Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of growth

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Yi-Ting Chung 審譯者: Geoff Chen

That's how we traveled in the year 1900.

這是我們 1900 年用的交通工具

That's an open buggy. It doesn't have heating.

輕便敞篷馬車，沒有裝暖氣

It doesn't have air conditioning.

也沒有裝冷氣

That horse is pulling it along

那隻馬

at one percent of the speed of sound,

以 1% 的聲速前進

and the rutted dirt road

而布滿車輪痕跡的泥濘小路

turns into a quagmire of mud anytime it rains.

一下雨就成了沼澤地

That's a Boeing 707.

這是波音 707 客機

Only 60 years later, it travels

只過了 60 年

at 80 percent of the speed of sound,

就能以 80% 的聲速移動

and we don't travel any faster today

而現在我們沒有更快的交通工具

because commercial supersonic air travel

因為超音速商務飛機

turned out to be a bust.

最後失敗了

So I started wondering and pondering,

所以我開始思索

could it be that the best years of American economic growth

會不會美國經濟最蓬勃發展的年代

are behind us?

已經過去了？

And that leads to the suggestion, maybe economic growth

這也意味著，或許經濟成長

is almost over.

幾乎已經結束了

Some of the reasons for this are not really very controversial.

有些結束的原因沒有太大的爭議

There are four headwinds that are just hitting

現在有四大困境正迎面襲擊

the American economy in the face.

美國現在的經濟實力

They're demographics, education, debt and inequality.

包括人口統計、教育、債務及不平等的問題

They're powerful enough to cut growth in half.

這些問題足以減少一半的成長

So we need a lot of innovation to offset this decline.

所以我們需要大量創新 來抵銷經濟下滑的趨勢

And here's my theme: Because of the headwinds,

這就是我的主題：因為這些困境

if innovation continues to be as powerful as it has been

假如創新的表現能和過去 150 年一樣亮眼

in the last 150 years, growth is cut in half.

經濟成長會減半

If innovation is less powerful,

假如創新力沒有進步

invents less great, wonderful things,

無法再發明更多有用的東西

then growth is going to be even lower than half of history.

那麼經濟成長將比不上過去的一半

Now here's eight centuries of economic growth.

這是過去八個世紀經濟成長的表現

The vertical axis is just percent per year of growth,

縱軸代表每年成長的百分比

zero percent a year, one percent a year, two percent a year.

一年 0%、1% 或 2%

The white line is for the U.K., and then the U.S.

白線代表英國，後段是美國

takes over as the leading nation in the year 1900,

在 1900 年成為世界強權

when the line switches to red.

也就是紅色線段的部分

You'll notice that, for the first four centuries,

大家可以注意到，前面四個世紀

there's hardly any growth at all, just 0.2 percent.

幾乎沒有任何成長，只有 0.2%

Then growth gets better and better.

接著成長越來越快

It maxes out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,

在 1930、1940 及 1950 年 有最高的經濟成長率

and then it starts slowing down, and here's a cautionary note.

然後成長逐漸趨緩，要注意的是

That last downward notch in the red line

紅線中最後一次下滑的部分

is not actual data.

不是實際的資料

That is a forecast that I made six years ago

是我六年前做的預測

that growth would slow down to 1.3 percent.

經濟成長將下滑至 1.3%

But you know what the actual facts are?

但是你們知道實際數據是多少嗎？

You know what the growth in per-person income has been

你們知道過去六年，美國每人所得

in the United States in the last six years?

成長率是多少嗎？

Negative.

是負數

This led to a fantasy.

假設一下

What if I try to fit a curved line to this historical record?

我試著以曲線表示這份歷史紀錄

I can make the curved line end anywhere I wanted,

我可以自己決定曲線在哪裡結束

but I decided I would end it at 0.2,

我認為會在 0.2 的部分

just like the U.K. growth for the first four centuries.

就跟英國前面四個世紀一樣

Now the history that we've achieved is that we've grown

歷史上我們的經濟成長表現是

at 2.0 percent per year over the whole period,

從 1891 年到 2007 年，每年都成長了

1891 to 2007,

2%

and remember it's been a little bit negative since 2007.

而且別忘了從 2007 年就開始出現負成長

But if growth slows down,

如果成長趨緩

instead of doubling our standard of living every generation,

而不是每一代的生活水準都有兩倍成長

Americans in the future can't expect to be twice as well off as their parents,

未來美國人無法過的 比自己的父母加倍幸福

or even a quarter [more well off than] their parents.

或甚至連他們幸福的四分之一都不到

Now we're going to change and look at the level of per capita income.

現在我們來看看每人平均所得水準

The vertical axis now is thousands of dollars in today's prices.

縱軸是以現在物價來衡量的價格

You'll notice that in 1891, over on the left,

大家可以看到在 1891 年，左手邊的部分

we were at about 5,000 dollars.

大約是平均 5000 元

Today we're at about 44,000 dollars of total output

現在大約每人總產出是

per member of the population.

四萬四千元

Now what if we could achieve that historic

萬一接下來的 70 年，我們可以達到

two-percent growth for the next 70 years?

2% 成長的表現，結果會是如何呢？

Well, it's a matter of arithmetic.

這就是算術上的問題了

Two-percent growth quadruples your standard of living in 70 years.

2% 的成長率，70 年後是現在生活水準的四倍

That means we'd go from 44,000 to 180,000.

代表我們將從四萬四成長到十八萬

Well, we're not going to do that,

但我們做不到

and the reason is the headwinds.

原因就是那些困境

The first headwind is demographics.

第一個困境是人口統計

It's a truism that your standard of living

我們都知道，如果每小時的人力增加

rises faster than productivity, rises faster than output per hour,

生活水準會成長得比生產力更快

if hours per person increased.

也比每小時的產出更快

And we got that gift back in the '70s and '80s

從 70 和 80 年代

when women entered the labor force.

女性投入勞動力，就可以看的出來

But now it's turned around.

但現在情況不同了

Now hours per person are shrinking,

現在每小時的人力逐漸在萎縮

first because of the retirement of the baby boomers,

第一個原因是因為 嬰兒潮出生的人退休了

and second because there's been a very significant

第二個原因是因為

dropping out of the labor force of prime age adult males

大量男性壯年人口的勞動力下降

who are in the bottom half of the educational distribution.

這些人分布於受教育人口的底層

The next headwind is education.

第二個困境是教育

We've got problems all over our educational system

儘管推動了「力爭上游」的教育改革計畫

despite Race to the Top.

整個教育體制還是有問題

In college, we've got cost inflation in higher education

大學裡，高等教育的成本膨脹

that dwarfs cost inflation in medical care.

使得醫療照顧的成本萎縮

We have in higher education a trillion dollars of student debt,

高等教育的學生負債高達一兆美元

and our college completion rate

而我們大學的畢業率

is 15 points, 15 percentage points below Canada.

是 15 個百分點，比加拿大低 15 個百分點

We have a lot of debt.

我們有很多的債務

Our economy grew from 2000 to 2007

我們的經濟從 2000 年到 2007 年有所成長

on the back of consumers massively overborrowing.

是因為消費者大量的借貸

Consumers paying off that debt is one of the main reasons

需要償還貸款的消費者

why our economic recovery is so sluggish today.

就是我們現在經濟蕭條的主因

And everybody of course knows

而大家當然都知道

that the federal government debt is growing

聯邦政府的公債也在持續上升

as a share of GDP at a very rapid rate,

急速成為國內生產毛額的一部分

and the only way that's going to stop is some combination

要阻止債務增加唯一的方法

of faster growth in taxes or slower growth in entitlements,

是結合高稅率及低津貼的方式

also called transfer payments.

也叫做轉移支付

And that gets us down from the 1.5,

這使得我們教育有的 1.5% 成長率

where we've reached for education, down to 1.3.

因負債下滑至 1.3%

And then we have inequality.

最後是不平等的問題

Over the 15 years before the financial crisis,

金融危機前 15 年

the growth rate of the bottom 99 percent

底部 99% 所得分配的成長率

of the income distribution was half a point slower

比我們之前所提過的平均成長率

than the averages we've been talking about before.

還要低 0.5 個百分點

All the rest went to the top one percent.

剩下的都是頂端 1%

So that brings us down to 0.8.

因此使得我們的成長率下滑至 0.8%

And that 0.8 is the big challenge.

這 0.8% 又是一大挑戰

Are we going to grow at 0.8?

我們有 0.8% 的經濟成長率嗎？

If so, that's going to require that our inventions

如果有，那我們的創新就必須

are as important as the ones that happened

和過去 150 年的創新

over the last 150 years.

一樣重要

So let's see what some of those inventions were.

我們來看看這些創新有哪些

If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,

在 1875 年，如果你晚上想要讀書

you needed to have an oil or a gas lamp.

你需要一盞油燈或煤氣燈

They created pollution, they created odors,

這些燈會造成污染，產生氣味

they were hard to control, the light was dim,

光線微弱，難以控制

and they were a fire hazard.

還有火災的危險

By 1929, electric light was everywhere.

到了 1929 年，到處都有電燈

We had the vertical city, the invention of the elevator.

因為電梯的發明，我們有了向上發展的城市

Central Manhattan became possible.

曼哈頓的繁榮才能成真

And then, in addition to that, at the same time,

除此之外，同時

hand tools were replaced by massive electric tools

手持工具被大量的電動工具

and hand-powered electric tools,

和手動操作的電動工具所取代

all achieved by electricity.

一切都歸功於電的發明

Electricity was also very helpful in liberating women.

電力對於婦女解放也有很大的幫助

Women, back in the late 19th century,

19 世紀晚期，女性

spent two days a week doing the laundry.

一週花兩天的時間在洗衣服

They did it on a scrub board.

用洗衣板洗衣服

Then they had to hang the clothes out to dry.

然後還要把衣服拿出去晾乾

Then they had to bring them in.

再把衣服收進來

The whole thing took two days out of the seven-day week.

整個過程一個禮拜就花了兩天

And then we had the electric washing machine.

後來發明了洗衣機

And by 1950, they were everywhere.

到了 1950 年，已經普遍使用

But the women still had to shop every day,

但婦女還是得每天上街買菜

but no they didn't, because electricity

事實上不需要，因為電

brought us the electric refrigerator.

帶動了冰箱的發明

Back in the late 19th century, the only source of heat in most homes

19 世紀晚期，大部分家庭唯一的熱源

was a big fireplace in the kitchen that was used for cooking and heating.

是廚房裡用來煮飯的大壁爐

The bedrooms were cold. They were unheated.

臥房都很冷，沒有暖氣

But by 1929, certainly by 1950,

但是到了 1929 年，更確定是到 1950 年

we had central heating everywhere.

中央暖氣系統已無所不在

What about the internal combustion engine,

那麼 1879 年

which was invented in 1879?

發明的內燃機呢？

In America, before the motor vehicle,

在美國，車子發明以前

transportation depended entirely on the urban horse,

交通完全倚賴馬匹

which dropped, without restraint,

牠們每天會在街道上無限制的

25 to 50 pounds of manure on the streets every day

排放 25 到 50 磅的糞便

together with a gallon of urine.

以及一加侖的尿液

That comes out at five to 10 tons daily

城市每平方英里

per square mile in cities.

一天會有 5 到 10 噸的排放量

Those horses also ate up fully one quarter of American agricultural land.

那些馬還吃了美國四分之一的農地

That's the percentage of American agricultural land

這就是美國農地

it took to feed the horses.

用來養馬的比例

Of course, when the motor vehicle was invented,

當然，車子發明了以後

and it became almost ubiquitous by 1929,

到 1929 年，幾乎已普遍使用

that agricultural land could be used for human consumption

那些農地就能讓人使用

or for export.

或是出口

And here's an interesting ratio: Starting from zero in 1900,

這個數據很有趣，1900 年開始

only 30 years later, the ratio of motor vehicles to the number of households

只過了 30 年，美國每戶擁有車子的比率

in the United States reached 90 percent in just 30 years.

從 0% 成長到 90%，只花了 30 年

Back before the turn of the century,

在上個世紀之前

women had another problem.

婦女還遇到另外一個難題

All the water for cooking, cleaning and bathing

所有煮飯、清潔或梳洗的用水

had to be carried in buckets and pails in from the outside.

都必須用水桶從外面裝回來

It's a historical fact that in 1885,

這是 1885 年的史實

the average North Carolina housewife

北卡羅來納州的家庭主婦

walked 148 miles a year carrying 35 tons of water.

一年走了 145 英里，裝 35 噸的水

But by 1929, cities around the country

但是到了 1929 年，全國各城市

had put in underground water pipes.

都建設了地下水道

They had put in underground sewer pipes,

他們鋪了下水道

and as a result, one of the great scourges of the late 19th century,

因此，19 世紀晚期最嚴重的災難

waterborne diseases like cholera, began to disappear.

透過水所傳染的疾病像霍亂，逐漸消失

And an amazing fact for techno-optimists

對技術樂觀主義者來說，最驚人的是

is that in the first half of the 20th century,

20 世紀前半

the rate of improvement of life expectancy

平均壽命改善的速率

was three times faster than it was

比 19 世紀後半

in the second half of the 19th century.

快了 3 倍

So it's a truism that things can't be more than 100 percent of themselves.

所以理所當然你知道 這已經是最好的表現了

And I'll just give you a few examples.

我給大家舉一些例子

We went from one percent to 90 percent of the speed of sound.

我們從 0% 的聲速進步到 90%

Electrification, central heat, ownership of motor cars,

電氣化、中央暖氣系統、汽車

they all went from zero to 100 percent.

都從無到有，0% 進步到 100%

Urban environments make people more productive than on the farm.

比起農場，城市的環境讓我們更有生產力

We went from 25 percent urban to 75 percent

戰後初期，城市化的比率

by the early postwar years.

從 25% 上升至 75%

What about the electronic revolution?

那麼電子方面的革命呢？

Here's an early computer.

這是早期的電腦

It's amazing. The mainframe computer was invented in 1942.

非常驚人，大型電腦在 1942 年時發明

By 1960 we had telephone bills, bank statements

到了 1960 年，我們的電話和銀行帳單

were being produced by computers.

都交由電腦處理

The earliest cell phones, the earliest personal computers

最早的手機、最早的個人電腦

were invented in the 1970s.

都在 1970 年出現

The 1980s brought us Bill Gates, DOS,

1980 年代我們有了比爾蓋茲、磁碟作業系統

ATM machines to replace bank tellers,

以及自動提款機，來取代銀行的出納員

bar code scanning to cut down on labor in the retail sector.

條碼掃描器減少了零售業的人力

Fast forward through the '90s,

一下就到了 90 年代

we had the dotcom revolution

我們有了網路革命

and a temporary rise in productivity growth.

生產力一度上升

But I'm now going to give you an experiment.

現在給大家做個實驗

You have to choose either option A or option B.

只能選 A 或選 B

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Option A is you get to keep everything invented up till 10 years ago.

A 選項是你可以保留 一直到 10 年前所發明的東西

So you get Google, you get Amazon,

所以你有谷歌、亞馬遜可以用

you get Wikipedia, and you get running water and indoor toilets.

還有維基百科、自來水和室內廁所

Or you get everything invented to yesterday,

或是 B 選項，你可以擁有 直至今日發明的所有東西

including Facebook and your iPhone,

包括臉書和蘋果的智慧型手機

but you have to give up, go out to the outhouse,

但你必須放棄，你必須到外面

and carry in the water.

裝水回來

Hurricane Sandy caused a lot of people to lose the 20th century,

颶風桑迪讓許多人失去了 20 世紀的一切

maybe for a couple of days,

也許是幾天

in some cases for more than a week,

有些人超過一個禮拜

electricity, running water, heating, gasoline for their cars,

沒有電、自來水、暖氣和汽油

and a charge for their iPhones.

也沒辦法幫手機充電

The problem we face is that all these great inventions,

現在的問題是，未來我們要有

we have to match them in the future,

比得上這些偉大發明的創新

and my prediction that we're not going to match them

而我預期，未來不會有更偉大的發明

brings us down from the original two-percent growth

我們從原來的 2% 成長率

down to 0.2, the fanciful curve that I drew you at the beginning.

下滑到我一開始畫的 0.2% 的未來預測

So here we are back to the horse and buggy.

現在回到馬匹及馬車

I'd like to award an Oscar

我想頒個奧斯卡獎

to the inventors of the 20th century,

給 20 世紀的發明家

the people from Alexander Graham Bell

從亞歷山大·格拉漢姆·貝爾

to Thomas Edison to the Wright Brothers,

到湯瑪斯·愛迪生，再到萊特兄弟

I'd like to call them all up here,

我想請他們到這裡來

and they're going to call back to you.

告訴大家

Your challenge is, can you match what we achieved?

你們面臨的挑戰是： 能不能戰勝我們的成就呢？

Thank you.

謝謝大家

(Applause)

(掌聲)