Sean Gourley on the mathematics of war

翻译人员: Qu Wei 校对人员: Jinjing Li

We look around the media, as we see on the news from Iraq,

看看我们的媒体，新闻中播放的那些关于伊拉

Afghanistan, Sierra Leone,

阿富汗、塞拉立昂

and the conflict seems incomprehensible to us.

以及那些我们难以理解的冲突战争

And that's certainly how it seemed to me when I started this project.

当我开始这个项目时，我同样很难理解为什么会这样

But as a physicist,

但作为一名物理学者

I thought, well if you give me some data,

我想，如果给我一些数据的话

I could maybe understand this. You know, give us a go.

我也许会理解。因此，我去尝试了一下

So as a naive New Zealander

那么作为一名新西兰人

I thought, well I'll go to the Pentagon.

我想，应该去五角大楼吧！

Can you get me some information?

“能给我一些关于战争的数据吗？”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

No. So I had to think a little harder.

不行？！嗯……看来我要另想办法了

And I was watching the news one night in Oxford.

有天晚上，我在牛津大学看新闻的时候

And I looked down at the chattering heads on my channel of choice.

突然注意到电视荧幕下方

And I saw that there was information there.

有一些滚动的数据信息

There was data within the streams of news that we consume.

是关于当前所播新闻的数据信息

All this noise around us actually has information.

其实所有围绕在在我们身边的声音都是含有信息的

So what I started thinking was,

于是我想

perhaps there is something like open source intelligence here.

或许还有类似“开源”的情报信息

If we can get enough of these streams of information together,

如果我们能够收集到足够的信息

we can perhaps start to understand the war.

就能够理解战争的原因了

So this is exactly what I did. We started bringing a team together,

以上就是我要做的事情。我们于是开始组建团队

an interdisciplinary team of scientists,

一支跨学科的研究队伍

of economists, mathematicians.

包括了经济学家以及数学家

We brought these guys together and we started to try and solve this.

我们将这些人组织到一起，开始尝试解决这个问题

We did it in three steps.

我们将问题分成三步

The first step we did was to collect. We did 130 different sources of information --

第一步是收集信息。我们从130个不同的信息源

from NGO reports to newspapers and cable news.

从非官方组织报道到新闻报纸、有线电视

We brought this raw data in and we filtered it.

从中提取原始数据并加以过滤

We extracted the key bits on information to build the database.

我们提取信息中的关键数据构建数据库

That database contained

该数据库包括

the timing of attacks,

进攻时间

the location, the size and the weapons used.

位置、规模以及武器使用情况

It's all in the streams of information we consume daily,

信息全部取自于我们身边的各类媒体报道

we just have to know how to pull it out.

我们只是将它们提取并加以总结

And once we had this we could start doing some cool stuff.

一旦我们收集好这些信息后，就可以做一些有趣的分析了

What if we were to look at the distribution of the sizes of attacks?

如果我们想看看攻击规模的分布的话

What would that tell us?

那么这个能告诉我们什么呢？

So we started doing this. And you can see here

于是我们就开始了分析，看看大屏幕上这个图吧

on the horizontal axis

在横轴上

you've got the number of people killed in an attack

显示的是攻击中的死亡人数

or the size of the attack.

或者说是攻击的规模

And on the vertical axis you've got the number of attacks.

纵轴上显示的是攻击的频率

So we plot data for sample on this.

我们将一些示例放到上面

You see some sort of random distribution --

看到的是近似于随机的分布

perhaps 67 attacks, one person was killed,

大概死亡人数为1人的攻击有67次

or 47 attacks where seven people were killed.

或死亡人数为7人的攻击有47次

We did this exact same thing for Iraq.

我们对伊拉克的战争的数据做了类似的分析

And we didn't know, for Iraq what we were going to find.

但我们不知道，在关于伊拉克战争的数据中我们会发现什么

It turns out what we found was pretty surprising.

结果让我们大吃一惊

You take all of the conflict,

如果将所有的冲突

all of the chaos, all of the noise,

所有的骚乱、暴动

and out of that

全部提取出

comes this precise mathematical distribution

按照攻击规模排列显示，数据呈现出了这种分布

of the way attacks are ordered in this conflict.

按照攻击规模排列显示，数据呈现出了这种分布

This blew our mind.

结果令我们非常兴奋

Why should a conflict like Iraq have this

为什么伊拉克的冲突战争

as its fundamental signature?

会存在这样的基本特征呢？

Why should there be order in war?

为什么会产生如此的排列呢？

We didn't really understand that.

我们真的搞不懂了

We thought maybe there is something special about Iraq.

可能伊拉克战争确实存在一些特殊性吧

So we looked at a few more conflicts.

我们来看看更多的冲突战争

We looked at Colombia, we looked at Afghanistan,

这是哥伦比亚的情况、阿富汗的

and we looked at Senegal.

这是塞内加尔的

And the same pattern emerged in each conflict.

在这些冲突战争中全部呈现出相同的模式

This wasn't supposed to happen.

这本是不应该发生的！

These are different wars, with different religious factions,

这些是不同的战争，不同的信仰冲突

different political factions, and different socioeconomic problems.

不同的政治斗争，不同的社会经济问题 （所带来的战争）

And yet the fundamental patterns underlying them

但这些战争中的潜在的最根本的规率

are the same.

却是一样的

So we went a little wider.

所以我们要更进一步分析

We looked around the world at all the data we could get our hands on.

看看我们周围的世界，我么能够掌握的所有数据

From Peru to Indonesia,

从秘鲁到印度尼西亚

we studied this same pattern again.

我们发现了同样的规律

And we found that not only

结果发现不仅仅

were the distributions these straight lines,

这些直线分布

but the slope of these lines, they clustered around

而且这些线的斜率，都会围绕着

this value of alpha equals 2.5.

Alpha等于2.5这个值

And we could generate an equation

于是我们可以生成一个等式

that could predict the likelihood of an attack.

来预测攻击的可能性

What we're saying here

也就是说

is the probability of an attack killing X number of people

出现造成 X 人死亡的攻击的概率

in a country like Iraq

在类似伊朗这样的国家

is equal to a constant, times the size of that attack,

它等于一个常量，乘以攻击的规模

raised to the power of negative alpha.

的负Alpha次方

And negative alpha is the slope of that line I showed you before.

负Alpha值就是刚才展示的那条直线的斜率

So what?

怎么样？

This is data, statistics. What does it tell us about these conflicts?

这个数据统计表，能告诉我们什么？

That was a challenge we had to face as physicists.

这是我们作为物理学者所面临的挑战

How do we explain this?

我们该如何解释这个数据？

And what we really found was that alpha,

假如我们真的找出了这个Alpha值

if we think about it, is the organizational

如果我们认真思考下，这是关于

structure of the insurgency.

叛乱的组织及结构

Alpha is the distribution of the sizes of attacks,

Alpha值作为攻击规模的分布

which is really the distribution

其实反映的是

of the group strength carrying out the attacks.

发动袭击一方的强度分布

So we look at a process of group dynamics:

我们来看一个集团动态变化的过程

coalescence and fragmentation,

联合统一和各自为政

groups coming together, groups breaking apart.

合久必分，分久必和

And we start running the numbers on this. Can we simulate it?

于是我们开始加以计算。我们能模拟（出结果）吗？

Can we create the kind of patterns that we're seeing

我们是否能创造出类似于伊拉克战争中

in places like Iraq?

的规律吗？

Turns out we kind of do a reasonable job.

结果看来我们好像做了一个合理的工作

We can run these simulations.

我们可以模拟这些变化

We can recreate this using a process of group dynamics

我们可以使用集团的动态变化过程来重建这一过程

to explain the patterns that we see

来解释在我们身边的冲突战争中

all around the conflicts around the world.

所显示出的这种基础模式

So what's going on?

那么，结果如何呢？

Why should these different -- seemingly different conflicts

为什么这些看上去不同的冲突战争

have the same patterns?

会具有同样的模式呢？

Now what I believe is going on is that

现在我相信为什么了：

the insurgent forces, they evolve over time. They adapt.

叛乱部队，随着时间的推移，他们适应了

And it turns out there is only one solution

结果就只有一种解决方案

to fight a much stronger enemy.

就是与更强的敌人战斗

And if you don't find that solution as an insurgent force,

如果你找不到类似于叛乱部队这种敌人的话

you don't exist.

那么你根本就不应该存在

So every insurgent force that is ongoing,

因此每支现存的叛乱部队

every conflict that is ongoing,

每场正在进行的冲突战争

it's going to look something like this.

最后就会发展成这样

And that is what we think is happening.

这正是我们通过该模式计算后会预料的。

Taking it forward, how do we change it?

如果把眼光放长，我们如何能改变（战争）呢？

How do we end a war like Iraq?

我们怎样才能结束伊拉克战争？

What does it look like?

看这个像什么？

Alpha is the structure. It's got a stable state at 2.5.

Alpha值是结构中的关键，它的值稳定在2.5

This is what wars look like when they continue.

这是如果继续战争后所发生的情况

We've got to change that.

我们来试着调整这个值

We can push it up:

我们将它提高

the forces become more fragmented;

部队变得更加分散

there is more of them, but they are weaker.

人数变得更多，但攻击力减弱了

Or we push it down:

或者我们降低它

they're more robust; there is less groups;

他们变得更加强悍，但集团减少了

but perhaps you can sit and talk to them.

但是也许可以坐下来和他们谈判

So this graph here, I'm going to show you now.

因此这张图表，我将要展示给你们的是

No one has seen this before. This is literally

在此之前，没有人看过。

stuff that we've come through last week.

这是我们上周刚刚计算出来的。

And we see the evolution of Alpha through time.

我们能够看到Alpha值的演变过程

We see it start. And we see it grow up to the stable state

看开始时候的情况。它一直慢慢增加到稳定到2.5左右

the wars around the world look like.

正如同身边战争中的情况

And it stays there through the invasion of Fallujah

在入侵Falusia期间，Alpha值没有发生变化

until the Samarra bombings in the

直到2006年伊拉克大选时发生的

Iraqi elections of '06.

萨迈拉炸弹袭击事件

And the system gets perturbed. It moves upwards

整个系统变得越来越不安全，Alpha值

to a fragmented state.

变化到一个分散的状态

This is when the surge happens.

此时美国宣布开始向伊拉克派出增援部队

And depending on who you ask,

当然这取决谁问你

the surge was supposed to push it up even further.

理论上讲，增援应该将Alpha值进一步增高

The opposite happened.

结果相反的情况发生

The groups became stronger.

集团变得越来越强大

They became more robust.

他们变得越来越野蛮

And so I'm thinking, right, great, it's going to keep going down.

看来我猜对了。Alpha应该进一步地降低

We can talk to them. We can get a solution. The opposite happened.

我们能够与他们对话，能够商讨解决方案。结果相反的情况发生了

It's moved up again. The groups are more fragmented.

Alpha值又上升了，集团变得更加分散

And this tells me one of two things.

这张图表告诉我两件事情

Either we're back where we started

无论我们返回起点

and the surge has had no effect;

或派出增援都没有产生预期效果

or finally the groups have been fragmented to the extent

最终集团都会变得更加分散

that we can start to think about maybe moving out.

我们是否应该开始考虑撤军了

I don't know what the answer is to that.

我不知道具体的答案

But I know that we should be looking at the structure of the insurgency

但我知道我们应该好好看看叛乱的结构

to answer that question.

再来回答这个问题

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）