Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of growth

143,630 views ใƒป 2013-04-23

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Surie Lee ๊ฒ€ํ† : Yana Maquieira
00:12
That's how we traveled in the year 1900.
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์ €๊ฒƒ์ด 1900๋…„์˜ ๊ตํ†ต ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:15
That's an open buggy. It doesn't have heating.
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์ €๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉํ˜• ๋งˆ์ฐจ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ๋„ ์•ˆ๋˜๊ณ ,
00:17
It doesn't have air conditioning.
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๋ƒ‰๋ฐฉ๋„ ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:19
That horse is pulling it along
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์ € ๋ง์ด ๋งˆ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋Œ๊ณ  ๊ฐ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:21
at one percent of the speed of sound,
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์Œ์†์˜ 1% ์ •๋„์˜ ์†๋ ฅ์„ ๋‚ด์ง€์š”.
00:23
and the rutted dirt road
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๋ฐ”ํ€ด ์ž๊ตญ์ด ๋‚œ ๋น„ํฌ์žฅ ๋„๋กœ๋Š”
00:25
turns into a quagmire of mud anytime it rains.
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๋น„๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๊ธฐ๋งŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ์ง„ํ™ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:29
That's a Boeing 707.
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์ €๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ณด์ž‰ 707์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:32
Only 60 years later, it travels
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๋”ฑ 60๋…„ ํ›„์—, ์ €๊ฒƒ์„ ํƒ€๊ณ 
00:34
at 80 percent of the speed of sound,
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์Œ์† 80%์˜ ์†๋„๋กœ ์ด๋™ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:37
and we don't travel any faster today
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ํ˜„์žฌ ์ € ์†๋„๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์šดํ–‰ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š”
00:39
because commercial supersonic air travel
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์ƒ์—…์šฉ ์ดˆ์Œ์† ์—ฌ๊ฐ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€
00:42
turned out to be a bust.
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์‹คํŒจํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:44
So I started wondering and pondering,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ณฐ๊ณฐํžˆ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:47
could it be that the best years of American economic growth
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์˜ ์ „์„ฑ๊ธฐ๋Š”
00:50
are behind us?
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์ด๋ฏธ ์ง€๋‚˜๋ฒ„๋ฆฐ ๊ฒƒ์ผ๊นŒ?
00:52
And that leads to the suggestion, maybe economic growth
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์–ด์ฉŒ๋ฉด ๋” ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์€ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋๋‚œ ๊ฒƒ์ผ์ง€๋„
00:56
is almost over.
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๋ชจ๋ฅธ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ์ด ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:58
Some of the reasons for this are not really very controversial.
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๋ช‡๋ช‡ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๋ณ„๋กœ ๋…ผ๋ž€ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋„ ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:02
There are four headwinds that are just hitting
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์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ์ •๋ฉด์œผ๋กœ ๋งž๋‹ฅ๋œจ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
01:04
the American economy in the face.
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๋„ค ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์—ญํ’์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:07
They're demographics, education, debt and inequality.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ธ๊ตฌ, ๊ต์œก, ๋นš, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ถˆํ‰๋“ฑ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:12
They're powerful enough to cut growth in half.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ์ค„์ผ๋งŒํผ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์ด ๊ฐ•ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:15
So we need a lot of innovation to offset this decline.
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ•˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์„ ์ƒ์‡„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋งŽ์€ ํ˜์‹ ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:20
And here's my theme: Because of the headwinds,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ๊ฒƒ์€
01:23
if innovation continues to be as powerful as it has been
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์—ญํ’์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ํ˜์‹ ์ด ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ˆ˜์ค€์— ๋จธ๋ฌด๋ฅธ๋‹ค๋ฉด
01:25
in the last 150 years, growth is cut in half.
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์•ž์œผ๋กœ 150๋…„ ๊ฐ„์—๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:29
If innovation is less powerful,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ํ˜์‹ ์ด ๋œํ•ด์ง€๊ณ 
01:32
invents less great, wonderful things,
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ํ›Œ๋ฅญํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๋œ ๋ฐœ๋ช…ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
01:34
then growth is going to be even lower than half of history.
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๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:38
Now here's eight centuries of economic growth.
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์ด๊ฑด 8์„ธ๊ธฐ ๋™์•ˆ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:41
The vertical axis is just percent per year of growth,
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์„ธ๋กœ ์ถ•์€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:45
zero percent a year, one percent a year, two percent a year.
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1๋…„์— 0%, 1๋…„์— 1%, ๋˜๋Š” 1๋…„์— 2% ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹์œผ๋กœ์š”.
01:48
The white line is for the U.K., and then the U.S.
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ํฐ ์„ ์€ ์˜๊ตญ์ธ๋ฐ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด
01:51
takes over as the leading nation in the year 1900,
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1900๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์„ ๋„๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ์ฃผ๋„๊ถŒ์„ ์žก์•„
01:54
when the line switches to red.
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๋ถ‰์€ ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๋€๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:55
You'll notice that, for the first four centuries,
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๋ณด๋‹ค์‹œํ”ผ ์ฒซ 4์„ธ๊ธฐ ๋™์•ˆ์—๋Š”
01:57
there's hardly any growth at all, just 0.2 percent.
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์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 0.2% ์ •๋„๋กœ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์—†๋‹ค๊ฐ€
02:01
Then growth gets better and better.
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์ ์  ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ๋นจ๋ผ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:03
It maxes out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,
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1930, 40, 50๋…„๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ๋˜์–ด ์ •์ ์— ์ด๋ฅด๊ณ 
02:06
and then it starts slowing down, and here's a cautionary note.
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๊ทธ ํ›„๋กœ ์†๋„๊ฐ€ ์ค„๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ, ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ฃผ์˜ํ•  ์ ์€
02:09
That last downward notch in the red line
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์ €๊ธฐ ๋ถ‰์€ ์„ ์˜ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์—์„œ ํ•˜ํ–ฅํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฐ’์€
02:12
is not actual data.
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์‹ค์ œ ๋ฐ์ดํƒ€๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:14
That is a forecast that I made six years ago
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์ €๊ฒƒ์€ ์ œ๊ฐ€ 6๋…„ ์ „์— ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด
02:17
that growth would slow down to 1.3 percent.
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1.3%๋กœ ๋–จ์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ธกํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:20
But you know what the actual facts are?
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์™”๋Š”์ง€ ์•„์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
02:22
You know what the growth in per-person income has been
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์ง€๋‚œ 6๋…„๊ฐ„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด ์ผ์ธ๋‹น ์†Œ๋“์˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด
02:24
in the United States in the last six years?
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•„์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
02:27
Negative.
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๋งˆ์ด๋„ˆ์Šค ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:29
This led to a fantasy.
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์ด ์ ์ด ์ œ ์ƒ์ƒ๋ ฅ์„ ์ž๊ทนํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:31
What if I try to fit a curved line to this historical record?
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์ด ๊ธฐ๋ก์— ๊ณก์„ ์„ ๋งž์ถฐ๋ณด๋ฉด ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ?
02:36
I can make the curved line end anywhere I wanted,
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๊ณก์„ ์˜ ๋์„ ๋งˆ์Œ๋Œ€๋กœ ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
02:40
but I decided I would end it at 0.2,
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0.2%๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:43
just like the U.K. growth for the first four centuries.
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๊ผญ ์˜๊ตญ์ด ์ฒซ 4์„ธ๊ธฐ ๋™์•ˆ ์ด๋ฃจ์—ˆ๋˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์ด ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
02:48
Now the history that we've achieved is that we've grown
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ค„๋‚ธ ์—ญ์‚ฌ๋Š”
02:51
at 2.0 percent per year over the whole period,
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์ „๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 2%์˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด๋ƒˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:55
1891 to 2007,
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1891๋…„์—์„œ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2007๋…„๊นŒ์ง€,
02:59
and remember it's been a little bit negative since 2007.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  2007๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ๋Š” ์†Œํญ์˜ ๋งˆ์ด๋„ˆ์Šค์ธ ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์žŠ์ง€ ๋งˆ์„ธ์š”.
03:02
But if growth slows down,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ๋Š๋ ค์ง€๋ฉด,
03:05
instead of doubling our standard of living every generation,
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์„ธ๋Œ€๋งˆ๋‹ค ์ƒํ™œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด ๋ฐฐ๊ฐ€๋˜๋Š” ๋Œ€์‹ 
03:09
Americans in the future can't expect to be twice as well off as their parents,
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์€ ๋ถ€๋ชจ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋ฐฐ๋กœ ๋ถ€์œ ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:13
or even a quarter [more well off than] their parents.
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์–ด์ฉŒ๋ฉด ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๋” ์ž˜ ์‚ด ์ˆ˜ ์—†์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:16
Now we're going to change and look at the level of per capita income.
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์ด๋ฒˆ์—๋Š” ๊ฐœ์ธ ๋‹น ์†Œ๋“ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ๋ณด์‹œ์ฃ .
03:21
The vertical axis now is thousands of dollars in today's prices.
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์„ธ๋กœ ์ถ•์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๋กœ ๋”ฐ์ง€๋ฉด ์ˆ˜์ฒœ ๋ถˆ์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:24
You'll notice that in 1891, over on the left,
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ํ™”๋ฉด์˜ ์™ผ์ชฝ์—์„œ ๋ณด์ด๋“ฏ์ด 1891๋…„์—๋Š”
03:27
we were at about 5,000 dollars.
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๊ฐœ์ธ ์†Œ๋“ ์ˆ˜์ค€์€ 5์ฒœ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ •๋„ ๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:28
Today we're at about 44,000 dollars of total output
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ์—๋Š” ๊ฐœ์ธ ๋‹น
03:31
per member of the population.
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44,000๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:34
Now what if we could achieve that historic
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด ๊ทธ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์ธ 2% ์„ฑ์žฅ์„
03:36
two-percent growth for the next 70 years?
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๋‹ค์Œ 70๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ์— ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด ๋‚ธ๋‹ค๋ฉด์š”?
03:39
Well, it's a matter of arithmetic.
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์‚ฐ์ˆ˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:41
Two-percent growth quadruples your standard of living in 70 years.
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2% ์„ฑ์žฅ์€ 70๋…„ ํ›„์— ์ƒํ™œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ 4๋ฐฐ๋กœ ํ‚ค์›๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:45
That means we'd go from 44,000 to 180,000.
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์ฆ‰, 4๋งŒ 4์ฒœ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ 18๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
03:49
Well, we're not going to do that,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๊ฒ ์ฃ .
03:51
and the reason is the headwinds.
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์—ญํ’ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:53
The first headwind is demographics.
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์ฒซ์งธ๋กœ ์ธ๊ตฌ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:54
It's a truism that your standard of living
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๊ฐœ์ธ ๋‹น ๋…ธ๋™ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด
03:57
rises faster than productivity, rises faster than output per hour,
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์ƒํ™œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ, ์ฆ‰ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‹น ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋ฅ ๋ณด๋‹ค
04:00
if hours per person increased.
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๋” ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ป”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:03
And we got that gift back in the '70s and '80s
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์—ฌ์„ฑ์ด ๋…ธ๋™ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ์ฐธ์—ฌํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
04:05
when women entered the labor force.
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70, 80๋…„๋Œ€์—๋Š” ๊ทธ ํ˜œํƒ์„ ๋Œ๋ ค๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:08
But now it's turned around.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์ œ๋Š” ๋’ค์ง‘์–ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:10
Now hours per person are shrinking,
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์ด์ œ๋Š” ๊ฐœ์ธ๋‹น ๋…ธ๋™์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ์ค„๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€์š”.
04:12
first because of the retirement of the baby boomers,
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๋ฒ ์ด๋น„ ๋ถ ์„ธ๋Œ€์˜ ์€ํ‡ด,
04:15
and second because there's been a very significant
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ๊ต์œก ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด ํ‰๊ท  ์ดํ•˜์ธ
04:19
dropping out of the labor force of prime age adult males
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ํ•œ์ฐฝ ์ผํ•  ๋‚˜์ด์˜ ์„ฑ์ธ ๋‚จ์„ฑ ์ธ๋ ฅ์ด
04:23
who are in the bottom half of the educational distribution.
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ํ˜„์ €ํžˆ ์ค„์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:27
The next headwind is education.
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์ฆ‰ ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ ์—ญํ’์€ ๊ต์œก์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:30
We've got problems all over our educational system
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์ตœ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ํ–ฅํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ต์œก ์ฒด๊ณ„ ์ „๋ฐ˜์—
04:32
despite Race to the Top.
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๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:34
In college, we've got cost inflation in higher education
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๋Œ€ํ•™ ๋“ฑ๋ก๊ธˆ ๋น„์šฉ์ด ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์—ฌ
04:38
that dwarfs cost inflation in medical care.
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์˜๋ฃŒ ๋ณดํ—˜ ๋น„์šฉ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ํ›Œ์ฉ ๋›ฐ์–ด ๋„˜์—ˆ์„ ์ •๋„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:41
We have in higher education a trillion dollars of student debt,
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๋Œ€ํ•™ ํ•™์ž๊ธˆ ๋Œ€์ถœ๊ธˆ์ด 1์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ
04:45
and our college completion rate
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๋Œ€ํ•™ ์กธ์—…์œจ์€
04:48
is 15 points, 15 percentage points below Canada.
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์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค๋ณด๋‹ค 15%p๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:55
We have a lot of debt.
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ๋นš๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:57
Our economy grew from 2000 to 2007
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2000๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2007๋…„ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์€
05:02
on the back of consumers massively overborrowing.
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์†Œ๋น„์ž๋“ค์˜ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ๊ณผ์ž‰ ๋Œ€์ถœ์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:05
Consumers paying off that debt is one of the main reasons
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์†Œ๋น„์ž๋“ค์˜ ๋Œ€์ถœ๊ธˆ ์ƒํ™˜์ด ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„
05:08
why our economic recovery is so sluggish today.
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๋ถ€์ง„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ฃผ์š” ์›์ธ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:11
And everybody of course knows
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ๋ชจ๋“  ์ด๋“ค์ด ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:12
that the federal government debt is growing
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GDP ๋Œ€๋น„ ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์ •๋ถ€ ๋ถ€์ฑ„ ๋น„์œจ์ด
05:15
as a share of GDP at a very rapid rate,
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๋งค์šฐ ๋น ๋ฅธ ์†๋„๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ 
05:18
and the only way that's going to stop is some combination
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์ด๋ฅผ ๋ง‰์„ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ์„ธ์œจ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
05:21
of faster growth in taxes or slower growth in entitlements,
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์ด์ „์ง€์ถœ๊ฐ™์€ ์ •๋ถ€ ์ง€์› ํ˜œํƒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋Šฆ์ถ”๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ ์ ˆํžˆ
05:26
also called transfer payments.
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๋ณ‘ํ–‰ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋ฟ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ง์ด์ง€์š”.
05:28
And that gets us down from the 1.5,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒํ•ด์„œ ๊ต์œก์œผ๋กœ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
05:30
where we've reached for education, down to 1.3.
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1.5%์—์„œ 1.3%๋กœ ๋‚ฎ์–ด์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:34
And then we have inequality.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๋ถˆ๊ท ํ˜•์ด ๋‚จ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:36
Over the 15 years before the financial crisis,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ ์œ„๊ธฐ ์ „ 15๋…„์ด ๋„˜๋„๋ก
05:39
the growth rate of the bottom 99 percent
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ํ•˜์œ„ 99%์˜ ์†Œ๋“ ์„ฑ์žฅ์œจ์€
05:42
of the income distribution was half a point slower
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์ด์ „์— ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๋˜ ํ‰๊ท ๋ณด๋‹ค
05:45
than the averages we've been talking about before.
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0.5 ํฌ์ธํŠธ ๋‚ฎ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:48
All the rest went to the top one percent.
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๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€๋Š” ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ตœ์ƒ์œ„ 1%์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ”์ง€์š”.
05:50
So that brings us down to 0.8.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ 0.8%์— ๋จธ๋ฌด๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:53
And that 0.8 is the big challenge.
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๊ทธ 0.8%๋Š” ํฐ ๋„์ „์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:56
Are we going to grow at 0.8?
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๊ณผ์—ฐ 0.8%์”ฉ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
05:58
If so, that's going to require that our inventions
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ ค๋ฉด, ์ง€๋‚œ 150๋…„ ๊ฐ„ ๊ทธ๋žฌ๋“ฏ์ด
06:01
are as important as the ones that happened
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๋ฐœ๋ช…ํ’ˆ์ด ๋งŽ์ด
06:03
over the last 150 years.
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์ƒ๊ฒจ๋‚˜์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:06
So let's see what some of those inventions were.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐœ๋ช…ํ’ˆ๋“ค์—๋Š” ๋ญ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณผ๊นŒ์š”.
06:10
If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,
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1875๋…„์—๋Š” ๋ฐค์— ์ฑ…์„ ์ฝ์œผ๋ ค๋ฉด
06:14
you needed to have an oil or a gas lamp.
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๊ธฐ๋ฆ„์ด๋‚˜ ๊ฐ€์Šค ๋žจํ”„๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:17
They created pollution, they created odors,
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๊ณต๊ธฐ ์˜ค์—ผ๊ณผ ๋ƒ„์ƒˆ๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜๋ฐ˜๋˜์—ˆ์ฃ .
06:19
they were hard to control, the light was dim,
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์กฐ์ ˆํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํž˜๋“ค๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋น›์€ ์นจ์นจํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:22
and they were a fire hazard.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ™”์žฌ์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜๋„ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ง€์š”.
06:24
By 1929, electric light was everywhere.
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1929๋…„์—๋Š” ์ „๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๋„๋ฆฌ ๋ณด๊ธ‰๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:29
We had the vertical city, the invention of the elevator.
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์—˜๋ ˆ๋ฒ ์ดํ„ฐ์˜ ๋ฐœ๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ๋งจํ•˜ํƒ„ ์ค‘์‹ฌ๋ถ€์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
06:33
Central Manhattan became possible.
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์ˆ˜์ง์œผ๋กœ ๋ป—์€ ๋„์‹œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฒจ๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:36
And then, in addition to that, at the same time,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋™์‹œ์— ๊ทธ์— ๋”ํ•ด
06:39
hand tools were replaced by massive electric tools
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์ˆ˜์ž‘์—… ๋„๊ตฌ๋“ค์ด ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ „๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ์™€
06:43
and hand-powered electric tools,
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๊ณต๊ตฌ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๋€Œ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:45
all achieved by electricity.
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์ „๊ธฐ์˜ ๋ฐœ๋ช… ๋•๋ถ„์ด์ฃ .
06:48
Electricity was also very helpful in liberating women.
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์ „๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ์—ฌ์„ฑ ํ•ด๋ฐฉ์— ํฐ ๋ชซ์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:52
Women, back in the late 19th century,
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19์„ธ๊ธฐ ๋ง ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋“ค์€
06:55
spent two days a week doing the laundry.
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์ผ์ฃผ์ผ์— ์ดํ‹€์„ ๋นจ๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ณด๋ƒˆ์ฃ .
06:58
They did it on a scrub board.
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๋นจ๋ž˜ํŒ์— ๋น„๋ฒผ ๋นค ํ›„,
06:59
Then they had to hang the clothes out to dry.
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๋ฐ”๊นฅ์— ๋„์–ด ๋ง๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:02
Then they had to bring them in.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งˆ๋ฅด๋ฉด ๊ฑท์–ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ์ง€์š”.
07:03
The whole thing took two days out of the seven-day week.
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์ด๊ฑธ ๋‹ค ํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ์ผ์ฃผ์ผ์— ์ดํ‹€์ด ๊ฑธ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:06
And then we had the electric washing machine.
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๊ทธ ํ›„ ์ „๊ธฐ ์„ธํƒ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋“ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
07:10
And by 1950, they were everywhere.
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1950๋…„์— ๋Œ€์ค‘ํ™”๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:13
But the women still had to shop every day,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋งค์ผ ์žฅ์„ ๋ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ์ง€์š”.
07:16
but no they didn't, because electricity
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ „๊ธฐ ๋•ํƒ์— ๊ทธ๋Ÿด ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์—†์–ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:18
brought us the electric refrigerator.
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์ „๊ธฐ ๋ƒ‰์žฅ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ๋“ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
07:21
Back in the late 19th century, the only source of heat in most homes
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19์„ธ๊ธฐ ๋ง๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€๋ฉด ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๊ฐ€์ •์—์„œ ์œ ์ผํ•œ ์—ด ๊ณต๊ธ‰์›์€
07:24
was a big fireplace in the kitchen that was used for cooking and heating.
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์š”๋ฆฌ์™€ ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ์„ ๋‹ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š” ๋ถ€์—Œ ๋‚ด ํฐ ํ™”๋•์ด ์ „๋ถ€์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:29
The bedrooms were cold. They were unheated.
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์นจ์‹ค์€ ์ถ”์› ์ง€์š”. ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ์ด ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:31
But by 1929, certainly by 1950,
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1929๋…„์ด ๋˜์ž, 1950๋…„์—๋Š” ํ™•์‹คํžˆ
07:34
we had central heating everywhere.
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์–ด๋Š ๊ณณ์—๋‚˜ ์ค‘์•™ ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ์ด ๋ณด๊ธ‰๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:38
What about the internal combustion engine,
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1879๋…„์— ๋ฐœ๋ช…๋œ
07:40
which was invented in 1879?
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๋‚ด์—ฐ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์€ ์–ด๋–ค๊ฐ€์š”?
07:42
In America, before the motor vehicle,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๋ฐœ๋ช… ์ด์ „์—๋Š”
07:46
transportation depended entirely on the urban horse,
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๋ง์ด ์œ ์ผํ•œ ๊ตํ†ต ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:50
which dropped, without restraint,
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๋งค์ผ 11 ~ 22ํ‚ฌ๋กœ์˜ ๋Œ€๋ณ€๊ณผ
07:53
25 to 50 pounds of manure on the streets every day
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4.5 ๋ฆฌํ„ฐ์˜ ์†Œ๋ณ€์„ ์ž์œ ๋กญ๊ฒŒ ๊ธธ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์— ๋ฐฐ์„คํ•˜๊ณ 
07:57
together with a gallon of urine.
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๋‹ค๋‹ˆ๋ฉด์„œ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
07:59
That comes out at five to 10 tons daily
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๋„์‹œ ๋‚ด 2.6 ์ œ๊ณฑ ํ‚ฌ๋กœ๋ฏธํ„ฐ ์ •๋„์˜ ๊ตฌ์—ญ๋งˆ๋‹ค
08:02
per square mile in cities.
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๋งค์ผ 5~10 ํ†ค ์ •๋„๋ฅผ ๋ฐฐ์ถœํ•˜๋Š” ์…ˆ์ด์ฃ .
08:04
Those horses also ate up fully one quarter of American agricultural land.
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๋˜ํ•œ ์ด ๋ง๋“ค์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋†์ง€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์˜ 1/4์„ ๋จน์–ด์น˜์› ์ง€์š”.
08:10
That's the percentage of American agricultural land
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๊ทธ๋งŒํผ์˜ ๋†์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋ง์„ ๋จน์ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
08:13
it took to feed the horses.
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์†Œ๋น„๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:15
Of course, when the motor vehicle was invented,
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ž๋™์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ๋ช…๋˜๊ณ ,
08:19
and it became almost ubiquitous by 1929,
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1929๋…„์ด ๋˜์–ด ๋ณดํŽธํ™” ๋˜์ž
08:22
that agricultural land could be used for human consumption
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๋†์ง€๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์†Œ๋น„ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์šฉ์œผ๋กœ
08:25
or for export.
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์ „ํ™˜๋˜์—ˆ์ง€์š”.
08:27
And here's an interesting ratio: Starting from zero in 1900,
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์žฌ๋ฏธ์žˆ๋Š” ๋น„์œจ์ด ํ•˜๋‚˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ, 1990๋…„์— 0๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์„œ
08:30
only 30 years later, the ratio of motor vehicles to the number of households
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๋‹จ 30๋…„ ๋งŒ์— ๊ฐ€๊ตฌ๋‹น ์ž๋™์ฐจ ์†Œ์œ ์œจ์ด
08:35
in the United States reached 90 percent in just 30 years.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ 90%์— ์ด๋ฅด๋ €์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒจ์šฐ 30๋…„๋งŒ์—์š”.
08:42
Back before the turn of the century,
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๋€Œ๊ธฐ ์ด์ „ ์—ฌ์„ฑ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋Š”
08:45
women had another problem.
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๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
08:46
All the water for cooking, cleaning and bathing
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์š”๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ณ , ์ฒญ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ , ์”ป๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ฌผ์€
08:51
had to be carried in buckets and pails in from the outside.
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๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ฐ–์—์„œ ๊ธธ์–ด์™€์•ผ๋งŒ ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
08:55
It's a historical fact that in 1885,
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1885๋…„์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ ๊ธฐ๋ก์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด
08:58
the average North Carolina housewife
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ํ‰๋ฒ”ํ•œ ๋…ธ์Šค์บ๋กค๋ผ์ด๋‚˜ ์ฃผ์˜ ์ฃผ๋ถ€๋Š”
09:00
walked 148 miles a year carrying 35 tons of water.
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์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 238km๋ฅผ ๊ฑธ์–ด 35 ํ†ค์˜ ๋ฌผ์„ ๊ธธ์–ด์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:06
But by 1929, cities around the country
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1929๋…„์ด ๋˜์ž ์ „๊ตญ ๊ณณ๊ณณ์˜ ๋„์‹œ์—๋Š”
09:10
had put in underground water pipes.
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์ง€ํ•˜ ์ƒ์ˆ˜๋„๊ฐ€ ์„ค์น˜๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:13
They had put in underground sewer pipes,
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์ง€ํ•˜ ํ•˜์ˆ˜๋„๋„ ์„ค์น˜ํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
09:16
and as a result, one of the great scourges of the late 19th century,
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๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ 19์„ธ๊ธฐ ๋ง ๋Œ€์žฌ์•™ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ธ
09:22
waterborne diseases like cholera, began to disappear.
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์ฝœ๋ ˆ๋ผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ˆ˜์ธ์„ฑ ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘์ด ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:26
And an amazing fact for techno-optimists
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๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋†€๋ผ์šด ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€
09:29
is that in the first half of the 20th century,
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ์ „๋ฐ˜๋ถ€์—๋Š”
09:32
the rate of improvement of life expectancy
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๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์˜ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œจ์ด
09:35
was three times faster than it was
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์ด์ „ 19์„ธ๊ธฐ ํ›„๋ฐ˜๋ณด๋‹ค
09:38
in the second half of the 19th century.
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์„ธ ๋ฐฐ๋‚˜ ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ์„ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:40
So it's a truism that things can't be more than 100 percent of themselves.
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100% ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์„ฑ์ทจ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‹น์—ฐํžˆ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜์ง€์š”.
09:46
And I'll just give you a few examples.
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๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:48
We went from one percent to 90 percent of the speed of sound.
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์Œ์†์˜ 1%๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 90%์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตํ†ต ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ ,
09:51
Electrification, central heat, ownership of motor cars,
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์ „๊ธฐํ™”, ์ค‘์•™ ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ, ์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ์†Œ์œ ,
09:55
they all went from zero to 100 percent.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋ชจ๋‘ 0%์—์„œ 100%์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:57
Urban environments make people more productive than on the farm.
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๋„์‹œ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์€ ๋†์žฅ๋ณด๋‹ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:01
We went from 25 percent urban to 75 percent
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์ „ํ›„ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ์˜ 25%์—์„œ 75%๋กœ
10:03
by the early postwar years.
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๋„์‹œํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:08
What about the electronic revolution?
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์ „๊ธฐ ํ˜๋ช…์€ ์–ด๋–ค๊ฐ€์š”?
10:10
Here's an early computer.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:12
It's amazing. The mainframe computer was invented in 1942.
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๋†€๋ž๊ฒŒ๋„ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ํ˜•ํƒœ์˜ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ 1942๋…„์— ๋ฐœ๋ช…๋˜์—ˆ์ง€์š”.
10:15
By 1960 we had telephone bills, bank statements
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1960๋…„๋Œ€์—๋Š” ์ „ํ™” ์š”๊ธˆ ์ฒญ๊ตฌ์„œ, ์€ํ–‰ ์ž”๊ณ  ๋‚ด์—ญ์„œ ๋“ฑ์ด
10:20
were being produced by computers.
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์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋กœ ๋ฐœํ–‰๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:22
The earliest cell phones, the earliest personal computers
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์ดˆ๊ธฐ ํœด๋Œ€ํฐ, ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์ธ์šฉ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋Š”
10:24
were invented in the 1970s.
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1970๋…„๋Œ€์— ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:27
The 1980s brought us Bill Gates, DOS,
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1980๋…„๋Œ€์— ๋นŒ ๊ฒŒ์ด์ธ ๊ฐ€ ๋„์Šค(DOS)๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
10:31
ATM machines to replace bank tellers,
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ํ˜„๊ธˆ์ถœ๊ธˆ๊ธฐ(ATM)๊ฐ€ ์€ํ–‰์›์„ ๋Œ€์‹ ํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
10:33
bar code scanning to cut down on labor in the retail sector.
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๊ฐ€๊ฒŒ์—์„œ ๋ฐ”์ฝ”๋“œ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋…ธ๋™๋ ฅ์„ ์ ˆ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:37
Fast forward through the '90s,
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90๋…„๋Œ€๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋ณด๋ฉด,
10:39
we had the dotcom revolution
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๋‹ท์ปด ํ˜๋ช…์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ณ 
10:41
and a temporary rise in productivity growth.
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์ผ์‹œ์ ์ธ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ ํ–ฅ์ƒ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:44
But I'm now going to give you an experiment.
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์ด์ œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•ด๋ณผํ…๋ฐ์š”.
10:46
You have to choose either option A or option B.
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์˜ต์…˜ A ๋‚˜ B ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋ฅผ ํƒํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:49
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:52
Option A is you get to keep everything invented up till 10 years ago.
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์˜ต์…˜ A๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ 10๋…„ ์ „์— ๋ฐœ๋ช…๋œ ์ƒํƒœ๋กœ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑฐ์—์š”.
10:55
So you get Google, you get Amazon,
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๊ตฌ๊ธ€๊ณผ ์•„๋งˆ์กด์ด ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ง€์š”.
10:58
you get Wikipedia, and you get running water and indoor toilets.
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์œ„ํ‚คํ”ผ๋””์•„๋„ ์žˆ๊ณ , ์ƒ์ˆ˜๋„์™€ ์ˆ˜์„ธ์‹ ํ™”์žฅ์‹ค๋„ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
11:01
Or you get everything invented to yesterday,
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ์–ด์ œ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฐœ๋ช…๋œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ฐ–๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
11:03
including Facebook and your iPhone,
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ํŽ˜์ด์Šค๋ถ๊ณผ ์•„์ดํฐ์ด ํฌํ•จ๋˜๊ฒ ์ง€์š”.
11:05
but you have to give up, go out to the outhouse,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํฌ๊ธฐํ•  ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์žˆ์–ด์š”. ์žฌ๋ž˜์‹ ํ™”์žฅ์‹ค์— ๊ฐ€์•ผํ•˜๊ณ ,
11:07
and carry in the water.
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๋ฌผ์„ ๊ธธ์–ด์™€์•ผ ํ•˜์ง€์š”.
11:10
Hurricane Sandy caused a lot of people to lose the 20th century,
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ํ—ˆ๋ฆฌ์ผ€์ธ ์ƒŒ๋””๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด 20์„ธ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์žƒ์—ˆ์–ด์š”.
11:14
maybe for a couple of days,
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์ ์–ด๋„ ๋ฉฐ์น ,
11:15
in some cases for more than a week,
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์ผ๋ถ€๋Š” ์ผ์ฃผ์ผ ์ด์ƒ์„
11:17
electricity, running water, heating, gasoline for their cars,
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์ „๊ธฐ, ์ˆ˜๋„, ๋‚œ๋ฐฉ๊ณผ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ
11:21
and a charge for their iPhones.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•„์ดํฐ์„ ์ถฉ์ „ํ•  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋„ ์žƒ์—ˆ์ง€์š”.
11:24
The problem we face is that all these great inventions,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋งˆ์ฃผํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ ์€ ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ์œ„๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐœ๋ช…ํ’ˆ๋“ค์ด
11:27
we have to match them in the future,
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋งž์ถ”์–ด์ ธ์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ ,
11:30
and my prediction that we're not going to match them
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋งž์ถฐ์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์ œ ์˜ˆ์ธก์œผ๋กœ๋Š”
11:33
brings us down from the original two-percent growth
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์›๋ž˜์˜ 2% ์„ฑ์žฅ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 0.2%๊นŒ์ง€ ๋‚ฎ์•„์ ธ
11:36
down to 0.2, the fanciful curve that I drew you at the beginning.
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๊ฐ•์—ฐ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜์— ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทธ๋ ธ๋˜ ๊ณก์„ ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์•„์งˆ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:41
So here we are back to the horse and buggy.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์ด์ œ ๋ง๊ณผ ๋งˆ์ฐจ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€ ๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
11:44
I'd like to award an Oscar
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์˜ค์Šค์นด์ƒ์„ ์ˆ˜์—ฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:47
to the inventors of the 20th century,
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ๋ฐœ๋ช…๊ฐ€๋“ค,
11:50
the people from Alexander Graham Bell
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์•Œ๋ ‰์‚ฐ๋” ๊ทธ๋ ˆ์ดํ—˜ ๋ฒจ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
11:53
to Thomas Edison to the Wright Brothers,
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ํ† ๋งˆ์Šค ์—๋””์Šจ๊ณผ ๋ผ์ดํŠธ ํ˜•์ œ,
11:55
I'd like to call them all up here,
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์ด๋“ค์„ ์ด๊ณณ์— ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ๋ชจ์œผ๋ฉด
11:56
and they're going to call back to you.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฌผ์œผ๋ฉฐ ๋„์ „์žฅ์„ ๋˜์งˆ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:58
Your challenge is, can you match what we achieved?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฃฌ ๊ฒƒ์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
12:02
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:03
(Applause)
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์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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