Baba Shiv: Sometimes it's good to give up the driver's seat

ババ・シフ: 運転は任せた方が良いこともある

Translator: Morton Bast Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha

翻訳: Masaki Uchihashi 校正: Natsuhiko Mizutani

I'm going to start on a slightly somber note.

少し重い話になりますが

2007年―今から５年ほど前に

Two thousand and seven, five years ago,

my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer.

家内が乳がんと診断されました

ステージ IIB でした

Stage IIB.

いま当時を振り返って一番

Now, looking back, the most harrowing part of that experience

苦しかったことは

was not just the hospital visits --

病院に行くことではありません

these were very painful for my wife, understandably so.

もちろん本人がつらいのは わかります

It was not even the initial shock of knowing that she had breast cancer

乳がんだと知らされた―

ショックでもありません まだ39歳で

at just 39 years old,

癌の家族歴もなかったのです

absolutely no history of cancer in her family.

The most horrifying and agonizing part of the whole experience

この一連の経験で もっとも恐ろしくて

苦しかったのは

was we were making decisions after decisions after decisions

決断を次から次へと

that were being thrust upon us.

求められ続けたことです

Should it be a mastectomy? Should it be a lumpectomy?

乳房切除をすべきか？ それとも乳腺腫瘤の摘出か？

Should it be a more aggressive form of treatment,

ステージ IIB なのだから

given that it was stage IIB?

積極的な治療に委ねるべきなのか？

With all the side effects?

副作用があっても？

Or should it be a less aggressive form of treatment?

それとも そこまで積極的でなくてもいいのか？

次から次へと決断を求めてくるのが

And these were being thrust upon us by the doctors.

医師なのです

Now you could ask this question,

不思議に思うかもしれません

医師はなぜ こうしたのか？

why were the doctors doing this?

A simplistic answer would be,

単純に考えると医者自身が

the doctors are doing this

法的に自分を守りたいためですが

because they want to protect themselves legally.

実はそんな単純な話ではありません

I think that is too simplistic.

These are well-meaning doctors,

彼らは善意の医者であり

何人かとは良い友人になりました

some of them have gone on to become very good friends.

きっと長年受け継がれてきた

They probably were simply following the wisdom

古い考え方に従ったまでなのでしょう

that has come down through the ages,

this adage that when you're making decisions,

「意思決定 特に重責を伴う意思決定は

especially decisions of importance,

it's best to be in charge, it's best to be in control,

他人の判断に任せずに 自分の意思で決めよ

it's best to be in the driver's seat.

つまり助手席に座るよりも 運転席に乗るべきである」

And we were certainly in the driver's seat,

そこで我々は運転席に座らせられ

making all these decisions.

多くの意思決定を下すことになったのです

And let me tell you -- if some of you have been there,

同じ経験をされた方もいるでしょうが

何よりも苦しくて恐ろしい経験となりました

it was a most agonizing and harrowing experience.

Which got me thinking.

そして考えてみました―

I said, is there any validity to this whole adage

決断をすることに関する考え方は

本当に正しいのだろうか？

that when you're making decisions,

it's best to take the driver's seat,

運転席に乗ることが一番良いのか？ 主導権を握って

be in charge, be in control?

制御するのが良いのか

逆に 状況によっては我々が助手席におさまり

Or are there contexts where we're far better off

taking the passenger's seat

誰かに運転席を任せた方が良い場合もあるのでは？

and have someone else drive?

For example, a trusted financial advisor,

例えば 信頼できる金融専門家や

could be a trusted doctor, etc.

信頼できる医者などです

And since I study human decision making,

私は「意思決定の仕組み」を研究していますので

いくつかの実験を行い

I said, I'm going to run some studies

to find some answers.

答えを導き出すことにしました

And I'm going to share one of these studies with you today.

早速 ここで研究成果のひとつをご紹介します

皆さんは その実験に参加しているつもりで聞いてください

So, imagine that all of you are participants in the study.

この実験では皆さんに

I want to tell you that what you're going to do in the study is,

まず 一杯のお茶を飲んでいただきます

you're going to drink a cup of tea.

お茶を飲む理由は後で説明します

If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why in a few seconds from now.

You are going to solve a series of puzzles,

そしてパズルをいくつか解いてもらいます

and I'm going to show you examples of these puzzles momentarily.

パズルの実例も後ほどお見せします

正解数が多ければ多いほど

And the more puzzles you solve,

the greater the chances that you'll win some prizes.

賞品をもらえる可能性が大きくなります

ところでなぜお茶を飲むのか？

Now, why do you have to consume the tea?

Why? Because it makes a lot of sense:

理由は単純明快です

パズルを効果的に解くために

In order to solve these puzzles effectively, if you think about it,

精神が同時に２つの状態にならないといけません

your mind needs to be in two states simultaneously, right?

そうでしょう？神経がピンと張り詰めた状態

It needs to be alert,

for which caffeine is very good.

これにはカフェインが効果的ですし

同時に 心穏やかでなければいけません

Simultaneously, it needs to be calm --

not agitated, calm --

苛つかず 心が落ち着いた状態 これにはカモミールが最適です

for which chamomile is very good.

Now comes the between-subjects design,

さて被験者間で何を変えるのかという ABテストの

the AB design, the AB testing.

デザインを説明します

早速ですが 皆さんを適当に

So what I'm going to do is randomly assign you to one of two groups.

２つのグループに分けます

ここに架空の線があると想像してください

So imagine that there is an imaginary line out here,

so everyone here will be group A,

こちらの皆さんはグループAに

everyone out here will be group B.

こちらの皆さんはグループBにします

Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do is I'm going to show you these two teas,

グループAの皆さんには

２種類のお茶をお見せして

and I'll go ahead and ask you to choose your tea.

自分で好きな方を

選んでいただきます

So you can choose whichever tea you want.

You can decide, what is your mental state:

さぁ 選んでみてください 決めましたか?

OK, I choose the caffeinated tea,

そうだ 私はカフェイン入りのお茶を

I choose the chamomile tea.

私はカモミールを選ぼう

So you're going to be in charge, you're going to be in control,

自分で決める―

選択権を持ち 運転席に座っているのです

you're going to be in the driver's seat.

グループBの皆さん ここに２種類のお茶がありますが

You folks, I'm going to show you these two teas,

選んでいただくことはできません

but you don't have a choice.

I'm going to give you one of these two teas,

どちらかをお渡しします

and keep in mind, I'm going to pick one of these two teas

どちらか一方のお茶を

ランダムにお渡しします

at random for you.

And you know that.

覚えておいてください

So if you think about it, this is an extreme-case scenario,

もちろん これは非常に極端な例です

なぜなら 実社会では

because in the real world,

whenever you are taking passenger's seat,

あなたが助手席に座るときにはまず

very often the driver is going to be someone you trust,

たいてい運転席には信頼をおける人や

専門家がいる筈だからです これはかなり極端なシナリオです

an expert, etc.

So this is an extreme-case scenario.

Now, you're all going to consume the tea.

ここで皆さんにはお茶を飲んでいただきます

So imagine that you're taking the tea now,

お茶を楽しんでください

飲み終るまでもう少し待ちましょう

we'll wait for you to finish the tea.

お茶の成分が効果を発揮するまで あと５分ほど待ちましょう

We'll give another five minutes for the ingredient to have its effects.

さて これから30分かけて15問のパズルを解いてください

Now you're going to have 30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.

Here's an example of the puzzle you're going to solve.

ひとつサンプルをご紹介します

Anyone in the audience want to take a stab?

どなたか分かりますか？（文字の並び替えクイズ）

（観衆：PULPIT ）　素晴らしい！

Audience member: Pulpit! Baba Shiv: Whoa! OK.

凄いですね！

That's cool.

Yeah, so what we'd do if we had you who gave the answer

さて あなたのようにすぐ解る人がいたらどうするか

被験者のレベルに合わせて　 パズルの難易度を

as a participant,

we would have calibrated the difficulty level

of the puzzles to your expertise.

調整する必要がありました

簡単に解けては無意味ですから

Because we want these puzzles to be difficult.

このクイズは実に巧妙にできてて

These are tricky puzzles,

because your first instinct is to say "tulip."

本能的に TULIP に見えるので 慌てて頭を切り替えたり―

And then you have to unstick yourself.

Right?

しなくてはいけませんね　 つまり適切な難易度に設定されています

So these have been calibrated to your level of expertise,

後に説明しますが簡単に解けては意味がありません

because we want this to be difficult,

and I'll tell you why, momentarily.

それではサンプル問題をもうひとつ

Now, here's another example.

Anyone? This is much more difficult.

分かりますか？少し難しいかな？

Audience member: Embark. BS: Yeah. Wow! OK.

（観客：EMBARK ）　正解！

So, yeah, so this is, again, difficult.

こちらも難しかったでしょう

You'll say "kamber," then you'll go, "maker," and all that,

KAMBAR や MAKER など

ひっかけがたくさんあるのです

and then you can unstick yourself.

このような問題15問を 30分間で解いてもらいます

So you have 30 minutes now to solve these 15 puzzles.

この実験で

Now, the question we're asking here is, in terms of the outcome --

注目していることがあります

and it comes in the number of puzzles solved --

正解数が多いのは

運転席に乗る場合の

will you in the driver's seat end up solving more puzzles

方でしょうか？

つまり 飲むお茶を選択できたからこそ 成果が上がるのか

because you are in control,

you could decide which tea you would choose,

それともグループBの方が

or would you be better off,

正解数が多いのでしょうか？

in terms of the number of puzzles solved?

And, systemically, what we will show,

系統的な調査データをもとに

across a series of studies,

分析した結果

実は助手席にいる方が

is that you, the passengers,

お茶はランダムに割り当てられたものなのに

even though the tea was picked for you at random,

運転席にいる方よりも多く正解しました

will end up solving more puzzles than you, the drivers.

もうひとつ分かったことは

We also observe another thing,

and that is, you folks not only are solving fewer puzzles,

運転席にいる方は回答数が少ないうえ

you're also putting less juice into the task -- less effort,

集中力を欠いています

努力が足りず 粘り強さもない

you're less persistent, and so on.

なぜわかるのか？

How do we know that?

Well, we have two objective measures.

２つの客観的指標があるのです

One is, what is the time, on average, you're taking

ひとつは問題を解くのに

in attempting to solve these puzzles?

かけた解答時間の平均です

グループAの方が平均解答時間が短かったのです

You will spend less time compared to you.

Second, you have 30 minutes to solve these;

二つ目です 制限時間は30分ありますが

are you taking the entire 30 minutes

最後まで諦めずがんばるか？ あるいは30分より

or are you giving up before the 30 minutes elapse?

前に途中棄権するのか？

グループAの方が途中棄権する確率が高かったのです

You will be more likely to give up before the 30 minutes elapse,

compared to you.

集中力を欠いていることは結果にも現れます

So you're putting in less juice,

and therefore, the outcome: fewer puzzles solved.

正解数が少ないのです

That brings us now to: why does this happen?

ではなぜ こんな結果になるのか

And under what situations -- when -- would we see this pattern of results

どのような状況だと こういう結果に―

where the passenger is going to show better, more favorable outcomes,

つまり助手席側の方が 運転席側よりも

compared to the driver?

良い成果を出せるのか？

It all has to do with when you face what I call the INCA.

INCA と名付けたもの遭遇する場合に問題となるのです

It's an acronym that stands for the nature of the feedback you're getting

INCA は 意思決定の後のフィードバックの

性質を表す言葉の頭文字です

after you made the decision.

So if you think about it, in this particular puzzle task --

今回のパズル実験を思い出してみてください

変化の激しい株式投資や

it could happen in investing in the stock market,

病気の場合でも同じですが 結果は

very volatile out there,

it could be the medical situation --

直ちに分かりますよね (Immediate)

the feedback here is immediate.

You know the feedback, whether you're solving the puzzles or not.

パズルが解けたかどうか すぐ分かります

Right? Second, it is negative.

そして 結果は通常良くない (Negative)

Remember, the deck was stacked against you,

パズルの難易度は

in terms of the difficulty level of these puzzles.

意図的に高く設定されていました

And this can happen in the medical domain.

これは医療の現場でも同じです

例えば 治療のごく初期には

For example, very early on in the treatment,

things are negative, the feedback, before things become positive.

良い結果も見えず 状況や手ごたえは厳しいものです

Right? It can happen in the stock market.

これは株式市場でも同じです

荒れた株式市場では 直ちに否定的な結果が得られます

Volatile stock market, getting negative feedback, it is also immediate.

そして フィードバックは具体的です (Concrete)

And the feedback in all these cases is concrete, it's unambiguous;

曖昧ではありません 正解か 不正解か

you know if you've solved the puzzles or not.

Now, the added one,

さらにこの「即時性 (I)」

apart from this immediacy, negative, this concreteness --

「ネガティブ (N)」「具体的 (C)」に

now you have a sense of agency.

「主体感 (Agency)」が加わります

You were responsible for your decision.

自分の決断には責任が伴います

So what do you do?

するとどうなるのか？

You focus on the foregone option.

選ばなかった選択肢が気になるのです

You say, you know what?

だから もう一方のお茶を選んでればよかったのに―

I should have chosen the other tea.

（笑）

(Laughter)

That casts your decision in doubt,

心の迷いが　意思決定を乱し

意思決定の自信低下

reduces the confidence you have in the decision,

the confidence you have in the performance,

良い成果への自信低下

問題解決能力の低下につながります

the performance in terms of solving the puzzles.

課題解決に身が入らないので

And therefore less juice into the task,

fewer puzzles solved

正解数が少なくグループBより劣る結果となります

and less favorable outcomes compared to you folks.

これは医療分野でも十分に起こりえますね

And this can happen in the medical domain, if you think about it, right?

患者を運転席に座らせた場合

A patient in the driver's seat, for example.

活力に欠け 回復のプロセスを促す

Less juice, which means keeping herself or himself

less physically fit, physically active to hasten the recovery process,

運動や 健康維持の努力に 身が入らなくなってしまいます

which is what is often advocated.

大切だといわれているのにです これは良くないですね

You probably wouldn't do that.

And therefore, there are times when you're facing the INCA,

ですからINCAに遭遇したら

when the feedback is going to be immediate, negative, concrete

フィードバックが即時でネガティブであり

具体的で 自己責任を感じる時

and you have the sense of agency,

where you're far better off taking the passenger's seat

その場合は―誰かに運転席を任せ

and have someone else drive.

助手席に座ったほうがずっと良いのです

Now, I started off on a somber note.

今日は重苦しい

トーンで始まったので

I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.

最後は陽気なトーンで締め括りましょう

あれから５年が経過し―正確には５年以上ですが

It has now been five years, slightly more than five years,

and the good news, thank God, is that the cancer is still in remission.

非常に喜ばしいことに

家内の癌は未だ寛解期に留まっています

So it all ends well.

治療も順調に進んだわけです

ただし ひとつだけ言ってなかったことがあります

But one thing I didn't mention was that very early on into her treatment,

二人で相談した結果 家内の初期治療のときから

my wife and I decided that we would take the passenger's seat.

我々は助手席に座ることを決めました

そのことで得られた心の平安のおかげで

And that made so much of a difference

in terms of the peace of mind that came with that;

病気の回復に集中できたことが

この結果につながったと思います

we could focus on her recovery.

我々は医者に運転席を譲り

We let the doctors make all the decisions

and take the driver's seat.

すべての意思決定を任せました

ありがとうございました

Thank you.

(Applause)

（拍手）