3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree

Translator: Aida Zečkanović Reviewer: Nika Kotnik

So I'm a professional poker player,

Sem profesionalna igralka pokra

and today, I want to talk about three things that the game has taught me

in danes bom govorila o treh spoznanjih, o odločanju, ki me jih je naučil poker

around decision-making that I find apply to everyday life.

in za katere menim, da jih lahko uporabimo v vsakdanjem življenju.

Now the first of these things is about luck.

Prvo spoznananje je o sreči.

Now, like poker, life is also a game of skill and luck,

Kot poker, je tudi življenje igra spretnosti in sreče.

and when it comes to the biggest things we care about --

Številne stvari, ki so za nas najbolj pomembne,

health, wealth and relationships --

zdravje, premoženje in odnosi,

these outcomes don't only depend on the quality of our decision-making,

niso odvisne le od kvalitetnega odločanja,

but also the roll of life's dice.

pač pa tudi od sreče.

For example, we can be perfectly health-conscious

Lahko zavedno skrbimo za svoje zdravje,

and still get unlucky with something like cancer.

a nas kljub temu doleti nesreča, na primer rak.

Or we can smoke 20 a day and live to a ripe old age,

Ali pa pokadimo 20 cigaret na dan in vseeno doživimo visoko starost.

and this kind of ambiguity can make it hard for us to know

Zaradi te dvoumnosti lahko včasih težko ocenimo

how good our strategies are, sometimes,

kako dobre so naše strategije,

especially when we're experiencing a lot of success.

še zlasti ko doživljamo velike uspehe.

For example, back in 2010,

Leta 2010 sem na primer

I won a really big poker tournament known as the European Poker Tour.

zmagala na zelo pomembnem turnirju, Evropski poker turneji.

And because I'd only been playing full-time for about a year,

Ker sem takrat poker profesionalno igrala šele eno leto,

when I won, I assumed I must be rather brilliant.

sem sklepala, da sem verjetno genialna.

In fact, I thought I was so brilliant

Bila sem tako sigurna v svojo genialnost,

that I not only got rather lazy with studying the game,

da sem ne le nehala marljivo preučevati igro,

but I also got more risky,

pač pa sem začela več tvegati

started playing in the biggest tournaments I could

in igrati na največjih turnirjih,

against the very best in the world.

proti najbolšim igralcem na svetu.

And then my profit graph went from a thing of beauty

In tako se je graf mojega zaslužka spremenil iz nečesa čudovitega,

to something kind of sad,

v nekaj precej žalostnega,

with this worrying downhill trend for a long time,

in ta zaskrbljujoč trend upadanja se je nadaljeval

until I finally realized that I was overestimating my skill level,

dokler nisem ugotovila, da precenjujem svoje sposobnosti

and got my act together.

in se vzela v roke.

And this kind of reminds me of what we've been seeing

To me spominja na dogajanje

in the cryptocurrency space, at least in 2017,

v svetu kriptovalut, no, vsaj v letu 2017,

where the only thing that's been going up faster than the markets themselves

ko je bilo edino, kar je rastlo hitreje kot sam trg,

is the number of "senior investment specialists"

število "višjih investicijskih specialistov,"

who have been appearing out of nowhere.

ki so se pojavili od nikoder.

Now I'm not saying it's not possible to have a strategic edge,

Ne trdim, da je nemogoče imeti strateško prednost,

but at the same time, it's very easy to feel like a genius

vendar pa se zlahka počutimo kot genialci

when you're in a market that's going up so fast

na trgu, ki raste tako hitro,

that even the worst strategies are making a profit.

da so celo najslabše strategije profitabilne.

So when we're experiencing success,

Ko doživimo uspeh, je zato pomembno,

it's important to take a moment to really ask ourselves

da se vprašamo

how much of it is truly down to us,

kolikšna zasluga je dejansko naša.

because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning.

Kajti naš ego zelo rad podceni vlogo sreče pri zmagi.

Now, a second thing poker taught me

Druga stvar, ki sem se jo naučila pri pokru,

is the importance of quantifying my thinking.

je pomembnost kvantificiranja svojega razmišljanja.

When you're playing, you can't just get away with going,

Med igro ni dovolj, da razmišljamo:

"Eh, they're probably bluffing."

"Eh, verjetno blefirajo."

That's just going to lose you a bunch of money,

Na ta način bomo le izgubili veliko denarja,

because poker is a game of probabilities and precision,

kajti poker je igra verjetnosti in natančnosti.

and so you have to train yourself to think in numbers.

Moramo se izuriti, da razmišljamo v številkah.

So now, whenever I catch myself

Zato sedaj, ko se ujamem,

thinking vaguely about something really important, like,

da le nejasno razmišljam o čem pomembnem, kot denimo:

"It's unlikely I'll forget what I want to say in my TED Talk,"

"Malo verjetno je, da bi pozabila kaj hočem povedati v svojem TED govoru,"

I now try to estimate it numerically.

poskušam to oceniti številčno.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Trust me, it helps a lot with the planning process.

Verjemite mi, to zelo pomaga pri načrtovanju.

And the thing is, almost anything that could possibly happen here today,

Stvar je v tem, da skoraj vse, kar bi se lahko tu zgodilo danes,

or at any point in the future,

ali kadarkoli v prihodnosti,

can also be expressed as a probability, too.

lahko izrazimo tudi kot verjetnost.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So now I also try to speak in numbers as well.

Zato sedaj poskušam tudi med pogovorom uporabljati številke.

So if someone asks me,

Torej če me nekdo vpraša:

"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going to come along to that thing tonight?"

"Hej Liv, prideš na tisto prireditev danes zvečer?"

instead of just saying to them, "Yeah, probably,"

jim bom namesto: "Ja, verjetno,"

I actually give them my best estimate --

podala svojo najboljšo oceno-

say, 60 percent.

recimo 60%.

Because -- I know that sounds a little odd --

Vem, da to zveni malo čudno.

but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter

A naredila sem anketo na Twitter-ju

of what people understand the word "probably" to mean,

o tem, kaj ljudje razumejo kot "verjetno"

and this was the spread of answers.

in tole je razpon rezultatov.

Enormous!

Ogromen je!

So apparently, it's absolutely useless

Očitno je ta beseda čisto neuporabna

at actually conveying any real information.

za posredovanje kakršnih koli konkretnih informacij.

So if you guys catch yourselves using these vague words,

Če se ujamete, da uporabljate te nejasne besede,

like "probably" or "sometimes,"

kot so "verjetno" ali "včasih,"

try, instead, using numbers, because when we speak in numbers,

poskusite raje uporabiti številke. Kajti ko govorimo v številkah,

we know what lands in the other person's brain.

vemo, kako bo to druga oseba razumela.

Now, the third thing I want to touch on today is intuition.

Treta stvar, ki bi se je rada dotaknila danes, je intuicija.

How often have you seen these kinds of inspirational memes

Kako pogosto vidite takšne inspirativne citate

in your Facebook feed?

na svoji Facebookovi časovnici?

[Always trust your gut feeling and never second-guess.]

[Vedno verjemi svojemu nagonu in nikoli ne dvomi.]

They're nice, right?

So prijetni, ne?

It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."

Ja, čudoviti so. "Zaupaj svoji duši."

Well, they're terrible advice.

No, grozni nasveti so!

These are some of the best poker players in the world right now.

Tole so nekateri izmed najboljših igralcev pokra na svetu, trenutno.

Do they look like people who live purely off feelings and intuitions?

Ali izgledajo kot ljudje, ki se zanašajo samo na občutke in intuicijo?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Look at them!

Samo poglejte jih!

Obviously, these guys are about slow, careful analysis,

Očitno je, da imajo ti fantje raje počasno, previdno analizo,

and that's because the game has outgrown the days

to pa zato, ker je igra prerasla dni,

where pure street smarts and people-reading

ko si lahko z ulično pretkanostjo in branjem ljudi,

can get you to the top.

prišel do vrha.

And that's because our intuitions aren't nearly as perfect

Naša intuicija namreč ni niti približno tako nezmotljiva,

as we'd like to believe.

kot bi si želeli.

I mean, it'd be great, whenever we're in a tough spot,

Bilo bi super, če bi se nam, ko bi se znašli v zagati,

to just have an answer appear to us from some magical source of inspiration.

rešitev kar čudežno utrnila iz nekega magičnega vira navdiha.

But in reality, our gut is extremely vulnerable

Ampak naši nagoni so močno podvrženi

to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases.

našim željam in predsodkom.

So then, what is our gut good for?

Zakaj torej so naši instinkti dobri?

Well, all the studies I've read

No, vse študije, ki sem jih prebrala

conclude that it's best-suited for everyday things

kažejo, da jih je najbolje uporabljati za vsakdanje reči,

that we have lots and lots of experience in,

s katerimi imamo veliko izkušenj.

like how we just know that our friend is mad at us

Recimo, ko začutimo, da je naš prijatelj jezen na nas,

before we've even said anything to them,

preden z njim spregovorimo eno samo besedo.

or whether we can fit our car into a tight parking spot.

Ali pa ko ocenjujemo, če bomo avto spravili v mali parkirni prostor.

But when it comes to the really big stuff,

Ampak zakaj bi pri pomembnih rečeh,

like what's our career path going to be

recimo odločitvah o karieri

or who should we marry,

ali izbiri zakonca,

why should we assume that our intuitions

predpostavili, da je naša intuicija

are better calibrated for these than slow, proper analysis?

boljša od počasne, resne analize?

I mean, they don't have any data to be based off.

Naše iskušnje v tem primeru ne slonijo na podatkih.

So my third lesson is, while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,

Moje tretje sporočilo je torej, da ne smemo ignorirati naše intuicije,

we shouldn't overprivilege them either.

a vanje ne smemo niti polagati preveč zaupanja.

And I'd like to summarize these three lessons today

Svoje tri današnj nauke, bi rada povzela

with my own set of memes,

s svojim lastnim setom citatov

with more of a poker-player twist.

s pokerskim pridihom.

"Success is sweetest when you achieve it across a large sample size."

"Uspeh je najslajši, ko ga dosegaš pri velikem vzorcu."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

"Your gut is your friend and so is a cost-benefit analysis.

"Tvoj nagon je tvoj prijatelj in analiza stroškov in koristi prav tako."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

"The future is unknown, but you can damn well try and estimate it."

"Prihodnost je neznana, vendar pa jo lahko poskušiš predvideti."

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)