Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring | TED

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.

Kris Anderson: Ilone, hej, dobro došao opet na TED.

It's great to have you here.

Lepo je što si ovde.

Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.

Ilon Mask: Hvala na pozivu.

CA: So, in the next half hour or so,

KA: Dakle, u narednih oko pola sata,

we're going to spend some time

provešćemo neko vreme

exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like,

istražujući tvoju viziju toga koliko bi budućnost mogla da izgleda uzbudljivo,

which I guess makes the first question a little ironic:

zbog čega je, valjda, prvo pitanje malčice ironično:

Why are you boring?

zašto zabušavaš?

IM: Da.

EM: Yeah.

I ask myself that frequently.

To često pitam samog sebe.

We're trying to dig a hole under LA,

Pokušavamo da iskopamo rupu ispod Los Anđelesa

and this is to create the beginning

s ciljem da stvorimo početak

of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels

nečega što će, nadamo se, biti 3D mreža tunela

to alleviate congestion.

kako bi se olakšalo zakrčenje.

So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic.

Dakle, trenutno je saobraćaj nešto najiritantnije.

It affects people in every part of the world.

Pogađa ljude u svim delovima sveta.

It takes away so much of your life.

Toliko vam oduzima od života.

Užasno je.

It's horrible.

Naročito je užasno u Los Anđelesu.

It's particularly horrible in LA.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: I think you've brought with you

KA: Mislim da si sa sobom poneo

the first visualization that's been shown of this.

prvu vizualizaciju ovoga koja je ikad prikazana.

Can I show this?

Mogu li to da pokažem?

IM: Da, apsolutno. Dakle, ovo je prvi put -

EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time --

Just to show what we're talking about.

Prosto da pokažem o čemu pričamo.

So a couple of key things that are important

Dakle, nekoliko ključnih stvari koje su važne

in having a 3D tunnel network.

kad imate 3D mrežu tunela.

First of all, you have to be able

Prvo - morate da budete u stanju

to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel

da integrišete ulaz i izlaz iz tunela

seamlessly into the fabric of the city.

besprekorno sa gradskim tkanjem.

So by having an elevator,

Uz lift,

sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator,

neku vrstu nosača za automobile, koji je na liftu,

you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network

možete da integrišete ulaze i izlaze u i iz mreže tunela,

just by using two parking spaces.

upotrebom svega dva parking mesta.

And then the car gets on a skate.

Potom automobil stigne na nosač.

There's no speed limit here,

Tu brzina nije ograničena,

so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.

mi ga dizajniramo da može da ide 200 kilometara na sat.

CA: How much?

KA: Koliko?

EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour.

IM: 200 kilometara na sat ili oko 130 milja na sat.

So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX

Pa, trebalo bi da možete da stignete, recimo, od Vestvuda do LAX-a

za šest minuta - pet, šest minuta.

in six minutes -- five, six minutes.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

CA: So possibly, initially done,

KA: Moguće da će provbitna verzija

it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.

da bude zasnovana na nekom vidu putarine.

EM: Yeah.

IM: Da.

CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic

KA: Što, valjda, ublažava nešto saobraćaja

from the surface streets as well.

sa ulica na površini, takođe.

EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video,

IM: Dakle, ne znam da li su ljudi primetili na snimku,

but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have.

ali ne postoji stvarno ograničenje koliko nivoa tunela možete da imate.

You can go much further deep than you can go up.

Možete ići daleko više u dubinu nego što možete u visinu.

The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall,

Najdublji rudnici su daleko dublji nego što su najviše zgrade visoke,

so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion

te možete da olakšate bilo koji proizvoljni stepen gradskog zakrčenja

with a 3D tunnel network.

uz 3D mrežu tunela.

Ovo je veoma važno.

This is a very important point.

So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels,

Ključna kritika na račun tunela je da ako dodate jedan sloj tunela,

to bi prosto olakšalo gužve, popunilo bi se

that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up,

and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion.

i ponovo biste bili na početku sa gužvom.

Ali mogli biste da imate bezbroj tunela,

But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels,

any number of levels.

bezbroj nivoa.

CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig,

KA: Ali ljudi - gledano tradicionalno, kopanje je izuzetno skupo,

and that would block this idea.

i to bi zaustavilo ovu ideju.

EM: Yeah.

IM: Da.

Pa, u pravu su.

Well, they're right.

To give you an example, the LA subway extension,

Da vam dam jedan primer, podzemna produžnica u Los Anđelesu,

koja je - mislim da je duga četiri kilometra,

which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension

that was just completed for two billion dollars.

upravo je završena za dve milijarde dolara.

Otprilike se radi o milijardi dolara po 1,6 km da se napravi podzemna u LA.

So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA.

And this is not the highest utility subway in the world.

A ovo nije najkorisnija podzemna na svetu.

So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally.

Pa, da, obično je prilično teško kopati tunele.

I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement

Mislim da nam je potreban bar desetostruki napredak

u ceni po kilometru tunela.

in the cost per mile of tunneling.

KA: A kako možete to da postignete?

CA: And how could you achieve that?

EM: Actually, if you just do two things,

IM: Zapravo, ako uradite samo dve stvari,

you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement,

dostigli biste otprilike napredak za red velične,

and I think you can go beyond that.

a mislim da možete više od toga.

So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter

Pa, prvo što treba da uradite je da skratite prečnik tunela

za faktor od dva ili više.

by a factor of two or more.

So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations

Dakle, tunel sa jednom trakom, prema propisima,

has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter

mora da ima prečnik od 8, možda 8,5 metara

to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles

kako bi ostao prostor u slučaju nesreće i za vozila hitne pomoći,

and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars.

kao i dovoljno ventilacije za vozila sa motorima sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem.

Međutim, ako suzite taj prečnik na ono na šta mi ciljamo,

But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting,

which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through,

a to je 3,7 metara, što je sasvim dovoljno da električni nosač prođe,

you drop the diameter by a factor of two

umanjili ste prečnik za faktor od dva

and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four,

a prostor poprečnog preseka za faktor od četiri,

and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.

a cena kopanja tunela je srazmerna poprečnom preseku.

So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.

Te je to otprilike unapređenje za pola reda veličine.

Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop,

Trenutno mašine kopaju tunele polovinu vremena, potom se zaustavljaju,

and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements

a preostalo vreme se troši na ojačavanje

for the tunnel wall.

zidova tunela.

Pa ako umesto toga dizajnirate mašinu

So if you design the machine instead

to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing,

da obavlja konstantno kopanje i ojačavanje,

that will give you a factor of two improvement.

time ćete postići napredak za faktor od dva.

Saberite to sve i imaćete faktor od osam.

Combine that and that's a factor of eight.

Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits,

Takođe, ove mašine nisu ni blizu granice svoijih termalnih moći,

so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially.

te možete bitno uvećati snagu mašina.

Mislim da možete postići bar faktor od dva,

I think you can get at least a factor of two,

možda faktor od četiri ili pet povrh toga.

maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that.

So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps

Te smatram da imamo prilično direktan niz koraka

to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement

da stignemo do napretka od više od jednog reda veličine

in the cost per mile,

u ceni po kilometru,

and our target actually is --

a zapravo naš cilj je -

we've got a pet snail called Gary,

imamo puža ljubimca, po imenu Gari,

nazvan je po pužu Gariju iz "Saut Parka",

this is from Gary the snail from "South Park,"

I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."

mislim, pardon, "Sunđer Boba Kockalonea".

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So Gary is capable of --

Dakle, Gari je u stanju -

currently he's capable of going 14 times faster

trenutno može da ide 14 puta brže

than a tunnel-boring machine.

od mašine za kopanje tunela.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: You want to beat Gary.

KA: Želite da pobedite Garija.

EM: We want to beat Gary.

IM: Želimo da pobedimo Garija.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

On nije strpljiv mališa,

He's not a patient little fellow,

and that will be victory.

a to bi bio uspeh.

Victory is beating the snail.

Uspeh je pobeda nad pužem.

CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities,

KA: Ali mnogi ljudi kad zamišljaju, sanjaju gradove budućnosti,

they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.

zamišljaju da je zapravo rešenje u letećim automobilima, dronovima itd.

You go aboveground.

Ide se iznad zemlje.

Why isn't that a better solution?

Zašto to nije bolje rešenje?

You save all that tunneling cost.

Uštedite sve te troškove kopanja?

EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.

IM: Tačno. Ja sam za leteće stvari.

Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly.

Očigledno, pravim rakete, te mi se sviđaju stvari koje lete.

This is not some inherent bias against flying things,

Ne radi se o urođenoj predrasudi protiv letećih stvari,

but there is a challenge with flying cars

ali imamo izazov kod letećih auta

in that they'll be quite noisy,

zbog toga što će biti prilično bučna,

the wind force generated will be very high.

snaga vetra koju će da stvaraju će da bude veoma velika.

Recimo, ako vam nešto leti iznad glave,

Let's just say that if something's flying over your head,

a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place,

čitava gomila letećih auta koja ide tamo i ovamo,

that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.

ne radi se o situaciji koja umanjuje anksioznost.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today."

Ne razmišljate u sebi: "Pa, danas se osećam bolje."

You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap,

Razmišljate: "Da li su servisirali radkapnu

ili će da spadne i giljotinira me?"

or is it going to come off and guillotine me?"

Slične stvari.

Things like that.

CA: So you've got this vision

KA: Dakle, tvoja vizija

of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath.

gradova budućnosti uključuje ovu bogatu, 3D mrežu tunela ispod njih.

Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?

Da li je ovo u vezi sa Hiperlupom?

Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea

Možeš li da primeniš ove tunele kod ideje sa Hiperlupom

you released a few years ago.

koju si objavio pre nekoliko godina?

EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around

IM: Da, nekako smo se petljali

neko vreme oko Hiperlupa.

with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.

We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX,

Sagradili smo test stazu za Hiperlup blizu Spejs iksa,

just for a student competition,

samo za takmičenje za studente,

to encourage innovative ideas in transport.

kako bismo ohrabrili inovativne ideje u saobraćaju.

And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world

I zapravo je na kraju to ispalo najveća vakuumska komora na svetu

after the Large Hadron Collider,

posle velikog hadronskog sudarivača,

by volume.

prema zapremini.

So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing,

Te je bilo veoma zabavno baviti se time, ali to je bilo nekako poput dokolice,

and then we think we might --

a onda smo pomislili da bismo mogli -

so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods,

pa smo napravili malena gurajuća auta da guraju studentske šasije,

but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go

ali ćemo pokušati da proverimo koliko brzi gurači mogu da budu,

if it's not pushing something.

kad ne guraju nešto.

So we're cautiously optimistic

Pa smo oprezno optimistični,

bićemo brži od najbržeg superbrzog voza u svetu

we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train

čak i u rasponu od 1,3 kilometra.

even in a .8-mile stretch.

CA: Whoa. Good brakes.

KA: Opa. Odlične kočnice.

EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.

IM: Da, mislim, to je - da.

It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.

Ili će se razbiti u paramparčad ili će da ide prilično brzo.

CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel

KA: Ali onda možeš da zamisliš Hiperlup u tunelu

running quite long distances.

kako se proteže velikim udaljenostima.

EM: Exactly.

IM: Upravo.

Posmatrajući tehnologiju kopanja tunela,

And looking at tunneling technology,

it turns out that in order to make a tunnel,

ispada da, kako biste napravili tunel,

you have to --

morate -

In order to seal against the water table,

Kako biste blokirali podzemne vode,

you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good

obično morate da dizajnirate zid tunela da izdrži

to about five or six atmospheres.

pritisak od oko pet ili šest atmosfera.

Pa, prelazak na vakuum je tek pritisak od jedne atmosfere,

So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,

or near-vacuum.

ili blizu vakuuma.

So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically,

Te, zapravo, nekako se ispostavlja da automatski,

ako sagradite tunel koji je dovoljno jak da odoleva podzemnim vodama,

if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table,

automatski je u stanju da izdrži vakuum.

it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.

CA: Huh.

KA: Ha.

IM: Dakle, da.

EM: So, yeah.

CA: And so you could actually picture,

KA: Dakle, ti možeš da zapravo zamisliš

what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?

koje je dužine tunel iz Ilonove budućnosti kojim saobraća Hiperlup?

EM: I think there's no real length limit.

IM: Mislim da ne postoji stvarno ograničenje dužine.

You could dig as much as you want.

Možete da kopate koliko želite.

I think if you were to do something

Mislim da ako biste se namerili na nešto

like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,

kao Hiperlup od Vašingtona do Njujorka,

mislim da biste verovatno želeli da idete pod zemljom celim putem

I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way

because it's a high-density area.

jer se radi o gusto naseljenoj oblasti.

You're going under a lot of buildings and houses,

Idete ispod mnogo zgrada i kuća,

and if you go deep enough,

a ako idete dovoljno duboko,

you cannot detect the tunnel.

ne možete da detektujete tunel.

Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying

Ponekad ljudi misle, pa, biće prilično iritantno,

to have a tunnel dug under my house.

ako iskopaju tunel ispod moje kuće.

Like, if that tunnel is dug

Ako je taj tunel iskopan

more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house,

više od tri ili četiri prečnika tunela ispod vaše kuće,

nećete biti u stanju da detektujete da se uopšte kopa.

you will not be able to detect it being dug at all.

In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug,

Zapravo, ako ste u stanju da detektujete kopanje tunela,

whatever device you are using,

kakvu god spravu koristili,

you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military,

izraelska vojska će da vam da gomilu novca za tu spravu,

who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas,

jer pokušavaju da detektuju Hamasove tunele,

and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels.

kao i od carinsko-graničnih jedinica SAD-a koje pokušavaju da otkriju tunele droge.

So the reality is

Dakle, u stvarnosti

that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations,

zemlja je neverovatno dobra u apsorbovanju vibracija,

and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level,

a čim je tunel na dubini ispod određenog nivoa,

it is undetectable.

nemoguće ga je detektovati.

Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument,

Možda kad biste imali veoma osetljiv seizmički instrument,

mogli biste da ga detektujete.

you might be able to detect it.

CA: So you've started a new company to do this

KA: Dakle, osnovao si novu firmu za to,

called The Boring Company.

zove se Boring kompani.

Very nice. Very funny.

Fino. Veoma smešno.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

EM: What's funny about that?

IM: Šta je u tome smešno?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: How much of your time is this?

KA: Koliko ti vremena oduzima?

EM: It's maybe ...

IM: Otprilike...

two or three percent.

dva ili tri procenta.

CA: You've called it a hobby.

KA: Kupio si hobi.

This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.

Ovako izgleda hobi za Ilona Maska.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

EM: I mean, it really is, like --

IM: Mislim, ziasta jeste, kao -

U suštini radi se o pripravnicima i ljudima koji to rade honorarno.

This is basically interns and people doing it part time.

We bought some second-hand machinery.

Kupili smo polovnu mehanizaciju.

Nekako se usputno petljamo time, ali dobro napreduje, stoga -

It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --

KA: Dakle, nešto veći deo tvog vremena

CA: So an even bigger part of your time

is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla.

oduzima elektrifikacija automobila i saobraćaja putem Tesle.

Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project

Da li je jedna od motivacija za projekat tunela

razumevanje da zapravo,

the realization that actually,

in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving,

u svetu u kom su automobili električni i samoupravljajući,

možda će doći do još većeg broja automobila na putevima

there may end up being more cars on the roads

on any given hour than there are now?

u bilo kom momentu nego što ih trenutno ima?

IM: Da, upravo.

EM: Yeah, exactly.

Mnogi ljudi misle da ako napravimo autonomne automobile,

A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous,

they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion.

da će da idu brže i da će to olakšati gužve.

I do nekog stepena to će da bude tako,

And to some degree that will be true,

but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car

ali čim dobijete zajednička autonomna auta gde je mnogo jeftinije ići autom

i možete ići od tačke do tačke,

and you can go point to point,

the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.

pristupačnost putovanja autom će da bude veća od putovanja autobusom.

Koštaće manje od karte za autobus.

Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.

So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy,

Dakle, količina vožnje koja će da se desi će da bude mnogo veća od zajedničkog auta

and actually traffic will get far worse.

i zapravo će saobraćaj da bude još gori.

CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world

KA: Osnovao si Teslu u cilju ubeđivanja sveta

that electrification was the future of cars,

da je elektrifikacija budućnost automobila,

and a few years ago, people were laughing at you.

a pre nekoliko godina, ljudi su ti se smejali.

Sad, baš i ne.

Now, not so much.

EM: OK.

IK: U redu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I don't know. I don't know.

Ne znam. Ne znam.

KA: Ali zar nije tačno da su skoro svi proizvođači automobila

CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer

has announced serious electrification plans

najavili ozbiljne planove elektrifikacije

for the short- to medium-term future?

u kratkoročnoj do srednjeročnoj budućnosti?

IM: Da. Da.

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program.

Mislim da skoro svi proizvođači automobila imaju neki program za električna vozila.

They vary in seriousness.

Variraju u ozbiljnosti.

Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric,

Neki su veoma ozbiljni povodom potpunog prelaska na struju,

and some are just dabbling in it.

a neki se samo površno time bave.

And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells,

A neki su, za čudo, i dalje na tragu gorivnih ćelija,

but I think that won't last much longer.

ali mislim da to neće trajati dugo.

CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,

KA: Ali zar nemaš osećaj, pak, Ilone,

where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it."

da možeš prosto proglasiti pobedu i reći, znaš: "Uspeli smo."

Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?

Neka svet pređe na struju, a ti ćeš da se usredsrediš na druge stvari?

EM: Yeah.

IM: Da.

I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine,

Nameravam da se zadržim na Tesli dokle god mogu da zamislim u budućnosti,

and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming.

i ima tu mnogo uzbudljivih stvari koje stižu.

Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.

Očito, uskoro izlazi model 3.

We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.

Otkrićemo Teslin polukamion.

KA: U redu. Stići ćemo do toga.

CA: OK, we're going to come to this.

Dakle, model 3 bi trebalo da izađe oko jula.

So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish.

IM: Da, dobri su izgledi da će proizvodnja krenuti u julu.

EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July.

CA: Wow.

KA: Opa.

Jedna od stvari oko koje su ljudi veoma uzbuđeni

One of the things that people are so excited about

is the fact that it's got autopilot.

je to da ima autopilota.

And you put out this video a while back

A ti si postavio snimak pre nekog vremena

pokazujući kako će ta tehnologija da izgleda.

showing what that technology would look like.

EM: Yeah.

IM: Da.

CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now.

Očito imamo autopilota trenutno u modelu S.

KA: Šta vidimo ovde?

What are we seeing here?

EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS.

IM: Da, ovde koristimo samo kamere i GPS.

So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here.

Ovde se ne koristi LIDAR, niti radar.

Samo koristimo pasivnu optiku, a to u suštini ljudi koriste.

This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses.

The whole road system is meant to be navigated

Trebalo bi čitavim sistemom puteva da upravljamo

with passive optical, or cameras,

pasivnom optikom ili kamerama,

and so once you solve cameras

te čim rešite problem kamera

ili vida,

or vision,

then autonomy is solved.

rešili ste samoupravljanje.

If you don't solve vision, it's not solved.

Ako ne rešite problem vida, nemate rešenje.

Stoga smo se toliko usredsredili na nabavku vizuelne neuronske mreže

So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net

koja je veoma efikasna na putnim uslovima.

that's very effective for road conditions.

CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route.

KA: Tačno. Mnogi drugi se odlučuju za LIDAR.

Ti želiš kamere plus radar i to je sve.

You want cameras plus radar is most of it.

EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras.

IM: Možeš u potpunosti da budeš superčovek samo sa kamerama.

Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would,

Verovatno možeš da budeš deset puta bolji od ljudi,

just cameras.

samo s kamerama.

CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them.

KA: Dakle, novi automobili koje trenutno prodaju imaju u sebi osam kamera.

Još uvek ne mogu da postignu to što je ovde prikazano.

They can't yet do what that showed.

When will they be able to?

Kada će moći to da urade?

EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country

IM: Mislim da smo i dalje na dobrom putu da uspemo preći državu

from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.

od LA do Njujorka do kraja godine, u potpunosti samoupravljajući.

CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying,

KA: U redu, dakle, do kraja godine, kažeš,

someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel,

neko će sesti u Teslu, bez dodirivanja volana,

tap in "New York," off it goes.

ukucaće "Njujork" i idemo.

EM: Yeah.

IM: Da.

CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.

KA: Ni u jednom trenutku neće morati da dotakne volan - do kraja 2017.

EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year,

IM: Da. U suštini, u novembru ili decembru ove godine,

we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California

trebalo bi da uspemo da pređemo ceo put od parkinga u Kaliforniji

to a parking lot in New York,

do parkinga u Njujorku,

bez dodirivanja upravljača tokom čitavog putovanja.

no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

CA: Amazing.

KA: Neverovatno.

Ali to je delimično moguće

But part of that is possible

because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads.

jer ti već imaš Teslinu flotu koja se vozi svim tim putevima.

You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.

Sakupljaš ogromnu količinu podataka o nacionalnom sistemu puteva.

EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting

IM: Da, ali biće interesantno

to što sam ja prilično ubeđen da će biti u stanju da pređe tu rutu

is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route

even if you change the route dynamically.

čak iako dinamički promenite rutu.

So, it's fairly easy --

Dakle, prilično je lako -

ako kažete da ću da uspem na jednoj specifičnoj ruti, to je jedna stvar,

If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing,

but it should be able to go, really be very good,

ali bi trebalo da može da ide, da bude veoma dobro,

certainly once you enter a highway,

zasigurno čim kročite na auto-put,

to go anywhere on the highway system

da može da ide bilo gde sistemom auto-puta

in a given country.

u datoj državi.

Dakle, nije ograničeno na od LA do Njujorka.

So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York.

We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida,

Mogli bismo ga promeniti da ide Sijetl-Florida,

that day, in real time.

tog dana u realnom vremenu.

So you were going from LA to New York.

Dakle, išao si od LA do Njujorka.

Now go from LA to Toronto.

Sad idi od LA do Toronta.

CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second,

KA: Ostavljajući za tren po strani propise,

samo u smislu tehnologije,

in terms of the technology alone,

the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars

vreme kada će neko moći da kupi jedan od tvojih auta

and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep

i bukvalno da digne ruke sa volana i zaspi

and wake up and find that they've arrived,

i probudi se i shvati da je stigao,

how far away is that, to do that safely?

koliko je to daleko, da bude bezbedno?

EM: I think that's about two years.

IM: Mislim da se radi o dve godine.

So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work

Dakle, stvarni trik nije u tome da funkcioniše,

say 99.9 percent of the time,

recimo, 99,9 procenata vremena

because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times,

jer, ako se auto sudari jednom u hiljadu puta,

then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep.

onda vam i dalje neće biti svejedno da zaspite.

You shouldn't be, certainly.

Svakako da ne bi trebalo.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

Nikada neće da bude savršeno.

It's never going to be perfect.

No system is going to be perfect,

Nijedan sistem neće da bude savršen,

but if you say it's perhaps --

ali ako kažete da je možda -

the car is unlikely to crash

da su mali izgledi za sudar

in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes,

u stotinu života ili hiljadu života,

then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives,

onda su ljudi u fazonu, u redu, opa, ako bih živeo hiljadu života,

I would still most likely never experience a crash,

i dalje najverovatnije ne bih nikad doživeo sudar,

onda je to verovatno u redu.

then that's probably OK.

CA: To sleep.

KA: Zaspati.

I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually

Pretpostavljam da te veoma brine da bi ljude mogli zapravo

get seduced too early to think that this is safe,

da zavedu da prerano pomisle da je ovo bezbedno,

and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.

te da će da dođe do nekog užasnog incidenta koji će da odloži sve.

EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash,

IM: Pa, mislim da će samoupravljajući sistem verovatno bar ublažiti sudar,

except in rare circumstances.

osim u retkim okolnostima.

The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety

Nešto što treba ceniti kod bezbednosti vozila

is this is probabilistic.

je da se radi o verovatnoći.

I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car,

Mislim, postoji mogućnost da će bilo kad kad ljudski vozač uđe u auto,

that they will have an accident that is their fault.

svojom krivicom da izazove nesreću.

It's never zero.

Nikad to nije nula.

So really the key threshold for autonomy

Dakle, zaista ključni prag kod samoupravljanja

is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person

je koliko samoupravljanje mora da bude bolje od osobe

before you can rely on it?

pre nego što mognete da se oslonite na njega?

CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving,

KA: Ali čim nam bude bezbedna vožnja bez ruku,

čini se da će silina raskola u celoj industriji biti ogromna

the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive,

because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car,

jer rekao si da će u tom momentu ljudi moći da kupe auto,

drops you off at work, and then you let it go

odbaciće ih na posao i potom ga prepuštate

and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people,

i pružate drugim ljudima neku vrstu usluge nalik taksiju,

earn you money,

zarađujete novac,

maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car,

možda čak i pokrivate troškove lizinga za taj auto,

so you can kind of get a car for free.

te vam nekako auto dođe besplatno.

Da li je to zaista moguće?

Is that really likely?

EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen.

IM: Da. Apsolutno će to da se desi.

So there will be a shared autonomy fleet

Imaćemo vozni park zajedničke autonomije,

where you buy your car

gde ćete da kupite auto

and you can choose to use that car exclusively,

i moći ćete da odaberete da isključivo vi koristite auto,

moći ćete da odaberete da ga koriste jedino prijatelji i porodca,

you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family,

only by other drivers who are rated five star,

jedino drugi vozači koji su ocenjeni sa pet zvezdica,

you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times.

moći ćete da odaberete da ga delite nekad, a nekad ne.

To će da se desi sto posto.

That's 100 percent what will occur.

It's just a question of when.

Samo je pitanje kada.

CA: Wow.

KA: Opa!

So you mentioned the Semi

Pomenuo si semija

and I think you're planning to announce this in September,

i mislim da planiraš da ovo najaviš u septembru,

but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today?

ali sam znatiželjan ima li nešto št možeš danas da nam pokažeš?

EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.

IM: Pokazaću vam sliku kamiona da vam zagolicam maštu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's alive.

Živ je.

CA: OK.

KA: U redu.

EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious

IM: Ovo je definitivno slučaj gde želimo da budemo oprezni

about the autonomy features.

povodom izgleda autonomije.

Yeah.

Da.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: We can't see that much of it,

KA: Ne vidimo mnogo,

but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck.

ali ne izgleda kao puki prijateljski kamion iz komšiluka.

Nekako izgleda opako.

It looks kind of badass.

What sort of semi is this?

Kakav je ovo polukamion?

IM: Dakle, ovo je polukamion velike nosivosti za velike razdaljine.

EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck.

So it's the highest weight capability

Ima najveću nosivost

i za velike je udaljenosti.

and with long range.

Te je u suštini namenjen za olakšavanje tereta kamiona velike izdržljivosti.

So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads.

And this is something which people do not today think is possible.

A to je nešto što ljudi danas smatraju da je nemoguće.

They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range,

Smatraju da kamion nema dovoljno snage, niti ima dovoljno dometa,

and then with the Tesla Semi

a onda sa teslinim semijem

we want to show that no, an electric truck

želimo da pokažemo kako ne, električni kamion

actually can out-torque any diesel semi.

zapravo može da ima veću obrtnu moć od bilo kog dizel polukamiona.

And if you had a tug-of-war competition,

A kad biste imali takmičenje u izdržljivosti,

the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.

Teslin semi bi odgurao dizel polukamion uz brdo.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Aplauz)

(Applause)

KA: To je prilično sjajno. A za sad, nisu samoupravljajući.

CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless.

Ovo će da budu kamioni koje će kamiondžije želeti da voze.

These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.

EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this

IM: Da. Uistinu zabavno kod ovoga će da bude

to što imate ravnu RPM krivu obrtnog momenta sa električnim motorom,

is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor,

whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car,

dok kod dizel motora ili bilo kog auta s motorom s unutrašnjim sagorevanjem,

imate RPM krivu obrtnog momenta koja izgleda kao brdo.

you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill.

So this will be a very spry truck.

Te će ovo da bude veoma žustar kamion.

You can drive this around like a sports car.

Možete da ga vozikate kao sportski automobil.

There's no gears. It's, like, single speed.

Nema brzina. To je poput jedne brzine.

KA: Ovde negde čuči sjajan film.

CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere.

I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well,

Ne znam o kakvom filmu se radi i sumnjam da ima srećan kraj,

but it's a great movie.

ali je film sjajan.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.

IM: Test vožnja je bizarna.

When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck.

Dok sam vozio prototip za testiranje ovog kamiona.

It's really weird, because you're driving around

Zaista je čudno jer se vozite okolo

and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck.

i prosto ste tako okretni, a u ovom ste džinovskom kamionu.

CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype?

KA: Stani, već si vozio prototip?

EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot,

IM: Da, vozio sam ga po parkingu

and I was like, this is crazy.

i bio sam u fazonu: ovo je ludo.

CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.

KA: Au. Ovo nije vejporvejv.

IM: Prosto je kao, voziti ovaj džinovski kamion

EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck

and making these mad maneuvers.

i praviti te obesne manevre.

CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture

KA: To je sjajno. U redu, sa zaista opake slike

to a kind of less badass picture.

na nekako manje opaku sliku.

This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something.

Ovo je tek simpatična kuća iz "Očajnih domaćica" ili slično.

What on earth is going on here?

Šta se, pobogu, dešava ovde?

EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future

IM: Pa, ovo ilustruje sliku budućnosti,

that I think is how things will evolve.

kako ja mislim da će se stvari razvijati.

You've got an electric car in the driveway.

Imate električni auto na prilazu.

If you look in between the electric car and the house,

Ako pogledate između električnog auta i kuće,

there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house,

imate zapravo tri Teslina akumulatora poređana uz bočni zid kuće,

and then that house roof is a solar roof.

a onda krov kuće je solarni.

Dakle, to je pravi krov od solarnog stakla.

So that's an actual solar glass roof.

CA: OK.

KA: U redu.

EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.

IM: To je slika stvarne - pa, priznajem, to je stvarna kobajagi kuća.

That's a real fake house.

To je stvarna kobajagi kuća.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: So these roof tiles,

KA: Dakle, ove krovne cigle,

some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --

neke u sebi sadrže solarnu energiju, u suštini, mogućnost da -

EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles

IM: Da. Solarne staklene cigle

where you can adjust the texture and the color

gde možete da prilagodite teksturu i boju

to a very fine-grained level,

do veoma izglančanog nivoa,

and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass,

a potom imamo nešto kao mikrovenecijanere od stakla,

takve da kada posmatrate krov sa nivoa ulice

such that when you're looking at the roof from street level

or close to street level,

ili nivoa bliže ulici,

all the tiles look the same

sve cigle izgledaju isto

whether there is a solar cell behind it or not.

bilo da je solarna ćelija iza njih ili ne.

Te imate ujednačenu boju

So you have an even color

from the ground level.

sa nivoa ulica.

If you were to look at it from a helicopter,

Ako biste pogledali krov iz helikoptera,

zapravo biste bili u stanju da vidite kroz njega i zapazite

you would be actually able to look through and see

that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not.

da neke staklene cigle imaju solarnu ćeliju ispod, a neke nemaju.

You can't tell from street level.

Sa ulice se ne vidi razlika.

KA: Stavljate ćelije iza onih koje su najizloženije suncu,

CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun,

and that makes these roofs super affordable, right?

a stoga su ovi krovovi superpristupačni, zar ne?

They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.

Nisu toliko skuplji od običnih krovnih cigli?

EM: Yeah.

IM: Da.

We're very confident that the cost of the roof

Veoma smo ubeđeni da će cena krova

plus the cost of electricity --

plus troškovi struje -

A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof

Krov od solarnog stakla će da košta manje od normalnog krova

plus the cost of electricity.

plus troškovi struje.

So in other words,

Dakle, drugim rečima,

this will be economically a no-brainer,

ovo će ekonomski biti bez dileme,

we think it will look great,

mislimo da će odlično da izgleda

and it will last --

i trajaće -

We thought about having the warranty be infinity,

Mislili smo da garancija bude do beskonačnosti,

but then people thought,

ali su ljudi smatrali,

pa, to bi moglo da zvuči kao da pričamo gluposti,

well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish,

but actually this is toughened glass.

ali ovo je zapravo ojačano staklo.

Well after the house has collapsed

Pa, nakon što se kuća sruši

and there's nothing there,

i ništa više ne bude tu,

the glass tiles will still be there.

staklene cigle će da budu tu.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

CA: I mean, this is cool.

KA: Mislim, ovo je sjajno.

Dakle, krećeš s ovim, za nekoliko nedelja, mislim,

So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think,

sa četiri različita tipa krova.

with four different roofing types.

EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially,

IM: Da, započinjemo sa dva, prvobitno dva,

a druga dva će da budu predstavljena početkom sledeće godine.

and the second two will be introduced early next year.

CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?

KA: I, kolike su ti ambicije ovde?

How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?

Koliko misliš da će kuća na kraju da ima ovaj tip krova?

EM: I think eventually

IM: Mislim da će vremenom

almost all houses will have a solar roof.

skoro sve kuće da imaju solarni krov.

The thing is to consider the time scale here

Ovde ćemo da uzmemo u obzir vremenski okvir

to be probably on the order

da je verovatno u ravni

of 40 or 50 years.

od 40 ili 50 godina.

Dakle, u proseku, svako 20 do 25 godina krov se menja.

So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years.

But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately.

Ali ne menjate krov odjednom.

But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward

Već vremenom, ako biste, recimo, premotali,

recimo, 15 godina unapred,

to say 15 years from now,

it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.

biće neobično imati krov koji nema solarne ćelije.

CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here

KA: Da li postoji kognitivni model koji ljudi ne razumeju ovde

that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power,

da će zbog izmene cene, ekonomičnosti solarne energije,

većina kuća zapravo imati dovoljno sunčeve svetlosti na krovu

most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof

pretty much to power all of their needs.

da snabde skoro sve njihove potrebe.

If you could capture the power,

Ako bismo mogli da zarobimo energiju,

it could pretty much power all their needs.

mogla bi da zadovolji skoro sve naše potrebe.

You could go off-grid, kind of.

Mogli bi da se odsečete sa mreže.

EM: It depends on where you are

IM: Zavisi gde se nalazite

and what the house size is relative to the roof area,

i koja je veličina kuće u odnosu na površinu krova,

but it's a fair statement to say

ali je pošteno reći

that most houses in the US have enough roof area

da mnoge kuće u SAD-u imaju dovoljno krovne površine

to power all the needs of the house.

da opskrbe sve potrebe kuće za energijom.

CA: So the key to the economics

KA: Dakle, ključno za ekonomičnost

automobila, semija, ovih kuća

of the cars, the Semi, of these houses

je pad cene litijum-jonskih baterija,

is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries,

which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.

na koje si stavio ogroman ulog Teslom.

In many ways, that's almost the core competency.

Na razne načine se radi skoro o suštinskoj sposobnosti.

And you've decided

I ti si odlučio

da zaista ovladaš tom sposobnošću,

that to really, like, own that competency,

you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant

prosto si morao da sagradiš najveću na svetu fabriku

to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries,

da udvostručiš svetske zalihe litijum-jonskih baterija,

with this guy. What is this?

s ovim momkom. Šta je ovo?

EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,

IM: Da, dakle, to je Gigafabrika,

progress so far on the Gigafactory.

dosadašnji napredak na Gigafabrici.

Eventually, you can sort of roughly see

Vremenom ćete otprilike moći da vidite

that there's sort of a diamond shape overall,

da tu imamo, sve u svemu, dijamantski oblik,

and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond,

a kada bude gotova u potpunosti, izgledaće poput džinovskog dijamanta,

or that's the idea behind it,

barem je takva zamisao,

i poravnata je sa stvarnim severom.

and it's aligned on true north.

It's a small detail.

To je maleni detalj.

CA: And capable of producing, eventually,

KA: I u stanju je da proizvede, vremenom,

like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.

otprilike stotinu gigavat časova baterija godišnje.

EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.

IM: Stotinu gigavat časova. Verujemo i više, ali da.

CA: And they're actually being produced right now.

KA: I to se zapravo trenutno proizvodi.

IM: To se trenutno već proizvodi. KA: Momci, pustite snimak.

EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video.

Mislim, da li je ovo ubrzano?

I mean, is that speeded up?

EM: That's the slowed down version.

IM: To je usporena verzija.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

KA: Koliko je zapravo brzo?

CA: How fast does it actually go?

EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,

IM: Pa, kad je u punoj brzini,

you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light.

ne možete zapravo da vidite ćelije bez stroboskopa.

It's just blur.

Sve je zamagljeno.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

KA: Jedna od tvojih ključnih ideja, Ilone, o uzbudljivoj budućnosti

CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future

is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy.

je budućnost u kojoj nas savest više ne grize zbog energije.

Help us picture this.

Pomozi nam da to zamislimo.

How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?

Koliko Gigafabrika, ako hoćeš, je potrebno da to ostvarimo?

EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.

IM: Radi se o oko stotinu, ugrubo.

It's not 10, it's not a thousand.

Ne radi se o 10, niti hiljadu.

Most likely a hundred.

Najverovatnije stotinu.

KA: Vidiš, to mi je neverovatno.

CA: See, I find this amazing.

You can picture what it would take

Možeš da zamisliš šta je potrebno

to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing.

da se svet pomeri sa fosilnih goriva.

Čini se da jednu gradiš,

It's like you're building one,

it costs five billion dollars,

košta pet milijardi dolara,

or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.

ili tako nešto, pet do 10 milijardi dolara.

Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project.

Nekako je sjajno što možeš da zamisliš taj projekat.

And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.

I planiraš, u Tesli - da ove godine najaviš još dve.

EM: I think we'll announce locations

IM: Mislim da ćemo da najavimo lokacije

for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year.

za nešto između dve i četiri Gigafabrike, kasnije u toku godine.

Da, verovatno četiri.

Yeah, probably four.

KA: Opa!

CA: Whoa.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

No more teasing from you for here?

Nećeš nam ništa otkriti?

Like -- where, continent?

Kao - gde, kontinent?

You can say no.

Možeš da kažeš ne.

EM: We need to address a global market.

IM: Moramo da se okrenemo globalnom tržištu.

CA: OK.

KA: U redu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This is cool.

Ovo je sjajno.

I think we should talk for --

Mislim da bismo trebali da razgovaramo -

Actually, global market.

Zapravo, dvostruko je podvučeno.

I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one.

Upitaću te jedno pitanje o politici, samo jedno.

I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this.

Nekako mi je muka od politike, ali želim ovo da te pitam.

You're on a body now giving advice to a guy --

Trenutno si u odboru, savetuješ ovog čoveka -

EM: Who?

IM: Kojeg?

CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change,

KA: Koji je rekao da zaista ne veruje u klimatske promene

i ima mnogo ljudi u svetu koji misle da ne bi trebalo to da radiš.

and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that.

They'd like you to walk away from that.

Želeli bi da to napustiš.

What would you say to them?

Šta bi im rekao?

EM: Well, I think that first of all,

IM: Pa, mislim da pre svega,

I'm just on two advisory councils

na svega sam dva savetodavna odbora

where the format consists of going around the room

čiji se format sastoji od šetanja prostorijom

and asking people's opinion on things,

i traženja mišljenja ljudi o stvarima

and so there's like a meeting every month or two.

i imamo nekakav sastanak svakih mesec-dva dana.

That's the sum total of my contribution.

To je ukupni zbir mog doprinosa.

But I think to the degree that there are people in the room

Ali mislim da donekle ima ljudi u toj prostoriji

who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change,

koji se zalažu za to da se učini nešto povodom klimatskih promena

or social issues,

ili društvenih pitanja.

I've used the meetings I've had thus far

Iskoristio sam dosadašnje sastanke

to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.

da govorim u ime imigracije i u ime klimatskih promena.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

And if I hadn't done that,

A da nisam uradio tako,

that wasn't on the agenda before.

to ne bi bilo na dnevnom redu.

So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.

Te, možda se ništa neće desiti, ali je barem nešto rečeno.

CA: OK.

KA. U redu.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.

Razgovarajmo o Spejs iksu i Marsu.

Last time you were here,

Kad si poslednji put bio ovde,

you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream

govorio si o nečemu što se činilo kao neverovatno ambiciozan san,

to develop rockets that were actually reusable.

o pravljenju raketa koje zapravo imaju vešestruku upotrebu.

And you've only gone and done it.

I prosto si se zaputio i to uradio.

IM: Konačno. Potrajalo je dugo.

EM: Finally. It took a long time.

CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?

KA: Objasni nam ovo. U šta gledamo?

IM: Dakle, ovo je jedan od naših raketnih akceleratora

EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters

coming back from very high and fast in space.

koji ide veoma visoko i brzo u svemiru.

Upravo je gornji nivo razvio

So just delivered the upper stage

at high velocity.

veliku brzinu.

I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so,

Mislim da je bila u rangu Mahovog broja 7 ili slično,

delivery of the upper stage.

to je gornji nivo razvio.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

CA: So that was a sped-up --

CA: Dakle, to je ubrzana -

EM: That was the slowed down version.

IM: To je usporena verzija.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: I thought that was the sped-up version.

KA: Mislio sam da se radi o ubrzanom snimku.

Ali, mislim, to je sjajno,

But I mean, that's amazing,

and several of these failed

a nekoliko ovih je omanulo,

before you finally figured out how to do it,

pre nego što ste konačno shvatili kako da to postignete,

but now you've done this, what, five or six times?

ali sad ste to postigli, koliko, pet ili šest puta?

EM: We're at eight or nine.

IM: Na osmom smo ili devetom.

KA: I prvi put,

CA: And for the first time,

you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.

zapravo ste ponovo leteli u jednoj od raketa koja se prizemljila.

EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster

IM: Da, prizemljili smo raketni akcelerator

and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again,

i zatim ga pnovo pripremili za let i leteli ponovo njime,

so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster

pa je to prvi ponovni let orbitalnog akceleratora

where that reflight is relevant.

gde je taj ponovni let relevantan.

So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant

Važno je shvatiti da je višestruka upotrebljivost jedino relevantna,

if it is rapid and complete.

ako je brza i potpuna.

So like an aircraft or a car,

Dakle, poput aviona ili auta,

the reusability is rapid and complete.

višestruka upotreba je brza i potpuna.

Ne šaljete avion boingu između letova.

You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.

KA: Tačno. Dakle, ovo ti omogućava da sanjaš o toj krajnje ambicioznoj ideji

CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea

da pošalješ mnoge, mnoge, mnoge ljude na Mars

of sending many, many, many people to Mars

in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.

za, koliko, 10 ili 20 godina, pretpostavljam.

EM: Yeah.

IM: Da.

KA: I dizajnirao si ovu zaprepašćujuću raketu za to.

CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it.

Help us understand the scale of this thing.

Pomozi nam da razumemo razmere ovoga.

EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person.

IM: Pa, vizuelno možete da spazite osobu pored.

Yeah, and that's the vehicle.

Da, a to je vozilo.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: So if that was a skyscraper,

KA: Dakle, da je to neboder,

that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?

to je poput, da li sam tako pročitao, poput 40-ospratnice?

EM: Probably a little more, yeah.

IM: Verovatno je malo više, da.

The thrust level of this is really --

Stepen potiska ovoga je zaista -

This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.

Potisak konfiguracije je oko četiri puta veći od potiska rakete Saturn V.

CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.

KA: Četiri puta veći potisak od najveće rakete koju je čovečanstvo ikad napravilo.

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

IM: Da. Da.

CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.

CA: Kako obično biva. IM: Da.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

U jedinicama boinga 747, 747 je tek oko 113 398 kilograma potiska,

In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,

pa za svaka 4,5 miliona kilograma potiska,

so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,

there's 40 747s.

imamo 40 boinga 747.

So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.

Dakle, ovo bi bio potisak jednak 120 boinga 747, s užarenim motorima.

CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity,

KA: Čak i sa mašinom dizajniranom da odoli Zemljinoj gravitaciji,

I think you told me last time

mislim da si mi poslednji put rekao

this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747,

da ovo zapravo može da primi krcat 747,

people, cargo, everything,

sa sve ljudima, prtljagom, svim,

into orbit.

u orbitu.

EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,

IM: Upravo. Ovo može da primi krcat 747 sa punim rezervoarom,

popunjenim sedištima, maksimalnim prtljagom na 747 -

maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 --

this can take it as cargo.

ova raketa-nosač to može da primi kao prtljag.

KA: Dakle, na osnovu ovoga,

CA: So based on this,

you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System

skoro si predstavio Međuplanetarni transportni sistem,

which is visualized this way.

koji je ovako vizualizovan.

Ovo je prizor koji zamišljaš za, koliko, 30 godina? 20 godina?

This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time?

People walking into this rocket.

Da će ljudi ušetati u ovu raketu.

EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame.

IM: Nadam se da će da bude otprilike za osam do 10 godina.

Težimo tome, to nam je cilj.

Aspirationally, that's our target.

Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --

Naši interni ciljevi su nešto agresivniji, ali mislim -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: OK.

KA: U redu.

EM: While vehicle seems quite large

IM: Iako se vozilo čini prilično velikim

i veliko je u poređenju s drugim raketama,

and is large by comparison with other rockets,

I think the future spacecraft

mislim da će naspram budućih kosmičkih brodova

will make this look like a rowboat.

ovo izgledati kao čamac.

The future spaceships will be truly enormous.

Budući svemirski brodovi će da budu istinski ogromni.

KA: Zašto, Ilone?

CA: Why, Elon?

Why do we need to build a city on Mars

Zašto moramo da sagradimo grad na Marsu

with a million people on it in your lifetime,

sa milion ljudi u njemu, u tvom životnom veku,

which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do?

što je nekako nešto što si rekao da bi voleo da uradiš?

EM: I think it's important to have

IM: Mislim da je važno imati

budućnost koja je inspirativna i privlačna.

a future that is inspiring and appealing.

I just think there have to be reasons

Prosto smatram da moraju da postoje razlozi

that you get up in the morning and you want to live.

zbog kojih se ujutru budite i želite da živite.

Like, why do you want to live?

Kao, zašto želite da živite?

Šta je svrha? Šta vas inspiriše?

What's the point? What inspires you?

What do you love about the future?

Šta vam se sviđa kod budućnosti?

And if we're not out there,

A ako nismo tamo negde,

if the future does not include being out there among the stars

ako budućnost ne uključuje nas tamo negde među zvezdama

and being a multiplanet species,

i da smo višeplanetarna vrsta,

nekako mi je to neverovatno deprimirajuće,

I find that it's incredibly depressing

if that's not the future that we're going to have.

ako to nije budućnost koju ćemo da imamo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

KA: Ljudi žele da svrstaju ovo među ili-ili,

CA: People want to position this as an either or,

that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now

da postoji toliko očajnih stvari koje se trenutno dešavaju na planeti,

from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue.

od klime do siromaštva do, znaš, izaberi problem.

And this feels like a distraction.

A ovo izgleda kao odvlačenje pažnje.

Ne bi trebalo da razmišljaš o ovome.

You shouldn't be thinking about this.

You should be solving what's here and now.

Trebalo bi da se baviš onim što je ovde i sad.

I, pošteno je reći, da si imao svoj popriličan udeo u tome,

And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that

svojim radom na održivoj energiji.

with your work on sustainable energy.

But why not just do that?

Ali zašto se ne baviti samo time?

EM: I think there's --

IM: Mislim da postoji -

I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities.

Posmatram budućnost s tačke gledišta verovatnoće.

It's like a branching stream of probabilities,

Poput razgranate bujice verovatnoće,

and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities

i postoje postupci koje možemo da uradimo koji utiču na tu verovatnoću

or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing.

ili koji ubrzavaju jednu stvar ili usporavaju drugu stvar.

Možda uvedem nešto novo u bujicu verovatnoće.

I may introduce something new to the probability stream.

Sustainable energy will happen no matter what.

Održiva energija će se desiti bez obzira na sve.

Da nije bilo Tesle, da Tesla nikad nije postojala,

If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed,

it would have to happen out of necessity.

desilo bi se iz nužde.

It's tautological.

To je tautološki.

Ako nemate održivu energiju, to znači da imate neodrživu energiju.

If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy.

Eventually you will run out,

Vremenom ćete je potrošiti,

and the laws of economics will drive civilization

te će ekonomski zakoni voditi civilizaciju

towards sustainable energy,

ka održivoj energiji,

inevitably.

neizbežno.

Temeljna vrednost firme, poput Tesle,

The fundamental value of a company like Tesla

je stepen do kog ubrzava dolazak održive energije,

is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy,

faster than it would otherwise occur.

brže nego što bi inače do nje došlo.

Pa kad razmišljam, kao,

So when I think, like,

what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla,

šta je temeljna dobrobit firme, poput Tesle,

rekao bih, nadam se,

I would say, hopefully,

if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade,

da ako je ubrzala sve to za deceniju, potencijalno više od decenije,

that would be quite a good thing to occur.

to bi bila prilično dobra stvar koja se desila.

That's what I consider to be

To ja smatram

the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.

temeljnom dobrobiti kojoj teži Tesla.

Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization.

Potom, naše pretvaranje u višeplanetarnu vrstu i civilizaciju svemirskih putnika.

This is not inevitable.

To nije neizbežno.

It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable.

Veoma je važno da cenimo da to nije neizbežno.

The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable,

Budućnost održive energije, mislim da je većim delom neizbežna,

but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable.

ali biti civilizacija svemirskih putnika definitivno nije neizbežno.

If you look at the progress in space,

Ako posmatrate napredak u svemiru,

in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon.

1969. ste bili u stanju da nekoga pošaljete na mesec.

1969.

1969.

Then we had the Space Shuttle.

Potom smo imali spejs-šatl.

The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit.

Spejs-šatl je jedino mogao da odvede ljude do niže Zemljine orbite.

Then the Space Shuttle retired,

Potom se spejs-šatl penzionisao,

and the United States could take no one to orbit.

i Sjedinjene Države nikog nisu mogle povesti u orbitu.

So that's the trend.

Dakle, to je trend.

The trend is like down to nothing.

Trend se spušta do nule.

People are mistaken when they think

Ljudi greše kad misle

that technology just automatically improves.

da se tehnologija prosto automatski unapređuje.

Ne unapređuje se automatski.

It does not automatically improve.

Jedino se unapređuje kada mnogo ljudi veoma vredno radi na njenom unapređenju

It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better,

and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually.

i zapravo mislim da će prepuštena samoj sebi da se unazadi.

You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt,

Pogledajte velike civilizacije, poput drevnog Egipta,

and they were able to make the pyramids,

oni su bii u stanju da naprave piramide,

and they forgot how to do that.

i zaboravili su kako se to radi.

And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts.

Potom Rimljani, gradili su te neverovatne akvadukte.

They forgot how to do it.

Zaboravili su kako se to radi.

CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you

KA: Ilone, gotovo da se čini, dok te slušam

and looking at the different things you've done,

i posmatram različite stvari koje si uradio,

da imaš tu jedinstvenu dvostruku motivaciju za sve,

that you've got this unique double motivation on everything

that I find so interesting.

koja je meni zanimljiva.

One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good.

Prva je žudnja da delaš u ime dugoročne dobrobiti čovečanstva.

The other is the desire to do something exciting.

Druga je žudnja da uradiš nešto uzbudljivo.

And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other.

I često se čini kao da osećaš da ti je potrebna jedna da pokreće drugu.

With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy,

S Teslom želiš da imaš održivu energiju,

so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it.

pa si napravio ova izuzetno privlačna, uzbudljiva auta za to.

Solarna energija, moramo to da ostvarimo,

Solar energy, we need to get there,

so we need to make these beautiful roofs.

te moramo da pravimo te lepe krovove.

We haven't even spoken about your newest thing,

Nismo čak ni pomenuli tvoj najnoviji projekat,

za koji nemamo sad vremena,

which we don't have time to do,

but you want to save humanity from bad AI,

ali želiš da spasiš čovečanstvo od zle VI,

and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface

te ćeš da napraviš taj istinski sjajan interfejs za mozak i mašinu

to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth.

da nam svima obezbediš neograničeno pamćenje i telepatiju itd.

A na Marsu, utisak je da kao da govoriš:

And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is,

yeah, we need to save humanity

da, moramo da spasimo čovečanstvo

and have a backup plan,

i da imamo rezervni plan,

but also we need to inspire humanity,

ali takođe moramo da inspirišemo čovečanstvo,

and this is a way to inspire.

a ovo je način za to.

EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration

IM: Mislim da je vrednost lepote i inspiracije

is very much underrated,

poprilično potcenjena,

no question.

bez sumnje.

Ali želim da budem jasan.

But I want to be clear.

I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.

Ne pokušavam da budem ičiji spasilac.

That is not the --

To nije -

I'm just trying to think about the future

prosto pokušavam da razmišljam o budućnosti

i da ne budem tužan.

and not be sad.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

CA: Beautiful statement.

KA: Prelepa izjava.

I think everyone here would agree

Mislim da će se svi ovde složiti

that it is not --

da nije -

None of this is going to happen inevitably.

Da se bilo šta od ovoga neće neizbežno desiti.

The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff,

Činjenica da u tovm umu sanjaš sve ovo,

you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream,

sanjaš stvari koje se niko drugi ne bi usudio da sanja

ili ne bi bio u stanju da sanja

or no one else would be capable of dreaming

at the level of complexity that you do.

na nivou složenosti na kom ti to radiš.

The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing.

Činjenica da to radiš, Ilon Mask, je zaista izvanredna stvar.

Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.

Hvala ti što nam pomažeš da sanjamo bar malo više.

EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?

IM: Ali reći ćete mi ako se ikad pretvori u nešto krajnje sumanuto, je li tako?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic.

KA: Hvala ti, Ilon Mask. Bilo je zaista, zaista fantastično.

That was really fantastic.

Bilo je zaista fantastično.

(Aplauz)

(Applause)