Esther Duflo: Social experiments to fight poverty

468,900 views ・ 2010-05-04

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翻译人员: Jason Hsiang 校对人员: Chunlei Chang
00:18
So here it is. You can check: I am short, I'm French,
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各位 你们可以看到 我很矮 我是法国人
00:20
I have a pretty strong French accent,
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我有很重的法国口音
00:22
so that's going to be clear in a moment.
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一会你们就会发现这一点
00:26
Maybe a sobering thought
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或者这很触目惊心
00:28
and something you all know about.
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你们都知道这些事
00:30
And I suspect many of you gave
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我想你们中的很多人
00:32
something to the people of Haiti this year.
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今年还给海地人捐献了东西
00:35
And there is something else
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但还有些别的事
00:37
I believe in the back of your mind
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我相信在你们脑中
00:39
you also know.
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你们也知道
00:41
That is, every day,
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就是每天都会有
00:43
25,000 children die
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25,000个孩子丧生
00:45
of entirely preventable causes.
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死于完全可以预防的原因
00:48
That's a Haiti earthquake every eight days.
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那是每八天的海地地震情况
00:51
And I suspect many of you probably gave something
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我想你们中的很多人也许
00:53
towards that problem as well,
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也想过这个问题
00:55
but somehow it doesn't happen
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但是
00:57
with the same intensity.
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每次灾难的破坏程度不太一样
00:59
So why is that?
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那么 这是为什么呢?
01:02
Well, here is a thought experiment for you.
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你们看一下这样一个实验
01:05
Imagine you have a few million dollars that you've raised --
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想象下 你募集了几百万美金
01:07
maybe you're a politician in a developing country
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你可能是某个发展中国家的官员
01:10
and you have a budget to spend. You want to spend it on the poor:
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你有个花钱的预算 你想把钱用在帮助贫困上
01:13
How do you go about it?
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你会怎样做?
01:16
Do you believe the people who tell you
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你会相信这样的人:
01:18
that all we need to do is to spend money?
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他们认为 我们所有该做的就是花钱
01:20
That we know how to eradicate poverty,
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我们知道如何消除贫困
01:23
we just need to do more?
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我们只是需要做更多
01:25
Or do you believe the people who tell you that
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还是会相信另外一些人:
01:27
aid is not going to help, on the contrary it might hurt,
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他们认为 援助没啥用,反而有坏处
01:30
it might exacerbate corruption, dependence, etc.?
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它可能助长腐败、依赖性等等
01:34
Or maybe you turn to the past.
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或者你会想想过去
01:36
After all, we have spent billions of dollars on aid.
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毕竟,我们花费了数十亿美金在援助上
01:39
Maybe you look at the past and see.
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你们看看过去
01:41
Has it done any good?
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看看援助是否做了些好事
01:43
And, sadly, we don't know.
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很遗憾,我们不知道
01:45
And worst of all, we will never know.
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最糟糕的是,我们永远也不会知道
01:49
And the reason is that -- take Africa for example.
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而原因是——拿非洲作为例子
01:51
Africans have already got a lot of aid.
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非洲人得到很多援助
01:53
These are the blue bars.
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就是这些蓝条
01:55
And the GDP in Africa is not making much progress.
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而非洲的GDP却没咋增长
01:58
Okay, fine. How do you know what
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好的, 你们如何得知
02:00
would have happened without the aid?
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没有援助会发生什么
02:02
Maybe it would have been much worse,
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或许会坏很多
02:05
or maybe it would have been better.
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或许会好很多
02:07
We have no idea. We don't know what the counterfactual is.
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我们不知道 不知道这样假设会如何
02:10
There's only one Africa.
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只有一个非洲
02:12
So what do you do?
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那么 你们会怎样做
02:14
To give the aid, and hope and pray that something comes out of it?
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给援助 然后希望、祈祷它会带了些好处
02:18
Or do you focus on your everyday life
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还是 仅仅关注自己的每日生活
02:21
and let the earthquake every eight days
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而让每八天一次的地震
02:23
continue to happen?
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继续发生?
02:25
The thing is, if we don't know
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要注意 如果我们不知道
02:27
whether we are doing any good,
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我们是否在做好事
02:29
we are not any better
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我们就甚至还不如
02:31
than the Medieval doctors and their leeches.
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中世纪的医生和那些寄生虫做得更好
02:34
Sometimes the patient gets better, sometimes the patient dies.
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有时候病人治好 有时候病人死去
02:37
Is it the leeches? Is it something else?
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这是因为寄生虫,还是因为别的什么?
02:40
We don't know.
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我们不知道
02:42
So here are some other questions.
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还要另外几个问题
02:44
They're smaller questions,
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这些问题很小
02:46
but they are not that small.
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但又不是那么小
02:48
Immunization, that's the cheapest way
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免疫 这是挽救孩子生命
02:51
to save a child's life.
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最便宜的方法
02:53
And the world has spent a lot of money on it:
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世界花了很多钱在免疫上
02:55
The GAVI and the Gates Foundations
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国际免疫预防联合会(GAVI)和盖茨基金会
02:57
are each pledging a lot of money towards it,
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都在免疫上投入很多钱
02:59
and developing countries themselves have been doing a lot of effort.
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发展国家自身也做了很多努力
03:02
And yet, every year
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然而,每年
03:04
at least 25 million children
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至少2500万儿童
03:06
do not get the immunization they should get.
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不能得到他们本应得到的免疫
03:09
So this is what you call a "last mile problem."
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这就是所谓的“最后一英里难题” (last mile problem 指人们能得到并正确使用质量好的药物)
03:12
The technology is there,
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我们有技术
03:14
the infrastructure is there,
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我们有基础设施
03:16
and yet it doesn't happen.
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但是,问题却没有得到解决
03:18
So you have your million.
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那么 当你有百万美金时
03:20
How do you use your million
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你怎样花钱
03:22
to solve this last mile problem?
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才能解决“最后一英里难题”
03:24
And here's another question:
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还有另外一个问题
03:26
Malaria. Malaria kills almost
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疟疾 疟疾每年夺走
03:29
900,000 people every year,
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90万人的生命
03:32
most of them in Sub-Saharan Africa,
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大多数死者在撒哈拉以南的非洲
03:34
most of them under five.
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大多数年龄小于5岁
03:36
In fact, that is the leading cause of under-five mortality.
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事实上 疟疾是5岁下儿童的最主要死因
03:39
We already know how to kill malaria,
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我们已经知道如何治愈疟疾
03:42
but some people come to you and say,
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但有些人找到你 并对你说
03:44
"You have your millions. How about bed nets?"
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“你有几百万,不如买蚊帐吧”
03:47
Bed nets are very cheap.
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蚊帐很便宜
03:49
For 10 dollars, you can manufacture and ship
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只要10美元,你就能制造并运输
03:52
an insecticide treated bed net
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一个经过杀虫剂处理的蚊帐
03:54
and you can teach someone to use them.
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而且,你能教人们使用蚊帐
03:56
And, not only do they protect the people who sleep under them,
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此外,蚊帐不仅能保护谁在蚊帐里的人
03:59
but they have these great contagion benefits.
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而且还有巨大的防传染功效
04:01
If half of a community sleeps under a net,
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如果社区里一半的人睡在蚊帐里
04:04
the other half also benefits
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另一半也能受惠
04:06
because the contagion of the disease spread.
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因为疾病能传染、扩散
04:09
And yet, only a quarter of kids at risk sleep under a net.
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然而,只有四分之一面临疟疾风险的孩子睡在蚊帐里
04:12
Societies should be willing to go out
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社会应该愿意行动
04:14
and subsidize the net, give them for free,
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资助购买蚊帐,并且免费捐赠
04:16
or, for that matter, pay people to use them
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或者,在这个问题上,补贴那些使用蚊帐的人
04:18
because of those contagion benefits.
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因为蚊帐的防传染功效
04:20
"Not so fast," say other people.
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而另外一些人说 “别这么快”
04:22
"If you give the nets for free,
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“如果你免费提供蚊帐
04:24
people are not going to value them.
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人们不会珍惜蚊帐
04:26
They're not going to use them,
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他们不会去使用蚊帐
04:28
or at least they're not going to use them as bed nets,
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或者至少他们不会把蚊帐当蚊帐使用
04:30
maybe as fishing nets."
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而可能是当作鱼网 (蚊帐为bed net,net的意思是”网“)
04:32
So, what do you do?
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那么,你会怎样做?
04:34
Do you give the nets for free to maximize coverage,
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是免费提供蚊帐,以求最大限度的蚊帐覆盖率?
04:36
or do you make people pay
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还是要人们为蚊帐买单
04:38
in order to make sure that they really value them?
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以使他们认识到蚊帐的价值?
04:40
How do you know?
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你怎么知道?
04:42
And a third question: Education.
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第三个问题是 教育
04:44
Maybe that's the solution, maybe we should send kids to school.
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或许这才是解决之道 或许我们应该送孩子去上学
04:46
But how do you do that?
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但是你会怎么去做?
04:48
Do you hire teachers? Do you build more schools?
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你会聘请更多教师? 你会建更多校舍?
04:50
Do you provide school lunch?
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你会提供学校午餐吗?
04:52
How do you know?
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你怎么知道哪种方法更好?
04:54
So here is the thing.
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这就是问题所在。
04:56
I cannot answer the big question,
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我无法回答那个大问题
04:58
whether aid did any good or not.
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即 援助是好是坏
05:00
But these three questions, I can answer them.
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但是,我能回答这三个小问题
05:04
It's not the Middle Ages anymore,
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现在不再是中世纪
05:06
it's the 21st century.
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而是二十一世纪
05:08
And in the 20th century,
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在二十世纪里
05:10
randomized, controlled trials
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随机的、可控的试验
05:12
have revolutionized medicine
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已经将医药革命了
05:14
by allowing us to distinguish
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因为它让我们能够区分
05:16
between drugs that work
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有效的药物
05:18
and drugs that don't work.
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和无用的药物
05:20
And you can do the same
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现在 你可以采用同样的方式:
05:22
randomized, controlled trial for social policy.
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针对社会政策的 随机的、可控的试验
05:25
You can put social innovation to the same
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你可以对社会革新施以同样的
05:27
rigorous, scientific tests
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精确而又科学的测试
05:29
that we use for drugs.
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就像我们为药物所做的那样
05:31
And in this way, you can take the guesswork
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以这种方式, 你可以把推测的成分
05:34
out of policy-making
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从政策制定中区分出来
05:36
by knowing what works,
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因为你知道了什么可行
05:38
what doesn't work and why.
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什么不可行 为什么是这样
05:40
And I'll give you some examples with those three questions.
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我会针对这三个问题举一些例子
05:44
So I start with immunization.
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首先从免疫开始
05:46
Here's Udaipur District, Rajasthan. Beautiful.
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这是印度拉贾斯坦邦的乌代布尔区 ,非常美丽
05:49
Well, when I started working there,
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当我开始在那工作时
05:51
about one percent of children
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约1%的儿童
05:53
were fully immunized.
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得到了完全免疫
05:55
That's bad, but there are places like that.
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这很糟糕 但是还有很多地方好不到哪去
05:58
Now, it's not because the vaccines are not there --
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现在,并不是因为那里没有疫苗
06:00
they are there and they are free --
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疫苗在那,而且是免费的
06:02
and it's not because parents do not care about their kids.
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也不因为父母不关心孩子
06:05
The same child that is not immunized against measles,
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一个没有免疫过麻疹的孩子
06:08
if they do get measles, parents will spend
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一旦感染麻疹 父母将要花费
06:10
thousands of rupees to help them.
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数千卢用于治疗
06:12
So you get these empty village subcenters
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现在 你看到这些空荡荡的乡村中心
06:14
and crowded hospitals.
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和拥挤的医院
06:16
So what is the problem?
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那么问题在哪?
06:18
Well, part of the problem, surely, is people do not fully understand.
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部分问题当然是人们不太懂
06:21
After all, in this country as well,
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毕竟在这个国家
06:23
all sorts of myths and misconceptions
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有各种关于疟疾的
06:25
go around immunization.
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传说和误解.
06:28
So if that's the case, that's difficult,
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如果这是问题所在, 很麻烦
06:30
because persuasion is really difficult.
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因为很难说服人们.
06:33
But maybe there is another problem as well.
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但是 或许还有另外一个问题.
06:35
It's going from intention to action.
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人们开始从关注它到采取行动
06:38
Imagine you are a mother
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想象下你是位母亲
06:40
in Udaipur District, Rajasthan.
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就生活在拉贾斯坦邦的乌代布尔区
06:42
You have to walk a few kilometers to get your kids immunized.
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你不得不不行几公里才能让孩子得到免疫
06:45
And maybe when you get there, what you find is this:
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或许当你到达免疫地点时 你会发现
06:47
The subcenter is closed. Ao you have to come back,
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副中心关门了 那么你就不得不打道回府
06:49
and you are so busy and you have so many other things to do,
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如果你很忙 你有很多事要做
06:52
you will always tend to postpone and postpone,
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你将一直拖延拖延
06:54
and eventually it gets too late.
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直到有一天已经太迟了.
06:56
Well, if that's the problem, then that's much easier.
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如果这是问题所在的话 倒是简单很多
06:59
Because A, we can make it easy,
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因为: A 我们能让免疫更容易
07:02
and B, we can maybe
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B 我们或许
07:04
give people a reason to act today,
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能给人们一个今天就行动的理由
07:06
rather than wait till tomorrow.
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而不是等到明天.
07:08
So these are simple ideas, but we didn't know.
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这是很简单的想法 但过去我们不知道.
07:10
So let's try them.
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那么让我们将这些想法付诸行动.
07:12
So what we did is we did a randomized, controlled trial
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我们过去的是 随机的、可控的试验
07:15
in 134 villages in Udaipur Districts.
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在拉贾斯坦邦的乌代布尔区的134个村庄
07:17
So the blue dots
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这些蓝点
07:19
are selected randomly.
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是随机选定的.
07:21
We made it easy -- I'll tell you how in a moment.
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我们的做法很简单 一会我就告诉你们.
07:24
In the red dots, we made it easy
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在红点处 我们简单地
07:26
and gave people a reason to act now.
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告诉人们一个今天就行动的理由。
07:28
The white dots are comparisons, nothing changed.
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白点处是作为对比,什么也没变
07:31
So we make it easy by organizing
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我们简单地组织
07:33
this monthly camp where people can
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每月营地,在这里人们可以
07:35
get their kids immunized.
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让孩子得到免疫
07:37
And then you make it easy
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然后你就简单地
07:39
and give a reason to act now
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告诉人们一个今天就行动的理由
07:41
by adding a kilo of lentils for each immunization.
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通过给每次免疫一公斤扁豆的补助
07:44
Now, a kilo of lentils is tiny.
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现在 一公斤扁豆真是微不足道。
07:47
It's never going to convince anybody
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你永远也不会说服任何人
07:49
to do something that they don't want to do.
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去做他们不想做的事。
07:51
On the other hand, if your problem is you tend to postpone,
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另一方面 如果你的问题是你老是拖延,
07:54
then it might give you a reason to act today
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那就给你个今天就行动的理由
07:56
rather than later.
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而不是以后再去做
07:58
So what do we find?
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那么我们发现了什么?
08:00
Well, beforehand, everything is the same.
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起初 一切如故
08:02
That's the beauty of randomization.
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这就是随机试验的好处
08:04
Afterwards,
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后来
08:06
the camp -- just having the camp --
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这些营地 仅仅是每月营地
08:08
increases immunization from six percent to 17 percent.
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将免疫率从6%增长到17%
08:10
That's full immunization.
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是指完全免疫
08:12
That's not bad, that's a good improvement.
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还不错,很大的进步
08:14
Add the lentils and you reach to 38 percent.
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加了扁豆后 数字达到了38%
08:17
So here you've got your answer.
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现在你就知道答案了
08:19
Make it easy and give a kilo of lentils,
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简单点 给一公斤扁豆
08:21
you multiply immunization rate by six.
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就将免疫率乘以6
08:24
Now, you might say, "Well, but it's not sustainable.
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现在 你会说 ”很好,可这是不可持续的
08:26
We cannot keep giving lentils to people."
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我们不能总是给扁豆”
08:28
Well, it turns out it's wrong economics,
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结果是 这是错误的经济学
08:30
because it is cheaper
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因为给扁豆
08:32
to give lentils than not to give them.
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比不给扁豆要便宜
08:34
Since you have to pay for the nurse anyway,
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既然 你总是要为护士付费
08:36
the cost per immunization
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每次免疫费用
08:38
ends up being cheaper if you give incentives than if you don't.
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最终是给激励时比不给时要便宜
08:42
How about bed nets?
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蚊帐又该如何?
08:44
Should you give them for free, or should you ask people to pay for them?
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你是免费发放 还是让人们付费?
08:47
So the answer hinges
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答案取决于
08:49
on the answer to three simple questions.
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三个简单问题的答案
08:51
One is: If people must pay for a bed net,
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第一个问题是如果人们必须为蚊帐付费
08:54
are they going to purchase them?
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他们还会买吗?
08:56
The second one is:
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第二个问题是
08:58
If I give bed nets for free,
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如果蚊帐是免费的
09:00
are people going to use them?
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人们还会用吗?
09:02
And the third one is:
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第三个问题是
09:04
Do free bed nets discourage future purchase?
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免费蚊帐会导致日后不再购买蚊帐吗?
09:06
The third one is important
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第三个问题很重要
09:08
because if we think people get used to handouts,
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因为 如果我们认为人们习惯了救济后
09:11
it might destroy markets to distribute free bed nets.
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将会破坏发放免费蚊帐的市场
09:14
Now this is a debate that has generated
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现在 这个争论已经
09:16
a lot of emotion and angry rhetoric.
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带来了很多感情和愤怒的言辞。
09:19
It's more ideological than practical,
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这更理想主义而非实用主义,
09:21
but it turns out it's an easy question.
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但又回答了一个简单的问题。
09:23
We can know the answer to this question.
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我们可以知道问题的答案
09:25
We can just run an experiment.
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我们只要做下试验
09:27
And many experiments have been run, and they all have the same results,
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很多试验 都有相同的结果
09:29
so I'm just going to talk to you about one.
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接下来 我会给你们讲一个
09:32
And this one that was in Kenya,
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这个试验是在肯尼亚做的
09:34
they went around and distributed to people
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他们到处走动 分发给村民
09:36
vouchers, discount vouchers.
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优惠券 折扣券
09:38
So people with their voucher
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然后 人们用优惠券
09:40
could get the bed net in the local pharmacy.
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可以在当地的要点买到蚊帐
09:42
And some people get 100 percent discount,
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有些人得到100%折扣
09:45
and some people get 20 percent discounts,
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有些是20%折扣
09:47
and some people get 50 percent discount, etc.
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有些事50%折扣 等等
09:50
And now we can see what happens.
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现在我们可以看看发生了什么
09:52
So, how about the purchasing?
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若是要购买会如何
09:54
Well, what you can see is that
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你可以看到
09:56
when people have to pay for their bed nets,
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当人们不得不为蚊帐付费时
09:58
the coverage rate really falls down a lot.
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蚊帐覆盖率大幅下降
10:01
So even with partial subsidy,
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即使有部分补助-
10:03
three dollars is still not the full cost of a bed net,
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3美元依然不是蚊帐的完全花费
10:06
and now you only have 20 percent of the people with the bed nets,
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现在你只有20%的人拥有蚊帐
10:08
you lose the health immunity, that's not great.
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你失去了[覆盖率] 那样不好
10:11
Second thing is, how about the use?
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第二件事是 年轻人会如何
10:13
Well, the good news is, people, if they have the bed nets,
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好消息是 当人们拥有蚊帐时
10:15
will use the bed nets regardless of how they got it.
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他们会使用蚊帐 不管蚊帐是如何得到的
10:18
If they get it for free, they use it.
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他们免费得到蚊帐 会使用
10:20
If they have to pay for it, they use it.
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他们付费得到蚊帐 也会使用
10:22
How about the long term?
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长期情况如何呢?
10:24
In the long term,
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长远看来
10:26
people who got the free bed nets,
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得到免费蚊帐的人们
10:28
one year later, were offered the option
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一年后 面临花两美元
10:30
to purchase a bed net at two dollars.
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买一个蚊帐的选择
10:33
And people who got the free one
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免费获得蚊帐的人们
10:35
were actually more likely to purchase the second one
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实际上更可能买第二个蚊帐
10:38
than people who didn't get a free one.
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相比没得到免费蚊帐的人而言
10:40
So people do not get used to handouts; they get used to nets.
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所以 人们没有习惯于救济 而是习惯于蚊帐!
10:43
Maybe we need to give them a little bit more credit.
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或许我们应该更相信他们
10:48
So, that's for bed nets. So you will think, "That's great.
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那些就是关于蚊帐的 你会想“太好了
10:50
You know how to immunize kids, you know how to give bed nets."
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你知道怎样免疫 你知道怎样发放蚊帐”
10:53
But what politicians need is a range of options.
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但是政客们需要的是一组选择
10:56
They need to know: Out of all the things I could do,
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他们需要知道: 在所有这些我能做的事当中
10:59
what is the best way to achieve my goals?
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哪一个是能最好地实现目标的方式?
11:02
So suppose your goal is to get kids into school.
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假如你的目标是让孩子们上学
11:05
There are so many things you could do. You could pay for uniforms,
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有这么多事可做 你可以为制服买单
11:08
you could eliminate fees, you could build latrines,
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你可以降低费用 你可以建造公厕
11:10
you could give girls sanitary pads, etc., etc.
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你可以给女孩提供卫生垫 等等
11:13
So what's the best?
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那么最好的是什么?
11:15
Well, at some level, we think
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某种程度上而言 我们认为
11:17
all of these things should work.
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所有这些事都该做
11:19
So, is that sufficient? If we think they should work intuitively,
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那么 这些足够吗? 比如, 假如我们凭直觉认为这些应该有效
11:21
should we go for them?
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我们应该去做这些事吗?
11:23
Well, in business, that's certainly not the way we would go about it.
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在商业里 这显然不是我们做事的方式
11:27
Consider for example
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考虑下这个例子
11:29
transporting goods.
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运输货物
11:31
Before the canals were invented
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在运河被发明之前
11:33
in Britain before the Industrial Revolution,
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英国在工业革命前
11:36
goods used to go on horse carts.
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货物是通过马车运输
11:38
And then canals were built,
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接着运河被修建后
11:40
and with the same horseman and the same horse,
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用同样的马夫和同样的马匹
11:43
you could carry ten times as much cargo.
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你可以运输十倍于之前的货物
11:46
So should they have continued
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那么 他们应该继续
11:48
to carry the goods on the horse carts, on the ground,
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用马车在路上运输货物吗?
11:51
that they would eventually get there?
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反正他们最终总是能到达目的地
11:53
Well, if that had been the case,
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如果 现实是这样
11:55
there would have been no Industrial Revolution.
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就不会发生工业革命
11:57
So why shouldn't we do the same with social policy?
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那么 为什么我们不应以同样方式来制定社会政策?
12:00
In technology, we spend so much time
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在科技领域 我们花费了大量时间
12:02
experimenting, fine-tuning,
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做实验 调节
12:04
getting the absolute cheapest way to do something,
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获得绝对最便宜的方式去做某事
12:06
so why aren't we doing that with social policy?
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那么 为什么我们没有以同样方式来制定社会政策?
12:09
Well, with experiments, what you can do
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通过做实验 你可以做到的是
12:11
is answer a simple question.
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回答一个简单的问题
12:13
Suppose you have 100 dollars to spend
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假如你有100美元
12:15
on various interventions.
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可以用于各种干预措施
12:17
How many extra years of education
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用你的几百美元
12:19
do you get for your hundred dollars?
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可以得到多少年额外的教育?
12:21
Now I'm going to show you
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现在我会告诉你
12:23
what we get with various education interventions.
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各种教育干预能带来什么
12:27
So the first ones are if you want the usual suspects,
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最先的答案 是一些普遍的假设:
12:29
hire teachers, school meals,
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请老师 学校午餐
12:31
school uniforms, scholarships.
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学校制服 奖学金
12:33
And that's not bad. For your hundred dollars,
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这都不错 用你的一百美金
12:35
you get between one and three extra years of education.
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你可以得到一到三年的额外教育
12:39
Things that don't work so well is bribing parents,
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不太好的事是贿赂家长
12:41
just because so many kids are already going to school
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仅仅因为很多孩子已经开始上学
12:44
that you end up spending a lot of money.
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你终止了花费大量金钱
12:46
And here are the most surprising results.
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这儿是最让人惊讶的结果
12:49
Tell people the benefits of education,
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告诉人们教育的益处
12:52
that's very cheap to do.
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这佯做很便宜
12:54
So for every hundred dollars you spend doing that,
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你花费在这件事的每一百美元
12:57
you get 40 extra years of education.
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你将得到40年额外教育
13:00
And, in places where there are worms,
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在那些有寄生虫的地方
13:02
intestinal worms,
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蛔虫
13:04
cure the kids of their worms.
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治疗有蛔虫的小孩
13:06
And for every hundred dollars,
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用每一百美元
13:08
you get almost 30 extra years of education.
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你将得到几乎30年的额外教育
13:11
So this is not your intuition,
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这不复合你的直觉
13:13
this is not what people would have gone for,
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这不是人们希望的
13:15
and yet, these are the programs that work.
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然而 这些项目很有效
13:18
We need that kind of information, we need more of it,
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我们需要那样的信息 我们需要更多
13:20
and then we need to guide policy.
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然后 我们需要引导政策
13:24
So now, I started from the big problem, and I couldn't answer it.
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好的 我是从那个大问题开始的 我不能回答它
13:27
And I cut it into smaller questions,
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然后 我将它分为几个小问题
13:30
and I have the answer to these smaller questions.
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而我能回答这些小问题
13:32
And they are good, scientific, robust answers.
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这些回答是很好的、科学的、有力的回答
13:36
So let's go back to Haiti for a moment.
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我们回过头来谈谈海地
13:39
In Haiti, about 200,000 people died --
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在海地 大约20万人丧身
13:43
actually, a bit more by the latest estimate.
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事实上 最新的估计比这个数字还要多
13:45
And the response of the world was great:
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世界的反应时强烈的
13:47
Two billion dollars got pledged just last month,
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过去一个月 募集了20亿美元
13:51
so that's about 10,000 dollars per death.
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大约是 每一个死亡1万美元
13:53
That doesn't sound like that much when you think about it.
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你仔细想想 其实这并不像听起来那么多
13:56
But if we were willing to spend 10,000 dollars
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但是 如果我们愿意为每个去世的小于5岁的孩子
13:59
for every child under five who dies,
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花费1万美元
14:02
that would be 90 billion per year
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那将是每年900美元
14:05
just for that problem.
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仅仅是为那个问题
14:07
And yet it doesn't happen.
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然而 这并没有发生
14:09
So, why is that?
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那 这是为什么呢?
14:11
Well, I think what part of the problem is that,
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我认为部分问题在于
14:13
in Haiti, although the problem is huge,
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尽管海地的问题很大
14:15
somehow we understand it, it's localized.
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可是我们总能懂一些 我们就能定位问题
14:17
You give your money to Doctors Without Borders,
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你捐钱给无国界医生组织
14:19
you give your money to Partners In Health,
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你捐钱给健康伙伴组织(Partners in Health)
14:21
and they'll send in the doctors, and they'll send in the lumber,
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他们会送医生过去 他们会送物品过去
14:24
and they'll helicopter things out and in.
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他们会用直升飞机运东西进进出出
14:27
And the problem of poverty is not like that.
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但是贫困的问题并非如此
14:29
So, first, it's mostly invisible;
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首先 它通常是看不见的
14:31
second, it's huge;
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其次 它是很严重的
14:33
and third, we don't know whether we are doing the right thing.
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最后 我们不清楚我们所做的是否正确
14:36
There's no silver bullet.
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没有任何绝招可用
14:38
You cannot helicopter people out of poverty.
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你不能用直升飞机将人们从贫困中运出
14:40
And that's very frustrating.
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这真是让人沮丧
14:42
But look what we just did today.
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但是看看我们今天所做的
14:45
I gave you three simple answers to three questions:
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我给你们三个问题的三个简单答案
14:48
Give lentils to immunize people,
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让免疫[更便利]
14:50
provide free bed nets, deworm children.
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提供免费蚊帐 给孩子打蛔虫
14:52
With immunization or bed nets,
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通过免疫或者蚊帐
14:54
you can save a life for 300 dollars per life saved.
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你可以用300美元拯救一条生命
14:57
With deworming, you can get
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通过打蛔虫 你可以用300美元
14:59
an extra year of education for three dollars.
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得到一年额外的教育
15:02
So we cannot eradicate poverty just yet,
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我们不能立刻消除贫困
15:05
but we can get started.
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但是我们可以开始行动
15:07
And maybe we can get started small
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或许我们能以那些
15:09
with things that we know are effective.
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我们知道是有效的方式开始
15:12
Here's an example of how this can be powerful.
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这个例子告诉我们这样做多么强有力
15:14
Deworming.
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打蛔虫
15:16
Worms have a little bit of a problem grabbing the headlines.
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蛔虫不会引起新闻头条的一丝主义
15:18
They are not beautiful and don't kill anybody.
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他们不漂亮 他们不杀死人
15:21
And yet, when the young global leader in Davos
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然而 当年轻的全球领袖 在达沃斯
15:23
showed the numbers I gave you,
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展示这些我告诉你们的数字时
15:25
they started Deworm the World.
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他们开始了”世界除虫“行动
15:27
And thanks to Deworm the World,
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幸亏有这个世界除虫行动
15:29
and the effort of many country governments and foundations,
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以及很多国家政府和基金会的努力
15:31
20 million school-aged children got dewormed in 2009.
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2009年有2千万学龄儿童得到除虫
15:34
So this evidence is powerful.
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这个证据是强有力的
15:36
It can prompt action.
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它能推动行动
15:38
So we should get started now.
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我们现在就应开始行动
15:40
It's not going to be easy.
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现在 这不是件容易的事
15:42
It's a very slow process.
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这是很漫长的过程
15:44
You have to keep experimenting, and sometimes ideology
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你必须坚持试验 有时候
15:46
has to be trumped by practicality.
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必须用实用性来鼓吹想法
15:48
And sometimes what works somewhere doesn't work elsewhere.
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有时候 在此地有效的方式在彼处失效
15:51
So it's a slow process,
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这是很漫长的过程
15:53
but there is no other way.
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但是有其他放肆
15:55
These economics I'm proposing,
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我所建议的经济学
15:57
it's like 20th century medicine.
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就像20实际的药物
15:59
It's a slow, deliberative process
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这是一个漫长,很慎重
16:01
of discovery.
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发现过程
16:03
There is no miracle cure,
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没有魔法疗法
16:05
but modern medicine is saving
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但是现代药物
16:07
millions of lives every year,
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每年都在挽救数以百万计的生命
16:09
and we can do the same thing.
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而我们可以做到同样的事
16:13
And now, maybe, we can go back to the bigger question
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现在 或许我们能回归到那个
16:16
that I started with at the beginning.
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我一开始就提出的大问题
16:19
I cannot tell you
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我不能告诉你
16:21
whether the aid we have spent in the past has made a difference,
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过去的援助花费是否起了作用
16:24
but can we come back here in 30 years
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但是 30年后我们可以回到这里
16:27
and say, "What we have done,
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然后说 ”我们所做的一切
16:30
it really prompted a change for the better."
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真的促进了事情往好的方向改变“
16:33
I believe we can and I hope we will.
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我相信我们可以做到 我希望我们能够做到
16:35
Thank you.
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谢谢
16:37
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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