Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring | TED

26,332,270 views ・ 2017-05-03

TED


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Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković
00:12
Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
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Kris Anderson: Ilone, hej, dobro došao opet na TED.
00:15
It's great to have you here.
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Lepo je što si ovde.
00:16
Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
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Ilon Mask: Hvala na pozivu.
00:18
CA: So, in the next half hour or so,
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KA: Dakle, u narednih oko pola sata,
00:21
we're going to spend some time
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provešćemo neko vreme
00:23
exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like,
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istražujući tvoju viziju toga koliko bi budućnost mogla da izgleda uzbudljivo,
00:27
which I guess makes the first question a little ironic:
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zbog čega je, valjda, prvo pitanje malčice ironično:
00:31
Why are you boring?
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zašto zabušavaš?
IM: Da.
00:33
EM: Yeah.
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00:34
I ask myself that frequently.
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To često pitam samog sebe.
00:39
We're trying to dig a hole under LA,
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Pokušavamo da iskopamo rupu ispod Los Anđelesa
00:43
and this is to create the beginning
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s ciljem da stvorimo početak
00:46
of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels
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nečega što će, nadamo se, biti 3D mreža tunela
00:51
to alleviate congestion.
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kako bi se olakšalo zakrčenje.
00:53
So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic.
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Dakle, trenutno je saobraćaj nešto najiritantnije.
00:59
It affects people in every part of the world.
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Pogađa ljude u svim delovima sveta.
01:02
It takes away so much of your life.
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Toliko vam oduzima od života.
Užasno je.
01:06
It's horrible.
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Naročito je užasno u Los Anđelesu.
01:08
It's particularly horrible in LA.
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01:09
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:12
CA: I think you've brought with you
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KA: Mislim da si sa sobom poneo
01:14
the first visualization that's been shown of this.
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prvu vizualizaciju ovoga koja je ikad prikazana.
01:16
Can I show this?
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Mogu li to da pokažem?
IM: Da, apsolutno. Dakle, ovo je prvi put -
01:18
EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time --
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01:20
Just to show what we're talking about.
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Prosto da pokažem o čemu pričamo.
01:22
So a couple of key things that are important
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Dakle, nekoliko ključnih stvari koje su važne
01:24
in having a 3D tunnel network.
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kad imate 3D mrežu tunela.
01:28
First of all, you have to be able
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Prvo - morate da budete u stanju
01:30
to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel
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da integrišete ulaz i izlaz iz tunela
01:32
seamlessly into the fabric of the city.
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besprekorno sa gradskim tkanjem.
01:34
So by having an elevator,
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Uz lift,
01:38
sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator,
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neku vrstu nosača za automobile, koji je na liftu,
01:43
you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network
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možete da integrišete ulaze i izlaze u i iz mreže tunela,
01:47
just by using two parking spaces.
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upotrebom svega dva parking mesta.
01:50
And then the car gets on a skate.
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Potom automobil stigne na nosač.
01:52
There's no speed limit here,
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Tu brzina nije ograničena,
01:54
so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
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mi ga dizajniramo da može da ide 200 kilometara na sat.
01:59
CA: How much?
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KA: Koliko?
02:00
EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour.
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IM: 200 kilometara na sat ili oko 130 milja na sat.
02:04
So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
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Pa, trebalo bi da možete da stignete, recimo, od Vestvuda do LAX-a
za šest minuta - pet, šest minuta.
02:11
in six minutes -- five, six minutes.
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02:13
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
02:17
CA: So possibly, initially done,
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KA: Moguće da će provbitna verzija
02:19
it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.
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da bude zasnovana na nekom vidu putarine.
02:21
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
02:22
CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic
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KA: Što, valjda, ublažava nešto saobraćaja
02:24
from the surface streets as well.
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sa ulica na površini, takođe.
02:26
EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video,
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IM: Dakle, ne znam da li su ljudi primetili na snimku,
02:29
but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
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ali ne postoji stvarno ograničenje koliko nivoa tunela možete da imate.
02:34
You can go much further deep than you can go up.
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Možete ići daleko više u dubinu nego što možete u visinu.
02:37
The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall,
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Najdublji rudnici su daleko dublji nego što su najviše zgrade visoke,
02:41
so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion
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te možete da olakšate bilo koji proizvoljni stepen gradskog zakrčenja
02:46
with a 3D tunnel network.
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uz 3D mrežu tunela.
Ovo je veoma važno.
02:48
This is a very important point.
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02:49
So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
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Ključna kritika na račun tunela je da ako dodate jedan sloj tunela,
to bi prosto olakšalo gužve, popunilo bi se
02:56
that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up,
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02:58
and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion.
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i ponovo biste bili na početku sa gužvom.
Ali mogli biste da imate bezbroj tunela,
03:02
But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels,
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03:04
any number of levels.
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bezbroj nivoa.
03:05
CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig,
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KA: Ali ljudi - gledano tradicionalno, kopanje je izuzetno skupo,
03:09
and that would block this idea.
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i to bi zaustavilo ovu ideju.
03:11
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
Pa, u pravu su.
03:13
Well, they're right.
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03:14
To give you an example, the LA subway extension,
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Da vam dam jedan primer, podzemna produžnica u Los Anđelesu,
koja je - mislim da je duga četiri kilometra,
03:18
which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension
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03:21
that was just completed for two billion dollars.
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upravo je završena za dve milijarde dolara.
Otprilike se radi o milijardi dolara po 1,6 km da se napravi podzemna u LA.
03:24
So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA.
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03:29
And this is not the highest utility subway in the world.
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A ovo nije najkorisnija podzemna na svetu.
03:33
So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally.
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Pa, da, obično je prilično teško kopati tunele.
03:37
I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement
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Mislim da nam je potreban bar desetostruki napredak
u ceni po kilometru tunela.
03:41
in the cost per mile of tunneling.
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KA: A kako možete to da postignete?
03:44
CA: And how could you achieve that?
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03:48
EM: Actually, if you just do two things,
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IM: Zapravo, ako uradite samo dve stvari,
03:50
you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement,
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dostigli biste otprilike napredak za red velične,
03:53
and I think you can go beyond that.
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a mislim da možete više od toga.
03:55
So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter
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Pa, prvo što treba da uradite je da skratite prečnik tunela
za faktor od dva ili više.
04:00
by a factor of two or more.
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04:01
So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations
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Dakle, tunel sa jednom trakom, prema propisima,
04:05
has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter
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mora da ima prečnik od 8, možda 8,5 metara
04:08
to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles
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kako bi ostao prostor u slučaju nesreće i za vozila hitne pomoći,
04:11
and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars.
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kao i dovoljno ventilacije za vozila sa motorima sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem.
Međutim, ako suzite taj prečnik na ono na šta mi ciljamo,
04:16
But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting,
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04:19
which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through,
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a to je 3,7 metara, što je sasvim dovoljno da električni nosač prođe,
04:23
you drop the diameter by a factor of two
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umanjili ste prečnik za faktor od dva
04:26
and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four,
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a prostor poprečnog preseka za faktor od četiri,
04:30
and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.
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a cena kopanja tunela je srazmerna poprečnom preseku.
04:33
So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.
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Te je to otprilike unapređenje za pola reda veličine.
04:36
Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop,
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Trenutno mašine kopaju tunele polovinu vremena, potom se zaustavljaju,
04:41
and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements
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a preostalo vreme se troši na ojačavanje
04:44
for the tunnel wall.
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zidova tunela.
Pa ako umesto toga dizajnirate mašinu
04:46
So if you design the machine instead
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04:48
to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing,
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da obavlja konstantno kopanje i ojačavanje,
04:50
that will give you a factor of two improvement.
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time ćete postići napredak za faktor od dva.
Saberite to sve i imaćete faktor od osam.
04:53
Combine that and that's a factor of eight.
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04:55
Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits,
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Takođe, ove mašine nisu ni blizu granice svoijih termalnih moći,
04:59
so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially.
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te možete bitno uvećati snagu mašina.
Mislim da možete postići bar faktor od dva,
05:03
I think you can get at least a factor of two,
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možda faktor od četiri ili pet povrh toga.
05:05
maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that.
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05:09
So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps
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Te smatram da imamo prilično direktan niz koraka
05:13
to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement
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da stignemo do napretka od više od jednog reda veličine
05:16
in the cost per mile,
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u ceni po kilometru,
05:18
and our target actually is --
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a zapravo naš cilj je -
05:21
we've got a pet snail called Gary,
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imamo puža ljubimca, po imenu Gari,
nazvan je po pužu Gariju iz "Saut Parka",
05:24
this is from Gary the snail from "South Park,"
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05:26
I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."
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mislim, pardon, "Sunđer Boba Kockalonea".
05:29
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:31
So Gary is capable of --
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Dakle, Gari je u stanju -
05:35
currently he's capable of going 14 times faster
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trenutno može da ide 14 puta brže
05:39
than a tunnel-boring machine.
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od mašine za kopanje tunela.
05:41
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:44
CA: You want to beat Gary.
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KA: Želite da pobedite Garija.
05:46
EM: We want to beat Gary.
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IM: Želimo da pobedimo Garija.
05:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
On nije strpljiv mališa,
05:49
He's not a patient little fellow,
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05:51
and that will be victory.
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a to bi bio uspeh.
05:54
Victory is beating the snail.
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Uspeh je pobeda nad pužem.
05:57
CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities,
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KA: Ali mnogi ljudi kad zamišljaju, sanjaju gradove budućnosti,
06:00
they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
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zamišljaju da je zapravo rešenje u letećim automobilima, dronovima itd.
06:04
You go aboveground.
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Ide se iznad zemlje.
06:06
Why isn't that a better solution?
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Zašto to nije bolje rešenje?
06:08
You save all that tunneling cost.
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Uštedite sve te troškove kopanja?
06:10
EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.
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IM: Tačno. Ja sam za leteće stvari.
06:12
Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly.
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Očigledno, pravim rakete, te mi se sviđaju stvari koje lete.
06:16
This is not some inherent bias against flying things,
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Ne radi se o urođenoj predrasudi protiv letećih stvari,
06:19
but there is a challenge with flying cars
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ali imamo izazov kod letećih auta
06:22
in that they'll be quite noisy,
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zbog toga što će biti prilično bučna,
06:25
the wind force generated will be very high.
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snaga vetra koju će da stvaraju će da bude veoma velika.
Recimo, ako vam nešto leti iznad glave,
06:32
Let's just say that if something's flying over your head,
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06:34
a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place,
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čitava gomila letećih auta koja ide tamo i ovamo,
06:38
that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
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ne radi se o situaciji koja umanjuje anksioznost.
(Smeh)
06:43
(Laughter)
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06:45
You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today."
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Ne razmišljate u sebi: "Pa, danas se osećam bolje."
06:50
You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap,
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Razmišljate: "Da li su servisirali radkapnu
ili će da spadne i giljotinira me?"
06:53
or is it going to come off and guillotine me?"
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Slične stvari.
06:56
Things like that.
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07:00
CA: So you've got this vision
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KA: Dakle, tvoja vizija
07:01
of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath.
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gradova budućnosti uključuje ovu bogatu, 3D mrežu tunela ispod njih.
07:07
Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?
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Da li je ovo u vezi sa Hiperlupom?
07:09
Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea
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Možeš li da primeniš ove tunele kod ideje sa Hiperlupom
07:12
you released a few years ago.
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koju si objavio pre nekoliko godina?
07:14
EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around
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IM: Da, nekako smo se petljali
neko vreme oko Hiperlupa.
07:18
with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.
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07:20
We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX,
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Sagradili smo test stazu za Hiperlup blizu Spejs iksa,
07:24
just for a student competition,
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samo za takmičenje za studente,
07:26
to encourage innovative ideas in transport.
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kako bismo ohrabrili inovativne ideje u saobraćaju.
07:29
And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
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I zapravo je na kraju to ispalo najveća vakuumska komora na svetu
07:34
after the Large Hadron Collider,
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posle velikog hadronskog sudarivača,
07:37
by volume.
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prema zapremini.
07:41
So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing,
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Te je bilo veoma zabavno baviti se time, ali to je bilo nekako poput dokolice,
07:46
and then we think we might --
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a onda smo pomislili da bismo mogli -
07:50
so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods,
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pa smo napravili malena gurajuća auta da guraju studentske šasije,
07:56
but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go
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ali ćemo pokušati da proverimo koliko brzi gurači mogu da budu,
08:00
if it's not pushing something.
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kad ne guraju nešto.
08:02
So we're cautiously optimistic
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Pa smo oprezno optimistični,
bićemo brži od najbržeg superbrzog voza u svetu
08:05
we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train
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čak i u rasponu od 1,3 kilometra.
08:10
even in a .8-mile stretch.
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08:12
CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
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KA: Opa. Odlične kočnice.
08:14
EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.
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IM: Da, mislim, to je - da.
08:17
It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
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Ili će se razbiti u paramparčad ili će da ide prilično brzo.
08:21
CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
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KA: Ali onda možeš da zamisliš Hiperlup u tunelu
08:25
running quite long distances.
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kako se proteže velikim udaljenostima.
08:27
EM: Exactly.
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IM: Upravo.
Posmatrajući tehnologiju kopanja tunela,
08:29
And looking at tunneling technology,
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08:30
it turns out that in order to make a tunnel,
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ispada da, kako biste napravili tunel,
08:33
you have to --
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morate -
08:36
In order to seal against the water table,
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Kako biste blokirali podzemne vode,
08:38
you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good
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obično morate da dizajnirate zid tunela da izdrži
08:43
to about five or six atmospheres.
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pritisak od oko pet ili šest atmosfera.
Pa, prelazak na vakuum je tek pritisak od jedne atmosfere,
08:47
So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,
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08:50
or near-vacuum.
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ili blizu vakuuma.
08:51
So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically,
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Te, zapravo, nekako se ispostavlja da automatski,
ako sagradite tunel koji je dovoljno jak da odoleva podzemnim vodama,
08:56
if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table,
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automatski je u stanju da izdrži vakuum.
09:00
it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.
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09:02
CA: Huh.
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KA: Ha.
IM: Dakle, da.
09:04
EM: So, yeah.
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09:05
CA: And so you could actually picture,
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KA: Dakle, ti možeš da zapravo zamisliš
09:07
what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
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koje je dužine tunel iz Ilonove budućnosti kojim saobraća Hiperlup?
09:13
EM: I think there's no real length limit.
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IM: Mislim da ne postoji stvarno ograničenje dužine.
09:16
You could dig as much as you want.
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Možete da kopate koliko želite.
09:19
I think if you were to do something
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Mislim da ako biste se namerili na nešto
09:21
like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,
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kao Hiperlup od Vašingtona do Njujorka,
mislim da biste verovatno želeli da idete pod zemljom celim putem
09:27
I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way
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09:29
because it's a high-density area.
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jer se radi o gusto naseljenoj oblasti.
09:31
You're going under a lot of buildings and houses,
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Idete ispod mnogo zgrada i kuća,
09:35
and if you go deep enough,
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a ako idete dovoljno duboko,
09:37
you cannot detect the tunnel.
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ne možete da detektujete tunel.
09:39
Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying
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Ponekad ljudi misle, pa, biće prilično iritantno,
09:42
to have a tunnel dug under my house.
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ako iskopaju tunel ispod moje kuće.
09:44
Like, if that tunnel is dug
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Ako je taj tunel iskopan
09:45
more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house,
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više od tri ili četiri prečnika tunela ispod vaše kuće,
nećete biti u stanju da detektujete da se uopšte kopa.
09:49
you will not be able to detect it being dug at all.
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09:52
In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug,
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Zapravo, ako ste u stanju da detektujete kopanje tunela,
09:59
whatever device you are using,
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kakvu god spravu koristili,
10:01
you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military,
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izraelska vojska će da vam da gomilu novca za tu spravu,
10:04
who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas,
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jer pokušavaju da detektuju Hamasove tunele,
10:07
and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels.
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kao i od carinsko-graničnih jedinica SAD-a koje pokušavaju da otkriju tunele droge.
10:12
So the reality is
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Dakle, u stvarnosti
10:15
that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations,
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zemlja je neverovatno dobra u apsorbovanju vibracija,
10:19
and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level,
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a čim je tunel na dubini ispod određenog nivoa,
10:22
it is undetectable.
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nemoguće ga je detektovati.
10:24
Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument,
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Možda kad biste imali veoma osetljiv seizmički instrument,
mogli biste da ga detektujete.
10:27
you might be able to detect it.
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10:29
CA: So you've started a new company to do this
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KA: Dakle, osnovao si novu firmu za to,
10:31
called The Boring Company.
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zove se Boring kompani.
10:33
Very nice. Very funny.
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Fino. Veoma smešno.
10:35
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:36
EM: What's funny about that?
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IM: Šta je u tome smešno?
10:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:40
CA: How much of your time is this?
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KA: Koliko ti vremena oduzima?
10:43
EM: It's maybe ...
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IM: Otprilike...
10:47
two or three percent.
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dva ili tri procenta.
10:49
CA: You've called it a hobby.
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KA: Kupio si hobi.
10:50
This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.
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Ovako izgleda hobi za Ilona Maska.
10:53
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:54
EM: I mean, it really is, like --
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IM: Mislim, ziasta jeste, kao -
U suštini radi se o pripravnicima i ljudima koji to rade honorarno.
10:57
This is basically interns and people doing it part time.
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11:03
We bought some second-hand machinery.
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Kupili smo polovnu mehanizaciju.
Nekako se usputno petljamo time, ali dobro napreduje, stoga -
11:08
It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --
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KA: Dakle, nešto veći deo tvog vremena
11:12
CA: So an even bigger part of your time
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11:13
is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla.
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oduzima elektrifikacija automobila i saobraćaja putem Tesle.
11:19
Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project
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Da li je jedna od motivacija za projekat tunela
razumevanje da zapravo,
11:22
the realization that actually,
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11:24
in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving,
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u svetu u kom su automobili električni i samoupravljajući,
možda će doći do još većeg broja automobila na putevima
11:28
there may end up being more cars on the roads
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11:31
on any given hour than there are now?
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u bilo kom momentu nego što ih trenutno ima?
IM: Da, upravo.
11:34
EM: Yeah, exactly.
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Mnogi ljudi misle da ako napravimo autonomne automobile,
11:38
A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous,
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11:42
they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion.
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da će da idu brže i da će to olakšati gužve.
I do nekog stepena to će da bude tako,
11:47
And to some degree that will be true,
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11:48
but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car
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ali čim dobijete zajednička autonomna auta gde je mnogo jeftinije ići autom
i možete ići od tačke do tačke,
11:54
and you can go point to point,
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11:56
the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.
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pristupačnost putovanja autom će da bude veća od putovanja autobusom.
Koštaće manje od karte za autobus.
12:02
Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.
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12:04
So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy,
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Dakle, količina vožnje koja će da se desi će da bude mnogo veća od zajedničkog auta
12:09
and actually traffic will get far worse.
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i zapravo će saobraćaj da bude još gori.
12:12
CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world
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KA: Osnovao si Teslu u cilju ubeđivanja sveta
12:16
that electrification was the future of cars,
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da je elektrifikacija budućnost automobila,
12:19
and a few years ago, people were laughing at you.
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a pre nekoliko godina, ljudi su ti se smejali.
Sad, baš i ne.
12:22
Now, not so much.
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12:24
EM: OK.
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IK: U redu.
12:25
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:27
I don't know. I don't know.
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Ne znam. Ne znam.
KA: Ali zar nije tačno da su skoro svi proizvođači automobila
12:30
CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer
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12:33
has announced serious electrification plans
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najavili ozbiljne planove elektrifikacije
12:36
for the short- to medium-term future?
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u kratkoročnoj do srednjeročnoj budućnosti?
IM: Da. Da.
12:40
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
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12:43
I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program.
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Mislim da skoro svi proizvođači automobila imaju neki program za električna vozila.
12:48
They vary in seriousness.
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Variraju u ozbiljnosti.
12:49
Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric,
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Neki su veoma ozbiljni povodom potpunog prelaska na struju,
12:53
and some are just dabbling in it.
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a neki se samo površno time bave.
12:57
And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells,
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A neki su, za čudo, i dalje na tragu gorivnih ćelija,
12:59
but I think that won't last much longer.
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ali mislim da to neće trajati dugo.
13:01
CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,
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KA: Ali zar nemaš osećaj, pak, Ilone,
13:03
where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it."
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da možeš prosto proglasiti pobedu i reći, znaš: "Uspeli smo."
13:07
Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?
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Neka svet pređe na struju, a ti ćeš da se usredsrediš na druge stvari?
13:13
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
13:16
I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine,
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Nameravam da se zadržim na Tesli dokle god mogu da zamislim u budućnosti,
13:20
and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming.
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i ima tu mnogo uzbudljivih stvari koje stižu.
13:25
Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.
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Očito, uskoro izlazi model 3.
13:27
We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
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Otkrićemo Teslin polukamion.
KA: U redu. Stići ćemo do toga.
13:32
CA: OK, we're going to come to this.
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Dakle, model 3 bi trebalo da izađe oko jula.
13:34
So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish.
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IM: Da, dobri su izgledi da će proizvodnja krenuti u julu.
13:39
EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July.
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13:43
CA: Wow.
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KA: Opa.
Jedna od stvari oko koje su ljudi veoma uzbuđeni
13:45
One of the things that people are so excited about
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13:47
is the fact that it's got autopilot.
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je to da ima autopilota.
13:50
And you put out this video a while back
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A ti si postavio snimak pre nekog vremena
pokazujući kako će ta tehnologija da izgleda.
13:53
showing what that technology would look like.
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13:58
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
13:59
CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now.
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Očito imamo autopilota trenutno u modelu S.
KA: Šta vidimo ovde?
14:02
What are we seeing here?
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14:03
EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS.
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IM: Da, ovde koristimo samo kamere i GPS.
14:09
So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here.
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Ovde se ne koristi LIDAR, niti radar.
Samo koristimo pasivnu optiku, a to u suštini ljudi koriste.
14:12
This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses.
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14:17
The whole road system is meant to be navigated
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Trebalo bi čitavim sistemom puteva da upravljamo
14:19
with passive optical, or cameras,
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pasivnom optikom ili kamerama,
14:23
and so once you solve cameras
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te čim rešite problem kamera
ili vida,
14:27
or vision,
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14:29
then autonomy is solved.
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rešili ste samoupravljanje.
14:31
If you don't solve vision, it's not solved.
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Ako ne rešite problem vida, nemate rešenje.
Stoga smo se toliko usredsredili na nabavku vizuelne neuronske mreže
14:34
So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net
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koja je veoma efikasna na putnim uslovima.
14:40
that's very effective for road conditions.
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14:43
CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route.
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KA: Tačno. Mnogi drugi se odlučuju za LIDAR.
Ti želiš kamere plus radar i to je sve.
14:46
You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
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14:48
EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras.
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IM: Možeš u potpunosti da budeš superčovek samo sa kamerama.
14:52
Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would,
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Verovatno možeš da budeš deset puta bolji od ljudi,
14:55
just cameras.
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samo s kamerama.
14:56
CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them.
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KA: Dakle, novi automobili koje trenutno prodaju imaju u sebi osam kamera.
Još uvek ne mogu da postignu to što je ovde prikazano.
15:01
They can't yet do what that showed.
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15:05
When will they be able to?
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Kada će moći to da urade?
15:08
EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country
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IM: Mislim da smo i dalje na dobrom putu da uspemo preći državu
15:14
from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.
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od LA do Njujorka do kraja godine, u potpunosti samoupravljajući.
15:18
CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying,
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KA: U redu, dakle, do kraja godine, kažeš,
15:22
someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel,
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neko će sesti u Teslu, bez dodirivanja volana,
15:26
tap in "New York," off it goes.
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ukucaće "Njujork" i idemo.
15:28
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
15:29
CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.
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KA: Ni u jednom trenutku neće morati da dotakne volan - do kraja 2017.
15:34
EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year,
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IM: Da. U suštini, u novembru ili decembru ove godine,
15:38
we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California
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trebalo bi da uspemo da pređemo ceo put od parkinga u Kaliforniji
15:43
to a parking lot in New York,
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do parkinga u Njujorku,
bez dodirivanja upravljača tokom čitavog putovanja.
15:45
no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.
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15:48
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
15:50
CA: Amazing.
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KA: Neverovatno.
Ali to je delimično moguće
15:52
But part of that is possible
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15:53
because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads.
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jer ti već imaš Teslinu flotu koja se vozi svim tim putevima.
15:56
You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.
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Sakupljaš ogromnu količinu podataka o nacionalnom sistemu puteva.
16:03
EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting
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IM: Da, ali biće interesantno
to što sam ja prilično ubeđen da će biti u stanju da pređe tu rutu
16:06
is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route
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16:12
even if you change the route dynamically.
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čak iako dinamički promenite rutu.
16:16
So, it's fairly easy --
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Dakle, prilično je lako -
ako kažete da ću da uspem na jednoj specifičnoj ruti, to je jedna stvar,
16:20
If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing,
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16:23
but it should be able to go, really be very good,
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ali bi trebalo da može da ide, da bude veoma dobro,
16:28
certainly once you enter a highway,
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zasigurno čim kročite na auto-put,
16:30
to go anywhere on the highway system
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da može da ide bilo gde sistemom auto-puta
16:33
in a given country.
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u datoj državi.
Dakle, nije ograničeno na od LA do Njujorka.
16:36
So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York.
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16:38
We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida,
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Mogli bismo ga promeniti da ide Sijetl-Florida,
16:41
that day, in real time.
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tog dana u realnom vremenu.
16:44
So you were going from LA to New York.
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Dakle, išao si od LA do Njujorka.
16:46
Now go from LA to Toronto.
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Sad idi od LA do Toronta.
16:50
CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second,
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KA: Ostavljajući za tren po strani propise,
samo u smislu tehnologije,
16:53
in terms of the technology alone,
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16:55
the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars
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vreme kada će neko moći da kupi jedan od tvojih auta
16:59
and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep
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i bukvalno da digne ruke sa volana i zaspi
17:03
and wake up and find that they've arrived,
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i probudi se i shvati da je stigao,
17:05
how far away is that, to do that safely?
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koliko je to daleko, da bude bezbedno?
17:07
EM: I think that's about two years.
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IM: Mislim da se radi o dve godine.
17:09
So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work
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Dakle, stvarni trik nije u tome da funkcioniše,
17:13
say 99.9 percent of the time,
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recimo, 99,9 procenata vremena
17:16
because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times,
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jer, ako se auto sudari jednom u hiljadu puta,
17:20
then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep.
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onda vam i dalje neće biti svejedno da zaspite.
17:27
You shouldn't be, certainly.
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Svakako da ne bi trebalo.
(Smeh)
17:29
(Laughter)
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Nikada neće da bude savršeno.
17:32
It's never going to be perfect.
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17:34
No system is going to be perfect,
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Nijedan sistem neće da bude savršen,
17:36
but if you say it's perhaps --
335
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ali ako kažete da je možda -
17:40
the car is unlikely to crash
336
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da su mali izgledi za sudar
17:42
in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes,
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u stotinu života ili hiljadu života,
17:46
then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives,
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onda su ljudi u fazonu, u redu, opa, ako bih živeo hiljadu života,
17:50
I would still most likely never experience a crash,
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i dalje najverovatnije ne bih nikad doživeo sudar,
onda je to verovatno u redu.
17:53
then that's probably OK.
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17:54
CA: To sleep.
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KA: Zaspati.
17:55
I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually
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Pretpostavljam da te veoma brine da bi ljude mogli zapravo
17:58
get seduced too early to think that this is safe,
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da zavedu da prerano pomisle da je ovo bezbedno,
18:00
and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.
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te da će da dođe do nekog užasnog incidenta koji će da odloži sve.
18:05
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
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IM: Pa, mislim da će samoupravljajući sistem verovatno bar ublažiti sudar,
18:11
except in rare circumstances.
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osim u retkim okolnostima.
18:14
The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety
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Nešto što treba ceniti kod bezbednosti vozila
18:16
is this is probabilistic.
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je da se radi o verovatnoći.
18:20
I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car,
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Mislim, postoji mogućnost da će bilo kad kad ljudski vozač uđe u auto,
18:24
that they will have an accident that is their fault.
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svojom krivicom da izazove nesreću.
18:27
It's never zero.
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Nikad to nije nula.
18:29
So really the key threshold for autonomy
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Dakle, zaista ključni prag kod samoupravljanja
18:33
is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person
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je koliko samoupravljanje mora da bude bolje od osobe
18:38
before you can rely on it?
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pre nego što mognete da se oslonite na njega?
18:39
CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving,
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KA: Ali čim nam bude bezbedna vožnja bez ruku,
čini se da će silina raskola u celoj industriji biti ogromna
18:43
the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive,
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18:45
because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car,
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jer rekao si da će u tom momentu ljudi moći da kupe auto,
18:50
drops you off at work, and then you let it go
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odbaciće ih na posao i potom ga prepuštate
18:52
and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people,
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i pružate drugim ljudima neku vrstu usluge nalik taksiju,
18:56
earn you money,
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zarađujete novac,
18:57
maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car,
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možda čak i pokrivate troškove lizinga za taj auto,
19:00
so you can kind of get a car for free.
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te vam nekako auto dođe besplatno.
Da li je to zaista moguće?
19:02
Is that really likely?
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19:03
EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen.
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IM: Da. Apsolutno će to da se desi.
19:06
So there will be a shared autonomy fleet
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Imaćemo vozni park zajedničke autonomije,
19:08
where you buy your car
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gde ćete da kupite auto
19:09
and you can choose to use that car exclusively,
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i moći ćete da odaberete da isključivo vi koristite auto,
moći ćete da odaberete da ga koriste jedino prijatelji i porodca,
19:13
you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family,
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19:16
only by other drivers who are rated five star,
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jedino drugi vozači koji su ocenjeni sa pet zvezdica,
19:21
you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times.
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moći ćete da odaberete da ga delite nekad, a nekad ne.
To će da se desi sto posto.
19:28
That's 100 percent what will occur.
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19:31
It's just a question of when.
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Samo je pitanje kada.
19:33
CA: Wow.
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KA: Opa!
19:35
So you mentioned the Semi
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Pomenuo si semija
19:37
and I think you're planning to announce this in September,
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i mislim da planiraš da ovo najaviš u septembru,
19:40
but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today?
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ali sam znatiželjan ima li nešto št možeš danas da nam pokažeš?
19:43
EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.
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IM: Pokazaću vam sliku kamiona da vam zagolicam maštu.
19:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
19:49
It's alive.
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Živ je.
19:51
CA: OK.
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KA: U redu.
19:52
EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious
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IM: Ovo je definitivno slučaj gde želimo da budemo oprezni
19:55
about the autonomy features.
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povodom izgleda autonomije.
19:58
Yeah.
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Da.
19:59
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
20:01
CA: We can't see that much of it,
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KA: Ne vidimo mnogo,
20:02
but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
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ali ne izgleda kao puki prijateljski kamion iz komšiluka.
Nekako izgleda opako.
20:06
It looks kind of badass.
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20:07
What sort of semi is this?
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Kakav je ovo polukamion?
IM: Dakle, ovo je polukamion velike nosivosti za velike razdaljine.
20:11
EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck.
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20:15
So it's the highest weight capability
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Ima najveću nosivost
i za velike je udaljenosti.
20:20
and with long range.
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Te je u suštini namenjen za olakšavanje tereta kamiona velike izdržljivosti.
20:23
So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads.
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20:29
And this is something which people do not today think is possible.
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A to je nešto što ljudi danas smatraju da je nemoguće.
20:34
They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range,
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Smatraju da kamion nema dovoljno snage, niti ima dovoljno dometa,
20:38
and then with the Tesla Semi
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a onda sa teslinim semijem
20:40
we want to show that no, an electric truck
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želimo da pokažemo kako ne, električni kamion
20:43
actually can out-torque any diesel semi.
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zapravo može da ima veću obrtnu moć od bilo kog dizel polukamiona.
20:49
And if you had a tug-of-war competition,
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A kad biste imali takmičenje u izdržljivosti,
20:53
the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.
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Teslin semi bi odgurao dizel polukamion uz brdo.
20:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
(Aplauz)
21:01
(Applause)
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KA: To je prilično sjajno. A za sad, nisu samoupravljajući.
21:03
CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless.
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Ovo će da budu kamioni koje će kamiondžije želeti da voze.
21:06
These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.
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21:10
EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this
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IM: Da. Uistinu zabavno kod ovoga će da bude
to što imate ravnu RPM krivu obrtnog momenta sa električnim motorom,
21:13
is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor,
405
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21:18
whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car,
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dok kod dizel motora ili bilo kog auta s motorom s unutrašnjim sagorevanjem,
imate RPM krivu obrtnog momenta koja izgleda kao brdo.
21:22
you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill.
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21:25
So this will be a very spry truck.
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Te će ovo da bude veoma žustar kamion.
21:28
You can drive this around like a sports car.
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Možete da ga vozikate kao sportski automobil.
21:31
There's no gears. It's, like, single speed.
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Nema brzina. To je poput jedne brzine.
KA: Ovde negde čuči sjajan film.
21:34
CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere.
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21:36
I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well,
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Ne znam o kakvom filmu se radi i sumnjam da ima srećan kraj,
21:39
but it's a great movie.
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ali je film sjajan.
21:40
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
21:41
EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.
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IM: Test vožnja je bizarna.
21:44
When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck.
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Dok sam vozio prototip za testiranje ovog kamiona.
21:48
It's really weird, because you're driving around
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Zaista je čudno jer se vozite okolo
21:50
and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck.
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i prosto ste tako okretni, a u ovom ste džinovskom kamionu.
21:53
CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype?
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KA: Stani, već si vozio prototip?
21:57
EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot,
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IM: Da, vozio sam ga po parkingu
21:59
and I was like, this is crazy.
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i bio sam u fazonu: ovo je ludo.
22:00
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
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KA: Au. Ovo nije vejporvejv.
IM: Prosto je kao, voziti ovaj džinovski kamion
22:03
EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck
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22:05
and making these mad maneuvers.
424
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i praviti te obesne manevre.
22:07
CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture
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KA: To je sjajno. U redu, sa zaista opake slike
22:09
to a kind of less badass picture.
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na nekako manje opaku sliku.
22:12
This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
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Ovo je tek simpatična kuća iz "Očajnih domaćica" ili slično.
22:15
What on earth is going on here?
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Šta se, pobogu, dešava ovde?
22:18
EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future
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IM: Pa, ovo ilustruje sliku budućnosti,
22:21
that I think is how things will evolve.
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kako ja mislim da će se stvari razvijati.
22:24
You've got an electric car in the driveway.
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Imate električni auto na prilazu.
22:26
If you look in between the electric car and the house,
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Ako pogledate između električnog auta i kuće,
22:30
there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house,
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imate zapravo tri Teslina akumulatora poređana uz bočni zid kuće,
22:34
and then that house roof is a solar roof.
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a onda krov kuće je solarni.
Dakle, to je pravi krov od solarnog stakla.
22:37
So that's an actual solar glass roof.
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22:39
CA: OK.
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KA: U redu.
22:40
EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
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IM: To je slika stvarne - pa, priznajem, to je stvarna kobajagi kuća.
22:44
That's a real fake house.
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To je stvarna kobajagi kuća.
22:46
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
22:49
CA: So these roof tiles,
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KA: Dakle, ove krovne cigle,
22:51
some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --
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neke u sebi sadrže solarnu energiju, u suštini, mogućnost da -
22:57
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles
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IM: Da. Solarne staklene cigle
22:59
where you can adjust the texture and the color
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gde možete da prilagodite teksturu i boju
23:04
to a very fine-grained level,
444
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1976
do veoma izglančanog nivoa,
23:06
and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass,
445
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a potom imamo nešto kao mikrovenecijanere od stakla,
takve da kada posmatrate krov sa nivoa ulice
23:12
such that when you're looking at the roof from street level
446
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23:15
or close to street level,
447
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ili nivoa bliže ulici,
23:17
all the tiles look the same
448
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sve cigle izgledaju isto
23:19
whether there is a solar cell behind it or not.
449
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bilo da je solarna ćelija iza njih ili ne.
Te imate ujednačenu boju
23:26
So you have an even color
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23:29
from the ground level.
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sa nivoa ulica.
23:32
If you were to look at it from a helicopter,
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Ako biste pogledali krov iz helikoptera,
zapravo biste bili u stanju da vidite kroz njega i zapazite
23:35
you would be actually able to look through and see
453
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23:37
that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not.
454
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da neke staklene cigle imaju solarnu ćeliju ispod, a neke nemaju.
23:41
You can't tell from street level.
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Sa ulice se ne vidi razlika.
KA: Stavljate ćelije iza onih koje su najizloženije suncu,
23:43
CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun,
456
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23:46
and that makes these roofs super affordable, right?
457
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a stoga su ovi krovovi superpristupačni, zar ne?
23:48
They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.
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Nisu toliko skuplji od običnih krovnih cigli?
23:51
EM: Yeah.
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1200
IM: Da.
23:53
We're very confident that the cost of the roof
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Veoma smo ubeđeni da će cena krova
23:57
plus the cost of electricity --
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plus troškovi struje -
24:01
A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof
462
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2936
Krov od solarnog stakla će da košta manje od normalnog krova
24:04
plus the cost of electricity.
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plus troškovi struje.
24:06
So in other words,
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Dakle, drugim rečima,
24:07
this will be economically a no-brainer,
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ovo će ekonomski biti bez dileme,
24:11
we think it will look great,
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mislimo da će odlično da izgleda
24:13
and it will last --
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i trajaće -
24:15
We thought about having the warranty be infinity,
468
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Mislili smo da garancija bude do beskonačnosti,
24:18
but then people thought,
469
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ali su ljudi smatrali,
pa, to bi moglo da zvuči kao da pričamo gluposti,
24:20
well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish,
470
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24:22
but actually this is toughened glass.
471
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ali ovo je zapravo ojačano staklo.
24:28
Well after the house has collapsed
472
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Pa, nakon što se kuća sruši
24:31
and there's nothing there,
473
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i ništa više ne bude tu,
24:33
the glass tiles will still be there.
474
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staklene cigle će da budu tu.
24:36
(Applause)
475
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(Aplauz)
24:38
CA: I mean, this is cool.
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KA: Mislim, ovo je sjajno.
Dakle, krećeš s ovim, za nekoliko nedelja, mislim,
24:40
So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think,
477
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sa četiri različita tipa krova.
24:43
with four different roofing types.
478
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2536
24:45
EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially,
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2536
IM: Da, započinjemo sa dva, prvobitno dva,
a druga dva će da budu predstavljena početkom sledeće godine.
24:48
and the second two will be introduced early next year.
480
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24:51
CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?
481
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KA: I, kolike su ti ambicije ovde?
24:53
How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?
482
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5520
Koliko misliš da će kuća na kraju da ima ovaj tip krova?
24:59
EM: I think eventually
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IM: Mislim da će vremenom
25:02
almost all houses will have a solar roof.
484
1502560
3640
skoro sve kuće da imaju solarni krov.
25:07
The thing is to consider the time scale here
485
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Ovde ćemo da uzmemo u obzir vremenski okvir
25:11
to be probably on the order
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da je verovatno u ravni
25:13
of 40 or 50 years.
487
1513920
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od 40 ili 50 godina.
Dakle, u proseku, svako 20 do 25 godina krov se menja.
25:17
So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
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25:23
But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately.
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Ali ne menjate krov odjednom.
25:26
But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward
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Već vremenom, ako biste, recimo, premotali,
recimo, 15 godina unapred,
25:30
to say 15 years from now,
491
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3456
25:33
it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.
492
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3600
biće neobično imati krov koji nema solarne ćelije.
25:37
CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here
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KA: Da li postoji kognitivni model koji ljudi ne razumeju ovde
25:40
that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power,
494
1540720
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da će zbog izmene cene, ekonomičnosti solarne energije,
većina kuća zapravo imati dovoljno sunčeve svetlosti na krovu
25:45
most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof
495
1545160
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25:49
pretty much to power all of their needs.
496
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da snabde skoro sve njihove potrebe.
25:51
If you could capture the power,
497
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Ako bismo mogli da zarobimo energiju,
25:53
it could pretty much power all their needs.
498
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mogla bi da zadovolji skoro sve naše potrebe.
25:55
You could go off-grid, kind of.
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Mogli bi da se odsečete sa mreže.
25:56
EM: It depends on where you are
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1536
IM: Zavisi gde se nalazite
25:58
and what the house size is relative to the roof area,
501
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3256
i koja je veličina kuće u odnosu na površinu krova,
26:01
but it's a fair statement to say
502
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1856
ali je pošteno reći
26:03
that most houses in the US have enough roof area
503
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4816
da mnoge kuće u SAD-u imaju dovoljno krovne površine
26:08
to power all the needs of the house.
504
1568480
1960
da opskrbe sve potrebe kuće za energijom.
26:11
CA: So the key to the economics
505
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KA: Dakle, ključno za ekonomičnost
automobila, semija, ovih kuća
26:15
of the cars, the Semi, of these houses
506
1575000
4016
je pad cene litijum-jonskih baterija,
26:19
is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries,
507
1579040
3896
26:22
which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.
508
1582960
2496
na koje si stavio ogroman ulog Teslom.
26:25
In many ways, that's almost the core competency.
509
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2256
Na razne načine se radi skoro o suštinskoj sposobnosti.
26:27
And you've decided
510
1587760
2256
I ti si odlučio
da zaista ovladaš tom sposobnošću,
26:30
that to really, like, own that competency,
511
1590040
5216
26:35
you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant
512
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3456
prosto si morao da sagradiš najveću na svetu fabriku
26:38
to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries,
513
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3136
da udvostručiš svetske zalihe litijum-jonskih baterija,
26:41
with this guy. What is this?
514
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2296
s ovim momkom. Šta je ovo?
26:44
EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,
515
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3456
IM: Da, dakle, to je Gigafabrika,
26:47
progress so far on the Gigafactory.
516
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dosadašnji napredak na Gigafabrici.
26:50
Eventually, you can sort of roughly see
517
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Vremenom ćete otprilike moći da vidite
26:52
that there's sort of a diamond shape overall,
518
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2936
da tu imamo, sve u svemu, dijamantski oblik,
26:55
and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond,
519
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4616
a kada bude gotova u potpunosti, izgledaće poput džinovskog dijamanta,
26:59
or that's the idea behind it,
520
1619960
2216
barem je takva zamisao,
i poravnata je sa stvarnim severom.
27:02
and it's aligned on true north.
521
1622200
1496
27:03
It's a small detail.
522
1623720
1736
To je maleni detalj.
27:05
CA: And capable of producing, eventually,
523
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3896
KA: I u stanju je da proizvede, vremenom,
27:09
like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.
524
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3176
otprilike stotinu gigavat časova baterija godišnje.
27:12
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.
525
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2976
IM: Stotinu gigavat časova. Verujemo i više, ali da.
27:15
CA: And they're actually being produced right now.
526
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2376
KA: I to se zapravo trenutno proizvodi.
IM: To se trenutno već proizvodi. KA: Momci, pustite snimak.
27:18
EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video.
527
1638000
3176
Mislim, da li je ovo ubrzano?
27:21
I mean, is that speeded up?
528
1641200
1336
27:22
EM: That's the slowed down version.
529
1642560
1696
IM: To je usporena verzija.
27:24
(Laughter)
530
1644280
1776
(Smeh)
KA: Koliko je zapravo brzo?
27:26
CA: How fast does it actually go?
531
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2336
27:28
EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,
532
1648440
2816
IM: Pa, kad je u punoj brzini,
27:31
you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light.
533
1651280
3936
ne možete zapravo da vidite ćelije bez stroboskopa.
27:35
It's just blur.
534
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1200
Sve je zamagljeno.
27:36
(Laughter)
535
1656540
3336
(Smeh)
KA: Jedna od tvojih ključnih ideja, Ilone, o uzbudljivoj budućnosti
27:40
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future
536
1660000
3576
27:43
is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy.
537
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2640
je budućnost u kojoj nas savest više ne grize zbog energije.
27:47
Help us picture this.
538
1667480
1416
Pomozi nam da to zamislimo.
27:48
How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?
539
1668920
5016
Koliko Gigafabrika, ako hoćeš, je potrebno da to ostvarimo?
27:53
EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.
540
1673960
1736
IM: Radi se o oko stotinu, ugrubo.
27:55
It's not 10, it's not a thousand.
541
1675720
1736
Ne radi se o 10, niti hiljadu.
27:57
Most likely a hundred.
542
1677480
1360
Najverovatnije stotinu.
KA: Vidiš, to mi je neverovatno.
28:00
CA: See, I find this amazing.
543
1680040
1656
28:01
You can picture what it would take
544
1681720
3976
Možeš da zamisliš šta je potrebno
28:05
to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing.
545
1685720
3256
da se svet pomeri sa fosilnih goriva.
Čini se da jednu gradiš,
28:09
It's like you're building one,
546
1689000
2576
28:11
it costs five billion dollars,
547
1691600
2856
košta pet milijardi dolara,
28:14
or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.
548
1694480
2136
ili tako nešto, pet do 10 milijardi dolara.
28:16
Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project.
549
1696640
3616
Nekako je sjajno što možeš da zamisliš taj projekat.
28:20
And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.
550
1700280
4480
I planiraš, u Tesli - da ove godine najaviš još dve.
28:25
EM: I think we'll announce locations
551
1705480
2856
IM: Mislim da ćemo da najavimo lokacije
28:28
for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year.
552
1708360
3736
za nešto između dve i četiri Gigafabrike, kasnije u toku godine.
Da, verovatno četiri.
28:32
Yeah, probably four.
553
1712120
1440
KA: Opa!
28:34
CA: Whoa.
554
1714040
1616
28:35
(Applause)
555
1715680
2616
(Aplauz)
28:38
No more teasing from you for here?
556
1718320
4056
Nećeš nam ništa otkriti?
28:42
Like -- where, continent?
557
1722400
2800
Kao - gde, kontinent?
28:47
You can say no.
558
1727480
1200
Možeš da kažeš ne.
28:49
EM: We need to address a global market.
559
1729440
3776
IM: Moramo da se okrenemo globalnom tržištu.
28:53
CA: OK.
560
1733240
1216
KA: U redu.
28:54
(Laughter)
561
1734480
1336
(Smeh)
28:55
This is cool.
562
1735840
1200
Ovo je sjajno.
28:59
I think we should talk for --
563
1739480
4240
Mislim da bismo trebali da razgovaramo -
29:04
Actually, global market.
564
1744560
1616
Zapravo, dvostruko je podvučeno.
29:06
I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one.
565
1746200
4096
Upitaću te jedno pitanje o politici, samo jedno.
29:10
I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this.
566
1750320
3256
Nekako mi je muka od politike, ali želim ovo da te pitam.
29:13
You're on a body now giving advice to a guy --
567
1753600
6336
Trenutno si u odboru, savetuješ ovog čoveka -
29:19
EM: Who?
568
1759960
1216
IM: Kojeg?
29:21
CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change,
569
1761200
2896
KA: Koji je rekao da zaista ne veruje u klimatske promene
i ima mnogo ljudi u svetu koji misle da ne bi trebalo to da radiš.
29:24
and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that.
570
1764120
4336
29:28
They'd like you to walk away from that.
571
1768480
1896
Želeli bi da to napustiš.
29:30
What would you say to them?
572
1770400
1360
Šta bi im rekao?
29:32
EM: Well, I think that first of all,
573
1772720
3616
IM: Pa, mislim da pre svega,
29:36
I'm just on two advisory councils
574
1776360
2536
na svega sam dva savetodavna odbora
29:38
where the format consists of going around the room
575
1778920
2816
čiji se format sastoji od šetanja prostorijom
29:41
and asking people's opinion on things,
576
1781760
2896
i traženja mišljenja ljudi o stvarima
29:44
and so there's like a meeting every month or two.
577
1784680
3760
i imamo nekakav sastanak svakih mesec-dva dana.
29:49
That's the sum total of my contribution.
578
1789560
3216
To je ukupni zbir mog doprinosa.
29:52
But I think to the degree that there are people in the room
579
1792800
2776
Ali mislim da donekle ima ljudi u toj prostoriji
29:55
who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change,
580
1795600
4736
koji se zalažu za to da se učini nešto povodom klimatskih promena
30:00
or social issues,
581
1800360
4000
ili društvenih pitanja.
30:06
I've used the meetings I've had thus far
582
1806520
3216
Iskoristio sam dosadašnje sastanke
30:09
to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.
583
1809760
4856
da govorim u ime imigracije i u ime klimatskih promena.
30:14
(Applause)
584
1814640
1936
(Aplauz)
30:16
And if I hadn't done that,
585
1816600
2096
A da nisam uradio tako,
30:18
that wasn't on the agenda before.
586
1818720
2816
to ne bi bilo na dnevnom redu.
30:21
So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.
587
1821560
4240
Te, možda se ništa neće desiti, ali je barem nešto rečeno.
30:26
CA: OK.
588
1826680
1216
KA. U redu.
30:27
(Applause)
589
1827920
2880
(Aplauz)
30:31
So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.
590
1831800
3536
Razgovarajmo o Spejs iksu i Marsu.
30:35
Last time you were here,
591
1835360
1456
Kad si poslednji put bio ovde,
30:36
you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
592
1836840
3696
govorio si o nečemu što se činilo kao neverovatno ambiciozan san,
30:40
to develop rockets that were actually reusable.
593
1840560
4296
o pravljenju raketa koje zapravo imaju vešestruku upotrebu.
30:44
And you've only gone and done it.
594
1844880
2136
I prosto si se zaputio i to uradio.
IM: Konačno. Potrajalo je dugo.
30:47
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
595
1847040
1616
30:48
CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?
596
1848680
2576
KA: Objasni nam ovo. U šta gledamo?
IM: Dakle, ovo je jedan od naših raketnih akceleratora
30:51
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters
597
1851280
2136
30:53
coming back from very high and fast in space.
598
1853440
4576
koji ide veoma visoko i brzo u svemiru.
Upravo je gornji nivo razvio
30:58
So just delivered the upper stage
599
1858040
3256
31:01
at high velocity.
600
1861320
2096
veliku brzinu.
31:03
I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so,
601
1863440
3856
Mislim da je bila u rangu Mahovog broja 7 ili slično,
31:07
delivery of the upper stage.
602
1867320
1960
to je gornji nivo razvio.
31:10
(Applause)
603
1870880
2000
(Aplauz)
31:13
CA: So that was a sped-up --
604
1873840
1496
CA: Dakle, to je ubrzana -
31:15
EM: That was the slowed down version.
605
1875360
1816
IM: To je usporena verzija.
31:17
(Laughter)
606
1877200
1336
(Smeh)
31:18
CA: I thought that was the sped-up version.
607
1878560
2496
KA: Mislio sam da se radi o ubrzanom snimku.
Ali, mislim, to je sjajno,
31:21
But I mean, that's amazing,
608
1881080
1336
31:22
and several of these failed
609
1882440
1336
a nekoliko ovih je omanulo,
31:23
before you finally figured out how to do it,
610
1883800
2936
pre nego što ste konačno shvatili kako da to postignete,
31:26
but now you've done this, what, five or six times?
611
1886760
2896
ali sad ste to postigli, koliko, pet ili šest puta?
31:29
EM: We're at eight or nine.
612
1889680
2296
IM: Na osmom smo ili devetom.
KA: I prvi put,
31:32
CA: And for the first time,
613
1892000
1616
31:33
you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.
614
1893640
3136
zapravo ste ponovo leteli u jednoj od raketa koja se prizemljila.
31:36
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster
615
1896800
2776
IM: Da, prizemljili smo raketni akcelerator
31:39
and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again,
616
1899600
2616
i zatim ga pnovo pripremili za let i leteli ponovo njime,
31:42
so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster
617
1902240
5176
pa je to prvi ponovni let orbitalnog akceleratora
31:47
where that reflight is relevant.
618
1907440
1976
gde je taj ponovni let relevantan.
31:49
So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant
619
1909440
3176
Važno je shvatiti da je višestruka upotrebljivost jedino relevantna,
31:52
if it is rapid and complete.
620
1912640
4080
ako je brza i potpuna.
31:57
So like an aircraft or a car,
621
1917400
3256
Dakle, poput aviona ili auta,
32:00
the reusability is rapid and complete.
622
1920680
2376
višestruka upotreba je brza i potpuna.
Ne šaljete avion boingu između letova.
32:03
You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.
623
1923080
5056
KA: Tačno. Dakle, ovo ti omogućava da sanjaš o toj krajnje ambicioznoj ideji
32:08
CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea
624
1928160
4816
da pošalješ mnoge, mnoge, mnoge ljude na Mars
32:13
of sending many, many, many people to Mars
625
1933000
3176
32:16
in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
626
1936200
2416
za, koliko, 10 ili 20 godina, pretpostavljam.
32:18
EM: Yeah.
627
1938640
1376
IM: Da.
KA: I dizajnirao si ovu zaprepašćujuću raketu za to.
32:20
CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it.
628
1940040
3416
32:23
Help us understand the scale of this thing.
629
1943480
2416
Pomozi nam da razumemo razmere ovoga.
32:25
EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person.
630
1945920
4880
IM: Pa, vizuelno možete da spazite osobu pored.
32:32
Yeah, and that's the vehicle.
631
1952680
1816
Da, a to je vozilo.
32:34
(Laughter)
632
1954520
1656
(Smeh)
32:36
CA: So if that was a skyscraper,
633
1956200
1736
KA: Dakle, da je to neboder,
32:37
that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?
634
1957960
3336
to je poput, da li sam tako pročitao, poput 40-ospratnice?
32:41
EM: Probably a little more, yeah.
635
1961320
1600
IM: Verovatno je malo više, da.
32:44
The thrust level of this is really --
636
1964360
4000
Stepen potiska ovoga je zaista -
32:50
This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
637
1970360
4920
Potisak konfiguracije je oko četiri puta veći od potiska rakete Saturn V.
32:56
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.
638
1976440
4856
KA: Četiri puta veći potisak od najveće rakete koju je čovečanstvo ikad napravilo.
33:01
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
639
1981320
1200
IM: Da. Da.
33:04
CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.
640
1984640
1456
CA: Kako obično biva. IM: Da.
(Smeh)
33:06
(Laughter)
641
1986120
2976
U jedinicama boinga 747, 747 je tek oko 113 398 kilograma potiska,
33:09
In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
642
1989120
5976
pa za svaka 4,5 miliona kilograma potiska,
33:15
so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,
643
1995120
3096
33:18
there's 40 747s.
644
1998240
1696
imamo 40 boinga 747.
33:19
So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
645
1999960
6256
Dakle, ovo bi bio potisak jednak 120 boinga 747, s užarenim motorima.
33:26
CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity,
646
2006240
4216
KA: Čak i sa mašinom dizajniranom da odoli Zemljinoj gravitaciji,
33:30
I think you told me last time
647
2010480
1416
mislim da si mi poslednji put rekao
33:31
this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747,
648
2011920
3256
da ovo zapravo može da primi krcat 747,
33:35
people, cargo, everything,
649
2015200
2336
sa sve ljudima, prtljagom, svim,
33:37
into orbit.
650
2017560
1256
u orbitu.
33:38
EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
651
2018840
5136
IM: Upravo. Ovo može da primi krcat 747 sa punim rezervoarom,
popunjenim sedištima, maksimalnim prtljagom na 747 -
33:44
maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 --
652
2024000
4496
33:48
this can take it as cargo.
653
2028520
2240
ova raketa-nosač to može da primi kao prtljag.
KA: Dakle, na osnovu ovoga,
33:52
CA: So based on this,
654
2032080
1736
33:53
you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System
655
2033840
4816
skoro si predstavio Međuplanetarni transportni sistem,
33:58
which is visualized this way.
656
2038680
3376
koji je ovako vizualizovan.
Ovo je prizor koji zamišljaš za, koliko, 30 godina? 20 godina?
34:02
This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time?
657
2042080
4080
34:06
People walking into this rocket.
658
2046880
2576
Da će ljudi ušetati u ovu raketu.
34:09
EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame.
659
2049480
4576
IM: Nadam se da će da bude otprilike za osam do 10 godina.
Težimo tome, to nam je cilj.
34:14
Aspirationally, that's our target.
660
2054080
2376
34:16
Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --
661
2056480
3016
Naši interni ciljevi su nešto agresivniji, ali mislim -
34:19
(Laughter)
662
2059520
2159
(Smeh)
34:23
CA: OK.
663
2063600
1215
KA: U redu.
34:24
EM: While vehicle seems quite large
664
2064840
2136
IM: Iako se vozilo čini prilično velikim
i veliko je u poređenju s drugim raketama,
34:27
and is large by comparison with other rockets,
665
2067000
2176
34:29
I think the future spacecraft
666
2069199
3977
mislim da će naspram budućih kosmičkih brodova
34:33
will make this look like a rowboat.
667
2073199
3841
ovo izgledati kao čamac.
34:38
The future spaceships will be truly enormous.
668
2078320
4696
Budući svemirski brodovi će da budu istinski ogromni.
KA: Zašto, Ilone?
34:43
CA: Why, Elon?
669
2083040
2176
34:45
Why do we need to build a city on Mars
670
2085239
4137
Zašto moramo da sagradimo grad na Marsu
34:49
with a million people on it in your lifetime,
671
2089400
3056
sa milion ljudi u njemu, u tvom životnom veku,
34:52
which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do?
672
2092480
3000
što je nekako nešto što si rekao da bi voleo da uradiš?
34:56
EM: I think it's important to have
673
2096480
2759
IM: Mislim da je važno imati
budućnost koja je inspirativna i privlačna.
35:01
a future that is inspiring and appealing.
674
2101120
2736
35:03
I just think there have to be reasons
675
2103880
2776
Prosto smatram da moraju da postoje razlozi
35:06
that you get up in the morning and you want to live.
676
2106679
2937
zbog kojih se ujutru budite i želite da živite.
35:09
Like, why do you want to live?
677
2109640
1456
Kao, zašto želite da živite?
Šta je svrha? Šta vas inspiriše?
35:11
What's the point? What inspires you?
678
2111120
1736
35:12
What do you love about the future?
679
2112880
1856
Šta vam se sviđa kod budućnosti?
35:14
And if we're not out there,
680
2114760
1496
A ako nismo tamo negde,
35:16
if the future does not include being out there among the stars
681
2116280
4016
ako budućnost ne uključuje nas tamo negde među zvezdama
35:20
and being a multiplanet species,
682
2120320
1696
i da smo višeplanetarna vrsta,
nekako mi je to neverovatno deprimirajuće,
35:22
I find that it's incredibly depressing
683
2122040
2496
35:24
if that's not the future that we're going to have.
684
2124560
3336
ako to nije budućnost koju ćemo da imamo.
35:27
(Applause)
685
2127920
4176
(Aplauz)
KA: Ljudi žele da svrstaju ovo među ili-ili,
35:32
CA: People want to position this as an either or,
686
2132120
2336
35:34
that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now
687
2134480
3696
da postoji toliko očajnih stvari koje se trenutno dešavaju na planeti,
35:38
from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue.
688
2138200
3440
od klime do siromaštva do, znaš, izaberi problem.
35:42
And this feels like a distraction.
689
2142480
2536
A ovo izgleda kao odvlačenje pažnje.
Ne bi trebalo da razmišljaš o ovome.
35:45
You shouldn't be thinking about this.
690
2145040
1816
35:46
You should be solving what's here and now.
691
2146880
2176
Trebalo bi da se baviš onim što je ovde i sad.
I, pošteno je reći, da si imao svoj popriličan udeo u tome,
35:49
And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that
692
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svojim radom na održivoj energiji.
35:52
with your work on sustainable energy.
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35:54
But why not just do that?
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Ali zašto se ne baviti samo time?
35:59
EM: I think there's --
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IM: Mislim da postoji -
36:04
I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities.
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Posmatram budućnost s tačke gledišta verovatnoće.
36:09
It's like a branching stream of probabilities,
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Poput razgranate bujice verovatnoće,
36:13
and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities
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i postoje postupci koje možemo da uradimo koji utiču na tu verovatnoću
36:19
or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing.
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ili koji ubrzavaju jednu stvar ili usporavaju drugu stvar.
Možda uvedem nešto novo u bujicu verovatnoće.
36:24
I may introduce something new to the probability stream.
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36:30
Sustainable energy will happen no matter what.
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Održiva energija će se desiti bez obzira na sve.
Da nije bilo Tesle, da Tesla nikad nije postojala,
36:33
If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed,
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36:35
it would have to happen out of necessity.
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desilo bi se iz nužde.
36:38
It's tautological.
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To je tautološki.
Ako nemate održivu energiju, to znači da imate neodrživu energiju.
36:40
If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy.
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36:43
Eventually you will run out,
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Vremenom ćete je potrošiti,
36:45
and the laws of economics will drive civilization
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te će ekonomski zakoni voditi civilizaciju
36:51
towards sustainable energy,
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ka održivoj energiji,
36:52
inevitably.
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neizbežno.
Temeljna vrednost firme, poput Tesle,
36:54
The fundamental value of a company like Tesla
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je stepen do kog ubrzava dolazak održive energije,
36:57
is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy,
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37:01
faster than it would otherwise occur.
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brže nego što bi inače do nje došlo.
Pa kad razmišljam, kao,
37:05
So when I think, like,
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37:06
what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla,
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šta je temeljna dobrobit firme, poput Tesle,
rekao bih, nadam se,
37:09
I would say, hopefully,
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37:10
if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade,
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da ako je ubrzala sve to za deceniju, potencijalno više od decenije,
37:16
that would be quite a good thing to occur.
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to bi bila prilično dobra stvar koja se desila.
37:18
That's what I consider to be
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To ja smatram
37:20
the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.
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temeljnom dobrobiti kojoj teži Tesla.
37:25
Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization.
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Potom, naše pretvaranje u višeplanetarnu vrstu i civilizaciju svemirskih putnika.
37:31
This is not inevitable.
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To nije neizbežno.
37:33
It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable.
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Veoma je važno da cenimo da to nije neizbežno.
37:36
The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable,
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Budućnost održive energije, mislim da je većim delom neizbežna,
37:39
but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable.
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ali biti civilizacija svemirskih putnika definitivno nije neizbežno.
37:44
If you look at the progress in space,
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Ako posmatrate napredak u svemiru,
37:48
in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon.
726
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1969. ste bili u stanju da nekoga pošaljete na mesec.
1969.
37:52
1969.
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1200
37:54
Then we had the Space Shuttle.
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Potom smo imali spejs-šatl.
37:57
The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit.
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Spejs-šatl je jedino mogao da odvede ljude do niže Zemljine orbite.
38:01
Then the Space Shuttle retired,
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Potom se spejs-šatl penzionisao,
38:02
and the United States could take no one to orbit.
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i Sjedinjene Države nikog nisu mogle povesti u orbitu.
38:06
So that's the trend.
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Dakle, to je trend.
38:07
The trend is like down to nothing.
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Trend se spušta do nule.
38:11
People are mistaken when they think
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Ljudi greše kad misle
38:13
that technology just automatically improves.
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da se tehnologija prosto automatski unapređuje.
Ne unapređuje se automatski.
38:16
It does not automatically improve.
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Jedino se unapređuje kada mnogo ljudi veoma vredno radi na njenom unapređenju
38:18
It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better,
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38:22
and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually.
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i zapravo mislim da će prepuštena samoj sebi da se unazadi.
38:28
You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt,
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Pogledajte velike civilizacije, poput drevnog Egipta,
38:30
and they were able to make the pyramids,
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1936
oni su bii u stanju da naprave piramide,
38:32
and they forgot how to do that.
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i zaboravili su kako se to radi.
38:34
And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts.
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Potom Rimljani, gradili su te neverovatne akvadukte.
38:37
They forgot how to do it.
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Zaboravili su kako se to radi.
38:40
CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you
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KA: Ilone, gotovo da se čini, dok te slušam
38:42
and looking at the different things you've done,
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i posmatram različite stvari koje si uradio,
da imaš tu jedinstvenu dvostruku motivaciju za sve,
38:45
that you've got this unique double motivation on everything
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38:47
that I find so interesting.
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koja je meni zanimljiva.
38:51
One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good.
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Prva je žudnja da delaš u ime dugoročne dobrobiti čovečanstva.
38:56
The other is the desire to do something exciting.
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Druga je žudnja da uradiš nešto uzbudljivo.
38:58
And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other.
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I često se čini kao da osećaš da ti je potrebna jedna da pokreće drugu.
39:03
With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy,
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S Teslom želiš da imaš održivu energiju,
39:06
so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it.
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pa si napravio ova izuzetno privlačna, uzbudljiva auta za to.
Solarna energija, moramo to da ostvarimo,
39:11
Solar energy, we need to get there,
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39:12
so we need to make these beautiful roofs.
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te moramo da pravimo te lepe krovove.
39:14
We haven't even spoken about your newest thing,
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Nismo čak ni pomenuli tvoj najnoviji projekat,
za koji nemamo sad vremena,
39:17
which we don't have time to do,
756
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39:18
but you want to save humanity from bad AI,
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ali želiš da spasiš čovečanstvo od zle VI,
39:20
and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface
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te ćeš da napraviš taj istinski sjajan interfejs za mozak i mašinu
39:24
to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth.
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da nam svima obezbediš neograničeno pamćenje i telepatiju itd.
A na Marsu, utisak je da kao da govoriš:
39:28
And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is,
760
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39:30
yeah, we need to save humanity
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da, moramo da spasimo čovečanstvo
39:34
and have a backup plan,
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i da imamo rezervni plan,
39:35
but also we need to inspire humanity,
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ali takođe moramo da inspirišemo čovečanstvo,
39:39
and this is a way to inspire.
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a ovo je način za to.
39:45
EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration
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IM: Mislim da je vrednost lepote i inspiracije
39:49
is very much underrated,
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poprilično potcenjena,
39:51
no question.
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bez sumnje.
Ali želim da budem jasan.
39:53
But I want to be clear.
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39:54
I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.
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Ne pokušavam da budem ičiji spasilac.
39:56
That is not the --
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To nije -
39:58
I'm just trying to think about the future
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prosto pokušavam da razmišljam o budućnosti
i da ne budem tužan.
40:02
and not be sad.
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40:04
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
40:06
CA: Beautiful statement.
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KA: Prelepa izjava.
40:10
I think everyone here would agree
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Mislim da će se svi ovde složiti
40:11
that it is not --
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da nije -
40:13
None of this is going to happen inevitably.
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Da se bilo šta od ovoga neće neizbežno desiti.
40:15
The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff,
778
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Činjenica da u tovm umu sanjaš sve ovo,
40:19
you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream,
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sanjaš stvari koje se niko drugi ne bi usudio da sanja
ili ne bi bio u stanju da sanja
40:22
or no one else would be capable of dreaming
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40:24
at the level of complexity that you do.
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na nivou složenosti na kom ti to radiš.
40:28
The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing.
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Činjenica da to radiš, Ilon Mask, je zaista izvanredna stvar.
40:31
Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.
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Hvala ti što nam pomažeš da sanjamo bar malo više.
40:34
EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?
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IM: Ali reći ćete mi ako se ikad pretvori u nešto krajnje sumanuto, je li tako?
40:37
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
40:40
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic.
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KA: Hvala ti, Ilon Mask. Bilo je zaista, zaista fantastično.
40:43
That was really fantastic.
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Bilo je zaista fantastično.
(Aplauz)
40:45
(Applause)
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