Sean Gourley on the mathematics of war

102,498 views ・ 2009-05-04

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: Jeong-Lan Kinser κ²€ν† : Young-ho Park
00:12
We look around the media, as we see on the news from Iraq,
0
12160
3000
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λ―Έλ””μ–΄μ—μ„œ 이라크, μ•„ν”„κ°€λ‹ˆμŠ€νƒ„ 및
00:15
Afghanistan, Sierra Leone,
1
15160
3000
μ‹œμ—λΌ λ¦¬μ˜¨μ— λŒ€ν•œ λ‰΄μŠ€λ₯Ό λ“€μ„λ•Œ
00:18
and the conflict seems incomprehensible to us.
2
18160
4000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 이 μ „μŸλ“€μ„ 이해 ν•  수 μ—†λ‹€κ³  λŠλΌμ§€μš”.
00:22
And that's certainly how it seemed to me when I started this project.
3
22160
4000
저도 이 ν”„λ‘œμ νŠΈλ₯Ό μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆμ„λ•Œ λ°”λ‘œ κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ 느꼈죠.
00:26
But as a physicist,
4
26160
2000
그런데 λ¬Όλ¦¬ν•™μžλ‘œμ„œ μ œκ°€ κ°€λ§Œνžˆ
00:28
I thought, well if you give me some data,
5
28160
3000
생각해 λ³΄λ‹ˆ μ μ ˆν•œ λ°μ΄ν„°λ§Œ 있으면 이해할 수
00:31
I could maybe understand this. You know, give us a go.
6
31160
2000
μžˆμ„μ§€ λͺ¨λ₯Έλ‹€λŠ” 생각을 ν•˜κ³  μ‹œλ„ν•΄ 보기둜 ν–ˆμ£ .
00:33
So as a naive New Zealander
7
33160
2000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μˆœμ§„ν•œ λ‰΄μ§ˆλžœλ“œ μ‚¬λžŒμΈ
00:35
I thought, well I'll go to the Pentagon.
8
35160
2000
μ €λŠ” νŽœνƒ€κ³€μœΌλ‘œ κ°€μ„œ "자료 μ’€ μ£Όμ‹€ 수
00:37
Can you get me some information?
9
37160
2000
μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?" 그러면 될지 μ•Œμ•˜μ£ .
00:39
(Laughter)
10
39160
3000
(μ›ƒμŒ)
00:42
No. So I had to think a little harder.
11
42160
4000
μ•ˆλœλ‹€κ³  ν•˜λ”κ΅°μš”. κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ’€ 더 생각을 ν•΄μ•Ό ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
00:46
And I was watching the news one night in Oxford.
12
46160
3000
μ–΄λŠλ‚  λ°€ μ˜₯μŠ€ν¬λ“œμ—μ„œ λ‰΄μŠ€λ₯Ό 보고
00:49
And I looked down at the chattering heads on my channel of choice.
13
49160
3000
μ œκ°€ μ„ νƒν•œ μ±„λ„μ—μ„œ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ ν† λ‘ ν•˜λŠ” 것을 보닀가
00:52
And I saw that there was information there.
14
52160
2000
λ°”λ‘œ 그곳에 정보가 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 것을 κΉ¨λ‹¬μ•˜μ§€μš”.
00:54
There was data within the streams of news that we consume.
15
54160
3000
맀일 μ ‘ν•˜λŠ” λ‰΄μŠ€μ— μ œκ°€ μ›ν•˜λŠ” 데이터가 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 것이죠.
00:57
All this noise around us actually has information.
16
57160
4000
미디어에 λ– λ„λŠ” μ†Œλ¦¬μ— 정보가 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:01
So what I started thinking was,
17
61160
2000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ €λŠ” λ‰΄μŠ€λ₯Ό μΌμ’…μ˜
01:03
perhaps there is something like open source intelligence here.
18
63160
3000
μ˜€ν”ˆμ†ŒμŠ€ μ •λ³΄μ²˜λ‘œ μ·¨κΈ‰ν•˜μžκ³  μƒκ°ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
01:06
If we can get enough of these streams of information together,
19
66160
3000
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이런 μ •λ³΄μ˜ 흐름을 μΆ©λΆ„νžˆ λͺ¨μ„ 수 있으면
01:09
we can perhaps start to understand the war.
20
69160
3000
μ „μŸμ„ μ΄ν•΄ν•˜κΈ° μ‹œμž‘ν•  수 μžˆμ„μ§€ λͺ¨λ₯Έλ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
01:12
So this is exactly what I did. We started bringing a team together,
21
72160
3000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ €λŠ” 그런 λ°©μ‹μœΌλ‘œ μž‘μ—…μ„ μ‹œμž‘ν•΄μ„œ
01:15
an interdisciplinary team of scientists,
22
75160
2000
κ²½μ œν•™μž, μˆ˜ν•™μž 같은 닀학문적 κ³Όν•™μžλ‘œ
01:17
of economists, mathematicians.
23
77160
3000
κ΅¬μ„±λœ νŒ€μ„ λ§Œλ“€κΈ° μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
01:20
We brought these guys together and we started to try and solve this.
24
80160
3000
우리 νŒ€μ›λ“€μ€ 이 문제λ₯Ό ν•΄κ²°ν•˜λ €κ³  μž‘μ—…μ„ μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
01:23
We did it in three steps.
25
83160
2000
μ €ν¬λ“€μ˜ μž‘μ—…μ€ μ„Έλ‹¨κ³„λ‘œ μ§„ν–‰λμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:25
The first step we did was to collect. We did 130 different sources of information --
26
85160
4000
μ²«λ‹¨κ³„λŠ” 정보 μˆ˜μ§‘μ΄μ—ˆμ£ . μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 총 130 개의 데이터 μ†ŒμŠ€λ‘œ λΆ€ν„°
01:29
from NGO reports to newspapers and cable news.
27
89160
3000
데이터λ₯Ό λͺ¨μ•˜μ§€μš”.-- NGO λ³΄κ³ μ„œ, μ‹ λ¬Έ 및 케이블 λ‰΄μŠ€λ₯Ό λ‹€ λ’€μ‘Œμ§€μš”.
01:32
We brought this raw data in and we filtered it.
28
92160
3000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 이런 미가곡 λ°μ΄ν„°λ‘œ λΆ€ν„° μ μ ˆν•œ 뢀뢄을 μΆ”λ €λƒˆμ§€μš”.
01:35
We extracted the key bits on information to build the database.
29
95160
3000
κ·Έλ¦¬κ³ λŠ” 핡심적인 정보λ₯Ό λ½‘μ•„λ‚΄μ„œ λ°μ΄ν„°λ² μ΄μŠ€λ₯Ό κ΅¬μΆ•ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
01:38
That database contained
30
98160
2000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” κ·Έ λ°μ΄ν„°λ² μ΄μŠ€μ—
01:40
the timing of attacks,
31
100160
2000
κ³΅κ²©μ‹œκ°„, μž₯μ†Œ, 곡격규λͺ¨ 및
01:42
the location, the size and the weapons used.
32
102160
2000
μ‚¬μš©λœ 무기 λ“±μ˜ 정보λ₯Ό λͺ¨μ•˜μ§€μš”.
01:44
It's all in the streams of information we consume daily,
33
104160
3000
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λ°μ΄ν„°λ² μ΄μŠ€μ— μ €μž₯ν•œ μ •λ³΄λŠ” λˆ„κ΅¬λ˜μ§€ λ°©λ²•λ§Œ μ•Œλ©΄
01:47
we just have to know how to pull it out.
34
107160
2000
맀일 μ ‘ν•˜λŠ” μ •λ³΄μ—μ„œ μ–Όλ§ˆλ˜μ§€ 뽑아낼 수 μžˆλŠ” κ²ƒλ“€μ΄μ—ˆμ£ .
01:49
And once we had this we could start doing some cool stuff.
35
109160
2000
일단 μ΄λ ‡κ²Œ λ°μ΄ν„°λ² μ΄μŠ€κ°€ μ€€λΉ„λ˜λ©΄ 멋진 일듀을 ν•  수 있죠.
01:51
What if we were to look at the distribution of the sizes of attacks?
36
111160
3000
곡격규λͺ¨μ˜ 뢄포λ₯Ό 보면 μ–΄λ–€ κ²°κ³Όκ°€ λ‚˜μ˜¬κΉŒ?
01:54
What would that tell us?
37
114160
2000
이 λ°μ΄ν„°λŠ” μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ 무엇을 λ§ν•΄μ€„κΉŒ?
01:56
So we started doing this. And you can see here
38
116160
2000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 데이터λ₯Ό λΆ„μ„ν•˜κΈ° μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
01:58
on the horizontal axis
39
118160
2000
κ°€λ‘œμΆ•μ€
02:00
you've got the number of people killed in an attack
40
120160
2000
λ°˜λž€κ΅°μ˜ 곡격으둜 μ‚¬λ§ν•œ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ˜ 수
02:02
or the size of the attack.
41
122160
2000
λ˜λŠ” 곡격의 규λͺ¨μ§€μš”.
02:04
And on the vertical axis you've got the number of attacks.
42
124160
3000
μ„Έλ‘œμΆ•μ€ κ³΅κ²©νšŸμˆ˜μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:07
So we plot data for sample on this.
43
127160
2000
이 λ°μ΄ν„°λ‘œ κ·Έλž˜ν”„λ₯Ό 그리면
02:09
You see some sort of random distribution --
44
129160
2000
데이터가 λ¬΄μž‘μœ„λ‘œ λΆ„ν¬λœ 것을 λ³Ό 수 있죠.
02:11
perhaps 67 attacks, one person was killed,
45
131160
3000
ν•œλͺ…이 죽은 곡격이 67회,
02:14
or 47 attacks where seven people were killed.
46
134160
3000
7λͺ…이 죽은 곡격이 47회 이런 식이죠.
02:17
We did this exact same thing for Iraq.
47
137160
2000
이라크전에도 같은 방법을 μ μš©ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:19
And we didn't know, for Iraq what we were going to find.
48
139160
3000
μ΄λΌν¬μ „μ˜ 경우 μ–΄λ–€ κ²°κ³Όκ°€ λ‚˜μ˜¬μ§€ λͺ°λžμ§€μš”.
02:22
It turns out what we found was pretty surprising.
49
142160
4000
κ·Έλž¬λ”λ‹ˆ κ½€ λ†€λΌμš΄ κ²°κ³Όκ°€ λ‚˜μ™”μ§€μš”.
02:26
You take all of the conflict,
50
146160
2000
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λͺ¨λ“  곡격에 λŒ€ν•œ
02:28
all of the chaos, all of the noise,
51
148160
2000
데이터λ₯Ό μ’…ν•©ν•΄ λ³Έ κ²°κ³Ό
02:30
and out of that
52
150160
2000
λ°μ΄ν„°μ˜ ν˜Όλž€κ³Ό λ°μ΄ν„°μ˜ λ…Έμ΄μ¦ˆ 속에
02:32
comes this precise mathematical distribution
53
152160
2000
곡격과 죽은 μ‚¬λžŒμ˜ μˆ˜μ— λŒ€ν•œ μ •ν™•ν•œ
02:34
of the way attacks are ordered in this conflict.
54
154160
3000
μˆ˜ν•™μ μΈ 뢄포가 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 것을 λ°œκ²¬ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
02:37
This blew our mind.
55
157160
2000
이것은 μ €ν¬λ“€μ—κ²ŒλŠ” μ—„μ²­λ‚œ λ°œκ²¬μ΄μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
02:39
Why should a conflict like Iraq have this
56
159160
4000
μ™œ 이라크의 μ „μŸμ— μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ
02:43
as its fundamental signature?
57
163160
2000
근본적인 νŠΉμ„±μ΄ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚ κΉŒμš”?
02:45
Why should there be order in war?
58
165160
2000
μ™œ μ „μŸμ— μ§ˆμ„œκ°€ μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
02:47
We didn't really understand that.
59
167160
2000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ •λ§λ‘œ 이해할 수 μ—†μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
02:49
We thought maybe there is something special about Iraq.
60
169160
4000
이라크전에 무슨 λ…νŠΉν•œ 상황이 μžˆλŠ”μ§€λ„ μƒκ°ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
02:53
So we looked at a few more conflicts.
61
173160
2000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ λ‹€λ₯Έ μ „μŸλ“€λ„ μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:55
We looked at Colombia, we looked at Afghanistan,
62
175160
2000
μ½œλ‘¬λΉ„μ•„, μ•„ν”„κ°€λ‹ˆμŠ€νƒ„
02:57
and we looked at Senegal.
63
177160
2000
μ„Έλ„€κ°ˆμ„ μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:59
And the same pattern emerged in each conflict.
64
179160
2000
κ·Έ κ²°κ³Ό λͺ¨λ“  μ „μŸμ—μ„œ 같은 νŒ¨ν„΄μ΄ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚¬μ§€μš”.
03:01
This wasn't supposed to happen.
65
181160
2000
그것은 κΈ°λŒ€ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜λ˜ μ‚¬μ‹€μ΄μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
03:03
These are different wars, with different religious factions,
66
183160
3000
이 μ „μŸλ“€μ€ κ΄€λ ¨λœ μ’…νŒŒ, μ •λ‹ΉνŒŒ
03:06
different political factions, and different socioeconomic problems.
67
186160
3000
그리고 μ‚¬νšŒκ²½μ œμ  λ¬Έμ œλ“€μ΄
03:09
And yet the fundamental patterns underlying them
68
189160
4000
각각 λ‹¬λžμ§€λ§Œ 근본적인 μ „μŸ νŒ¨ν„΄μ€
03:13
are the same.
69
193160
3000
λͺ¨λ‘ κ°™μ•˜μ§€μš”.
03:16
So we went a little wider.
70
196160
2000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 저희듀은 νŽ˜λ£¨μ—μ„œ
03:18
We looked around the world at all the data we could get our hands on.
71
198160
3000
μΈλ„λ„€μ‹œμ•„κΉŒμ§€ 이λ₯΄λŠ” λ‹€λ₯Έ 지역에 λŒ€ν•΄μ„œλ„ κ°€λŠ₯ν•œ
03:21
From Peru to Indonesia,
72
201160
3000
λͺ¨λ“  데이터λ₯Ό μˆ˜μ§‘ν–ˆλŠ”λ° μ—­μ‹œ κ·Έλ“€μ˜ νŒ¨ν„΄λ„
03:24
we studied this same pattern again.
73
204160
2000
λ§ˆμΉœκ°€μ§€ μ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:26
And we found that not only
74
206160
3000
μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ λͺ¨λ“  λ°μ΄ν„°λŠ”
03:29
were the distributions these straight lines,
75
209160
2000
μ§μ„ μ μœΌλ‘œ λΆ„ν¬λ˜μ—ˆμ„ 뿐만 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
03:31
but the slope of these lines, they clustered around
76
211160
2000
κ·ΈλΌν”„μ˜ κΈ°μšΈκΈ°λ„ μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ΄
03:33
this value of alpha equals 2.5.
77
213160
3000
2.5 뢀근에 밀집돼 μžˆμ—ˆμ§€μš”.
03:36
And we could generate an equation
78
216160
2000
저희듀은 이 λ°μ΄ν„°λ‘œ λΆ€ν„° 곡격 κ°€λŠ₯성을
03:38
that could predict the likelihood of an attack.
79
218160
3000
μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” 방정식을 λ§Œλ“€μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
03:41
What we're saying here
80
221160
2000
이 방정식은 이라크 같은
03:43
is the probability of an attack killing X number of people
81
223160
4000
λ‚˜λΌμ—μ„œ Xλͺ…μ˜ μ‚¬λžŒμ„ μ£½μ΄λŠ” 곡격이 λ°œμƒν•  κ°€λŠ₯성은
03:47
in a country like Iraq
82
227160
2000
μƒμˆ˜(εΈΈζ•Έ)와 곡격크기의
03:49
is equal to a constant, times the size of that attack,
83
229160
3000
λ§ˆμ΄λ„ˆμŠ€ μ•ŒνŒŒμŠΉμ„ κ³±ν•œ
03:52
raised to the power of negative alpha.
84
232160
3000
κ²ƒμ΄λΌλŠ” 것을 λ³΄μ—¬μ€λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:55
And negative alpha is the slope of that line I showed you before.
85
235160
6000
μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ, λ§ˆμ΄λ„ˆμŠ€ μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ€ 방금 λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦° μ§μ„ μ˜ κΈ°μšΈκΈ°μ΄μ§€μš”.
04:01
So what?
86
241160
2000
그러면 μ΄κ²ƒμ˜ μ˜λ―ΈλŠ” λ¬΄μ—‡μΌκΉŒμš”?
04:03
This is data, statistics. What does it tell us about these conflicts?
87
243160
3000
이것은 λ‹€λ§Œ 데이터이고 ν†΅κ³„μ΄μ§€μš”. 이것은 무엇을 말해 μ£ΌλŠ”κ°€μš”?
04:06
That was a challenge we had to face as physicists.
88
246160
3000
λ°”λ‘œ 이것이 λ¬Όλ¦¬ν•™μžλ‘œμ„œ μ œκ°€ λ„μ „ν•œ μ§ˆλ¬Έμ΄μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
04:09
How do we explain this?
89
249160
3000
μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ ν˜„μƒμ„ μ„€λͺ…ν•  수 μžˆλŠ”κ°€?
04:12
And what we really found was that alpha,
90
252160
2000
그런데 μš°λ¦¬κ°€ κ°€λ§Œνžˆ 생각해 보면
04:14
if we think about it, is the organizational
91
254160
2000
κ·Έ μ•ŒνŒŒλΌλŠ” κ²ƒμ˜ μ •μ²΄λŠ” λ°˜λž€κ΅°μ˜ 쑰직적인
04:16
structure of the insurgency.
92
256160
3000
κ΅¬μ‘°λΌλŠ” 것을 μ•Œ 수 μžˆμ§€μš”.
04:19
Alpha is the distribution of the sizes of attacks,
93
259160
3000
μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ€ 곡격규λͺ¨μ˜ 뢄포λ₯Ό λ§ν•˜λŠ”λ°
04:22
which is really the distribution
94
262160
2000
그것은 즉 곡격을 ν•˜λŠ” λ°˜λž€κ΅°λ“€μ˜
04:24
of the group strength carrying out the attacks.
95
264160
2000
μ„Έλ ₯ 뢄포λ₯Ό λ§ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ§€μš”.
04:26
So we look at a process of group dynamics:
96
266160
2000
κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 저희듀은 λ°˜λž€κ΅°λ“€μ˜
04:28
coalescence and fragmentation,
97
268160
3000
κ·Έλ£Ή 역동성, 즉 그듀이 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ
04:31
groups coming together, groups breaking apart.
98
271160
2000
μ—°ν•©ν•˜κ³  λΆ„μ—΄ν•˜λŠ”κ°€λ₯Ό μ‚΄νŽ΄λ΄€μ§€μš”.
04:33
And we start running the numbers on this. Can we simulate it?
99
273160
3000
방정식에 μˆ«μžλ„ 넣어보고 κ°€μƒμ‹€ν—˜ κ°€λŠ₯성도 생각해 λ΄€μ§€μš”.
04:36
Can we create the kind of patterns that we're seeing
100
276160
3000
이 λ°©μ •μ‹μœΌλ‘œ 이라크 같은 곳의 νŒ¨ν„΄μ„
04:39
in places like Iraq?
101
279160
3000
μž¬ν˜„ν•  수 μžˆμ„κΉŒ?
04:42
Turns out we kind of do a reasonable job.
102
282160
2000
κ·Έλž¬λ”λ‹ˆ κ·ΈλŸ΄λ“―ν•œ κ²°κ³Όκ°€ λ‚˜μ™”μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
04:44
We can run these simulations.
103
284160
2000
이 λ°©μ •μ‹μœΌλ‘œ κ°€μƒμ‹€ν—˜μ΄ κ°€λŠ₯ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” κ²°λ‘ μ΄μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
04:46
We can recreate this using a process of group dynamics
104
286160
3000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” κ·Έλ£Ή 역동성을 ν†΅ν•΄μ„œ μ „μ„Έκ³„μ—μ„œ
04:49
to explain the patterns that we see
105
289160
2000
μΌμ–΄λ‚˜λŠ” λͺ¨λ“  μ „μŸμ˜ νŒ¨ν„΄μ„
04:51
all around the conflicts around the world.
106
291160
5000
μ„€λͺ…ν•  수 μžˆμ—ˆμ§€μš”.
04:56
So what's going on?
107
296160
2000
그럼 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 그것이 κ°€λŠ₯ν• κΉŒ?
04:58
Why should these different -- seemingly different conflicts
108
298160
3000
각각 λ‹€λ₯΄κ²Œ λ³΄μ΄λŠ” μ „μŸλ“€μ΄ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 같은 νŒ¨ν„΄μ„
05:01
have the same patterns?
109
301160
2000
보여 μ€„μˆ˜ μžˆμ„κΉŒ?
05:03
Now what I believe is going on is that
110
303160
3000
μ €λŠ” λ°˜λž€κ΅°λ“€ μžμ²΄κ°€ μ‹œκ°„μ˜ 흐름에 따라
05:06
the insurgent forces, they evolve over time. They adapt.
111
306160
4000
바뀐닀고 μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. 즉, λ°”λ€ŒλŠ” ν™˜κ²½μ— μ μ‘ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 것이죠.
05:10
And it turns out there is only one solution
112
310160
2000
λ°˜λž€κ΅°λ“€μ΄ 훨씬 더 κ°•ν•œ 적을
05:12
to fight a much stronger enemy.
113
312160
2000
μƒλŒ€λ‘œ μ‹ΈμšΈλ•Œ 그듀이 생쑴할 수 μžˆλŠ”
05:14
And if you don't find that solution as an insurgent force,
114
314160
3000
μœ μΌν•œ 방법은 μ μ‘ν•˜λŠ” 것이고 μ μ‘ν•˜μ§€ λͺ»ν•˜λŠ” λ°˜λž€κ΅°μ€
05:17
you don't exist.
115
317160
2000
사라져 λ²„λ¦°λ‹€λŠ” 결둠을 λ‚΄λ Έμ£ .
05:19
So every insurgent force that is ongoing,
116
319160
2000
λ”°λΌμ„œ ν˜„μž¬ μ§„ν–‰λ˜κ³  μžˆλŠ” λͺ¨λ“ 
05:21
every conflict that is ongoing,
117
321160
2000
λ°˜λž€κ΅°λ“€μ˜ μ „μŸμ€ 이와 λΉ„μŠ·ν•œ .
05:23
it's going to look something like this.
118
323160
2000
νŒ¨ν„΄μ„ 보일 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€
05:25
And that is what we think is happening.
119
325160
3000
저희듀은 ν˜„μƒνƒœκ°€ 이렇닀고 μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:28
Taking it forward, how do we change it?
120
328160
2000
그러면 μ•žμœΌλ‘œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 상황을 λ°”κΏ€ 수 μžˆμ„κ°€μš”?
05:30
How do we end a war like Iraq?
121
330160
2000
이라크 같은 μ „μŸμ„ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 끝낼 수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
05:32
What does it look like?
122
332160
2000
그럴렀면 λ„ν‘œκ°€ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 보여야 ν• κΉŒμš”?
05:34
Alpha is the structure. It's got a stable state at 2.5.
123
334160
3000
μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ€ λ°˜λž€κ΅°μ˜ ꡬ쑰이고, ν˜„μž¬ 2.5μ—μ„œ μ•ˆμ •λœ 값을 가지고 μžˆμ§€μš”.
05:37
This is what wars look like when they continue.
124
337160
4000
μ „μŸμ΄ κ³„μ†λ˜λŠ” μƒνƒœλŠ” μ΄λ ‡κ²Œ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚˜μ§€μš”.
05:41
We've got to change that.
125
341160
2000
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ„ λ³€κ²½μ‹œμΌœμ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:43
We can push it up:
126
343160
2000
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ„ 올리면
05:45
the forces become more fragmented;
127
345160
2000
λ°˜λž€κ΅°μ΄ λΆ„μ‚°λ˜μ§€μš”.
05:47
there is more of them, but they are weaker.
128
347160
4000
λ°˜λž€κ΅° 그룹의 μˆ˜κ°€ λŠ˜μ–΄λ‚˜λ©΄ κ·Έλ“€μ˜ 힘이 μ•½ν•΄μ§€μ§€μš”.
05:51
Or we push it down:
129
351160
2000
μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ„ 내리면,
05:53
they're more robust; there is less groups;
130
353160
2000
λ°˜λž€κ΅° 그룹의 μˆ˜κ°€ 쀄어듀며 더 κ°•λ ₯ν•΄ μ§€μ§€μš”.
05:55
but perhaps you can sit and talk to them.
131
355160
4000
κ·Έλ ‡μ§€λ§Œ ν˜‘μƒμ΄ κ°€λŠ₯ν•˜κ²Œ 될지 λͺ¨λ₯΄μ£ .
05:59
So this graph here, I'm going to show you now.
132
359160
2000
μ§€κΈˆ λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬λŠ” 이 κ·Έλž˜ν”„λŠ”
06:01
No one has seen this before. This is literally
133
361160
3000
μ§€λ‚œμ£Όμ— 저희듀이 λ§Œλ“  것인데
06:04
stuff that we've come through last week.
134
364160
2000
μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ 처음으둜 λŒ€μ€‘μ—κ²Œ κ³΅κ°œλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:06
And we see the evolution of Alpha through time.
135
366160
4000
이 κ·Έλž˜ν”„λŠ” μ‹œκ°„μ΄ 흐름에 따라 μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ΄ λ³€ν•˜λŠ” 것을 λ³΄μ—¬μ€λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:10
We see it start. And we see it grow up to the stable state
136
370160
3000
κ·Έλž˜ν”„κ°€ μ‹œμž‘ν•˜λ©° μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ΄ μ•ˆμ •λœ μƒνƒœλ‘œ μ˜¬λΌκ°€κ³ 
06:13
the wars around the world look like.
137
373160
2000
λ‹€λ₯Έ μ „μŸκ³Ό λΉ„μŠ·ν•œ 양상을 λ„μš°μ§€μš”.
06:15
And it stays there through the invasion of Fallujah
138
375160
3000
이 μˆ˜μΉ˜λŠ” 2006λ…„ μ„ κ±°μ‹œ μ‚¬λ§ˆλΌ 폭격이
06:18
until the Samarra bombings in the
139
378160
2000
μžˆμ—ˆμ„λ•Œ κΉŒμ§€ νŒ”λ₯˜μŸˆ 점령 μ‹œκΈ°λ₯Ό
06:20
Iraqi elections of '06.
140
380160
3000
톡털어 같은 μˆ˜μ€€μ— λ¨Έλ―ˆμ—ˆμ—ˆμ§€μš”
06:23
And the system gets perturbed. It moves upwards
141
383160
2000
κ·Έν›„μ—λŠ” μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ΄ μœ„λ‘œμ˜¬λΌκ°€λ©° λ°˜λž€κ΅°μ΄
06:25
to a fragmented state.
142
385160
2000
λΆ„μ‚°λœ μƒνƒœλ‘œ λ“€μ–΄κ°€μ§€μš”.
06:27
This is when the surge happens.
143
387160
2000
μ΄λ•Œ κ°‘μž‘μŠ€λŸ° 증가가 μžˆμ—ˆμ§€μš”.
06:29
And depending on who you ask,
144
389160
2000
κ·Έ λ‹Ήμ‹œμ— μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ΄ 더 μ˜¬λΌκ°€λ©° λ°˜λž€κ΅°λ“€μ΄
06:31
the surge was supposed to push it up even further.
145
391160
3000
더 뢄산될 것이라고 λ§ν•˜λŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€λ„ μžˆμ—ˆμ§€λ§Œ
06:34
The opposite happened.
146
394160
2000
κ·Έ λ°˜λŒ€ ν˜„μƒμ΄ 일어났죠.
06:36
The groups became stronger.
147
396160
2000
λ°˜λž€κ΅° 집단듀이 더 강해지고 더 λ‹¨κ²°λμ§€μš”.
06:38
They became more robust.
148
398160
2000
그리고 그듀이 더 κ°•λ ₯ν•΄ μ‘Œμ§€μš”.
06:40
And so I'm thinking, right, great, it's going to keep going down.
149
400160
3000
μ €λŠ” μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ΄ 계속 더 λ‚΄λ €κ°ˆ 것이고, 그러면 μš°λ¦¬κ°€ ν˜‘μƒμ„
06:43
We can talk to them. We can get a solution. The opposite happened.
150
403160
3000
ν•΄μ„œ 해결책을 찾을 μˆ˜λ„ μžˆκ² λ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν–ˆλŠ”λ° μ •λ°˜λŒ€ ν˜„μƒμ΄ μΌμ–΄λ‚¬μ§€μš”.
06:46
It's moved up again. The groups are more fragmented.
151
406160
3000
μ•ŒνŒŒκ°’μ΄ λ‹€μ‹œ μ˜¬λΌκ°€κ³  λ°˜λž€κ΅°λ“€μ΄ 더 λΆ„μ‚°λ˜μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
06:49
And this tells me one of two things.
152
409160
2000
μ΄κ²ƒμœΌλ‘œ λΆ€ν„° 저희듀이 얻을 수 μžˆλŠ”
06:51
Either we're back where we started
153
411160
3000
결둠은 μ†Œνƒ•μž‘μ „μ˜ νš¨κ³Όκ°€ μ „ν˜€μ—†μ΄
06:54
and the surge has had no effect;
154
414160
2000
μ›μƒνƒœλ‘œ λŒμ•„μ™”κ±°λ‚˜,
06:56
or finally the groups have been fragmented to the extent
155
416160
4000
μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄, λ°˜λž€ μ„Έλ ₯듀이 μΆ©λΆ„νžˆ λΆ„μ‚°λ˜μ–΄ μ–΄μ©Œλ©΄ 이라크λ₯Ό
07:00
that we can start to think about maybe moving out.
156
420160
4000
철퇴할 생각을 해도 될 단계에 μ™”λŠ”μ§€λ„ λͺ¨λ₯Έλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ§€μš”.
07:04
I don't know what the answer is to that.
157
424160
2000
μ €λŠ” 이것에 λŒ€ν•œ λŒ€λ‹΅μ΄ 무엇인지 λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:06
But I know that we should be looking at the structure of the insurgency
158
426160
3000
ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ €λŠ” 이 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ— λŒ€ν•œ 닡을 찾으렀면 λ°˜λ“œμ‹œ λ°˜λž€κ΅°μ˜ ꡬ쑰λ₯Ό
07:09
to answer that question.
159
429160
2000
νŒŒμ•…ν•΄μ•Ό ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 것은 μ•Œκ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:11
Thank you.
160
431160
2000
κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:13
(Applause)
161
433160
5000
(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7