Rory Stewart: Time to end the war in Afghanistan

Translator: Wu Price Reviewer: Ann Lee

The question today is not:

今日嘅問題唔係︰

Why did we invade Afghanistan?

點解我哋派兵阿富汗？

The question is:

問題係︰

why are we still in Afghanistan

點解十年後嘅今日

one decade later?

我哋仲喺阿富汗？

Why are we spending

點解我哋仲要用

$135 billion?

1350億美金？

Why have we got 130,000 troops on the ground?

點解仲有13萬地面軍隊？

Why were more people killed

點解呢場衝突

last month

上個月犧牲嘅人數

than in any preceding month

比起以前嘅月份都多？

of this conflict?

How has this happened?

點解會咁？

The last 20 years

過去20年

has been the age of intervention,

係干預嘅年代

and Afghanistan is simply one act

阿富汗只係五幕悲劇中嘅

in a five-act tragedy.

其中一幕

We came out of the end of the Cold War

我哋喺絕望中

in despair.

由冷戰結束行出嚟

We faced Rwanda;

我哋面對盧旺達

we faced Bosnia,

我哋面對波斯尼亞

and then we rediscovered our confidence.

然後我哋搵番自信

In the third act, we went into Bosnia and Kosovo

喺第三幕，我哋進入波斯尼亞同科索沃

and we seemed to succeed.

而且我哋睇起嚟成功咗

In the fourth act, with our hubris,

喺第四幕

傲慢助長咗過度自信

our overconfidence developing,

we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan,

我哋入侵咗伊拉克同阿富汗

and in the fifth act,

而喺第五章

we plunged into a humiliating mess.

我哋趺入咗令人羞愧嘅混亂

So the question is: What are we doing?

所以個問題係︰我哋喺度做緊咩？

Why are we still stuck in Afghanistan?

點解我哋仲留喺阿富汗？

And the answer, of course,

答案，當然

that we keep being given

正如人哋一直同我哋咁講︰

is as follows:

we're told that we went into Afghanistan

我哋派兵阿富汗

because of 9/11,

係因為911

and that we remain there

而軍隊仲留喺當地

because the Taliban poses an existential threat

係因為塔利班對全球嘅安全

to global security.

存在威脅

In the words of President Obama,

用總統奧巴馬嘅說話︰

"If the Taliban take over again,

"如果塔利班再次掌控

they will invite back Al-Qaeda,

佢哋會請阿爾蓋達組織番嚟

who will try to kill as many of our people

殺盡我哋嘅人"

as they possibly can."

The story that we're told

人哋話俾我哋聽

is that there was a "light footprint" initially --

一開始只係一個"輕足印" –

in other words, that we ended up in a situation

即係話，當時嘅情況係

where we didn't have enough troops,

無足夠嘅軍隊

we didn't have enough resources,

無足夠嘅資源

that Afghans were frustrated --

令阿富汗人失望

they felt there wasn't enough progress

佢哋覺得經濟發展同保安

and economic development and security,

嘅進展都都唔夠

and therefore the Taliban came back --

所以塔利班番咗嚟 –

that we responded in 2005 and 2006

於是我哋喺2005同2006年

with troop deployments,

以軍隊部署嚟回應

but we still didn't put enough troops on the ground.

但係我哋嘅地面部隊都係唔夠

And that it wasn't until 2009,

直至2009年

when President Obama signed off on a surge,

總統奧巴馬簽署咗增加兵嘅方案

that we finally had,

終於，我哋有啦

in the words of Secretary Clinton,

用美國國務卿希拉里嘅說話

"the strategy, the leadership and the resources."

"戰略、領導同資源"

So, as the president now reassures us,

所以總統依架同我哋保證

we are on track to achieve our goals.

我哋向緊目標進發

All of this is wrong.

所有都係錯架

Every one of those statements is wrong.

每一句都係錯架

Afghanistan does not

阿富汗無對全球全球嘅安全

pose an existential threat

造成威脅

to global security.

It is extremely unlikely

而塔利班

the Taliban would ever be able to take over the country --

係其乎無可能奪得國家嘅控制權 –

extremely unlikely they'd be able to seize Kabul.

佢哋無咩可能奪取喀布爾

They simply don't have a conventional military option.

佢哋根本無常規軍隊

And even if they were able to do so, even if I'm wrong,

就算佢哋可以咁做，就算我錯

it's extremely unlikely

喺塔利班嘅角度嚟睇

the Taliban would invite back Al-Qaeda.

塔利班都無咩可能

From the Taliban's point of view,

請阿爾蓋達組織番嚟

that was their number one mistake last time.

呢個正係佢哋上次犯嘅最大錯誤

If they hadn't invited back Al-Qaeda,

如果佢哋無請阿爾蓋達組織番嚟

they would still be in power today.

佢哋今日仲掌緊權

And even if I'm wrong about those two things,

如果呢兩點我都係錯

even if they were able to take back the country,

就算佢哋可以攞番個國家

even if they were to invite back Al-Qaeda,

就算佢哋請阿爾蓋達組織番嚟

it's extremely unlikely

阿爾蓋達組織都唔太可能

that Al-Qaeda would significantly enhance

大幅增加實力

its ability to harm the United States

or harm Europe.

去危害美國

或者去危害歐洲

Because this isn't the 1990s anymore.

因為依架已經唔再係90年代

If the Al-Qaeda base

如果阿爾蓋達組織嘅基地

was to be established near Ghazni,

係喺加茲尼附近

we would hit them very hard,

我哋就可以大力打擊佢哋

and it would be very, very difficult

而塔利班就好難，好難

for the Taliban to protect them.

保護佢哋

Furthermore, it's simply not true

再講，人哋話

that what went wrong in Afghanistan

喺阿富汗發生過嘅係輕足印

is the light footprint.

係錯架

In my experience, in fact,

喺我嘅經驗嚟睇，事實上

the light footprint was extremely helpful.

輕足印係非常有幫助

And these troops that we brought in --

我哋呢啲軍隊 –

it's a great picture of David Beckham

將碧咸張靚相

there on the sub-machine gun --

放咗喺佢哋嘅衝鋒槍上 –

made the situation worse, not better.

令到情況差咗，而唔係好咗

When I walked across Afghanistan

喺2001到2002年嘅冬天

in the winter of 2001-2002,

我徒步橫越阿富汗

what I saw was scenes like this.

我睇到嘅係咁樣嘅景象

A girl, if you're lucky,

如果你好彩嘅話會見到

in the corner of a dark room --

一個女仔喺陰暗嘅房間角落 –

lucky to be able to look at the Koran.

好好彩咁可以睇可蘭經

But in those early days

但係之前

when we're told we didn't have enough troops and enough resources,

當我哋嘅軍隊同資源都唔夠嘅時候

we made a lot of progress in Afghanistan.

我哋喺阿富汗嘅進展好好

Within a few months,

喺幾個月之內

there were two and a half million more girls in school.

多咗25萬個女仔入學

In Sangin where I was sick in 2002,

2002年我喺Sangin嘅時候病咗

the nearest health clinic

最近嘅診所

was within three days walk.

要行三日先到

Today, there are 14 health clinics

今日，單單喺嗰個地區

in that area alone.

就有14間診所

There was amazing improvements.

進展得好驚人

We went from almost no Afghans

阿富汗人由塔利班

having mobile telephones during the Taliban

幾乎無人有手提電話嘅時代

to a situation where, almost overnight,

到差唔多一夜間

three million Afghans had mobile telephones.

30萬阿富汗人都有手提電話

And we had progress in the free media.

我哋喺媒體自由方面都有進展

We had progress in elections --

選舉方面都有進展 –

all of this with the so-called light footprint.

呢啲就係所謂嘅輕足印

But when we began to bring more money,

但係當我哋開始投放更多資金

when we began to invest more resources,

當我哋投入更多資源

things got worse, not better. How?

事情變壞，而無好到，點解？

Well first see, if you put 125 billion dollars a year

首先，如果你每年將1250億美金

into a country like Afghanistan

投放喺阿富汗呢種國家

where the entire revenue of the Afghan state

全國整體收入

is one billion dollars a year,

每年只有10億美金

you drown everything.

你就會掩蓋曬所有嘢

It's not simply corruption and waste

你唔只造成貪污

that you create;

同浪費

you essentially replace the priorities of the Afghan government,

你根本上取代咗阿富汗政府嘅主要任務

the elected Afghan government,

選出嚟嘅阿富汗政府

with the micromanaging tendencies

傾向微觀管理

of foreigners on short tours

去短途旅行嘅外國人

with their own priorities.

And the same is true for the troops.

軍隊方面都係一樣道理

When I walked across Afghanistan,

我行過阿富汗嘅時候

I stayed with people like this.

我同呢啲人一齊

This is Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj.

佢係喺 Kamenj 嘅

指揮官 Haji Malem Mohsin Khan

Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj was a great host.

佢係一個好好嘅主人

He was very generous,

佢好慷慨

like many of the Afghans I stayed with.

同好多我相處過嘅阿富汗人一樣

But he was also considerably more conservative,

但係佢比我哋認為嘅

相對地更保守

considerably more anti-foreign,

相對更排斥外國

considerably more Islamist

相對更相信伊斯蘭教

than we'd like to acknowledge.

This man, for example, Mullah Mustafa,

例如呢個人 Mullah Mustafa

tried to shoot me.

試過射殺我

And the reason I'm looking a little bit perplexed in this photograph

我喺呢張相入面望落有嘅困惑嘅原因

is I was somewhat frightened,

係我有啲嚇親

and I was too afraid on this occasion

當時我好驚，唔敢問佢

to ask him, having run for an hour through the desert

佢用咗成個鐘跑過嗰沙漠

and taken refuge in this house,

匿喺呢間屋

why he had turned up and wanted to have his photograph taken with me.

問佢點解會出現要我同佢合照

But 18 months later, I asked him

但18個月之後，我問佢

why he had tried to shoot me.

點解要射殺我

And Mullah Mustafa -- he's the man with the pen and paper --

Mullah Mustafa 解釋

explained that the man sitting immediately to the left as you look at the photograph,

因為佢係拎住紙同筆嘅人

而喺呢張相我嘅左手邊

Nadir Shah

Nadir Shah同佢輸賭佢傷唔到我

had bet him that he couldn't hit me.

Now this is not to say

我嘅意思唔係話

Afghanistan is a place full of people like Mullah Mustafa.

阿富汗人都同 Mullah Mustafa 一樣

It's not; it's a wonderful place

唔係咁嘅

嗰個地方好美好

full of incredible energy and intelligence.

充滿活力同智慧

But it is a place

但係呢個地方

where the putting-in of the troops

被投放咗軍隊

has increased the violence rather than decreased it.

增加咗，而無減少到暴力

2005, Anthony Fitzherbert,

2005年

an agricultural engineer,

一位農業工程師 Anthony Fitzherbert

could travel through Helmand,

可以橫越赫爾曼德省

could stay in Nad Ali, Sangin and Ghoresh,

可以留喺 Nad Ali， Sangin 同 Ghoresh

which are now the names of villages where fighting is taking place.

呢啲哋方依架已經成為咗戰地

Today, he could never do that.

今日，佢唔再可以咁樣做

So the idea that we deployed the troops

所以我哋話以部處軍隊

to respond to the Taliban insurgency

嚟回應塔利班嘅叛亂

is mistaken.

係錯架

Rather than preceding the insurgency,

部署軍隊唔係喺塔利班叛亂之後發生

the Taliban followed the troop deployment,

而係隨之而嚟

and as far as I'm concerned,

依我睇

the troop deployment caused their return.

部署軍隊係塔利班回歸嘅原因

Now is this a new idea?

呢個係一個新嘅講法？

No, there have been any number of people

唔係，喺過去嘅七年

saying this over the last seven years.

已經有好多人談論呢個觀點

I ran a center at Harvard

喺 2008 至 2010 年我喺哈佛

from 2008 to 2010,

管理過一個中心

and there were people like Michael Semple there

嗰度嘅人，好似 Michael Semple

who speak Afghan languages fluently,

可以講流利嘅阿富汗語言

who've traveled to almost every district in the country.

佢幾乎遊歷過阿富汗所有地區

Andrew Wilder, for example,

例如 Andrew Wilder

born on the Pakistan-Iranian border,

喺巴基斯坦同伊朗邊境出世

served his whole life

佢一生

in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

都為巴基斯坦同阿富汗工作

Paul Fishstein who began working there in 1978 --

Paul Fishstein 喺 1978 年開始

worked for Save the Children,

喺阿富汗工作 –

喺救助兒童會做

ran the Afghan research and evaluation unit.

負責當地嘅研究同評估小組

These are people

呢啲人

佢哋由始至終都係話

who were able to say consistently

that the increase in development aid

增加發展援助

was making Afghanistan less secure, not more secure --

令阿富汗無咁安全

而唔係更安全 –

that the counter-insurgency strategy

而反叛亂策略

was not working and would not work.

係行唔通，亦唔會行得通

And yet, nobody listened to them.

但係，無人聽佢哋講

Instead,

反而

係一連串令人驚訝嘅樂觀主義

there was a litany of astonishing optimism.

Beginning in 2004,

喺 2004 年開始

every general came in saying,

每一位上任嘅將軍都話

"我接手咗一個慘淡嘅局面

"I've inherited a dismal situation,

but finally I have the right resources and the correct strategy,

但最終當我有

適合嘅資源同啱嘅策略

which will deliver,"

會創造出"

in General Barno's word in 2004,

用 Barno 將軍喺 2004 年嘅原話

the "decisive year."

“決定性嘅一年”

Well guess what? It didn't.

你估下點？事實唔係咁

But it wasn't sufficient to prevent General Abuzaid saying

但係咁並唔足以

阻止 Abuzaid 將軍話

that he had the strategy and the resources

佢有戰略同資源

to deliver, in 2005,

喺 2005 年創造

the "decisive year."

"決定性嘅一年"

Or General David Richards to come in 2006

或者 David Richards 將軍

喺 2006 年上任嘅時候

and say he had the strategy and the resources

話佢有戰略同資源

to deliver the "crunch year."

創造"關鍵嘅一年"

Or in 2007,

或者喺 2007 年

the Norwegian deputy foreign minister, Espen Eide,

挪威副外交大臣 Espen Eide

to say that that would deliver the "decisive year."

話會創造"決定性嘅一年"

Or in 2008, Major General Champoux

或者喺2008年

Champoux 少將上任

to come in and say he would deliver the "decisive year."

話佢會創造"決定性嘅一年"

Or in 2009, my great friend,

或者喺2009年，我嘅好朋友

General Stanley McChrystal,

Stanley McChrystal 將軍

who said that he was "knee-deep in the decisive year."

話佢"非常關注決定性嘅一年"

Or in 2010,

或者喺2010年

the U.K. foreign secretary, David Miliband,

英國外相文禮彬話

who said that at last we would deliver the "decisive year."

最後我哋會創造"決定性嘅一年"

And you'll be delighted to hear in 2011, today,

2011年嘅今日

你會好開心咁聽到

that Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister,

德國外交部長 Guido Westerwelle

assures us that we are in the "decisive year."

同我哋保證

我哋處於"決定性嘅一年"

(Applause)

(掌聲)

How do we allow

我哋點會俾

any of this to happen?

呢啲嘢發生？

Well the answer, of course, is,

個答案當然係

if you spend 125 billion or 130 billion

如果你一年喺一個國家

dollars a year in a country,

用1250或者1300億美金

you co-opt almost everybody.

你幾乎要說服所有人支持你

Even the aid agencies,

甚係援助機構

who begin to receive an enormous amount of money

佢哋喺美國同歐洲政府度

from the U.S. and the European governments

收到巨額資助

to build schools and clinics,

用嚟起學校同診所

are somewhat disinclined

都會唔願意

to challenge the idea

去挑戰呢個諗法

that Afghanistan is an existential threat

話阿富汗係全球安全

to global security.

存在威脅

They're worried, in other words,

換句話嚟講，佢哋擔心

that if anybody believes that it wasn't such a threat --

如果有任何人相信根本無威脅 –

Oxfam, Save the Children

樂施會、救助兒童

wouldn't get the money

就唔會拎到錢

to build their hospitals and schools.

去起醫院同學校

It's also very difficult to confront a general

我哋都好難同一個

心口掛滿勛章嘅將軍對抗

with medals on his chest.

It's very difficult for a politician,

對政客嚟講都好難

because you're afraid that many lives have been lost in vain.

因為你驚好多人會白白浪費咗生命

You feel deep, deep guilt.

你深深感受到愧疚

You exaggerate your fears,

你誇大你嘅恐懼

and you're terrified about the humiliation

俾擊敗嘅屈辱嚇怕

of defeat.

What is the solution to this?

有咩解決嘅方法呢？

Well the solution to this

解決嘅方法係

is we need to find a way

我哋要搵到

that people like Michael Semple, or those other people,

好似 Michael Semple

或者其他會講真話嘅人

who are telling the truth, who know the country,

了解佢哋國家嘅情況

who've spent 30 years on the ground --

喺當地生活咗30年 –

and most importantly of all,

更重要嘅係

the missing component of this --

缺乏嘅呢部份嘅正係 –

Afghans themselves,

阿富汗人自己

who understand what is going on.

佢哋明白發生緊咩事

We need to somehow get their message

我哋要將佢哋嘅信息

to the policymakers.

話俾制定政策嘅人知

And this is very difficult to do

呢點好難做到

because of our structures.

因為我哋嘅體制

The first thing we need to change

我哋首先要改變嘅係

is the structures of our government.

我哋政府嘅架構

Very, very sadly,

非常悲哀嘅係

our foreign services, the United Nations,

我哋嘅大使館、聯合國

the military in these countries

喺呢啲國家嘅軍隊

have very little idea of what's going on.

都唔了解當地嘅情況

The average British soldier is on a tour of only six months;

平均每個英國軍人駐紮6個月

Italian soldiers, on tours of four months;

意大利軍人駐紮4個月

the American military, on tours of 12 months.

美國軍隊駐紮12個月

Diplomats are locked in embassy compounds.

外交官又唔俾離開大使館

When they go out, they travel in these curious armored vehicles

離開嘅時候

都喺坐呢啲唔尋常有武器嘅車

with these somewhat threatening security teams

又會有啲嚇人嘅保鑣團隊

who ready 24 hours in advance

呢啲保鑣仲會早24小時準備好

who say you can only stay on the ground for an hour.

佢哋只會俾你喺出面逗留1個鐘

In the British embassy in Afghanistan

喺駐阿富汗嘅英國使館

in 2008,

喺2008年

an embassy of 350 people,

成個使館入面350個工作人員

there were only three people who could speak Dari,

只有3個人識得講似樣嘅

the main language of Afghanistan, at a decent level.

阿富汗嘅主要語言達利語

And there was not a single Pashto speaker.

同埋無一個識講普什圖語

In the Afghan section in London

喺倫敦嘅阿富汗組

responsible for governing Afghan policy on the ground,

負責決定喺阿富汗嘅政策

I was told last year

舊年有人話俾我知

that there was not a single staff member

喺外交部嘅嗰個組別入面

of the foreign office in that section

無任何一個職員

who had ever served

曾經喺阿富汗任職

on a posting in Afghanistan.

So we need to change that institutional culture.

所以我哋需要改變呢種體制文化

And I could make the same points about the United States

我都可以話俾大家知

美國同聯合國都有相同嘅問題

and the United Nations.

Secondly, we need to aim off of the optimism of the generals.

第二，我哋要小心對待將士嘅樂觀

We need to make sure that we're a little bit suspicious,

我哋需要抱持住一啲懷疑

that we understand that optimism

明白樂觀

is in the DNA of the military,

係植根咗喺軍隊嘅DNA入面

that we don't respond to it

我哋唔會好快咁

with quite as much alacrity.

用沉默回應

And thirdly, we need to have some humility.

第三，我哋要有謙遜

We need to begin from the position

我哋要喺

that our knowledge, our power,

我哋嘅知識，我哋嘅權力

our legitimacy

我哋嘅合法性

is limited.

都係有限嘅情況下開始

This doesn't mean

咁唔係話

that intervention around the world is a disaster.

世界上所有嘅干預都係一個災難

It isn't.

唔係架

Bosnia and Kosovo

波斯尼亞同科索沃

were signal successes,

都係成功嘅例子

great successes.

係極大嘅成功

Today when you go to Bosnia

當你今日去波斯尼亞

it is almost impossible to believe

你幾乎唔會相信

that what we saw in the early 1990s happened.

90年早期喺嗰度發生嘅事

It's almost impossible to believe the progress we've made

由1994年開始，嗰度嘅進展

since 1994.

幾乎無辦法相信

Refugee return,

難民番屋企

which the United Nations High Commission for Refugees

但係聯合國難民署

thought would be extremely unlikely,

就認為係好唔可能發生嘅

has largely happened.

喺嗰度大規模發生咗

A million properties have been returned.

退還咗100萬份財產

Borders between the Bosniak territory

波斯尼亞人同

波斯尼亞塞族人之間嘅邊界分爭停止咗

and the Bosnian-Serb territory have calmed down.

The national army has shrunk.

國家嘅軍隊縮減咗

The crime rates in Bosnia today

今日波斯尼亞嘅犯罪率

are lower than they are in Sweden.

比瑞典仲低

This has been done

呢個成就

係源於國際社會嘅

by an incredible, principled effort

by the international community,

不可思議，有原則嘅努力

and, of course, above all,

當然，最主要嘅係

by Bosnians themselves.

波斯尼亞人自己嘅努力

But you need to look at context.

另外，你仲要睇下件事嘅背景

And this is what we've lost in Afghanistan and Iraq.

呢樣就係我哋對阿富汗

同伊拉克中缺少嘅

You need to understand that in those places

你要明白，喺嗰啲地方

what really mattered

最重要嘅係

was, firstly, the role of Tudman and Milosevic

首先，圖季曼同米洛舍維奇

in coming to the agreement,

喺達成協議過程中嘅角色

and then the fact those men went,

同埋佢哋經歷過嘅事

that the regional situation improved,

好似係地區嘅情況改善

that the European Union could offer Bosnia

歐盟可以為波斯尼亞

something extraordinary:

提供特別嘅機會︰

the chance to be part

加入一個

of a new thing, a new club,

新嘅俱樂部嘅機會

a chance to join something bigger.

加入一個更大組織嘅機會

And finally, we need to understand that in Bosnia and Kosovo,

最後，我哋要明白

喺波斯尼亞同科索沃入面

a lot of the secret of what we did,

有好多我哋做過嘅秘密

a lot of the secret of our success,

有好多我哋成功嘅秘密

was our humility --

都係我哋嘅謙遜 –

was the tentative nature of our engagement.

係我哋暫時性嘅干預

We criticized people a lot in Bosnia

我哋喺波斯尼亞批評咗好多人

for being quite slow to take on war criminals.

佢哋對戰犯嘅行動緩慢

We criticized them

我哋批評佢哋

for being quite slow to return refugees.

對難民歸國嘅行動緩慢

But that slowness, that caution,

克林頓總統一開始話

the fact that President Clinton initially said

美軍只會留守一年

that American troops would only be deployed for a year,

但正正係呢種緩慢，呢種謹慎

turned out to be a strength,

依架睇嚟係優勢

and it helped us to put our priorities right.

而且幫我哋搞清咗楚重點

One of the saddest things

喺我哋對阿富汗嘅干預之中

about our involvement in Afghanistan

最悲哀嘅莫過於

is that we've got our priorities out of sync.

所有人嘅重點唔一致

We're not matching our resources to our priorities.

我哋嘅資源同重點配對唔到

Because if what we're interested in is terrorism,

如果我哋想反恐

Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan.

咁巴基斯坦比阿富汗更加重要

If what we're interested in is regional stability,

如果我哋想穩定地區局勢

Egypt is far more important.

咁埃及更加重要

If what we're worried about is poverty and development,

如果我哋擔心貧困同發展

sub-Saharan Africa is far more important.

咁撒哈拉以南嘅非洲更加重要

This doesn't mean that Afghanistan doesn't matter,

咁唔係話阿富汗唔重要

but that it's one of 40 countries in the world

但係呢個只係世界上40個

with which we need to engage.

我哋需要照顧嘅國家之一

So if I can finish with a metaphor for intervention,

咁如果我要比喻國際干預

what we need to think of

我哋可以將佢

is something like mountain rescue.

想像成山地救援

Why mountain rescue?

點解係山地救援？

Because when people talk about intervention,

因為當人講起國際干預

they imagine that some scientific theory --

佢哋會想像出一啲科學理論 –

the Rand Corporation goes around

蘭德公司

counting 43 previous insurgencies

搜集咗43個叛亂嘅先例

producing mathematical formula

建立出一條數學公式

saying you need one trained counter-insurgent

話俾你知，每20個居民

就要有一個受過訓練嘅

for every 20 members of the population.

反叛亂部隊成員

This is the wrong way of looking at it.

呢個睇法係錯架

You need to look at it in the way that you look at mountain rescue.

你應該將山地救援睇法

擺落呢件事度

When you're doing mountain rescue,

喺山地救援入面

you don't take a doctorate in mountain rescue,

你唔需要一個博士學位

you look for somebody who knows the terrain.

你需要嘅係搵一個熟悉地形嘅人

It's about context.

係睇情況而定

You understand that you can prepare,

你可以提早準備

but the amount of preparation you can do

但係可以準備嘅嘢

is limited --

係有限嘅 –

you can take some water, you can have a map,

你可以帶啲水，帶張地圖

you can have a pack.

孭個背囊

But what really matters

但真正重要嘅

is two kinds of problems --

係兩種困難 –

problems that occur on the mountain

喺山度出現嘅問題

which you couldn't anticipate,

係唔可以預測嘅

such as, for example, ice on a slope,

例如山坡上面結咗冰

but which you can get around,

但你都可以避開

and problems which you couldn't anticipate

另外就係你預計唔到

and which you can't get around,

而且無避唔開嘅問題

like a sudden blizzard or an avalanche

好似係突發嘅暴風雪或者雪崩

or a change in the weather.

或者係天氣嘅變化

And the key to this

呢度嘅關鍵

is a guide who has been on that mountain,

就係搵一個喺唔同嘅溫度下

喺每一個時段

in every temperature,

去過呢坐山嘅嚮導 –

at every period --

a guide who, above all,

最重要嘅係呢個嚮導

knows when to turn back,

知道幾時折返

who doesn't press on relentlessly

喺條件轉差嘅情況下

when conditions turn against them.

佢唔會不停咁前進

What we look for

我哋揀

in firemen, in climbers, in policemen,

消防員、登山者、警察嘅時候

and what we should look for in intervention,

同我哋揀人去參與國際干預嘅時候

is intelligent risk takers --

都係搵聰明嘅冒險者 –

not people who plunge blind off a cliff,

唔係會跳落懸崖嘅人

not people who jump into a burning room,

唔係會跳入火場嘅人

but who weigh their risks,

係會衡量風險嘅人

weigh their responsibilities.

會權衡責任嘅人

Because the worst thing we have done in Afghanistan

因為我哋喺阿富汗做過最差嘅嘢

is this idea

係呢個諗法

that failure is not an option.

唔準失敗

It makes failure invisible,

咁樣令失敗變成透明

inconceivable and inevitable.

難以置信同埋唔可以避免

And if we can resist

如果我哋可以抵抗

this crazy slogan,

呢個瘋狂嘅口號

we shall discover --

我哋就會發現 –

in Egypt, in Syria, in Libya,

喺埃及、敍利亞、利比亞

and anywhere else we go in the world --

仲有我哋干預過嘅國家 –

that if we can often do much less than we pretend,

如果我哋可以做得比假裝嘅少啲

we can do much more than we fear.

我哋反而可以做得比起驚慌更多

Thank you very much.

多謝大家

(掌聲)

(Applause)

Thank you. Thank you very much.

多謝，非常多謝

Thank you. Thank you very much.

多謝，非常多謝

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

多謝，多謝，多謝

(Applause)

(掌聲)

Thank you.

多謝

Thank you. Thank you.

多謝，多謝

Thank you.

多謝

(Applause)

(掌聲)

Bruno Giussani: Rory, you mentioned Libya at the end.

Bruno Giussani︰Rory

你最後提到利比亞

Just briefly, what's your take on the current events there

簡單啲問，你對嗰度近期嘅事件

and the intervention?

同干預有咩睇法？

Rory Stewart: Okay, I think Libya poses the classic problem.

Rory︰我覺得利比亞

展示咗一個經典問題

The problem in Libya

喺利比亞嘅問題

is that we are always pushing for the black or white.

係我哋成日要分黑白

We imagine there are only two choices:

想像一下我哋淨係得兩個選擇

either full engagement and troop deployment

一係完全干預同部署軍隊

or total isolation.

一係完全孤立

And we are always being tempted up to our neck.

我哋成日都忍唔住陷入去

We put our toes in and we go up to our neck.

我哋輕微咁接觸就完全陷入

What we should have done in Libya

我哋喺利比亞應該

is we should have stuck to the U.N. resolution.

嚴格遵守聯合國決議

We should have limited ourselves very, very strictly

我哋應該好嚴咁限制自己

to the protection of the civilian population in Benghazi.

去保護班加西嘅人民

We could have done that.

我哋本來可以咁做

We set up a no-fly zone within 48 hours

我哋喺48個鐘內制定禁飛區

because Gaddafi had no planes

因為卡達菲喺48個鐘入面

within 48 hours.

無飛機

Instead of which, we've allowed ourselves to be tempted

調反轉頭，如果我哋忍受唔到

towards regime change.

政權更變嘅誘惑

In doing so, we've destroyed our credibility with the Security Council,

咁我哋就會破壞咗

安全理事會嘅誠信

which means it's very difficult

亦即係話更難

to get a resolution on Syria,

為敍利亞提供議案

and we're setting ourselves up again for failure.

我哋又再為自己埋下失敗嘅種子

Once more, humility,

再一次，謙遜嘅態度

limits, honesty,

自我限定、誠實

realistic expectations

實際嘅期望

and we could have achieved something to be proud of.

可以成就一啲我哋引以自豪嘅事

BG: Rory, thank you very much.

Bruno︰Rory，好多謝你

RS: Thank you. (BG: Thank you.)

Rory︰多謝你 (Bruno︰多謝你)