3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree

譯者: Ting-Yen Tsai 審譯者: Harry Chen

So I'm a professional poker player,

我是一個職業的撲克選手，

and today, I want to talk about three things that the game has taught me

今天我想要分享三件我從牌桌上學到

around decision-making that I find apply to everyday life.

關於做決定，

並且可以應用在日常生活中的事。

Now the first of these things is about luck.

第一件是運氣！

Now, like poker, life is also a game of skill and luck,

就像撲克牌，

人生也是一場 由技巧和運氣決定的牌局。

and when it comes to the biggest things we care about --

當提到我們最關心的事項：

health, wealth and relationships --

健康、財富和緣分時，

these outcomes don't only depend on the quality of our decision-making,

這些結果不只取決於 我們做抉擇的優劣，

but also the roll of life's dice.

還得聽憑命運骰子的滾翻。

For example, we can be perfectly health-conscious

舉例來說我們可以極致地注重養身，

and still get unlucky with something like cancer.

卻依然不幸罹患上癌症；

Or we can smoke 20 a day and live to a ripe old age,

或一天抽上二十根香菸還頤享天年。

and this kind of ambiguity can make it hard for us to know

而這種說不準讓我們難以理解：

how good our strategies are, sometimes,

我們的決策是好是壞，

especially when we're experiencing a lot of success.

特別是我們獲得許多成功時。

For example, back in 2010,

例如時間拉回西元 2010 年，

I won a really big poker tournament known as the European Poker Tour.

我贏得了確實盛大的撲克牌錦標賽－ 歐洲撲克大賽的冠軍。

And because I'd only been playing full-time for about a year,

因為當時才剛打職業賽一年左右，

when I won, I assumed I must be rather brilliant.

勝出時我自以為必定相當聰明。

In fact, I thought I was so brilliant

事實上當我認為自己很聰明...

that I not only got rather lazy with studying the game,

我不只更偷懶不去研究牌局，

but I also got more risky,

也開始變得貪險，

started playing in the biggest tournaments I could

開始盡量參加全世界最大的巡迴賽，

against the very best in the world.

對壘世上最強的高手！

And then my profit graph went from a thing of beauty

然後我的獎金折線圖從峰頂

to something kind of sad,

掉到悲慘的谷底...

with this worrying downhill trend for a long time,

且持續了這低潮走向好長一段時間，

until I finally realized that I was overestimating my skill level,

直到我終究醒悟過來 我高估了自己的牌技，

and got my act together.

才找回自己！

And this kind of reminds me of what we've been seeing

而這有些令我想起

起碼 2017 年時虛擬貨幣市場的天地；

in the cryptocurrency space, at least in 2017,

where the only thing that's been going up faster than the markets themselves

唯一比市場本身成長得更快更多的

is the number of "senior investment specialists"

是無處不斷冒出 「資深投資專家」的數量。

who have been appearing out of nowhere.

Now I'm not saying it's not possible to have a strategic edge,

我並不是說不可能擁有策略優勢，

but at the same time, it's very easy to feel like a genius

值此時當你正處於快速成長的市場，

when you're in a market that's going up so fast

你很容易以為自己是個天才，

that even the worst strategies are making a profit.

即便最草包的策略也有錢賺！

So when we're experiencing success,

所以說在我們成功當下

it's important to take a moment to really ask ourselves

花些時間好好問自己，

how much of it is truly down to us,

到底有多少歸功於自己是重要的事；

because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning.

因為我們的自大特愛在 贏的氛圍中看扁運氣因素。

Now, a second thing poker taught me

撲克牌教我的第二件事

is the importance of quantifying my thinking.

是數量性思考的重要性！

When you're playing, you can't just get away with going,

當你在玩牌時你不能只想著：

"Eh, they're probably bluffing."

他們應該只是在唬人，

That's just going to lose you a bunch of money,

這將會讓你輸一大筆錢！

because poker is a game of probabilities and precision,

因為撲克牌是機率與精準性的賽事，

and so you have to train yourself to think in numbers.

所以你必須訓練你自己用數字做思考；

So now, whenever I catch myself

所以現在無論何時我逮到自己

thinking vaguely about something really important, like,

不確切地對大事情做思考

例如：「我太可能會忘記 我要在 TED 演講的內容。」

"It's unlikely I'll forget what I want to say in my TED Talk,"

I now try to estimate it numerically.

我現在嘗試用數字來評估它。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Trust me, it helps a lot with the planning process.

相信我！伴隨做規劃時這點幫助很大，

And the thing is, almost anything that could possibly happen here today,

而且幾乎所有 今天在這裡可能發生的事－

or at any point in the future,

或者是未來某個時間點－

can also be expressed as a probability, too.

也都可以表示成機率。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So now I also try to speak in numbers as well.

所以我現在也要嘗試用數字說話，

So if someone asks me,

如果有人問我：

"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going to come along to that thing tonight?"

莉芙你有在想今晚會過來露個臉嗎？

instead of just saying to them, "Yeah, probably,"

一反只跟他們說：大概吧！

I actually give them my best estimate --

我真實地給他們我最佳估計，

say, 60 percent.

像說 60% 吧！

Because -- I know that sounds a little odd --

我知道那聽起來有點怪，

but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter

但是我在推特上做了個民調－

of what people understand the word "probably" to mean,

問大家對「大概」的意思理解為何－

而這是答案的分布－

and this was the spread of answers.

Enormous!

南轅北轍！

所以很顯然地這個字完全 沒辦法傳達任何真實的資訊。

So apparently, it's absolutely useless

at actually conveying any real information.

So if you guys catch yourselves using these vague words,

所以如果你們逮到自己 在用這些不確切的字眼，

like "probably" or "sometimes,"

像是「大概」或是「有時候」等，

try, instead, using numbers, because when we speak in numbers,

試著換成數字；

因為當我們用數字說事情，

we know what lands in the other person's brain.

我們知道對方的腦袋裡聽進去甚麼。

Now, the third thing I want to touch on today is intuition.

現在我想淺談的第三件事是直覺！

How often have you seen these kinds of inspirational memes

你們有多常在臉書動態上

看到這種開導型網路瘋傳的字圖檔？

in your Facebook feed?

[Always trust your gut feeling and never second-guess.]

【永遠相信你的直覺並且不要多想 】

They're nice, right?

它們很棒對吧？

It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."

沒錯當然很棒...信任你的心靈！

Well, they're terrible advice.

它們是垃圾建議！

These are some of the best poker players in the world right now.

這些是部分當今世上 最頂尖的撲克牌玩家，

Do they look like people who live purely off feelings and intuitions?

他們看上去像單純用感知 和直覺生活的人嗎？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Look at them!

看看他們！

Obviously, these guys are about slow, careful analysis,

很顯然他們慢條斯理、縝密分析，

and that's because the game has outgrown the days

這是因為本賽事已經遠超

where pure street smarts and people-reading

單憑機靈和讀心術

can get you to the top.

就可以把你擺上頂峰；

And that's because our intuitions aren't nearly as perfect

因為我們的直覺

並不如我們自以為的那般無懈可擊，

as we'd like to believe.

I mean, it'd be great, whenever we're in a tough spot,

我的意思是當我們陷入困境時，

to just have an answer appear to us from some magical source of inspiration.

有個答案來自神奇源頭的啟發 一閃而出太棒了。

But in reality, our gut is extremely vulnerable

但是實際上我們的直覺

碰上種種一廂情願和偏見 是大打折扣的。

to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases.

So then, what is our gut good for?

那麼我們的直覺好用在那兒呢？

Well, all the studies I've read

在我看過的所有研究

conclude that it's best-suited for everyday things

歸結直覺最合乎日常事項－

that we have lots and lots of experience in,

我們有數不完之經驗的事情，

like how we just know that our friend is mad at us

像是我們在和朋友說上話之前

before we've even said anything to them,

如何知道他正對自己生氣；

or whether we can fit our car into a tight parking spot.

或是可不可以把我們的車 停進狹窄的車位。

But when it comes to the really big stuff,

但是輪到真正的大事...

like what's our career path going to be

像是我們的職涯發展是怎樣的光景？

or who should we marry,

或是該跟誰結婚？

why should we assume that our intuitions

為什麼我們要當真以為我們的直覺

are better calibrated for these than slow, proper analysis?

比慢速、適當的分析校準地更好？

I mean, they don't have any data to be based off.

我是說這些東西並沒有任何數據歸依！

So my third lesson is, while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,

所以我的第三個教訓是 當我們不應忽視直覺的同時，

we shouldn't overprivilege them either.

我們也不能太尊仰它們！

And I'd like to summarize these three lessons today

我想要用我自己套路網路瘋傳的 字圖檔總結這三個教訓，

with my own set of memes,

with more of a poker-player twist.

帶有一個撲克牌玩家的轉折！

"Success is sweetest when you achieve it across a large sample size."

「成功是最甜美的－ 當你穿越浩大的樣本數時！」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

"Your gut is your friend and so is a cost-benefit analysis.

「你的直覺是益友－ 成本效益分析也是！」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

"The future is unknown, but you can damn well try and estimate it."

「將來是未知的－ 但你可以放手幹以及估算它！」

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）