Nicholas Christakis: The hidden influence of social networks

Prevoditelj: Vedran Dizdarevic Recezent: Hrvoje Simic

For me, this story begins about 15 years ago,

Za mene ova priča počinje prije 15 godina,

when I was a hospice doctor at the University of Chicago.

kada sam bio doktor hospicija na Sveučilištu u Chicagu.

And I was taking care of people who were dying and their families

Brinuo sam se o ljudima koji su umirali, i o njihovim obiteljima

in the South Side of Chicago.

u južnom dijelu Chicaga.

And I was observing what happened to people and their families

Promatrao sam što se događa s ljudima i njihovim obiteljima

over the course of their terminal illness.

tijekom smrtonosne bolesti.

And in my lab, I was studying the widower effect,

I na svom institutu sam proučavao tzv. učinak udovca

which is a very old idea in the social sciences,

koji kao ideja već dugo postoji u društvenim znanostima

going back 150 years,

već 150 godina

known as "dying of a broken heart."

također poznat kao "umiranje od slomljena srca".

So, when I die, my wife's risk of death can double,

Po njemu, kada ja umrem, vjerojatnost smrti moje žene

for instance, in the first year.

može se udvostručiti u prvoj godini.

And I had gone to take care of one particular patient,

I brinuo sam se o jednoj pacijentici

a woman who was dying of dementia.

ženi koja je umirala od demencije.

And in this case, unlike this couple,

U ovom slučaju, za razliku od parova,

she was being cared for

o njoj se brinula

by her daughter.

njena kćer.

And the daughter was exhausted from caring for her mother.

I kćer je bila izmorena od brige za svojom majkom.

And the daughter's husband,

Suprug te kćeri

he also was sick

je također bio bolestan

from his wife's exhaustion.

zbog izmorenosti svoje supruge.

And I was driving home one day,

Jednog dana, dok sam se vozio kući

and I get a phone call from the husband's friend,

zove me prijatelj tog supruga

calling me because he was depressed

da mi kaže kako je potišten

about what was happening to his friend.

zbog toga što se dešava njegovom prijatelju.

So here I get this call from this random guy

I tako imam poziv od ove nepoznate osobe

that's having an experience

koja prolazi kroz iskustvo

that's being influenced by people

da ljudi utječu na njega

at some social distance.

preko znatne društvene udaljenosti.

And so I suddenly realized two very simple things:

I iznenada sam shvatio dvije jednostavne stvari.

First, the widowhood effect

Prvo, učinak udovca

was not restricted to husbands and wives.

se ne ograničava na supružnike.

And second, it was not restricted to pairs of people.

I drugo, ne ograničava se na parove ljudi.

And I started to see the world

I počeo sam gledati svijet

in a whole new way,

na sasvim novi način

like pairs of people connected to each other.

kao parove ljudi koji se povezani jedni sa drugima.

And then I realized that these individuals

I onda da su ovi pojedinci

would be connected into foursomes with other pairs of people nearby.

povezani u četvorku sa drugim parovima ljudi oko njih.

And then, in fact, these people

I da su u stvari svi ovi ljudi

were embedded in other sorts of relationships:

povezani kroz razne vrste veza:

marriage and spousal

brak i supružništvo,

and friendship and other sorts of ties.

kroz prijateljstvo i na druge načine.

And that, in fact, these connections were vast

I da su u stvari ove veze nepregledne

and that we were all embedded in this

i da smo svi ugrađeni

broad set of connections with each other.

u široki set međusobnih veza.

So I started to see the world in a completely new way

I tako počinjem gledati na svijet iz skroz novog kuta

and I became obsessed with this.

i to postaje moja opsesija.

I became obsessed with how it might be

Postao sam opčinjen pitanjem, kako to

that we're embedded in these social networks,

da smo ugrađeni u ove društvene mreže

and how they affect our lives.

i kako to utječe na naše živote.

So, social networks are these intricate things of beauty,

Društvene mreže su te fine lijepe stvari

and they're so elaborate and so complex

koje su tako razrađene i složene

and so ubiquitous, in fact,

i tako sveprisutne

that one has to ask what purpose they serve.

da se moramo zapitati čemu ustvari služe.

Why are we embedded in social networks?

Zašto smo svi ugrađeni u društvene mreže?

I mean, how do they form? How do they operate?

Kako nastaju, kako funkcioniraju?

And how do they effect us?

Kako utječu na nas?

So my first topic with respect to this,

I tako moja prva tema u ovom kontekstu

was not death, but obesity.

nije bila smrt, već pretilost.

It had become trendy

Odjednom je postalo moderno

to speak about the "obesity epidemic."

govoriti o epidemskoj pretilosti.

And, along with my collaborator, James Fowler,

Zajedno sa svojim suradnikom, Jamesom Fowlerom

we began to wonder whether obesity really was epidemic

zapitao sam se da li je pretilost odista epidemijska

and could it spread from person to person

i može li se prenostiti sa osobe na osobu

like the four people I discussed earlier.

kao ovo četvero ljudi o kojima sam maloprije govorio.

So this is a slide of some of our initial results.

Na ovoj slici su neki moji početni rezultati.

It's 2,200 people in the year 2000.

To predstavlja 2200 ljudi u 2000. godini.

Every dot is a person. We make the dot size

Svaka točka je osoba. I veličina točke

proportional to people's body size;

je proporcionalna tjelesnoj težini.

so bigger dots are bigger people.

Znači veće točke su veći ljudi.

In addition, if your body size,

I dodatno, ako je težina

if your BMI, your body mass index, is above 30 --

to jest vaš indeks tjelesne mase preko 30,

if you're clinically obese --

ako ste klinički pretili

we also colored the dots yellow.

te točke smo obojili u žuto.

So, if you look at this image, right away you might be able to see

I već prvi pogled na ovu sliku vam pokazuje

that there are clusters of obese and

da postoje skupine pretilih

non-obese people in the image.

i nepretilih ljudi na slici.

But the visual complexity is still very high.

Ali vizualna složenost je još jako visoka.

It's not obvious exactly what's going on.

Nije baš najjasnije što se događa.

In addition, some questions are immediately raised:

Dodatno, neka pitanja se sama namiču.

How much clustering is there?

Koliko tu skupina ima?

Is there more clustering than would be due to chance alone?

Je li ih više nego što bi bilo za očekivati od slučajnosti?

How big are the clusters? How far do they reach?

Koliko su veliki? Koliko daleko idu?

And, most importantly,

I što je najvažnije

what causes the clusters?

zbog čega nastaju skupine?

So we did some mathematics to study the size of these clusters.

Matematičkim metodama smo analizirali veličinu skupina.

This here shows, on the Y-axis,

Ovdje je na Y osi prikazana

the increase in the probability that a person is obese

dodatna vjerojatnost da je osoba pretila

given that a social contact of theirs is obese

u zavisnosti od toga koliko je pretil njihov društevni kontakt.

and, on the X-axis, the degrees of separation between the two people.

Na X osi stupnjevi udaljenosti između osoba.

On the far left, you see the purple line.

Skroz s lijeve strane vidite ljubičastu crtu

It says that, if your friends are obese,

koja govori da ako su vaši prijatelji pretili

your risk of obesity is 45 percent higher.

rizik da i vi budete pretili je 45% veći.

And the next bar over, the [red] line,

A na sljedećem stupcu, narančasta crta

says if your friend's friends are obese,

govori da ako su vam prijatelji od prijatelja pretili

your risk of obesity is 25 percent higher.

vaš rizik pretilosti je 25% viši.

And then the next line over says

I ona sljedeća crta govori

if your friend's friend's friend, someone you probably don't even know, is obese,

da ako je prijatelj prijateljevog prijatelja, koga vjerojatno ne poznajete, pretil

your risk of obesity is 10 percent higher.

vaš rizik da budete pretili je 10% viši.

And it's only when you get to your friend's friend's friend's friends

I tek kad dođete do prijatelja prijatelja prijateljevog prijatelja

that there's no longer a relationship

više ne postoji veza

between that person's body size and your own body size.

između tjelesne težine te osobe i vaše.

Well, what might be causing this clustering?

Znači, što uzrokuje ovo grupiranje?

There are at least three possibilities:

Postoje minimalno tri mogućnosti.

One possibility is that, as I gain weight,

Jedna je, kada se se ja debljam

it causes you to gain weight.

utječem na tebe i debljaš se i ti,

A kind of induction, a kind of spread from person to person.

neka vrsta širenja pretilosti sa osobe na osobu.

Another possibility, very obvious, is homophily,

Druga mogućnost je, očigledno, homofilija.

or, birds of a feather flock together;

Sličnosti se privlače.

here, I form my tie to you

Ja stvaram vezu sa tobom

because you and I share a similar body size.

jer imamo sličnu građu tijela.

And the last possibility is what is known as confounding,

I zadnja mogućnost, nešto što ja zovem zbunjivanje,

because it confounds our ability to figure out what's going on.

jer umanjuje vašu sposobnost, da vidite što se događa.

And here, the idea is not that my weight gain

I ovdje nije stvar u tome, ako se ja debljam

is causing your weight gain,

debljaš se i ti zbog toga,

nor that I preferentially form a tie with you

niti da radije ulazim u vezu sa tobom

because you and I share the same body size,

zato što imamo istu težinu

but rather that we share a common exposure

već zato što smo oboje izloženi

to something, like a health club

nečemu poput fitnes centra

that makes us both lose weight at the same time.

zbog čega oboje mršavimo u isto vrijeme.

When we studied these data, we found evidence for all of these things,

I kada smo analizirali podatke, pronašli smo dokaze za sve ove stvari

including for induction.

uključujući i širenje.

And we found that if your friend becomes obese,

I otkrili smo, da ako vaš prijatelj postaje pretil,

it increases your risk of obesity by about 57 percent

to povećava se vaš rizik od pretilosti za 57%

in the same given time period.

u istom razdoblju.

There can be many mechanisms for this effect:

Iza ovog efekta stoje mnogi mehanizmi

One possibility is that your friends say to you something like --

Jedan od mogućih je, da vam prijatelji kažu nešto poput --

you know, they adopt a behavior that spreads to you --

usvajajući ponašanje koje se širi i na vas

like, they say, "Let's go have muffins and beer,"

na primjer kažu "Hajmo na krafne i pivo"

which is a terrible combination. (Laughter)

što je užasna kombinacija

But you adopt that combination,

ali prihvatite li ju je,

and then you start gaining weight like them.

počnete se debljati kao i oni.

Another more subtle possibility

I još jedna, suptilnija mogućnost

is that they start gaining weight, and it changes your ideas

je da ako se oni debljanju, vi mijenjate svoj doživljaj

of what an acceptable body size is.

o tome što je prihvatljiva tjelesna težina.

Here, what's spreading from person to person

I u ovom slučaju, stvar koja se prenosi sa osobe na osobu

is not a behavior, but rather a norm:

nije ponašanje, već norma.

An idea is spreading.

Širi se ideja.

Now, headline writers

Sada, neki novinari

had a field day with our studies.

su se pozabavili našim studijama.

I think the headline in The New York Times was,

Naslov u New York Times-u je bio, mislim,

"Are you packing it on?

"Debljate se?

Blame your fat friends." (Laughter)

Krivi su vaši debeli prijatelji."

What was interesting to us is that the European headline writers

Zanimljivo nam je bilo, da su europski novinari

had a different take: They said,

drugačije pristupili stvari, oni bi rekli,

"Are your friends gaining weight? Perhaps you are to blame."

"Debljaju li vam se prijatelji? Možda ste vi krivi?"

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And we thought this was a very interesting comment on America,

I učinilo nam se da je ovo zanimljiv komentar o samoj Americi,

and a kind of self-serving,

uvijek samo svoj interes,

"not my responsibility" kind of phenomenon.

fenomen tipa "nije moja odgovornost".

Now, I want to be very clear: We do not think our work

Da budem jasan o jednoj stvari, naša saznanja

should or could justify prejudice

ne smiju opravdavati predrasude

against people of one or another body size at all.

prema ljudima ove ili one tjelesne veličine.

Our next questions was:

Sljedeće što smo se pitali bilo je:

Could we actually visualize this spread?

Možemo li vizualizirati ovo širenje?

Was weight gain in one person actually spreading

Da li se debljanje jedne osobe prenosilo

to weight gain in another person?

na drugu osobu?

And this was complicated because

I ovaj dio bio je kompliciran

we needed to take into account the fact that the network structure,

jer smo morali uzeti u obzir da se struktura mreže,

the architecture of the ties, was changing across time.

način na koji je povezana, mijenja s vremenom.

In addition, because obesity is not a unicentric epidemic,

I pošto pretilost nije epidemija s jednom polaznom točkom,

there's not a Patient Zero of the obesity epidemic --

ne postoji "nulti pacijent" epidemije pretilosti.

if we find that guy, there was a spread of obesity out from him --

Ne možemo za nijednu osobu reći da se pretilost širi od nje.

it's a multicentric epidemic.

Imamo multicentrični problem.

Lots of people are doing things at the same time.

Mnogi ljudi učestvuju u isto vrijeme.

And I'm about to show you a 30 second video animation

I pokazati ću vam video animaciju od 30 sekundi

that took me and James five years of our lives to do.

za koju nam je trebalo pet godina da je napravimo.

So, again, every dot is a person.

Opet, svaka točka predstavlja jednu osobu.

Every tie between them is a relationship.

Svaka poveznica između njih je međuljudski odnos.

We're going to put this into motion now,

I sada ćemo pokrenuti animaciju

taking daily cuts through the network for about 30 years.

promatrajući svakodnevno stanje mreže kroz oko 30 godina.

The dot sizes are going to grow,

Točke će početi rasti.

you're going to see a sea of yellow take over.

Vidjećete kako se pojavljuje mnoštvo žutih točaka.

You're going to see people be born and die --

Vidjet će te ljude koji se rađaju i umiru.

dots will appear and disappear --

Točke će se pojavljivati i nestajati.

ties will form and break, marriages and divorces,

Veze će nastajati i kidati se. Brakovi i razvodi,

friendings and defriendings.

sklapanje i raskidanje prijateljstava,

A lot of complexity, a lot is happening

dosta složenosti, mnogo toga se događa

just in this 30-year period

u samo trideset godina.

that includes the obesity epidemic.

I to uključuje i epidemiju pretilosti.

And, by the end, you're going to see clusters

I na kraju će te vidjeti skupine

of obese and non-obese individuals

pretilih i ne-pretilih pojedinaca

within the network.

unutar mreže.

Now, when looked at this,

Nakon što sam ovo vidio

it changed the way I see things,

promijenio sam način kako gledam na stvari

because this thing, this network

jer ova stvar, ova mreža

that's changing across time,

koja se mijenja s vremenom,

it has a memory, it moves,

ima pamćenje, kreće se,

things flow within it,

stvari plove kroz nju,

it has a kind of consistency --

ima svoju vrstu konzistencije,

people can die, but it doesn't die;

ljudi umiru, ali ona ne umire

it still persists --

ona uvijek opstaje.

and it has a kind of resilience

I ima neku vrstu otpornosti

that allows it to persist across time.

koja joj dozvoljava da opstane s vremenom.

And so, I came to see these kinds of social networks

Tako sam počeo promatrati dijelove društvenih mreža

as living things,

kao živa bića,

as living things that we could put under a kind of microscope

kao živa bića koja možemo staviti pod mikroskop

to study and analyze and understand.

proučavati ih, analizirati i razumjeti.

And we used a variety of techniques to do this.

I služimo se mnogim tehnikama da to učinimo.

And we started exploring all kinds of other phenomena.

Počeli smo proučavati razne vrste fenomena.

We looked at smoking and drinking behavior,

Promatrali smo pušenje i pijenje,

and voting behavior,

glasanje na izborima,

and divorce -- which can spread --

razvode, koji se mogu širiti,

and altruism.

i altruizam.

And, eventually, we became interested in emotions.

I na kraju su nas zainteresirale i emocije.

Now, when we have emotions,

Sada, kada nas obuzmu emocije,

we show them.

mi ih pokazujemo.

Why do we show our emotions?

Zašto pokazujemo svoje emocije?

I mean, there would be an advantage to experiencing

Znate, imalo bi prednosti da svoje emocije

our emotions inside, you know, anger or happiness.

zadržimo u sebi, kao bijes ili sreću,

But we don't just experience them, we show them.

ali mi ih ne zadržavamo, mi ih pokazujemo.

And not only do we show them, but others can read them.

I ne samo da ih pokazujemo, već ih i drugi mogu tumačiti.

And, not only can they read them, but they copy them.

I ne samo tumačiti već i kopirati.

There's emotional contagion

Emocije se prenose

that takes place in human populations.

u ljudskoj populaciji.

And so this function of emotions

Tako da emocije imaju funkciju

suggests that, in addition to any other purpose they serve,

pored svake ostale svrhe kojoj služe,

they're a kind of primitive form of communication.

da su vrsta primitivnog oblika komunikacije.

And that, in fact, if we really want to understand human emotions,

Ako želimo da stvarno razumijemo ljudske emocije,

we need to think about them in this way.

moramo ih promatrati na ovaj način.

Now, we're accustomed to thinking about emotions in this way,

Navikli smo da razmišljamo o svojim emocijama na sljedeći način,

in simple, sort of, brief periods of time.

pojednostavljeno, u kratkim vremenskim rokovima.

So, for example,

Tako na primjer

I was giving this talk recently in New York City,

nedavno sam držao ovo predavanje u New Yorku

and I said, "You know when you're on the subway

i rekao sam "Znate, kada ste na podzemnoj željeznici

and the other person across the subway car

i osoba koja vam je prekoputa

smiles at you,

vam se nasmije,

and you just instinctively smile back?"

vi instinktivno odgovarate osmjehom."

And they looked at me and said, "We don't do that in New York City." (Laughter)

Oni me pogledaju i kažu: "Mi to u New Yorku ne radimo".

And I said, "Everywhere else in the world,

A ja kažem: "Svugdje drugo na svijetu

that's normal human behavior."

to je normalno ljudsko ponašanje."

And so there's a very instinctive way

Tako da postoji instinktivan način

in which we briefly transmit emotions to each other.

kojim na brzinu prenosimo emocije jedni drugima.

And, in fact, emotional contagion can be broader still.

Ustvari širenje emocija može biti još širih razmjera,

Like we could have punctuated expressions of anger,

kao što postoje višestruki izljevi bijesa

as in riots.

za vrijeme nereda.

The question that we wanted to ask was:

Pitanje koje smo željeli postaviti

Could emotion spread,

Mogu li se emocije širiti

in a more sustained way than riots, across time

na održiviji način nego u neredima, tijekom dužeg vremena,

and involve large numbers of people,

i uključiti veći broj ljudi,

not just this pair of individuals smiling at each other in the subway car?

ne samo na pojedince koji se osmjehuju na podzemnoj željeznici?

Maybe there's a kind of below the surface, quiet riot

Možda ispod površine postoji tihi nemir

that animates us all the time.

koji nas pokreće svo vrijeme.

Maybe there are emotional stampedes

Možda postoje emocionalna stampeda

that ripple through social networks.

koja prolaze kroz društvene mreže.

Maybe, in fact, emotions have a collective existence,

Možda emocije stvarno imaju kolektivno postojanje

not just an individual existence.

ne samo pojedinačno.

And this is one of the first images we made to study this phenomenon.

Ovo je jedna od prvih slika koju smo napravili da proučimo ovaj fenomen.

Again, a social network,

Ponovno, društvena mreža,

but now we color the people yellow if they're happy

no sada bojimo ljude u žuto, ako su sretni

and blue if they're sad and green in between.

plavo ako su tužni i u zeleno ako su tu negdje između.

And if you look at this image, you can right away see

I ako pogledate ovu sliku, odmah vidite,

clusters of happy and unhappy people,

grupe sretnih i nesretnih ljudi.

again, spreading to three degrees of separation.

ponovno se šireći preko tri stupnja udaljenosti.

And you might form the intuition

Mogli bi formirati intuiciju

that the unhappy people

kako se nesretni ljudi

occupy a different structural location within the network.

nalaze na drugačijim strukturalnim pozicijama u mreži.

There's a middle and an edge to this network,

Postoje sredina i rub ove mreže

and the unhappy people seem to be

i nesretni ljudi se, izgleda

located at the edges.

nalaze na rubovima.

So to invoke another metaphor,

Da se poslužimo metaforom,

if you imagine social networks as a kind of

ako zamislite društvenu mrežu kao

vast fabric of humanity --

tkaninu načinjenu od ljudi

I'm connected to you and you to her, on out endlessly into the distance --

- ja sam povezan sa tobom, ti s njom i tako u nedogled -

this fabric is actually like

ta tkanina je ustvari kao

an old-fashioned American quilt,

staromodni skrpani pokrivač,

and it has patches on it: happy and unhappy patches.

puna zakrpa, sretnih i nesretnih zakrpa.

And whether you become happy or not

I hoćete li biti sretni ili ne

depends in part on whether you occupy a happy patch.

zavisi od toga da li ste u sretnoj ili nesretnoj zakrpi.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So, this work with emotions,

Znači ovo funkcionira sa emocijama

which are so fundamental,

koje su toliko temeljne,

then got us to thinking about: Maybe

da smo pomislili da su možda

the fundamental causes of human social networks

osnovni razlozi postojanja ljudskih društvenih mreža

are somehow encoded in our genes.

na neki način kodirani u našim genima.

Because human social networks, whenever they are mapped,

Jer ljudske društvene mreže, kada god da su istražene,

always kind of look like this:

uvijek izgledaju otprilike ovako

the picture of the network.

kao ova slika mreže,

But they never look like this.

ali nikada ne izgledaju ovako.

Why do they not look like this?

Zašto ne izgledaju ovako?

Why don't we form human social networks

Zašto ne formiramo ljudske društvene mreže

that look like a regular lattice?

koje izgledaju kao jednolična mreža.

Well, the striking patterns of human social networks,

Naime, očigledna osobina ljudskih društvenih mreža

their ubiquity and their apparent purpose

njihova sveprisutnost i očigledni smisao

beg questions about whether we evolved to have

nameću pitanje da li smo evolurali

human social networks in the first place,

da formiramo društvene mreže

and whether we evolved to form networks

i da li smo evoluirali da imamo mreže

with a particular structure.

određene strukture.

And notice first of all -- so, to understand this, though,

I obratite prvo pažnju - da bi ovo razumjeli

we need to dissect network structure a little bit first --

moramo prvo malo razložiti strukturu mreže.

and notice that every person in this network

Obratite pažnju da svaka osoba u mreži

has exactly the same structural location as every other person.

ima istu strukturnu poziciju kao i svaka druga osoba.

But that's not the case with real networks.

Ali to nije slučaj sa pravim mrežama.

So, for example, here is a real network of college students

Ovo je primjer stvarne mreže studenata s fakulteta

at an elite northeastern university.

jednog od elitnih sveučilišta na sjeveroistoku.

And now I'm highlighting a few dots.

I sada ću obilježiti par točaka.

If you look here at the dots,

I ako pogledate ove točke ovdje

compare node B in the upper left

uporedite čvor B na gornjoj lijevoj strani

to node D in the far right;

s čvorom D na donjoj desnoj.

B has four friends coming out from him

B je povezan s četiri prijatelja.

and D has six friends coming out from him.

D je povezan sa šest prijatelja.

And so, those two individuals have different numbers of friends.

Tako da ove dvije osobe imaju različit broj prijatelja --

That's very obvious, we all know that.

ovo je očigledno, to svi znamo.

But certain other aspects

Ali neki drugi aspekti

of social network structure are not so obvious.

struktura društvene mreže nisu tako očiti.

Compare node B in the upper left to node A in the lower left.

Uporedite B gore lijevo, sa čvorom A dolje lijevo.

Now, those people both have four friends,

Obadvoje imaju po četiri prijatelja

but A's friends all know each other,

Ali prijatelji od A se međusobno poznaju,

and B's friends do not.

a prijatelji od B ne.

So the friend of a friend of A's

Znači prijatelj prijatelja osobe A

is, back again, a friend of A's,

je opet prijatelj sa A.

whereas the friend of a friend of B's is not a friend of B's,

Dok prijatelj prijatelja od B, nije prijatelj sa B.

but is farther away in the network.

i udaljeniji je u mreži.

This is known as transitivity in networks.

Ovo nazivamo tranzitivnošću u mrežama.

And, finally, compare nodes C and D:

I na kraju usporedite čvorove C i D.

C and D both have six friends.

C i D oboje imaju po šest prijatelja.

If you talk to them, and you said, "What is your social life like?"

I kada bi ih pitali "Kakav vam je društveni život?"

they would say, "I've got six friends.

rekli bi "imam šest prijatelja

That's my social experience."

to je moj društveno okruženje."

But now we, with a bird's eye view looking at this network,

Ali sada, promatrajući ovu mrežu iz ptičije presprektive

can see that they occupy very different social worlds.

vidimo da se nalaze u skroz drugačijim društvenim svjetovima,

And I can cultivate that intuition in you by just asking you:

i mogu li vam pobuditi osjećaj za to ako vas pitam

Who would you rather be

tko bi radije bili

if a deadly germ was spreading through the network?

ako se mrežom širi smrtonosni virus?

Would you rather be C or D?

Da li bi radije bili C ili D?

You'd rather be D, on the edge of the network.

Da li bi radije D, na rubu mreže.

And now who would you rather be

A tko bi radije bili

if a juicy piece of gossip -- not about you --

ako se mrežom širi sočan trač,

was spreading through the network? (Laughter)

ne o vama.

Now, you would rather be C.

Radije bi bili C.

So different structural locations

Tako da drugačije lokacije u strukturi

have different implications for your life.

imaju različite posljedice na vaš život.

And, in fact, when we did some experiments looking at this,

I kada smo u nekim eksperimentima promatrali ovo

what we found is that 46 percent of the variation

našli smo da se 46% varijacije

in how many friends you have

u broju prijatelja koje imate

is explained by your genes.

objašnjanava vašim genima.

And this is not surprising. We know that some people are born shy

I ovo nije iznenađujuće. Znamo da se neki ljudi rode stidljivi

and some are born gregarious. That's obvious.

a neki društveni. To je očigledno.

But we also found some non-obvious things.

Ali našli smo i neke stvari koje su manje očigledne.

For instance, 47 percent in the variation

Na primjer, 47% varijacije

in whether your friends know each other

da li se vaši prijatelji međusobno poznaju

is attributable to your genes.

se može povezati sa vašim genima.

Whether your friends know each other

Da li se vaši prijatelji međusobno poznaju

has not just to do with their genes, but with yours.

nema samo veze sa njihovim genima, već i vašim.

And we think the reason for this is that some people

I razlog ovome je kako vjerujemo, da neki ljudi

like to introduce their friends to each other -- you know who you are --

rado upoznaju svoje prijatelje jedne sa drugima

and others of you keep them apart and don't introduce your friends to each other.

a neki opet ih drže razdvojenima i ne upoznaju svoje prijatelje.

And so some people knit together the networks around them,

Dok neki ljudi pletu mreže oko sebe

creating a kind of dense web of ties

stvarajući neku vrstu dobro povezane mreže

in which they're comfortably embedded.

u kojoj su ugodno ukorijenjeni.

And finally, we even found that

I na kraju smo čak pronašli

30 percent of the variation

da 30% varijacije

in whether or not people are in the middle or on the edge of the network

da li se ljudi nalaze u sredini ili krajevima mreže

can also be attributed to their genes.

također može biti određeno genima.

So whether you find yourself in the middle or on the edge

Da li se nalazite u sredini ili na rubu

is also partially heritable.

je znači dijelom nasljedno.

Now, what is the point of this?

Sada, koji ja smisao ovoga?

How does this help us understand?

Na koji način nam pomaže da razumijemo?

How does this help us

Kako nam ovo pomaže

figure out some of the problems that are affecting us these days?

da razumijemo probleme sadašnjice?

Well, the argument I'd like to make is that networks have value.

Stav koji bih ja zauzeo, je da mreže imaju vrijednost.

They are a kind of social capital.

One su neka vrste društvenog kapitala.

New properties emerge

Nastaju nove osobine

because of our embeddedness in social networks,

iz ukorijenjenosti u društvenu mrežu.

and these properties inhere

I ove osobine su svojstvene

in the structure of the networks,

strukturi mreže

not just in the individuals within them.

a ne pojedincima koje su u njima.

So think about these two common objects.

Razmislite o ova dva obična predmeta.

They're both made of carbon,

Obadva se sastoje od ugljika

and yet one of them has carbon atoms in it

ali su u jednom od njih atomi ugljika

that are arranged in one particular way -- on the left --

raspoređeni na određeni način, ovdje lijevo,

and you get graphite, which is soft and dark.

i dobijemo grafit, koji je mekan i taman.

But if you take the same carbon atoms

No uzmeno li iste atome ugljika

and interconnect them a different way,

i povežemo ih na drugi način

you get diamond, which is clear and hard.

dobijemo dijamant, koji je proziran i tvrd.

And those properties of softness and hardness and darkness and clearness

I ove osobine, kao mekoća, tvrdoća, zatamnjenost ili prozirnost

do not reside in the carbon atoms;

se ne nalaze u atomima ugljika,

they reside in the interconnections between the carbon atoms,

negu u vezama između atoma ugljika

or at least arise because of the

ili se u najmanju ruku pojavljuju zbog

interconnections between the carbon atoms.

vrste veze između atoma ugljika.

So, similarly, the pattern of connections among people

Slično tomu, obrazac veza između ljudi

confers upon the groups of people

donosi grupi ljudi

different properties.

različite osobine.

It is the ties between people

Veze između ljudi

that makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts.

su ono zbog čega je cjelina veća od zbroja njenih dijelova.

And so it is not just what's happening to these people --

I nije samo ono što se dešava ljudima

whether they're losing weight or gaining weight, or becoming rich or becoming poor,

je li mršave ili se debljaju, da li se bogate ili osiromašuju

or becoming happy or not becoming happy -- that affects us;

ili postaju stretni ili nesretni, to što utiče na nas.

it's also the actual architecture

To je također i arhitektura

of the ties around us.

veza oko nas.

Our experience of the world

Naše poimanje svijeta

depends on the actual structure

zavisi od strukture

of the networks in which we're residing

mreže u kojoj se nalazimo

and on all the kinds of things that ripple and flow

i o svim stvarima koje se prožimaju i teku

through the network.

kroz mrežu.

Now, the reason, I think, that this is the case

Sada, mislim da je razlog ovomu

is that human beings assemble themselves

je da se ljudska bića povezuju

and form a kind of superorganism.

i formiraju neku vrstu superorganizma.

Now, a superorganism is a collection of individuals

Superorganizam je neka skupina pojedinaca

which show or evince behaviors or phenomena

koji pokazuje ili iz kojeg se vide ponašanja ili fenomeni

that are not reducible to the study of individuals

koje se ne mogu svesti na proučavanje pojedinca

and that must be understood by reference to,

i moraju se razumjeti u odnosu na

and by studying, the collective.

i kroz analizu kolektiva

Like, for example, a hive of bees

kao na primjer roj pčela

that's finding a new nesting site,

koje traži mjesto za novu košnicu.

or a flock of birds that's evading a predator,

ili jato ptica koje bježi od grabljivca

or a flock of birds that's able to pool its wisdom

ili jato ptica koje je u stanju čuvati svoje iskustvo

and navigate and find a tiny speck

i navigirati da nađu maleni

of an island in the middle of the Pacific,

otok negdje nasred Pacifika.

or a pack of wolves that's able

Ili čopor vukova koji može

to bring down larger prey.

uloviti veliku lovinu.

Superorganisms have properties

Superorganizmi imaju osobine

that cannot be understood just by studying the individuals.

koje se ne mogu razumjeti ako samo promatramo pojedince.

I think understanding social networks

Smatram da nam razumjevanje društvenih mreža,

and how they form and operate

kako se formiraju i funkcioniraju

can help us understand not just health and emotions

može pomoći da razumijemo, ne samo zdravlje i emocije

but all kinds of other phenomena --

već sve vrste fenomena

like crime, and warfare,

poput kriminala ili ratovanja

and economic phenomena like bank runs

i ekonomskih fenomena poput paničnog dizanja ušteđevine

and market crashes

i krahova tržišta,

and the adoption of innovation

prihvatanja inovacije

and the spread of product adoption.

i uvođenje novog proizvoda.

Now, look at this.

Vidite sada ovo.

I think we form social networks

Mislim da formiramo društvene mreže

because the benefits of a connected life

jer prednosti povezanog života

outweigh the costs.

nadmašuju troškove.

If I was always violent towards you

Ako sam ja bio nasilan prema vama

or gave you misinformation

ili vam dao pogrešnu informaciju

or made you sad or infected you with deadly germs,

ili vas rastužio, ili vas zarazio smrtonosnim virusom,

you would cut the ties to me,

raskinuli bi vezu sa mnom

and the network would disintegrate.

i mreža bi se raspadala.

So the spread of good and valuable things

Tako da je širenje dobrih i vrijednih stvari

is required to sustain and nourish social networks.

potrebno za održavanje i hranjenje društvenih mreža.

Similarly, social networks are required

Slično, društvene mreže su neophodne

for the spread of good and valuable things,

za širenje dobrih i vrijednih stvari.

like love and kindness

poput ljubavi i dobrote

and happiness and altruism

sreće i altruizma

and ideas.

i ideja.

I think, in fact, that if we realized

Ustvari mislim da ako bi shvatili

how valuable social networks are,

koliko društvene mreže vrijede

we'd spend a lot more time nourishing them and sustaining them,

više bi vremena provodili njegujući i održavajući ih.

because I think social networks

jer smatram da su socijalne mreže

are fundamentally related to goodness.

u osnovi povezane sa dobrotom

And what I think the world needs now

i ono što svijetu trenutno treba

is more connections.

je više veza.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)