Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of growth

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevoditelj: Senzos Osijek Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

That's how we traveled in the year 1900.

Ovako smo putovali 1900. godine.

That's an open buggy. It doesn't have heating.

To je otvoreni jednopreg. Nema grijanje.

It doesn't have air conditioning.

Nema klima uređaj.

That horse is pulling it along

Vuče ga konj

at one percent of the speed of sound,

brzinom koja iznosi jedan posto brzine zvuka,

and the rutted dirt road

i izborana zemljana cesta

turns into a quagmire of mud anytime it rains.

pretvara se u blatnu močvaru svaki put kad kiši.

That's a Boeing 707.

Ovo je Boeing 707.

Only 60 years later, it travels

Samo 60 godina kasnije, on putuje

at 80 percent of the speed of sound,

na 80 posto brzine zvuka

and we don't travel any faster today

i danas ne putujemo ništa brže

because commercial supersonic air travel

jer se komercijalno supersončino putovanje zrakom

turned out to be a bust.

pokazalo kao promašaj.

So I started wondering and pondering,

Počeo sam se pitati i razmišljati,

could it be that the best years of American economic growth

je li moguće da su najbolje godine američkog ekonomskog rasta

are behind us?

iza nas?

And that leads to the suggestion, maybe economic growth

A to sugerira da je možda ekonomski rast

is almost over.

skoro gotov.

Some of the reasons for this are not really very controversial.

Neki od razloga za ovo nisu osobito sporni.

There are four headwinds that are just hitting

Postoje četiri problema koji jednostavno udaraju

the American economy in the face.

američku ekonomiju u lice.

They're demographics, education, debt and inequality.

Oni su: demografija, obrazovanje, dugovi i nejednakost.

They're powerful enough to cut growth in half.

Dovoljno su moćni da prepolove rast.

So we need a lot of innovation to offset this decline.

Trebamo puno inovacija da neutraliziramo taj pad.

And here's my theme: Because of the headwinds,

I ovo je moja tema: ako unatoč problemima

if innovation continues to be as powerful as it has been

inovacija nastavi biti snažna kao što je bila

in the last 150 years, growth is cut in half.

zadnjih 150 godina, rast se smanjuje na polovicu.

If innovation is less powerful,

Ako su inovacije manje snažne,

invents less great, wonderful things,

i izumljuju se manje nevjerojatne stvari,

then growth is going to be even lower than half of history.

rast će biti manji od polovice onoga kroz povijest.

Now here's eight centuries of economic growth.

Ovo je osam stoljeća ekonomskog rasta.

The vertical axis is just percent per year of growth,

Ordinata je postotak godišnjega rasta,

zero percent a year, one percent a year, two percent a year.

nula posto godišnje, jedan posto godišnje, dva posto godišnje.

The white line is for the U.K., and then the U.S.

Bijela linija je Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo, a zatim kada SAD

takes over as the leading nation in the year 1900,

preuzima mjesto vodeće države 1900. godine,

when the line switches to red.

linija postaje crvena.

You'll notice that, for the first four centuries,

Primijetit ćete da, u prvih četiri stoljeća,

there's hardly any growth at all, just 0.2 percent.

postoji jedva ikakav rast, samo 0,2 posto.

Then growth gets better and better.

Zatim rast postaje sve veći i veći.

It maxes out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,

Najveći je u 1930-ima, '40-ima i '50-ima,

and then it starts slowing down, and here's a cautionary note.

a zatim počinje usporavati, i evo opomene.

That last downward notch in the red line

Zadnja silazna crvena linija

is not actual data.

nisu pravi podatci.

That is a forecast that I made six years ago

To je prognoza koju sam napravio prije šest godina

that growth would slow down to 1.3 percent.

da će se rast usporiti na 1,3 posto

But you know what the actual facts are?

Ali znate li kakve su stvarne činjenice?

You know what the growth in per-person income has been

Znate li kakav je rast u prihodu po osobi bio

in the United States in the last six years?

u Sjedinjenim Državama zadnjih šest godina?

Negative.

Negativan.

This led to a fantasy.

Ovo me navelo na razmišljanje.

What if I try to fit a curved line to this historical record?

Što ako pokušam uvrstiti krivulju u ove povijesne podatke?

I can make the curved line end anywhere I wanted,

Mogu nacrtati kraj krivulje kako god želim,

but I decided I would end it at 0.2,

ali odlučio sam da će završiti na 0,2,

just like the U.K. growth for the first four centuries.

baš kao i rast Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva u zadnja četiri stoljeća.

Now the history that we've achieved is that we've grown

Povijest koju smo postigli je da smo rasli

at 2.0 percent per year over the whole period,

dva posto godišnje kroz cijeli period

1891 to 2007,

od 1891. do 2007.

and remember it's been a little bit negative since 2007.

i sjećate se da je rast bio malo negativan od 2007.

But if growth slows down,

Ali ako rast uspori,

instead of doubling our standard of living every generation,

umjesto udvostručenja životnog standarda svake generacije,

Americans in the future can't expect to be twice as well off as their parents,

Amerikanci u budućnosti ne mogu očekivati da će im biti dva puta bolje nego njihovim roditeljima,

or even a quarter [more well off than] their parents.

ili čak i za četvrtinu bolje nego njihovim roditeljima.

Now we're going to change and look at the level of per capita income.

Sada ćemo pogledati razinu prihoda po glavi stanovnika.

The vertical axis now is thousands of dollars in today's prices.

Ordinata je sada u tisućama dolara današnjih cijena.

You'll notice that in 1891, over on the left,

Primijetit ćete da smo 1891., lijevo

we were at about 5,000 dollars.

bili na oko 5.000 dolara.

Today we're at about 44,000 dollars of total output

Danas smo na oko 44.000 dolara ukupne proizvodnje

per member of the population.

po članu populacije.

Now what if we could achieve that historic

Što ako bismo uspjeli postići taj povijesni

two-percent growth for the next 70 years?

rast od dva posto idućih 70 godina?

Well, it's a matter of arithmetic.

To je pitanje aritmetike.

Two-percent growth quadruples your standard of living in 70 years.

Dvopostotni rast učetverostručuje životni standard u 70 godina.

That means we'd go from 44,000 to 180,000.

To znači da ćemo od 44.000 stići do 180.000.

Well, we're not going to do that,

To se neće dogoditi,

and the reason is the headwinds.

a razlog su problemi.

The first headwind is demographics.

Prvi je problem demografija.

It's a truism that your standard of living

Istina je da se životni standard

rises faster than productivity, rises faster than output per hour,

povisuje brže od produktivnosti, povisuje brže od proizvodnje po satu,

if hours per person increased.

ako se broj sati po osobi poveća.

And we got that gift back in the '70s and '80s

Taj smo dar dobili u '70-im i '80-im godinama

when women entered the labor force.

kada su žene ušle u svijet rada.

But now it's turned around.

Ali sada se situacija preokrenula.

Now hours per person are shrinking,

Sada se broj sati po osobi smanjuje,

first because of the retirement of the baby boomers,

kao prvo zbog umirovljenja „baby boom“ generacije,

and second because there's been a very significant

i drugo zato što se dogodilo vrlo značajno

dropping out of the labor force of prime age adult males

smanjenje radne snage mladih odraslih muškaraca

who are in the bottom half of the educational distribution.

koji su u donjoj polovici raspodjele obrazovanja.

The next headwind is education.

Sljedeći je problem edukacija.

We've got problems all over our educational system

Imamo poteškoće u cijelom obrazovnom sustavu

despite Race to the Top.

unatoč „Race to the Top“ fondu.

In college, we've got cost inflation in higher education

Na fakultetima imamo inflaciju troškova visokog obrazovanja

that dwarfs cost inflation in medical care.

koja nadvisuje inflaciju troškova zdravstvene skrbi.

We have in higher education a trillion dollars of student debt,

U visokom obrazovanju imamo trilijun dolara studentskih dugova,

and our college completion rate

a naša razina završetka studija

is 15 points, 15 percentage points below Canada.

je 15 bodova, 15 posto ispod Kanade.

We have a lot of debt.

Imamo puno dugova.

Our economy grew from 2000 to 2007

Naša je ekonomija rasla od 2000. do 2007.

on the back of consumers massively overborrowing.

na leđima masivnog prezaduživanja potrošača.

Consumers paying off that debt is one of the main reasons

Potrošači koji otplaćuju taj dug su jedan od glavnih razloga

why our economic recovery is so sluggish today.

zašto je naš ekonomski oporavak danas toliko usporen.

And everybody of course knows

I naravno da svi znaju

that the federal government debt is growing

da dug federalne vlade

as a share of GDP at a very rapid rate,

kao udio BDP-a raste vrlo brzo,

and the only way that's going to stop is some combination

i jedini način na koji se to može zaustaviti je nekakva kombinacija

of faster growth in taxes or slower growth in entitlements,

bržeg rasta poreza ili sporijeg rasta povlastica,

also called transfer payments.

koje se također zovu transferi.

And that gets us down from the 1.5,

I zbog toga padamo sa 1.5,

where we've reached for education, down to 1.3.

gdje smo bili zbog obrazovanja, na 1.3.

And then we have inequality.

Zatim imamo nejednakost.

Over the 15 years before the financial crisis,

Više od 15 godina prije financijske krize,

the growth rate of the bottom 99 percent

razina rasta donjih 99 posto

of the income distribution was half a point slower

distribucije prihoda bila je pola postotka sporija

than the averages we've been talking about before.

od prosjeka o kojima smo sada pričali.

All the rest went to the top one percent.

Sve je ostalo išlo gornjem jednom posto.

So that brings us down to 0.8.

To nas spušta na 0.8.

And that 0.8 is the big challenge.

I taj 0.8 je veliki izazov.

Are we going to grow at 0.8?

Hoćemo li rasti brzinom od 0.8?

If so, that's going to require that our inventions

To bi zahtijevalo da naši izumi

are as important as the ones that happened

budu jednako važni kao oni koji su se dogodili

over the last 150 years.

kroz zadnjih 150 godina.

So let's see what some of those inventions were.

Pogledajmo koji su neki od tih izuma.

If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,

Ako ste 1875.godine željeli čitati po noći,

you needed to have an oil or a gas lamp.

trebali ste imati uljnu ili plinsku svjetiljku.

They created pollution, they created odors,

One su stvarale zagađenje, stvarale su neugodne mirise,

they were hard to control, the light was dim,

bilo ih je teško kontrolirati, svjetlo je bilo prigušeno,

and they were a fire hazard.

i postojala je opasnost od požara.

By 1929, electric light was everywhere.

Do 1929., električna su svjetla bila posvuda.

We had the vertical city, the invention of the elevator.

Dobili smo vertikalne gradove, izum dizala.

Central Manhattan became possible.

Središnji Manhattan postao je moguć.

And then, in addition to that, at the same time,

I zatim, kao dodatak tome, istovremeno su

hand tools were replaced by massive electric tools

ručne alate zamijenili veliki električni alati

and hand-powered electric tools,

i električni alati kojima se upravljalo rukom,

all achieved by electricity.

sve se to postiglo uz pomoć struje.

Electricity was also very helpful in liberating women.

Struja je bila vrlo korisna u oslobođenju žena.

Women, back in the late 19th century,

Žene su u kasnom 19. stoljeću,

spent two days a week doing the laundry.

provodile dva dana tjedno u pranju rublja.

They did it on a scrub board.

Radile su to na ploči za ribanje.

Then they had to hang the clothes out to dry.

Zatim su morale objesiti odjeću van da se osuši.

Then they had to bring them in.

Onda su ju trebale unijeti unutra.

The whole thing took two days out of the seven-day week.

Cijeli je proces uzimao dva dana od sedmodnevnog tjedna.

And then we had the electric washing machine.

A tada smo dobili električnu perilicu rublja.

And by 1950, they were everywhere.

Do 1950.godine bile su svugdje.

But the women still had to shop every day,

Ali žene su i dalje morale kupovati svaki dan,

but no they didn't, because electricity

ne, nisu, zato što nam je struja donijela

brought us the electric refrigerator.

električni hladnjak.

Back in the late 19th century, the only source of heat in most homes

U kasnom 19. stoljeću, jedini izvor topline za većinu domova

was a big fireplace in the kitchen that was used for cooking and heating.

bio je veliki kamin u kuhinji koji se koristio za kuhanje i grijanje.

The bedrooms were cold. They were unheated.

Spavaće sobe bile su hladne. Nisu se grijale.

But by 1929, certainly by 1950,

No do 1929., svakako do 1950.godine,

we had central heating everywhere.

imali smo centralno grijanje posvuda.

What about the internal combustion engine,

A što je sa strojem s unutarnjim izgaranjem

which was invented in 1879?

izumljenim 1879.godine?

In America, before the motor vehicle,

U Americi, prije motornih vozila,

transportation depended entirely on the urban horse,

prijevoz je potpuno ovisio o gradskim konjima,

which dropped, without restraint,

koji su ispuštali, bez suzdržavanja,

25 to 50 pounds of manure on the streets every day

10 do 20 kilograma izmeta na ulice svaki dan

together with a gallon of urine.

skupa sa četiri litre urina.

That comes out at five to 10 tons daily

To znači 5 do 10 tona svakodnevno

per square mile in cities.

po kvadratnom kilometru u gradovima.

Those horses also ate up fully one quarter of American agricultural land.

Ti su konji također jeli četvrtinu plodova američkog poljoprivrednog zemljišta.

That's the percentage of American agricultural land

To je postotak američkog poljoprivrednog zemljišta

it took to feed the horses.

potreban kako bi se nahranili konji.

Of course, when the motor vehicle was invented,

Naravno, kada su se izumila motorna vozila,

and it became almost ubiquitous by 1929,

koja su postala gotovo sveprisutna do 1929.,

that agricultural land could be used for human consumption

ta se poljoprivredna zemlja mogla iskoristiti za ljudsku prehranu

or for export.

ili za izvoz.

And here's an interesting ratio: Starting from zero in 1900,

I evo zanimljivog omjera: počevši od nule 1900.,

only 30 years later, the ratio of motor vehicles to the number of households

samo 30 godina kasnije, omjer motornih vozila u odnosu na kućanstva

in the United States reached 90 percent in just 30 years.

¸je u Sjedinjenim Državama dosegao 90 posto u samo 30 godina.

Back before the turn of the century,

Prije prijelaza stoljeća,

women had another problem.

žene su imale još jedan problem.

All the water for cooking, cleaning and bathing

Sva voda za kuhanje, čišćenje i kupanje

had to be carried in buckets and pails in from the outside.

morala se nositi u kantama i vrčevima izvana.

It's a historical fact that in 1885,

Povijesna je činjenica da je 1885.,

the average North Carolina housewife

prosječna kućanica iz Sjeverne Karoline

walked 148 miles a year carrying 35 tons of water.

hodala 240 km godišnje noseći 35 tona vode.

But by 1929, cities around the country

Ali do 1929., gradovi po cijeloj državi

had put in underground water pipes.

ukopali su vodene cijevi u zemlju.

They had put in underground sewer pipes,

Ugradili su kanalizacijske cijevi,

and as a result, one of the great scourges of the late 19th century,

i kao rezultat, jedna od velikih pošasti kasnog 19. stoljeća,

waterborne diseases like cholera, began to disappear.

bolesti koje se prenose vodom kao kolera, počele su nestajati.

And an amazing fact for techno-optimists

Nevjerojatna činjenica za tehnološke optimiste

is that in the first half of the 20th century,

je da je u prvoj polovici 20. stoljeća

the rate of improvement of life expectancy

razina poboljšanja očekivane duljine života

was three times faster than it was

bila tri puta brža nego što je bila

in the second half of the 19th century.

u drugoj polovici 19. stoljeća.

So it's a truism that things can't be more than 100 percent of themselves.

Činjenica je da stvari ne mogu nadmašiti same sebe za više od 100 posto.

And I'll just give you a few examples.

Dat ću vam nekoliko primjera.

We went from one percent to 90 percent of the speed of sound.

Došli smo od jedan posto do 90 posto brzine zvuka.

Electrification, central heat, ownership of motor cars,

Elektrifikacija, centralno grijanje, posjedovanje motornih vozila,

they all went from zero to 100 percent.

svi su oni otišli od nule do 100 posto.

Urban environments make people more productive than on the farm.

Urbani okoliši čine ljude produktivnijima nego farme.

We went from 25 percent urban to 75 percent

Došli smo od 25 posto urbanih okoliša do 75 posto

by the early postwar years.

u vremenu do ranih postratnih godina.

What about the electronic revolution?

Što je s elektronskom revolucijom?

Here's an early computer.

Ovo je rano računalo.

It's amazing. The mainframe computer was invented in 1942.

Nevjerojatno je. Osnova računala bila je izmišljena 1942.godine.

By 1960 we had telephone bills, bank statements

Do 1960.godine imali smo telefonske račune, bankovne izvadke

were being produced by computers.

koje su pravila računala.

The earliest cell phones, the earliest personal computers

Prvi mobilni telefoni, prva osobna računala

were invented in the 1970s.

bila su izumljena 1970-ih godina.

The 1980s brought us Bill Gates, DOS,

1980-e su nam donijele Bill Gatesa, DOS,

ATM machines to replace bank tellers,

bankomate koji su zamijenili bankovne službenike,

bar code scanning to cut down on labor in the retail sector.

skeniranje bar koda koje je smanjilo rad u maloprodajnom sektoru.

Fast forward through the '90s,

Ubrzo smo u '90-im

we had the dotcom revolution

imali internetsku revoluciju

and a temporary rise in productivity growth.

i prolazni rast u produktivnosti.

But I'm now going to give you an experiment.

Ali dat ću vam eksperiment.

You have to choose either option A or option B.

Morate izabrati između opcije A ili opcije B.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Option A is you get to keep everything invented up till 10 years ago.

Opcija A je da možete zadržati sve što je izumljeno do prije 10 godina.

So you get Google, you get Amazon,

Tako da imate Google, Amazon,

you get Wikipedia, and you get running water and indoor toilets.

Wikipediju, imate tekuću vodu i zahode u kućama.

Or you get everything invented to yesterday,

Ili dobijete sve što se izumilo do jučer,

including Facebook and your iPhone,

uključujući Facebook i vaš iPhone,

but you have to give up, go out to the outhouse,

ali morate se odreći, otići van

and carry in the water.

i unositi vodu unutra.

Hurricane Sandy caused a lot of people to lose the 20th century,

Uragan Sandy uzrokovao je da mnogi ljudi izgube 20. stoljeće.

maybe for a couple of days,

možda na nekoliko dana,

in some cases for more than a week,

u nekim slučajevima na više od jednog tjedna,

electricity, running water, heating, gasoline for their cars,

struju, tekuću vodu, grijanje, benzin za njihove automobile,

and a charge for their iPhones.

i punjenje za njihove iPhoneove.

The problem we face is that all these great inventions,

Problem s kojim se susrećemo je da sve ove velike izume,

we have to match them in the future,

moramo nastaviti u budućnosti,

and my prediction that we're not going to match them

a moje predviđanje da ih nećemo moći nastaviti

brings us down from the original two-percent growth

dovodi nas od početnog rasta od 2 posto

down to 0.2, the fanciful curve that I drew you at the beginning.

do 0.2, izmišljene krivulje koju sam vam nacrtao na početku.

So here we are back to the horse and buggy.

I evo nas opet kod konja i jednoprega.

I'd like to award an Oscar

Želio bih dodijeliti Oscara

to the inventors of the 20th century,

svim izumiteljima 20. stoljeća,

the people from Alexander Graham Bell

ljudima od Alexandera Graham Bella

to Thomas Edison to the Wright Brothers,

ili Thomasa Edisona do braće Wright,

I'd like to call them all up here,

volio bih da ih sve mogu pozvati ovdje,

and they're going to call back to you.

i oni bi se obratili vama.

Your challenge is, can you match what we achieved?

Vaš je izazov, možete li nastaviti razinom koju smo mi postigli?

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)