Rory Stewart: Time to end the war in Afghanistan

134,165 views ใƒป 2011-07-25

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์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Hyein Cho ๊ฒ€ํ† : Bianca Lee
00:15
The question today is not:
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์˜ค๋Š˜ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌผ์–ด์•ผ ํ•  ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:
00:18
Why did we invade Afghanistan?
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์™œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์„ ์นจ๋žต ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
00:20
The question is:
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌผ์–ด์•ผ ํ•  ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:
00:22
why are we still in Afghanistan
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์™œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•„์ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
00:25
one decade later?
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์‹ญ๋…„์ด ์ง€๋‚œ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:28
Why are we spending
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์™œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
00:30
$135 billion?
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1350์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
00:34
Why have we got 130,000 troops on the ground?
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์™œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 130,000๋ช…์˜ ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
00:38
Why were more people killed
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์™œ ์ €๋ฒˆ ๋‹ฌ์—
00:40
last month
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์ด๋ฒˆ ์ „์Ÿ์—์„œ
00:42
than in any preceding month
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์ฃฝ์€ ์ด ์ธ์›๋ณด๋‹ค
00:44
of this conflict?
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๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์ฃฝ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
00:46
How has this happened?
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์ด ์ผ์€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
00:48
The last 20 years
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์ง€๋‚œ 20๋…„ ๊ฐ„์€
00:51
has been the age of intervention,
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์นจ๋žต์˜ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์˜€๊ณ 
00:54
and Afghanistan is simply one act
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์€
00:57
in a five-act tragedy.
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5๊ฐœ์˜ ๋น„๊ทน ์ค‘ ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€์— ๋ถˆ๊ณผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:59
We came out of the end of the Cold War
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ ˆ๋งํ•˜๋ฉฐ
01:02
in despair.
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๋ƒ‰์ „์„ ๋๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:04
We faced Rwanda;
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฅด์™„๋‹ค๋ฅผ ์ง๋ฉดํ–ˆ๊ณ 
01:06
we faced Bosnia,
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๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„๋ฅผ ์ง๋ฉดํ–ˆ๊ณ 
01:08
and then we rediscovered our confidence.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ž์‹ ๊ฐ์„ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:11
In the third act, we went into Bosnia and Kosovo
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์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„์™€ ์ฝ”์†Œ๋ณด์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ”๊ณ 
01:14
and we seemed to succeed.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ณด์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:17
In the fourth act, with our hubris,
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๋„ค๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ž๋งŒ์‹ฌ,
01:19
our overconfidence developing,
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๊ณผํ•œ ์ž์‹ ๊ฐ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ 
01:21
we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan,
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์ด๋ผํฌ์™€ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์„ ์นจ์ž…ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:24
and in the fifth act,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ๋Š” ๋‹ค์„ฏ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ
01:26
we plunged into a humiliating mess.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋„ ๋ถ€๋„๋Ÿฌ์šด ์—‰๋ง์ง„์ฐฝ์ธ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ์ง๋ฉดํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:30
So the question is: What are we doing?
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฌด์–ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
01:33
Why are we still stuck in Afghanistan?
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์™œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•„์ง ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์— ๊ฐ‡ํ˜€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
01:36
And the answer, of course,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€
01:38
that we keep being given
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๋“ค์€ ๋Œ€๋‹ต์€, ๋ฌผ๋ก ,
01:40
is as follows:
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๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:42
we're told that we went into Afghanistan
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ„ ์ด์œ ๋Š”
01:44
because of 9/11,
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9/11 ํ…Œ๋Ÿฌ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋“ค์–ด์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:46
and that we remain there
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ๊ณณ์— ์•„์ง ๋จธ๋ฌด๋ฅด๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š”
01:48
because the Taliban poses an existential threat
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ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด ์•„์ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์•ˆ๋ณด์—
01:50
to global security.
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์‹ค์ œ์ ์ธ ์œ„ํ˜‘์„ ์ฃผ๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:52
In the words of President Obama,
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์˜ค๋ฐ”๋งˆ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์˜ ๋ง์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด
01:55
"If the Taliban take over again,
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"๋งŒ์•ฝ ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ •๊ถŒ์„ ์žก๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
01:57
they will invite back Al-Qaeda,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋งŽ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์ฃฝ์ด๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•  ์•Œ์นด์—๋‹ค๋ฅผ
01:59
who will try to kill as many of our people
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋งŒํผ
02:02
as they possibly can."
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์ดˆ๋Œ€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
02:05
The story that we're told
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋“ค์–ด์˜จ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋Š”
02:07
is that there was a "light footprint" initially --
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๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์šด ๋ฐœ์ž๊ตญ์ด ์ฒ˜์Œ์— ์กด์žฌํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:09
in other words, that we ended up in a situation
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•˜์ž๋ฉด, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€
02:11
where we didn't have enough troops,
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์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์ด ์—†๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ๋๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ
02:13
we didn't have enough resources,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ์ž์›์ด ์—†์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
02:15
that Afghans were frustrated --
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ขŒ์ ˆํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:17
they felt there wasn't enough progress
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์ง„๋ณด์™€
02:19
and economic development and security,
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์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ, ์•ˆ๋ณด๊ฐ€ ์—†์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
02:22
and therefore the Taliban came back --
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ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋Œ์•„์™”๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:24
that we responded in 2005 and 2006
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 2005๋…„๊ณผ 2006๋…„์— ๊ทธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
02:27
with troop deployments,
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๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ต๋ณ€ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
02:29
but we still didn't put enough troops on the ground.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•„์ง๋„ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์„ ๋‚ด๋ ค๋†“์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:33
And that it wasn't until 2009,
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2009๋…„์ด ๋˜์–ด์„œ์•ผ
02:36
when President Obama signed off on a surge,
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์˜ค๋ฐ”๋งˆ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์€
02:39
that we finally had,
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๊ตญ๋ฌด์žฅ๊ด€ ํด๋ฆฐํ„ด์˜ ๋ง์„ ๋นŒ๋ ค
02:41
in the words of Secretary Clinton,
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๋Œ€๋‹ตํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:43
"the strategy, the leadership and the resources."
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"์ „๋žต, ๋ฆฌ๋”์‹ญ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ž์›,"
02:46
So, as the president now reassures us,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ํ™•์‹ ์‹œํ‚ค๋“ฏ์ด
02:49
we are on track to achieve our goals.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ถค๋„์— ์•ˆ์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฌ๋ผํƒ”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:54
All of this is wrong.
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์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์€ ํ‹€๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:57
Every one of those statements is wrong.
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์œ„์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ง์€ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ๊ฐ™์ด ๋‹ค ํ‹€๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:01
Afghanistan does not
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์€
03:03
pose an existential threat
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ์•ˆ๋ณด์— ์‹ค์ œ์ ์ธ ์œ„ํ˜‘์„
03:05
to global security.
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๋ผ์น˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:07
It is extremely unlikely
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ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ •๊ถŒ์„ ์žก๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์˜ ํ™•๋ฅ 
03:09
the Taliban would ever be able to take over the country --
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์ฆ‰ ์นด๋ถˆ์„ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์† ์•ˆ์— ๋„ฃ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์˜ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€
03:12
extremely unlikely they'd be able to seize Kabul.
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๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๋‚ฎ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:14
They simply don't have a conventional military option.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ์ € ์ „ํ†ต์ ์ธ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ์  ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:17
And even if they were able to do so, even if I'm wrong,
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๋˜ํ•œ ๊ทธ ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ „์ œํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„, ์ฆ‰ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ‹€๋ฆฌ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„,
03:20
it's extremely unlikely
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ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด ์•Œ์นด์—๋‹ค๋ฅผ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ดˆ๋Œ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€
03:22
the Taliban would invite back Al-Qaeda.
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๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๋‚ฎ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:24
From the Taliban's point of view,
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ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ด€์ ์—์„œ ๋ดค์„ ๋•Œ
03:26
that was their number one mistake last time.
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์•Œ์นด์—๋‹ค๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์— ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ €์ง€๋ฅธ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์‹ค์ˆ˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:29
If they hadn't invited back Al-Qaeda,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์•Œ์นด์—๋‹ค๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๋Œ€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋”๋ผ๋ฉด
03:31
they would still be in power today.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์•„์ง ํž˜์„ ์ง€๋‹ˆ๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:34
And even if I'm wrong about those two things,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ๋‘๊ฐ€์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ‹€๋ ธ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„
03:36
even if they were able to take back the country,
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์ฆ‰, ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ •๊ถŒ์„ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์žก์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„
03:38
even if they were to invite back Al-Qaeda,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์•Œ์นด์—๋‹ค๋ฅผ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ดˆ๋Œ€ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„
03:41
it's extremely unlikely
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์•Œ์นด์—๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋˜๋Š” ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์„
03:43
that Al-Qaeda would significantly enhance
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์†์ƒ์‹œํ‚ฌ ๋งŒํผ์˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ–๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์˜ ํ™•๋ฅ ์€
03:45
its ability to harm the United States
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๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ
03:47
or harm Europe.
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๋‚ฎ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:50
Because this isn't the 1990s anymore.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ๋” ์ด์ƒ 1990๋…„๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:52
If the Al-Qaeda base
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์•Œ์นด์—๋‹ค์˜ ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ์บ ํ”„๊ฐ€
03:54
was to be established near Ghazni,
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๊ฐ€์ฆˆ๋‹ˆ (Ghazni) ๊ทผ์ฒ˜์— ์„ธ์›Œ์ง„๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋ฉด
03:56
we would hit them very hard,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ณต๊ฒฉํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
03:58
and it would be very, very difficult
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ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜์—ฌ๊ธˆ ๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
04:00
for the Taliban to protect them.
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๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ํž˜๋“ค ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:02
Furthermore, it's simply not true
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๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€์„œ, ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ์ผ๋“ค์ด
04:05
that what went wrong in Afghanistan
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๊ทธ์ € ๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์šด ๋ฐœ์ž๊ตญ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€
04:07
is the light footprint.
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์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:09
In my experience, in fact,
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์ €์˜ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์‚ฌ์‹ค,
04:11
the light footprint was extremely helpful.
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๊ทธ ๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์šด ๋ฐœ์ž๊ตญ์€ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๋„์›€์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:15
And these troops that we brought in --
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋“ค์—ฌ์˜จ ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์€ --
04:18
it's a great picture of David Beckham
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-- ๊ธฐ๊ด€๋‹จ์ด ์œ„์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐ์ด๋น„๋“œ ๋ฒ ์ปด์˜ ์‚ฌ์ง„์€
04:20
there on the sub-machine gun --
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๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๋ฉ‹์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค --
04:22
made the situation worse, not better.
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-- ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋” ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์ง€ ์ข‹๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค์ง„ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:25
When I walked across Afghanistan
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2001๋…„ 2002๋…„ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๊ฒจ์šธ์—
04:27
in the winter of 2001-2002,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์„ ๋ณด์•˜์„ ๋•Œ
04:30
what I saw was scenes like this.
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์ €๋Š” ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ๋˜์—ˆ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:32
A girl, if you're lucky,
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์–ด๋‘์šด ๋ฐฉ ์•ˆ์˜ ๊ตฌ์„ ์ž๋ฆฌ์—์„œ
04:34
in the corner of a dark room --
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์ฝ”๋ž€์„ ์ฝ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์ž‡์„ ์ •๋„๋กœ ์šด์ด ์ข‹์€
04:36
lucky to be able to look at the Koran.
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ํ•œ ์†Œ๋…€๋ฅผ ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:39
But in those early days
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ๊ณผ
04:41
when we're told we didn't have enough troops and enough resources,
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์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์ž์›์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋“ค์—ˆ๋˜ ๊ทธ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์—
04:43
we made a lot of progress in Afghanistan.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ๋‚ด์—์„œ ๋งŽ์€ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ์ด๋Œ์–ด ๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:45
Within a few months,
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๋ช‡ ๋‹ฌ ์‚ฌ์ด์—
04:47
there were two and a half million more girls in school.
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ํ•™๊ต์—๋Š” 250๋งŒ๋ช…์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ์—ฌํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์ด ๋“ค์–ด์ฐผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:50
In Sangin where I was sick in 2002,
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2002๋…„์— ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์ธ (Sangin) ์—์„œ ์•„ํ”Œ ๋•Œ
04:53
the nearest health clinic
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์› ๋˜ ๋ณ‘์›์€
04:55
was within three days walk.
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๊ฑธ์–ด์„œ 3์ผ์ด ๊ฑธ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:57
Today, there are 14 health clinics
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š”,
05:00
in that area alone.
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๊ทธ ์ง€์—ญ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋งŒ ๋ณด๋”๋ผ๋„ 14๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ณ‘์›์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:02
There was amazing improvements.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ์ด๋Œ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:04
We went from almost no Afghans
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ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€์—๋Š”
05:06
having mobile telephones during the Taliban
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ์ธ๋“ค์ด ํ•ธ๋“œ ํฐ์„ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์ง€๋งŒ
05:08
to a situation where, almost overnight,
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ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š”
05:10
three million Afghans had mobile telephones.
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300๋งŒ๋ช…์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์“ธ ์ •๋„๋กœ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ์–ด ๋†“์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:14
And we had progress in the free media.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ์ž์œ  ์–ธ๋ก ์„ ๋ฐœ์ „์‹œ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:16
We had progress in elections --
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์„ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ฐœ์ „๋„ ์ด๋Œ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:18
all of this with the so-called light footprint.
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์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์ด "๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์šด ๋ฐœ์ž๊ตญ"์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:21
But when we began to bring more money,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๋ˆ์„ ๋“ค์—ฌ์˜ค๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
05:24
when we began to invest more resources,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์ž์›์„ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
05:27
things got worse, not better. How?
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๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•ด์ ธ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ๋” ๋‚˜์•„์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ์ฃ ?
05:30
Well first see, if you put 125 billion dollars a year
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์ผ๋‹จ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
05:33
into a country like Afghanistan
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด 1๋…„ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์ด 10์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์ธ ๋‚˜๋ผ์ธ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ์—
05:35
where the entire revenue of the Afghan state
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1๋…„ ๋งˆ๋‹ค
05:38
is one billion dollars a year,
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1250์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ํˆฌ์žํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ 
05:40
you drown everything.
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
05:43
It's not simply corruption and waste
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
05:45
that you create;
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๋ถ€ํŒจ์™€ ๋‚ญ๋น„ ๋ฟ๋งŒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:47
you essentially replace the priorities of the Afghan government,
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์„ ๊ฑฐ๋กœ ๋ฝ‘์•„์ง„ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ„ ์ •๋ถ€์˜
05:50
the elected Afghan government,
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์šฐ์„  ์‚ฌํ•ญ์„
05:52
with the micromanaging tendencies
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์™ธ๊ตญ์ธ๊ณผ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ๊ด€๊ด‘๊ฐ๋“ค์˜
05:54
of foreigners on short tours
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์„ธ์„ธํ•œ ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์„ ๋งž์ถ”๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ
05:57
with their own priorities.
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๋Œ€์ฒดํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:59
And the same is true for the troops.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ง€์›๋˜๋Š” ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋„ ๊ฐ™์€ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์ ์šฉ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:01
When I walked across Afghanistan,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์„ ๊ฑฐ๋‹์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
06:03
I stayed with people like this.
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:05
This is Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj.
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์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ Kamenj์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ น๊ด€์ธ Haji Malem Mohsin Khan ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:08
Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj was a great host.
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์ •๋ง ์ข‹์€ ์ฃผ์ธ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:11
He was very generous,
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๊ทธ๋Š” ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ง€๋‚ธ ๋งŽ์€ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€๋กœ
06:13
like many of the Afghans I stayed with.
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๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๋„ˆ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:15
But he was also considerably more conservative,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜, ๊ทธ๋Š” ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ๋ณด์ˆ˜์ ์ด์—ˆ๊ณ 
06:18
considerably more anti-foreign,
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์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ์™ธ๊ตญ์ธ์„ ์‹ซ์–ดํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
06:20
considerably more Islamist
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์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ์ด์Šฌ๋žŒ๊ต๋„์  ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:22
than we'd like to acknowledge.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
06:25
This man, for example, Mullah Mustafa,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด, ์ด์‚ฌ๋žŒ ๋ฌผ๋ผ ๋ฌด์Šคํƒ€ํŒŒ (Mullah Mustafa)
06:27
tried to shoot me.
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๋Š” ์ €๋ฅผ ์˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:29
And the reason I'm looking a little bit perplexed in this photograph
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด ์‚ฌ์ง„์—์„œ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋‹นํ˜น์Šค๋Ÿฌ์šด ํ‘œ์ •์„ ์ง“๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
06:32
is I was somewhat frightened,
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๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์™œ ์‚ฌ๋ง‰์—์„œ ํ•œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด๋‚˜ ๋›ฐ๊ณ 
06:34
and I was too afraid on this occasion
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์™œ ํ”ผ๋‚œ ๋ฏผ์„ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ง‘์— ๊ฑฐ๋‘์›Œ ์ฃผ๊ณ 
06:36
to ask him, having run for an hour through the desert
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์™œ ์ €์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜
06:38
and taken refuge in this house,
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์ด ์‚ฌ์ง„์„ ์ฐ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ–ˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ฌป๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
06:40
why he had turned up and wanted to have his photograph taken with me.
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์ด ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋ฌด์„ญ๊ณ  ๋‘๋ ค์› ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:44
But 18 months later, I asked him
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ 18๊ฐœ์›” ํ›„์—
06:46
why he had tried to shoot me.
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์™œ ๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์ €๋ฅผ ์˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ฌผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:48
And Mullah Mustafa -- he's the man with the pen and paper --
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฌผ๋ผ ๋ฌด์Šคํƒ€ํŒŒ(Mullah Mustafa)๋Š” -- ๊ทธ๋Š” ์ € ํŽœ๊ณผ ์ข…์ด๋ฅผ ๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค--
06:50
explained that the man sitting immediately to the left as you look at the photograph,
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์ € ์‚ฌ์ง„ ์•ˆ์—์„œ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์˜†์— ์•‰์•„ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด
06:53
Nadir Shah
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์ž์‹ ์ด ์ €๋ฅผ ์น  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์„ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์—
06:55
had bet him that he couldn't hit me.
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๋‚ด๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ด์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:58
Now this is not to say
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์ด ๋ง์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
07:00
Afghanistan is a place full of people like Mullah Mustafa.
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์€ ๋ฌผ๋ผ ๋ฌด์Šคํƒ€ํŒŒ ๊ฐ™์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๋งŒ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•จ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:03
It's not; it's a wonderful place
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์ •๋ง ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค; ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์€ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์™€ ์ง€์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”
07:06
full of incredible energy and intelligence.
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์ •๋ง ์ข‹์€ ๊ณณ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:09
But it is a place
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ ๊ณณ์€
07:11
where the putting-in of the troops
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๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์ด ํˆฌ์ž… ๋จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ
07:13
has increased the violence rather than decreased it.
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ํญ๋ ฅ์ด ์ค„์–ด ๋“ค๊ธฐ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ๋งŽ์•„ ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:16
2005, Anthony Fitzherbert,
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2005๋…„์— ๋†๊ฒฝ ์—”์ง€๋‹ˆ์–ด์ธ
07:18
an agricultural engineer,
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์•ˆํ† ๋‹ˆ ํ”ผ์ธ ์–ด๋ฒ„ํŠธ (Anthony Fitzherbert)๋Š”
07:20
could travel through Helmand,
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ํ—ฌ๋งจ๋“œ (Helmand)๋ฅผ ์—ฌํ–‰ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ณ 
07:22
could stay in Nad Ali, Sangin and Ghoresh,
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๋‚˜๋“œ ์•Œ๋ฆฌ(Nad Ali), ์ƒ์ธ (Sangin), ๊ณ ๋ ˆ์‹œ (Ghoresh)์—์„œ ๋จธ๋ฌด๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:24
which are now the names of villages where fighting is taking place.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ ๊ณณ๋“ค์€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์‹ธ์›€์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ณณ๋“ค์ด์ง€์š”.
07:27
Today, he could never do that.
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ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š”, ๊ทธ๋Š” ์ ˆ๋Œ€ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:30
So the idea that we deployed the troops
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ž€์— ๋งž์„œ
07:32
to respond to the Taliban insurgency
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๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์„ ํˆฌ์ž…ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
07:34
is mistaken.
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์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:36
Rather than preceding the insurgency,
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๋ฐ˜๋ž€์„ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค
07:38
the Taliban followed the troop deployment,
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ํƒˆ๋ ˆ๋ฐ˜์€ ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ ํˆฌ์ž…์— ๋ฐ˜์‘ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:41
and as far as I'm concerned,
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์ ์–ด๋„ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ์—๋Š”
07:43
the troop deployment caused their return.
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๋ณ‘๋ ฅ ํˆฌ์ž…์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ๋Œ์•„์˜ค๊ฒŒ ํ•˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:46
Now is this a new idea?
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์ด ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ƒ๊ฐ์ธ๊ฐ€์š”?
07:48
No, there have been any number of people
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์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:50
saying this over the last seven years.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ 7๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ์ฃผ์žฅํ•ด์˜จ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:53
I ran a center at Harvard
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์ €๋Š” 2008๋…„์—์„œ 2010๋…„ ๊นŒ์ง€
07:55
from 2008 to 2010,
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ํ•˜๋ฒ„๋“œ์—์„œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ๋ฅผ ์šด์˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:57
and there were people like Michael Semple there
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ๊ณณ์—๋Š” ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ„ ๋ง์„ ์œ ์ฐฝํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๊ณ 
07:59
who speak Afghan languages fluently,
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๊ทธ ๋‚˜๋ผ์˜ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ง€๋ฐฉ์„ ๋‹ค๋…€๋ณธ
08:01
who've traveled to almost every district in the country.
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๋งˆ์ดํด ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ (Michael Semple) ๊ฐ™์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:04
Andrew Wilder, for example,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด, ์•ค๋“œ๋ฅ˜ ์œŒ๋” (Andrew Wilder)๋Š”
08:07
born on the Pakistan-Iranian border,
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ํŒŒํ‚ค์Šคํƒ„๊ณผ ์ด๋ž€์˜ ๊ตญ๊ฒฝ์—์„œ ํƒœ์–ด๋‚˜
08:10
served his whole life
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๊ทธ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ถ์„
08:12
in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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ํŒŒํ‚ค์Šคํƒ„๊ณผ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์—์„œ ๋ณด๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:14
Paul Fishstein who began working there in 1978 --
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๊ทธ ๊ณณ์—์„œ 1978๋…„ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ผํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•œ ํด ํ”ผ์Šคํ…Œ์ธ(Paul Fishstein) ์€
08:16
worked for Save the Children,
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Save the Children ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋‹จ์ฒด์—์„œ ์ผํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
08:18
ran the Afghan research and evaluation unit.
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ, ํ‰๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์„ ์šด์˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:22
These are people
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
08:24
who were able to say consistently
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๋ฐœ์ „ ๊ธฐ๊ธˆ์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€
08:26
that the increase in development aid
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์„ ๋” ์•ˆ์ „ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ ๋‹ค๊ณ 
08:28
was making Afghanistan less secure, not more secure --
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๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ ์ฃผ์žฅํ•ด์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:31
that the counter-insurgency strategy
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์ฆ‰, ๋ฐ˜-๋ฐ˜์—ญ์ ์ธ ์ „๋žต์ด
08:33
was not working and would not work.
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์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ํšจ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ณด์ด์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๊ณ  ์•ž์œผ๋กœ๋„ ํšจ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ณด์ด์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ฃผ์žฅํ•ด์˜จ ๊ฒƒ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:36
And yet, nobody listened to them.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜, ์ง€๊ธˆ ์•„๋ฌด๋„ ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ๋ง์„ ๋“ฃ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:39
Instead,
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์˜คํžˆ๋ ค,
08:41
there was a litany of astonishing optimism.
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๋†€๋ž„ ๋งŒํผ์˜ ๋‚™์ฒœ์„ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ•˜๋”๊ตฐ์š”.
08:43
Beginning in 2004,
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2004๋…„์„ ์‹œ์ž‘์œผ๋กœ
08:46
every general came in saying,
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๋ชจ๋“  ์žฅ๊ตฐ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:49
"I've inherited a dismal situation,
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"์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ์•”๋‹ดํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋ฌผ๋ ค ๋ฐ›๊ธฐ๋Š” ํ•˜์˜€์ง€๋งŒ
08:51
but finally I have the right resources and the correct strategy,
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์ €๋Š” ์•Œ๋งž๋Š” ์ž์›๊ณผ ์˜ฌ๋ฐ”๋ฅธ ์ „๋žต์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
08:54
which will deliver,"
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๊ฒฐ์ •์ ์ธ ํ•ด์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค"
08:56
in General Barno's word in 2004,
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์ด ๋ง์€ ๋ฐ”๋ฅด๋…ธ ์žฅ๊ตฐ์ด (General Barno)
08:58
the "decisive year."
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2004๋…„์— ๋งํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:00
Well guess what? It didn't.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋ง์ด์ฃ , ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:02
But it wasn't sufficient to prevent General Abuzaid saying
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์ด ๋ง์ด ํ‹€๋ ธ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ฆ๋ช…๋˜์—ˆ์Œ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  2005๋…„์—
09:05
that he had the strategy and the resources
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์•„๋ฒ„์ž์ด๋“œ ์žฅ๊ตฐ (General Abuzaid) ์žฅ๊ตฐ์ด
09:07
to deliver, in 2005,
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๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ „๋žต๊ณผ ์ž์›์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ
09:09
the "decisive year."
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"๊ฒฐ์ •์ ์ธ ํ•ด"๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ง‰์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:11
Or General David Richards to come in 2006
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๋˜๋Š” ๋ฐ์ด๋น„๋“œ ๋ฆฌ์ฐจ๋“œ ์žฅ๊ตฐ์ด 2006๋…„์—
09:14
and say he had the strategy and the resources
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์ „๋žต๊ณผ ์ž์› ๋•๋ถ„์—
09:16
to deliver the "crunch year."
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"๊ฒฐ์‹ค์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ํ•ด๋ฅผ" ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง.
09:18
Or in 2007,
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๋˜๋Š” 2007๋…„์—
09:20
the Norwegian deputy foreign minister, Espen Eide,
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๋…ธ๋ฅด์›จ์ด ์™ธ๊ต๋ถ€์žฅ๊ด€์ธ ์—์ŠคํŽœ ์•„์ด๋“œ (Espen Eide)๊ฐ€
09:23
to say that that would deliver the "decisive year."
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์ „๋žต๊ณผ ์ž์›์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋ฉด "๊ฒฐ์ •์ ์ธ ํ•ด"๋ฅผ ์ด๋Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ.
09:26
Or in 2008, Major General Champoux
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๋˜๋Š” 2008๋…„์— ์žฅ๊ตฐ ์ฑ”ํญ์Šค (Champoux)
09:28
to come in and say he would deliver the "decisive year."
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๊ทธ๊ฐ€ "๊ฒฐ์ •์ ์ธ ํ•ด"๋ฅผ ์ด๋Œ๊ฒ ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ.
09:31
Or in 2009, my great friend,
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๋˜๋Š” 2009๋…„์— ์ œ ์นœ๊ตฌ์ธ
09:33
General Stanley McChrystal,
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์žฅ๊ตฐ ์Šคํƒ ๋ฆฌ ๋งคํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šคํƒˆ (Stanley McChrystal)์ด
09:35
who said that he was "knee-deep in the decisive year."
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"๊ฒฐ์ •์ ์ธ ํ•ด"์— ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋„๋‹ฌํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ.
09:38
Or in 2010,
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๋˜๋Š” 2010๋…„์—
09:40
the U.K. foreign secretary, David Miliband,
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์˜๊ตญ ์™ธ๊ต์žฅ๊ด€์ธ ๋ฐ์ด๋น„๋“œ ๋ฐ€๋ฆฌ๋ฐด๋“œ (David Miliband)์ด
09:43
who said that at last we would deliver the "decisive year."
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ์€ "๊ฒฐ์ •์ ์ธ ํ•ด"๋ฅผ ์ด๋Œ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ.
09:46
And you'll be delighted to hear in 2011, today,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  2011๋…„, ํ˜„์žฌ์—
09:49
that Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister,
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๋…์ผ ์™ธ๊ต๋ถ€์žฅ๊ด€์ธ ๊ตฌ์ด๋„ ์›จ์ŠคํŠธ์›ฐ (Guido Westerwelle)์ด
09:52
assures us that we are in the "decisive year."
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์ง€๊ธˆ "๊ฒฐ์ •์ ์ธ ํ•ด" ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ™•์ •์ง“๋Š” ๊ฒƒ.
09:57
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
10:03
How do we allow
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
10:05
any of this to happen?
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์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋„๋ก ํ—ˆ๋ฝํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
10:07
Well the answer, of course, is,
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๊ทธ์•ผ ๋ฌผ๋ก 
10:09
if you spend 125 billion or 130 billion
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด 1๋…„์— ํ•œ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด
10:11
dollars a year in a country,
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1250์–ต ํ˜น์€ 1300์–ต์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ 
10:14
you co-opt almost everybody.
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์›์กฐ ๋‹จ์ฒด๋“ค์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„
10:16
Even the aid agencies,
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๋Œ์–ด๋“ค์ด๋ฉด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:18
who begin to receive an enormous amount of money
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-- ์›์กฐ๋‹จ์ฒด๋“ค์€ ํ•™๊ต๋ฅผ ์ง“๊ณ  ๋ณ‘์›์„ ์ง€์–ด์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•ฝ์†ํ•˜๊ณ 
10:20
from the U.S. and the European governments
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์ •๋ถ€๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
10:22
to build schools and clinics,
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๋ง‰๋Œ€ํ•œ ์–‘์˜ ๋ˆ์„ ์ง€๊ธ‰๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค --
10:24
are somewhat disinclined
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์›์กฐ ๋‹จ์ฒด๋“ค์€
10:26
to challenge the idea
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์•ˆ๋ณด์—
10:28
that Afghanistan is an existential threat
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์‹ค์ œ์ ์ธ ์œ„ํ˜‘์„ ์ง€๋‹ˆ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์—
10:30
to global security.
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์ด์˜๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‚ด์ผœํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:32
They're worried, in other words,
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•˜์ž๋ฉด, ๊ทธ๋“ค์€
10:34
that if anybody believes that it wasn't such a threat --
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์˜ฅ์ŠคํŒœ (Oxfam), Save the Children ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
10:36
Oxfam, Save the Children
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์ด ํฐ ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ์œผ๋ฉด
10:38
wouldn't get the money
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๋ณ‘์›๊ณผ ํ•™๊ต๋ฅผ ์ง€์„
10:40
to build their hospitals and schools.
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๋ˆ์„ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ฑฑ์ •๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:42
It's also very difficult to confront a general
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๋˜ํ•œ, ๋งŽ์€ ํ›ˆ์žฅ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์žฅ๊ตฐ๋“ค์„
10:44
with medals on his chest.
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๋งž์„œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ์–ด๋ ต๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:46
It's very difficult for a politician,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ๋งž์„œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ •์น˜์ธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋„ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ํž˜๋“ ๋ฐ
10:49
because you're afraid that many lives have been lost in vain.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ํ—›๋˜์ด ์ฃฝ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋‘๋ ต๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:52
You feel deep, deep guilt.
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๊นŠ์€ ์ฃ„์ฑ…๊ฐ์„ ๋Š๋ผ์ฃ .
10:54
You exaggerate your fears,
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ๊ณตํฌ๊ฐ์„ ๊ณผ์žฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:57
and you're terrified about the humiliation
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๊ตด์š•๊ณผ ํŒจ๋ฐฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
11:00
of defeat.
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๊ฒ๋จน์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:02
What is the solution to this?
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์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…์€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ž…๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
11:04
Well the solution to this
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์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…์€
11:06
is we need to find a way
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€
11:08
that people like Michael Semple, or those other people,
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๋งˆ์ดํด ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ (Michael Semple)์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
11:11
who are telling the truth, who know the country,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ , ๊ทธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋ฅผ ์•Œ๊ณ ์žˆ๊ณ 
11:14
who've spent 30 years on the ground --
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30๋…„์„ ๊ทธ ๋‚˜๋ผ์—์„œ ๋ณด๋ƒˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
11:16
and most importantly of all,
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๊ฒŒ
11:18
the missing component of this --
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๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์ž˜ ์•„๋Š”
11:20
Afghans themselves,
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ์ž์‹ ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ
11:22
who understand what is going on.
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๊ธธ์„ ์—ด์–ด ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:25
We need to somehow get their message
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ๋“  ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๋ฅผ
11:28
to the policymakers.
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๋ฒ•์„ ์ œ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ „๋‹ฌํ•ด์ฃผ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:30
And this is very difficult to do
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ์ผ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ฒด๊ณ„ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
11:32
because of our structures.
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๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:34
The first thing we need to change
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋จผ์ € ๋ฐ”๊ฟ”์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์€
11:36
is the structures of our government.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ •๋ถ€ ์ฒด๊ณ„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:38
Very, very sadly,
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์•„์ฃผ, ์•„์ฃผ ์Šฌํ”„๊ฒŒ๋„
11:40
our foreign services, the United Nations,
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์™ธ๊ตญ์— ํŒŒ๊ฒฌ๋œ ๊ตฐ์ธ๋“ค
11:42
the military in these countries
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์œ ์—”๊ตฐ๋“ค์€
11:44
have very little idea of what's going on.
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๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์ž˜ ์•Œ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:46
The average British soldier is on a tour of only six months;
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ํ‰๊ท ์ ์ธ ์˜๊ตญ ๊ตฐ์ธ์€ 6๊ฐœ์›”๋งŒ ํŒŒ๊ฒฌ๋˜๊ณ 
11:49
Italian soldiers, on tours of four months;
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์ดํƒˆ๋ฆฌ์•„ ๊ตฐ์ธ์€ 4๊ฐœ์›”,
11:52
the American military, on tours of 12 months.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตฐ์ธ์€ 12๊ฐœ์›” ๋™์•ˆ๋งŒ ํŒŒ๊ฒฌ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:55
Diplomats are locked in embassy compounds.
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์™ธ๊ต๊ด€๋“ค์€ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ๊ด€์—๋งŒ ๊ฐ‡ํ˜€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:58
When they go out, they travel in these curious armored vehicles
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋ฐ–์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๊ฐˆ ๋•Œ๋ฉด ๋ฌด์žฅ๋œ ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ํƒ€๊ณ 
12:01
with these somewhat threatening security teams
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24์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํ•ญ์ƒ ๊ทผ๋ฌด ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์ค‘์ธ
12:04
who ready 24 hours in advance
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๊ฒฝํ˜ธ๊ด€๋“ค์˜ ๋ณดํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:06
who say you can only stay on the ground for an hour.
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์™ธ๊ต๊ด€๋“ค์€ ๊ฒฝํ˜ธ๊ด€์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐ–์—๋Š” 1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋ฐ–์— ์žˆ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์„ ๋“ฃ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:08
In the British embassy in Afghanistan
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2008๋…„์—
12:10
in 2008,
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์— ์žˆ๋Š” 350๋ช…์ด ์ผํ•˜๋Š”
12:12
an embassy of 350 people,
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์˜๊ตญ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ๊ด€์—์„œ
12:14
there were only three people who could speak Dari,
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งŽ์ด ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ์–ธ์–ด์ธ
12:17
the main language of Afghanistan, at a decent level.
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๋‹ค๋ฆฌ์–ด(่ชž) ๋ฅผ ์ ๋‹นํžˆ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ์„ธ๋ช… ๋ฟ์ด ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:20
And there was not a single Pashto speaker.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํŒŒ์Šˆํ† ์–ด(่ชž) (์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์˜ ๊ณต์‹์–ธ์–ด)๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์ž‡๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ๋‹จ ํ•œ๋ช…๋„ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:23
In the Afghan section in London
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์„ ํ†ต์น˜ํ•ด์•ผํ•˜๋Š”
12:26
responsible for governing Afghan policy on the ground,
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๋Ÿฐ๋˜์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ๋‹ด๋‹น ๋ถ€์ฒ˜์—
12:29
I was told last year
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,์ž‘๋…„์—
12:31
that there was not a single staff member
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋“ฃ๊ธฐ๋กœ๋Š”,
12:33
of the foreign office in that section
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์—์„œ
12:36
who had ever served
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์ผํ•ด ๋ณธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€
12:38
on a posting in Afghanistan.
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์•„๋ฌด๋„ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:40
So we need to change that institutional culture.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๊ด€์ ์ธ ๋ฌธํ™”๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ”์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:42
And I could make the same points about the United States
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์œ ์—”์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋„
12:45
and the United Nations.
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๊ฐ™์€ ๋ง์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:47
Secondly, we need to aim off of the optimism of the generals.
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๋‘˜์งธ, ์žฅ๊ตฐ๋“ค์€ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋ฒ„๋ ค์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:50
We need to make sure that we're a little bit suspicious,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋” ์˜ํ˜น์„ ๊ฐ€์ ธ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:53
that we understand that optimism
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‚™๊ด€ ์ฃผ์˜๋ฅผ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
12:55
is in the DNA of the military,
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๊ตฐ๋Œ€์˜ DNA์ด๋ฉฐ
12:57
that we don't respond to it
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
12:59
with quite as much alacrity.
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๋ฏผ์ฒฉํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:01
And thirdly, we need to have some humility.
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์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๊ฒธ์†ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:04
We need to begin from the position
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด์ œ
13:06
that our knowledge, our power,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ง€์‹, ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ,
13:08
our legitimacy
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์ •๋‹น์„ฑ์€
13:10
is limited.
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๋ชจ๋‘ ์ œํ•œ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฐ€์ • ํ•˜์—์„œ ํ–‰๋™ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:12
This doesn't mean
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์„ธ์ƒ์— ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ผ์— ๊ฐœ์ž…ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
13:14
that intervention around the world is a disaster.
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์žฌ์•™์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:16
It isn't.
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์ ˆ๋Œ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:18
Bosnia and Kosovo
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๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„์™€ ์ฝ”์†Œ๋ณด์—์„œ
13:20
were signal successes,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ท€์ค‘ํ•œ ์„ฑ๊ณต์„ ๊ฑฐ๋‘์—ˆ๊ณ 
13:22
great successes.
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๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ์„ฑ๊ณต์„ ๊ฑฐ๋‘์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:25
Today when you go to Bosnia
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์ง€๊ธˆ๋„ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„์— ๊ฐ€์„œ ๋ณธ๋‹ค๋ฉด
13:27
it is almost impossible to believe
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์ด ๊ณณ์—์„œ 1990๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดˆ์— ์–ด๋–ค ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋Š”์ง€
13:29
that what we saw in the early 1990s happened.
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์ƒ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:33
It's almost impossible to believe the progress we've made
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 1994๋…„ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ด๋ค„๋‚ธ ์„ฑ๊ณผ๋Š”
13:36
since 1994.
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ฏฟ๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ค ์ •๋„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:39
Refugee return,
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์œ ์—”์ธ๊ถŒ์œ„์›ํšŒ๊ฐ€
13:41
which the United Nations High Commission for Refugees
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ์—
13:43
thought would be extremely unlikely,
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ–ˆ๋˜ ํ”ผ๋‚œ์ฒ˜ ๊ท€ํ™˜์€
13:45
has largely happened.
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์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:47
A million properties have been returned.
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100๋งŒ ๊ฐœ์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ์žฌ์‚ฐ์ด ๋Œ์•„์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:49
Borders between the Bosniak territory
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๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„์˜ ์˜์—ญ๊ณผ ๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„-์„ธ๋ฅด๋น„์•„์— ๊ฑธ์ณ์žˆ๋Š” ์˜์—ญ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜
13:51
and the Bosnian-Serb territory have calmed down.
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๊ตญ๊ฒฝ์€ ์•ˆ์ •๋˜์–ด ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:54
The national army has shrunk.
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๊ตญ๊ตฐ ๋˜ํ•œ ์ค„์–ด๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:57
The crime rates in Bosnia today
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ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„์˜ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์œจ์€
13:59
are lower than they are in Sweden.
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์Šค์›จ๋ด์˜ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์œจ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:03
This has been done
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์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์€
14:05
by an incredible, principled effort
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๊ตญ์ œ ์‚ฌํšŒ์˜
14:08
by the international community,
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ, ์›์น™์— ์ž…๊ฐํ•œ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์ธ๋ฐ
14:10
and, of course, above all,
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๋ฌผ๋ก 
14:12
by Bosnians themselves.
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๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„์ธ ์ž์‹ ๋“ค์˜ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ์ปธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:14
But you need to look at context.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ด ์ผ๋“ค์˜ ์ „ํ›„๋งฅ๋ฝ์„ ๋ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:16
And this is what we've lost in Afghanistan and Iraq.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„๊ณผ ์ด๋ผํฌ์—์„œ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด ์ „ํ›„๋งฅ๋ฝ์„ ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:19
You need to understand that in those places
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ณณ์—์„œ
14:21
what really mattered
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์ •๋ง๋กœ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
14:23
was, firstly, the role of Tudman and Milosevic
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ํ„ฐ๋“œ๋งŒ (Tudman)๊ณผ ๋ฐ€๋กœ ์…ฐ๋น„์น˜ (Milosevic)๊ฐ€
14:25
in coming to the agreement,
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ํ•ฉ์˜์— ์ด๋ฅด๋Š” ๋ฐ์— ์žˆ์–ด์„œ ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์—ญํ• ๊ณผ
14:27
and then the fact those men went,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ ๊ณณ์— ๊ฐ€์„œ
14:30
that the regional situation improved,
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์ง€์—ญ์  ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋‚ซ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๊ณ 
14:32
that the European Union could offer Bosnia
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EU๊ฐ€ ๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„์—
14:35
something extraordinary:
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๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์š”๊ตฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
14:37
the chance to be part
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์ด๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํด๋Ÿฝ์˜
14:39
of a new thing, a new club,
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์ผ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ธฐํšŒ
14:41
a chance to join something bigger.
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๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€ ํฐ ๊ฒƒ์— ๋‚„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐํšŒ๋ฅผ ๋ง์ด๋‹ค.
14:44
And finally, we need to understand that in Bosnia and Kosovo,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„์™€ ์ฝ”์†Œ๋ณด์—์„œ
14:47
a lot of the secret of what we did,
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ํ–ˆ๋˜ ์ผ์„ ์ดํ•ดํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ
14:49
a lot of the secret of our success,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•œ ์ผ ๋˜ํ•œ
14:51
was our humility --
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ฒธ์†์ž„์„
14:53
was the tentative nature of our engagement.
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์•Œ์•„์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:56
We criticized people a lot in Bosnia
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ณด์Šค๋‹ˆ์•„์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„
14:58
for being quite slow to take on war criminals.
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์ „์Ÿ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ๋Œ€์ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๊ฑธ๋ ธ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋น„๋‚œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:00
We criticized them
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
15:02
for being quite slow to return refugees.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋‚œ๋ฏผ ์ƒํƒœ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋ฐ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๊ฑธ๋ ธ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋น„๋‚œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:04
But that slowness, that caution,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋“ค, ์กฐ์‹ฌํ•จ,
15:06
the fact that President Clinton initially said
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์ „ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น ํด๋ฆฐํŠผ์ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•œ
15:09
that American troops would only be deployed for a year,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ตฐ๋Œ€๋Š” 1๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ํŒŒ๊ฒฌ๋˜์–ด ์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์€
15:11
turned out to be a strength,
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ํž˜์ด ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ 
15:13
and it helped us to put our priorities right.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์šฐ์„  ์ˆœ์œ„๋ฅผ ์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋งค๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋ฐ์— ๋„์›€์„ ์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:16
One of the saddest things
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์ค‘
15:18
about our involvement in Afghanistan
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์Šฌํ”ˆ ๊ฒƒ์€
15:20
is that we've got our priorities out of sync.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์šฐ์„  ์ˆœ์œ„๋Š” ํ˜„์‹ค๊ณผ ๋งž์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค.
15:22
We're not matching our resources to our priorities.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ž์›๊ณผ ์šฐ์„  ์ˆœ์œ„๋ฅผ ์กฐํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:25
Because if what we're interested in is terrorism,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ…Œ๋Ÿฌ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์— ๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
15:28
Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan.
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์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ํŒŒํ‚ค์Šคํƒ„์ด ํ›จ์”ฌ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:31
If what we're interested in is regional stability,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€์—ญ ์•ˆ์ •์— ๋” ๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
15:33
Egypt is far more important.
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์ด์ง‘ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ํ›จ์”ฌ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:35
If what we're worried about is poverty and development,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๋‚œ, ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
15:38
sub-Saharan Africa is far more important.
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์„œ๋ธŒ์‚ฌํ•˜๋ผ ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด๊ฐ€ ํ›จ์”ฌ ์ค‘์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:41
This doesn't mean that Afghanistan doesn't matter,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์€ ์ƒ๊ด€์„ ์•ˆ ์จ๋„ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋œป์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:44
but that it's one of 40 countries in the world
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๊ทธ์ € ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋„์™€ ์ฃผ์–ด์•ผ ํ• 
15:46
with which we need to engage.
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40๊ฐœ์˜ ๋‚˜๋ผ ์ค‘ ํ•œ ๋‚˜๋ผ์ผ ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:48
So if I can finish with a metaphor for intervention,
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐœ์ž…์ด๋ผ๋Š” ํ˜•์‹์„ ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
15:52
what we need to think of
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"์‚ฐ ๊ตฌ์กฐ (Mountain rescue)" ์™€ ๊ฐ™์€
15:55
is something like mountain rescue.
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๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋“ค์„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์•„์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:58
Why mountain rescue?
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์™œ "์‚ฐ ๊ตฌ์กฐ" ์ด๋ƒ๊ตฌ์š”?
16:00
Because when people talk about intervention,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฐœ์ž…์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉด
16:03
they imagine that some scientific theory --
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๊ณผํ•™์ ์ธ ํ•™์„ค์ด ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์ด ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค.
16:05
the Rand Corporation goes around
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๊ณผํ•™์ ์ธ ํ•™์„ค์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋ฉด Rand Corporation์ด
16:07
counting 43 previous insurgencies
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43๊ฐœ์˜ ํญ๋™์„ ๋ณด๊ณ 
16:10
producing mathematical formula
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๋‹น์‹ ๋“ค์€ 20๋ช… ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ
16:12
saying you need one trained counter-insurgent
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ํ•œ ๊ฐœ์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐ˜๋ž€์„ ์ผ์œผ์ผœ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š”
16:14
for every 20 members of the population.
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์ˆ˜์‹์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:17
This is the wrong way of looking at it.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ํ‹€๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:19
You need to look at it in the way that you look at mountain rescue.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ "์‚ฐ ๊ตฌ์กฐ"๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋“ฏ์ด ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:22
When you're doing mountain rescue,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์‚ฐ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
16:24
you don't take a doctorate in mountain rescue,
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์‚ฐ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐ•์‚ฌํ•™์œ„๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
16:27
you look for somebody who knows the terrain.
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๊ทธ ์ฃผ๋ณ€ ์ง€์—ญ์„ ์ž˜ ์•„๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚˜์„ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:30
It's about context.
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์ด ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋งฅ๋ฝ๊ณผ ์ „ํ›„ ์‚ฌ์ •์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:32
You understand that you can prepare,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ค€๋น„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์•„์•ผ ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
16:34
but the amount of preparation you can do
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ค€๋น„์˜ ์–‘์€
16:36
is limited --
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์ œํ•œ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:38
you can take some water, you can have a map,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๋ฌผ์„ ์ฑ™๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์ง€๋„๋ฅผ ์ฑ™๊ธฐ๊ณ 
16:40
you can have a pack.
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๊ฐ€๋ฐฉ์„ ์ฑ™๊ธธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:42
But what really matters
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ •๋ง ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์€
16:44
is two kinds of problems --
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์•„๋ž˜์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‘๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:46
problems that occur on the mountain
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1) ์‚ฐ ์œ„์— ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ
16:48
which you couldn't anticipate,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๋ฌธ์ œ
16:50
such as, for example, ice on a slope,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ์‚ฐ ์œ„์— ์–ผ์Œ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
16:53
but which you can get around,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:55
and problems which you couldn't anticipate
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๋˜ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๊ณ 
16:58
and which you can't get around,
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ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š”
17:00
like a sudden blizzard or an avalanche
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๊ฐ‘์ž‘์Šค๋Ÿฌ์šด ๋Œํ’์ด๋‚˜ ๋ˆˆ์‚ฌํƒœ ํ˜น์€
17:02
or a change in the weather.
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๋‚ ์”จ ๋ณ€ํ™” ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:04
And the key to this
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
17:06
is a guide who has been on that mountain,
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์‚ฐ ์œ„์—์„œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์˜จ๋„๋ฅผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•œ
17:09
in every temperature,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ์•Œ์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:11
at every period --
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์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜
17:13
a guide who, above all,
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์–ด๋Š ์‹œ๊ฐ„์— ๋ฐ‘์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋‚ด๋ ค ์™€์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ์•„๋Š”
17:15
knows when to turn back,
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๊ฐ€์ด๋“œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ 
17:17
who doesn't press on relentlessly
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๊ทธ ๊ฐ€์ด๋“œ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ์ž์‹ ์„ ์™ธ๋ฉดํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„
17:19
when conditions turn against them.
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๋ˆ์งˆ๊ธฐ๊ฒŒ ๋ถ™์žก๊ณ  ๋Š˜์–ด์ ธ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:21
What we look for
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€
17:23
in firemen, in climbers, in policemen,
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์†Œ๋ฐฉ๊ด€, ๋“ฑ๋ฐ˜๊ฐ€, ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ์ฐพ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
17:26
and what we should look for in intervention,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๋Šฅ์ ์ธ ์œ„ํ—˜ ๊ฐ์ˆ˜์ž๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์—์„œ
17:28
is intelligent risk takers --
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ์ž…ํ•  ๋•Œ ์‹ ๊ฒฝ์จ์•ผ ํ•  ํ•ญ๋ชฉ๋“ค๊ณผ ๋™์ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:30
not people who plunge blind off a cliff,
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์•ž์„ ์ž˜ ๋ณด์ง€ ๋ชปํ•ด ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ์—์„œ ๋–จ์–ด์ง€๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
17:33
not people who jump into a burning room,
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๋ถˆํƒ€๋Š” ๋ฐฉ ์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ ๋›ฐ์–ด ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ํฌํ•จํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ 
17:36
but who weigh their risks,
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์œ„ํ—˜์„ฑ์„ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ ํ•ด๋ณด๊ณ 
17:38
weigh their responsibilities.
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์ฑ…์ž„์„ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:40
Because the worst thing we have done in Afghanistan
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•„ํ”„๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ์Šคํƒ„์—์„œ ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋‚˜์œ
17:43
is this idea
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์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋Š”
17:45
that failure is not an option.
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์‹คํŒจ๋Š” ์„ ํƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:48
It makes failure invisible,
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๊ทธ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋Š” ์‹คํŒจ๋ฅผ ๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด์ด์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๊ณ 
17:51
inconceivable and inevitable.
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์ƒ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์—†๊ณ  ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์—†๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:54
And if we can resist
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด ๋ฏธ์นœ ์Šฌ๋กœ๊ฑด์„
17:56
this crazy slogan,
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๊ฒฌ๋”œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
17:58
we shall discover --
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:00
in Egypt, in Syria, in Libya,
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์ด์ง‘ํŠธ, ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์•„, ๋ฆฌ๋น„์•„
18:02
and anywhere else we go in the world --
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ํ˜น์€ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์–ด๋Š ๊ณณ์ด๋“ 
18:05
that if we can often do much less than we pretend,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์—ฐ๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋ชป ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
18:08
we can do much more than we fear.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‘๋ ค์›Œ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:12
Thank you very much.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:14
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
18:16
Thank you. Thank you very much.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:19
Thank you. Thank you very much.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:22
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:26
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
18:34
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:36
Thank you. Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:38
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:40
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
18:42
Bruno Giussani: Rory, you mentioned Libya at the end.
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๋กœ๋ฆฌ, ๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๋ฆฌ๋น„์•„์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:45
Just briefly, what's your take on the current events there
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๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฆฌ๋น„์•„์˜ ํ˜„์žฌ ์ƒํ™ฉ๊ณผ
18:48
and the intervention?
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๊ฐœ์ž…์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์„ธ์š”?
18:50
Rory Stewart: Okay, I think Libya poses the classic problem.
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๋„ค. ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์— ๋ฆฌ๋น„์•„๋Š” ์ „ํ†ต์ ์ธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:53
The problem in Libya
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๋ฆฌ๋น„์•„์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”
18:55
is that we are always pushing for the black or white.
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๋ฐฑ์ธ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ํ‘์ธ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ ์ ธ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:57
We imagine there are only two choices:
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 2๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ์„ ํƒ๋งŒ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:59
either full engagement and troop deployment
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์™„์ „ํ•œ ๊ฐœ์ž…๊ณผ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ๋ฐฐ์น˜
19:02
or total isolation.
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ํ˜น์€ ์™„์ „ํ•œ ๋ฌด๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ๊ทธ 2๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ด๋‹ค.
19:04
And we are always being tempted up to our neck.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ•ญ์ƒ ๋ชฉ ๋๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•ดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:07
We put our toes in and we go up to our neck.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:09
What we should have done in Libya
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฆฌ๋น„์•„์—์„œ ํ•ด์•ผํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์€
19:11
is we should have stuck to the U.N. resolution.
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U.N. ๊ณ„ํš์„ ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:13
We should have limited ourselves very, very strictly
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ž์‹ ์„ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ œํ•œํ–ˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:16
to the protection of the civilian population in Benghazi.
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๋ฒต์‚ฌ์ง€ (Benghazi)์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์ธ์„ ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:19
We could have done that.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ ์ผ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:21
We set up a no-fly zone within 48 hours
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํŒŒ๋ฆฌ ์—†๋Š” ๊ตฌ์—ญ 48 ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:24
because Gaddafi had no planes
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๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ์นด๋‹คํ”ผ๊ฐ€
19:26
within 48 hours.
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48์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ํ† ์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:28
Instead of which, we've allowed ourselves to be tempted
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๋Œ€์‹  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ •๊ถŒ ๋ฐ ์ œ๋„์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”์—
19:31
towards regime change.
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๋ชฉ๋ง๋ผ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:33
In doing so, we've destroyed our credibility with the Security Council,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์„œ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‹ ๋ขฐ์„ฑ์„ ํŒŒ๊ดดํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
19:37
which means it's very difficult
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์ด๋Š” ์‹œ๋ฆฌ์•„์—์„œ U.N. ๊ณ„ํš์„ ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
19:39
to get a resolution on Syria,
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๋งค์šฐ ํž˜๋“ค๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:41
and we're setting ourselves up again for failure.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋˜๋‹ค์‹œ ์‹คํŒจ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋กœ์— ๋†“๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:44
Once more, humility,
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๋˜ํ•œ, ๊ฒธ์†,
19:46
limits, honesty,
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์ œํ•œ, ์ •์ง,
19:48
realistic expectations
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ํ˜„์‹ค ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์ž๊ธˆ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ๋ผ๋ฉด
19:50
and we could have achieved something to be proud of.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฟŒ๋“ฏํ•ด ํ•  ๋งŒํ•œ ๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์„ฑ์ทจํ–ˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:52
BG: Rory, thank you very much.
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๋กœ๋ฆฌ, ์ •๋ง ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:54
RS: Thank you. (BG: Thank you.)
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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