Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring | TED

譯者: Queenie Lee 審譯者: NAN-KUN WU

Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.

克里斯 • 安德森（安）： 伊隆，歡迎再次參加 TED。

It's great to have you here.

真的很榮幸你能來。

Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.

伊隆 • 馬斯克（馬）：多謝邀請。

CA: So, in the next half hour or so,

安：接下來的半個多小時，

we're going to spend some time

我們要花點時間

exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like,

探索你的願景，未來怎樣令人興奮。

which I guess makes the first question a little ironic:

我想問的第一個問題會有點反諷。

Why are you boring?

你為什麽無聊？（註：他的公司取名 「無聊」The BORING Company ）

EM: Yeah.

馬：是啊。

I ask myself that frequently.

我也經常這麽問自己。

We're trying to dig a hole under LA,

我們打算在洛杉磯的 地底下挖個大窟窿，

and this is to create the beginning

這可是開創了新起點，

of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels

希望建成三維網路隧道，

to alleviate congestion.

來緩解交通擁堵。

So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic.

現在交通是件最令人難以忍受的事，

It affects people in every part of the world.

影響到世界各地的人，

It takes away so much of your life.

也佔用了人很多的時間。

It's horrible.

這太可怕了。

It's particularly horrible in LA.

在洛杉磯尤其恐怖。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: I think you've brought with you

安：我想你帶來了

the first visualization that's been shown of this.

未來工程的首映片。

Can I show this?

我能放嗎？

EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time --

馬：當然可以了，這還是第一次，

Just to show what we're talking about.

讓大家看看我們在說什麼。

So a couple of key things that are important

裏面有幾個很重要的關鍵

in having a 3D tunnel network.

在講三維網路隧道的建設。

First of all, you have to be able

你得先整合隧道的入出口，

to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel

seamlessly into the fabric of the city.

無縫對接城市。

So by having an elevator,

所以，藉由電梯

sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator,

和位於電梯上的汽車滑托，

you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network

就可以整合隧道的網路出入口，

just by using two parking spaces.

只佔用兩個停車位的空間。

And then the car gets on a skate.

接著車子就上了汽車滑托。

There's no speed limit here,

隧道是不限速的。

so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.

我們設計車速能到每小時 200 公里。

CA: How much?

安：多快？

EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour.

馬：時速 200 公里，約 130 英里。

So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX

從西木區到洛杉磯機場應該

只要六分鐘，五、六分鐘的樣子。

in six minutes -- five, six minutes.

(Applause)

（掌聲）

CA: So possibly, initially done,

安：因此竣工以後

it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.

可能類似收費公路。

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的。

CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic

安：我想這也可以

from the surface streets as well.

緩解部分地面交通的壓力。

EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video,

馬：我不知道大家 有沒有在影片中注意到

but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have.

挖多少層隧道其實沒有限制。

You can go much further deep than you can go up.

你可以往下挖的深度 遠多於往上蓋的高度。

The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall,

最深的礦井深度比最高的建築還要高，

so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion

所以想要緩解任何級別的城市擁堵

with a 3D tunnel network.

都可以通過三維網路隧道來解決。

This is a very important point.

這是非常重要的一點。

So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels,

反駁隧道可行性的一樣關鍵是

每增加一層隧道來紓解交通壅塞

that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up,

很快就會被塞滿而失效，

and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion.

然後你回到起始點，又壅塞了。

But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels,

不過你可以想挖多少層就挖多少層，

any number of levels.

多少層都可以。

CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig,

安：可是依過往的經驗， 挖地道非常耗錢，

and that would block this idea.

有可能會阻礙這個想法。

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的，

Well, they're right.

他們是沒錯。

To give you an example, the LA subway extension,

擧個例子，洛杉磯地鐵的延伸工程，

which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension

我想是兩英里半的擴建，

that was just completed for two billion dollars.

剛剛完工，花了二十億美元。

So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA.

所以在洛杉磯擴建地鐵 大約每英里十億美元。

And this is not the highest utility subway in the world.

這還不是世上最高效用的地鐵。

So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally.

說的沒錯，挖隧道通常都很難。

I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement

我想至少每英里的成本需改善十倍

in the cost per mile of tunneling.

才能夠用隧道施工法。

CA: And how could you achieve that?

安：那如何實現呢？

EM: Actually, if you just do two things,

馬：其實，只要做兩件事，

you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement,

大約可提高一個數量級， （註：十分之一的花費）

and I think you can go beyond that.

我想還可以更好。

So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter

第一件事是縮小隧道直徑，

by a factor of two or more.

縮一半或更多。

So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations

據法律規定，一條單程隧道

has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter

得有 26 或 28 英尺的直徑，

to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles

要考慮撞車和緊急車輛的通行，

and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars.

還要讓機動車夠通風。

But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting,

但如果縮小直徑── 我們在嘗試12 英尺──

which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through,

夠電動滑托通過了。

you drop the diameter by a factor of two

把直徑減到一半，

and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four,

截面積會縮小四倍，

and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.

對應切面的隧道成本也會降低四倍，

So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.

那大約改善了半個數量級。

Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop,

現在的挖隧道機 挖到一半時會停下來，

and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements

留下時間加固，

for the tunnel wall.

加固隧道壁。

So if you design the machine instead

所以如果有人設計機械

to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing,

連續挖隧道還同時加固，

that will give you a factor of two improvement.

那就是兩倍的改善。

Combine that and that's a factor of eight.

兩個加起來，就是八倍。

Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits,

而且這些機器遠未發揮 最大效能和熱極限，

so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially.

可以大幅提昇機器的功率，

I think you can get at least a factor of two,

我想至少增效兩倍，

maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that.

甚至四、五倍的提升。

So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps

我覺得靠這一系列 相當直接簡潔的步驟，

to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement

能達到超過一個數量級的改進，

in the cost per mile,

以每英里的成本來計算的話。

and our target actually is --

而我們的目標實際上是──

we've got a pet snail called Gary,

我們有隻叫「小蝸」的寵物蝸牛，

this is from Gary the snail from "South Park,"

是「南方公園」電視節目的小蝸牛，

I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."

抱歉，我想說的是「海綿寶寶」。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So Gary is capable of --

「小蝸」很有能力，

currently he's capable of going 14 times faster

目前它能比隧道鑽掘機

快 14 倍。

than a tunnel-boring machine.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: You want to beat Gary.

安：你想打敗「小蝸」。

EM: We want to beat Gary.

馬：我們想打敗「小蝸」。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

He's not a patient little fellow,

他可不是有耐心的小傢伙，

and that will be victory.

我們要──那就是勝利。

Victory is beating the snail.

勝利就是打敗蝸牛。

安：但也有很多人 在幻想未來城市的時候，

CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities,

they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.

想到的解決之道 是飛行汽車，無人機等等，

You go aboveground.

在地面上發展。

Why isn't that a better solution?

為什麼那些不是更好的方案？

You save all that tunneling cost.

那些都省掉大筆隧道成本。

EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.

馬：是的。我支持飛行器。

Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly.

我做火箭， 顯然我喜歡會飛的玩意兒。

This is not some inherent bias against flying things,

我內心對飛行器沒有偏見，

but there is a challenge with flying cars

但飛行汽車有問題，

in that they'll be quite noisy,

因為他們會很吵，

the wind force generated will be very high.

飛來飛去產生的風也很大。

假如有東西在你的頭上方飛，

Let's just say that if something's flying over your head,

a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place,

一大堆車子在空中到處飛，

that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.

這場面不由得讓人焦慮。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today."

你可不會想：「我覺得今天很不錯。」

You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap,

你可能會想：「這車的輪轂保養了嗎？

or is it going to come off and guillotine me?"

會不會脫落斬斷我的脖子？」

Things like that.

類似這種狀況。

CA: So you've got this vision

安：所以你想像的前景

of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath.

未來城市是四通八達的 立體地下網路隧道。

Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?

這搭配超迴路列車（Hyperloop）嗎？

Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea

你會把幾年前發布的超迴路列車概念

you released a few years ago.

用在這些隧道嗎？

EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around

馬：是的，我們嘗試超迴路列車

with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.

有段時間了。

We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX,

我們毗鄰 SpaceX 建了一條 超迴路列車測試賽道，

just for a student competition,

是個學生競賽，

to encourage innovative ideas in transport.

激發學生想出交通運輸的新創想法。

And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world

實際上它是目前世上最大的真空艙，

after the Large Hadron Collider,

僅次於大型強子對撞機，

by volume.

按體積來算的話。

So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing,

做這個很有趣，但是個業餘興趣，

and then we think we might --

我們想──

so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods,

我們造了輛助力車 來推動學生的競賽車廂，

but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go

但我們也想看助力車能跑多快，

if it's not pushing something.

尤其是空載的狀態下。

So we're cautiously optimistic

我們對此審慎樂觀，

we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train

有可能會比世界上 最快的子彈列車還要快，

even in a .8-mile stretch.

即便是跑在 0.8 英里長的軌道上。

CA: Whoa. Good brakes.

安：噢，剎車系統很不錯。

EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.

馬：是的，我的意思是──不錯。

It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.

要麼粉成了碎片，要麽就快到無敵。

安：但你可以想像下， 超迴路列車行駛在隧道中，

CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel

running quite long distances.

還能跑很遠。

EM: Exactly.

馬：完全正確。

And looking at tunneling technology,

再看看隧道技術，

it turns out that in order to make a tunnel,

事實證明要想挖隧道，

you have to --

你必須──

In order to seal against the water table,

為了要密封對付地下水，

you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good

通常設計的隧道牆

要硬到能承受至少五、六個大氣壓。

to about five or six atmospheres.

So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,

而真空下只要一個大氣壓，

or near-vacuum.

或近真空的狀態。

So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically,

事實上，自然而然，

if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table,

如果你造的隧道好到能防地下水，

it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.

顯然就能夠維持真空。

CA: Huh.

安：嗯。

EM: So, yeah.

馬：是啊。

CA: And so you could actually picture,

安：你想未來要運行你的

what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?

Hyperloop 隧道得有多長？

EM: I think there's no real length limit.

馬：我想長度不受限。

You could dig as much as you want.

你可以想挖多長就挖多長。

I think if you were to do something

我想如果你要建造

like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,

像華府特區到紐約的 Hyperloop，

I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way

你可能要把整條路都挪到地底下去。

because it's a high-density area.

因為這些地方的人口高度集中，

You're going under a lot of buildings and houses,

你要穿過很多建築和房屋底下。

and if you go deep enough,

只要挖得夠深，

you cannot detect the tunnel.

你感覺不到隧道的存在。

Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying

有時人們覺得會很煩，

to have a tunnel dug under my house.

如果在我家地底下挖隧道的話。

Like, if that tunnel is dug

假如把隧道挖到

more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house,

超過你房底三、四個隧道直徑深，

you will not be able to detect it being dug at all.

你根本就不會感到它在挖洞。

In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug,

事實上，要是你能感覺到在挖隧道，

whatever device you are using,

不管用什麽裝備，

you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military,

你都可以用那裝備 從以色列軍方撈上一筆，

who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas,

因為他們一直在嘗試 偵察出哈馬斯的隧道，

and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels.

當然還有美國海關和邊檢， 他們一直嘗試偵測地下販毒。

So the reality is

但其實是

that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations,

地球很能吸收振動，

and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level,

一旦隧道挖到一定的深度，

it is undetectable.

就測不到了。

Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument,

你得有高靈敏度的測震儀

you might be able to detect it.

才可能測得到。

CA: So you've started a new company to do this

安：你開了新公司專門做這個，

called The Boring Company.

叫做「The Boring Company」。

Very nice. Very funny.

很好。很好笑。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

EM: What's funny about that?

馬：有什麼好笑的？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: How much of your time is this?

安：你花多少時間在這項目上？

EM: It's maybe ...

馬：大概

two or three percent.

2％ 到 3％。

CA: You've called it a hobby.

安：你買了個業餘愛好。

This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.

伊隆 • 馬斯克的業餘愛好像這樣！

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

EM: I mean, it really is, like --

馬：我的意思是它真的是

This is basically interns and people doing it part time.

基本上是實習生和兼職的人在做。

We bought some second-hand machinery.

我們買了些二手設備。

It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --

好像是在消磨時光，但進展還不錯。

CA: So an even bigger part of your time

安：你更大部分的時間

is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla.

花在特斯拉電動車和運輸。

Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project

你挖隧道的動機……

the realization that actually,

你實際去挖隧道的原因之一，

in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving,

是不是因為一旦世上 有了電動車和自駕車，

there may end up being more cars on the roads

未來路上的汽車可能比目前更多呢？

on any given hour than there are now?

EM: Yeah, exactly.

馬：是的，確實這樣。

A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous,

很多人覺得一旦讓汽車自動駕駛，

they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion.

可以開得更快還能緩解交通。

And to some degree that will be true,

一定程度上有它的道理。

but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car

然而一旦共用自駕車更便宜，

and you can go point to point,

任意起點、目的地都到得了，

the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.

搭車將比搭巴士便宜，

Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.

價格低於巴士的票價。

So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy,

所以共用自駕會使上路的汽車更多，

and actually traffic will get far worse.

交通會變得更糟。

CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world

安：你成立特斯拉要說服全世界

that electrification was the future of cars,

電動車是未來。

and a few years ago, people were laughing at you.

幾年前人們取笑你，

Now, not so much.

現在沒那麼多了。

EM: OK.

馬：好吧，

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I don't know. I don't know.

我不知道。

CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer

安：是不是真的每家汽車製造商

has announced serious electrification plans

都鄭重其事地推出電動車計劃，

for the short- to medium-term future?

目標設在中或短期的未來？

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

馬：是啊，可不是麽。

I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program.

我想幾乎每家汽車製造商 都有些電動車計劃，

They vary in seriousness.

僅在投入的精力上有所區別。

Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric,

有些非常認真地要完全轉向電動，

and some are just dabbling in it.

有些只不過是略微涉足。

And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells,

令人想不到的是 有些還在追逐燃料電池，

but I think that won't last much longer.

我覺得他們撐不了太久。

CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,

安：伊隆，這有道理嗎？

where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it."

你現在是可以宣佈勝利： 「我們做到了。」

Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?

讓汽車界電氣化， 接著你繼續關注別的東西？

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的。

I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine,

在以後可預見的一段時間内， 我打算留在特斯拉，

and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming.

我們還有很多令人興奮的東西，

Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.

很明顯地 Model 3 要上市了。

We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.

我們還將揭曉特斯拉半掛式卡車。

CA: OK, we're going to come to this.

安：好的，我們現在就來看一下，

So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish.

Model 3 預定在七月左右面市。

EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July.

馬：是的，看起來能在七月開始生產。

CA: Wow.

安：很棒。

One of the things that people are so excited about

人們很興奮的是

is the fact that it's got autopilot.

它能自動駕駛。

And you put out this video a while back

這片子你放出來有段時間了，

showing what that technology would look like.

也講了未來技術是什麼樣的。

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的。

CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now.

安：現在是 Model S 自動駕駛。

What are we seeing here?

我們看到什麼？

EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS.

馬：沒錯，這車只用相機和 GPS，

So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here.

沒用光達也沒用雷達。（註：LIDAR， light detection and ranging）

This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses.

僅用無源光，大多數人用的那種。

The whole road system is meant to be navigated

整個道路系統的導航

with passive optical, or cameras,

採用無源光，也稱為相機，

and so once you solve cameras

一旦可以用相機解決，

or vision,

或掌控視線，

then autonomy is solved.

那麼自動駕駛就解決了。

If you don't solve vision, it's not solved.

不解決視線，問題就沒解決。

So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net

這也是為什麼我們 特別關注視覺神經網路，

that's very effective for road conditions.

對於識別路面狀況非常有效。

CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route.

安：對，其他好些人使用光達。

You want cameras plus radar is most of it.

你把雷達和相機加在一起用。

EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras.

馬：單用相機就絕對已經超人了。

Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would,

只用相機完全可以十倍於人類，

just cameras.

只用相機哦。

CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them.

安：現在市面上的新車有八台相機，

They can't yet do what that showed.

還做不到影片顯示的那樣。

When will they be able to?

那什麼時候可以？

EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country

馬：我們長途越野的時程仍如計畫，

from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.

到年底將實現從洛杉磯到紐約 完全自動駕駛。

CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying,

安：好的，你是說到年底，

someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel,

坐上特斯拉的人，無需操控方向盤，

tap in "New York," off it goes.

點一下「紐約」，就啟程了。

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的。

CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.

安：到 2017 年底，無需再摸方向盤。

EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year,

馬：差不多是今年的 11 或 12 月，

we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California

我們應該能從加州的停車場，

一路開到紐約的停車場，

to a parking lot in New York,

no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.

全程無需觸控。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

CA: Amazing.

安：太棒了。

But part of that is possible

但這可辦得到的部分原因

because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads.

是因為你已有整個 特斯拉車隊行駛在路上，

You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.

累積了海量的全國道路系統數據。

EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting

馬：是的，更有趣的是──

is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route

實際上，我相當有自信

它能行駛特定的路徑，

even if you change the route dynamically.

即使隨機變換路徑也到得了。

So, it's fairly easy --

這很簡單。

If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing,

走特定的路徑很行是一回事，

but it should be able to go, really be very good,

但必須要能，非常能，

certainly once you enter a highway,

一旦駛入高速公路系統，

to go anywhere on the highway system

想到哪兒就能到哪兒，

in a given country.

不論在哪一個國家。

So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York.

所以不限於從洛杉磯到紐約，

We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida,

我們還可以改成 從西雅圖到佛羅里達，

that day, in real time.

就在同一天，隨時隨地。

So you were going from LA to New York.

你本來是從洛杉磯去紐約，

Now go from LA to Toronto.

現在改為從洛杉磯去多倫多。

CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second,

安：把法律規章先放一旁，

in terms of the technology alone,

僅就技術而言，

the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars

當有人買了你的車，

and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep

簡直就能雙手離開方向盤， 放心大膽去睡覺，

and wake up and find that they've arrived,

一覺醒來，發現已到目的地了。

how far away is that, to do that safely?

離實現還要多久？

EM: I think that's about two years.

馬：我覺得大概得兩年。

So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work

真正棘手的不是

say 99.9 percent of the time,

99.9％ 的時間行得通，

because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times,

因為就算一千次裡撞車一次，

then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep.

那你就沒法放心睡覺了。

You shouldn't be, certainly.

絕對不會，那肯定的。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It's never going to be perfect.

沒有什麽事情是完美的，

No system is going to be perfect,

沒有系統全然完美。

but if you say it's perhaps --

但是如果說

the car is unlikely to crash

這車不太可能

in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes,

在百倍或千倍壽命期間撞車，

then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives,

那人們會被打動，

當然我沒千倍長的壽命，

I would still most likely never experience a crash,

在我活著的期間應該不會撞車，

then that's probably OK.

那是可以接受的。

CA: To sleep.

安：安心去睡覺。

I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually

我猜你最擔心的

是人們可能過早被誘惑 而認為這是安全的，

get seduced too early to think that this is safe,

and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.

然後發生可怕的事情，以致倒退了。

EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash,

馬：我覺得自駕系統 至少能減輕事故的發生，

except in rare circumstances.

除非在極端情況下。

The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety

我們要意識到車輛的安全性

is this is probabilistic.

是概率事件。

I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car,

我的意思是任何時候

都有可能因為人為疏失而發生車禍，

that they will have an accident that is their fault.

It's never zero.

概率從來不是零。

So really the key threshold for autonomy

事實上，自動駕駛的關鍵障礙是

is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person

自動駕駛比人駕駛要好過多少，

然後你就能夠依賴它。

before you can rely on it?

CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving,

安：一旦你的安全自駕成真，

the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive,

看來它顛覆整個業界的 力量會很巨大，

because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car,

因為你說的是到時候 能買輛車載你去上班，

drops you off at work, and then you let it go

然後讓那車像 Uber 那樣 接送其他的人，

and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people,

earn you money,

為你賺錢，甚至分擔你租車的費用，

maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car,

so you can kind of get a car for free.

就像你能免費得了一輛車。

Is that really likely?

真的有可能嗎？

EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen.

馬：是的，這絕對會發生。

So there will be a shared autonomy fleet

以後會有共用的自駕車隊。

where you buy your car

你買輛車，

and you can choose to use that car exclusively,

可選擇只供自己一個人使用，

you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family,

也可以僅給親朋好友使用，

only by other drivers who are rated five star,

或僅限於其他有五星評級的用車人，

you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times.

你可以選擇分享這車的時段。

That's 100 percent what will occur.

這百分之百會發生，

It's just a question of when.

只不過是時間早晚而已。

CA: Wow.

安：喔。

So you mentioned the Semi

你提到了半掛式卡車，

and I think you're planning to announce this in September,

我記得你打算在九月發佈，

but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today?

但我想知道今天 你打算讓我們看看嗎？

EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.

馬：我帶來了卡車預告片的海報。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It's alive.

它活生生的。

CA: OK.

安：不錯。

EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious

馬：這絕對是我們對於 自駕功能要謹慎的例子。

about the autonomy features.

Yeah.

沒錯。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: We can't see that much of it,

安：我們看不太清楚，

but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck.

但看起來不像友善的鄰家卡車，

It looks kind of badass.

看起來有點像是個壞蛋。

What sort of semi is this?

這是什麼樣的半掛車？

EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck.

馬：這是重負載、長程的半掛式卡車。

So it's the highest weight capability

它載重最高，

and with long range.

還能跑很遠，

So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads.

本質上就是載重用途。

And this is something which people do not today think is possible.

現今人們認為這不可能，

They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range,

他們認為卡車的電力不夠， 跑不了太遠；

and then with the Tesla Semi

我們要用特斯拉半掛車 顯示給他們看，

we want to show that no, an electric truck

實際上電動卡車的扭矩

actually can out-torque any diesel semi.

勝過任何柴油半掛式卡車。

And if you had a tug-of-war competition,

如果來場拔河比賽，

the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.

特斯拉半掛會把柴油半掛車拉上山。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless.

安：那真是酷。短期來看， 還不是無人駕駛。

These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.

這是卡車司機很想開的那種車。

EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this

馬：是的。那真正好玩有趣的是

is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor,

用電動馬達，你會有條 平滑的扭矩／轉速曲線，

whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car,

而柴油發動機或任意類型內燃機的

you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill.

扭矩／轉速曲線像山形。

So this will be a very spry truck.

這將是非常輕快的卡車，

You can drive this around like a sports car.

開它就像開跑車一樣。

There's no gears. It's, like, single speed.

沒有齒輪，有點像單速車。

CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere.

安：這裡頭有些東西 可以拍成好影片，

I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well,

我不知道是什麼，也不曉得結局，

但是一部好片子。

but it's a great movie.

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

馬：那是次非常奇怪的試駕。

EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.

When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck.

當我開著第一輛原型卡車，

It's really weird, because you're driving around

真的很詭異，

因為你開著這輛巨大的卡車， 而你又覺得它那麽輕巧靈敏。

and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck.

CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype?

安：你說什麽？你開過原型車了？

EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot,

馬：是的，我在停車場試車，

and I was like, this is crazy.

當時我覺得這真是瘋狂。

CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.

安：喔！這不是霧件（Vaporware： 指先公布，但可能不會發佈的產品。）

EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck

馬：我就這樣，開著這輛巨無霸

and making these mad maneuvers.

做各式各樣奇怪的駕駛伎倆。

CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture

安：好酷。挺好。

從一張大壞蛋的照片到 不太壞的壞蛋照片，

to a kind of less badass picture.

This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something.

這好像是絕望主婦劇組那房子，

What on earth is going on here?

這到底是怎麽一回事？

EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future

馬：嗯，這描繪未來的樣子，

that I think is how things will evolve.

也就是我想像的未來會如何演進。

You've got an electric car in the driveway.

有輛電動車停在車道上，

If you look in between the electric car and the house,

如果你細看車子和房子中間，

there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house,

在房子邊實際上有三個家用電池，

and then that house roof is a solar roof.

還有太陽能屋頂，

So that's an actual solar glass roof.

是個真正的太陽能玻璃屋頂。

CA: OK.

安：好的。

EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.

馬：我得說，照片裡是「真的」假房子。

That's a real fake house.

是「真的」假房子。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: So these roof tiles,

安：這些屋瓦，

some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --

有些屋瓦

基本上就能產生太陽能。

EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles

馬：對，太陽能玻璃瓦，

where you can adjust the texture and the color

可以調節質地和顔色，

to a very fine-grained level,

在細度上調節。

and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass,

還有類似玻璃的微型百葉窗，

such that when you're looking at the roof from street level

這樣當你站在街上仰望屋頂，

or close to street level,

或者站在接近地平的位置，

all the tiles look the same

所有的瓦片看著都一樣，

whether there is a solar cell behind it or not.

不管後面有沒有太陽能電池。

So you have an even color

顔色會看起來很整齊，

from the ground level.

如果從地面向上看的話。

If you were to look at it from a helicopter,

如果從直升機往下看，

you would be actually able to look through and see

實際上可以看穿，

看到在玻璃瓦下面，

that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not.

有些有太陽能電池，有些沒有。

You can't tell from street level.

但站在街上是無法區分的。

CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun,

安：把它們安置在陽光多的地方，

使得這些屋頂超實惠，不是嗎？

and that makes these roofs super affordable, right?

比起普通屋頂的瓦片， 它其實也沒那麽貴。

They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的。

We're very confident that the cost of the roof

我們對屋頂的成本

plus the cost of electricity --

加電費很有信心──

A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof

陽光玻璃屋頂將比

普通屋頂的造價加上電費便宜。

plus the cost of electricity.

So in other words,

也就是說，

this will be economically a no-brainer,

它的經濟實惠將毫無疑問。

we think it will look great,

我們覺得它看起來會很棒，

and it will last --

而且會持續──

We thought about having the warranty be infinity,

我們想過要終身保固，

but then people thought,

但有人會覺得

well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish,

聼起來像是胡說八道。

but actually this is toughened glass.

但實際上它是強化玻璃，

Well after the house has collapsed

就算房子崩塌也完好無損，

and there's nothing there,

房子沒了，

the glass tiles will still be there.

但玻璃瓦還會在。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

CA: I mean, this is cool.

安：我的天，太酷了。

你幾周後就要推出了，

So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think,

四款不同的屋頂型號供選擇。

with four different roofing types.

EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially,

馬：是的，我們一開始只推出兩款，

and the second two will be introduced early next year.

另外兩款會在明年初推出。

CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?

安：這是什麼樣的雄心規模呢？

How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?

你覺得這樣的屋頂會裝設多少？

EM: I think eventually

馬：我估計最終──

almost all houses will have a solar roof.

幾乎所有的房子 最終都會有太陽能屋頂。

The thing is to consider the time scale here

如果算上時間，

to be probably on the order

可能估計要花上

of 40 or 50 years.

40 到 50 年。

So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years.

通常每 20-25 年要更換屋頂，

But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately.

但不可能立刻把屋頂全數換掉，

But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward

但如果將時間快轉到

to say 15 years from now,

從現在算起的 15 年後，

it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.

不具備太陽能的屋頂將會很不尋常。

CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here

安：是否有人們不這麼做的心理模式，

that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power,

由於換屋頂的高造價 和太陽能的效益？

most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof

實際上大部分屋頂的陽光充足，

pretty much to power all of their needs.

足以供應日常所需的電力；

If you could capture the power,

假使這些電力能被儲存起來，

it could pretty much power all their needs.

那麼供電會綽綽有餘，

You could go off-grid, kind of.

可能無需併入電網，對吧？

EM: It depends on where you are

馬：這還得看你住在哪裡，

and what the house size is relative to the roof area,

住家相對於屋頂的規模大小。

but it's a fair statement to say

但可以說，

that most houses in the US have enough roof area

大多數美國房子的屋頂面積

足以供應該房子日常所需的能耗。

to power all the needs of the house.

CA: So the key to the economics

安：所以一切成本的關鍵點，

of the cars, the Semi, of these houses

對於汽車、半掛、還有這些房子而言，

is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries,

在於鋰電池價格的回落。

which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.

所以你在特斯拉上押了大注。

In many ways, that's almost the core competency.

在很多方面，這幾乎是核心競爭力。

And you've decided

於是你決定

that to really, like, own that competency,

要擁有這核心能力，

you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant

你非得建世界上最大的電池工廠，

to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries,

使世界鋰離子電池的供應倍增，

with this guy. What is this?

靠這個。這是啥？

EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,

馬：對，這就是 Gigafactory，

progress so far on the Gigafactory.

是 Gigafactory 目前為止的進展。

Eventually, you can sort of roughly see

最終你能大致看到

that there's sort of a diamond shape overall,

它的整體外形有點像是個鑽石；

and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond,

等全部完工，它就像是顆大鑽石，

or that's the idea behind it,

那是背後的構想。

and it's aligned on true north.

它正對正北，

It's a small detail.

是個小細節。

CA: And capable of producing, eventually,

安：最終每年將能夠生産

一千億瓦特小時的電池。 （註：一億「度」）

like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.

EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.

馬：一千億瓦特小時。 可能會更多，不過差不多。

CA: And they're actually being produced right now.

安：工廠現正產出電池，對吧？

馬：工廠正在產出電池。 安：來放一下這片子。

EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video.

我想問：它是在速放嗎？

I mean, is that speeded up?

馬：其實它是在慢播。

EM: That's the slowed down version.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: How fast does it actually go?

安：那到底有多快？

EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,

馬：全速運行時

you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light.

如果沒有頻閃燈， 你實際上看不到這些電池。

It's just blur.

會模糊了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future

安：你有一個核心想法 與讓人興奮的未來有關，

is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy.

是我們不再因消耗能源 而感到愧疚的未來。

Help us picture this.

帶我們想像一下。

How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?

需要多少 Gigafactories 才能實現呢？

EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.

馬：粗略來説，幾百個吧。

It's not 10, it's not a thousand.

超過十，但還不到上千。

Most likely a hundred.

最有可能就幾百個。

CA: See, I find this amazing.

安：懂了，我覺得很棒。

You can picture what it would take

你能描繪

解救這大量消耗化石燃料的世界 將會需要些什麼。

to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing.

It's like you're building one,

就像你建個工廠

it costs five billion dollars,

要花 50 億美元，

或許下一個要 50 到 100 億之間。

or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.

Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project.

你能描繪出來，很酷。

And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.

今年你打算宣佈 至少兩個特斯拉的新厰址。

EM: I think we'll announce locations

馬：今年稍後我們將會宣佈

for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year.

2 到 4 個 Gigafactories 新址。

Yeah, probably four.

嗯，可能是 4 家。

CA: Whoa.

安：哇。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

No more teasing from you for here?

不能再透露一些嗎？

Like -- where, continent?

像是──在哪裏？哪個洲?

You can say no.

你可以不回答。

EM: We need to address a global market.

馬：我們需要解決全球市場問題。

CA: OK.

安：好。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

This is cool.

這太酷了。

I think we should talk for --

我想再聊──

Actually, global market.

竟然，全球市場。

I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one.

我得問個政治話題，就一個。

I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this.

我個人不喜歡政治，但我還是得問。

You're on a body now giving advice to a guy --

你現在是某人的委員會成員， 可以建議他──

EM: Who?

馬：誰？

CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change,

安：那個自稱不相信氣候變化的傢伙。

and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that.

很多人認為你不應該涉入。

They'd like you to walk away from that.

他們希望你脫身。

What would you say to them?

你怎麼回應呢？

EM: Well, I think that first of all,

馬：首先，我覺得

I'm just on two advisory councils

我隸屬於兩個諮詢委員會，

where the format consists of going around the room

既定的程序是環顧會議室

and asking people's opinion on things,

詢問大家對事物的看法，

and so there's like a meeting every month or two.

每一、兩個月開一次會。

That's the sum total of my contribution.

我也就做了這麽點事情。

But I think to the degree that there are people in the room

某些程度上，會議室裡有些人

who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change,

贊成為氣候變化做些事情，

or social issues,

或者為社會議題做些事。

I've used the meetings I've had thus far

目前我藉由參與的會議

to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.

發言支持移民和支持氣候變化。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And if I hadn't done that,

如果我沒有那樣做，

that wasn't on the agenda before.

它們之前根本沒被列在議程裡。

So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.

可能什麽都不會發生， 但至少我把話說了。

CA: OK.

安：沒錯。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.

我們來聊聊 SpaceX 和移民火星。

Last time you were here,

上次你在這裡

you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream

講了外人看來 極不可思議的雄心計劃，

to develop rockets that were actually reusable.

要開發可回收的火箭。

And you've only gone and done it.

然後你就去做，還做成了。

馬：是的，花了不少時間。

EM: Finally. It took a long time.

CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?

安：帶我們看看，現在看到的是什麽？

EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters

馬：這是個火箭推進器，

coming back from very high and fast in space.

超快速從超高的外太空返回地面。

So just delivered the upper stage

剛剛把火箭前面那一節送到外太空，

at high velocity.

速度超快。

I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so,

我估計七倍音速左右。

delivery of the upper stage.

送出前一節。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

CA: So that was a sped-up --

安：所以這是加速版。

EM: That was the slowed down version.

馬：它是減速慢播版。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: I thought that was the sped-up version.

安：我還以為是加速版，

But I mean, that's amazing,

那真的很棒。

and several of these failed

失敗了幾次之後 你終於知道怎麽做了。

before you finally figured out how to do it,

but now you've done this, what, five or six times?

至今你成功著陸幾次？五或六次？

EM: We're at eight or nine.

馬：我想是八或九次。

CA: And for the first time,

安：你重飛之前著陸過的火箭

you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.

真的是創舉。

EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster

馬：是的，我們降落火箭推進器，

and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again,

準備好再次升空，又飛了一次。

so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster

這是首次火箭助推器再飛。

where that reflight is relevant.

再飛的意義重大，

So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant

重要的是要認識到

可重用性只有在 快速和完整的情況下才算數。

if it is rapid and complete.

So like an aircraft or a car,

像飛機和汽車的可重用性 快速而完整。

the reusability is rapid and complete.

You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.

無須在航班與航班之間 把飛機送回波音工廠。

CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea

安：是啊，這讓你夢想著

真正雄心勃勃的想法，

of sending many, many, many people to Mars

要把好多好多人送往火星……

in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.

多久？我猜是 10 到 20 年後。

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的。

CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it.

安：於是你設計了 這不尋常的火箭來實現。

Help us understand the scale of this thing.

帶我們了解它的規模。

EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person.

馬：好。你看到一個人，

Yeah, and that's the vehicle.

而那是火箭載具。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: So if that was a skyscraper,

安：如果那是座摩天大樓，

that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?

就像是 40 層的大樓，對嗎？

EM: Probably a little more, yeah.

馬：有可能再多幾層。

The thrust level of this is really --

火箭推力可真是──

This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.

推力約是農神 5 號運載火箭的四倍。

CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.

安：之前人類造過的 最大火箭的四倍？

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

馬：沒錯。

CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.

安：就那樣。 馬：沒錯。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,

馬：跟 747 飛機比，

一架 747 僅有 25 萬磅助推力，

so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,

每一千萬磅的助推力

there's 40 747s.

需要 40 架 747。

So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.

它的推力應該相當於 120 架的 747，

如果引擎全開的話。

CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity,

安：即使設計來脫離 地球重力的這台機器──

I think you told me last time

記得你上次跟我說過，

this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747,

它還能裝下滿載的 747，

people, cargo, everything,

人員、物資，每樣東西，

into orbit.

送上軌道。

EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,

馬：沒錯。它能承載 一架加滿油的 747 飛機，

maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 --

滿員、滿貨的 747──

this can take it as cargo.

它能把 747 當成貨物。

CA: So based on this,

安：基於此，

you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System

最近你介紹了星際運輸系統

which is visualized this way.

看起來這樣。

This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time?

你描繪的是什麼時候的場景？ 30 年後？ 20 年後？

People walking into this rocket.

人們進入火箭。

EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame.

馬：我希望是 8 到 10 年後。

Aspirationally, that's our target.

我滿心期望，這是我們的目標。

Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --

我們內部的目標更積極， 不過我覺得……

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: OK.

安：好吧。

EM: While vehicle seems quite large

馬：這飛行器看起來好像很大，

and is large by comparison with other rockets,

跟其他火箭比起來，是大了點。

I think the future spacecraft

但我覺得跟未來的航空器比起來，

will make this look like a rowboat.

它就像是艘小艇。

The future spaceships will be truly enormous.

未來的太空船會是巨無霸。

CA: Why, Elon?

安：為什麼？伊隆。

Why do we need to build a city on Mars

為什麽我們得在火星上造城？

with a million people on it in your lifetime,

為什麼在你的有生之年 要送上百萬人去火星？

which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do?

我彷彿記得你說過那是你愛做的事。

EM: I think it's important to have

馬：我覺得這很重要：

a future that is inspiring and appealing.

有個令人欣然嚮往、 鼓舞人心的未來。

I just think there have to be reasons

人活著得有理由

that you get up in the morning and you want to live.

讓你早上起床，想要活下去。

Like, why do you want to live?

為什麽要活下去？

What's the point? What inspires you?

有什麼意思？ 什麼激勵了你？

What do you love about the future?

你愛未來的什麼？

And if we're not out there,

如果我們不在外太空，

if the future does not include being out there among the stars

如果未來不包括身在星際間，

and being a multiplanet species,

不身為多個星球的物種，

I find that it's incredibly depressing

我會無比沮喪，

if that's not the future that we're going to have.

如果那不是我們的未來的話。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

CA: People want to position this as an either or,

安：人們想定位為非此即彼，

that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now

畢竟地球上有那麼多危急之事，

from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue.

從氣候問題到貧窮，選問題來解決。

And this feels like a distraction.

這看起來像是分心，

You shouldn't be thinking about this.

你不該思考這，

You should be solving what's here and now.

而應該去解決眼前和當下的問題。

And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that

公平地說，你在 永續能源方面已做了些。

with your work on sustainable energy.

But why not just do that?

為什麽不專注於那個呢？

EM: I think there's --

馬：我想這──

I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities.

我從概率的角度來看待未來。

It's like a branching stream of probabilities,

這就像概率流的分支，

and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities

我們採取的一些行動 會影響這些概率，

or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing.

會加速一件或減緩另一件。

I may introduce something new to the probability stream.

我可能給概率流加了新的東西。

Sustainable energy will happen no matter what.

不管怎樣，永續能源是會實現的。

If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed,

如果沒有特斯拉， 如果特斯拉不存在，

it would have to happen out of necessity.

它也必然發生。

It's tautological.

它是反覆循環的。

If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy.

假如你沒有永續能源， 也就是你的能源不永續，

Eventually you will run out,

你的能源終將消耗殆盡。

and the laws of economics will drive civilization

經濟的規律將驅動文明

towards sustainable energy,

走向永續能源。

inevitably.

這是必然。

The fundamental value of a company like Tesla

像特斯拉這樣的公司的基本價值

is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy,

就是加快永續能源的出現，

faster than it would otherwise occur.

比原本的快。

So when I think, like,

每當我思考

what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla,

像特斯拉這樣的公司的 基本價值是什麼時，

I would say, hopefully,

我會希望

if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade,

如果它能加快十年，可能多於十年，

that would be quite a good thing to occur.

這將是極好的事情。

That's what I consider to be

我認為這就是

the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.

特斯拉的基本理想抱負。

Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization.

至於成為多行星的物種 和有能力探索太空文明，

This is not inevitable.

並不是必然的。

It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable.

認知這不是必然的，相當重要。

The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable,

我認為使用永續能源的未來 基本上是不可避免的，

but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable.

但有能力探索太空的文明絕非必然。

If you look at the progress in space,

回顧太空進展，

in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon.

1969 年，我們能把人類送上月球。

1969.

是 1969 年啊。

Then we had the Space Shuttle.

後來有了太空梭，

The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit.

太空梭只能把人送到近地軌道。

Then the Space Shuttle retired,

接著太空梭退了下來，

and the United States could take no one to orbit.

美國再也沒能送人上軌道。

So that's the trend.

那就是趨勢，

The trend is like down to nothing.

像是化為烏有的趨勢。

People are mistaken when they think

人們誤以為技術會自動提升。

that technology just automatically improves.

It does not automatically improve.

但技術不會自動提升，

It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better,

只有許多人戮力改善才使它變好，

and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually.

而且我認為

事實上技術本身會退化。

You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt,

我們來看看古埃及文明，

and they were able to make the pyramids,

從前他們能建金字塔，

and they forgot how to do that.

但忘了怎麽建。

And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts.

還有古羅馬人造了 令人難以置信的水渠；

They forgot how to do it.

他們也不記得怎麽造。

CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you

安：伊隆，聼你說起來，似乎……

and looking at the different things you've done,

看著你所做的不同的事情，

你對這一切都有獨特的雙重動機，

that you've got this unique double motivation on everything

that I find so interesting.

我覺得很有意思。

One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good.

一方面是為了全人類的長遠利益，

The other is the desire to do something exciting.

另一方面是渴望 做一些令人興奮的事情。

And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other.

彷彿你需要一樣來驅動另一樣。

With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy,

用特斯拉，因你要有永續能源，

so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it.

所以造出這麽勁爆的車子 來實現你的目標。

Solar energy, we need to get there,

而為要實現太陽能，

so we need to make these beautiful roofs.

於是需要這些漂亮的屋頂。

We haven't even spoken about your newest thing,

我們還沒講到你最新的玩意，

which we don't have time to do,

由於時間不夠的關係。

but you want to save humanity from bad AI,

但你想把人類從不好的 人工智慧中解救出來。

and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface

所以你打算造出超炫酷的腦機介面

讓人類擁有無限的記憶、 心靈感應等等。

to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth.

And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is,

還有移民火星，就像你所說的，

yeah, we need to save humanity

是的，我們要拯救人類。

and have a backup plan,

得有個備選計劃。

but also we need to inspire humanity,

當然還要激勵人性，

and this is a way to inspire.

這也算是一種激勵的方式。

EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration

馬：我想美和靈感的價值

is very much underrated,

被嚴重低估了，

no question.

毫無疑問。

But I want to be clear.

但我想釐清一點：

I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.

我可不想做任何人的救星。

That is not the --

那不是──

I'm just trying to think about the future

我只想展望未來

and not be sad.

而不傷感。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

CA: Beautiful statement.

安：說的真好。

I think everyone here would agree

我想在場所有人都同意

that it is not --

那不──

None of this is going to happen inevitably.

這些都不是必然會發生的。

The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff,

事實上，在你的心目中的夢想，

you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream,

夢想著別人想都不敢想的夢想，

or no one else would be capable of dreaming

或者說沒人有能力想到的夢想，

at the level of complexity that you do.

達到如你這般複雜的程度。

The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing.

伊隆 • 馬斯克， 你那麼做實在了不起。

Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.

感謝你幫助我們所有人夢想得更大。

EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?

馬：如果哪天我真要瘋了， 你會告訴我，對吧？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic.

安：謝謝伊隆 • 馬斯克，太棒了。

That was really fantastic.

這真是太棒了。

(Applause)

（掌聲）