisu bili uspešni.

So I started wondering and pondering,

Zato sam počeo da se pitam i da razmatram

could it be that the best years of American economic growth

da li je moguće da su najbolje godine američkog ekonomskog rasta

are behind us?

iza nas?

And that leads to the suggestion, maybe economic growth

To vodi do pretpostavke da je možda ekonomski rast

is almost over.

skoro stigao do kraja.

Some of the reasons for this are not really very controversial.

Neki od razloga za ovo i nisu toliko sporni.

There are four headwinds that are just hitting

Postoje četiri čeona vetra koja duvaju

the American economy in the face.

američkoj ekonomiji u lice.

They're demographics, education, debt and inequality.

To su demografija, obrazovanje, dugovanje i nejednakost.

They're powerful enough to cut growth in half.

Oni su dovoljno moćni da prepolove razvoj.

So we need a lot of innovation to offset this decline.

I zato su nam potrebne mnoge inovacije kako bismo nadoknadili ovo smanjenje.

And here's my theme: Because of the headwinds,

Ovo je moja tema: zbog čeonih vetrova

if innovation continues to be as powerful as it has been

inovacije su i dalje onoliko moćne koliko su bile

in the last 150 years, growth is cut in half.

proteklih 150 godina, ali je rast prepolovljen.

If innovation is less powerful,

Ukoliko su inovacije manje moćne,

invents less great, wonderful things,

stvaramo ne toliko velike, sjajne stvari,

then growth is going to be even lower than half of history.

onda će rast biti još niži nego tokom polovine istorije.

Now here's eight centuries of economic growth.

Evo osam vekova ekonomskog rasta.

The vertical axis is just percent per year of growth,

Vertikalna osa predstavlja godišnji rast,

zero percent a year, one percent a year, two percent a year.

nula procenata godišnje, jedan, dva procenta godišnje.

The white line is for the U.K., and then the U.S.

Bela linija predstavlja Britaniju, a onda SAD

takes over as the leading nation in the year 1900,

preuzimaju vođstvo 1900.

when the line switches to red.

kada linija prelazi u crvenu.

You'll notice that, for the first four centuries,

Primetićete da prva četiri veka,

there's hardly any growth at all, just 0.2 percent.

skoro i da nema rasta, samo 0,2 procenata.

Then growth gets better and better.

Rast postalje sve bolji i bolji.

It maxes out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,

Dostiže maksimum tokom 1930-ih, '40-ih i '50-ih

and then it starts slowing down, and here's a cautionary note.

i onda počinje da usporava i evo upozorenja.

That last downward notch in the red line

Poslednji stepenik nadole

is not actual data.

nisu stvarni podaci.

That is a forecast that I made six years ago

To je predviđanje koje sam načinio pre šest godina,

that growth would slow down to 1.3 percent.

prema kome će se rast usporiti na 1,3 procenata.

But you know what the actual facts are?

Ali da li znate kakve su stvarne činjenice?

You know what the growth in per-person income has been

Znate li koliki je rast prihoda po osobi bio

in the United States in the last six years?

u SAD proteklih šest godina?

Negative.

Negativan.

This led to a fantasy.

Ovo je dovelo do maštarija.

What if I try to fit a curved line to this historical record?

Šta ako iscrtamo krivu preko ovih istorijskih podataka?

I can make the curved line end anywhere I wanted,

Mogu da završim ovu krivu gde god želim,

but I decided I would end it at 0.2,

ali sam odlučio da se ona završi na 0,2,

just like the U.K. growth for the first four centuries.

baš kao rast u Britaniji tokom prva četiri veka.

Now the history that we've achieved is that we've grown

Istorijski, ono što smo postigli jeste rast

at 2.0 percent per year over the whole period,

od 2,0 procenta godišnje tokom čitavog perioda

1891 to 2007,

od 1891. do 2007.

and remember it's been a little bit negative since 2007.

i setite se da je taj rast blago negativan od 2007.

But if growth slows down,

Ali ako se rast uspori,

instead of doubling our standard of living every generation,

umesto udvostručenja životnog standarda svake generacije,

Americans in the future can't expect to be twice as well off as their parents,

u budućnosti Amerikanci ne mogu očekivati da žive duplo bolje od svojih roditelja

or even a quarter [more well off than] their parents.

niti čak četvrtinu bolje od svojih roditelja.

Now we're going to change and look at the level of per capita income.

Sada ćemo pogledati nivo prihoda po glavi stanovnika.

The vertical axis now is thousands of dollars in today's prices.

Vertikalna osa su hiljade dolara u današnjoj vrednosti.

You'll notice that in 1891, over on the left,

Primetićete da smo 1891., s leve strane,

we were at about 5,000 dollars.

bili na oko 5.000 dolara.

Today we're at about 44,000 dollars of total output

Danas smo na oko 44.000 dolara ukupnog proizvoda

per member of the population.

po glavi stanovnika.

Now what if we could achieve that historic

Šta ako bismo mogli da postignemo taj istorijski rast

two-percent growth for the next 70 years?

od dva procenata u sledećih 70 godina?

Well, it's a matter of arithmetic.

To je pitanje aritmetike.

Two-percent growth quadruples your standard of living in 70 years.

Dvoprocentni rast vam učetvorostručuje životni standard za 70 godina.

That means we'd go from 44,000 to 180,000.

To znači da bismo sa 44.000 došli na 180.000.

Well, we're not going to do that,

To se neće desiti,

and the reason is the headwinds.

a razlog tome su čeoni vetrovi.

The first headwind is demographics.

Prvi čeoni vetar je demografija.

It's a truism that your standard of living

Istina je da životni standard

rises faster than productivity, rises faster than output per hour,

raste brže od produktivnosti, raste brže od prihoda po satu,

if hours per person increased.

ukoliko se sati po osobi povećaju.

And we got that gift back in the '70s and '80s

Tu priliku smo dobili '70-ih i '80-ih

when women entered the labor force.

kada su se žene priključile radnoj snazi.

But now it's turned around.

Ali sada je situacija obrnuta.

Now hours per person are shrinking,

Sati po osobi se smanjuju,

first because of the retirement of the baby boomers,

prvo zbog penzionisanja ljudi iz perioda "bejbi buma",

and second because there's been a very significant

drugo zato što je značajan broj

dropping out of the labor force of prime age adult males

radno sposobnih muškaraca istupilo iz radne snage,

who are in the bottom half of the educational distribution.

a oni su na donjoj polovini obrazovne distribucije.

The next headwind is education.

Drugi čeoni vetar je obrazovanje.

We've got problems all over our educational system

Imamo probleme širom obrazovnog sistema

despite Race to the Top.

uprkos "trci do vrha".

In college, we've got cost inflation in higher education

Na fakultetu, suočavamo se sa inflacijom troškova visokog obrazovanja

that dwarfs cost inflation in medical care.

koje sprečava rast inflacije u zdravstvu.

We have in higher education a trillion dollars of student debt,

U visokom obrazovanju imamo bilione dolara studentskog duga

and our college completion rate

i stopa završavanja studija

is 15 points, 15 percentage points below Canada.

nam je 15 poena, 15 procentnih poena ispod Kanade.

We have a lot of debt.

Imamo mnogo dugova.

Our economy grew from 2000 to 2007

Naša ekonomija je rasla od 2000. do 2007.

on the back of consumers massively overborrowing.

oslanjajući se na masivno zaduživanje potrošača.

Consumers paying off that debt is one of the main reasons

Otplata tog duga od strane potrošača je jedan od glavnih razloga

why our economic recovery is so sluggish today.

zbog čega je naš ekonomski oporavak toliko usporen danas.

And everybody of course knows

I svako od nas naravno zna

that the federal government debt is growing

da se dug federalne vlade uvećava

as a share of GDP at a very rapid rate,

velikom brzinom kao udeo BDP-a

and the only way that's going to stop is some combination

i jedini način da to zaustavimo jeste neka kombinacija

of faster growth in taxes or slower growth in entitlements,

ubrzanog povećanja poreza i usporavanja rasta olakšica,

also called transfer payments.

poznatih kao transferno plaćanje države.

And that gets us down from the 1.5,

I to nas dovodi sa 1,5,

where we've reached for education, down to 1.3.

kada smo stigli do obrazovanja, na 1,3.

And then we have inequality.

A onda imamo nejednakost.

Over the 15 years before the financial crisis,

Tokom 15 godina pre finansijske krize

the growth rate of the bottom 99 percent

stopa rasta donjih 99 procenata

of the income distribution was half a point slower

distribucije prihoda je bila za 0,5 poena sporija

than the averages we've been talking about before.

nego proseci o kojima smo malopre govorili.

All the rest went to the top one percent.

Ostatak je pripao gornjem jednom procentu.

So that brings us down to 0.8.

To nas dovodi do 0,8.

And that 0.8 is the big challenge.

I tih 0,8 je veliki izazov.

Are we going to grow at 0.8?

Da li ćemo rasti na 0,8?

If so, that's going to require that our inventions

Ako hoćemo, to će zahtevati da naši pronalasci

are as important as the ones that happened

budu barem onoliko važni koliko oni koji su se desili

over the last 150 years.

tokom proteklih 150 godina.

So let's see what some of those inventions were.

Hajde da vidimo neke od tih izuma.

If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,

Ako ste 1875. želeli da čitate noću

you needed to have an oil or a gas lamp.

morali ste da imate uljanu lampu ili lampu na gas.

They created pollution, they created odors,

Zagađivale su vazduh, mirisale su neprijatno

they were hard to control, the light was dim,

i bilo ih je teško kontrolisati, svetlo je bilo slabo

and they were a fire hazard.

i postojala je opasnost od požara.

By 1929, electric light was everywhere.

Do 1929. električno osvetljenje nalazilo se svuda.

We had the vertical city, the invention of the elevator.

Gradovi su rasli u visinu, izumeli smo lift.

Central Manhattan became possible.

Centar Menhetna je postao moguć.

And then, in addition to that, at the same time,

I tada, uz sve to, istovremeno,

hand tools were replaced by massive electric tools

ručni alati su zamenjeni masivnim električnim alatima

and hand-powered electric tools,

i električnim alatima na ručni pogon,

all achieved by electricity.

sve je to omogućeno strujom.

Electricity was also very helpful in liberating women.

Struja je imala značajnu ulogu i u oslobađanju žena.

Women, back in the late 19th century,

Žene su u kasnom 19. veku

spent two days a week doing the laundry.

provodile dva dana nedeljno perući veš.

They did it on a scrub board.

Radile su to uz pomoć daske za ribanje.

Then they had to hang the clothes out to dry.

Zatim su morale da okače rublje da se suši.

Then they had to bring them in.

Zatim da ga pokupe.

The whole thing took two days out of the seven-day week.

Čitava stvar je oduzimala dva od sedam dana u nedelji.

And then we had the electric washing machine.

A onda smo dobili električnu mašinu za pranje veša.

And by 1950, they were everywhere.

I do 1950., one su bile svuda.

But the women still had to shop every day,

Ali žene su i dalje morale svaki dan u kupovinu,

but no they didn't, because electricity

ali ne, nisu morale, jer je struja

brought us the electric refrigerator.

donela i električni frižider.

Back in the late 19th century, the only source of heat in most homes

Krajem 19. veka, jedini izvor toplote u većini domova

was a big fireplace in the kitchen that was used for cooking and heating.

je bio veliki kamin u kuhinji koji se koristio za kuvanje i grejanje.

The bedrooms were cold. They were unheated.

Spavaće sobe su bile hladne. Njih nisu grejali.

But by 1929, certainly by 1950,

Ali do 1929., do 1950. sigurno,

we had central heating everywhere.

svuda smo imali centralno grejanje.

What about the internal combustion engine,

A šta je sa motorom na unutrašnje sagorevanje

which was invented in 1879?

koji je izmišljen 1879.?

In America, before the motor vehicle,

U Americi, pre motornih vozila,

transportation depended entirely on the urban horse,

prevoz je zavisio u potpunosti od gradskih konja

which dropped, without restraint,

koji su ispuštali, bez ograničenja,

25 to 50 pounds of manure on the streets every day

između 10 i 20 kilograma đubriva na ulice svakog dana

together with a gallon of urine.

zajedno sa oko 3 litre urina.

That comes out at five to 10 tons daily

To se svodi na 3 do 6 tona dnevno

per square mile in cities.

po kvadratnom kilometru u gradovima.

Those horses also ate up fully one quarter of American agricultural land.

Ti konji su takođe jeli četvrtinu proizvoda američkog poljoprivrednog zemljišta.

That's the percentage of American agricultural land

To je procenat američkog poljoprivrednog zemljišta

it took to feed the horses.

potreban da se ti konji nahrane.

Of course, when the motor vehicle was invented,

Naravno, kada su izumeli motorna vozila,

and it became almost ubiquitous by 1929,

a ona su bila skoro sveprisutna do 1929.,

that agricultural land could be used for human consumption

ta poljoprivredna zemljišta su se mogla upotrebiti za ljudsku potrošnju

or for export.

ili za izvoz.

And here's an interesting ratio: Starting from zero in 1900,

Evo jedne interesantne srazmere: počevši od nule 1900.,

only 30 years later, the ratio of motor vehicles to the number of households

samo 30 godina kasnije, procenat motornih vozila prema broju domaćinstava

in the United States reached 90 percent in just 30 years.

u SAD dostigao je 90 procenata za samo 30 godina.

Back before the turn of the century,

U prethodnom veku

women had another problem.

žene su imale još jedan problem.

All the water for cooking, cleaning and bathing

Vodu potrebnu za kuvanje, čišćenje i kupanje

had to be carried in buckets and pails in from the outside.

morale su da donose u kofama i kantama.

It's a historical fact that in 1885,

Istorijska je činjenica da je 1885.

the average North Carolina housewife

prosečna domaćica iz Severne Karoline

walked 148 miles a year carrying 35 tons of water.

hodala 238 kilometara godišnje noseći 35 tona vode.

But by 1929, cities around the country

Ali do 1929. gradovi širom zemlje

had put in underground water pipes.

uveli su podzemni vodovod.

They had put in underground sewer pipes,

Postavili su kanalizacione cevi

and as a result, one of the great scourges of the late 19th century,

i kao rezultat toga, neke od najvećih pošasti 19. veka,

waterborne diseases like cholera, began to disappear.

bolesti koje se šire vodom, poput kolere, počele su da isčezavaju.

And an amazing fact for techno-optimists

Jedna zapanjujuća činjenica, za one koji su optimistični prema tehnologiji,

is that in the first half of the 20th century,

je činjenica da je u prvoj polovini 20. veka

the rate of improvement of life expectancy

stopa životnog veka rasla

was three times faster than it was

tri puta brže nego

in the second half of the 19th century.

u drugoj polovini 19. veka.

So it's a truism that things can't be more than 100 percent of themselves.

Činjenica je da se stvari ne mogu poboljšati kada dostignu svoj maksimum.

And I'll just give you a few examples.

Daću vam samo nekoliko primera.

We went from one percent to 90 percent of the speed of sound.

Sa 1% stigli smo na 90% brzine zvuka.

Electrification, central heat, ownership of motor cars,

Uvođenje struje, centralnog grejanja, posedovanje motornih vozila,

they all went from zero to 100 percent.

sve ovo je sa 0% dostiglo 100%.

Urban environments make people more productive than on the farm.

Ljudi su produktivniji u urbanim sredinama nego na farmama.

We went from 25 percent urban to 75 percent

Sa 25% stigli smo do 75% urbanizacije

by the early postwar years.

do ranih posleratnih godina.

What about the electronic revolution?

Šta je sa elektronskom revolucijom?

Here's an early computer.

Ovo je jedan od prvih računara.

It's amazing. The mainframe computer was invented in 1942.

To je neverovatno. Mejnfrejm računari stvoreni su 1942.

By 1960 we had telephone bills, bank statements

Do 1960. telefonske račune, bankarske izveštaje

were being produced by computers.

stvarali su računari.

The earliest cell phones, the earliest personal computers

Prvi fiksni telefoni, prvi PC-jevi

were invented in the 1970s.

stvoreni su 1970-ih.

The 1980s brought us Bill Gates, DOS,

1980-te donele su nam Bila Gejtsa, DOS,

ATM machines to replace bank tellers,

bankomate koji su zamenili blagajnike,

bar code scanning to cut down on labor in the retail sector.

skeneri bar kodova su smanjili radnu snagu u maloprodaji.

Fast forward through the '90s,

Dok prolećemo '90-te,

we had the dotcom revolution

desila se revolucija internet domena

and a temporary rise in productivity growth.

i privremeni rast produktivnosti.

But I'm now going to give you an experiment.

Ali sada ću vam predstaviti jedan eksperiment.

You have to choose either option A or option B.

Možete odabrati opciju A ili B.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Option A is you get to keep everything invented up till 10 years ago.

Opcija A je mogućnost da zadržite sve što je izumljeno do pre 10 godina.

So you get Google, you get Amazon,

Dakle, zadržavate Gugl, Amazon,

you get Wikipedia, and you get running water and indoor toilets.

Vikipediju, tekuću vodu i kupatila u kući.

Or you get everything invented to yesterday,

Ili dobijate sve što je izumljeno do juče,

including Facebook and your iPhone,

uključujući Fejsbuk, Ajfon,

but you have to give up, go out to the outhouse,

ali morate se odreći ostalog, koristiti poljski WC

and carry in the water.

i donositi vodu.

Hurricane Sandy caused a lot of people to lose the 20th century,

Uragan Sendi je ostavio mnoge ljude bez 20. veka,

maybe for a couple of days,

možda na nekoliko dana,

in some cases for more than a week,

u nekim slučajevima duže od nedelju dana,

electricity, running water, heating, gasoline for their cars,

bez struje, tekuće vode, grejanja, goriva za njihova kola

and a charge for their iPhones.

i načina da napune telefone.

The problem we face is that all these great inventions,

Problem sa kojim se suočavamo jeste da moramo da dostignemo

we have to match them in the future,

sve ove velike izume u budućnosti,

and my prediction that we're not going to match them

a moje predviđanje da ih nećemo dostići,

brings us down from the original two-percent growth

vodi nas od prvobitnog rasta od 2% na 0,2,

down to 0.2, the fanciful curve that I drew you at the beginning.

do zamišljene krive koju sam vam iscrtao na početku.

So here we are back to the horse and buggy.

Sada se vraćamo na konja i kočije.

I'd like to award an Oscar

Želeo bih da dodelim Oskar

to the inventors of the 20th century,

pronalazačima 20. veka,

the people from Alexander Graham Bell

ljudima od Aleksandra Grejama Bela

to Thomas Edison to the Wright Brothers,

do Tomasa Edisona, Braće Rajt.

I'd like to call them all up here,

Želeo bih da ih pozovem ovde

and they're going to call back to you.

i oni će uputiti poziv vama.

Your challenge is, can you match what we achieved?

Vaš izazov je: možete li dostići ono što smo mi postigli?

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)