Nicholas Christakis: The hidden influence of social networks

443,802 views ・ 2010-05-10

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Sandra Gojic
00:16
For me, this story begins about 15 years ago,
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Za mene, ova priča počinje pre nekih 15 godina,
00:19
when I was a hospice doctor at the University of Chicago.
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kada sam bio doktor za smrtno obolele na čikaškom univerzitetu.
00:22
And I was taking care of people who were dying and their families
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Brinuo sam o ljudima koji su umirali i o njihovim porodicama,
00:25
in the South Side of Chicago.
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u čikaškom kraju South Side.
00:27
And I was observing what happened to people and their families
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Posmatrao sam šta se dešava ljudima i njihovim porodicama
00:30
over the course of their terminal illness.
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tokom njihove smrtne bolesti.
00:33
And in my lab, I was studying the widower effect,
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U svojoj laboratoriji sam proučavao efekat udovca,
00:35
which is a very old idea in the social sciences,
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što je veoma stara ideja u društvenim naukama,
00:37
going back 150 years,
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koja potiče od pre 150 godina,
00:39
known as "dying of a broken heart."
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poznata i kao "umiranje od slomljenog srca".
00:41
So, when I die, my wife's risk of death can double,
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Dakle, kada ja umrem, rizik da moja žena umre se duplira,
00:44
for instance, in the first year.
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na primer, u prvoj godini.
00:46
And I had gone to take care of one particular patient,
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Brinuo sam o jednom pacijentu,
00:49
a woman who was dying of dementia.
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o ženi koja je umirala od starosti.
00:51
And in this case, unlike this couple,
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U ovom slučaju, za razliku od ovog para,
00:53
she was being cared for
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o njoj je brinula
00:55
by her daughter.
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njena ćerka.
00:57
And the daughter was exhausted from caring for her mother.
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Ona je bila iscrpljena od vođenja računa o njoj.
01:00
And the daughter's husband,
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A muž te ćerke,
01:02
he also was sick
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bio je takođe bolestan
01:05
from his wife's exhaustion.
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od iscrpljenosti svoje žene.
01:07
And I was driving home one day,
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Jednog dana sam se vozio kući
01:09
and I get a phone call from the husband's friend,
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i pozvao me je prijatelj tog muža,
01:12
calling me because he was depressed
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zvao me je jer je bio deprimiran
01:14
about what was happening to his friend.
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zbog toga što se dešava njegovom prijatelju.
01:16
So here I get this call from this random guy
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Znači zove me neki nasumični lik
01:18
that's having an experience
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koji prolazi kroz iskustvo
01:20
that's being influenced by people
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na koje utiču ljudi
01:22
at some social distance.
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koji su na nekoj društvenoj udaljenosti.
01:24
And so I suddenly realized two very simple things:
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Odjednom sam shvatio dve veoma jednostavne stvari.
01:27
First, the widowhood effect
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Prvo, efekat udovištva
01:29
was not restricted to husbands and wives.
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nije ograničen samo na muževe i žene.
01:32
And second, it was not restricted to pairs of people.
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I drugo, nije ograničen samo na parove ljudi.
01:35
And I started to see the world
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Počeo sam da posmatram svet
01:37
in a whole new way,
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na potpuno drugačiji način,
01:39
like pairs of people connected to each other.
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kao parove ljudi koji su međusobno povezani.
01:42
And then I realized that these individuals
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Onda sam shvatio da ove individue
01:44
would be connected into foursomes with other pairs of people nearby.
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mogu biti povezane u četvorke sa drugim parovima u okolini.
01:47
And then, in fact, these people
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I da su, ustvari, ovi ljudi
01:49
were embedded in other sorts of relationships:
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povezani u druge vrste veza,
01:51
marriage and spousal
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bračne i supružničke,
01:53
and friendship and other sorts of ties.
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prijateljske i svakakve druge.
01:55
And that, in fact, these connections were vast
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I te veze su ogromne,
01:58
and that we were all embedded in this
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i svi smo mi utisnuti u tu
02:00
broad set of connections with each other.
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široku mrežu veza jedni sa drugima.
02:03
So I started to see the world in a completely new way
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Tako sam počeo da posmatram svet na potpuno nov način,
02:06
and I became obsessed with this.
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postao sam opsednut time.
02:08
I became obsessed with how it might be
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Postao sam opsednut time kako je moguće
02:10
that we're embedded in these social networks,
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da smo uvezani u te društvene mreže
02:12
and how they affect our lives.
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i kako one utiču na naše živote.
02:14
So, social networks are these intricate things of beauty,
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Društvene mreže su tako isprepletane i divne
02:17
and they're so elaborate and so complex
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i tako su složene i detaljne
02:19
and so ubiquitous, in fact,
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i sveprisutne ustvari,
02:21
that one has to ask what purpose they serve.
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da moramo da se zapitamo koja je njihova svrha.
02:24
Why are we embedded in social networks?
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Zašto smo utisnuti u društvene mreže?
02:26
I mean, how do they form? How do they operate?
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Mislim, kako se one formiraju? Kako rade?
02:28
And how do they effect us?
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I kako utiču na nas?
02:30
So my first topic with respect to this,
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I tako je moja prva tema u vezi sa ovim
02:33
was not death, but obesity.
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bila gojaznost, a ne smrt.
02:36
It had become trendy
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Odjednom je postalo moderno
02:38
to speak about the "obesity epidemic."
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da se priča o epidemiji gojaznosti.
02:40
And, along with my collaborator, James Fowler,
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I moj saradnik Džejms Fauler i ja
02:43
we began to wonder whether obesity really was epidemic
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smo počeli da razmišljamo da li je gojaznost stvarno epidemijska
02:46
and could it spread from person to person
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i da li može da se prenosi sa osobe na osobu
02:48
like the four people I discussed earlier.
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kao u slučaju onih četvoro ljudi o kojima sam govorio.
02:51
So this is a slide of some of our initial results.
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Ovo je slajd nekih od naših prvih rezultata.
02:54
It's 2,200 people in the year 2000.
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To je 2200 ljudi 2000. godine.
02:57
Every dot is a person. We make the dot size
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Svaka tačka je jedna osoba. Veličina tačke
02:59
proportional to people's body size;
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je proporcionalna veličini nečijeg tela.
03:01
so bigger dots are bigger people.
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Znači, veće tačke su veći ljudi.
03:04
In addition, if your body size,
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Dalje, ako vaša veličina,
03:06
if your BMI, your body mass index, is above 30 --
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tj ako je vaš ITM, indeks telesne mase preko 30,
03:08
if you're clinically obese --
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ako ste klinički gojazni,
03:10
we also colored the dots yellow.
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tačka je obojena žuto.
03:12
So, if you look at this image, right away you might be able to see
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Ako pogledate ovu sliku sada, možete videti
03:14
that there are clusters of obese and
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da postoje grupe gojaznih
03:16
non-obese people in the image.
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i negojaznih ljudi na slici.
03:18
But the visual complexity is still very high.
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Ali vizuelna složenost je i dalje visoka.
03:21
It's not obvious exactly what's going on.
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Nije baš očigledno šta se dešava.
03:24
In addition, some questions are immediately raised:
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Povrh toga, odmah se postavljaju neka pitanja.
03:26
How much clustering is there?
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Koliko grupisanja ima?
03:28
Is there more clustering than would be due to chance alone?
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Da li ima više grupisanja nego što bi bilo pukim slučajem?
03:31
How big are the clusters? How far do they reach?
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Koliko su velike grupe? Koliko daleko sežu?
03:33
And, most importantly,
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I najvažnije,
03:35
what causes the clusters?
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šta uzrokuje ta grupisanja?
03:37
So we did some mathematics to study the size of these clusters.
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Onda smo primenili matematiku kako bismo izračunali veličinu tih grupa.
03:40
This here shows, on the Y-axis,
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Ovde se vidi, na Y osi,
03:42
the increase in the probability that a person is obese
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povećanje verovatnoće da je osoba gojazna,
03:45
given that a social contact of theirs is obese
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ukoliko je neko iz njenog okruženja gojazan.
03:47
and, on the X-axis, the degrees of separation between the two people.
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A na X osi je stepen udaljenosti između dve osobe.
03:50
On the far left, you see the purple line.
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Krajnje levo vidite ljubičastu liniju.
03:52
It says that, if your friends are obese,
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Ona govori da, ako su vam prijatelji gojazni,
03:54
your risk of obesity is 45 percent higher.
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vaš rizik od gojaznosti je 45% viši.
03:57
And the next bar over, the [red] line,
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Sledeći stubac, narandžasta linija,
03:59
says if your friend's friends are obese,
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govori da, ako su prijatelji vaših prijatelja gojazni,
04:01
your risk of obesity is 25 percent higher.
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vaš rizik je 25% viši.
04:03
And then the next line over says
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Sledeća linija kaže da,
04:05
if your friend's friend's friend, someone you probably don't even know, is obese,
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ako su prijatelji prijatelja vaših prijatelja, neko koga verovatno i ne poznajete, gojazni,
04:08
your risk of obesity is 10 percent higher.
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vaš rizik je 10% veći.
04:11
And it's only when you get to your friend's friend's friend's friends
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I tek kada dođete do prijatelja od prijatelja od prijatelja vaših prijatelja
04:14
that there's no longer a relationship
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više ne postoji veza
04:16
between that person's body size and your own body size.
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između građe te osobe i vaše građe.
04:20
Well, what might be causing this clustering?
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Dakle, šta uzrokuje ova grupisanja?
04:23
There are at least three possibilities:
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Ima najmanje tri mogućnosti.
04:25
One possibility is that, as I gain weight,
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Jedna mogućnost je ta da, ako se ja ugojim,
04:27
it causes you to gain weight.
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to čini da se i vi ugojite,
04:29
A kind of induction, a kind of spread from person to person.
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kao neka indukcija, prenošenje sa osobe na osobu.
04:32
Another possibility, very obvious, is homophily,
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Sledeća, veoma očigledna mogućnost, je homofilija,
04:34
or, birds of a feather flock together;
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iliti slično se sličnom raduje.
04:36
here, I form my tie to you
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U ovom slučaju, ja se vezujem za tebe
04:38
because you and I share a similar body size.
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jer delimo sličnu telesnu građu.
04:41
And the last possibility is what is known as confounding,
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I poslednja mogućnost je poznata kao zbunjivanje,
04:43
because it confounds our ability to figure out what's going on.
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jer nas zbunjuje u pokušaju da shvatimo šta se dešava.
04:46
And here, the idea is not that my weight gain
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Ovde nije ideja da moje dobijanje na težini
04:48
is causing your weight gain,
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uzrokuje vaše,
04:50
nor that I preferentially form a tie with you
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niti da se ja vezujem za vas
04:52
because you and I share the same body size,
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jer imamo sličnu građu,
04:54
but rather that we share a common exposure
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nego je ideja da delimo sličnu izloženost
04:56
to something, like a health club
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nečemu, kao npr zdravstvenom klubu,
04:59
that makes us both lose weight at the same time.
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gde oboje u isto vreme gubimo na težini.
05:02
When we studied these data, we found evidence for all of these things,
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I kada smo proučavali ove podatke pronašli smo dokaze za sve stvari
05:05
including for induction.
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uključujući indukciju.
05:07
And we found that if your friend becomes obese,
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Pronašli smo da, ako vaš prijatelj postane gojazan,
05:09
it increases your risk of obesity by about 57 percent
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to kod vas povećava rizik od gojaznosti za 57%
05:12
in the same given time period.
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u istom vremenskom periodu.
05:14
There can be many mechanisms for this effect:
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Postoji mnogo mehanizama u osnovi ovoga.
05:17
One possibility is that your friends say to you something like --
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Jedna od mogućnosti je da vam prijatelji kažu nešto kao -
05:19
you know, they adopt a behavior that spreads to you --
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znate, usvoje ponašanje koje se prenese na vas,
05:22
like, they say, "Let's go have muffins and beer,"
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naprimer kažu, "Hajdemo na kolače i pivo",
05:25
which is a terrible combination. (Laughter)
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što je užasna kombinacija,
05:28
But you adopt that combination,
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ali vi usvojite tu kombinaciju
05:30
and then you start gaining weight like them.
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i onda počnete da se gojite kao i oni.
05:33
Another more subtle possibility
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Jedna suptilnija mogućnost je da
05:35
is that they start gaining weight, and it changes your ideas
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oni počnu da se goje i to menja vaše ideje
05:38
of what an acceptable body size is.
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o tome šta je prihvatljiva težina.
05:40
Here, what's spreading from person to person
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Ovde je ono što se prenosti od osobe do osobe
05:42
is not a behavior, but rather a norm:
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ustvari norma, a ne ponašanje.
05:44
An idea is spreading.
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Ideja se širi.
05:46
Now, headline writers
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Pisci naslova
05:48
had a field day with our studies.
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su imali priliku da vide naše studije.
05:50
I think the headline in The New York Times was,
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Mislim da je naslov u New York Times-u bio
05:52
"Are you packing it on?
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"Da li se gojite?
05:54
Blame your fat friends." (Laughter)
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Okrivite svoje debele prijatelje."
05:57
What was interesting to us is that the European headline writers
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Bilo nam je interesantno da su evropski pisci naslova
05:59
had a different take: They said,
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imali potpuno drugačije shvatanje, rekli su
06:01
"Are your friends gaining weight? Perhaps you are to blame."
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"Da li se vaši prijatelji goje? Možda ste vi krivi."
06:04
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
06:09
And we thought this was a very interesting comment on America,
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Mislili smo da je ovo veoma interesantan komentar Amerike,
06:12
and a kind of self-serving,
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koji nam ide na ruku,
06:14
"not my responsibility" kind of phenomenon.
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kao, "nije-moja-odgovornost" fenomen.
06:16
Now, I want to be very clear: We do not think our work
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Sada želim da budem veoma jasan, mi ne mislimo da naš rad
06:18
should or could justify prejudice
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može ili da bi trebalo da opravda predrasude
06:20
against people of one or another body size at all.
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o ljudima ove ili one težine.
06:24
Our next questions was:
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Naše sledeće pitanje bilo je:
06:26
Could we actually visualize this spread?
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Da li možemo da vizualizujemo ovo širenje?
06:29
Was weight gain in one person actually spreading
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Da li se dobijanje na težini kod jedne osobe zaista prenosi
06:31
to weight gain in another person?
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kao dobijanje na težini kod druge osobe?
06:33
And this was complicated because
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Ovo je bilo komplikovano jer
06:35
we needed to take into account the fact that the network structure,
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smo morali da uračunamo da se struktura mreže,
06:38
the architecture of the ties, was changing across time.
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arhitektura povezanosti, menja tokom vremena.
06:41
In addition, because obesity is not a unicentric epidemic,
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Povrh toga, pošto gojaznost nije unicentrična epidemija,
06:44
there's not a Patient Zero of the obesity epidemic --
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ne postoji "nulti pacijent" epidemije gojaznosti -
06:47
if we find that guy, there was a spread of obesity out from him --
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da nađemo tog tipa od kog je počela da se širi gojaznost.
06:50
it's a multicentric epidemic.
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To je multicentrična epidemija.
06:52
Lots of people are doing things at the same time.
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Mnogo ljudi radi stvari u isto vreme.
06:54
And I'm about to show you a 30 second video animation
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Pokazaću vam video animaciju od 30 sekundi
06:57
that took me and James five years of our lives to do.
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za koju je Džejmsu i meni bilo potrebno 5 godina da je napravimo.
07:00
So, again, every dot is a person.
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Opet, svaka tačka je osoba.
07:02
Every tie between them is a relationship.
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Svaka veza među njima predstavlja odnos.
07:04
We're going to put this into motion now,
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Sada ćemo to pokrenuti,
07:06
taking daily cuts through the network for about 30 years.
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krećući se dan po dan kroz mrežu tokom 30 godina.
07:09
The dot sizes are going to grow,
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Veličine tačaka sada rastu.
07:11
you're going to see a sea of yellow take over.
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Videćete kako more žute preovladava.
07:14
You're going to see people be born and die --
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Videćete kako se ljudi rađaju i umiru;
07:16
dots will appear and disappear --
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tačke će se pojaviti i nestajati.
07:18
ties will form and break, marriages and divorces,
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Veze će se stvarati i prekidati. Brakovi i razvodi,
07:21
friendings and defriendings.
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prijateljstva i raskidi prijateljstava,
07:23
A lot of complexity, a lot is happening
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mnogo složenosti, mnogo se dešava
07:25
just in this 30-year period
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samo u ovom periodu od 30 godina,
07:27
that includes the obesity epidemic.
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što uključuje i epidemiju gojaznosti.
07:29
And, by the end, you're going to see clusters
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I pri kraju ćete videti grupe
07:31
of obese and non-obese individuals
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gojaznih i negojaznih pojedinaca
07:33
within the network.
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u okviru mreže.
07:35
Now, when looked at this,
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Sad, kada sam pogledao ovo,
07:38
it changed the way I see things,
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to je promenilo način na koji gledam na stvari
07:41
because this thing, this network
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jer ova stvar, ova mreža,
07:43
that's changing across time,
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koja se menja tokom vremena,
07:45
it has a memory, it moves,
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ima memoriju, kreće se,
07:48
things flow within it,
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stvari teku u njoj,
07:50
it has a kind of consistency --
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ima neku vrstu doslednosti;
07:52
people can die, but it doesn't die;
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ljudi mogu umreti, ali ona ne umire;
07:54
it still persists --
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ona opstaje.
07:56
and it has a kind of resilience
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Poseduje neku otpornost
07:58
that allows it to persist across time.
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koja joj dozvoljava da opstane u vremenu.
08:00
And so, I came to see these kinds of social networks
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I tako sam počeo da posmatram ove znake društvene mreže
08:03
as living things,
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kao žive stvari,
08:05
as living things that we could put under a kind of microscope
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žive stvari koje možemo staviti ispod nekog mikroskopa
08:08
to study and analyze and understand.
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i proučavati i analizirati i razumeti.
08:11
And we used a variety of techniques to do this.
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U tu svrhu koristimo različite tehnike.
08:13
And we started exploring all kinds of other phenomena.
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Počeli smo da istražujemo svakakve fenomene.
08:16
We looked at smoking and drinking behavior,
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Posmatrali smo pušenje i pijenje,
08:18
and voting behavior,
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glasanje,
08:20
and divorce -- which can spread --
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razvod, koji se može širiti
08:22
and altruism.
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i altruizam.
08:24
And, eventually, we became interested in emotions.
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I na kraju smo se zainteresovali za emocije.
08:28
Now, when we have emotions,
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Sad, kada imamo osećanja,
08:30
we show them.
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mi ih pokazujemo.
08:32
Why do we show our emotions?
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Zašto pokazujemo svoja osećanja?
08:34
I mean, there would be an advantage to experiencing
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Mislim, postojala bi prednost u doživljavanju
08:36
our emotions inside, you know, anger or happiness.
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naših emocija iznutra, znate, besa ili sreće,
08:39
But we don't just experience them, we show them.
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ali mi ne samo da ih doživljavamo, mi ih pokazujemo.
08:41
And not only do we show them, but others can read them.
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I ne samo da ih pokazujemo, nego i drugi mogu da ih pročitaju.
08:44
And, not only can they read them, but they copy them.
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I ne samo da mogu da ih pročitaju, oni ih kopiraju.
08:46
There's emotional contagion
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U ljudskim populacijama
08:48
that takes place in human populations.
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dolazi do emotivne zaraze.
08:51
And so this function of emotions
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Ova funkcija emocija
08:53
suggests that, in addition to any other purpose they serve,
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nam sugeriše da, pored drugih funkcija koju imaju,
08:55
they're a kind of primitive form of communication.
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one su neka vrsta primitivnog načina komuniciranja.
08:58
And that, in fact, if we really want to understand human emotions,
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I ustvari, ako zaista želimo da razumemo ljudska osećanja,
09:01
we need to think about them in this way.
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trebalo bi da ih posmatramo na ovaj način.
09:03
Now, we're accustomed to thinking about emotions in this way,
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Sad, mi smo navikli da o emocijama razmišljamo na ovaj način
09:06
in simple, sort of, brief periods of time.
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u jednostavnim, kratkim vremenskim periodima.
09:09
So, for example,
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Na primer,
09:11
I was giving this talk recently in New York City,
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držao sam jedno predavanje u Njujorku nedavno,
09:13
and I said, "You know when you're on the subway
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i rekao sam, "Znate ono, kada ste u metrou
09:15
and the other person across the subway car
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i osoba na drugom kraju vagona
09:17
smiles at you,
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vam se nasmeši
09:19
and you just instinctively smile back?"
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a vi joj instinktivno uzvratite osmeh."
09:21
And they looked at me and said, "We don't do that in New York City." (Laughter)
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Oni su me pogledali i rekli, "Mi u Njujorku to ne radimo."
09:24
And I said, "Everywhere else in the world,
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A ja sam rekao, "Na svim ostalim mestima u svetu
09:26
that's normal human behavior."
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to je normalno ponašanje."
09:28
And so there's a very instinctive way
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Način na koji kratko prenosimo emocije
09:30
in which we briefly transmit emotions to each other.
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među sobom veoma je instinktivan.
09:33
And, in fact, emotional contagion can be broader still.
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Zapravo, emotivna zaraza može biti još šira,
09:36
Like we could have punctuated expressions of anger,
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možemo imati naglašene izlive besa,
09:39
as in riots.
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kao u pobunama.
09:41
The question that we wanted to ask was:
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Pitanje koje smo hteli da postavimo bilo je:
09:43
Could emotion spread,
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Da li emocije mogu da se šire kroz vreme
09:45
in a more sustained way than riots, across time
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na stabilniji način nego što je to u pobunama,
09:48
and involve large numbers of people,
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i da uključuju veliki broj ljudi,
09:50
not just this pair of individuals smiling at each other in the subway car?
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ne samo parove ljudi koji se osmehuju jedni drugima u metrou?
09:53
Maybe there's a kind of below the surface, quiet riot
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Možda postoji neka pobuna ispod površine,
09:56
that animates us all the time.
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koja nas pokreće svo vreme.
09:58
Maybe there are emotional stampedes
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Možda postoje stampeda emocija
10:00
that ripple through social networks.
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koja talasaju naše društvene mreže.
10:02
Maybe, in fact, emotions have a collective existence,
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Možda ustvari, emocije imaju kolektivnu egzistenciju,
10:05
not just an individual existence.
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ne samo individualnu.
10:07
And this is one of the first images we made to study this phenomenon.
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Ovo je jedna od prvih slika koju smo napravili za proučavanje ovog fenomena.
10:10
Again, a social network,
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Opet, to je socijalna mreža,
10:12
but now we color the people yellow if they're happy
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ali sada smo u žuto obojili ljude koji su srećni
10:15
and blue if they're sad and green in between.
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a u plavo ako su tužni, a zeleno ako su između.
10:18
And if you look at this image, you can right away see
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Ako pogledate ovu sliku odmah primećujete
10:20
clusters of happy and unhappy people,
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grupe srećnih i nesrećnih ljudi
10:22
again, spreading to three degrees of separation.
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na tri stepena odvojenosti.
10:24
And you might form the intuition
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Možete intuitivno zaključiti
10:26
that the unhappy people
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da nesrećni ljudi
10:28
occupy a different structural location within the network.
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zauzimaju drugačiju strukturnu lokaciju u okviru mreže.
10:31
There's a middle and an edge to this network,
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Postoji sredina i ivica ove mreže,
10:33
and the unhappy people seem to be
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a nesrećni se izgleda
10:35
located at the edges.
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nalaze na ivicama.
10:37
So to invoke another metaphor,
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Da uključimo još jednu metaforu,
10:39
if you imagine social networks as a kind of
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ako zamislite da je društvena mreža neka vrsta
10:41
vast fabric of humanity --
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ogromne tkanine čovečanstva -
10:43
I'm connected to you and you to her, on out endlessly into the distance --
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ja sam povezan sa vama, vi sa njom, i tako u nedogled i u daljinu -
10:46
this fabric is actually like
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ova tkanina je ustvari kao
10:48
an old-fashioned American quilt,
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staromodni američki jorgan,
10:50
and it has patches on it: happy and unhappy patches.
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koji ima zakrpe po sebi, srećne i nesrećne zakrpe.
10:53
And whether you become happy or not
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Da li ćete biti srećni ili ne,
10:55
depends in part on whether you occupy a happy patch.
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zavisi donekle i od toga da li se nalazite na srećnoj zakrpi.
10:58
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
11:00
So, this work with emotions,
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Ovaj rad sa emocijama,
11:03
which are so fundamental,
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koje su toliko bitne,
11:05
then got us to thinking about: Maybe
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potakao nas je na razmišljanje da
11:07
the fundamental causes of human social networks
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su možda osnovni uzroci ljudskih društvenih mreža
11:09
are somehow encoded in our genes.
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na neki način kodirani u našim genima.
11:11
Because human social networks, whenever they are mapped,
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Jer ljudske društvene mreže, kad god da se prave,
11:14
always kind of look like this:
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uvek izgledaju ovako,
11:16
the picture of the network.
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slika mreže,
11:18
But they never look like this.
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a nikada ne izgledaju ovako.
11:20
Why do they not look like this?
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Zašto ne izgledaju ovako?
11:22
Why don't we form human social networks
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Zašto ne formiramo veze
11:24
that look like a regular lattice?
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koje izgledaju kao pravilne rešetke?
11:26
Well, the striking patterns of human social networks,
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Pa, iznenađujući oblici ljudskih društvenih mreža,
11:29
their ubiquity and their apparent purpose
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njihova sveprisutnost i očigledna svrha,
11:32
beg questions about whether we evolved to have
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pozivaju da se zapitamo da li smo evoluirali da uopšte
11:34
human social networks in the first place,
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imamo društvene mreže
11:36
and whether we evolved to form networks
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i da li smo evoluirali da formiramo mreže
11:38
with a particular structure.
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koje imaju naročitu strukturu.
11:40
And notice first of all -- so, to understand this, though,
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Pre svega primetite... Zapravo, da bismo ovo razumeli,
11:42
we need to dissect network structure a little bit first --
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moramo za početak malo da iseckamo strukturu mreže.
11:45
and notice that every person in this network
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Primetite da svaka osoba u ovoj mreži
11:47
has exactly the same structural location as every other person.
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ima potpuno jednaku strukturnu poziciju kao svaka druga osoba.
11:50
But that's not the case with real networks.
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Ali to nije slučaj sa pravim mrežama.
11:53
So, for example, here is a real network of college students
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Na primer, ovde je prava mreža studenata
11:55
at an elite northeastern university.
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jednog elitnog severoistočnog univerziteta.
11:58
And now I'm highlighting a few dots.
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Obeležavam nekoliko tačaka.
12:00
If you look here at the dots,
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Ako pogledate tačke,
12:02
compare node B in the upper left
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uporedite čvor B, gore levo,
12:04
to node D in the far right;
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sa čvorom D krajnje desno.
12:06
B has four friends coming out from him
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B ima četvoro prijatelja koji polaze od njega.
12:08
and D has six friends coming out from him.
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A D ima šestoro prijatelja koji polaze od njega.
12:11
And so, those two individuals have different numbers of friends.
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Znači, te dve osobe imaju različit broj prijatelja -
12:14
That's very obvious, we all know that.
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to je vrlo očigledno, svi to znamo.
12:16
But certain other aspects
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Ali neki drugi aspekti
12:18
of social network structure are not so obvious.
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strukture društvene mreže nisu tako očigledni.
12:20
Compare node B in the upper left to node A in the lower left.
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Uporedite čvor B gore levo, sa čvorom A dole levo.
12:23
Now, those people both have four friends,
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Oboje imaju četvoro prijatelja,
12:26
but A's friends all know each other,
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ali prijatelji od A se svi međusobno poznaju,
12:28
and B's friends do not.
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a prijatelji od B ne.
12:30
So the friend of a friend of A's
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Znači prijatelj od prijatelja od A
12:32
is, back again, a friend of A's,
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je opet prijatelj od A,
12:34
whereas the friend of a friend of B's is not a friend of B's,
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dok prijatelj od prijatelja od B nije prijatelj od B,
12:36
but is farther away in the network.
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on je dalje u mreži.
12:38
This is known as transitivity in networks.
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Ovo je poznato kao prelaznost u mrežama.
12:41
And, finally, compare nodes C and D:
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I na kraju, uporedite čvorove C i D.
12:43
C and D both have six friends.
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C i D oboje imaju po 6 prijatelja.
12:46
If you talk to them, and you said, "What is your social life like?"
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Ako biste pričali s njima i pitali, "Kakav je vaš društveni život?"
12:49
they would say, "I've got six friends.
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oni bi rekli, "Imam šest prijatelja,
12:51
That's my social experience."
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to je moje društveno iskustvo."
12:53
But now we, with a bird's eye view looking at this network,
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Ali mi, pogledom na ovu mrežu iz ptičije perspektive,
12:56
can see that they occupy very different social worlds.
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možemo da vidimo da oni zauzimaju različite društvene svetove,
12:59
And I can cultivate that intuition in you by just asking you:
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i mogu da pokrenem tu intuiciju u vama pitajući vas samo:
13:01
Who would you rather be
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ko biste radije bili,
13:03
if a deadly germ was spreading through the network?
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da se smrtni virus širi mrežom?
13:05
Would you rather be C or D?
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Da li biste radije bili C ili D?
13:08
You'd rather be D, on the edge of the network.
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Bili biste D, na ivici mreže.
13:10
And now who would you rather be
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A ko biste radije bili,
13:12
if a juicy piece of gossip -- not about you --
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da se sočni trač, koji nije o vama,
13:15
was spreading through the network? (Laughter)
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širi mrežom?
13:17
Now, you would rather be C.
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Sada biste radije bili C.
13:19
So different structural locations
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Znači različita mesta u strukturi
13:21
have different implications for your life.
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imaju drugačije implikacije u našem životu.
13:23
And, in fact, when we did some experiments looking at this,
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Ustvari, kada smo radili neke eksperimente u vezi sa ovim,
13:26
what we found is that 46 percent of the variation
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pronašli smo da se 46% varijacije
13:29
in how many friends you have
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u broju prijatelja koje imate
13:31
is explained by your genes.
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objašnjava vašim genima.
13:33
And this is not surprising. We know that some people are born shy
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Ovo nije iznenađenje. Znamo da se neki ljudi rađaju stidljivi
13:36
and some are born gregarious. That's obvious.
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a neki društveni. To je očigledno.
13:39
But we also found some non-obvious things.
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Ali takođe smo pronašli i neke ne-očigledne stvari.
13:41
For instance, 47 percent in the variation
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Na primer, 47% varijacije
13:44
in whether your friends know each other
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u činjenici da li se vaši prijatelji međusobno poznaju
13:46
is attributable to your genes.
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može se pripisati vašim genima.
13:48
Whether your friends know each other
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Da li se vaši prijatelji međusobno poznaju
13:50
has not just to do with their genes, but with yours.
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nema veze samo sa njihovim genima, nego sa vašim.
13:53
And we think the reason for this is that some people
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Mislimo da je razlog tome to što neki ljudi
13:55
like to introduce their friends to each other -- you know who you are --
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vole da predstavljaju svoje prijatelje jedne drugima, da znate ko ste,
13:58
and others of you keep them apart and don't introduce your friends to each other.
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a drugi ih drže odvojene i ne upoznaju jedne sa drugima.
14:01
And so some people knit together the networks around them,
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Tako neki ljudi prave mreže oko sebe,
14:04
creating a kind of dense web of ties
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stvaraju guste mreže povezanosti
14:06
in which they're comfortably embedded.
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u kojima su udobno ugnježdeni.
14:08
And finally, we even found that
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I na kraju, pronašli smo da
14:10
30 percent of the variation
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se 30% variranja
14:12
in whether or not people are in the middle or on the edge of the network
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u činjenici da li se ljudi nalaze u sredini ili na ivici mreže
14:15
can also be attributed to their genes.
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može takođe pripisati genima.
14:17
So whether you find yourself in the middle or on the edge
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Dakle, da li se nalazite u sredini ili na ivici,
14:19
is also partially heritable.
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takođe je delom nasledno.
14:22
Now, what is the point of this?
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Sada, koja je poenta ovoga?
14:25
How does this help us understand?
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Kako nam to pomaže u razumevanju?
14:27
How does this help us
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Kako nam to pomaže da
14:29
figure out some of the problems that are affecting us these days?
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razumemo neke od problema koji nas pogađaju ovih dana?
14:33
Well, the argument I'd like to make is that networks have value.
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Ja želim da naglasim tvrdnju da mreže imaju svoju vrednost.
14:36
They are a kind of social capital.
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One su na neki način društveni kapital.
14:39
New properties emerge
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Nova svojstva se javljaju
14:41
because of our embeddedness in social networks,
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usled toga što smo uklopljeni u društvene mreže,
14:43
and these properties inhere
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ta svojstva su tu,
14:46
in the structure of the networks,
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u strukturi mreža,
14:48
not just in the individuals within them.
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ne samo u pojedincima u okviru mreža.
14:50
So think about these two common objects.
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Razmislite o ova dva obična predmeta.
14:52
They're both made of carbon,
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Oba su sačinjena od ugljenika,
14:54
and yet one of them has carbon atoms in it
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ali kod jednog su atomi ugljenika
14:57
that are arranged in one particular way -- on the left --
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poređani na jedan određeni način, levo,
15:00
and you get graphite, which is soft and dark.
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i dobijate grafit koji je mekan i taman.
15:03
But if you take the same carbon atoms
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Ali ako uzmete iste atome ugljenika
15:05
and interconnect them a different way,
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i povežete ih na drugačiji način,
15:07
you get diamond, which is clear and hard.
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dobijate dijamant, koji je sjajan i tvrd.
15:10
And those properties of softness and hardness and darkness and clearness
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Ta svojstva mekoće i tvrdoće, zatamnjenosti i sjaja
15:13
do not reside in the carbon atoms;
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nisu svojstva ugljenikovih atoma.
15:15
they reside in the interconnections between the carbon atoms,
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Ona se nalaze u međusobnim povezanostima atoma ugljenika,
15:18
or at least arise because of the
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ili se javljaju zbog
15:20
interconnections between the carbon atoms.
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međusobne povezanosti ugljenikovih atoma.
15:22
So, similarly, the pattern of connections among people
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Na sličan način, šema veza među ljudima
15:25
confers upon the groups of people
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gradi se od grupa ljudi
15:28
different properties.
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različitih svojstava.
15:30
It is the ties between people
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Veze među ljudima su te
15:32
that makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts.
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koje čine celinu većom od sume svojih delova.
15:35
And so it is not just what's happening to these people --
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Znači, nije samo to što se dešava tim ljudima,
15:38
whether they're losing weight or gaining weight, or becoming rich or becoming poor,
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bilo da gube ili dobijaju na težini, bogate se ili postaju siromašni,
15:41
or becoming happy or not becoming happy -- that affects us;
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ili srećni ili nesrećni, ono što utiče na nas.
15:44
it's also the actual architecture
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Utiče i konkretna arhitektura
15:46
of the ties around us.
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veza oko nas.
15:48
Our experience of the world
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Naš doživljaj sveta
15:50
depends on the actual structure
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zavisi od strukture
15:52
of the networks in which we're residing
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mreža u kojima se nalazimo
15:54
and on all the kinds of things that ripple and flow
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i od vrste stvari koje uzburkavaju i teku
15:57
through the network.
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kroz mrežu.
16:00
Now, the reason, I think, that this is the case
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Mislim da je razlog tome
16:03
is that human beings assemble themselves
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to što se ljudska bića okupljaju
16:05
and form a kind of superorganism.
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i formiraju neku vrstu superorganizma.
16:09
Now, a superorganism is a collection of individuals
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Superorganizam je nekakva kolekcija individua
16:12
which show or evince behaviors or phenomena
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koje pokazuju ili ispoljavaju ponašanja ili fenomene
16:15
that are not reducible to the study of individuals
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koji ne mogu da se svedu na proučavanje pojedinaca
16:18
and that must be understood by reference to,
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i moraju se razumeti u odnosu
16:20
and by studying, the collective.
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i u proučavanju kolektivnog,
16:22
Like, for example, a hive of bees
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kao na primer roj pčela
16:25
that's finding a new nesting site,
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koji pronalazi novo mesto za nastanjivanje,
16:28
or a flock of birds that's evading a predator,
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ili jato ptica koje izbegava grabljivca
16:30
or a flock of birds that's able to pool its wisdom
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ili jato ptica koje može da isredsredi svoju mudrost
16:33
and navigate and find a tiny speck
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u navigaciji i pronađe sitnu mrlju koja je
16:35
of an island in the middle of the Pacific,
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ustvari ostrvo usred Pacifika,
16:37
or a pack of wolves that's able
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ili čopor vukova koji je sposoban
16:39
to bring down larger prey.
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da savlada veći plen.
16:42
Superorganisms have properties
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Superorganizmi imaju svojstva
16:44
that cannot be understood just by studying the individuals.
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koja se ne mogu razumeti samo proučavanjem pojedinaca.
16:47
I think understanding social networks
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Mislim da razumevanje socijalnih mreža
16:49
and how they form and operate
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i načina na koji nastaju i funkcionišu,
16:51
can help us understand not just health and emotions
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može da nam pomogne da razumemo, ne samo zdravlje i emocije,
16:54
but all kinds of other phenomena --
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nego svakakve fenomene,
16:56
like crime, and warfare,
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kao što su zločin i rat
16:58
and economic phenomena like bank runs
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i ekonomske fenomene kao što su banke
17:00
and market crashes
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i krahovi tržišta
17:02
and the adoption of innovation
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i usvajanje inovacija
17:04
and the spread of product adoption.
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i širenje prihvatanja nekog proizvoda.
17:06
Now, look at this.
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Sada, vidite.
17:09
I think we form social networks
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Mislim da formiramo društvene mreže
17:11
because the benefits of a connected life
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jer su dobiti povezanog života
17:13
outweigh the costs.
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veće od uloga.
17:16
If I was always violent towards you
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Da sam ja uvek nasilan prema vama,
17:18
or gave you misinformation
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ili vam dajem pogrešne informacije,
17:20
or made you sad or infected you with deadly germs,
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ili vas činim tužnim, ili vam prenosim smrtonosne bacile,
17:23
you would cut the ties to me,
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vi biste prekinuli sve veze sa mnom
17:25
and the network would disintegrate.
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i mreža bi se raspala.
17:27
So the spread of good and valuable things
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Dakle prenošenje dobrih i vrednih stvari
17:30
is required to sustain and nourish social networks.
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je neophodno za održavanje i negovanje socijalnih mreža.
17:34
Similarly, social networks are required
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Na sličan način, socijalne mreže su neophodne
17:36
for the spread of good and valuable things,
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za širenje dobrih i vrednih stvari
17:39
like love and kindness
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kao što su ljubav i dobrota
17:41
and happiness and altruism
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i sreća i altruizam
17:43
and ideas.
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i ideje.
17:45
I think, in fact, that if we realized
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Zapravo mislim da, kad bismo shvatili
17:47
how valuable social networks are,
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koliko su društvene mreže vredne,
17:49
we'd spend a lot more time nourishing them and sustaining them,
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provodili bismo mnogo više vremena negujući i održavajući ih,
17:52
because I think social networks
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jer mislim da su društvene mreže
17:54
are fundamentally related to goodness.
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u osnovi povezane sa dobrotom,
17:57
And what I think the world needs now
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i mislim da je danas svetu potrebno
17:59
is more connections.
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više veza.
18:01
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
18:03
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
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