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00:00
Translator: Morton Bast
Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha
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譯者: jimi charlie
審譯者: Regina Chu
00:15
I'm going to start
on a slightly somber note.
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我想從有點嚴肅的話題說起。
2007年,5年前,
00:19
Two thousand and seven, five years ago,
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00:22
my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer.
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我太太診斷出乳癌,
第二期B階段。
00:26
Stage IIB.
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現在回想起,那過程最難熬階段
00:29
Now, looking back, the most
harrowing part of that experience
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現在回想起,那過程最難熬階段
00:32
was not just the hospital visits --
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不是醫院就診過程—
00:34
these were very painful
for my wife, understandably so.
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可理解的,我太太在這過程中吃了不少苦。
00:37
It was not even the initial shock
of knowing that she had breast cancer
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(最難熬階段)甚至也不是最初的震驚階段,
得知她在39歲的年紀就得了乳癌,
00:40
at just 39 years old,
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她的家庭絕對沒有癌症病史。
00:42
absolutely no history
of cancer in her family.
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00:45
The most horrifying and agonizing part
of the whole experience
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治療癌症過程中最惶恐和折磨的階段
治療癌症過程中最惶恐和折磨的階段
00:49
was we were making decisions
after decisions after decisions
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是我們做完一決定後又被迫去做另一個決定。
00:53
that were being thrust upon us.
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是我們做完一決定後又被迫去做另一個決定。
00:55
Should it be a mastectomy?
Should it be a lumpectomy?
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該做乳房切除術嗎?該做乳房腫瘤切除術嗎?
00:58
Should it be a more
aggressive form of treatment,
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在乳癌第二期B階段,該做更積極的治療方式嗎?
01:00
given that it was stage IIB?
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在乳癌第二期B階段,該做更積極的治療方式嗎?
01:02
With all the side effects?
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產生副作用怎麼辦?
01:04
Or should it be a less
aggressive form of treatment?
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或是該做沒那麼積極的治療方式?
而且我們被醫生的這些壓力壓得喘不過氣來。
01:07
And these were being thrust
upon us by the doctors.
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而且我們被醫生的這些壓力壓得喘不過氣來。
01:11
Now you could ask this question,
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現在你可能會問這個問題,
為什麼醫生要這樣做呢?
01:13
why were the doctors doing this?
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01:14
A simplistic answer would be,
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現在有人可能會說,
01:16
the doctors are doing this
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醫生會這樣做是為了要合法的保護自己嘛。
01:17
because they want to protect
themselves legally.
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我覺得這是太幼稚的想法。
01:21
I think that is too simplistic.
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01:22
These are well-meaning doctors,
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這些都是有良心的醫生,
其中有些醫生進而和病人成為要好的朋友。
01:24
some of them have gone on
to become very good friends.
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他們可能只是遵循著那些隨年紀所增長的經驗
01:27
They probably were simply
following the wisdom
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有句老話這樣說的,當你作決定時,
01:29
that has come down through the ages,
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01:31
this adage that when
you're making decisions,
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特別是重要決定時,
01:33
especially decisions of importance,
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01:34
it's best to be in charge,
it's best to be in control,
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最好是要掌控一切,
01:37
it's best to be in the driver's seat.
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如同坐在駕駛座般。
01:40
And we were certainly
in the driver's seat,
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而且我們的確是如同坐在駕駛座,
01:42
making all these decisions.
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做所有決定,讓我來告訴你,
01:43
And let me tell you --
if some of you have been there,
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如果你們有人曾經處於那情況下,
都會覺得這是最惶恐和折磨的過程。
01:46
it was a most agonizing
and harrowing experience.
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01:49
Which got me thinking.
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這讓我開始思索一些事。
01:51
I said, is there any validity
to this whole adage
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我想,有任何方式來驗證
那句老話,當你作決定時,
01:54
that when you're making decisions,
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01:56
it's best to take the driver's seat,
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最好要如同坐在駕駛座,
01:58
be in charge, be in control?
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一切置於掌控?
或者坐在乘客座讓其他人駕駛的方式
02:00
Or are there contexts
where we're far better off
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02:03
taking the passenger's seat
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會比較好一點?
02:05
and have someone else drive?
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02:06
For example, a trusted financial advisor,
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比如,變成一個信任的理財顧問般,
02:08
could be a trusted doctor, etc.
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可能是一個可以信任的醫生,等等。
02:11
And since I study human decision making,
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而且由於我研究人類決策學,
所以我想我要作一些研究
02:14
I said, I'm going to run some studies
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02:16
to find some answers.
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找出答案。
02:18
And I'm going to share one
of these studies with you today.
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而我今天要和你們分享這研究的一些結果。
所以,想像你們都是這研究的實驗對象。
02:21
So, imagine that all of you
are participants in the study.
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我要告訴你們在這實驗中你們所要做的就是
02:25
I want to tell you that
what you're going to do in the study is,
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你們要喝杯茶。
02:28
you're going to drink a cup of tea.
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如果你們好奇原因,我待會幾秒鐘後會告訴你們。
02:31
If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why
in a few seconds from now.
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02:34
You are going to solve
a series of puzzles,
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你要去解開一連串的謎題,
02:37
and I'm going to show you examples
of these puzzles momentarily.
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我馬上會給你看一些例子。
你解開越多謎題,
02:41
And the more puzzles you solve,
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02:42
the greater the chances
that you'll win some prizes.
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你贏得獎金的機會就越大。
那麼,為什麼你們必須喝茶呢?
02:46
Now, why do you have to consume the tea?
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02:48
Why? Because it makes a lot of sense:
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為什麼呢? 因為這麼做相當有意義。
為了要正確的解開這些謎題,
02:50
In order to solve these puzzles
effectively, if you think about it,
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你們想一下,你的大腦必需要同時處在兩個狀態。
02:53
your mind needs to be in two states
simultaneously, right?
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對吧 ? 必需要清醒,
02:57
It needs to be alert,
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02:59
for which caffeine is very good.
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那麼,要喝咖啡因的茶比較好。
同時,必需要保持鎮定。
03:02
Simultaneously, it needs to be calm --
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03:04
not agitated, calm --
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不能焦慮,要鎮定。那麼,要喝含洋甘菊的茶比較好。
03:06
for which chamomile is very good.
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03:10
Now comes the between-subjects design,
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現在開始 “受試者間設計”,
03:13
the AB design, the AB testing.
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亦即基本AB設計,AB測試。
所以我將你們隨機分成兩組。
03:15
So what I'm going to do is randomly
assign you to one of two groups.
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所以我將你們隨機分成兩組。
所以想像有條想像的線在這裡。
03:19
So imagine that there is
an imaginary line out here,
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03:21
so everyone here will be group A,
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所以這邊的人是組別A,
03:24
everyone out here will be group B.
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而這邊的人為組別B。
03:27
Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do
is I'm going to show you these two teas,
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現在,對你們這群人,我要做的就是
我要給你們這兩種茶,
03:32
and I'll go ahead and ask you
to choose your tea.
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而且我要你們
選擇一種茶。所以你們能選擇要喝哪種茶。
03:35
So you can choose whichever tea you want.
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03:37
You can decide, what is your mental state:
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你們能決定,要讓頭腦處於什麼狀態:
03:39
OK, I choose the caffeinated tea,
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好的,我要選擇含咖啡因的茶,
03:41
I choose the chamomile tea.
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我要選擇含洋甘菊的茶。
03:42
So you're going to be in charge,
you're going to be in control,
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所以你將可掌握一切,
控制一切,你將如同坐在駕駛座。
03:45
you're going to be in the driver's seat.
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你們這群人,我會給你們看這兩種茶,
03:48
You folks, I'm going to show you
these two teas,
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但你們沒有選擇權。
03:51
but you don't have a choice.
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03:53
I'm going to give you
one of these two teas,
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我要給你們其中一種茶,
03:55
and keep in mind, I'm going
to pick one of these two teas
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記著,我是隨機挑一種茶給你。
記著,我是隨機挑一種茶給你。
03:58
at random for you.
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03:59
And you know that.
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而且你知道這過程。
04:01
So if you think about it,
this is an extreme-case scenario,
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所以如果你思考一下,這是一種極端條件的情境,
因為在現實世界中,
04:04
because in the real world,
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04:05
whenever you are taking passenger's seat,
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每當你坐在乘客座時,
04:07
very often the driver is going
to be someone you trust,
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駕駛人常常是你所信賴的人,
經驗豐富的人。所以說這是一個極端狀況的情境。
04:10
an expert, etc.
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04:11
So this is an extreme-case scenario.
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04:14
Now, you're all going to consume the tea.
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現在,你們都要喝下這杯茶。
04:19
So imagine that you're taking the tea now,
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所以想像一下你們正在喝茶,
我們會等你喝完茶的。
04:21
we'll wait for you to finish the tea.
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我們會再等你五分鐘等茶發揮作用。
04:23
We'll give another five minutes
for the ingredient to have its effects.
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接著你們有30分鐘的時間解15個謎題。
04:27
Now you're going to have
30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.
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04:32
Here's an example of the puzzle
you're going to solve.
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這是你們要解的謎題。
04:35
Anyone in the audience
want to take a stab?
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有人要嘗試嗎?
(聽眾: Pulpit) Baba Shiv: 哇!
04:38
Audience member: Pulpit!
Baba Shiv: Whoa! OK.
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好酷喔。
04:40
That's cool.
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04:41
Yeah, so what we'd do if we had
you who gave the answer
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所以我們會做的就是如果你答對了,
基於你是參予者的緣故,我們會參考你的程度校正難度。
04:44
as a participant,
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04:45
we would have calibrated
the difficulty level
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04:47
of the puzzles to your expertise.
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基於你是參予者的緣故,我們會參考你的程度校正難度。
因為我們想要問題難一點。
04:50
Because we want
these puzzles to be difficult.
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這些是暗藏陷阱的問題,因為你第一個直覺反應
04:52
These are tricky puzzles,
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04:53
because your first instinct
is to say "tulip."
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會說是"tulip",接著你會覺得不對。
04:56
And then you have to unstick yourself.
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04:59
Right?
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對吧? 所以這些問題已經參考你們程度調得更難了。
05:00
So these have been calibrated
to your level of expertise,
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因為我們想要讓謎題變難。而我待會告訴你們原因。
05:03
because we want this to be difficult,
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05:05
and I'll tell you why, momentarily.
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現在,這裡有另一個例子。
05:07
Now, here's another example.
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05:09
Anyone? This is much more difficult.
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有人想嘗試嗎?這比較難。
05:11
Audience member: Embark.
BS: Yeah. Wow! OK.
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(聽眾:Embark) BS:耶,哇,好的。
05:13
So, yeah, so this is, again, difficult.
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所以,而這也是一個困難的問題。
05:15
You'll say "kamber," then you'll go,
"maker," and all that,
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你會說”kambar” 接著你必定會說,”maker”,
說完那些後,你會覺得說的不對。
05:18
and then you can unstick yourself.
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好的,所以現在你有30分鐘來解決這15個謎題。
05:20
So you have 30 minutes now
to solve these 15 puzzles.
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現在,我的問題是
05:24
Now, the question we're asking
here is, in terms of the outcome --
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就結果而言,
05:28
and it comes in the number
of puzzles solved --
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就解開的謎題數而言,
坐在”駕駛座”上的你們
05:30
will you in the driver's seat
end up solving more puzzles
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會解開更多謎題嗎,
因為你們可以將一切置於掌控,決定喝哪種茶,
05:35
because you are in control,
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05:36
you could decide which tea
you would choose,
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或是你們(乘客)會表現的比較好,
05:38
or would you be better off,
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就解開的謎題數而言?
05:40
in terms of the number of puzzles solved?
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05:42
And, systemically, what we will show,
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我們將系統性的呈現,
05:45
across a series of studies,
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透過一系列的研究,
就是你們,這些”乘客”,
05:47
is that you, the passengers,
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即使你們無法選擇要喝哪種茶,
05:49
even though the tea
was picked for you at random,
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但所解開的謎題數將比你們這些"駕駛者"更多。
05:53
will end up solving
more puzzles than you, the drivers.
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我們也觀察到其它現像,
05:57
We also observe another thing,
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05:59
and that is, you folks not only
are solving fewer puzzles,
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也就是,你們(駕駛座的人)所解開的謎題數不但比較少,
06:02
you're also putting less juice
into the task -- less effort,
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而且放在解謎題上的精力也較少。
沒那麼的努力,沒那麼有毅力,等等。
06:06
you're less persistent, and so on.
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你怎麼知道呢?
06:08
How do we know that?
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06:09
Well, we have two objective measures.
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恩,我們有兩個客觀的評估方式。
06:11
One is, what is the time,
on average, you're taking
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首先,你花在解謎的時間平均有多少?
06:14
in attempting to solve these puzzles?
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首先,你花在解謎的時間平均有多少?
和你們(這些乘客)相比,你們(這些駕駛)花較少的時間。
06:17
You will spend less time compared to you.
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06:20
Second, you have
30 minutes to solve these;
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第二,你們有30分鐘解謎,
06:22
are you taking the entire 30 minutes
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你們會用掉30分鐘嗎,或著你們會在30分鐘之前放棄呢?
06:23
or are you giving up
before the 30 minutes elapse?
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你們會用掉30分鐘嗎,或著你們會在30分鐘之前放棄呢?
和你們(這些乘客)相比,你們(這些駕駛)容易提前放棄。
06:26
You will be more likely to give up
before the 30 minutes elapse,
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06:30
compared to you.
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所以你們(這些駕駛)放在解謎上的精力較少,所以結果是:
06:31
So you're putting in less juice,
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06:33
and therefore, the outcome:
fewer puzzles solved.
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所解開的謎題數較少。
06:36
That brings us now to:
why does this happen?
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現在,讓我們來看看,為什麼會這樣呢?
06:41
And under what situations -- when --
would we see this pattern of results
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而且在什麼情況下,我們會看到這樣的結果,
06:45
where the passenger is going to show
better, more favorable outcomes,
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也就是,乘客相較於駕駛會表現得比較好?
06:49
compared to the driver?
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也就是,乘客相較於駕駛會表現得比較好?
06:52
It all has to do with when you face
what I call the INCA.
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這都和當你們面臨(問題)所產生的INCA有關係。
06:57
It's an acronym that stands for the nature
of the feedback you're getting
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這是一個縮寫,代表著
當你們作完決定後,你們所得到的結果蘊含的特性。
07:01
after you made the decision.
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07:03
So if you think about it,
in this particular puzzle task --
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所以,如果你在這個猜謎實驗中檢視一下這些(特性),
(你會發現)股票投資市場也可能會出現這些特性,
07:06
it could happen in investing
in the stock market,
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很反覆無常,醫療情境也有這些(特性)--
07:08
very volatile out there,
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07:09
it could be the medical situation --
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(做完決定後)都立即得知結果。
07:11
the feedback here is immediate.
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07:13
You know the feedback,
whether you're solving the puzzles or not.
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不管你解多少謎題,你都會立即知道是否解開謎題。
07:16
Right? Second, it is negative.
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沒錯吧? 第二,所得到的結果是消極的。
07:19
Remember, the deck
was stacked against you,
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回想一下,當初所設計的謎題難度,
07:21
in terms of the difficulty
level of these puzzles.
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這些問題都是用來難倒你的。
07:24
And this can happen in the medical domain.
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而且這情況可能會發生在醫界。
例如,一開始所提的醫療過程,
07:26
For example, very early on
in the treatment,
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07:28
things are negative, the feedback,
before things become positive.
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狀況未好轉前一切都是消極的。
07:31
Right? It can happen in the stock market.
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沒錯吧? 這也可能會發生在股票市場。
變動的股市常發生沒獲利情況,而這也是立即性的。
07:34
Volatile stock market, getting negative
feedback, it is also immediate.
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而所有這些例子中(做完決定後)產生的結果都是具體的。
07:37
And the feedback in all these cases
is concrete, it's unambiguous;
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這些結果並不模菱兩可; 你都可知道是否解開謎題。
07:41
you know if you've solved
the puzzles or not.
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07:43
Now, the added one,
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現在,再提一點,除了這種立即的特性,
07:45
apart from this immediacy,
negative, this concreteness --
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消極的特性,這種具體的特性外,
07:50
now you have a sense of agency.
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你還會感受到一種背負感。
07:54
You were responsible for your decision.
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你要對所做的決定負責。
07:57
So what do you do?
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所以你會做什麼呢?
07:58
You focus on the foregone option.
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你會將精力放在先前的選擇。
08:01
You say, you know what?
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那麼你知道嗎? 你會說什麼嗎?我當初應該選另一種茶的。
08:03
I should have chosen the other tea.
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(笑聲)
08:05
(Laughter)
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08:08
That casts your decision in doubt,
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那會讓你懷疑自己的決定,
降低做決定的信心,
08:11
reduces the confidence
you have in the decision,
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08:13
the confidence you have
in the performance,
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降低在表現時的信心,
就解謎上的表現。
08:16
the performance in terms
of solving the puzzles.
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因此放較少的精力在問題上,
08:18
And therefore less juice into the task,
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08:20
fewer puzzles solved
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相較之下,(駕駛)解開謎題數也就較少,導致不佳結果。
08:22
and less favorable outcomes
compared to you folks.
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而且如果你思考一下,這現象也可能發生在醫界。
08:25
And this can happen in the medical
domain, if you think about it, right?
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沒錯吧? 例如,坐在駕駛座的病人。
08:29
A patient in the driver's
seat, for example.
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(付出的)精力變得較少,這意味著在維持體態上
08:31
Less juice, which means
keeping herself or himself
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08:33
less physically fit, physically active
to hasten the recovery process,
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較不那麼努力,較不積極在治療的過程,
08:37
which is what is often advocated.
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這情況常被人提到。你們也許不會那麼做。
08:38
You probably wouldn't do that.
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08:40
And therefore, there are times
when you're facing the INCA,
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因此,有好幾次你們會面臨到INCA的狀況,
08:46
when the feedback is going
to be immediate, negative, concrete
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當結果立即產生,出現消極情況,
產生具體的結果,你感到背負感,
08:50
and you have the sense of agency,
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08:52
where you're far better off
taking the passenger's seat
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從中得知,如果你坐在乘客座,處境會比較好,
08:55
and have someone else drive.
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讓其他人駕駛。
08:58
Now, I started off on a somber note.
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我從嚴肅的話題起頭。
我從嚴肅的話題起頭。
09:02
I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.
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我想要以愉快的內容作結。
(太太的癌症治療)到目前已經五年多了,
09:04
It has now been five years,
slightly more than five years,
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09:07
and the good news, thank God,
is that the cancer is still in remission.
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好消息是,感謝上帝,
癌症的症狀仍然在減輕中。
09:13
So it all ends well.
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所以,這一切到最後都蠻好的。
但有件事我沒有提到,
09:16
But one thing I didn't mention
was that very early on into her treatment,
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一開始的就醫過程,
09:22
my wife and I decided
that we would take the passenger's seat.
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我太太和我決定坐在乘客的座位上,
而那產生截然不同的結果,
09:26
And that made so much of a difference
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09:28
in terms of the peace of mind
that came with that;
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我們帶著平靜的心情 "出發",
將注意力放在身體的復原上。
09:31
we could focus on her recovery.
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我們讓醫生做所有的決定,
09:33
We let the doctors make all the decisions
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09:35
and take the driver's seat.
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讓醫生坐在駕駛座。
謝謝。
09:38
Thank you.
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09:39
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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