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譯者: Ana Choi
審譯者: Sunny Kan Ngai Hang
00:15
Have you ever wondered
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你有沒有想過
00:17
why extremism seems to have been on the rise in Muslim-majority countries
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為什麼在過去十年歷程在穆斯林佔多數的國家
00:20
over the course of the last decade?
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極端主義似乎有上升?
00:23
Have you ever wondered
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你有沒有想過
00:25
how such a situation can be turned around?
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這樣的情況如何可以翻轉?
00:27
Have you ever looked at the Arab uprisings
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你有沒有在看阿拉伯起義時
00:29
and thought, "How could we have predicted that?"
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想著: 「我們怎樣能預測這件事情呢?」
00:31
or "How could we have better prepared for that?"
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或「我們怎麼能更充分的準備呢?」
00:34
Well my personal story, my personal journey,
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那麼這是我個人的故事,我個人的旅程,
00:37
what brings me to the TED stage here today,
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是為什麼我今天在TED這裡,
00:39
is a demonstration of exactly what's been happening
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準確演示在在過去至少幾十年
00:41
in Muslim-majority countries
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或甚至更長時間內
00:43
over the course of the last decades, at least, and beyond.
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穆斯林佔多數的國家發生過什麼。
00:46
I want to share some of that story with you,
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我想與你分享一些故事,
00:48
but also some of my ideas around change
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並且也有一些我認為轉變的想法
00:51
and the role of social movements in creating change
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及社會運動對改變
00:54
in Muslim-majority societies.
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穆斯林佔多數社會的角色。
00:56
So let me begin
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如果我可以放任發揮,
00:58
by first of all giving a very, very brief history of time,
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讓我首先給你的一個
01:01
if I may indulge.
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非常非常濃縮的歷史簡介。
01:03
In medieval societies there were defined allegiances.
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在中世紀社會中忠誠是有定義的。
01:06
An identity was defined
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一個身份的定義
01:08
primarily by religion.
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主要是來自宗教。
01:10
And then we moved on into an era in the 19th century
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然後我們就進入在19世紀時代
01:13
with the rise of a European nation-state
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歐洲民族國家的身份
01:16
where identities and allegiances were defined
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和忠誠的定義
01:18
by ethnicity.
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是來自種族。
01:20
So identity was primarily defined by ethnicity,
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因此,種族主要是界定身份,
01:22
and the nation-state reflected that.
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而國家民族也反映如同。
01:24
In the age of globalization, we moved on.
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在全球化時代,我們繼續前行。
01:27
I call it the era of citizenship --
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我把它稱為公民的時代 --
01:30
where people could be from multi-racial, multi-ethnic backgrounds,
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人們可以從多種族化,多民族化的背景,
01:33
but all be equal as citizens
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但都被視為一個國家
01:35
in a state.
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的平等公民。
01:37
You could be American-Italian; you could be American-Irish;
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你可能是美國的意大利人,你可能是美國的愛爾蘭人,
01:40
you could be British-Pakistani.
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你可能是英國巴基斯坦人。
01:42
But I believe now
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但我相信現在
01:44
that we're moving into a new age,
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我們正在進入一個新的時代,
01:46
and that age The New York Times dubbed recently
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而且最近這個時代被紐約時報
01:48
as "the age of behavior."
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稱為「 行為的時代」。
01:51
How I define the age of behavior
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我如何定義行為的時代
01:53
is a period of transnational allegiances,
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是以一個跨國的忠誠準則,
01:56
where identity is defined more so
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其中身份的標定是指
01:58
by ideas and narratives.
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思想和敘事。
02:00
And these ideas and narratives that bump people across borders
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而這些越來越多的理念和敘事
02:03
are increasingly beginning to affect
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而簸動人們跨越國界開始影響
02:05
the way in which people behave.
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人們的行為。
02:08
Now this is not all necessarily good news,
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這並不一定是個好消息,
02:11
because it's also my belief
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因為我也相信,
02:13
that hatred has gone global
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仇恨跟愛一樣
02:15
just as much as love.
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已經全球化。
02:19
But actually it's my belief
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但實際上我是相信,
02:21
that the people who've been truly capitalizing on this age of behavior,
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已經真正把握這種行為的人,
02:24
up until now, up until recent times,
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到現在為止,直到近代,
02:26
up until the last six months,
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直到最近6個月,
02:28
the people who have been capitalizing most
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最能利用
02:30
on the age of behavior
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行為時代的人們
02:32
and the transnational allegiances,
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和跨國忠誠,
02:34
using digital activism
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用激進的數據化
02:36
and other sorts of borderless technologies,
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和其他各種無國界的技術,
02:38
those who've been benefiting from this
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那些已經從中受益的
02:40
have been extremists.
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是極端分子。
02:44
And that's something which I'd like to elaborate on.
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這便是我想闡述的東西。
02:47
If we look at Islamists,
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如果我們看一下伊斯蘭主義,
02:49
if we look at the phenomenon
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如果我們看一下
02:51
of far-right fascists,
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在極右翼法西斯的現象,
02:54
one thing they've been very good at,
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他們有一點已經很好,
02:56
one thing that they've actually been exceeding in,
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他們實際上已經超過這一點,
02:58
is communicating across borders,
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是跨越國界的通信,
03:00
using technologies to organize themselves,
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採用技術組織起來,
03:02
to propagate their message
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傳播他們的信息,
03:05
and to create truly global phenomena.
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並建立真正的全球性現象。
03:08
Now I should know,
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現在我應該知道,
03:10
because for 13 years of my life,
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因為我13年的生活,
03:12
I was involved in an extreme Islamist organization.
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我是在參與一個極端的伊斯蘭組織。
03:16
And I was actually a potent force
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而實際上我是一個在傳播
03:18
in spreading ideas across borders,
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跨越國界的想法的強大力量。
03:20
and I witnessed the rise of Islamist extremism
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我親眼目睹了伊斯蘭極端主義的興起,
03:23
as distinct from Islam the faith,
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顯明不同於伊斯蘭教的信仰,
03:26
and the way in which it influenced my co-religionists
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和影響了我在世界各地教友
03:28
across the world.
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作為的和方式。
03:30
And my story, my personal story,
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而我的故事,我個人的故事,
03:32
is truly evidence for the age of behavior
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是真正的行為時代的證據,
03:34
that I'm attempting to elaborate upon here.
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我試圖在這裡闡述的憑證。
03:37
I was, by the way -- I'm an Essex lad,
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順帶一提我 -- 我是個埃塞克斯郡的小伙子,
03:39
born and raised in Essex in the U.K.
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在埃塞克斯郡出生和成長。
03:41
Anyone who's from England
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任何人如來自英格蘭
03:43
knows the reputation we have from Essex.
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都知道我們這些來自埃塞克斯郡的聲譽。
03:45
But having been born in Essex,
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但出生在埃塞克斯郡,
03:47
at the age of 16,
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16歲,
03:49
I joined an organization.
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我加入了一個組織。
03:51
At the age of 17, I was recruiting people from Cambridge University
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在17歲,我從劍橋大學
03:54
to this organization.
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招募人員加入這個組織。
03:56
At the age of 19,
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在19歲,
03:58
I was on the national leadership of this organization in the U.K.
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我已是成為在英國的國家首領。
04:01
At the age of 21, I was co-founding this organization in Pakistan.
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在21歲,我在巴基斯坦共同創辦了這個組織。
04:04
At the age of 22,
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在22歲,
04:06
I was co-founding this organization in Denmark.
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我在丹麥共同創辦了這個組織。
04:08
By the age of 24,
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到了24歲,
04:10
I found myself convicted in prison in Egypt,
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我在埃及被定罪進入監獄裡,
04:13
being blacklisted from three countries in the world
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在世界上三個國家的黑名單
04:16
for attempting to overthrow their governments,
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被控企圖推翻他們的政府,
04:19
being subjected to torture
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在埃及監獄
04:21
in Egyptian jails
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遭受酷刑,
04:23
and sentenced to five years as a prisoner of conscience.
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並被判處為一個良心犯五年。
04:26
Now that journey,
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現在那一個旅程,
04:28
and what took me from Essex all the way across the world --
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什麼把我從埃塞克斯郡帶到跨越世界--
04:31
by the way, we were laughing at democratic activists.
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順便說一下,我們在嘲諷民主活動家。
04:34
We felt they were from the age of yesteryear.
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我們認為那些人是從昔日的時代。
04:36
We felt that they were out of date.
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我們覺得他們是過時的。
04:38
I learned how to use email
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我從極端組織
04:41
from the extremist organization that I used.
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學會了如何使用電子郵件。
04:44
I learned how to effectively communicate across borders
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我學會了如何有效地跨越國界溝通,
04:46
without being detected.
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而不被發現。
04:48
Eventually I was detected, of course, in Egypt.
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當然, 最後我被發現,在埃及。
04:51
But the way in which I learned
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不過,我學會了
04:53
to use technology to my advantage
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使用技術盡用優勢,
04:55
was because I was within an extremist organization
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是因為我是在極端主義組織
04:58
that was forced to think beyond
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被迫去思考超越
05:00
the confines of the nation-state.
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民族國家的範圍內。
05:02
The age of behavior: where ideas and narratives
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行為的年代:越來越多地以思想和說明
05:04
were increasingly defining behavior
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定義行為,
05:07
and identity and allegiances.
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身份和忠誠。
05:09
So as I said, we looked to the status quo
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因此,正如我所說的,我們看到現狀,
05:12
and ridiculed it.
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而嘲笑它。
05:14
And it's not just Islamist extremists that did this.
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而且不只是伊斯蘭極端分子這樣做的。
05:16
But even if you look across
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但是,即使你看如今,
05:18
the mood music in Europe of late,
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在歐洲極右的法西斯主義的
05:20
far-right fascism is also on the rise.
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音樂情緒也在上升。
05:22
A form of anti-Islam rhetoric
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反伊斯蘭言論的形式
05:24
is also on the rise
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也呈上升趨勢,
05:26
and it's transnational.
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和跨越國界。
05:28
And the consequences that this is having
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這後果便是
05:31
is that it's affecting the political climate
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影響了整個歐洲的
05:34
across Europe.
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政治氣候。
05:36
What's actually happening
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實際發生的是,
05:38
is that what were previously localized parochialisms,
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以前本地化的本位主義,
05:41
individual or groupings of extremists
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個人或彼此孤立的
05:44
who were isolated from one another,
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極端分子集團,
05:46
have become interconnected in a globalized way
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已在一個全球化的方式相互關聯,
05:49
and have thus become, or are becoming, mainstream.
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並因此成為或正在成為主流。
05:52
Because the Internet and connection technologies
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由於互聯網連接技術,
05:55
are connecting them across the world.
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連接世界各地。
05:58
If you look at the rise of far-right fascism across Europe of late,
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如果你看一下現時在整個歐洲崛起的極右法西斯主義,
06:01
you will see some things that are happening
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你會看到一些事情正在發生,
06:03
that are influencing domestic politics,
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影響到國內政治,
06:05
yet the phenomenon is transnational.
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但這種現象是跨越國界。
06:08
In certain countries, mosque minarets are being banned.
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在某些國家,清真寺的尖塔被禁止。
06:10
In others, headscarves are being banned.
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在其他國家,頭巾都被禁止。
06:12
In others, kosher and halal meat are being banned,
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在其他國家,猶太教和
06:14
as we speak.
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伊斯蘭教的肉正在被禁止。
06:16
And on the flip side,
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而在另一面,
06:18
we have transnational Islamist extremists
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我們有跨國伊斯蘭極端分子
06:21
doing the same thing across their own societies.
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在其自己的社會做同樣的事情。
06:24
And so they are pockets of parochialism that are being connected
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所以, 本位主義正在連接的方式
06:27
in a way that makes them feel like they are mainstream.
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使他們覺得他們是主流。
06:30
Now that never would have been possible before.
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在以前這個永遠不會有可能。
06:32
They would have felt isolated,
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他們會感到孤立的,
06:34
until these sorts of technologies came around
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直到這些技術來臨
06:36
and connected them in a way
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連接了周圍,
06:38
that made them feel part of a larger phenomenon.
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使他們覺得是一個大現象的一部分。
06:40
Where does that leave democracy aspirants?
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民主追求者可以去哪裡?
06:43
Well I believe they're getting left far behind.
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我相信他們遠遠被拋在後面。
06:46
And I'll give you an example here at this stage.
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我給你舉個現階段的例子。
06:49
If any of you remembers the Christmas Day bomb plot:
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如果你記得聖誕節炸彈陰謀:
06:52
there's a man called Anwar al-Awlaki.
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有一個名Anwar Al-Awlaki的人。
06:55
As an American citizen, ethnically a Yemeni,
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作為一個美國公民,種族也門,
06:57
in hiding currently in Yemen,
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目前藏匿在也門,
06:59
who inspired a Nigerian,
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他激發了一個尼日利亞人,
07:01
son of the head of Nigeria's national bank.
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尼日利亞國家銀行負責人的兒子。
07:03
This Nigerian student studied in London, trained in Yemen,
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這個尼日利亞學生在倫敦學習,在也門訓練,
07:06
boarded a flight in Amsterdam to attack America.
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登上了在阿姆斯特丹的航班襲擊美國。
07:09
In the meanwhile,
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在此同時,
07:11
the Old mentality with a capital O,
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一個舊思維的思想,
07:13
was represented by his father, the head of the Nigerian bank,
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他的父親作為代表--尼日利亞銀行的負責人,
07:16
warning the CIA that his own son was about to attack,
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警告中央情報局自己兒子的攻擊計劃,
07:19
and this warning fell on deaf ears.
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但警告置若罔聞。
07:21
The Old mentality with a capital O,
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一個舊思維的思想,
07:24
as represented by the nation-state,
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民族國家作為代表,
07:26
not yet fully into the age of behavior,
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尚未完全融入行為的時代,
07:28
not recognizing the power of transnational social movements,
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不承認跨國社會運動的力量,
07:31
got left behind.
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舊的思維被落後。
07:33
And the Christmas Day bomber almost succeeded
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聖誕節轟炸機幾乎成功地
07:35
in attacking the United States of America.
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攻擊美國。
07:39
Again with the example of the far right:
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再與最右端的例子:
07:42
that we find, ironically,
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我們發現,具有諷刺意味的是,
07:44
xenophobic nationalists
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仇外的民族主義者
07:49
are utilizing the benefits of globalization.
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正在利用全球化帶來的好處。
07:52
So why are they succeeding?
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那麼,為什麼他們成功?
07:54
And why are democracy aspirants falling behind?
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為什麼民主主義落後。
07:57
Well we need to understand the power of the social movements who understand this.
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我們需要了解明白社會運動的力量的這一點。
08:00
And a social movement is comprised, in my view,
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社會運動,在我看來,
08:03
it's comprised of four main characteristics.
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是由四個主要特點組成。
08:05
It's comprised of ideas and narratives
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它是以思想, 敘事
08:07
and symbols and leaders.
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象徵和領導組成。
08:09
I'll talk you through one example,
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讓我討論一個例子,
08:11
and that's the example that everyone here will be aware of,
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一個這裡的每一個人都知道的例子,
08:14
and that's the example of Al-Qaeda.
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那例子便是基地組織。
08:17
If I asked you to think of the ideas of Al-Qaeda,
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如果我問你你認為基地組織的概念是什麼,
08:19
that's something that comes to your mind immediately.
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立即便有東西來到你的腦內。
08:21
If I ask you to think of their narratives --
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如果我問你你認為他們的敘述是什麼 --
08:23
the West being at war with Islam, the need to defend Islam against the West --
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西方在與伊斯蘭教的戰爭,伊斯蘭對西方捍衛的需要 --
08:26
these narratives, they come to your mind immediately.
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這些敘事,它們立即來到你的腦內。
08:29
Incidentally, the difference between ideas and narratives:
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順便說一說,概念和敘述之間的差異:
08:32
the idea is the cause that one believes in;
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概念是令人相信的原因;
08:35
and the narrative is the way to sell that cause --
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而敘事便是推銷原因的方式 --
08:38
the propaganda, if you like, of the cause.
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那就是, 政治宣傳原因。
08:41
So the ideas and the narratives of Al-Qaeda come to your mind immediately.
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因此基地組織的敘述的概念便立即來到你的腦內。
08:44
If I ask you to think of their symbols and their leaders,
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如果我要你認出他們的象徵和領導人,
08:46
they come to your mind immediately.
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他們便立即來到你的腦內。
08:48
One of their leaders was killed in Pakistan recently.
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他們的領導人之一,最近在巴基斯坦被殺害。
08:50
So these symbols and these leaders
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因此,這些象徵和這些領導人
08:52
come to your mind immediately.
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立即來到你的腦內。
08:54
And that's the power of social movements.
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這便是社會運動的力量。
08:56
They're transnational, and they bond around these ideas and narratives
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它們是跨國的,它們圍繞這些理念,敘事.
08:59
and these symbols and these leaders.
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這些象徵和這些領導人。
09:02
However,
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但是,
09:04
if I ask your minds to focus currently on Pakistan,
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如果我我要你把重點放在目前的巴基斯坦,
09:07
and I ask you to think
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要你認出
09:10
of the symbols and the leaders for democracy
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今天在民主巴基斯坦的
09:12
in Pakistan today,
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象徵和領導人,
09:14
you'll be hard pressed
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你便會難於啟齒,
09:16
to think beyond perhaps
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也許僅是想到
09:18
the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
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貝娜齊爾•布托遇刺。
09:20
Which means, by definition,
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這意味著,顧名思義,
09:22
that particular leader no longer exists.
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即是領導者不再存在。
09:25
One of the problems we're facing is, in my view,
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在我看來, 我們面臨的問題之一是,
09:28
that there are no globalized,
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沒有全球化
09:30
youth-led, grassroots social movements
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青年領導,基層民主文化的社會運動
09:33
advocating for democratic culture
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倡導跨越穆斯林
09:35
across Muslim-majority societies.
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佔多數的社會。
09:37
There is no equivalent of the Al-Qaeda, without the terrorism,
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沒有相當於基地組織水平, 但沒有恐怖主義
09:40
for democracy across Muslim-majority societies.
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的民主集團跨越整個穆斯林佔多數的社會。
09:43
There are no ideas and narratives and leaders and symbols
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沒有概念,敘事和領導人
09:46
advocating the democratic culture on the ground.
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在地面上提倡民主文化。
09:50
So that begs the next question.
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這便引出下一個問題。
09:53
Why is it that extremist organizations,
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為什麼極端組織,
09:56
whether of the far-right or of the Islamist extremism --
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這包括那些無論是極右或伊斯蘭極端主義的 --
09:59
Islamism meaning those who wish to impose
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伊斯蘭教主義是指那些想
10:01
one version of Islam over the rest of society --
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施加其餘社會對伊斯蘭教一個版本的人--
10:03
why is it that they are succeeding
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為什麼他們在一個全球化的
10:05
in organizing in a globalized way,
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舉辦方式可以成功,
10:07
whereas those who aspire to democratic culture
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而那些渴望民主文化的
10:09
are falling behind?
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便落後?
10:11
And I believe that's for four reasons.
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我認為有四個原因。
10:14
I believe, number one, it's complacency.
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我相信,第一,便是自滿。
10:17
Because those who aspire to democratic culture
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因為那些渴望期於民主文化的人
10:19
are in power,
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都擁有權力,
10:21
or have societies
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或都駐於
10:23
that are leading globalized, powerful societies,
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全球化領先的,強大的社會,
10:25
powerful countries.
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強大的國家的社會。
10:27
And that level of complacency means
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而該級別的自滿意味著
10:29
they don't feel the need to advocate for that culture.
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他們不覺得需要倡導這種文化。
10:32
The second, I believe,
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第二,我相信,
10:34
is political correctness.
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是政治上的正確性。
10:38
That we have a hesitation
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我們有一個毫不猶豫地
10:41
in espousing the universality of democratic culture
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擁護民主文化的普遍性,
10:44
because we are associating that --
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因為我們是關聯着 --
10:46
we associate believing in the universality of our values --
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與極端分子 -- 我們贊同相信在我們對價值觀的
10:49
with extremists.
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普遍性。
10:51
Yet actually, whenever we talk about human rights,
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然而實際上,當我們談論人權,
10:53
we do say that human rights are universal.
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我們不會說人權是普遍的。
10:57
But actually going out to propagate that view
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但實際上是去宣傳這個觀點
10:59
is associated with either neoconservativism
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是與新保守主義或
11:02
or with Islamist extremism.
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與伊斯蘭極端主義關聯。
11:04
To go around saying that I believe
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繞過去說,我相信
11:06
democratic culture is the best that we've arrived at
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民主文化是最好的,
11:09
as a form of political organizing
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作為一種政治組織形式,
11:12
is associated with extremism.
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與極端主義關聯。
11:14
And the third,
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第三,
11:16
democratic choice in Muslim-majority societies
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在穆斯林佔多數的的社會中
11:18
has been relegated to a political choice,
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民主選擇已經退居到一個政治選擇,
11:21
meaning political parties
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在許多這些社會
11:24
in many of these societies
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的政黨會要求人們
11:28
ask people to vote for them
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為他們投票
11:30
as the democratic party,
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投民主黨,
11:32
but then the other parties ask them to vote for them
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但其他政黨要求他們為他們投票
11:34
as the military party --
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投軍隊黨的 --
11:36
wanting to rule by military dictatorship.
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希望通過軍事獨裁統治。
11:38
And then you have a third party saying,
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然後有一個第三方的說法,
11:40
"Vote for us; we'll establish a theocracy."
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「投我們票,我們將建立一個政教合一的黨」。
11:42
So democracy has become merely one political choice
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因此,民主只成為一個政治選擇,
11:45
among many other forms
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在這些社會
11:47
of political choices available in those societies.
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許多其他形式的政治選擇。
11:50
And what happens as a result of this
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而作為這樣做的結果會發生什麼情況
11:52
is, when those parties are elected,
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是,當這些黨當選,
11:54
and inevitably they fail,
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並不可避免地失敗,
11:56
or inevitably they make political mistakes,
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或者不可避免地犯政治錯誤,
11:58
democracy takes the blame
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民主主義便成為
12:00
for their political mistakes.
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犯政治錯誤的靶標。
12:02
And then people say, "We've tried democracy. It doesn't really work.
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人們會說,「我們已經嘗試民主,但它並沒有真正發揮作用,
12:05
Let's bring the military back again."
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讓我們帶軍方回來。」
12:07
And the fourth reason, I believe,
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第四個原因,我相信,
12:09
is what I've labeled here on the slide as the ideology of resistance.
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是我這裡幻燈片上標有稱為意識形態的阻力。
12:12
What I mean by that is,
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我是說,
12:14
if the world superpower today was a communist,
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如果今天的世界超級大國,是一個共產主義,
12:16
it would be much easier for democracy activists
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民主活動家便會更容易
12:18
to use democracy activism
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使用民主的激進主義
12:20
as a form of resistance against colonialism,
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作為反對殖民主義的阻力形式,
12:22
than it is today with the world superpower being America,
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比它是當今世界的超級大國美國,
12:25
occupying certain lands
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佔用一定的土地
12:27
and also espousing democratic ideals.
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但也贊成民主的理想。
12:29
So roughly these four reasons
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所以這四個方面的原因
12:31
make it a lot more difficult for democratic culture to spread
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大致做出了不少難度,讓民主文化傳播
12:34
as a civilizational choice,
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作為一個文明的選擇,
12:36
not merely as a political choice.
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而不是僅僅作為一種政治選擇。
12:39
When talking about those reasons,
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談到這些原因時,
12:41
let's break down certain preconceptions.
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讓我們打破某些先入為主的思路。
12:43
Is it just about grievances?
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難道僅僅是怨氣嗎?
12:45
Is it just about a lack of education?
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難道僅僅是缺乏教育嗎?
12:48
Well statistically,
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統計學指出,
12:50
the majority of those who join extremist organizations are highly educated.
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那些加入極端組織的大多數都受過高等教育。
12:53
Statistically, they are educated, on average,
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據統計,他們平均的教育水平
12:55
above the education levels
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比西方社會
12:57
of Western society.
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平均教育水平更高。
12:59
Anecdotally, we can demonstrate
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有趣的是,我們可以證明,
13:01
that if poverty was the only factor,
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如果貧困是唯一因素,
13:03
well Bin Laden is from one of the richest families in Saudi Arabia.
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那拉登在沙特阿拉伯是最富有的家庭之一。
13:06
His deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was a pediatrician --
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他的副手艾曼•扎瓦希里,是一名兒科醫生 --
13:09
not an ill-educated man.
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不是一個沒受過教育的人。
13:11
International aid and development has been going on for years,
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國際援助和發展已持續多年,
13:14
but extremism in those societies, in many of those societies,
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但這些社會中的極端主義,在這些許多社會中,
13:16
has been on the rise.
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一直在上升。
13:18
And what I believe is missing
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我相信真正失踪的是
13:20
is genuine grassroots activism
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激進的
13:22
on the ground,
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地面基層,
13:24
in addition to international aid,
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除了國際援助,
13:26
in addition to education, in addition to health.
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除了教育,除了健康。
13:29
Not exclusive to these things, but in addition to them,
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這些東西不是排他性的,但除了他們,
13:32
is propagating a genuine demand for democracy on the ground.
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便是在地面上傳播民主的真正需求。
13:35
And this is where I believe
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這是我認為
13:37
neoconservatism had it upside-down.
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新保守主義已經倒了。
13:39
Neoconservatism had the philosophy
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新保守主義的理念,
13:41
that you go in with a supply-led approach
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是要你去供應一個為主導的的做法,
13:44
to impose democratic values from the top down.
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在從最頂部徵收民主價值。
13:47
Whereas Islamists and far-right organizations, for decades,
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而伊斯蘭主義和極右組織,幾十年來,
13:50
have been building demand for their ideology on the grassroots.
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已在基層為他們的思想建設需求。
13:53
They've been building civilizational demand for their values
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他們一直在基層建設他們對價值觀
13:55
on the grassroots,
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的文明需求,
13:57
and we've been seeing those societies slowly transition
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我們已經看到這些社會慢慢過渡到
14:00
to societies that are increasingly asking for
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正越來越多地要求
14:03
a form of Islamism.
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伊斯蘭教社會的形式。
14:05
Mass movements in Pakistan
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由阿拉伯起義後,
14:07
have been represented after the Arab uprisings
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在巴基斯坦已有一些聲稱表示
14:09
mainly by organizations
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政教合一形式的組織
14:11
claiming for some form of theocracy,
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群眾運動,
14:13
rather than for a democratic uprising.
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而不是主要民主起義。
14:15
Because since pre-partition,
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因為自從分區前,
14:17
they've been building demand for their ideology on the ground.
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他們已經為他們在地面上的意識形態的需求建設。
14:20
And what's needed is a genuine transnational
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我們需要的是一個真正的跨國
14:22
youth-led movement
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青年為主導的運動,
14:24
that works to actively advocate
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積極倡導
14:26
for the democratic culture --
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民主文化 --
14:28
which is necessarily more
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這是必然
14:30
than just elections.
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不只是選舉。
14:32
But without freedom of speech, you can't have free and fair elections.
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但是,如果沒有言論自由,你沒有自由和公正的選舉。
14:35
Without human rights, you don't have the protection granted to you to campaign.
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沒有人權,你沒有向你授予保護的競選活動。
14:38
Without freedom of belief,
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沒有信仰自由,
14:40
you don't have the right to join organizations.
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你沒有參加組織的權利。
14:42
So what's needed is those organizations on the ground
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所以我們需要的是這些地面上的
14:44
advocating for the democratic culture itself
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組織倡導民主文化的本身
14:49
to create the demand on the ground for this culture.
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創造這種文化的需求。
14:53
What that will do
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那會做的是
14:55
is avoid the problem I was talking about earlier,
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避免我早先提到的問題,
14:58
where currently we have political parties presenting democracy
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目前我們已經呈現的政治選擇,
15:01
as merely a political choice in those societies
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只是在這些社會
15:04
alongside other choices
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旁邊其他的選擇,
15:06
such as military rule and theocracy.
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如軍事統治和政教合一的社會民主政黨。
15:08
Whereas if we start building this demand on the ground on a civilizational level,
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而如果我們開始在地面上建立需求,在這一個文明的水平,
15:11
rather than merely on a political level,
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而不是僅僅在政治層面,
15:13
a level above politics --
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比政治更高水平 --
15:16
movements that are not political parties,
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不是政黨的運動,
15:18
but are rather creating this civilizational demand
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而是創造這種文明的
15:20
for this democratic culture.
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民主文化需求。
15:22
What we'll have in the end
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我們在最後,
15:24
is this ideal that you see on the slide here --
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便會在這裡的幻燈片看到這個理想 --
15:26
the ideal that people should vote in an existing democracy,
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在現有的民主社會人應該的理想,
15:30
not for a democracy.
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而不是一個民主國家的投票。
15:32
But to get to that stage,
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但要到那個階段,
15:34
where democracy builds the fabric of society
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要在民主基礎的社會結構,
15:37
and the political choices within that fabric,
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並在該結構內縫着的政治選擇,
15:39
but are certainly not theocratic and military dictatorship --
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但肯定不是神權政治和軍事獨裁 --
15:44
i.e. you're voting in a democracy,
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即是你在現有的民主
15:46
in an existing democracy,
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投票民主,
15:48
and that democracy is not merely one of the choices at the ballot box.
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而民主不只是在投票箱中的選擇之一。
15:51
To get to that stage,
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要獲得這個階段,
15:53
we genuinely need to start building demand
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我們需要真正開始建設在地面上,
15:56
in those societies on the ground.
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在這些社會的需求上開始。
16:01
Now to conclude, how does that happen?
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現在結論,請問是怎麼發呢?
16:04
Well, Egypt is a good starting point.
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那麼,埃及是一個很好的起點。
16:06
The Arab uprisings have demonstrated that this is already beginning.
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阿拉伯起義已經證明,這是已經開始。
16:09
But what happened in the Arab uprisings and what happened in Egypt
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但在阿拉伯起義發生的,並在埃及發生的事情
16:12
was particularly cathartic for me.
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對我來說是特別令我頓悟。
16:15
What happened there was a political coalition
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在那裡發生了一個政治聯盟
16:18
gathered together for a political goal,
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聚集在一起因為政治目標,
16:20
and that was to remove the leader.
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便是消除領導。
16:22
We need to move one step beyond that now.
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現在我們需要超越這一步。
16:24
We need to see how we can help those societies
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我們需要看到我們如何能幫助那些社會
16:26
move from political coalitions,
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擺脫政治聯盟,
16:28
loosely based political coalitions,
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那些鬆散的政治聯盟,
16:30
to civilizational coalitions
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到達在地面上工作理想
16:32
that are working for the ideals and narratives
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和民主文化的
16:34
of the democratic culture on the ground.
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文明聯盟。
16:36
Because it's not enough to remove a leader
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因為它不僅是消除一個領導者或
16:38
or ruler or dictator.
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統治者或獨裁者。
16:40
That doesn't guarantee that what comes next
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這並不保證,接下來將是一個
16:42
will be a society built on democratic values.
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建立在民主價值觀的社會。
16:46
But generally, the trends that start in Egypt
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但一般來說,在埃及開始的趨勢
16:48
have historically spread across the MENA region,
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在歷史上會蔓延整個中東和北非地區,
16:50
the Middle East and North Africa region.
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中東和北非地區。
16:52
So when Arab socialism started in Egypt, it spread across the region.
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因此,在埃及的阿拉伯社會主義開始時,它在該地區蔓延。
16:55
In the '80s and '90s when Islamism started in the region,
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在80年代和90年代伊斯蘭教在該地區開始,
16:58
it spread across the MENA region as a whole.
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遍布中東和北非地區整體。
17:01
And the aspiration that we have at the moment --
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在這一刻我們的願望是--
17:03
as young Arabs are proving today
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今天作為年輕的阿拉伯人都證明到,
17:05
and instantly rebranding themselves
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亦更立即為自己名
17:07
as being prepared to die for more than just terrorism --
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準備以死亡為不僅僅是恐怖主義 --
17:10
is that there is a chance
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而是,若有一個機會,
17:13
that democratic culture can start in the region
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民主文化可以在該地區開始
17:15
and spread across to the rest of the countries that are surrounding that.
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和遍布到周圍其他國家。
17:17
But that will require
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但這需要
17:19
helping these societies transition
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幫助這些社會轉型,
17:21
from having merely political coalitions
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從單純的政治聯盟,
17:23
to building genuinely grassroots-based social movements
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到真正的基層基礎建設,
17:26
that advocate for the democratic culture.
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社會運動,倡導民主文化。
17:28
And we've made a start for that in Pakistan
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我們已經在巴基斯坦取得了為開始,
17:31
with a movement called Khudi,
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稱為 Khudi的一個運動,
17:33
where we are working on the ground to encourage the youth
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我們在地面上工作,以鼓勵青年
17:36
to create genuine buy-in for the democratic culture.
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創造真正的民主文化的影響。
17:39
And it's with that thought that I'll end.
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而我會便以這念頭結束我的演說。
17:41
And my time is up, and thank you for your time.
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我的時間到了終止,謝謝你的時間。
17:43
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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