Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of growth

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Translator: Entela Bodinaku Reviewer: Helena Bedalli

That's how we traveled in the year 1900.

Ja si udhetonim ne vitin 1900.

That's an open buggy. It doesn't have heating.

Kjo eshte nje karroce e hapur. Nuk ka ngrohje.

It doesn't have air conditioning.

Nuk ka kondicioner.

That horse is pulling it along

Po terhiqet nga kali

at one percent of the speed of sound,

me shpejtesi sa 1% e shpejtesise e zerit

and the rutted dirt road

dhe rruga me dhé

turns into a quagmire of mud anytime it rains.

kthehet ne lluce sa here bie shi.

That's a Boeing 707.

Ky eshte nje Boeing 707.

Only 60 years later, it travels

Vetem 60 vjet me vone,

at 80 percent of the speed of sound,

udheton me shpejtesi 80% sa shpejtesia e zerit,

and we don't travel any faster today

dhe ne nuk udhetojme dot me shpejt se kaq ne ditet e sotme

because commercial supersonic air travel

sepse udhetimi komercial ajror

turned out to be a bust.

doli me humbje.

So I started wondering and pondering,

Keshtu une u bera kurioz dhe fillova te mendoj,

could it be that the best years of American economic growth

a ka mundesi qe i kemi lene mbrapa vitet me te mira te rritjes

are behind us?

ekonomike amerikane?

And that leads to the suggestion, maybe economic growth

Dhe kjo me ben te sugjeroj qe ndoshta rritja ekonomike

is almost over.

pothuajse ka perfunduar.

Some of the reasons for this are not really very controversial.

Disa nga aresyet per kete ne te vertete nuk jane shume kontroversiale.

There are four headwinds that are just hitting

Kater erera kunder po e godasin

the American economy in the face.

ekonomine amerikane ne fytyre.

They're demographics, education, debt and inequality.

Ato jane karakteristikat e popullsise, edukimi, borxhi dhe pabarazia.

They're powerful enough to cut growth in half.

Ato jane aq te fuqishme sa ta pergjysmojne rritjen.

So we need a lot of innovation to offset this decline.

Keshtu ne na duhet shume inovacion per te balancuar kete renie.

And here's my theme: Because of the headwinds,

Dhe ideja ime eshte: Per shkak te ererave kunder,

if innovation continues to be as powerful as it has been

nese inovacioni vazhdon te jete po aq i fuqishem sa ka qene

in the last 150 years, growth is cut in half.

ne 150 vjetet e fundit, rritja pergjysmohet.

If innovation is less powerful,

Nese inovacioni do te ishte me pak i fuqishem,

invents less great, wonderful things,

dmth do shpikeshin me pak gjera te medha dhe te mrekullueshme,

then growth is going to be even lower than half of history.

atehere rritja do te jete me e ulet edhe se gjysma e historise.

Now here's eight centuries of economic growth.

Tani ja ku jane 8 shekuj te rritjes ekonomike.

The vertical axis is just percent per year of growth,

Boshti vertikal eshte perqindja e rritjes ne vit,

zero percent a year, one percent a year, two percent a year.

zero perqind ne vit, nje perqind ne vit, dy perqind ne vit.

The white line is for the U.K., and then the U.S.

Viza e bardhe eshte per Mbreterine e Bashkuar dhe pastaj Shtetet e Bashkuara

takes over as the leading nation in the year 1900,

ja kalojne dhe behen vendi udheheqes ne vitin 1900,

when the line switches to red.

kur viza kthehet ne te kuqe.

You'll notice that, for the first four centuries,

Ju do te vini re se per kater shekujt e pare,

there's hardly any growth at all, just 0.2 percent.

puthuajse nuk ka fare rritje, vetem 0.2 perqind.

Then growth gets better and better.

Me pas rritja behet edhe me e shpejte.

It maxes out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,

Arrin maksimumin ne vitin 1930, 40' dhe 50',

and then it starts slowing down, and here's a cautionary note.

dhe pastaj fillon te ngadalesohet, dhe ketu po bej nje shenim per te pasur kujdes.

That last downward notch in the red line

Pika e fundit e poshtme ne vizen e kuqe,

is not actual data.

nuk eshte pjese e te dhenave te verteta.

That is a forecast that I made six years ago

Ajo eshte pjese e parashikimit qe une bera gjashte vjet me pare

that growth would slow down to 1.3 percent.

qe eshte qe rritja do te ngadalesohej deri ne 1.3 perqind.

But you know what the actual facts are?

Por a e dini cilat jane fakte te verteta?

You know what the growth in per-person income has been

A e dini sa ka qene rritja e te ardhurave personale,

in the United States in the last six years?

ne Shtetet e Bashkuara ne 6 vitet e fundit?

Negative.

Negative.

This led to a fantasy.

Kjo me beri te mendoj.

What if I try to fit a curved line to this historical record?

Po nqs perpiqem t'i pershtas ketij rekordi historik nje vije te harkuar?

I can make the curved line end anywhere I wanted,

Une mund ta bej vijen e harkuar ku te dua,

but I decided I would end it at 0.2,

por vendosa ta perfundoj ne 0.2,

just like the U.K. growth for the first four centuries.

aq sa dhe rritja e Mbreterise se Bashkuar ne kater shekujt e pare.

Now the history that we've achieved is that we've grown

Tani historia qe kemi arritur eshte qe jemi rritur

at 2.0 percent per year over the whole period,

me 2.0 perqind ne vit pergjate gjithe periudhes,

1891 to 2007,

nga 1891 ne 2007,

and remember it's been a little bit negative since 2007.

dhe mos harroni qe ka qene pak negative qe nga viti 2007.

But if growth slows down,

Por ne qofte se rritja ngadalesohet,

instead of doubling our standard of living every generation,

ne vend qe te dyfishojme standartin tone te jeteses cdo gjenerate,

Americans in the future can't expect to be twice as well off as their parents,

Ne te ardhmen Amerikanet nuk mund te presin te jene dy here me mire se prinderit e tyre,

or even a quarter [more well off than] their parents.

ose edhe nje te katerten me mire se prinderit e tyre.

Now we're going to change and look at the level of per capita income.

Tani do te ndryshojme dhe do te shikojme nivelin e te ardhurave per person.

The vertical axis now is thousands of dollars in today's prices.

Aksi vertikal tani eshte ndare ne mijera dollare me cmimet e sotme.

You'll notice that in 1891, over on the left,

ju do te vini re qe ne vitin 1891, ne te majte,

we were at about 5,000 dollars.

ne ishim tek afersisht $5,000.

Today we're at about 44,000 dollars of total output

Sot ne jemi tek afersisht $44,000 ne total

per member of the population.

per cdo pjesetar te popullsise.

Now what if we could achieve that historic

Po sikur ne te mund ta arrinim ate

two-percent growth for the next 70 years?

2 perqindshin historik te rritjes ne 70 vitet e ardhshme?

Well, it's a matter of arithmetic.

Epo, eshte nje ceshtje aritmetike.

Two-percent growth quadruples your standard of living in 70 years.

Nje rritje 2% e katerfishon standartin e jeteses ne 70 vjet.

That means we'd go from 44,000 to 180,000.

Kjo do te thote qe ne do te shkonim nga $44,000 ne $180,000.

Well, we're not going to do that,

Epo, kjo s'ka per te ndodhur,

and the reason is the headwinds.

dhe arsyeja jane ererat kunder.

The first headwind is demographics.

E para eshte tiparet e popullsise.

It's a truism that your standard of living

Eshte e ditur qe standarti juaj i jeteses

rises faster than productivity, rises faster than output per hour,

rritet me shpejt se produktiviteti, rritet me shpejt se e ardhura per ore,

if hours per person increased.

nese oret per cdo person do te rriteshin.

And we got that gift back in the '70s and '80s

Dhe kjo na u be dhurate ne vitet 70' dhe 80'

when women entered the labor force.

kur grate u bene pjese e fuqise punetore.

But now it's turned around.

Por tani gjerat kane ndryshuar.

Now hours per person are shrinking,

Oret per person po zvogelohen,

first because of the retirement of the baby boomers,

se pari per shkak te daljes ne pension te baby-boomers,

and second because there's been a very significant

dhe se dyti sepse ka pasur nje ikje te theksuar

dropping out of the labor force of prime age adult males

nga fuqia punetore te meshkujve ne kulmin e moshes

who are in the bottom half of the educational distribution.

te cilet jane ne gjysmen e dyte te shkalles se edukimit.

The next headwind is education.

Era tjeter kundra eshte shkollimi.

We've got problems all over our educational system

Ne kemi probleme ne te gjthe sistemin tone shkollor

despite Race to the Top.

pavaresisht nga Gara per ne Krye.

In college, we've got cost inflation in higher education

Ne universitet, ne kemi rritje te kostos se shkolles se larte

that dwarfs cost inflation in medical care.

qe eshte gjigande ne krahasim me rritjen e kostos se sherbimit mjekesor.

We have in higher education a trillion dollars of student debt,

Ne shkollen e larte ne kemi nje borxh studentor prej nje trilion dollare,

and our college completion rate

dhe perqindja e perfundimit te shkolles se larte

is 15 points, 15 percentage points below Canada.

eshte 15 pike, 15 % poshte Kanadase.

We have a lot of debt.

Ne kemi shume borxhe.

Our economy grew from 2000 to 2007

Ekonomia jone u rrit nga viti 2000 ne 2007

on the back of consumers massively overborrowing.

ne kurriz te marrjes masive te kredive prej konsumatoreve.

Consumers paying off that debt is one of the main reasons

Dhe pagimi i kredise mbrapsht eshte nje nga aresyet kryesore

why our economic recovery is so sluggish today.

pse rritja jone ekonomike sot eshte kaq e ngadalte.

And everybody of course knows

Dhe sigurisht te gjithe e dine

that the federal government debt is growing

qe borxhi federal si pjese e GDP-se

as a share of GDP at a very rapid rate,

po rritet me shpejtesi.

and the only way that's going to stop is some combination

dhe e vetmja menyre per ta ndaluar eshte kombinimi

of faster growth in taxes or slower growth in entitlements,

i rritjes se shpejte te taksave ose i rritjes se ngadalte te benefiteve,

also called transfer payments.

qe quhen pagesa te transferueshme.

And that gets us down from the 1.5,

Dhe kjo na con nga 1,5

where we've reached for education, down to 1.3.

ku kishim arritur me shkollimin, ne 1,3.

And then we have inequality.

Dhe ne fund kemi pabarazine.

Over the 15 years before the financial crisis,

Gjate 15 viteve perpara krizes financiare,

the growth rate of the bottom 99 percent

shpejtesia e rritjes se shkalles se te ardhurave

of the income distribution was half a point slower

te 99 perqindeshit te fundit ishte gjysem pike me e ngadalte

than the averages we've been talking about before.

se sa mesataret per te cilat folem me pare.

All the rest went to the top one percent.

Gjithe pjesa tjeter shkoi tek nje perqindshi ne krye.

So that brings us down to 0.8.

Pra kjo na con poshte ne 0.8 perqind.

And that 0.8 is the big challenge.

Dhe ky 0.8 perqindshi eshte sfida e madhe.

Are we going to grow at 0.8?

A do te rritemi me 0.8 perqind?

If so, that's going to require that our inventions

Ne se po, kjo do te kerkoje qe inovacionet tona

are as important as the ones that happened

te jene po aq te rendesishme sa ato qe u bene

over the last 150 years.

gjate 150 viteve te fundit.

So let's see what some of those inventions were.

Atehere le te shikojme cilat ishin disa nga keto inovacione.

If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,

Nese ne vitin 1875 ju donit te lexonit naten,

you needed to have an oil or a gas lamp.

ju duhej nje llampe me vaj ose me vajguri.

They created pollution, they created odors,

Ato sillnin ndotje, erera te renda,

they were hard to control, the light was dim,

ishin te veshtira per t'u kontrolluar, drita ishte e zbehte,

and they were a fire hazard.

dhe ishin rrezik zjarri.

By 1929, electric light was everywhere.

Ne 1929, drita elektrike ishte kudo.

We had the vertical city, the invention of the elevator.

Ne kishim qytetin vertikal, shpikjen e ashensorit.

Central Manhattan became possible.

U be i mundur Manhattani qendror.

And then, in addition to that, at the same time,

Dhe pastaj, pervec kesaj, ne te njejten kohe,

hand tools were replaced by massive electric tools

veglat e punes u zevendesuan nga veglat elektrike

and hand-powered electric tools,

dhe veglat elektrike me perdorim manual,

all achieved by electricity.

te gjitha te arritura nepermjet elektricitetit.

Electricity was also very helpful in liberating women.

Elektriciteti gjithashtu ndihmoi ne clirimin e grave

Women, back in the late 19th century,

Grate, ne fundin e shekullit te 19,

spent two days a week doing the laundry.

harxhonin dy dite ne jave me larjen e rrobave.

They did it on a scrub board.

Kjo behej me nje pllake per t'i ferkuar.

Then they had to hang the clothes out to dry.

Dhe pastaj i varnin rrobat jashte te thaheshin.

Then they had to bring them in.

pastaj duhet t'i fusnin brenda.

The whole thing took two days out of the seven-day week.

Gjithe kjo merrte dy dite, nga shtate dite te javes.

And then we had the electric washing machine.

Dhe pastaj u shipk lavatricja.

And by 1950, they were everywhere.

Ne vitin 1950, ato ishin kudo.

But the women still had to shop every day,

Por grate prape duhet te benin pazar cdo dite,

but no they didn't, because electricity

por jo, sepse elektriciteti

brought us the electric refrigerator.

solli frigoriferin.

Back in the late 19th century, the only source of heat in most homes

Ne fundin e shekullit te 19, i vetmi burim ngrohje ne shumicen e shtepive

was a big fireplace in the kitchen that was used for cooking and heating.

ishte oxhaku i zjarrit ne kuzhine qe gjithashtu perdorej per te gatuar.

The bedrooms were cold. They were unheated.

Dhomat e gjumit ishin te ftohta.Ishin te pa ngrohura.

But by 1929, certainly by 1950,

Por nga viti 1929, dhe me siguri nga viti 1950,

we had central heating everywhere.

ne kishim ngrohje qendrore kudo.

What about the internal combustion engine,

Po motori me djegie te brendshme,

which was invented in 1879?

qe u shpik ne 1879?

In America, before the motor vehicle,

Ne Amerike, perpara makines,

transportation depended entirely on the urban horse,

transporti varej krejtesisht nga kali,

which dropped, without restraint,

i cili leshonte, pa frike,

25 to 50 pounds of manure on the streets every day

25-50 pound bajga ne rruge cdo dite

together with a gallon of urine.

se bashku me nje gallon urine.

That comes out at five to 10 tons daily

Kjo arrin ne 5 deri 10 ton ne dite

per square mile in cities.

per milje katror ne qytete.

Those horses also ate up fully one quarter of American agricultural land.

Keta kuaj okuponin nje te katerten e tokes bujqesore amerikane.

That's the percentage of American agricultural land

Kjo ishte perqindja e tokes bujqesore amerikane

it took to feed the horses.

qe nevojitej per te ushqyer kuajt.

Of course, when the motor vehicle was invented,

Sigurisht qe kur u shpik makina,

and it became almost ubiquitous by 1929,

dhe u be pothuajse e gjithepranishme ne vitin 1929,

that agricultural land could be used for human consumption

toka bujqesore mund te perdorej per konsum njerezor

or for export.

ose per eksport.

And here's an interesting ratio: Starting from zero in 1900,

Dhe ja ku kemi nje krahasim interesant: Duke filluar nga zero ne vitin 1900,

only 30 years later, the ratio of motor vehicles to the number of households

vetem 30 vjet me vone, numri i makinave ne krahasim me numrin e familjeve

in the United States reached 90 percent in just 30 years.

ne Shtetet e Bashkuara arriti 90 % vetem ne 30 vjet.

Back before the turn of the century,

Por perpara mbarimit te shekullit,

women had another problem.

grate kishin nje tjeter problem.

All the water for cooking, cleaning and bathing

Gjithe uji per gatim, pastrim dhe larje

had to be carried in buckets and pails in from the outside.

duhej te ngarkohej me kova nga jashte.

It's a historical fact that in 1885,

Eshte fakt historik qe ne vitin 1885,

the average North Carolina housewife

nje grua shtepiake nga North Carolina

walked 148 miles a year carrying 35 tons of water.

ecte 148 milje ne vit duke mbajtur 35 ton uje.

But by 1929, cities around the country

Por ne vitin 1929, qytetet

had put in underground water pipes.

kishin instaluar tuba ujesjelles nen toke.

They had put in underground sewer pipes,

Ata kishin instaluar tubat e ujerave te zeza,

and as a result, one of the great scourges of the late 19th century,

dhe si rezultat, nje nga epidemite e fundit te shekullit te 19-te,

waterborne diseases like cholera, began to disappear.

qe kishte te bente me koleren qe shkaktohej nga uji, filloi te zhdukej.

And an amazing fact for techno-optimists

Dhe nje fakt i mrekullueshem per optimistet e teknologjise

is that in the first half of the 20th century,

eshte qe ne gjysmen e pare te shekullit te 20-te,

the rate of improvement of life expectancy

shkalla e permiresimit te gjatesise se jetes

was three times faster than it was

ishte tre here me e shpejte se sa

in the second half of the 19th century.

ne gjysmen e dyte te shekullit te 19-te

So it's a truism that things can't be more than 100 percent of themselves.

Keshtu qe eshte e ditur qe gjerat nuk mund te jene me shume se 100 perqind te vetes se tyre.

And I'll just give you a few examples.

dhe do t'ju jap disa shembuj.

We went from one percent to 90 percent of the speed of sound.

Ne kaluam nga 1 perqind ne 90 perqind te shpejtesise se zerit.

Electrification, central heat, ownership of motor cars,

Elektrifikimi, ngrohja qendrore, pasja e nje makine,

they all went from zero to 100 percent.

te gjitha shkuan nga zero ne 100 perqind.

Urban environments make people more productive than on the farm.

mjediset urbane i bejne njerezit me produktive se sa ne ferme.

We went from 25 percent urban to 75 percent

Ne kaluam nga 25 perqind ne 75 perqind urban

by the early postwar years.

ne vitet e para pas luftes.

What about the electronic revolution?

Po persa i perket revolucionit elektronik?

Here's an early computer.

Ja ku eshte nje kompiuter i hershem.

It's amazing. The mainframe computer was invented in 1942.

Eshte e mahnitshme. Kompjuteri eshte shpikur ne 1942.

By 1960 we had telephone bills, bank statements

Nga viti 1960 faturat e telefonit, te permbledhjeve te bankes

were being produced by computers.

prodhoheshin nga kompiuteret.

The earliest cell phones, the earliest personal computers

Celularet me te hershem, kompjuteret personale me te hershem

were invented in the 1970s.

u shpiken ne vitet 1970.

The 1980s brought us Bill Gates, DOS,

Vitet 1980 na sollen Bill Gates, DOS,

ATM machines to replace bank tellers,

makinat ATM qe zevendesuan punonjesit e bankes,

bar code scanning to cut down on labor in the retail sector.

skanimin e kodeve te mallrave duke zvogeluar punen ne sektorin e shitjeve ne dyqane.

Fast forward through the '90s,

Kalojme me shpejtesi ne vitet 90-te,

we had the dotcom revolution

ne patem revolucionin dotcom

and a temporary rise in productivity growth.

dhe nje rritje te perkoheshme ne produktivitet.

But I'm now going to give you an experiment.

por tani do t''ju jap nje eksperiment.

You have to choose either option A or option B.

Ju duhet te zgjidhni opsionin A ose opsionin B.

(Laughter)

(te qeshura)

Option A is you get to keep everything invented up till 10 years ago.

Opsioni A eshte qe ju mund te mbani cdo gje te shpikur deri 10 vjete me pare.

So you get Google, you get Amazon,

Keshtu qe ju mbani Google, Amazon,

you get Wikipedia, and you get running water and indoor toilets.

Wikipedia, dhe uje te rrjedhshem dhe banjo brenda ne shtepi.

Or you get everything invented to yesterday,

Ose ju mbani cdo gje te shpikur deri dje,

including Facebook and your iPhone,

duke perfshire Facebook dhe IPhone,

but you have to give up, go out to the outhouse,

por duhet te dorezoheni, te shkoni ne banjo jashte,

and carry in the water.

dhe te sillni ujin me kova.

Hurricane Sandy caused a lot of people to lose the 20th century,

Uragani Sandy beri qe shume njerez ta humbisnin shekullin e 20-te,

maybe for a couple of days,

ndoshta per nja dy dite,

in some cases for more than a week,

ne disa raste per me shume se nje jave,

electricity, running water, heating, gasoline for their cars,

elektricitetin, ujin e rrjedhshem, ngrohjen, naften per makinat e tyre,

and a charge for their iPhones.

dhe nje karikim per IPhone-in.

The problem we face is that all these great inventions,

Problemi me te cilin perballemi eshte qe me te gjitha keto shpikje,

we have to match them in the future,

ne duhet te barazohemi ne te ardhmen,

and my prediction that we're not going to match them

dhe parashikimi im qe nuk do te mund te barazohemi,

brings us down from the original two-percent growth

na con nga 2 perqind rritje

down to 0.2, the fanciful curve that I drew you at the beginning.

ne 0,2 perqind, vija e harkuar qe vizatova ne fillim.

So here we are back to the horse and buggy.

Atehere ja ku jemi prape tek karroca me kale.

I'd like to award an Oscar

Une do do ja t'u jepja nje Oskar

to the inventors of the 20th century,

shpikesve te shekullit te 20-te,

the people from Alexander Graham Bell

njerezve nga Alexander Graham Bell

to Thomas Edison to the Wright Brothers,

tek Thomas Edison tek vellezerit Wright,

I'd like to call them all up here,

Do te doja t'i therrisja ketu lart,

and they're going to call back to you.

dhe ata do t'ju bejne thirrje ju.

Your challenge is, can you match what we achieved?

Sfida juaj eshte, a mund te barazoheni me ate qe kemi arritur?

Thank you.

Faleminderit.

(Applause)

(duartrokitje)