Benoit Mandelbrot: Fractals and the art of roughness

455,226 views ・ 2010-07-06

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Sanja Srbljnović Čuček Recezent: Neda Vrkic
Puno vam hvala.
Oprostite što sjedim; vrlo sam star.
(Smijeh)
Dakle, tema o kojoj ću govoriti je u određenom smislu, vrlo neobična
00:15
Thank you very much.
0
15260
2000
jer je vrlo stara.
00:17
Please excuse me for sitting; I'm very old.
1
17260
3000
Hrapavost je od pamtivijeka dio ljudskog života
00:20
(Laughter)
2
20260
2000
00:22
Well, the topic I'm going to discuss
3
22260
2000
i drevni su pisci pisali o njoj.
00:24
is one which is, in a certain sense, very peculiar
4
24260
3000
Nije ju bilo moguće kontrolirati,
00:27
because it's very old.
5
27260
2000
i na neki način,
00:29
Roughness is part of human life
6
29260
3000
čini se krajnje složena, zbrkana i zbrčkana.
00:32
forever and forever,
7
32260
2000
00:34
and ancient authors have written about it.
8
34260
3000
Mnogo je vrsta zbrkanosti.
Zapravo, pukim slučajem,
00:37
It was very much uncontrollable,
9
37260
2000
00:39
and in a certain sense,
10
39260
2000
pred mnogo godina, bio sam uključen
00:41
it seemed to be the extreme of complexity,
11
41260
3000
u studiju tog oblika kompleksnosti,
00:44
just a mess, a mess and a mess.
12
44260
2000
00:46
There are many different kinds of mess.
13
46260
2000
i na moje veliko iznenađenje,
00:48
Now, in fact,
14
48260
2000
našao sam tragove --
00:50
by a complete fluke,
15
50260
2000
vrlo jasne tragove, moram reći --
00:52
I got involved many years ago
16
52260
3000
reda u toj hrapavosti.
00:55
in a study of this form of complexity,
17
55260
3000
Tako vam danas želim dati
nekoliko primjera onog što to predstavlja.
00:58
and to my utter amazement,
18
58260
2000
01:00
I found traces --
19
60260
2000
Draža mi je riječ hrapavost
01:02
very strong traces, I must say --
20
62260
2000
nego riječ nepravilnost
01:04
of order in that roughness.
21
64260
3000
jer nepravilnost --
01:07
And so today, I would like to present to you
22
67260
2000
nekome tko je imao latinski
01:09
a few examples
23
69260
2000
u svojoj dalekoj mladosti --
01:11
of what this represents.
24
71260
2000
znači suprotno od pravilnosti.
01:13
I prefer the word roughness
25
73260
2000
Ali to nije tako.
01:15
to the word irregularity
26
75260
2000
Pravilnost je suprotna hrapavosti
01:17
because irregularity --
27
77260
2000
01:19
to someone who had Latin
28
79260
2000
jer je osnovni aspekt svijeta vrlo hrapav.
01:21
in my long-past youth --
29
81260
2000
01:23
means the contrary of regularity.
30
83260
2000
Da vam pokažem nekoliko predmeta.
01:25
But it is not so.
31
85260
2000
Neki od njih su umjetni.
01:27
Regularity is the contrary of roughness
32
87260
3000
Drugi od njih su vrlo stvarni, u nekom smislu.
01:30
because the basic aspect of the world
33
90260
2000
Ovo je stvarno. To je šenon.
01:32
is very rough.
34
92260
2000
A zašto vam pokazujem šenon,
01:34
So let me show you a few objects.
35
94260
3000
tako obično i drevno povrće?
01:37
Some of them are artificial.
36
97260
2000
01:39
Others of them are very real, in a certain sense.
37
99260
3000
Jer, koliko god da bilo staro i drevno,
01:42
Now this is the real. It's a cauliflower.
38
102260
3000
vrlo je komplicirano
i vrlo jednostavno,
01:45
Now why do I show a cauliflower,
39
105260
3000
sve u isti mah.
Važete li ga -- naravno, lako ga je izvagati,
01:48
a very ordinary and ancient vegetable?
40
108260
3000
a kad ga jedete, težina je važna --
01:51
Because old and ancient as it may be,
41
111260
3000
no pretpostavimo da pokušate izmjeriti njegovu površinu.
01:54
it's very complicated and it's very simple,
42
114260
3000
01:57
both at the same time.
43
117260
2000
01:59
If you try to weigh it -- of course it's very easy to weigh it,
44
119260
3000
Dakle, vrlo je zanimljivo.
Odrežete li oštrim nožem
02:02
and when you eat it, the weight matters --
45
122260
3000
jednu od cvjetnih grana šenona
02:05
but suppose you try to
46
125260
3000
i pogledate je zasebno,
mislit ćete na cijeli šenon, ali manji.
02:08
measure its surface.
47
128260
2000
02:10
Well, it's very interesting.
48
130260
2000
A onda opet odrežete i opet i opet i opet i opet i opet
02:12
If you cut, with a sharp knife,
49
132260
3000
i još uvijek dobivate male šenone.
02:15
one of the florets of a cauliflower
50
135260
2000
02:17
and look at it separately,
51
137260
2000
Ljudskom je iskustvu dakle oduvijek poznato
02:19
you think of a whole cauliflower, but smaller.
52
139260
3000
da postoje neki oblici s tim posebnim svojstvom,
02:22
And then you cut again,
53
142260
2000
02:24
again, again, again, again, again, again, again, again,
54
144260
3000
da je svaki dio poput cjeline,
02:27
and you still get small cauliflowers.
55
147260
2000
ali manji.
02:29
So the experience of humanity
56
149260
2000
A što je čovječanstvo s time napravilo?
02:31
has always been that there are some shapes
57
151260
3000
Vrlo, vrlo malo.
02:34
which have this peculiar property,
58
154260
2000
(Smijeh)
02:36
that each part is like the whole,
59
156260
3000
I što sam zapravo učinio -
02:39
but smaller.
60
159260
2000
proučavao sam ovaj problem
02:41
Now, what did humanity do with that?
61
161260
3000
02:44
Very, very little.
62
164260
3000
i otkrio nešto prilično iznenađujuće.
02:47
(Laughter)
63
167260
3000
Da se hrapavost može mjeriti nekim brojem,
02:50
So what I did actually is to
64
170260
3000
02:53
study this problem,
65
173260
3000
2,3; 1,2 a katkad i nekim većim.
02:56
and I found something quite surprising.
66
176260
3000
Jednom mi je neki prijatelj, da me zagnjavi,
02:59
That one can measure roughness
67
179260
3000
donio neku sliku i pitao,
“Kolika je hrapavost ove krivulje?”
03:02
by a number, a number,
68
182260
3000
Rekao sam, “Nešto manja od 1,5.”
03:05
2.3, 1.2 and sometimes much more.
69
185260
3000
Bila je 1,48.
03:08
One day, a friend of mine,
70
188260
2000
Dakle, nije mi trebalo puno vremena.
03:10
to bug me,
71
190260
2000
Dugo sam proučavao te stvari.
03:12
brought a picture and said,
72
192260
2000
To su dakle brojevi koji mogu opisati hrapavost tih površina.
03:14
"What is the roughness of this curve?"
73
194260
2000
03:16
I said, "Well, just short of 1.5."
74
196260
3000
03:19
It was 1.48.
75
199260
2000
Moram vam reći da su te površine potpuno umjetne.
03:21
Now, it didn't take me any time.
76
201260
2000
Napravljene su računalom,
03:23
I've been looking at these things for so long.
77
203260
2000
a jedini je unos bio broj,
03:25
So these numbers are the numbers
78
205260
2000
a taj je broj hrapavost.
03:27
which denote the roughness of these surfaces.
79
207260
3000
Tako sam na lijevoj slici
03:30
I hasten to say that these surfaces
80
210260
2000
uzeo hrapavost kopiranu s mnogih pejzaža.
03:32
are completely artificial.
81
212260
2000
03:34
They were done on a computer,
82
214260
2000
Na desnoj sam uzeo veću hrapavost.
03:36
and the only input is a number,
83
216260
2000
Tako oko, nakon nekog vremena
03:38
and that number is roughness.
84
218260
3000
može dobro razlikovati jednu od druge.
03:41
So on the left,
85
221260
2000
Čovječanstvo je moralo učiti mjeriti hrapavost.
03:43
I took the roughness copied from many landscapes.
86
223260
3000
Ovo je vrlo hrapavo, ovo donekle glatko, a ovo je savršeno glatko.
03:46
To the right, I took a higher roughness.
87
226260
3000
Vrlo je malo stvari vrlo glatko.
03:49
So the eye, after a while,
88
229260
2000
Pa ako pokušate s pitanjima:
03:51
can distinguish these two very well.
89
231260
3000
03:54
Humanity had to learn about measuring roughness.
90
234260
2000
“Kolika je površina šenona?”
03:56
This is very rough, and this is sort of smooth, and this perfectly smooth.
91
236260
3000
Mjerit ćete i mjeriti i mjeriti.
03:59
Very few things are very smooth.
92
239260
3000
Kad god se približite, postaje veća,
sve do vrlo, vrlo malih razmaka.
04:03
So then if you try to ask questions:
93
243260
3000
Kolika je duljina obalne crte ovih jezera?
04:06
"What's the surface of a cauliflower?"
94
246260
2000
04:08
Well, you measure and measure and measure.
95
248260
3000
Što bliže mjerite, to je dulja.
04:11
Each time you're closer, it gets bigger,
96
251260
3000
Koncept duljine obalne crte,
koji se čini tako prirodan, jer se navodi na mnogo mjesta,
04:14
down to very, very small distances.
97
254260
2000
04:16
What's the length of the coastline
98
256260
2000
je zapravo zabluda; tako nešto ne postoji.
04:18
of these lakes?
99
258260
2000
04:20
The closer you measure, the longer it is.
100
260260
3000
Morate tome drugačije pristupiti.
04:23
The concept of length of coastline,
101
263260
2000
Što će vam to znanje?
04:25
which seems to be so natural
102
265260
2000
Pa, nećete vjerovati,
04:27
because it's given in many cases,
103
267260
2000
korisno je na mnogo načina.
04:29
is, in fact, complete fallacy; there's no such thing.
104
269260
3000
Za početak, umjetni pejzaži, koje sam na neki način smislio,
04:32
You must do it differently.
105
272260
3000
koriste se u kinematografiji sve vrijeme.
04:35
What good is that, to know these things?
106
275260
2000
Vidimo planine u daljini.
04:37
Well, surprisingly enough,
107
277260
2000
To mogu biti planine, a mogu biti i samo pokrenute formule.
04:39
it's good in many ways.
108
279260
2000
04:41
To begin with, artificial landscapes,
109
281260
2000
Sad je to vrlo lako učiniti.
04:43
which I invented sort of,
110
283260
2000
Nekad je to bilo vrlo dugotrajno, sad to nije ništa.
04:45
are used in cinema all the time.
111
285260
3000
Pogledajte ovo. To su prava pluća.
04:48
We see mountains in the distance.
112
288260
2000
Pluća su nešto vrlo čudnovato.
04:50
They may be mountains, but they may be just formulae, just cranked on.
113
290260
3000
Uzmete li ih u ruke, znat ćete da vrlo malo teže.
04:53
Now it's very easy to do.
114
293260
2000
04:55
It used to be very time-consuming, but now it's nothing.
115
295260
3000
Volumen pluća je vrlo malen,
04:58
Now look at that. That's a real lung.
116
298260
3000
no što je s površinom pluća?
05:01
Now a lung is something very strange.
117
301260
2000
Anatomi su o tome puno raspravljali.
05:03
If you take this thing,
118
303260
2000
Neki kažu da normalna muška pluća
05:05
you know very well it weighs very little.
119
305260
3000
05:08
The volume of a lung is very small,
120
308260
2000
imaju površinu unutrašnjeg košarkaškog igrališta.
05:10
but what about the area of the lung?
121
310260
3000
A drugi kažu, ne, pet takvih igrališta.
05:13
Anatomists were arguing very much about that.
122
313260
3000
Poprilično neslaganje.
05:16
Some say that a normal male's lung
123
316260
3000
A zašto?
Zato što je površina pluća
05:19
has an area of the inside
124
319260
2000
nešto što je vrlo loše definirano.
05:21
of a basketball [court].
125
321260
2000
05:23
And the others say, no, five basketball [courts].
126
323260
3000
Bronhiji se granaju, granaju, granaju
i prestaju se granati, ne zbog nekog principa,
05:27
Enormous disagreements.
127
327260
2000
05:29
Why so? Because, in fact, the area of the lung
128
329260
3000
05:32
is something very ill-defined.
129
332260
2000
već iz fizičkog razloga: zbog sluzi koja je u plućima.
05:35
The bronchi branch, branch, branch
130
335260
3000
05:38
and they stop branching,
131
338260
3000
Pa se događa da možete imati
i daleko veća pluća,
05:41
not because of any matter of principle,
132
341260
3000
no ona će se granati i granati do otprilike istih distanci
05:44
but because of physical considerations:
133
344260
3000
i kod kita i kod čovjeka, kao i kod sitnog glodavca.
05:47
the mucus, which is in the lung.
134
347260
3000
A kakve koristi od toga?
05:50
So what happens is that in a way
135
350260
2000
05:52
you have a much bigger lung,
136
352260
2000
Pa začudo, nećete vjerovati,
05:54
but it branches and branches
137
354260
2000
05:56
down to distances about the same for a whale, for a man
138
356260
3000
anatomi su imali vrlo slabu predodžbu strukture pluća, sve donedavno.
05:59
and for a little rodent.
139
359260
2000
I mislim da je moja matematika,
06:02
Now, what good is it to have that?
140
362260
3000
za divno čudo,
06:05
Well, surprisingly enough, amazingly enough,
141
365260
2000
bila od velike pomoći kirurzima
06:07
the anatomists had a very poor idea
142
367260
3000
koji su proučavali plućne bolesti
06:10
of the structure of the lung until very recently.
143
370260
3000
kao i bolesti bubrega
06:13
And I think that my mathematics,
144
373260
2000
i svih sustava koji se granaju,
06:15
surprisingly enough,
145
375260
2000
a za koje nije bilo geometrije.
06:17
has been of great help
146
377260
2000
Tako sam se takoreći našao u konstruiranju geometrije,
06:19
to the surgeons
147
379260
2000
06:21
studying lung illnesses
148
381260
2000
geometrije stvari koje nisu imale geometriju.
06:23
and also kidney illnesses,
149
383260
2000
06:25
all these branching systems,
150
385260
2000
Tu je začuđujuće da su vrlo često
06:27
for which there was no geometry.
151
387260
3000
pravila te geometrije izuzetno kratka.
06:30
So I found myself, in other words,
152
390260
2000
06:32
constructing a geometry,
153
392260
2000
Imate ovoliko duge formule.
06:34
a geometry of things which had no geometry.
154
394260
3000
Zavrtite ih nekoliko puta.
Ponekad ponavljano: opet, opet i opet isto ponavljanje.
06:37
And a surprising aspect of it
155
397260
2000
06:39
is that very often, the rules of this geometry
156
399260
3000
Na kraju, dobijete nešto poput ovog.
06:42
are extremely short.
157
402260
2000
Ovaj oblak je u potpunosti, sto posto umjetan.
06:44
You have formulas that long.
158
404260
2000
06:46
And you crank it several times.
159
406260
2000
Dobro, 99,9.
06:48
Sometimes repeatedly: again, again, again,
160
408260
2000
A jedini prirodni dio je broj,
06:50
the same repetition.
161
410260
2000
06:52
And at the end, you get things like that.
162
412260
2000
hrapavost tog oblaka, koji je uzet iz prirode.
06:54
This cloud is completely,
163
414260
2000
06:56
100 percent artificial.
164
416260
3000
Nešto toliko komplicirano kao oblak,
tako nestabilno, tako varirajuće,
06:59
Well, 99.9.
165
419260
2000
treba nositi u sebi jednostavno pravilo.
07:01
And the only part which is natural
166
421260
2000
07:03
is a number, the roughness of the cloud,
167
423260
2000
A to jednostavno pravilo
07:05
which is taken from nature.
168
425260
2000
nije objašnjenje oblaka.
07:07
Something so complicated like a cloud,
169
427260
2000
Promatrač oblaka mora to uzeti u obzir.
07:09
so unstable, so varying,
170
429260
2000
07:11
should have a simple rule behind it.
171
431260
3000
Ne znam koliko su napredne ove slike -- stare su.
07:14
Now this simple rule
172
434260
3000
07:17
is not an explanation of clouds.
173
437260
3000
Prilično sam se bavio time,
a onda pažnju posvetio drugim fenomenima.
07:20
The seer of clouds had to
174
440260
2000
07:22
take account of it.
175
442260
2000
A ima još jedna prilično interesantna stvar.
07:24
I don't know how much advanced
176
444260
3000
07:27
these pictures are. They're old.
177
447260
2000
Jedan od dramatičnih događaja u povijesti matematike,
07:29
I was very much involved in it,
178
449260
2000
07:31
but then turned my attention to other phenomena.
179
451260
3000
kojeg mnogo ljudi ne razumije,
07:34
Now, here is another thing
180
454260
2000
dogodio se prije oko 130, 145 godina.
07:36
which is rather interesting.
181
456260
3000
Matematičari su počeli kreirati oblike koji nisu postojali.
07:39
One of the shattering events
182
459260
2000
07:41
in the history of mathematics,
183
461260
2000
Matematičari su bili puni samohvale
07:43
which is not appreciated by many people,
184
463260
3000
do mjere koja je bila zapanjujuća,
07:46
occurred about 130 years ago,
185
466260
2000
da čovjek može smisliti stvari koje priroda nije poznavala.
07:48
145 years ago.
186
468260
2000
07:50
Mathematicians began to create
187
470260
2000
Točnije, mogao je smisliti nešto poput krivulje koja ispunjava ravninu.
07:52
shapes that didn't exist.
188
472260
2000
07:54
Mathematicians got into self-praise
189
474260
3000
Krivulja je krivulja, a ravnina ravnina,
07:57
to an extent which was absolutely amazing,
190
477260
2000
i to dvoje se ne želi miješati.
07:59
that man can invent things
191
479260
2000
A ipak se miješaju.
08:01
that nature did not know.
192
481260
2000
Čovjek po imenu Peano definirao je takve krivulje,
08:03
In particular, it could invent
193
483260
2000
08:05
things like a curve which fills the plane.
194
485260
3000
što je postalo predmetom nevjerojatnog zanimanja.
08:08
A curve's a curve, a plane's a plane,
195
488260
2000
08:10
and the two won't mix.
196
490260
2000
Bilo je to vrlo važno, no uglavnom zanimljivo
08:12
Well, they do mix.
197
492260
2000
zbog svojevrsnog raskola,
08:14
A man named Peano
198
494260
2000
razdvajanja matematike koja dolazi iz stvarnosti,
08:16
did define such curves,
199
496260
2000
08:18
and it became an object of extraordinary interest.
200
498260
3000
i nove matematike koja dolazi iz čistog ljudskog uma.
08:21
It was very important, but mostly interesting
201
501260
3000
Nažalost sam pokazao
08:24
because a kind of break,
202
504260
2000
da je čisti ljudski um ustvari konačno uvidio
08:26
a separation between
203
506260
2000
08:28
the mathematics coming from reality, on the one hand,
204
508260
3000
08:31
and new mathematics coming from pure man's mind.
205
511260
3000
ono što je već odavno bilo viđeno.
Tako ovdje uvodim nešto,
08:34
Well, I was very sorry to point out
206
514260
3000
niz rijeka krivulje koja ispunjava ravninu.
08:37
that the pure man's mind
207
517260
2000
08:39
has, in fact,
208
519260
2000
No dobro, to je priča za sebe.
08:41
seen at long last
209
521260
2000
08:43
what had been seen for a long time.
210
523260
2000
Bilo je to od 1875. do 1925.,
08:45
And so here I introduce something,
211
525260
2000
u fascinantnom razdoblju
08:47
the set of rivers of a plane-filling curve.
212
527260
3000
u kojem se matematika pripremala za odvajanje od svijeta.
08:50
And well,
213
530260
2000
A predmeti korišteni dok sam bio đak i student
08:52
it's a story unto itself.
214
532260
2000
08:54
So it was in 1875 to 1925,
215
534260
3000
kao primjeri raskola matematike i vidljive realnosti --
08:57
an extraordinary period
216
537260
2000
08:59
in which mathematics prepared itself to break out from the world.
217
539260
3000
te predmete, potpuno sam ih obrnuo.
09:02
And the objects which were used
218
542260
2000
09:04
as examples, when I was
219
544260
2000
Koristio sam ih za opisivanje nekih aspekata kompleksnosti prirode.
09:06
a child and a student, as examples
220
546260
2000
09:08
of the break between mathematics
221
548260
3000
09:11
and visible reality --
222
551260
2000
1919., čovjek imenom Hausdorff
09:13
those objects,
223
553260
2000
uveo je broj koji je smatran samo matematičkom šalom,
09:15
I turned them completely around.
224
555260
2000
09:17
I used them for describing
225
557260
2000
a ja sam otkrio da je taj broj dobra mjera za hrapavost.
09:19
some of the aspects of the complexity of nature.
226
559260
3000
Kad su to moji matematičari čuli, rekli su,
09:22
Well, a man named Hausdorff in 1919
227
562260
3000
“Ne budi blesav, to je samo...”
09:25
introduced a number which was just a mathematical joke,
228
565260
3000
Pa zapravo, nisam bio blesav.
09:28
and I found that this number
229
568260
2000
Slavni slikar Hokusai to je dobro znao.
09:30
was a good measurement of roughness.
230
570260
2000
Ono na tlu su alge.
09:32
When I first told it to my friends in mathematics
231
572260
2000
09:34
they said, "Don't be silly. It's just something [silly]."
232
574260
3000
On nije poznavao tu matematiku; toga još nije bilo.
A on je bio Japanac koji nije imao kontakta sa Zapadom.
09:37
Well actually, I was not silly.
233
577260
3000
No slikarstvo je odavna imalo fraktalnu stranu.
09:40
The great painter Hokusai knew it very well.
234
580260
3000
O tome bih mogao dugo pričati.
09:43
The things on the ground are algae.
235
583260
2000
Eiffelov toranj ima fraktalni aspekt.
09:45
He did not know the mathematics; it didn't yet exist.
236
585260
3000
Pročitao sam knjigu g. Eiffela o njegovom tornju,
09:48
And he was Japanese who had no contact with the West.
237
588260
3000
i zaista je fascinantno koliko je toga shvaćao.
09:51
But painting for a long time had a fractal side.
238
591260
3000
09:54
I could speak of that for a long time.
239
594260
2000
To je zbrka, Brownova petlja. [Brownov klaster]
09:56
The Eiffel Tower has a fractal aspect.
240
596260
3000
Jednog dana sam odlučio --
negdje na polovici svoje karijere.
09:59
I read the book that Mr. Eiffel wrote about his tower,
241
599260
3000
Bio sam ograničen s puno stvari u poslu --
10:02
and indeed it was astonishing how much he understood.
242
602260
3000
odlučio sam se iskušati.
10:05
This is a mess, mess, mess, Brownian loop.
243
605260
3000
Bi li mogao samo gledati nešto
što su već svi dugo vremena promatrali
10:08
One day I decided --
244
608260
2000
10:10
halfway through my career,
245
610260
2000
i pronaći nešto geometrijski novo?
10:12
I was held by so many things in my work --
246
612260
3000
Tako sam promatrao ove stvari
10:15
I decided to test myself.
247
615260
3000
10:18
Could I just look at something
248
618260
2000
nazvane Brownovo gibanje -- samo ide uokolo.
10:20
which everybody had been looking at for a long time
249
620260
3000
Neko sam se vrijeme igrao njime,
10:23
and find something dramatically new?
250
623260
3000
i natjerao ga da se vrati na početak.
Onda bih rekao svom asistentu,
10:26
Well, so I looked at these
251
626260
3000
“Ne vidim ništa; možeš li to nacrtati?”
10:29
things called Brownian motion -- just goes around.
252
629260
3000
I on je to nacrtao, sve je stavio unutra.
10:32
I played with it for a while,
253
632260
2000
Rekao je: “Pa ispalo je ovo...”
10:34
and I made it return to the origin.
254
634260
3000
Povikao sam, “Stani, stani, stani!
Vidim, to je otok.”
10:37
Then I was telling my assistant,
255
637260
2000
10:39
"I don't see anything. Can you paint it?"
256
639260
2000
Upravo nevjerojatno.
10:41
So he painted it, which means
257
641260
2000
Dakle, Brownovo gibanje,
koje ima hrapavost broja dva, ide uokolo.
10:43
he put inside everything. He said:
258
643260
2000
10:45
"Well, this thing came out ..." And I said, "Stop! Stop! Stop!
259
645260
3000
Izmjerio sam ga, 1,33.
10:48
I see; it's an island."
260
648260
3000
Opet, i opet, i opet.
Duga mjerenja, velika Brownova gibanja, 1,33.
10:51
And amazing.
261
651260
2000
10:53
So Brownian motion, which happens to have
262
653260
2000
Matematički problem: kako to dokazati?
10:55
a roughness number of two, goes around.
263
655260
3000
Mojim je prijateljima trebalo 20 godina.
10:58
I measured it, 1.33.
264
658260
2000
11:00
Again, again, again.
265
660260
2000
Trojica su imala nepotpune dokaze.
11:02
Long measurements, big Brownian motions,
266
662260
2000
Sastali su se i zajedno našli dokaz.
11:04
1.33.
267
664260
2000
11:06
Mathematical problem: how to prove it?
268
666260
3000
Pa su dobili veliku [Fieldsovu] medalju u matematici,
11:09
It took my friends 20 years.
269
669260
3000
jednu od tri medalje koju su drugi dobili
11:12
Three of them were having incomplete proofs.
270
672260
3000
jer su dokazali stvari koje sam vidio
11:15
They got together, and together they had the proof.
271
675260
3000
ali ih nisam mogao dokazati.
Svi me prije ili kasnije pitaju,
11:19
So they got the big [Fields] medal in mathematics,
272
679260
3000
“Kako je to sve započelo?
11:22
one of the three medals that people have received
273
682260
2000
Što vas je dovelo u te neobične vode?
11:24
for proving things which I've seen
274
684260
3000
11:27
without being able to prove them.
275
687260
3000
Što sve morate istovremeno biti -
strojarski inženjer, geograf, matematičar i fizičar?”
11:30
Now everybody asks me at one point or another,
276
690260
3000
11:33
"How did it all start?
277
693260
2000
11:35
What got you in that strange business?"
278
695260
3000
Zapravo sam počeo, nećete vjerovati, proučavajući cijene na burzi.
11:38
What got you to be,
279
698260
2000
I tako sam tu razvio ovu teoriju i o njoj pisao knjige --
11:40
at the same time, a mechanical engineer,
280
700260
2000
11:42
a geographer
281
702260
2000
11:44
and a mathematician and so on, a physicist?
282
704260
2000
11:46
Well actually I started, oddly enough,
283
706260
3000
rast financijskih cijena.
Lijevo su podaci prikupljani dugo vremena.
11:49
studying stock market prices.
284
709260
2000
11:51
And so here
285
711260
2000
Na vrhu zdesna,
vidite teoriju koja je vrlo, vrlo moderna.
11:53
I had this theory,
286
713260
3000
Jednostavna je i možete o njoj vrlo brzo napisati puno knjiga.
11:56
and I wrote books about it --
287
716260
2000
11:58
financial prices increments.
288
718260
2000
(Smijeh)
12:00
To the left you see data over a long period.
289
720260
2000
Na tisuće je knjiga napisano o tome.
12:02
To the right, on top,
290
722260
2000
Sad to usporedite sa stvarnim pomacima cijena.
12:04
you see a theory which is very, very fashionable.
291
724260
3000
12:07
It was very easy, and you can write many books very fast about it.
292
727260
3000
Gdje su stvarni pomaci cijena?
Dakle, ove druge linije uključuju neke stvarne pomake cijena
12:10
(Laughter)
293
730260
2000
12:12
There are thousands of books on that.
294
732260
3000
i neke lažne koje sam ja kreirao.
Tako je tu ideja bila da se mora moći --
12:15
Now compare that with real price increments.
295
735260
3000
12:18
Where are real price increments?
296
738260
2000
kako bi to rekli? -- dati model varijacije cijena.
12:20
Well, these other lines
297
740260
2000
I to je stvarno dobro išlo pred 50 godina.
12:22
include some real price increments
298
742260
2000
12:24
and some forgery which I did.
299
744260
2000
Čitavih 50 godina su me pomalo omalovažavali
12:26
So the idea there was
300
746260
2000
jer se to moglo puno lakše izvesti.
12:28
that one must be able to -- how do you say? --
301
748260
2000
Ali kažem vam, tada su me ljudi slušali.
12:30
model price variation.
302
750260
3000
12:33
And it went really well 50 years ago.
303
753260
3000
(Smijeh)
Ove dvije krivulje su prosječne vrijednosti:
12:36
For 50 years, people were sort of pooh-poohing me
304
756260
3000
[indeks agencije] S&P, plava,
12:39
because they could do it much, much easier.
305
759260
2000
a crvena [indeks agencije] S&P bez pet najvećih diskontinuiteta.
12:41
But I tell you, at this point, people listened to me.
306
761260
3000
12:44
(Laughter)
307
764260
2000
Diskontinuiteti su gnjavaža
12:46
These two curves are averages:
308
766260
2000
12:48
Standard & Poor, the blue one;
309
768260
2000
pa se u mnogim analizama cijena oni izostavljaju.
12:50
and the red one is Standard & Poor's
310
770260
2000
12:52
from which the five biggest discontinuities
311
772260
3000
“Dakle, viša sila.”
A ono što ostaje je malo besmisleno.
12:55
are taken out.
312
775260
2000
12:57
Now discontinuities are a nuisance,
313
777260
2000
Na ovoj je slici pet viših sila važno koliko i sve ostalo.
12:59
so in many studies of prices,
314
779260
3000
13:02
one puts them aside.
315
782260
2000
13:04
"Well, acts of God.
316
784260
2000
Drugim riječima, višu silu ne bi trebali držati po strani.
13:06
And you have the little nonsense which is left.
317
786260
3000
To je srž, to je problem.
13:09
Acts of God." In this picture,
318
789260
3000
Ovladate li time, ovladat ćete cijenom,
13:12
five acts of God are as important as everything else.
319
792260
3000
a ne ovladate li time,
možete se do mile volje uspješno baviti šumom,
13:15
In other words,
320
795260
2000
13:17
it is not acts of God that we should put aside.
321
797260
2000
ali to nije važno.
13:19
That is the meat, the problem.
322
799260
3000
Dakle, tu su krivulje za to.
Sad stižem do konačne stvari,
13:22
If you master these, you master price,
323
802260
3000
a to je set koji nosi moje ime.
13:25
and if you don't master these, you can master
324
805260
2000
Na neki način, moja životna priča.
13:27
the little noise as well as you can,
325
807260
2000
Bio sam adolescent za njemačke okupacije Francuske.
13:29
but it's not important.
326
809260
2000
13:31
Well, here are the curves for it.
327
811260
2000
Budući da sam mislio da bih mogao nestati za koji dan ili tjedan,
13:33
Now, I get to the final thing, which is the set
328
813260
2000
13:35
of which my name is attached.
329
815260
2000
13:37
In a way, it's the story of my life.
330
817260
2000
imao sam vrlo velike snove.
13:39
My adolescence was spent
331
819260
2000
A nakon rata,
13:41
during the German occupation of France.
332
821260
2000
ponovno sam vidio ujaka.
13:43
Since I thought that I might
333
823260
3000
Moj mi je ujak, čuveni matematičar, rekao,
13:46
vanish within a day or a week,
334
826260
3000
“Gle, postoji problem koji nisam uspio riješiti prije 25 godina
13:49
I had very big dreams.
335
829260
3000
i nitko ga ne može riješiti.
13:52
And after the war,
336
832260
2000
To je konstrukcija matematičara [Gaston] Julia i [Pierre] Fatou.
13:54
I saw an uncle again.
337
834260
2000
13:56
My uncle was a very prominent mathematician, and he told me,
338
836260
2000
Kad bi mogao otkriti nešto novo, bilo što,
13:58
"Look, there's a problem
339
838260
2000
14:00
which I could not solve 25 years ago,
340
840260
2000
napravio bi si karijeru.”
14:02
and which nobody can solve.
341
842260
2000
Vrlo jednostavno.
14:04
This is a construction of a man named [Gaston] Julia
342
844260
2000
Proučavao sam to, i poput tisuća njih prije mene,
14:06
and [Pierre] Fatou.
343
846260
2000
14:08
If you could
344
848260
2000
nisam našao ništa.
14:10
find something new, anything,
345
850260
2000
A onda se pojavilo računalo
14:12
you will get your career made."
346
852260
2000
pa sam odlučio primijeniti računalo,
14:14
Very simple.
347
854260
2000
14:16
So I looked,
348
856260
2000
ne za nove probleme u matematici --
14:18
and like the thousands of people that had tried before,
349
858260
2000
kao ovo miganje, to je novi problem --
14:20
I found nothing.
350
860260
3000
već za stare probleme.
I pošao sam od onog što se naziva realni brojevi, što su točke na pravcu,
14:23
But then the computer came,
351
863260
2000
14:25
and I decided to apply the computer,
352
865260
2000
prema imaginarnim, kompleksnim brojevima, što su točke u ravnini,
14:27
not to new problems in mathematics --
353
867260
3000
14:30
like this wiggle wiggle, that's a new problem --
354
870260
2000
a to je ono što bi se trebalo raditi,
14:32
but to old problems.
355
872260
2000
i pojavio se ovaj oblik.
14:34
And I went from what's called
356
874260
2000
Ovaj je oblik izuzetno složen.
14:36
real numbers, which are points on a line,
357
876260
2000
14:38
to imaginary, complex numbers,
358
878260
2000
Jednadžba koja se tu skriva je z prelazi u z na kvadrat, plus c.
14:40
which are points on a plane,
359
880260
2000
14:42
which is what one should do there,
360
882260
2000
Tako jednostavno, tako suhoparno.
14:44
and this shape came out.
361
884260
2000
Tako nezanimljivo.
14:46
This shape is of an extraordinary complication.
362
886260
3000
Sad je izvrtite jednom, dvaput:
14:49
The equation is hidden there,
363
889260
2000
dvaput -- čudesa nastaju.
14:51
z goes into z squared, plus c.
364
891260
3000
14:54
It's so simple, so dry.
365
894260
2000
Mislim, nastaje ovo.
Ne želim objašnjavati te stvari.
14:56
It's so uninteresting.
366
896260
2000
14:58
Now you turn the crank once, twice:
367
898260
3000
Nastaje ovo, i ovo.
Oblici tako zamršeni, a tako skladni i lijepi.
15:01
twice,
368
901260
3000
15:04
marvels come out.
369
904260
2000
Ovo nastaje ponavljano, opet, opet i opet.
15:06
I mean this comes out.
370
906260
2000
15:08
I don't want to explain these things.
371
908260
2000
A to je bilo jedno od mojih velikih otkrića
15:10
This comes out. This comes out.
372
910260
2000
da su ti otoci bili isti kao i čitava cjelina, manje-više.
15:12
Shapes which are of such complication,
373
912260
2000
15:14
such harmony and such beauty.
374
914260
3000
A onda posvuda dobijete ove neobične barokne uzorke.
15:17
This comes out
375
917260
2000
15:19
repeatedly, again, again, again.
376
919260
2000
15:21
And that was one of my major discoveries,
377
921260
2000
I sve to iz ove male formule,
15:23
to find that these islands were the same
378
923260
2000
koja ima nekoliko, pet simbola, u sebi.
15:25
as the whole big thing, more or less.
379
925260
2000
15:27
And then you get these
380
927260
2000
A onda ovo.
Boja je dodana iz dva razloga.
15:29
extraordinary baroque decorations all over the place.
381
929260
3000
Prvo, jer su ti oblici toliko složeni
15:32
All that from this little formula,
382
932260
3000
15:35
which has whatever, five symbols in it.
383
935260
3000
da se ne bi mogao uhvatiti smisao tih brojeva.
15:38
And then this one.
384
938260
2000
A ako ih crtate ploterom, morate izabrati neki sistem.
15:40
The color was added for two reasons.
385
940260
2000
Tako je moj princip bio
15:42
First of all, because these shapes
386
942260
2000
15:44
are so complicated
387
944260
3000
uvijek prikazati oblike u različitim bojama
15:47
that one couldn't make any sense of the numbers.
388
947260
3000
jer neke boje naglašavaju ovo, a druge ono.
15:50
And if you plot them, you must choose some system.
389
950260
3000
To je tako zamršeno.
15:53
And so my principle has been
390
953260
2000
(Smijeh)
15:55
to always present the shapes
391
955260
3000
1990., bio sam u Cambridgeu, U.K.
15:58
with different colorings
392
958260
2000
i primao nagradu tog sveučilišta,
16:00
because some colorings emphasize that,
393
960260
2000
a tri dana kasnije,
16:02
and others it is that or that.
394
962260
2000
pilot je nadlijetao područje i našao ovo.
16:04
It's so complicated.
395
964260
2000
16:06
(Laughter)
396
966260
2000
Odakle je to došlo?
Očito, od izvanzemaljaca.
16:08
In 1990, I was in Cambridge, U.K.
397
968260
2000
16:10
to receive a prize from the university,
398
970260
3000
(Smijeh)
16:13
and three days later,
399
973260
2000
Dakle, novine u Cambridgeu objavile su članak o tom “otkriću”
16:15
a pilot was flying over the landscape and found this thing.
400
975260
3000
i sljedećeg dana primile 5000 pisama u kojima je pisalo
16:18
So where did this come from?
401
978260
2000
16:20
Obviously, from extraterrestrials.
402
980260
2000
“Ma to je samo vrlo velik Mandelbrotov set.”
16:22
(Laughter)
403
982260
3000
16:25
Well, so the newspaper in Cambridge
404
985260
2000
Dakle, da završim.
16:27
published an article about that "discovery"
405
987260
2000
Ovaj je oblik proizašao iz vježbanja čiste matematike.
16:29
and received the next day
406
989260
2000
16:31
5,000 letters from people saying,
407
991260
2000
Neizmjerna čuda proizlaze iz jednostavnih pravila,
16:33
"But that's simply a Mandelbrot set very big."
408
993260
3000
što se ponavljaju bez kraja.
16:37
Well, let me finish.
409
997260
2000
Najljepša vam hvala.
16:39
This shape here just came
410
999260
2000
(Pljesak)
16:41
out of an exercise in pure mathematics.
411
1001260
2000
16:43
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules,
412
1003260
3000
16:46
which are repeated without end.
413
1006260
3000
16:49
Thank you very much.
414
1009260
2000
16:51
(Applause)
415
1011260
11000
O ovoj web stranici

Ova stranica će vas upoznati s YouTube videozapisima koji su korisni za učenje engleskog jezika. Vidjet ćete lekcije engleskog koje vode vrhunski profesori iz cijelog svijeta. Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove prikazane na svakoj video stranici da biste reproducirali video s tog mjesta. Titlovi se pomiču sinkronizirano s reprodukcijom videozapisa. Ako imate bilo kakvih komentara ili zahtjeva, obratite nam se putem ovog obrasca za kontakt.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7