Baba Shiv: Sometimes it's good to give up the driver's seat

Translator: Morton Bast Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha

Prevodilac: Stevan S. Lektor: Ivana Korom

I'm going to start on a slightly somber note.

Počeću sa nešto tmurnije strane.

Two thousand and seven, five years ago,

Dve hiljade sedme, pre pet godina,

my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer.

mojoj ženi je postavljena dijagnoza raka dojke,

Stage IIB.

IIB faze.

Sada, gledajući nazad, najstrašniji deo iskustva

Now, looking back, the most harrowing part of that experience

was not just the hospital visits --

nisu bile samo posete bolnici -

these were very painful for my wife, understandably so.

koje su bile izuzetno bolne za moju ženu, što je razumljivo.

It was not even the initial shock of knowing that she had breast cancer

To čak nije ni bio početni šok saznanja

da je imala rak dojke, sa samo 39 godina,

at just 39 years old,

bez ikakve istorije raka u njenoj familiji.

absolutely no history of cancer in her family.

The most horrifying and agonizing part of the whole experience

Najužasniji i najmučniji deo

celog iskustva je bio da smo donosili

was we were making decisions after decisions after decisions

odluku za odlukom za odlukom

that were being thrust upon us.

koje su bacali na nas.

Should it be a mastectomy? Should it be a lumpectomy?

Da li da bude mastektomija? Ili lampektomija?

Should it be a more aggressive form of treatment,

Da li da bude agresivnija terapija,

given that it was stage IIB?

budući da je u IIB fazi?

With all the side effects?

Sa svim propratnim pojavama?

Or should it be a less aggressive form of treatment?

Ili da terapija bude manje agresivna?

Sve ovo je bio pritisak na nas

And these were being thrust upon us by the doctors.

koji su vršili doktori.

Now you could ask this question,

Sada, možete da se zapitate,

zašto su doktori ovo činili?

why were the doctors doing this?

A simplistic answer would be,

Pa, pojednostavljen odgovor bi bio,

the doctors are doing this

da doktori ovo rade da bi sebe pravno zaštitili.

because they want to protect themselves legally.

I think that is too simplistic.

Smatram da je to previše pojednostavljeno.

These are well-meaning doctors,

Sve su to dobronamerni doktori,

some of them have gone on to become very good friends.

od kojih su nam neki postali vrlo dobri prijatelji.

They probably were simply following the wisdom

Oni su verovatno samo sledili tu mudrost

that has come down through the ages,

koja postoji vekovima, tu izreku koja glasi da kada donosite odluke,

this adage that when you're making decisions,

naročito one od važnosti,

especially decisions of importance,

it's best to be in charge, it's best to be in control,

najbolje je biti glavni, najbolje je držati pod kontrolom,

it's best to be in the driver's seat.

najbolje je biti na vozačkom mestu.

And we were certainly in the driver's seat,

I mi smo svakako bili na vozačkom mestu,

making all these decisions.

donoseći sve ove odluke, i mogu vam reći,

And let me tell you -- if some of you have been there,

ako je neko od vas bio na tom mestu,

it was a most agonizing and harrowing experience.

da je to najmučnije i najstrašnije iskustvo.

Which got me thinking.

To me je nateralo na razmišljenje.

I said, is there any validity to this whole adage

Rekoh, da li je opravdana

cela ova izreka da je, kada odlučujete,

that when you're making decisions,

it's best to take the driver's seat,

najbolje je biti na vozačkom mestu,

be in charge, be in control?

biti glavni, držati pod kontrolom?

Or are there contexts where we're far better off

Ili da li postoje situacije kada bi nam bilo mnogo bolje

taking the passenger's seat

na suvozačkom mestu i da poverimo vožnju nekom drugom.

and have someone else drive?

For example, a trusted financial advisor,

Na primer, finansijskom savetniku od poverenja

could be a trusted doctor, etc.

ili doktoru kome verujete, itd.

And since I study human decision making,

I budući da izučavam ljudsku sposobnost donošenja odluka,

I said, I'm going to run some studies

rekao sam, izvršiću par istraživanja

to find some answers.

kako bih našao neke odgovore.

And I'm going to share one of these studies with you today.

Danas ću podeliti neka od ovih istraživanja sa vama.

Dakle, zamislite da ste učesnici ovog istraživanja.

So, imagine that all of you are participants in the study.

I want to tell you that what you're going to do in the study is,

Reći ću vam da ćete u ovom istraživanju

you're going to drink a cup of tea.

popiti šoljicu čaja.

Ako se pitate zašto, reći ću vam za par sekundi.

If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why in a few seconds from now.

You are going to solve a series of puzzles,

Rešavaćete niz zagonetki,

and I'm going to show you examples of these puzzles momentarily.

i sad ću vam dati primere nekih od tih zagonetki.

And the more puzzles you solve,

Što više zagonetki rešite,

the greater the chances that you'll win some prizes.

veća je šansa da ćete osvojiti neke nagrade.

Now, why do you have to consume the tea?

Ali, zašto morate da popijete čaj?

Why? Because it makes a lot of sense:

Zašto? Zato što ima smisla.

Kako bi pravilno rešili ove zagonetke,

In order to solve these puzzles effectively, if you think about it,

ako razmislite, vaš um mora biti istovremeno u dva stanja.

your mind needs to be in two states simultaneously, right?

Je li tako? Mora da bude budan,

It needs to be alert,

for which caffeine is very good.

zašta je kofein vrlo dobar.

Istovremeno, mora da bude staložen.

Simultaneously, it needs to be calm --

not agitated, calm --

Ne uzrujan, već staložen. Zašta je kamilica odlična.

for which chamomile is very good.

Now comes the between-subjects design,

Sada nastupa međuispitanički plan,

the AB design, the AB testing.

AB plan, ili AB test.

Sada ću vas nasumično rasporediti

So what I'm going to do is randomly assign you to one of two groups.

u jednu od dve grupe.

Zamislite da postoji jedna zamišljena linija baš ovde,

So imagine that there is an imaginary line out here,

so everyone here will be group A,

tako da svi ovde će biti u grupi A,

everyone out here will be group B.

a svi ovde će biti u grupi B.

Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do is I'm going to show you these two teas,

Dakle, vama ljudima ovde,

ću sada pokazati ova dva čaja,

and I'll go ahead and ask you to choose your tea.

I sada ću tražiti od vas da izaberete svoj čaj.

So you can choose whichever tea you want.

Možete da izaberete koji od ova dva želite.

You can decide, what is your mental state:

Možete da odlučite, kakvo je vaše umno stanje.

OK, I choose the caffeinated tea,

U redu, ja ću izabrati čaj sa kofeinom,

I choose the chamomile tea.

ja ću izabrati čaj od kamilice.

So you're going to be in charge, you're going to be in control,

Na taj način, vi ste glavni,

you're going to be in the driver's seat.

vi ćete držati pod kontrolom, vi ćete biti na vozačkom mestu.

You folks, I'm going to show you these two teas,

Vama ću pokazati ova dva čaja,

ali nemate mogućnost odabira.

but you don't have a choice.

I'm going to give you one of these two teas,

Daću vam jedan od ova dva čaja,

and keep in mind, I'm going to pick one of these two teas

i imajte na umu, izabraću jedan od njih

at random for you.

nasumično za vas.

And you know that.

I vi to znate.

So if you think about it, this is an extreme-case scenario,

Dakle ako razmislite, a ovo je ekstremni slučaj,

zato što u stvarnom svetu,

because in the real world,

whenever you are taking passenger's seat,

kada god ste na suvozačkom mestu,

very often the driver is going to be someone you trust,

vrlo često će na vozačkom mestu biti neko kome verujete,

an expert, etc.

neko ko je ekspert itd.

So this is an extreme-case scenario.

Dakle ovo je krajni slučaj.

Now, you're all going to consume the tea.

Sada ćete svi popiti čaj.

So imagine that you're taking the tea now,

Zamislite da sada pijete čaj,

sačekaćemo da završite sa čajem.

we'll wait for you to finish the tea.

Daćemo vam dodatnih pet minuta, kako bi sastojak delovao.

We'll give another five minutes for the ingredient to have its effects.

Now you're going to have 30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.

Sada ćete imati 30 minuta da rešite 15 zagonetki.

Here's an example of the puzzle you're going to solve.

Evo primera zagonetke koju ćete rešavati.

Anyone in the audience want to take a stab?

Da li neko iz publike želi da pokuša?

(Publika: Pulpit prev. Govornica.) Baba Šiv: Oho!

Audience member: Pulpit! Baba Shiv: Whoa! OK.

Okej, to je dobro.

That's cool.

Yeah, so what we'd do if we had you who gave the answer

Da, dakle ako biste vi pogađali odgovor, kao učesnik,

as a participant,

we would have calibrated the difficulty level

mi bismo podesili težinu zagonetki na vaš nivo stručnosti.

of the puzzles to your expertise.

Zato što želimo da zagonetke budu teške.

Because we want these puzzles to be difficult.

These are tricky puzzles,

One su varljive zagonetke zato što će vam prvo pasti na pamet

because your first instinct is to say "tulip."

da kažete "lala'', ali ona morate da se odlepite od toga.

And then you have to unstick yourself.

Right?

Je li tako? Dakle podešeno je na vaš nivo stručnosti.

So these have been calibrated to your level of expertise,

because we want this to be difficult,

Zato što mi želimo da bude teško, a uskoro ću vam reći i zašto.

and I'll tell you why, momentarily.

Now, here's another example.

Sada, evo još jednog primera.

Anyone? This is much more difficult.

Bilo ko? Sada je mnogo teže.

Audience member: Embark. BS: Yeah. Wow! OK.

(Publika: Embark prev. Ukrcati) Baba Šiv: Da, opa. Okej.

So, yeah, so this is, again, difficult.

Pa da, ovo je opet teško.

You'll say "kamber," then you'll go, "maker," and all that,

Reći ćete "kambar'', pa ćete pokušati, "tvorac'',

i sve to, pa ćete morati da se odlepite.

and then you can unstick yourself.

U redu, sada imate 30 minuta da rešite 15 zagonetki.

So you have 30 minutes now to solve these 15 puzzles.

Pitanje koje postavljamo ovde

Now, the question we're asking here is, in terms of the outcome --

u smislu ishoda,

and it comes in the number of puzzles solved --

u smislu broja rešenih zagonetki,

will you in the driver's seat end up solving more puzzles

da li ćete vi na mestu vozača

na kraju rešiti više zagonetki,

because you are in control,

zato što imate kontrolu, mogli ste da odaberete čaj,

you could decide which tea you would choose,

ili ćete vama ovde biti bolje,

or would you be better off,

u smislu broja rešenih zagonetki?

in terms of the number of puzzles solved?

And, systemically, what we will show,

I sistemski ćemo pokazati,

across a series of studies,

kroz niz istraživanja,

is that you, the passengers,

da ćete vi, suvozači,

even though the tea was picked for you at random,

iako smo birali čaj umesto vas,

will end up solving more puzzles than you, the drivers.

na kraju rešiti više zagonetki nego vi, vozači.

We also observe another thing,

Takođe ćemo opaziti još jednu stvar,

and that is, you folks not only are solving fewer puzzles,

a to je da, vi ljudi ovde ne samo da rešavate manje zagonetki,

you're also putting less juice into the task -- less effort,

već i da manje snage ulažete u rešavanje zadatka.

Manje se trudite, manje ste uporni, i tako dalje.

you're less persistent, and so on.

Kako znamo to?

How do we know that?

Well, we have two objective measures.

Pa, imamo dva objektivna merila.

One is, what is the time, on average, you're taking

Prvo predstavlja koliko vremena, u proseku, trošite

in attempting to solve these puzzles?

na pokušaje rešavanja zagonetki?

Vi ćete trošiti manje vremena nego vi.

You will spend less time compared to you.

Second, you have 30 minutes to solve these;

Drugo, imate 30 minuta da rešite sve,

are you taking the entire 30 minutes

da li koristite svih 30 minuta ili se predajete

or are you giving up before the 30 minutes elapse?

pre nego što istekne tih 30 minuta?

You will be more likely to give up before the 30 minutes elapse,

Kod vas je veća verovatnoća

da ćete se predati pre isteka 30 minuta nego kod vas.

compared to you.

Dakle, manje se trudite, stoga ishod:

So you're putting in less juice,

and therefore, the outcome: fewer puzzles solved.

manje rešenih zagonetki.

That brings us now to: why does this happen?

To nas dovodi do toga, zašto se ovo dešava?

And under what situations -- when -- would we see this pattern of results

I u kojim situacijama možemo videti ovaj obrazac rezultata

where the passenger is going to show better, more favorable outcomes,

gde će suvozač stvoriti bolje, povoljnije ishode

compared to the driver?

u poređenju sa vozačem?

It all has to do with when you face what I call the INCA.

Sve ima veze sa nečim što ja zovem INCA.

It's an acronym that stands for the nature of the feedback you're getting

To je skraćenica za

vrstu povratne informacije koju dobijate posle donošenja odluke.

after you made the decision.

So if you think about it, in this particular puzzle task --

Razmislite, kao i sa ovim zadatkom sa zagonetkama,

isto bi se moglo desiti tokom ulaganja u berzu,

it could happen in investing in the stock market,

very volatile out there,

vrlo je promenljivo tamo, ili u medicinskoj situaciji -

it could be the medical situation --

povratna informacija je tu istog trenutka.

the feedback here is immediate.

You know the feedback, whether you're solving the puzzles or not.

Znate rezultate, bilo da je reč o zagonetkama ili ne.

Right? Second, it is negative.

Je li tako? Dalje, postoji negativnost.

Remember, the deck was stacked against you,

Setite se, šanse su bile okrenute protiv vas.

in terms of the difficulty level of these puzzles.

Kada je u pitanju težina zagonetki.

And this can happen in the medical domain.

I ovo se može desiti u polju medicine.

For example, very early on in the treatment,

Na primer, vrlo rano tokom terapije,

things are negative, the feedback, before things become positive.

stvari i rezultati su loši, pre nego što sve postane pozitivnije.

Right? It can happen in the stock market.

Je li tako? To može da se desi na berzi.

Promenljiva berza, dobijanje negativnih rezultata je takođe trenutno.

Volatile stock market, getting negative feedback, it is also immediate.

And the feedback in all these cases is concrete, it's unambiguous;

I rezultati u svim ovim slučajevima su čvrsti.

Nisu dvosmisleni; vi znate da li ste rešili zagonetku ili ne.

you know if you've solved the puzzles or not.

Now, the added one,

Dodatno, osim trenutnosti,

apart from this immediacy, negative, this concreteness --

negativnosti, ove čvrstine,

now you have a sense of agency.

vi sada imate svest o sopstvenoj volji.

You were responsible for your decision.

Vi ste bili odgovorni za svoju odluku.

So what do you do?

I šta sada radite?

You focus on the foregone option.

Vi se usresredite na opciju koju ste odbacili.

You say, you know what?

Kažete: "Znaš šta? Trebalo je da izaberem onaj drugi čaj.''

I should have chosen the other tea.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

That casts your decision in doubt,

To baca sumnju na vašu odluku,

reduces the confidence you have in the decision,

smanjuje vaše poverenje u odluku,

the confidence you have in the performance,

smanjuje poverenje u vaš učinak,

the performance in terms of solving the puzzles.

učinak u smislu rešavanja zagonetki.

And therefore less juice into the task,

Stoga se manje snage ulaže u zadatak,

fewer puzzles solved

manje se rešavaju zagonetke i ishod je manje povoljan

and less favorable outcomes compared to you folks.

u poređenju sa ljudima ovde.

And this can happen in the medical domain, if you think about it, right?

I sve ovo može da se desi u oblasti medicine, ako razmislite o tome.

Pacijent je na vozačkom sedištu, na primer.

A patient in the driver's seat, for example.

Manje ulaganja, što znači da su on ili ona lošije fizičke spreme,

Less juice, which means keeping herself or himself

less physically fit, physically active to hasten the recovery process,

dok fizička aktivnost ubrzava oporavak, za šta se često zalaže.

which is what is often advocated.

You probably wouldn't do that.

Vi se verovatno ne biste ponašali tako.

And therefore, there are times when you're facing the INCA,

Stoga, postoje vremena kada se suočavate sa INCA-om,

when the feedback is going to be immediate, negative, concrete

kada će povratna informacija biti trenutna, loša,

čvrsta, i kada imate tu svest o sopstvenoj volji,

and you have the sense of agency,

where you're far better off taking the passenger's seat

kada je mnogo bolje biti na suvozačkom mestu

and have someone else drive.

i pustiti nekog drugog da vozi.

Now, I started off on a somber note.

Počeo sam nešto tmurnije.

I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.

Želeo bih da završim optimističnim tonom.

It has now been five years, slightly more than five years,

Prošlo je pet godina, malo više od pet godina,

and the good news, thank God, is that the cancer is still in remission.

i dobre su vesti, hvala bogu,

da je rak još uvek u remisiji.

So it all ends well.

Tako da se sve završava dobro,

ali jednu stvar koju nisam spomenuo je

But one thing I didn't mention was that very early on into her treatment,

da vrlo rano tokom njenog lečenja,

my wife and I decided that we would take the passenger's seat.

moja žena i ja smo zauzeli suvozačko mesto.

And that made so much of a difference

I to je napravilo toliku razliku

in terms of the peace of mind that came with that;

kada je u pitanju duševni mir koji je sa tim i došao,

we could focus on her recovery.

da smo mogli da se posvetimo njenom oporavku.

We let the doctors make all the decisions

Pustili smo da doktori donose sve odluke,

and take the driver's seat.

da budu na mestu vozača.

Hvala vam.

Thank you.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)