Maajid Nawaz: A global culture to fight extremism

106,486 views ・ 2011-07-14

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Zhiqing Zhang 校对人员: Xu Jiang
00:15
Have you ever wondered
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你们是否曾想知道
00:17
why extremism seems to have been on the rise in Muslim-majority countries
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为什么极端主义在穆斯林多数的国家逐渐的强大了起来
00:20
over the course of the last decade?
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尤其是在过去的十年间?
00:23
Have you ever wondered
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你们是否曾想知道
00:25
how such a situation can be turned around?
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这种情况如何才能被改变?
00:27
Have you ever looked at the Arab uprisings
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你们是否曾看着这些阿拉伯人的起义
00:29
and thought, "How could we have predicted that?"
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随之想:“我们怎样才能预见到这些起义?”
00:31
or "How could we have better prepared for that?"
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或“我们怎样才能更好的为之做准备?“
00:34
Well my personal story, my personal journey,
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我的故事,我亲身的历程
00:37
what brings me to the TED stage here today,
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促使我今天来到TED的讲台,
00:39
is a demonstration of exactly what's been happening
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讲述在以穆斯林为主的国家
00:41
in Muslim-majority countries
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过去的十年里,甚至更久远的时候
00:43
over the course of the last decades, at least, and beyond.
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到底发生了什么。
00:46
I want to share some of that story with you,
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我想和你分享这些故事
00:48
but also some of my ideas around change
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同时也有我对于这种改变的看法
00:51
and the role of social movements in creating change
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还有在创造这种变化中社会运动的作用
00:54
in Muslim-majority societies.
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在以穆斯林为主的国家中。
00:56
So let me begin
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我这就开始了
00:58
by first of all giving a very, very brief history of time,
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在最开始,我想介绍下一段非常非常简短的历史
01:01
if I may indulge.
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如果我可以的话
01:03
In medieval societies there were defined allegiances.
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中世纪的社会中有非常明确的效忠对象。
01:06
An identity was defined
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身份从根本上
01:08
primarily by religion.
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是由宗教决定的
01:10
And then we moved on into an era in the 19th century
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随之我们来到了19世纪的一段时期
01:13
with the rise of a European nation-state
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随着欧洲民族国家逐渐强大
01:16
where identities and allegiances were defined
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在那里身份和效忠对象
01:18
by ethnicity.
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是由种族划分决定的。
01:20
So identity was primarily defined by ethnicity,
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因此身份定位从根本上是由种族决定的
01:22
and the nation-state reflected that.
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民族国家反映了这个事实。
01:24
In the age of globalization, we moved on.
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在全球化的年代,我们继续发展。
01:27
I call it the era of citizenship --
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我称它为国籍时代--
01:30
where people could be from multi-racial, multi-ethnic backgrounds,
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在那里人们可以拥有多种族,多民族的背景,
01:33
but all be equal as citizens
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却都是同等的公民
01:35
in a state.
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属于一个国家。
01:37
You could be American-Italian; you could be American-Irish;
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你可以是美籍意大利人;你可以是美籍爱尔兰人
01:40
you could be British-Pakistani.
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你也可以是英籍巴基斯坦人。
01:42
But I believe now
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但是现在我相信
01:44
that we're moving into a new age,
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我们正在向一个新时代前进。
01:46
and that age The New York Times dubbed recently
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这个新时代最近被纽约时报称为
01:48
as "the age of behavior."
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”行为时代“
01:51
How I define the age of behavior
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我将行为时代定义为
01:53
is a period of transnational allegiances,
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一个有着跨国效忠对象的时期,
01:56
where identity is defined more so
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身份在这里更多的是
01:58
by ideas and narratives.
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被观点和故事所决定。
02:00
And these ideas and narratives that bump people across borders
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这些不分国界,冲击人们的观点和故事
02:03
are increasingly beginning to affect
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正在迅速的影响
02:05
the way in which people behave.
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人们行为的方式。
02:08
Now this is not all necessarily good news,
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这并不完全是好消息,
02:11
because it's also my belief
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因为我也同样相信
02:13
that hatred has gone global
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敌意也已经遍布全球
02:15
just as much as love.
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和爱一样多。
02:19
But actually it's my belief
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实际上我还相信
02:21
that the people who've been truly capitalizing on this age of behavior,
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那些真正利用这个行为时代的人们
02:24
up until now, up until recent times,
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直到现在,直到最近,
02:26
up until the last six months,
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直到六个月之前,
02:28
the people who have been capitalizing most
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那些人最大化的利用了
02:30
on the age of behavior
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行为时代
02:32
and the transnational allegiances,
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以及跨国忠诚对象,
02:34
using digital activism
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他们利用数码行动主义
02:36
and other sorts of borderless technologies,
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和其他无国界的科学技术,
02:38
those who've been benefiting from this
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那些从中获益的人
02:40
have been extremists.
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都是极端主义者。
02:44
And that's something which I'd like to elaborate on.
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这也是我想仔细阐述的话题
02:47
If we look at Islamists,
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如果我们观察伊斯兰教徒
02:49
if we look at the phenomenon
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如果我们观察这种
02:51
of far-right fascists,
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极端右倾的法西斯主义者的现象
02:54
one thing they've been very good at,
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他们最擅长的一项技能,
02:56
one thing that they've actually been exceeding in,
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他们超越了其他人的一件事,
02:58
is communicating across borders,
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就是跨境交流,
03:00
using technologies to organize themselves,
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利用科技来组织他们的活动,
03:02
to propagate their message
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来传送他们的信息
03:05
and to create truly global phenomena.
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来创造真正的世界范围的现象。
03:08
Now I should know,
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现在我了解了
03:10
because for 13 years of my life,
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因为我人生中的13年
03:12
I was involved in an extreme Islamist organization.
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都是在一个极端伊斯兰教组织中度过的。
03:16
And I was actually a potent force
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我实际曾经作为一种有权势的组织力量
03:18
in spreading ideas across borders,
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尤其是在跨境传播信息上。
03:20
and I witnessed the rise of Islamist extremism
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我目睹了伊斯兰极端主义的兴起
03:23
as distinct from Islam the faith,
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和伊斯兰的信仰非常不同
03:26
and the way in which it influenced my co-religionists
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我也目睹了它是如何影响我的同教徒
03:28
across the world.
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在世界范围内。
03:30
And my story, my personal story,
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我的故事,我的亲身经历
03:32
is truly evidence for the age of behavior
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是行为时代的非常好的证明
03:34
that I'm attempting to elaborate upon here.
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也是我现在想要详细说明的。
03:37
I was, by the way -- I'm an Essex lad,
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我是,顺便说一下,我是埃塞克斯人
03:39
born and raised in Essex in the U.K.
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在英国的埃塞克斯出生并长大。
03:41
Anyone who's from England
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从英国来的任何人
03:43
knows the reputation we have from Essex.
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都知道我们在埃塞克斯的名声。
03:45
But having been born in Essex,
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但出生于埃塞克斯,
03:47
at the age of 16,
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十六岁的时候,
03:49
I joined an organization.
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我加入了一个组织。
03:51
At the age of 17, I was recruiting people from Cambridge University
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在我17岁的时候,我在剑桥大学里为组织
03:54
to this organization.
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招募成员。
03:56
At the age of 19,
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在我19岁的时候,
03:58
I was on the national leadership of this organization in the U.K.
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我成为了这个组织英国地区的领导人。
04:01
At the age of 21, I was co-founding this organization in Pakistan.
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21岁的时候,我在巴基斯坦共同创立了这个组织。
04:04
At the age of 22,
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22岁的时候
04:06
I was co-founding this organization in Denmark.
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我在丹麦共同创立了这个组织。
04:08
By the age of 24,
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24岁的时候,
04:10
I found myself convicted in prison in Egypt,
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我在埃及被定罪入狱,
04:13
being blacklisted from three countries in the world
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被世界上的三个国家加入了黑名单
04:16
for attempting to overthrow their governments,
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罪状是试图颠覆他们的政府,
04:19
being subjected to torture
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我成为了被折磨的对象
04:21
in Egyptian jails
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在埃及的监狱里
04:23
and sentenced to five years as a prisoner of conscience.
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作为政治犯被判处5年的有期徒刑。
04:26
Now that journey,
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那段时期,
04:28
and what took me from Essex all the way across the world --
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带着我从埃塞克斯出发走过了全世界--
04:31
by the way, we were laughing at democratic activists.
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顺便说一下,我们当时嘲笑民主激进分子。
04:34
We felt they were from the age of yesteryear.
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我们觉得他们是从过去的时代来的。
04:36
We felt that they were out of date.
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我们觉得他们太过时了。
04:38
I learned how to use email
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我学会了如何使用电邮
04:41
from the extremist organization that I used.
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从极端分子组织的活动中。
04:44
I learned how to effectively communicate across borders
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我学会了如何有效地跨境交流
04:46
without being detected.
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在不被发觉得情况下。
04:48
Eventually I was detected, of course, in Egypt.
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后来我还是被发觉了,当然,在埃及。
04:51
But the way in which I learned
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然而我学会
04:53
to use technology to my advantage
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利用科技
04:55
was because I was within an extremist organization
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是因为我属于一个极端主义组织
04:58
that was forced to think beyond
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在那里你需要考虑更周密,超越
05:00
the confines of the nation-state.
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超越民族国家的边界。
05:02
The age of behavior: where ideas and narratives
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行为时代,在这里观点和故事
05:04
were increasingly defining behavior
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迅速的决定了行为
05:07
and identity and allegiances.
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身份以及忠诚。
05:09
So as I said, we looked to the status quo
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所以如我所说,我们观察现状
05:12
and ridiculed it.
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并嘲弄它。
05:14
And it's not just Islamist extremists that did this.
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并不是只有伊斯兰极端分子这样做。
05:16
But even if you look across
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但如果你纵观全局
05:18
the mood music in Europe of late,
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即便是在后期欧洲舒缓的气氛音乐里,
05:20
far-right fascism is also on the rise.
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右倾法西斯主义也在发展壮大。
05:22
A form of anti-Islam rhetoric
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一种反伊斯兰的言论
05:24
is also on the rise
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也在逐渐兴起
05:26
and it's transnational.
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并且,它是跨国的。
05:28
And the consequences that this is having
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这种现象所导致的后果
05:31
is that it's affecting the political climate
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就是影响了整个欧洲
05:34
across Europe.
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的政治气候。
05:36
What's actually happening
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实际发生的是
05:38
is that what were previously localized parochialisms,
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先前被局限于偏狭地方的
05:41
individual or groupings of extremists
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个体极端主义者或是集体极端主义者
05:44
who were isolated from one another,
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他们曾被互相孤立
05:46
have become interconnected in a globalized way
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但现在以一种全球化的方式互相联系了起来
05:49
and have thus become, or are becoming, mainstream.
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因为成为了,或即将成为,主流。
05:52
Because the Internet and connection technologies
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因为网络和通信技术
05:55
are connecting them across the world.
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把他们由世界的各个角落联系在了一起。
05:58
If you look at the rise of far-right fascism across Europe of late,
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如果你注意后期欧洲极端右倾法西斯主义的兴起
06:01
you will see some things that are happening
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你会发现正在发生的一些东西
06:03
that are influencing domestic politics,
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正在影响该国政治,
06:05
yet the phenomenon is transnational.
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然而这个现象也是跨国境的。
06:08
In certain countries, mosque minarets are being banned.
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在某些国家,清真寺尖塔是被禁止建造的。
06:10
In others, headscarves are being banned.
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在其他一些国家,头巾面纱也是被禁止的。
06:12
In others, kosher and halal meat are being banned,
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在还有的国家,宗教类的肉食是被禁止的,
06:14
as we speak.
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就在此刻。
06:16
And on the flip side,
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就另一方面来说,
06:18
we have transnational Islamist extremists
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我们也有跨国境的伊斯兰极端主义分子
06:21
doing the same thing across their own societies.
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在他们的社会里做着同样的事情。
06:24
And so they are pockets of parochialism that are being connected
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这些偏隘地区的人被联系在了一起
06:27
in a way that makes them feel like they are mainstream.
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这种联系使他们感觉他们其实才是主流。
06:30
Now that never would have been possible before.
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尤其是现在,这种情况以前几乎是不可能的。
06:32
They would have felt isolated,
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他们感到被孤立,被隔离,
06:34
until these sorts of technologies came around
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直到这些先进技术的到来
06:36
and connected them in a way
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把他们联系在一起
06:38
that made them feel part of a larger phenomenon.
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使其感觉自己是大众现象的一部分。
06:40
Where does that leave democracy aspirants?
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这种现象给那些有抱负的民主家们留下了什么?
06:43
Well I believe they're getting left far behind.
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我相信他们被远远的落下了。
06:46
And I'll give you an example here at this stage.
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我在这里也会举个例子。
06:49
If any of you remembers the Christmas Day bomb plot:
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不知你们是否记得圣诞节爆炸案:
06:52
there's a man called Anwar al-Awlaki.
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有一个人叫安瓦尔·奥拉基。
06:55
As an American citizen, ethnically a Yemeni,
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是一个美国市民,也是也门人
06:57
in hiding currently in Yemen,
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藏身于也门,
06:59
who inspired a Nigerian,
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他激励了一个尼日利亚人,
07:01
son of the head of Nigeria's national bank.
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一位尼日利亚银行领头者的儿子。
07:03
This Nigerian student studied in London, trained in Yemen,
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这位尼日利亚学生在伦敦上学,在也门受训,
07:06
boarded a flight in Amsterdam to attack America.
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他登上了一架起飞于阿姆斯特丹的航班,计划攻击美国。
07:09
In the meanwhile,
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同时,
07:11
the Old mentality with a capital O,
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老论派,有着陈旧的观念
07:13
was represented by his father, the head of the Nigerian bank,
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是由这个学生的父亲,尼日利亚银行的领头人,所代表的
07:16
warning the CIA that his own son was about to attack,
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他警示了美国中央情报局说他的儿子即将袭击
07:19
and this warning fell on deaf ears.
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然而对于这个警告,中情局充耳不闻
07:21
The Old mentality with a capital O,
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有着陈旧观念的老论派
07:24
as represented by the nation-state,
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正如民族国家所代表的,
07:26
not yet fully into the age of behavior,
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没有完全踏入行为时代,
07:28
not recognizing the power of transnational social movements,
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更没有意识到跨国社会运动的力量,
07:31
got left behind.
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他们被落下了。
07:33
And the Christmas Day bomber almost succeeded
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最后圣诞节轰炸者几乎成功的
07:35
in attacking the United States of America.
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袭击了美国。
07:39
Again with the example of the far right:
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这也是个极度右倾的例子:
07:42
that we find, ironically,
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很讽刺地,我们发现,
07:44
xenophobic nationalists
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恐外的民族主义者
07:49
are utilizing the benefits of globalization.
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却在利用全球化所带来的好处。
07:52
So why are they succeeding?
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他们为什么成功?
07:54
And why are democracy aspirants falling behind?
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为什么有抱负的民主份子却被赶超?
07:57
Well we need to understand the power of the social movements who understand this.
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我们首先需要了解社会运动的力量来真正了解这个问题
08:00
And a social movement is comprised, in my view,
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以我的观点,一个社会运动包含
08:03
it's comprised of four main characteristics.
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四个主要的特征。
08:05
It's comprised of ideas and narratives
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它是由概念,名目
08:07
and symbols and leaders.
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象征,和领导者组成的。
08:09
I'll talk you through one example,
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我会用一个例子来详细解释,
08:11
and that's the example that everyone here will be aware of,
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这个例子在座的各位都耳熟能详,
08:14
and that's the example of Al-Qaeda.
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就是基地组织。
08:17
If I asked you to think of the ideas of Al-Qaeda,
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如果我让你想一想基地组织的概念,
08:19
that's something that comes to your mind immediately.
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就是提到基地组织你能马上想到的。
08:21
If I ask you to think of their narratives --
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我如果我让你考虑这个组织的名目及起事理由--
08:23
the West being at war with Islam, the need to defend Islam against the West --
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西方国家在和伊斯兰国家斗争,需要保卫伊斯兰国家,反抗西方列强--
08:26
these narratives, they come to your mind immediately.
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你可以迅速的想到这些起事理由。
08:29
Incidentally, the difference between ideas and narratives:
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顺便说一下,概念和起事理由的区别是:
08:32
the idea is the cause that one believes in;
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概念是一个人相信这个组织的原因;
08:35
and the narrative is the way to sell that cause --
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而起事理由是一种推销这个原因的方式--
08:38
the propaganda, if you like, of the cause.
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政治宣传,如果你喜欢,可以这样说。
08:41
So the ideas and the narratives of Al-Qaeda come to your mind immediately.
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这样基地组织的概念和故事就马上浮现在你的脑海里。
08:44
If I ask you to think of their symbols and their leaders,
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如果我问你他们的象征和他们的领导者,
08:46
they come to your mind immediately.
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你也能立刻想到。
08:48
One of their leaders was killed in Pakistan recently.
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他们领导者中之一最近在巴基斯坦被杀死了。
08:50
So these symbols and these leaders
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这些象征和领导人
08:52
come to your mind immediately.
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你都能很快的想到。
08:54
And that's the power of social movements.
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而这就是社会运动的力量。
08:56
They're transnational, and they bond around these ideas and narratives
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他们无国界,他们也和概念,名目,
08:59
and these symbols and these leaders.
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象征,和领导者紧密相连。
09:02
However,
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然而,
09:04
if I ask your minds to focus currently on Pakistan,
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如果我让你把注意力集中到巴基斯坦上,
09:07
and I ask you to think
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并且让你思考
09:10
of the symbols and the leaders for democracy
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那些民主主义的象征和领导者
09:12
in Pakistan today,
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在今天的巴基斯坦,
09:14
you'll be hard pressed
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你会觉得压力很大
09:16
to think beyond perhaps
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尤其是当你所想超越了
09:18
the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
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被暗杀的贝布托。
09:20
Which means, by definition,
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它意味着,从定义上讲,
09:22
that particular leader no longer exists.
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这个领导人不再存在了。
09:25
One of the problems we're facing is, in my view,
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我们正在面对的问题之一是,以我的观点看,
09:28
that there are no globalized,
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目前没有全球化的
09:30
youth-led, grassroots social movements
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年轻人主导的,基层的社会运动
09:33
advocating for democratic culture
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来提倡一种民主文化
09:35
across Muslim-majority societies.
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尤其是在穆斯林多数的社会中。
09:37
There is no equivalent of the Al-Qaeda, without the terrorism,
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在以穆斯林为主的社会中,没有恐怖组织,没有能和基地组织势均力敌的,
09:40
for democracy across Muslim-majority societies.
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的民主组织。
09:43
There are no ideas and narratives and leaders and symbols
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更没有概念,名目,领导人,和象征
09:46
advocating the democratic culture on the ground.
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从基层起提倡民主文化。
09:50
So that begs the next question.
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09:53
Why is it that extremist organizations,
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为什么是极端分子组织,
09:56
whether of the far-right or of the Islamist extremism --
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不管是极度右倾,或者是伊斯兰极端分子--
09:59
Islamism meaning those who wish to impose
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伊斯兰分子是指那些想强加一种伊斯兰教义
10:01
one version of Islam over the rest of society --
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于社会上的其他人--
10:03
why is it that they are succeeding
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为什么他们成功了
10:05
in organizing in a globalized way,
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特别是在以一种全球化的方式组织起义上,
10:07
whereas those who aspire to democratic culture
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当那些追求民主文化的人
10:09
are falling behind?
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被远远落下?
10:11
And I believe that's for four reasons.
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我相信事之至此有四个原因。
10:14
I believe, number one, it's complacency.
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第一,是自满。
10:17
Because those who aspire to democratic culture
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因为那些追求民主文化的人
10:19
are in power,
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大多是掌权者,
10:21
or have societies
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亦或是位高权重的社团
10:23
that are leading globalized, powerful societies,
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领导着全球化的,有力度的社会,
10:25
powerful countries.
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乃至强大的国家。
10:27
And that level of complacency means
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这种程度的自满意味着
10:29
they don't feel the need to advocate for that culture.
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他们不觉得需要提倡这种文化。
10:32
The second, I believe,
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第二点,我相信,
10:34
is political correctness.
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是有关政治的正确性。
10:38
That we have a hesitation
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我们一直悬而未决
10:41
in espousing the universality of democratic culture
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在支持民主文化的普及方面,
10:44
because we are associating that --
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因为我们自然地把它关联到--
10:46
we associate believing in the universality of our values --
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我们把相信普及我们的价值观--
10:49
with extremists.
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于极端主义分子,联系了起来。
10:51
Yet actually, whenever we talk about human rights,
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然而实际上,无论何时当我们谈到人权,
10:53
we do say that human rights are universal.
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我们确实说人权是全世界一致的。
10:57
But actually going out to propagate that view
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但一旦设法去宣传这种观念
10:59
is associated with either neoconservativism
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这种行为就被和新保守主义
11:02
or with Islamist extremism.
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或伊斯兰极端主义联系到了一起。
11:04
To go around saying that I believe
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去四处宣传说我相信
11:06
democratic culture is the best that we've arrived at
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民主文化是我们所实现的最好
11:09
as a form of political organizing
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以这种舆论来组织政治活动
11:12
is associated with extremism.
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往往被和极端主义联系起来。
11:14
And the third,
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第三点,
11:16
democratic choice in Muslim-majority societies
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在穆斯林多数的社会,民主选择
11:18
has been relegated to a political choice,
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被归入到政治选择中
11:21
meaning political parties
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这意味着,政党
11:24
in many of these societies
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在这些社会中
11:28
ask people to vote for them
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会让人们为他们投票
11:30
as the democratic party,
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作为民主党派,
11:32
but then the other parties ask them to vote for them
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然而这时会有其他的党派让人们也为他们投票
11:34
as the military party --
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作为军党--
11:36
wanting to rule by military dictatorship.
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试图以军力独裁来统治。
11:38
And then you have a third party saying,
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这时又会有第三种党派站出来说,
11:40
"Vote for us; we'll establish a theocracy."
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“给我们投票吧,我们会建立一个神权政体。”
11:42
So democracy has become merely one political choice
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正因如此,民主主义不过成为了一个政治性选择
11:45
among many other forms
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在这个社会中诸多其他形式的
11:47
of political choices available in those societies.
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政治选择中的一个.
11:50
And what happens as a result of this
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作为结果的是
11:52
is, when those parties are elected,
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当这些党派被选举出来
11:54
and inevitably they fail,
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然后不可避免的失败了,
11:56
or inevitably they make political mistakes,
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或者不可避免的犯了政治性错误,
11:58
democracy takes the blame
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民主主义成为了千夫所指的对象
12:00
for their political mistakes.
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为他们的政治错误.
12:02
And then people say, "We've tried democracy. It doesn't really work.
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然后人们就会说:“我们尝试了民主主义,它并不适合我们。”
12:05
Let's bring the military back again."
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“我们还是继续用军统吧。”
12:07
And the fourth reason, I believe,
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第四个理由,我相信是
12:09
is what I've labeled here on the slide as the ideology of resistance.
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在此幻灯片上我称它为阻力的意识形态。
12:12
What I mean by that is,
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我想表达的意思是,
12:14
if the world superpower today was a communist,
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如果这个世界当今的超级大国是一个共产主义国家,
12:16
it would be much easier for democracy activists
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那么对于民主倡导者就会更容易的
12:18
to use democracy activism
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使用民主激进主义
12:20
as a form of resistance against colonialism,
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作为对抗殖民主义的阻力,
12:22
than it is today with the world superpower being America,
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相比之下,如今世界的强国是美国,
12:25
occupying certain lands
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占领了某些土地
12:27
and also espousing democratic ideals.
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也同时支持着民主的理想。
12:29
So roughly these four reasons
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这样看来,粗略的说这四个理由
12:31
make it a lot more difficult for democratic culture to spread
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使民主文化的扩散变得越来越困难
12:34
as a civilizational choice,
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尤其是作为一种文明的抉择,
12:36
not merely as a political choice.
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而不仅仅是一种政治的选择。
12:39
When talking about those reasons,
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当我们谈到这些理由时,
12:41
let's break down certain preconceptions.
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我们应该先打破某些先入概念。
12:43
Is it just about grievances?
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仅仅是关于冤屈不满么?
12:45
Is it just about a lack of education?
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仅仅是关于缺少教育么?
12:48
Well statistically,
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统计上表明,
12:50
the majority of those who join extremist organizations are highly educated.
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大多数加入极端分子组织的人都有很高的教育程度。
12:53
Statistically, they are educated, on average,
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统计上说,他们平均的受教育程度
12:55
above the education levels
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要高于西方社会的
12:57
of Western society.
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教育程度。
12:59
Anecdotally, we can demonstrate
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举例来说,我们可以证实
13:01
that if poverty was the only factor,
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贫穷是否是唯一的因素,
13:03
well Bin Laden is from one of the richest families in Saudi Arabia.
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本拉登是来自沙特阿拉伯最富有的国家之一。
13:06
His deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was a pediatrician --
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他的副手,扎瓦西里,是一名儿科医生--
13:09
not an ill-educated man.
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而不是缺乏教育的人。
13:11
International aid and development has been going on for years,
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近几年国际援助和发展都在继续着,
13:14
but extremism in those societies, in many of those societies,
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但是在这些社会中的极端主义,
13:16
has been on the rise.
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都在迅速发展。
13:18
And what I believe is missing
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我坚信缺少的
13:20
is genuine grassroots activism
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是真正的基层运动
13:22
on the ground,
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尤其是在前线,
13:24
in addition to international aid,
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除了国际援助以外,
13:26
in addition to education, in addition to health.
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除了教育,除了健康。
13:29
Not exclusive to these things, but in addition to them,
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不是独立于这些,而是和它们并存的
13:32
is propagating a genuine demand for democracy on the ground.
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是宣传对基层民主主义的真正需求。
13:35
And this is where I believe
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我相信这也是
13:37
neoconservatism had it upside-down.
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后保守主义出现本末倒置之处。
13:39
Neoconservatism had the philosophy
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后保守主义的理念是
13:41
that you go in with a supply-led approach
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你由一个供给引领的途径着手
13:44
to impose democratic values from the top down.
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由高层到基层的施加民主价值观。
13:47
Whereas Islamists and far-right organizations, for decades,
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然而伊斯兰分子和极度右倾组织,历经几十年,
13:50
have been building demand for their ideology on the grassroots.
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逐步的构建他们对基层思想意识的需求。
13:53
They've been building civilizational demand for their values
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他们构建了对他们所崇尚价值观的文明需求
13:55
on the grassroots,
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特别是在基层,
13:57
and we've been seeing those societies slowly transition
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我们也看到了这些社会的缓慢转型
14:00
to societies that are increasingly asking for
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成为对某种伊斯兰主义逐渐需求的
14:03
a form of Islamism.
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社会体制。
14:05
Mass movements in Pakistan
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巴基斯坦的群众运动
14:07
have been represented after the Arab uprisings
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在阿拉伯起义后,主要由
14:09
mainly by organizations
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声称要构建某种神权政体
14:11
claiming for some form of theocracy,
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的组织所代表,
14:13
rather than for a democratic uprising.
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而不是代表一种民主起义。
14:15
Because since pre-partition,
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因为从预分割时期开始,
14:17
they've been building demand for their ideology on the ground.
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他们就一直致力于在基层构建对他们思想体系的需求。
14:20
And what's needed is a genuine transnational
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其中最需要的就是一种真实的跨国境的
14:22
youth-led movement
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青年人引领的运动
14:24
that works to actively advocate
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能够积极的推崇
14:26
for the democratic culture --
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民主文化--
14:28
which is necessarily more
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必然
14:30
than just elections.
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不仅仅是选举。
14:32
But without freedom of speech, you can't have free and fair elections.
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但是没有言论自由,也就不会出现自由公正的选举。
14:35
Without human rights, you don't have the protection granted to you to campaign.
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没有人权,你就不会有去竞选的保障。
14:38
Without freedom of belief,
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没有信仰自由,
14:40
you don't have the right to join organizations.
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你不会有参加组织的权利。
14:42
So what's needed is those organizations on the ground
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因此,我们需要的是那些在一线的组织
14:44
advocating for the democratic culture itself
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推崇民主文化
14:49
to create the demand on the ground for this culture.
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从而在这些地区引起对这种文化的需求。
14:53
What that will do
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这样就可以
14:55
is avoid the problem I was talking about earlier,
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避免我先前谈到的问题,
14:58
where currently we have political parties presenting democracy
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特别是当前那些代表民主主义的政党
15:01
as merely a political choice in those societies
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在那些社会里只是一种政治选择
15:04
alongside other choices
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和其他的选择一起
15:06
such as military rule and theocracy.
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例如军事统治和神权政治。
15:08
Whereas if we start building this demand on the ground on a civilizational level,
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然而如果我们可以从文明水平在基层极度构建这种需求,
15:11
rather than merely on a political level,
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不是仅仅从政治水平,
15:13
a level above politics --
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从一个高于政治的水平--
15:16
movements that are not political parties,
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不是有关政党的运动,
15:18
but are rather creating this civilizational demand
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而是创造这种文明需求
15:20
for this democratic culture.
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这种民主文化的运动
15:22
What we'll have in the end
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我们最后会拥有的
15:24
is this ideal that you see on the slide here --
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会是你们可以在这个幻灯片上看到的理想情况
15:26
the ideal that people should vote in an existing democracy,
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一种人们可以在民主中投票
15:30
not for a democracy.
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而不是为了民主投票的理想
15:32
But to get to that stage,
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但是为了达到那个阶段
15:34
where democracy builds the fabric of society
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民主建立于社会构造
15:37
and the political choices within that fabric,
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和构造中的政治选择之上,
15:39
but are certainly not theocratic and military dictatorship --
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但肯定不是神权政体和军事独裁--
15:44
i.e. you're voting in a democracy,
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比如说,你在民主中投票,
15:46
in an existing democracy,
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在一个现存的民主体制中,
15:48
and that democracy is not merely one of the choices at the ballot box.
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这种民主不仅仅是投票箱中的选择之一。
15:51
To get to that stage,
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为了达到那个阶段,
15:53
we genuinely need to start building demand
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我们实着需要开始构建那些基层的社会里
15:56
in those societies on the ground.
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的需求。
16:01
Now to conclude, how does that happen?
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现在总结一下,这是如何发生的?
16:04
Well, Egypt is a good starting point.
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埃及是一个很好的出发点。
16:06
The Arab uprisings have demonstrated that this is already beginning.
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阿拉伯起义证实了这一切已经开始。
16:09
But what happened in the Arab uprisings and what happened in Egypt
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但发生在阿拉伯起义和埃及的情况
16:12
was particularly cathartic for me.
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却独独对我起了净化的作用。
16:15
What happened there was a political coalition
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发生在那里的情况是一场政治联合
16:18
gathered together for a political goal,
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为了一个政治目的聚集在一起,
16:20
and that was to remove the leader.
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目的是推翻领导者。
16:22
We need to move one step beyond that now.
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我们现在需要采取进一步的行动。
16:24
We need to see how we can help those societies
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我们需要了解如何才能帮助那些社会
16:26
move from political coalitions,
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从政治联合,
16:28
loosely based political coalitions,
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非常松散的政治联合,
16:30
to civilizational coalitions
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改变成文明的联合
16:32
that are working for the ideals and narratives
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能为基层的民主文化的
16:34
of the democratic culture on the ground.
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理想和名目而效力。
16:36
Because it's not enough to remove a leader
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因为这对于推翻一名领导者
16:38
or ruler or dictator.
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统治者,或是独裁者来说还不够。
16:40
That doesn't guarantee that what comes next
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因它无法保证接下来的
16:42
will be a society built on democratic values.
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将会是一个建立于民主价值上的社会。
16:46
But generally, the trends that start in Egypt
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但总的来说,起始于埃及的趋势
16:48
have historically spread across the MENA region,
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历史性的席卷了MENA地区,
16:50
the Middle East and North Africa region.
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中东和北非地区。
16:52
So when Arab socialism started in Egypt, it spread across the region.
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因此当阿拉伯社会主义在埃及兴起的时候,传遍了那个地区。
16:55
In the '80s and '90s when Islamism started in the region,
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在80和90年代,当伊斯兰主义在那个地区兴起的时候,
16:58
it spread across the MENA region as a whole.
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就席卷了中东北美地区全部。
17:01
And the aspiration that we have at the moment --
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我们当下渴望的是--
17:03
as young Arabs are proving today
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就如年轻阿拉伯人今天所证实的
17:05
and instantly rebranding themselves
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即刻重新定位了他们自己
17:07
as being prepared to die for more than just terrorism --
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准备好不仅仅是为恐怖主义捐躯--
17:10
is that there is a chance
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就是有一个机会
17:13
that democratic culture can start in the region
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可以使民主文化在该地区发展壮大
17:15
and spread across to the rest of the countries that are surrounding that.
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传遍周边国家。
17:17
But that will require
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但那会需要
17:19
helping these societies transition
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我们帮助这些社会从
17:21
from having merely political coalitions
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仅仅有政治联合
17:23
to building genuinely grassroots-based social movements
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过渡到创建真正的基层社会运动
17:26
that advocate for the democratic culture.
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来推崇民主文化。
17:28
And we've made a start for that in Pakistan
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我们已经从巴基斯坦开始开展
17:31
with a movement called Khudi,
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一项运动,称为Khudi,
17:33
where we are working on the ground to encourage the youth
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在那里,我们在基层致力于鼓励年轻人
17:36
to create genuine buy-in for the democratic culture.
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建立对民主文化的真正认同。
17:39
And it's with that thought that I'll end.
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我将以这个想法作为结尾。
17:41
And my time is up, and thank you for your time.
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今天就讲到这了,感谢各位的参与。
17:43
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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