Esther Duflo: Social experiments to fight poverty

468,900 views ・ 2010-05-04

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Sandra Gojic
00:18
So here it is. You can check: I am short, I'm French,
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Dakle, možete videti, niska sam, Francuskinja sam,
00:20
I have a pretty strong French accent,
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imam prilično jak francusk akcenat
00:22
so that's going to be clear in a moment.
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što će biti jasno za koji trenutak.
00:26
Maybe a sobering thought
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Možda otrežnjujuća misao
00:28
and something you all know about.
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i nešto za šta svi znate.
00:30
And I suspect many of you gave
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Pretpostavljam da su mnogi od vas dali
00:32
something to the people of Haiti this year.
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nešto ljudima Haitija ove godine.
00:35
And there is something else
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I postoji još nešto
00:37
I believe in the back of your mind
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za šta sam uverena da, u svojoj podsvesti
00:39
you also know.
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takođe znate,
00:41
That is, every day,
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a to je da svakodnevno
00:43
25,000 children die
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25 000 dece umre
00:45
of entirely preventable causes.
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usled uzroka koje je moguće sprečiti.
00:48
That's a Haiti earthquake every eight days.
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To je kao zemljotres na Haitiju na svakih 8 dana.
00:51
And I suspect many of you probably gave something
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Pretpostavljam da je mnogo vas dalo nešto
00:53
towards that problem as well,
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i za ovaj problem, takođe,
00:55
but somehow it doesn't happen
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ali to se nekako ne dešava
00:57
with the same intensity.
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sa istim intenzitetom.
00:59
So why is that?
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Zašto je to tako?
01:02
Well, here is a thought experiment for you.
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Pa, evo jednog misaonog eksperimenta za vas.
01:05
Imagine you have a few million dollars that you've raised --
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Zamislite da ste prikupili nekoliko miliona dolara.
01:07
maybe you're a politician in a developing country
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Možda ste političar u nekoj zemlji u razvoju,
01:10
and you have a budget to spend. You want to spend it on the poor:
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i imate budžet koji želite da potrošite na siromašne.
01:13
How do you go about it?
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Kako ćete to izvesti?
01:16
Do you believe the people who tell you
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Da li verujete ljudima koji vam kažu
01:18
that all we need to do is to spend money?
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da sve što treba da uradimo je da trošimo novac,
01:20
That we know how to eradicate poverty,
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da znamo kako da iskorenimo siromaštvo,
01:23
we just need to do more?
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samo treba da se potrudimo?
01:25
Or do you believe the people who tell you that
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Ili verujete ljudima koji vam kažu
01:27
aid is not going to help, on the contrary it might hurt,
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da pomoć ne može da pomogne, naprotiv, može da šteti,
01:30
it might exacerbate corruption, dependence, etc.?
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da pogorša korupciju, zavisnost, itd?
01:34
Or maybe you turn to the past.
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Ili možda se okrećete prošlosti.
01:36
After all, we have spent billions of dollars on aid.
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Ipak smo potrošili milijarde dolara na pomoć.
01:39
Maybe you look at the past and see.
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Možda gledate u prošlost i vidite
01:41
Has it done any good?
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da li je donela nešto dobro.
01:43
And, sadly, we don't know.
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I nažalost, to ne znamo.
01:45
And worst of all, we will never know.
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Što je najgore, nikada nećemo ni znati.
01:49
And the reason is that -- take Africa for example.
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A razlog tome - uzmite za primer Afriku -
01:51
Africans have already got a lot of aid.
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Afrikanci su dobili mnogo pomoći.
01:53
These are the blue bars.
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To su plavi stupci.
01:55
And the GDP in Africa is not making much progress.
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A bruto domaća prozvodnja u Africi ne napreduje.
01:58
Okay, fine. How do you know what
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Okej, dobro. Kako znate šta
02:00
would have happened without the aid?
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bi se dogodilo bez pomoći?
02:02
Maybe it would have been much worse,
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Možda bi bilo mnogo gore.
02:05
or maybe it would have been better.
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Ili bi možda bilo bolje.
02:07
We have no idea. We don't know what the counterfactual is.
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Nemamo pojma. Ne znamo kako bi drugačije bilo.
02:10
There's only one Africa.
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Postoji samo jedna Afrika.
02:12
So what do you do?
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Dakle, šta radite?
02:14
To give the aid, and hope and pray that something comes out of it?
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Dajete pomoć i nadate se i molite da će nešto proizaći iz toga?
02:18
Or do you focus on your everyday life
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Ili se fokusirate na svakodnevni život
02:21
and let the earthquake every eight days
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i dozvoljavate da se zemljotres svakih 8 dana
02:23
continue to happen?
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nastavlja?
02:25
The thing is, if we don't know
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Stvar je u tome da, ako ne znamo
02:27
whether we are doing any good,
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da li činimo dobro,
02:29
we are not any better
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nismo ništa bolji
02:31
than the Medieval doctors and their leeches.
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od srednjevekovnih doktora sa pijavicama.
02:34
Sometimes the patient gets better, sometimes the patient dies.
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Nekada pacijentu bude bolje, nekada pacijent umre.
02:37
Is it the leeches? Is it something else?
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Da li je to zbog pijavica? Ili nečeg drugog?
02:40
We don't know.
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Ne znamo.
02:42
So here are some other questions.
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Evo nekih drugih pitanja.
02:44
They're smaller questions,
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Ona su manja,
02:46
but they are not that small.
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ali nisu previše mala.
02:48
Immunization, that's the cheapest way
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Imunizacija je najjevtiniji način
02:51
to save a child's life.
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da spasite dečiji život.
02:53
And the world has spent a lot of money on it:
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Svet troši mnogo novca na to.
02:55
The GAVI and the Gates Foundations
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GAVI (Globalna Alijansa za Vakcine i Imunizaciju) i Gates fondacija
02:57
are each pledging a lot of money towards it,
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daju mnogo novca za ovo.
02:59
and developing countries themselves have been doing a lot of effort.
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I zemlje u razvoju takođe ulažu mnogo napora.
03:02
And yet, every year
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A ipak, svake godine,
03:04
at least 25 million children
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najmanje 25 miliona dece
03:06
do not get the immunization they should get.
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ne dobije imunizaciju koju bi trebalo.
03:09
So this is what you call a "last mile problem."
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To je ono što zovete "problemom poslednje milje".
03:12
The technology is there,
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Postoji tehnologija.
03:14
the infrastructure is there,
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Postoji infrastruktura.
03:16
and yet it doesn't happen.
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Ali ipak, to se ne dešava.
03:18
So you have your million.
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Znači imate svoj milion.
03:20
How do you use your million
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Kako ćete iskoristiti svoj milion
03:22
to solve this last mile problem?
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da rešite ovaj "problem poslednje milje"?
03:24
And here's another question:
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Evo još jednog pitanja:
03:26
Malaria. Malaria kills almost
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malarija. Malarija ubija skoro
03:29
900,000 people every year,
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900 000 ljudi svake godine,
03:32
most of them in Sub-Saharan Africa,
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većinu u pod-saharskoj Africi,
03:34
most of them under five.
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od kojih je najviše mlađe od 5 godina.
03:36
In fact, that is the leading cause of under-five mortality.
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Ustvari, to je vodeći uzrok smrtnosti dece ispod 5 godina.
03:39
We already know how to kill malaria,
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Već znamo kako da izlečimo malariju,
03:42
but some people come to you and say,
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ali neki ljude vam prilaze i kažu,
03:44
"You have your millions. How about bed nets?"
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"Imate milione. Šta mislite o baldahinima?"
03:47
Bed nets are very cheap.
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Baldahini su veoma jevtini.
03:49
For 10 dollars, you can manufacture and ship
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Za 10 dolara možete proizvesti i isporučiti
03:52
an insecticide treated bed net
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baldahin sa insekticidom,
03:54
and you can teach someone to use them.
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i možete naučiti nekoga da ga koristi.
03:56
And, not only do they protect the people who sleep under them,
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I ne samo da oni štite ljude koji pod njima spavaju,
03:59
but they have these great contagion benefits.
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nego koriste i kao zaštita od zaraza.
04:01
If half of a community sleeps under a net,
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Ako polovina zajednice spava pod mrežom,
04:04
the other half also benefits
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druga polovina takođe ima koristi
04:06
because the contagion of the disease spread.
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zbog širenja zaraznih bolesti.
04:09
And yet, only a quarter of kids at risk sleep under a net.
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Ali i pored toga, tek četvrtina ugrožene dece spava pod mrežama.
04:12
Societies should be willing to go out
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Društva bi trebalo da žele da
04:14
and subsidize the net, give them for free,
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sponzorišu mreže, da ih dele besplatno,
04:16
or, for that matter, pay people to use them
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ili još bolje, da plate ljudima da ih koriste
04:18
because of those contagion benefits.
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jer štite od zaraze.
04:20
"Not so fast," say other people.
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"Ne tako brzo", kažu drugi ljudi.
04:22
"If you give the nets for free,
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"Ako podelite mreže
04:24
people are not going to value them.
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ljudi ih neće ceniti.
04:26
They're not going to use them,
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Neće ih koristiti,
04:28
or at least they're not going to use them as bed nets,
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ili ih neće koristiti na krevetima,
04:30
maybe as fishing nets."
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nego kao mreže za pecanje."
04:32
So, what do you do?
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Dakle, šta ćete uraditi?
04:34
Do you give the nets for free to maximize coverage,
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Podeliti mreže i povećati pokrivenost?
04:36
or do you make people pay
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Ili ćete naterati ljude da ih plate
04:38
in order to make sure that they really value them?
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kako biste ih naveli da ih stvarno cene?
04:40
How do you know?
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Kako da znate?
04:42
And a third question: Education.
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I treće pitanje: obrazovanje.
04:44
Maybe that's the solution, maybe we should send kids to school.
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Možda je to rešenje. Možda bi trebalo da šaljemo decu u škole.
04:46
But how do you do that?
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Ali kako ćete uraditi to?
04:48
Do you hire teachers? Do you build more schools?
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Zaposliti nastavnike? Izgraditi više škola?
04:50
Do you provide school lunch?
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Da li obezbediti ručak u školi?
04:52
How do you know?
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Kako da znate?
04:54
So here is the thing.
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Evo u čemu je stvar.
04:56
I cannot answer the big question,
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Ja ne mogu da odgovorim na veliko pitanje,
04:58
whether aid did any good or not.
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da li je pomoć koristila ili ne,
05:00
But these three questions, I can answer them.
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ali na ova tri pitanja mogu da odgovorim.
05:04
It's not the Middle Ages anymore,
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Nije više Srednji vek.
05:06
it's the 21st century.
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Sada je 21. vek.
05:08
And in the 20th century,
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A u 20. veku
05:10
randomized, controlled trials
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su nasumična, kontrolisana testiranja
05:12
have revolutionized medicine
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preokrenula medicinu,
05:14
by allowing us to distinguish
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omogućavajući nam da utvrdimo
05:16
between drugs that work
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koji lekovi deluju
05:18
and drugs that don't work.
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a koji ne.
05:20
And you can do the same
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Možete sprovoditi ista,
05:22
randomized, controlled trial for social policy.
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nasumična, kontrolisana testiranja socijalne politike.
05:25
You can put social innovation to the same
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Možete da podvrgnete socijalne inovacije istim
05:27
rigorous, scientific tests
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strogim, naučnim testovima
05:29
that we use for drugs.
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koje koristimo za lekove.
05:31
And in this way, you can take the guesswork
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Na ovaj način otklanjate nagađanje
05:34
out of policy-making
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iz donošenja zakona,
05:36
by knowing what works,
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tako što znate šta funkcioniše
05:38
what doesn't work and why.
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a šta ne i zašto.
05:40
And I'll give you some examples with those three questions.
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Daću vam neke primere za ta tri pitanja.
05:44
So I start with immunization.
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Počeću sa imunizacijom.
05:46
Here's Udaipur District, Rajasthan. Beautiful.
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Ovo je okrug Udaipur u Radžastanu, prelepo.
05:49
Well, when I started working there,
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Kada sam počela tamo da radim,
05:51
about one percent of children
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otprilike 1% dece
05:53
were fully immunized.
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je bilo vakcinisano.
05:55
That's bad, but there are places like that.
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To je loše, ali takva mesta postoje.
05:58
Now, it's not because the vaccines are not there --
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To nije zbog toga što vakcina nema.
06:00
they are there and they are free --
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Ima ih i besplatne su.
06:02
and it's not because parents do not care about their kids.
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I nije zbog toga što roditeljima nije stalo do svoje dece.
06:05
The same child that is not immunized against measles,
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Ako dete nije vakcinisano protiv boginja,
06:08
if they do get measles, parents will spend
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a dobije ih, roditelji će potrošiti
06:10
thousands of rupees to help them.
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hiljade rupija da mu pomognu.
06:12
So you get these empty village subcenters
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Tako dobijate prazne seoske centre
06:14
and crowded hospitals.
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i pune bolnice.
06:16
So what is the problem?
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U čemu je problem?
06:18
Well, part of the problem, surely, is people do not fully understand.
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Pa, deo problema je u tome što ljudi ne razumeju u potpunosti.
06:21
After all, in this country as well,
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Čak i u ovoj zemlji
06:23
all sorts of myths and misconceptions
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postoje svakavi mitovi i pogrešnja uverenja
06:25
go around immunization.
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o imunizaciji.
06:28
So if that's the case, that's difficult,
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Ako je to slučaj, onda je veoma teško
06:30
because persuasion is really difficult.
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jer je ubeđivanje veoma teško.
06:33
But maybe there is another problem as well.
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Ali možda postoji još jedan problem.
06:35
It's going from intention to action.
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Problem između namere i realizacije.
06:38
Imagine you are a mother
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Zamislite da ste majka
06:40
in Udaipur District, Rajasthan.
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u okrugu Udaipur u Radžastanu.
06:42
You have to walk a few kilometers to get your kids immunized.
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Morate da prepešačite nekoliko kilometara da biste vakcinisali decu.
06:45
And maybe when you get there, what you find is this:
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I možda kada stignete tamo, zatekete ovo.
06:47
The subcenter is closed. Ao you have to come back,
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Centar je zatvoren i morate da se vratite.
06:49
and you are so busy and you have so many other things to do,
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Vi ste vrlo zauzeti, imate toliko drugih stvari da uradite,
06:52
you will always tend to postpone and postpone,
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uvek ćete odlagati i odlagati
06:54
and eventually it gets too late.
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dok na kraju ne bude kasno.
06:56
Well, if that's the problem, then that's much easier.
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Pa, ako je to problem, onda je mnogo lakše
06:59
Because A, we can make it easy,
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jer, A - možemo olakšati
07:02
and B, we can maybe
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i B - možda možemo
07:04
give people a reason to act today,
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ljudima dati razlog da reaguju danas,
07:06
rather than wait till tomorrow.
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pre nego da čekaju sutra.
07:08
So these are simple ideas, but we didn't know.
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Ovo su dakle jednostavne ideje, ali mi nismo znali.
07:10
So let's try them.
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Isprobajmo ih.
07:12
So what we did is we did a randomized, controlled trial
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Sproveli smo nasumična, kontrolisanja testiranja
07:15
in 134 villages in Udaipur Districts.
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u 134 sela u okrugu Udaipur.
07:17
So the blue dots
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Plave tačke
07:19
are selected randomly.
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su nasumično izabrane.
07:21
We made it easy -- I'll tell you how in a moment.
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Učinili smo da bude lako. Objasniću vam za trenutak.
07:24
In the red dots, we made it easy
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U crvenim tačkama smo olakšali
07:26
and gave people a reason to act now.
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i dali ljudima razlog da odmah reaguju.
07:28
The white dots are comparisons, nothing changed.
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Bele tačke su za poređenje, ništa se nije menjalo.
07:31
So we make it easy by organizing
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Olakšali smo tako što smo organizovali
07:33
this monthly camp where people can
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mesečni kamp gde ljudi mogu
07:35
get their kids immunized.
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da vakcinišu svoju decu.
07:37
And then you make it easy
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I onda olakšate
07:39
and give a reason to act now
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i date razlog da se reaguje odmah
07:41
by adding a kilo of lentils for each immunization.
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dajući kilogram sočiva za svaku vakcinaciju.
07:44
Now, a kilo of lentils is tiny.
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E sad, kilogram sočiva je malo.
07:47
It's never going to convince anybody
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Nikada neće ubediti nekoga
07:49
to do something that they don't want to do.
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da uradi nešto što ne želi da uradi.
07:51
On the other hand, if your problem is you tend to postpone,
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S druge strane, ako je vaš problem u tome što odlažete,
07:54
then it might give you a reason to act today
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onda vam može dati razlog da reagujete danas
07:56
rather than later.
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a ne kasnije.
07:58
So what do we find?
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I šta vidimo?
08:00
Well, beforehand, everything is the same.
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Pa, pre svega sve je isto.
08:02
That's the beauty of randomization.
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U tome je lepota nasumičnosti.
08:04
Afterwards,
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Posle,
08:06
the camp -- just having the camp --
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u kampu, samo u kampu,
08:08
increases immunization from six percent to 17 percent.
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vakcinacija je povećana sa 6 na 17%.
08:10
That's full immunization.
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To je potpuna imunizacija.
08:12
That's not bad, that's a good improvement.
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Nije loše. To je dobro poboljšanje.
08:14
Add the lentils and you reach to 38 percent.
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Dodajte sočivo i dolazite do 38%.
08:17
So here you've got your answer.
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Eto vam odgovor.
08:19
Make it easy and give a kilo of lentils,
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Olakšajte i dodajte kilogram sočiva
08:21
you multiply immunization rate by six.
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i imunizacija se povećava 6 puta.
08:24
Now, you might say, "Well, but it's not sustainable.
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Sada, možete reći, "Pa to nije održivo.
08:26
We cannot keep giving lentils to people."
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Ne možemo stalno davati ljudimo sočivo."
08:28
Well, it turns out it's wrong economics,
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Pa, ispostavlja se da je to pogrešna računica
08:30
because it is cheaper
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jer jevtinije je
08:32
to give lentils than not to give them.
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davati ljudima sočivo nego ne davati.
08:34
Since you have to pay for the nurse anyway,
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Pošto svakako morate da platite sestru,
08:36
the cost per immunization
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trošak jedne vakcinacije
08:38
ends up being cheaper if you give incentives than if you don't.
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je manji ako im date motivaciju nego ako to ne učinite.
08:42
How about bed nets?
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Šta je sa baldahinima?
08:44
Should you give them for free, or should you ask people to pay for them?
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Da li da ih poklonite ili da tražite od ljudi da plate?
08:47
So the answer hinges
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Odgovor se nadovezuje
08:49
on the answer to three simple questions.
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na odgovor na tri jednostavna pitanja.
08:51
One is: If people must pay for a bed net,
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Jedno je: ako ljudi moraju da plate za baldahin,
08:54
are they going to purchase them?
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da li će ga kupiti?
08:56
The second one is:
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Drugo:
08:58
If I give bed nets for free,
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ako damo baldahine besplatno
09:00
are people going to use them?
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da li će ih ljudi koristiti?
09:02
And the third one is:
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I treće:
09:04
Do free bed nets discourage future purchase?
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Da li poklanjanje baldahina sprečava njihovu kupovinu u budućnosti?
09:06
The third one is important
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Ovo treće je važno
09:08
because if we think people get used to handouts,
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jer ako mislimo da se ljudi naviknu na besplatne stvari
09:11
it might destroy markets to distribute free bed nets.
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to može uništiti tržište, ako delimo baldahine.
09:14
Now this is a debate that has generated
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Ovo je debata koja je izazvala
09:16
a lot of emotion and angry rhetoric.
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mnogo emotivnih i ljutih reči.
09:19
It's more ideological than practical,
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Više je ideološka nego praktična,
09:21
but it turns out it's an easy question.
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ali odgovara na jedno lako pitanje.
09:23
We can know the answer to this question.
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Možemo znati odgovor na ovo pitanje.
09:25
We can just run an experiment.
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Možemo samo sprovesti eksperiment.
09:27
And many experiments have been run, and they all have the same results,
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I mnogo eksperimenata je sprovedeno i svi oni imaju isti rezultat,
09:29
so I'm just going to talk to you about one.
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sada ću vam pričati o jednom.
09:32
And this one that was in Kenya,
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Ovo je bilo u Keniji,
09:34
they went around and distributed to people
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ljudima su podeljeni
09:36
vouchers, discount vouchers.
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vaučeri za popust.
09:38
So people with their voucher
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Ljudi su sa vaučerima
09:40
could get the bed net in the local pharmacy.
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mogli da kupe baldahin u lokalnoj apoteci.
09:42
And some people get 100 percent discount,
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Neki ljudi dobiju 100% popusta,
09:45
and some people get 20 percent discounts,
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neki 20% popusta,
09:47
and some people get 50 percent discount, etc.
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neki dobiju 50% popusta itd.
09:50
And now we can see what happens.
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I sad vidimo šta se dešava.
09:52
So, how about the purchasing?
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Dakle, šta je sa kupovinom?
09:54
Well, what you can see is that
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Pa, možete videti da
09:56
when people have to pay for their bed nets,
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kada ljudi treba da plate za baldahine,
09:58
the coverage rate really falls down a lot.
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pokrivenost opada u velikoj meri.
10:01
So even with partial subsidy,
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Čak i sa delimičnom subvencijom -
10:03
three dollars is still not the full cost of a bed net,
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3 dolara i dalje nije puna cena baldahina.
10:06
and now you only have 20 percent of the people with the bed nets,
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Sada imate samo 20% ljudi sa baldahinima,
10:08
you lose the health immunity, that's not great.
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gubite [nejasno], to nije dobro.
10:11
Second thing is, how about the use?
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Druga stvar, šta je sa omladinom?
10:13
Well, the good news is, people, if they have the bed nets,
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Pa, dobra stvar je da će ako imaju baldahine, ljudi
10:15
will use the bed nets regardless of how they got it.
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da ih koriste, bez obzira kako su do njih došli.
10:18
If they get it for free, they use it.
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Ako su ih dobili na poklon, koristiće ih.
10:20
If they have to pay for it, they use it.
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Ako moraju da plate, koristiće ih.
10:22
How about the long term?
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A dugoročno?
10:24
In the long term,
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Dugoročno,
10:26
people who got the free bed nets,
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ljudima koji su dobili besplatne mreže,
10:28
one year later, were offered the option
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godinu dana kasnije, ponuđena je opcija
10:30
to purchase a bed net at two dollars.
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da kupe mrežu za 2 dolara.
10:33
And people who got the free one
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I oni koji su dobili jednu na poklon
10:35
were actually more likely to purchase the second one
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češće su kupovali drugu
10:38
than people who didn't get a free one.
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od ljudi koji nisu dobili jednu na poklon.
10:40
So people do not get used to handouts; they get used to nets.
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Znači, ljudi se ne navikavaju na deljenje; navikavaju se na mreže.
10:43
Maybe we need to give them a little bit more credit.
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Možda bi trebalo da im ukažemo više poverenja.
10:48
So, that's for bed nets. So you will think, "That's great.
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To je što se mreža tiče. Pomislićete, "To je super.
10:50
You know how to immunize kids, you know how to give bed nets."
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Znate kako da vakcinišete, kako da date baldahine."
10:53
But what politicians need is a range of options.
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Ali političarima su potrebne različite opcije.
10:56
They need to know: Out of all the things I could do,
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Oni moraju da znaju: od svih stvari koje mogu da uradim,
10:59
what is the best way to achieve my goals?
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koji je najbolji način da ostvarim ciljeve?
11:02
So suppose your goal is to get kids into school.
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Pretpostavimo da vam je cilj da upišete decu u škole.
11:05
There are so many things you could do. You could pay for uniforms,
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Postoji toliko stvari koje možete učiniti. Možete da platite za uniforme,
11:08
you could eliminate fees, you could build latrines,
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možete da ukinete školarine, da izgradite toalete,
11:10
you could give girls sanitary pads, etc., etc.
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možete devojčicama da date uloške, itd.
11:13
So what's the best?
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Šta je najbolje?
11:15
Well, at some level, we think
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Pa, donekle mislimo
11:17
all of these things should work.
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da bi sve ove stvari trebalo da uspeju.
11:19
So, is that sufficient? If we think they should work intuitively,
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Da li je to dovoljno, ako mislimo da će to uspeti, intuitivno,
11:21
should we go for them?
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da li treba da probamo?
11:23
Well, in business, that's certainly not the way we would go about it.
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Pa, u poslovanju to sigurno nije način na koji bismo postupili.
11:27
Consider for example
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Razmislite na primer
11:29
transporting goods.
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o transportu robe.
11:31
Before the canals were invented
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Pre nego što su kanali izmišljeni
11:33
in Britain before the Industrial Revolution,
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u Britaniji, pre industrijske revolucije,
11:36
goods used to go on horse carts.
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roba se prevozila na konjskim zapregama.
11:38
And then canals were built,
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Onda su kanali izgrađeni,
11:40
and with the same horseman and the same horse,
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i sa istim konjem i konjanikom
11:43
you could carry ten times as much cargo.
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mogli ste da prevezete deset puta više tereta.
11:46
So should they have continued
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Da li je trebalo da nastave
11:48
to carry the goods on the horse carts, on the ground,
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da prenose robu na konjskim zapregama, putem,
11:51
that they would eventually get there?
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koje će nekada stići na cilj?
11:53
Well, if that had been the case,
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Pa, da je bilo tako,
11:55
there would have been no Industrial Revolution.
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ne bi došlo do industrijske revolucije.
11:57
So why shouldn't we do the same with social policy?
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Dakle, zašto ne bismo učinili isto sa socijalnom politikom?
12:00
In technology, we spend so much time
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U tehnologiji provodimo toliko vremena
12:02
experimenting, fine-tuning,
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eksperimentišući, podešavajući,
12:04
getting the absolute cheapest way to do something,
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nalazeći najjevtiniji način da nešto uradimo,
12:06
so why aren't we doing that with social policy?
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pa zašto ne radimo to i sa socijalnom politikom?
12:09
Well, with experiments, what you can do
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Pa, kod eksperimenata, ono što možete da uradite
12:11
is answer a simple question.
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je da odgovorite na jednostavno pitanje.
12:13
Suppose you have 100 dollars to spend
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Pretpostavimo da imate 100 dolara da potrošite
12:15
on various interventions.
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na različite intervencije.
12:17
How many extra years of education
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Koliko dodatnih godina obrazovanja
12:19
do you get for your hundred dollars?
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dobijate za sto dolara?
12:21
Now I'm going to show you
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Sada ću vam pokazati
12:23
what we get with various education interventions.
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šta dobijamo različitim intervencijama u obrazovanju.
12:27
So the first ones are if you want the usual suspects,
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Prve se odnose na uobičajene stvari,
12:29
hire teachers, school meals,
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unajmite nastavnike, školske obroke,
12:31
school uniforms, scholarships.
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uniforme, stipendije.
12:33
And that's not bad. For your hundred dollars,
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To nije loše. Za vaših sto dolara,
12:35
you get between one and three extra years of education.
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dobijate između jedne i tri dodatne godine obrazovanja.
12:39
Things that don't work so well is bribing parents,
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Stvari koje ne bi funkcionisale su podmićivanje roditelja,
12:41
just because so many kids are already going to school
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jer toliko mnogo dece već ide u školu,
12:44
that you end up spending a lot of money.
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završili biste trošeći puno para.
12:46
And here are the most surprising results.
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I evo rezultata koji najviše iznenađuju.
12:49
Tell people the benefits of education,
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Objasnite ljudima dobiti obrazovanja.
12:52
that's very cheap to do.
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To se može veoma jevtino uraditi.
12:54
So for every hundred dollars you spend doing that,
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Na svakih sto dolara koje potrošite na to,
12:57
you get 40 extra years of education.
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dobijate dodatnih 40 godina obrazovanja.
13:00
And, in places where there are worms,
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I u mestima gde ima glista,
13:02
intestinal worms,
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crevnih glista,
13:04
cure the kids of their worms.
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izlečite decu od njih.
13:06
And for every hundred dollars,
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I za svakih sto dolara,
13:08
you get almost 30 extra years of education.
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dobijate skoro 30 dodatnih godina obrazovanja.
13:11
So this is not your intuition,
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Znači to [nejasno] vaša intuicija.
13:13
this is not what people would have gone for,
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Ljudi ne bi ovo izabrali,
13:15
and yet, these are the programs that work.
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a ipak, ovo su programi koji uspevaju.
13:18
We need that kind of information, we need more of it,
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Potrebne su nam takve informacije. Potrebno nam ih je više.
13:20
and then we need to guide policy.
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I onda je potrebno da usmeravamo politiku.
13:24
So now, I started from the big problem, and I couldn't answer it.
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Znači, počela sam od velikog problema i nisam mogla da ga rešim.
13:27
And I cut it into smaller questions,
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Podelila sam ga na manja pitanja
13:30
and I have the answer to these smaller questions.
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i imam odgovore na ta manja pitanja.
13:32
And they are good, scientific, robust answers.
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To su dobri, naučni, robusni odgovori.
13:36
So let's go back to Haiti for a moment.
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Vratimo se na Haiti za trenutak.
13:39
In Haiti, about 200,000 people died --
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Tamo je skoro 200 000 ljudi umrlo.
13:43
actually, a bit more by the latest estimate.
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Zapravo, po poslednjoj proceni, nešto više.
13:45
And the response of the world was great:
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Odgovor sveta je bio odličan.
13:47
Two billion dollars got pledged just last month,
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Dve milijarde dolara je skupljeno samo prošlog meseca.
13:51
so that's about 10,000 dollars per death.
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To je oko 10 000 dolara po smrti.
13:53
That doesn't sound like that much when you think about it.
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Ne zvuči tako mnogo kad razmišljate o tome.
13:56
But if we were willing to spend 10,000 dollars
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Ali ako bismo bili voljni da potrošimo 10 000 dolara
13:59
for every child under five who dies,
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na svako dete mlađe od 5 godina koje umre,
14:02
that would be 90 billion per year
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to bi bilo 90 milijardi godišnje,
14:05
just for that problem.
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samo za taj problem.
14:07
And yet it doesn't happen.
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Ali to se ipak ne dešava.
14:09
So, why is that?
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Zašto je to tako?
14:11
Well, I think what part of the problem is that,
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Ja mislim da je deo problema u tome
14:13
in Haiti, although the problem is huge,
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što na Haitiju, iako je problem ogroman,
14:15
somehow we understand it, it's localized.
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nekako ga razumemo, lokalizovan je.
14:17
You give your money to Doctors Without Borders,
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Date novac Doktorima bez granica,
14:19
you give your money to Partners In Health,
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date novac Partnerima u zdravlju,
14:21
and they'll send in the doctors, and they'll send in the lumber,
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i oni će poslati doktore, poslaće stare stvari,
14:24
and they'll helicopter things out and in.
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poslaće helikopter da donosi i odnosi stvari.
14:27
And the problem of poverty is not like that.
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A problem siromaštva nije takav.
14:29
So, first, it's mostly invisible;
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Prvo, uglavnom je nevidljiv.
14:31
second, it's huge;
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Drugo, ogroman je.
14:33
and third, we don't know whether we are doing the right thing.
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I treće, ne znamo da li činimo ispravnu stvar.
14:36
There's no silver bullet.
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Ne postoji jedno najbolje rešenje.
14:38
You cannot helicopter people out of poverty.
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Ne možete helikopterom izneti ljude iz siromaštva.
14:40
And that's very frustrating.
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A to je veoma frustrirajuće.
14:42
But look what we just did today.
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Ali pogledajte šta smo upravo danas učinili.
14:45
I gave you three simple answers to three questions:
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Dala sam vam tri jednostavna odgovora na tri pitanja.
14:48
Give lentils to immunize people,
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Dajte sočivo za imunizaciju ljudi,
14:50
provide free bed nets, deworm children.
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obezbedite besplatne baldahine, izlečite decu.
14:52
With immunization or bed nets,
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Vakcinisanjem ili baldahinima
14:54
you can save a life for 300 dollars per life saved.
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možete spasiti jedan život za 300 dolara po spašenom životu.
14:57
With deworming, you can get
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Sa lečenjem od glista, dobijate
14:59
an extra year of education for three dollars.
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dodatnu godinu obrazovanja za tri dolara.
15:02
So we cannot eradicate poverty just yet,
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Ne možemo još uvek iskoreniti siromaštvo,
15:05
but we can get started.
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ali možemo početi.
15:07
And maybe we can get started small
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Možda možemo početi s malim
15:09
with things that we know are effective.
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stvarima za koje znamo da su učinkovite.
15:12
Here's an example of how this can be powerful.
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Evo primera koliko ovo može biti moćno.
15:14
Deworming.
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Lečenje od glista.
15:16
Worms have a little bit of a problem grabbing the headlines.
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Gliste imaju problem sa dospevanjem u naslove.
15:18
They are not beautiful and don't kill anybody.
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Nisu lepe i ne ubijaju nikoga.
15:21
And yet, when the young global leader in Davos
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Ali ipak, kada je mladi vođa u Davosu
15:23
showed the numbers I gave you,
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pokazao brojeve koje sam vam dala,
15:25
they started Deworm the World.
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započeo je "Deworm the World" ("Oslobodimo svet od glista").
15:27
And thanks to Deworm the World,
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I zahvaljujući tome,
15:29
and the effort of many country governments and foundations,
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i naporu mnogih vlada i fondacija,
15:31
20 million school-aged children got dewormed in 2009.
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20 miliona dece školskog uzrasta je izlečeno u 2009.
15:34
So this evidence is powerful.
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Ovaj dokaz je moćan.
15:36
It can prompt action.
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Može da ubrza akciju.
15:38
So we should get started now.
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Trebalo bi da počnemo odmah.
15:40
It's not going to be easy.
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To neće biti lako.
15:42
It's a very slow process.
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To je veoma spor proces.
15:44
You have to keep experimenting, and sometimes ideology
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Morate stalno da eksperimentišete, i ponekad ideologiju
15:46
has to be trumped by practicality.
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mora da pobedi praktičnost.
15:48
And sometimes what works somewhere doesn't work elsewhere.
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A ponekada nešto što uspeva na jednom mestu, ne uspeva na drugom.
15:51
So it's a slow process,
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Dakle to je spor proces,
15:53
but there is no other way.
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ali ne postoji drugi način.
15:55
These economics I'm proposing,
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Ova računica koju predlažem
15:57
it's like 20th century medicine.
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je kao medicina dvadesetog veka.
15:59
It's a slow, deliberative process
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To je spor, promišljen proces
16:01
of discovery.
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otkrivanja.
16:03
There is no miracle cure,
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Ne postoji čudotvorni lek,
16:05
but modern medicine is saving
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ali moderna medicina spašava
16:07
millions of lives every year,
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milione života svake godine,
16:09
and we can do the same thing.
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a mi možemo da učinimo isto.
16:13
And now, maybe, we can go back to the bigger question
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I sada se možda možemo vratiti većem pitanju
16:16
that I started with at the beginning.
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s kojim sam počela.
16:19
I cannot tell you
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Ne mogu da vam kažem
16:21
whether the aid we have spent in the past has made a difference,
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da li je pomoć koju smo dali u prošlosti značila nešto,
16:24
but can we come back here in 30 years
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ali možemo li se vratiti ovde za 30 godina
16:27
and say, "What we have done,
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i reći, "Ono što smo ovde uradili
16:30
it really prompted a change for the better."
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je stvarno ubrzalo promenu na bolje."
16:33
I believe we can and I hope we will.
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Verujem da možemo i nadam se da hoćemo.
16:35
Thank you.
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Hvala.
16:37
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
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