Baba Shiv: Sometimes it's good to give up the driver's seat

Translator: Morton Bast Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha

翻译人员: Li Li 校对人员: Yuguo Zhang

I'm going to start on a slightly somber note.

我想让我的开篇稍显忧郁点。

2007年，也就是5年前，

Two thousand and seven, five years ago,

my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer.

我的妻子被诊断出患有乳癌，

乳癌2期B阶段。

Stage IIB.

现在，回想起当初，那场经历

Now, looking back, the most harrowing part of that experience

最令人心生畏惧的

was not just the hospital visits --

不仅仅是到医院的就诊--

these were very painful for my wife, understandably so.

不难想象，我的妻子经历了多少痛苦。

It was not even the initial shock of knowing that she had breast cancer

也不是最初的恐惧，当得知了年仅39岁的她

患上了乳癌，

at just 39 years old,

她的家族史里也从没人患过这种病。

absolutely no history of cancer in her family.

The most horrifying and agonizing part of the whole experience

整段经历中

最最令人惶恐和痛苦的

was we were making decisions after decisions after decisions

是我们需要做面对一个又一个无法回避

that were being thrust upon us.

且又不得不做的决定。

Should it be a mastectomy? Should it be a lumpectomy?

应该要做乳房切除手术呢？还是做乳房肿瘤切除手术？

Should it be a more aggressive form of treatment,

是否因为是乳癌2期B阶，

given that it was stage IIB?

所以应该采取更激进的治疗方式呢？

With all the side effects?

那些副作用怎么办？

Or should it be a less aggressive form of treatment?

还是要采取稍微保守点的治疗方式呢？

医生的这些问题

And these were being thrust upon us by the doctors.

压得我们喘不过气来。

Now you could ask this question,

那么你或许会问，

医生干嘛要这么做啊？

why were the doctors doing this?

A simplistic answer would be,

可能有人会说，

the doctors are doing this

医生们这样做，是想从法律上保护自己。

because they want to protect themselves legally.

我觉得这答案未免太幼稚了。

I think that is too simplistic.

These are well-meaning doctors,

这些都是善良的医生，

有些还和病人成为了非常好的朋友。

some of them have gone on to become very good friends.

他们只是遵循着一个流传已久道理

They probably were simply following the wisdom

有句老话是这样的，当你在做决定的时候，

that has come down through the ages,

this adage that when you're making decisions,

尤其面临重大决定时，

especially decisions of importance,

it's best to be in charge, it's best to be in control,

最好是将一切置于掌控之中，

it's best to be in the driver's seat.

就如坐在驾驶座上。

And we were certainly in the driver's seat,

而当时我们就坐在“驾驶座”上，

making all these decisions.

操控着一切决定，让我告诉你，

And let me tell you -- if some of you have been there,

如果你们经历过同样的情况，

你会觉得非常苦恼和恐慌。

it was a most agonizing and harrowing experience.

Which got me thinking.

这让我略有所思，

I said, is there any validity to this whole adage

我想，是否应该对这句老话，

设一个界定范围。

that when you're making decisions,

it's best to take the driver's seat,

稳坐“驾驶座”，将一切操控于手掌之中，

be in charge, be in control?

就一定能处于上风吗？

又或者，当我们选择“乘客座”而让别人驾驶时，

Or are there contexts where we're far better off

taking the passenger's seat

是否会出现更好的结果？

and have someone else drive?

For example, a trusted financial advisor,

例如，一个值得信赖的理财顾问，

could be a trusted doctor, etc.

也可以变成一个值得信赖的医生，等等。

And since I study human decision making,

由于我研究的是关于人类的决策制定，

所以我打算做一些调查

I said, I'm going to run some studies

to find some answers.

以此获取一些信息。

And I'm going to share one of these studies with you today.

今天我将与你们一起分享我的研究成果。

现在设想你们都参与到我的研究中来。

So, imagine that all of you are participants in the study.

我会告诉你说你们在这个研究中所需要做的

I want to tell you that what you're going to do in the study is,

就是接下来你们要喝一杯茶。

you're going to drink a cup of tea.

如果你感到不解，没关系，我等下会为你解答。

If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why in a few seconds from now.

You are going to solve a series of puzzles,

你们将要解答一系列的问题，

and I'm going to show you examples of these puzzles momentarily.

我等一下就给你们举一些问题的例子。

你能解答的问题越多，

And the more puzzles you solve,

the greater the chances that you'll win some prizes.

你就有更大的机率赢得奖品。

那么，你为什么要喝这一杯茶？

Now, why do you have to consume the tea?

Why? Because it makes a lot of sense:

为什么？因为这很符合常规，

因为你要更有效地去解答这些问题。

In order to solve these puzzles effectively, if you think about it,

如果你去思考了，你的大脑会同时处于两种状态。

your mind needs to be in two states simultaneously, right?

对吧？它需要处于警惕状态，

It needs to be alert,

for which caffeine is very good.

这时咖啡因是有益的。

同时，它也需要处于冷静的状态。

Simultaneously, it needs to be calm --

not agitated, calm --

不焦虑，要沉着。这时甘菊就能帮上忙了。

for which chamomile is very good.

Now comes the between-subjects design,

现在轮到组间设计了，

the AB design, the AB testing.

所谓的组合设计，组合测试。

我所要做的，就是将你们

So what I'm going to do is randomly assign you to one of two groups.

随机地分成两组。

想象一下这儿有根虚线，

So imagine that there is an imaginary line out here,

so everyone here will be group A,

这边的人是A组，

everyone out here will be group B.

这边的人则是B组。

Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do is I'm going to show you these two teas,

现在，对A组的人，我将要做的，

就是给你们这两种茶，

and I'll go ahead and ask you to choose your tea.

并且要你，我直接就要你

选择一杯茶。你就选你想要的那杯就行。

So you can choose whichever tea you want.

You can decide, what is your mental state:

你可以决定你大脑要哪种状态：

OK, I choose the caffeinated tea,

好了，我决定选有咖啡因的茶，

I choose the chamomile tea.

我决定选有甘菊的那杯茶。

So you're going to be in charge, you're going to be in control,

你将会给自己做主，

掌控自己的决定，坐上那张“驾驶座”。

you're going to be in the driver's seat.

对于B组的人，我同样给你们两种茶，

You folks, I'm going to show you these two teas,

但你们没得做决定。

but you don't have a choice.

I'm going to give you one of these two teas,

我会给你两种茶中的其中一种，

and keep in mind, I'm going to pick one of these two teas

记住，我会亲自随机地

为你们选某一种茶。

at random for you.

And you know that.

而且你们也知道这个规则。

So if you think about it, this is an extreme-case scenario,

所以你会觉得，这是个特殊的案例，

因为在现实中，

because in the real world,

whenever you are taking passenger's seat,

无论何时你坐上“乘客”的位置，

very often the driver is going to be someone you trust,

大多情况下“司机”都是你信任的人，

例如一个专家，等等。所以这是个特殊的案例。

an expert, etc.

So this is an extreme-case scenario.

Now, you're all going to consume the tea.

现在你们都要喝这杯茶。

So imagine that you're taking the tea now,

想象一下你们正在喝茶，

我们会等你喝完的。

we'll wait for you to finish the tea.

我们会留5分钟让茶中的成分发挥作用。

We'll give another five minutes for the ingredient to have its effects.

现在你们有30分钟解答15个问题。

Now you're going to have 30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.

Here's an example of the puzzle you're going to solve.

这是你们要解答的问题的一个例子。 （给下列字母重新排序使之成为有意义的单词）

Anyone in the audience want to take a stab?

有谁想要试一下吗？

（观众;Pulpit,讲坛） Baba Shiv：哇！

Audience member: Pulpit! Baba Shiv: Whoa! OK.

好吧，挺牛的。

That's cool.

Yeah, so what we'd do if we had you who gave the answer

对了，所以如果你答对了，而且你又是参与者，

我们就会根据你的专业知识，

as a participant,

we would have calibrated the difficulty level

of the puzzles to your expertise.

来调整我们问题的难度。

因为我们就是希望问题再难一些。

Because we want these puzzles to be difficult.

这些都是暗藏陷阱的问题，因为你的第一反应会说

These are tricky puzzles,

because your first instinct is to say "tulip."

“tulip郁金香”，然后你自己就会发现不妥并修正。

And then you have to unstick yourself.

Right?

对吧？所以这些都是根据你的知识来调整难度的。

So these have been calibrated to your level of expertise,

因为我们想要它变得有难度，我稍后会告诉你为什么。

because we want this to be difficult,

and I'll tell you why, momentarily.

然后这是另外一个例子。

Now, here's another example.

Anyone? This is much more difficult.

有人想试吗？这个会难些。

Audience member: Embark. BS: Yeah. Wow! OK.

（观众：Embark）BS：对了，哇。好吧。

So, yeah, so this is, again, difficult.

嗯，这个也同样有难度。

You'll say "kamber," then you'll go, "maker," and all that,

你会说“kambar”，然后你又会试“maker”，

都试过后，你会发现不妥并修正。

and then you can unstick yourself.

现在，你们有30分钟来解答这15个问题。

So you have 30 minutes now to solve these 15 puzzles.

我们在这里设置这些问题

Now, the question we're asking here is, in terms of the outcome --

就是想要得出一个结果，

and it comes in the number of puzzles solved --

就是要得出解答出来的问题的数量，

你们是否会在“驾驶座”上

will you in the driver's seat end up solving more puzzles

解答更多的问题，

因为你掌控一切，你可以决定喝哪杯茶，

because you are in control,

you could decide which tea you would choose,

抑或是你们的结果会更好些，

or would you be better off,

解答了更多的问题？

in terms of the number of puzzles solved?

And, systemically, what we will show,

经过一系列的调查研究，

across a series of studies,

我们系统地得出，

是你们，所谓的“乘客们”，

is that you, the passengers,

尽管你们的茶是随机给予的，

even though the tea was picked for you at random,

你们会比那些“驾驶员”解答更多的问题。

will end up solving more puzzles than you, the drivers.

我们同时也观察另一个东西，

We also observe another thing,

and that is, you folks not only are solving fewer puzzles,

就是，A组的人不单问题解答得少，

you're also putting less juice into the task -- less effort,

而且也没在这个任务上花多大的心思。

没那么努力，没那么有毅力，等等。

you're less persistent, and so on.

你是怎么得出来的？

How do we know that?

Well, we have two objective measures.

我们有两个客观指标。

One is, what is the time, on average, you're taking

一个是，在试图解答问题的时候

in attempting to solve these puzzles?

你们平均花了多长时间？

A组的人花的时间比B组的人要少。

You will spend less time compared to you.

Second, you have 30 minutes to solve these;

另一个是，你们有30分钟去解答问题，

are you taking the entire 30 minutes

你们是完整用完30分钟呢，还是

or are you giving up before the 30 minutes elapse?

在半途就放弃了呢？

A组的人比B组的人更容易半途而废。

You will be more likely to give up before the 30 minutes elapse,

compared to you.

所以，A组的人不怎么重视，得出来的结果是：

So you're putting in less juice,

and therefore, the outcome: fewer puzzles solved.

解答的问题比另一组少。

That brings us now to: why does this happen?

现在我们会疑惑，怎么是这样呢？

And under what situations -- when -- would we see this pattern of results

在什么情况下，我们能够得出这样的答案

where the passenger is going to show better, more favorable outcomes,

那就是“乘客”所展示出来的结果

compared to the driver?

要比’驾驶员”的还好？

It all has to do with when you face what I call the INCA.

这就和你所面临的INCA有关了。

It's an acronym that stands for the nature of the feedback you're getting

INCA这个缩写意思是

做决定后你所得到的成果的本质

after you made the decision.

So if you think about it, in this particular puzzle task --

细想一下，这种解谜游戏，

也可能发生在股票的投资中，

it could happen in investing in the stock market,

很反复无常，它也可能出现在医疗场景里--

very volatile out there,

it could be the medical situation --

产生的结果是即时的。

the feedback here is immediate.

You know the feedback, whether you're solving the puzzles or not.

不管你解不解这个迷，你都知道结果。

Right? Second, it is negative.

对吧？其次，是结果都是消极的。

Remember, the deck was stacked against you,

记住，因为这些问题具有难度，

in terms of the difficulty level of these puzzles.

所以这其实对你很不利。

And this can happen in the medical domain.

这种情况会在医学界发生。

例如，在最初的治疗阶段，

For example, very early on in the treatment,

things are negative, the feedback, before things become positive.

在事情有好转之前，一切结果都是很消极的。

Right? It can happen in the stock market.

对吧？这同样也适用于股票市场。

反复无常的股票市场，得到消极的结果也是即时的。

Volatile stock market, getting negative feedback, it is also immediate.

在这些例子中，结果都是很具体的

And the feedback in all these cases is concrete, it's unambiguous;

没有多大争议；你知道你自己是否解开这些迷。

you know if you've solved the puzzles or not.

Now, the added one,

另外，除开这种即时性，

apart from this immediacy, negative, this concreteness --

消极的，这种具体性，

now you have a sense of agency.

你还会有一种背负感。

You were responsible for your decision.

你需要对你的决定负责。

So what do you do?

那你该怎么办？

You focus on the foregone option.

你会专注在先前的选项。

You say, you know what?

你会说，你知道吗？我本应该选另一杯茶。

I should have chosen the other tea.

（笑声）

(Laughter)

That casts your decision in doubt,

这让你怀疑自己的选择，

减少了你做决定的自信，

reduces the confidence you have in the decision,

the confidence you have in the performance,

在解答问题时，

减少了你在表现中的自信，

the performance in terms of solving the puzzles.

以致你对这项任务不怎么投入，

And therefore less juice into the task,

fewer puzzles solved

相比之下，你就比另一组的少解答了问题，结果也不尽人意。

and less favorable outcomes compared to you folks.

如果你仔细琢磨，这种情况在医学界是会发生的。

And this can happen in the medical domain, if you think about it, right?

对吧？例如，一个病人一旦坐上了“驾驶座”，

A patient in the driver's seat, for example.

就会变得力不从心，

Less juice, which means keeping herself or himself

less physically fit, physically active to hasten the recovery process,

身体也每况愈下，对身体的恢复也大打折扣，

which is what is often advocated.

而这却总被人拥护提倡。你可能就不会这样做了。

You probably wouldn't do that.

And therefore, there are times when you're facing the INCA,

因此，有时候你需要面对INCA（决定后所得到的成果的本质），

when the feedback is going to be immediate, negative, concrete

需面对即时且消极的，具体的，

使你产生背负感的结果，

and you have the sense of agency,

where you're far better off taking the passenger's seat

而此时你稳坐“乘客座”并让他人“代驾”

and have someone else drive.

效果则会截然相反。

Now, I started off on a somber note.

我一开始

用了忧郁的开篇。

I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.

我现在想用乐观点的色调来结尾。

已经过5年了，5年多了吧，

It has now been five years, slightly more than five years,

and the good news, thank God, is that the cancer is still in remission.

谢天谢地，好消息是，

病情得到了缓解。

So it all ends well.

所以还是挺满意的，

但我还忘了提一件事

But one thing I didn't mention was that very early on into her treatment,

就是在她治疗的初期，

my wife and I decided that we would take the passenger's seat.

我妻子和我决定坐上“乘客座”。

带着内心的平静“出发”，

And that made so much of a difference

in terms of the peace of mind that came with that;

心思只放在她的康复上面，

所以我们才有如今的成果

we could focus on her recovery.

我们让医生为我们做所有的决定，

We let the doctors make all the decisions

and take the driver's seat.

让他当我们的“司机”。

谢谢。

Thank you.

(Applause)

（掌声）