Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring | TED

翻译人员: Wei Wu 校对人员: Lipeng Chen

Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.

Chris Anderson: 伊隆，欢迎回到TED来。

It's great to have you here.

很高兴你能来。

Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.

伊隆： 感谢邀请。

CA: So, in the next half hour or so,

CA：嗯，在接下来的半个小时里，

we're going to spend some time

我们会花点时间

exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like,

来探索一下你所构想的 激动人心的未来，

which I guess makes the first question a little ironic:

这可能会让我的第一个问题 听起来有点讽刺：

Why are you boring?

为什么你觉得无聊？

EM: Yeah.

EM: 是呀。

I ask myself that frequently.

我经常这么问自己。

We're trying to dig a hole under LA,

我们打算挖一条隧道穿过洛杉矶，

and this is to create the beginning

这是我们计划的开始，

of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels

我们有希望打造一个 地下三维管道

to alleviate congestion.

来缓解交通阻塞问题。

So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic.

目前来看，最让人精神疲惫的 事情之一就是堵车。

It affects people in every part of the world.

这影响世界上每个角落的人。

It takes away so much of your life.

它从你生命中拿走了太多时间。

It's horrible.

太可怕了。

It's particularly horrible in LA.

在洛杉矶尤其可怕。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: I think you've brought with you

CA: 我想你带来了

the first visualization that's been shown of this.

这项工程演示视频的 首次公开展示。

Can I show this?

我能播放么？

EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time --

EM: 可以，当然可以。 这是第一次——

Just to show what we're talking about.

就展示下我们正在聊的。

So a couple of key things that are important

有几个关键的点

in having a 3D tunnel network.

对于构建3D隧道特别重要。

First of all, you have to be able

首先，你必须能够

to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel

整合隧道的入口和出口

seamlessly into the fabric of the city.

无缝的整合到城市交通里。

So by having an elevator,

通过利用电梯，

sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator,

一个给汽车用的滑板， 滑板放在电梯里，

you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network

我们就可以将隧道的入口 和出口跟公路对接起来

just by using two parking spaces.

代价仅仅是两个停车位的面积。

And then the car gets on a skate.

然后汽车就在滑板上，

There's no speed limit here,

隧道里没有限速，

so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.

所以我们设计时速是 每小时200公里。

CA: How much?

CA：多少？

EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour.

EM：每小时200公里， 也就是每小时130英里。

So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX

所以打个比方，如果你从 Westwood到洛杉矶机场

in six minutes -- five, six minutes.

只需要五到六分钟。

(Applause)

（掌声）

CA: So possibly, initially done,

CA：所以有可能，完工之后，

it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.

有点类似收费高速路的模式。

EM: Yeah.

EM：对的。

CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic

CA：我猜这将也会缓解

from the surface streets as well.

地面交通的压力。

EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video,

EM：嗯，我不知道大家是否 注意到视频中的一个细节，

but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have.

实际上我们可以继续增加 隧道的层数。

You can go much further deep than you can go up.

往下挖比往上开拓要容易得多。

The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall,

实际上最深的矿井比最高的 摩天大楼要长多了，

so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion

所以我们可以利用这种 立体隧道网

with a 3D tunnel network.

解决任意级别的交通拥堵问题。

This is a very important point.

这是个非常重要的点。

So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels,

所以这种隧道的一个争论点是 如果我们加了一层隧道，

that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up,

那么可以轻微缓解交通拥堵， 但是很快拥堵又起来了，

and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion.

这个时候大家又回到原点， 又开始拥堵。

But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels,

但是现在我们可以增加 任意数量的隧道，

any number of levels.

没有层数限制。

CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig,

CA：但是人们——传统上看到的是， 隧道挖起来特别烧钱，

and that would block this idea.

这会导致这个想法搁浅。

EM: Yeah.

EM：对的。

Well, they're right.

嗯，他们是对的。

To give you an example, the LA subway extension,

我来举一个例子， 洛杉矶地铁线扩建，

which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension

大概——我想大概是扩建了 2.5英里那么长

that was just completed for two billion dollars.

工程花费达到了20亿美元。

So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA.

所以在洛杉矶地区建立隧道 成本大概10亿一英里。

And this is not the highest utility subway in the world.

而且这还不是世界上最昂贵的 通勤地铁线路。

So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally.

所以是的，通常情况下 挖隧道很难。

I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement

我想我们必须能够至少 将隧道的建设成本

in the cost per mile of tunneling.

降低十倍以上才行。

CA: And how could you achieve that?

CA：那么你怎么做到呢？

EM: Actually, if you just do two things,

EM：实际上，如果你做两件事情，

you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement,

就已经可以得到接近 一个数量级的改进，

and I think you can go beyond that.

而且我觉得可以做到更多。

So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter

第一件事是减少隧道的直径

by a factor of two or more.

缩减到正常的二分之一。

So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations

法律规定一条隧道的宽度

has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter

至少26英尺， 可能是28英尺

to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles

来避免车辆剐蹭到隧道， 允许救护车通过

and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars.

同时为内燃机车的发动机 留足充分的通风机制。

But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting,

但是如果你将直径缩减到 我们目前尝试的那样，

which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through,

只有12英尺，这个宽度已经 足够一个汽车滑板通过，

you drop the diameter by a factor of two

这样你就将直径减少了两倍

and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four,

这样纵切面就减少了四倍，

and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.

而隧道建设成本跟隧道的 纵切面积有直接关系。

So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.

所以这一条就缩减了 大概半个数量级的成本。

Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop,

目前我们在挖隧道的流程是， 挖掘机挖一段时间就停下来，

and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements

等着隧道的阻隔墙加固完成，

for the tunnel wall.

再继续。

So if you design the machine instead

所以如果你能够重新设计机器，

to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing,

能够同步进行挖掘和加固，

that will give you a factor of two improvement.

那么能得到两倍的改进。

Combine that and that's a factor of eight.

加起来就是8倍的改进了。

Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits,

而且这些机器还远远没有 达到热力学定律的极限，

so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially.

所以你可以加大机器的马力。

I think you can get at least a factor of two,

我觉得至少能够再提高一倍。

maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that.

或许能够在之前的基础上 再提高四五倍。

So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps

所以我觉得现在已经有了 比较明确的步骤，

to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement

在缩减单位长度成本上能够做到

in the cost per mile,

一个数量级的改进，

and our target actually is --

而我们的目标实际上是——

we've got a pet snail called Gary,

我们做了一个玩具蜗牛叫Gary，

this is from Gary the snail from "South Park,"

名字来自《南方公园》，

I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."

我是说，抱歉，来自《海绵宝宝》。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So Gary is capable of --

现在Gary能够做到——

currently he's capable of going 14 times faster

现在它能够做到比现在 慢吞吞的隧道机器

than a tunnel-boring machine.

快14倍以上。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: You want to beat Gary.

CA：你希望超过Gary。

EM: We want to beat Gary.

EM：“我们”想要超过Gary。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

He's not a patient little fellow,

他不是一个安静的小随从，

and that will be victory.

会迎来胜利的。

Victory is beating the snail.

胜利就是打败这个蜗牛。

CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities,

CA：但是很多人梦想着， 在构想未来城市的时候，

they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.

他们想的实际上是飞行汽车， 无人机，等等。

You go aboveground.

人们在地面上活动。

Why isn't that a better solution?

为什么那不是更好的方法？

You save all that tunneling cost.

这样就完全没有挖隧道的开销了。

EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.

EM：对。我很喜欢会飞的东西。

Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly.

很显然的，我研究火箭， 我喜欢会飞的东西。

This is not some inherent bias against flying things,

虽然我没有任何对于 飞行物的偏见，

but there is a challenge with flying cars

但是飞行汽车这个概念有个问题

in that they'll be quite noisy,

就是一定会很吵，

the wind force generated will be very high.

产生的风也会非常大。

Let's just say that if something's flying over your head,

就简单想象一下如果有什么东西 飞过你的头顶，

a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place,

很多飞行汽车 从你头上穿过，

that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.

这可不是能让你减少焦虑的场面。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today."

你肯定不会想， “嗯，我今天感觉不错。”

You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap,

你会想，“这些车轮胎都拧紧了么”

or is it going to come off and guillotine me?"

“会不会掉下来砸烂我的头？”

Things like that.

类似这样。

CA: So you've got this vision

CA：所以你对未来的构想

of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath.

就是城市地下布满这样的 立体交通隧道。

Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?

这跟Hyperloop有关联么？

Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea

你是不是可以将隧道用在 几年前你公开出来的

you released a few years ago.

Hyperloop的想法上。

EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around

EM：对，我们在Hyperloop 这件事情上

with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.

已经游手好闲了一段时间。

We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX,

我们在SpaceX旁边建立了 一个Hyperloop实验轨道

just for a student competition,

用来做学生竞赛用，

to encourage innovative ideas in transport.

用来激励在交通上的创新想法。

And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world

实际上，我们最后做出来了 世界上最大的真空管道

after the Large Hadron Collider,

仅次于LHC对撞机，

by volume.

从规模上说。

So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing,

这件事情特别有意思， 不过只算是业余爱好，

and then we think we might --

后来我们想或许——

so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods,

所以我们建造了一个推进器 来推进学生做的胶囊仓，

but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go

而我们打算试试看推进器 如果没有载重

if it's not pushing something.

自己能够推进多快。

So we're cautiously optimistic

我们谨慎乐观的认为

we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train

我们将会比目前世界上 最快的子弹头列车更快，

even in a .8-mile stretch.

即使在0.8英里的长度上。

CA: Whoa. Good brakes.

CA：哇，刹车不错嘛。

EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.

EM：对，我是说，它——对。

It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.

它没有直接撞成碎片，但是 速度已经非常快了。

CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel

CA：但是你已经可以构想 以后，Hyperloop在隧道里，

running quite long distances.

做长距离运输。

EM: Exactly.

EM：千真万确。

And looking at tunneling technology,

看看现在的隧道构造技术，

it turns out that in order to make a tunnel,

事实上为了挖一条隧道，

you have to --

你必须——

In order to seal against the water table,

为了能够隔绝地下水渗透，

you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good

你通常需要将隧道壁 设计足够硬，

to about five or six atmospheres.

能够承受五到六个大气压。

So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,

而真空状态只需要承受一个大气压，

or near-vacuum.

或者近似真空。

So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically,

所以实际上，基本上是自然而然地，

if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table,

如果你构造一条隧道足够 承受地下水的压力，

it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.

保持真空就变成自然而然的事情。

CA: Huh.

CA：呃。

EM: So, yeah.

EM：所以，对。

CA: And so you could actually picture,

CA：所以你实际上可以构想，

what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?

在你构想的未来里，Hyperloop隧道 可以长到什么规模？

EM: I think there's no real length limit.

EM：我觉得没有任何长度的限制。

You could dig as much as you want.

你可以想要挖多远就挖多远。

I think if you were to do something

我觉得如果你想要造Hyperloop，

like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,

比如从华盛顿到纽约，

I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way

我觉得你可能更愿意全程都 从地下穿过

because it's a high-density area.

因为地面建筑太密集了。

You're going under a lot of buildings and houses,

你会从地下穿过很多大楼和房屋，

and if you go deep enough,

如果你挖的足够深，

you cannot detect the tunnel.

在地表是探测不到隧道的。

Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying

有时候人们会想，嗯，那可够恼人的

to have a tunnel dug under my house.

如果在我房子下面挖隧道的话

Like, if that tunnel is dug

比如，如果一条隧道

more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house,

是在你家地下三到四个隧道直径的 深度挖的话，

you will not be able to detect it being dug at all.

你就根本探测不出来了。

In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug,

实际上如果你能够探测到，

whatever device you are using,

不管你用什么设备，

you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military,

你都可以用这个设备从以色列 军方那里赚到一大笔钱，

who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas,

他们一直在尝试探测哈马斯组织 挖的隧道，

and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels.

美国海关和边防也都希望 探测毒贩的隧道。

So the reality is

所以实际上，

that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations,

地球吸收震动的能力 非常的好，

and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level,

一旦隧道建设达到一定深度，

it is undetectable.

就无法探测到了。

Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument,

或许你拿一个非常灵敏的地震探测仪，

you might be able to detect it.

可以有机会探测到。

CA: So you've started a new company to do this

CA：所以你开了一家新公司做这个，

called The Boring Company.

公司叫“博英（无聊的）公司”。

Very nice. Very funny.

非常棒，挺会玩。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

EM: What's funny about that?

EM：有什么好笑的？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: How much of your time is this?

CA：这个大概花费你多少时间？

EM: It's maybe ...

EM：大概有……

two or three percent.

百分之二三的样子。

CA: You've called it a hobby.

CA：你带来了一个业余爱好。

This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.

这就是Elon Musk的业余爱好的样子。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

EM: I mean, it really is, like --

EM：我是说，实际上是——

This is basically interns and people doing it part time.

基本上是实习生和一些兼职职工在做。

We bought some second-hand machinery.

我们买了一些二手设备。

It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --

这个一开始也差不多是随便玩玩， 但是没想到进度喜人，所以——

CA: So an even bigger part of your time

CA：所以你的时间中大部分

is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla.

投入到了电动汽车，也就是特斯拉上。

Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project

隧道项目的动机中有没有

the realization that actually,

服务于特斯拉的成分，

in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving,

未来世界中汽车都是电动， 都是自动驾驶的，

there may end up being more cars on the roads

最终可能是路面上有更多汽车

on any given hour than there are now?

比现在的任何时刻都要多？

EM: Yeah, exactly.

EM：对，完全正确。

A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous,

很多人认为当汽车开始自动驾驶，

they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion.

他们能跑得更快，并缓解交通压力。

And to some degree that will be true,

在某种程度上是真的，

but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car

但是一旦我们开始共享汽车， 叫个计程车就会很便宜

and you can go point to point,

于是你到哪儿都可以叫车，

the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.

叫得起出租车要比等公交好得多。

Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.

那时候，叫车估计比公交车还便宜。

So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy,

所以路面上汽车等到共享自动驾驶 汽车的时候就会更多，

and actually traffic will get far worse.

那个时候交通会更拥挤。

CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world

CA：你创办特斯拉的时候希望向世界证明

that electrification was the future of cars,

电动汽车是汽车行业的未来，

and a few years ago, people were laughing at you.

几年前，人们还嘲笑你。

Now, not so much.

现在，没有那么多人了。

EM: OK.

EM：好。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I don't know. I don't know.

我不知道，我不知道。

CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer

CA：但是现在差不多每个汽车厂商

has announced serious electrification plans

都认真地宣布了短期或中期的

for the short- to medium-term future?

电动汽车计划？

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

EM：对，对。

I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program.

我想基本每一个汽车厂商都有电动车计划了。

They vary in seriousness.

但是对待的认真程度不同。

Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric,

有一些非常坚定，要全面电动化，

and some are just dabbling in it.

有一些仅仅是试水看看。

And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells,

还有一些，挺有意思的还坚持化石燃料，

but I think that won't last much longer.

但是我觉得他们长久不了了。

CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,

CA：但是Elon，现在不就已经是，

where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it."

你可以宣布胜利，说，“我们做到了。”

Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?

让世界都开始转向汽车电动化， 你可以将重心转入其它行业了？

EM: Yeah.

EM：对。

I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine,

我打算在可以预见的未来 继续主导特斯拉的发展，

and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming.

也有很多激动人心的事情我们在做。

Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.

很显然，特斯拉Model 3就要发布了。

We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.

我们也要宣布特斯拉半挂卡车。

CA: OK, we're going to come to this.

CA：好的，我们就要聊到这个了。

So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish.

所以Model 3计划时在七月左右发布。

EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July.

EM：是，7月份发布新东西感觉很好。

CA: Wow.

CA：哇哦。

One of the things that people are so excited about

人们非常兴奋的一件事情

is the fact that it's got autopilot.

是它将能够自动驾驶。

And you put out this video a while back

你在不久之前放出来这段视频

showing what that technology would look like.

展示了这项技术看起来什么样子。

EM: Yeah.

EM：对的。

CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now.

CA：现在Model S已经有了自动驾驶。

What are we seeing here?

这段视频我们看出来什么？

EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS.

EM：对的，这段视频里只用了GPS和可见光摄像头。

So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here.

注意这里并没有使用激光雷达。

This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses.

这里仅仅是用了被动光学传感器， 跟我们人类使用的差不多。

The whole road system is meant to be navigated

整个道路系统的导航

with passive optical, or cameras,

仅仅使用被动光学，也就是摄像头

and so once you solve cameras

所以当你能够（仅仅）用摄像头

or vision,

或者视觉，

then autonomy is solved.

那么自动驾驶的问题就解决了。

If you don't solve vision, it's not solved.

如果你没有解决视觉问题， 问题就没有解决。

So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net

这也是为什么我们非常重视 训练视觉神经网络，

that's very effective for road conditions.

这东西在公路环境下很有效。

CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route.

CA：对的。很多人都打算使用激光雷达模块。

You want cameras plus radar is most of it.

你希望用摄像头和雷达搞定。

EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras.

EM：使用摄像头就足够让你变成超人了。

Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would,

例如你可能比人类的反应快十倍以上，

just cameras.

仅使用摄像头。

CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them.

CA：所以新款特斯拉上有八个摄像头。

They can't yet do what that showed.

它们还不能做刚才展示的那样。

When will they be able to?

什么时候可以？

EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country

EM：我想我们还在按预定计划推进 到今年年底的时候

from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.

能够完全自主的从洛杉矶开到纽约。

CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying,

CA：OK，所以到了今年底，你是说

someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel,

人们只要坐进特斯拉 不需要碰方向盘，

tap in "New York," off it goes.

输入“纽约”，车就开起来了。

EM: Yeah.

EM：对的。

CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.

CA：不再需要摸方向盘——2017年底。

EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year,

EM：对，基本上，11月份或者12月份，

we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California

我们应该能够完全地 从加州某个停车场，

to a parking lot in New York,

开到纽约的某个停车场，

no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.

全程不需要碰方向盘。

(Applause)

（掌声）

CA: Amazing.

CA：厉害了。

But part of that is possible

但是这里成功的前提之一

because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads.

是因为你已经有了一个特斯拉车队 在路上到处行驶。

You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.

你已经积累了海量的公路数据。

EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting

EM：但是这里好玩的事情是

is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route

我实际上非常自信 即使道路临时改了，

even if you change the route dynamically.

我们也能够正常行驶到目的地。

So, it's fairly easy --

所以，相对来说容易的是——

If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing,

如果你说我在特定的道路上有 很好的表现，这是一回事，

but it should be able to go, really be very good,

当然这样它能够做到， 但是更好的是，

certainly once you enter a highway,

当你输入一条高速路，

to go anywhere on the highway system

能够去一个国家的

in a given country.

任何一条高速路。

So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York.

所以这并不是只能从洛杉矶到纽约。

We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida,

我们可以改成从西雅图到弗罗里达，

that day, in real time.

那天，实时地调整。

So you were going from LA to New York.

所以你假设从洛杉矶到纽约。

Now go from LA to Toronto.

现在从洛杉矶到多伦多。

CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second,

CA：现在先不管监管的问题，

in terms of the technology alone,

仅仅考虑技术本身，

the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars

大概什么时候，我们能够买一辆你的车

and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep

并且真的双手离开方向盘睡一觉

and wake up and find that they've arrived,

醒来之后就到了目的地，

how far away is that, to do that safely?

要能够安全的实现这点还需要多久？

EM: I think that's about two years.

EM：我想大概两年时间。

So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work

这个问题的点不在于 你能够以

say 99.9 percent of the time,

99.9%的概率不出错，

because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times,

因为，如果一辆汽车一千次出行 会出一次车祸，

then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep.

那么你可能还是不会睡的舒服。

You shouldn't be, certainly.

你不会的，当然啦。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It's never going to be perfect.

这个永远都不是完美的。

No system is going to be perfect,

没有系统能做到完美，

but if you say it's perhaps --

但是如果你说它可能——

the car is unlikely to crash

这辆车在一百个人那里

in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes,

在一千个人那里 都不会出车祸

then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives,

那么人们可能会想，哇哦， 如果我有一千条命，

I would still most likely never experience a crash,

我还是基本上不会遇到车祸，

then that's probably OK.

那么可能就是OK的。

CA: To sleep.

CA：关于睡觉。

I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually

我猜测你的一大担心 是人们可能实际上

get seduced too early to think that this is safe,

过早的觉得这项技术是安全的，

and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.

然后一些可怕的事故可能会发生， 将人们的预期拉回来。

EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash,

EM：嗯，实际上我觉得自动驾驶系统 可能至少能够减轻车祸，

except in rare circumstances.

除非在极罕见的情况下。

The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety

谈及汽车安全需要注意的一点

is this is probabilistic.

是车祸是有随机性的。

I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car,

我是说，有这样的可能性， 人类驾驶员坐在车里，

that they will have an accident that is their fault.

他们也有可能发生车祸， 那是驾驶员的失误。

It's never zero.

概率不可能是零。

So really the key threshold for autonomy

所以关键的一个门槛实际上是

is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person

自动驾驶到底需要比 人类驾驶员好多少时，

before you can rely on it?

你才会信任它？

CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving,

CA：但是一旦这种真正意义上的 无人驾驶开始实施，

the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive,

对于整个行业的冲击是巨大的，

because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car,

因为在那时你可以跟 买得起车的人说，

drops you off at work, and then you let it go

自己坐车上班之后， 让车辆自己去，

and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people,

提供类似优步叫车的服务 给其他人提供服务，

earn you money,

车主赚钱，

maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car,

甚至可能足够你支付 买车的分期贷款，

so you can kind of get a car for free.

所以你可能不花钱就能买辆车。

Is that really likely?

这有可能发生么？

EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen.

ME：对的，这是绝对会发生的事情。

So there will be a shared autonomy fleet

所以将来会有一个自动共享车队

where you buy your car

你买一辆车，

and you can choose to use that car exclusively,

你可以选择自己独享，

you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family,

你可以选择跟家庭和朋友一起使用，

only by other drivers who are rated five star,

或者给评分五颗星的司机，

you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times.

你可以在某些时间共享， 某些事件独占。

That's 100 percent what will occur.

这百分百会发生。

It's just a question of when.

只是时间问题。

CA: Wow.

CA：哇哦。

So you mentioned the Semi

你刚才提到了半挂卡车

and I think you're planning to announce this in September,

我想你可能9月份要发布，

but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today?

但是我很好奇，有没有 今天可以透露的？

EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.

EM：我可以给你看一张海报风格的照片。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It's alive.

这是真的。

CA: OK.

CA：好吧。

EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious

EM：这绝对是我们希望 关于自动驾驶特性，

about the autonomy features.

保持谨慎的一种情形。

Yeah.

耶。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: We can't see that much of it,

CA：我们看不到太多细节，

but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck.

但是这个看起来并不像是那种 小巧友善的零家卡车。

It looks kind of badass.

看起来很霸道。

What sort of semi is this?

这是个什么类型的卡车？

EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck.

EM：这是一个重型长途半挂卡车。

So it's the highest weight capability

它的载重是最大的

and with long range.

并且用于长途。

So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads.

所以基本上这是用来减轻 长途重型卡车的负载的。

And this is something which people do not today think is possible.

这是今天的人们觉得不太可能的事情。

They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range,

他们认为这个卡车没有足够动力， 也跑不了那么远，

and then with the Tesla Semi

于是通过特斯拉半挂卡车，

we want to show that no, an electric truck

我们希望证明，一辆电动卡车

actually can out-torque any diesel semi.

实际上能够驱动任何柴油动力卡车。

And if you had a tug-of-war competition,

而且如果我们来一场拔河比赛，

the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.

特斯拉电动半挂能够把 柴油动力车拽上坡。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless.

CA：这太酷了。简单说，还不是无人驾驶。

These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.

这些是需要卡车司机驾驶的卡车。

EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this

EM：是的。真正好玩的地方在于

is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor,

电动引擎的的转矩扭力曲线是平坦的，

whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car,

而柴油动力或者任何内燃机车引擎，

you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill.

你看到的转矩扭力曲线都是山峰状的。

So this will be a very spry truck.

所以这车动力澎湃。

You can drive this around like a sports car.

驾驶这车的就像驾驶运动型轿车。

There's no gears. It's, like, single speed.

没有齿轮。它就像是单一速度。

CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere.

CA：有一部很不错的电影在这里拍摄。

I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well,

我不知道这是什么，不知道结局如何，

but it's a great movie.

不过这是个好电影。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.

EM：试驾的感觉非常的奇怪。

When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck.

当我第一次驾驶这样卡车的原型车时。

It's really weird, because you're driving around

真的很古怪，因为你开来开去

and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck.

你感觉非常灵活， 你又是坐在这种大卡车里。

CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype?

CA：等等，你已经开过了？

EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot,

EM：对，我在一个停车场开了下，

and I was like, this is crazy.

我当时感觉，太疯狂了。

CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.

CA：哇哦，这不是幻想。

EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck

EM：就像这样，驾驶这个庞然大物，

and making these mad maneuvers.

机动性又让人觉得疯狂。

CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture

CA：太酷了。好，从一张很霸道的图片，

to a kind of less badass picture.

到这张不那么霸道的照片。

This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something.

这是从《绝望的主妇》剧照里抠出来的房子。

What on earth is going on here?

这到底要说明什么？

EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future

EM：嗯，这张图片展示了未来，

that I think is how things will evolve.

我觉得事情会如何演化。

You've got an electric car in the driveway.

你在路上看到一辆电动汽车。

If you look in between the electric car and the house,

如果你留心车和房屋之间，

there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house,

实际上在房屋的周围有三面Powerwall，

and then that house roof is a solar roof.

同时房屋的屋顶是太阳能屋顶。

So that's an actual solar glass roof.

所以那实际上是一个太阳能玻璃屋顶。

CA: OK.

CA：OK。

EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.

EM：这张图片是真的 —— 嗯，公认的，真的样板房。

That's a real fake house.

这是个真的样板房。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: So these roof tiles,

CA：所以这些屋顶的瓦片，

some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --

其中有一些有能力进行太阳能发电 ——

EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles

EM：对的。太阳能玻璃瓦片

where you can adjust the texture and the color

你可以调整纹理和颜色，

to a very fine-grained level,

可以在很精细的粒度上调整，

and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass,

而且这些玻璃上有种类似 百叶窗的微型结构，

such that when you're looking at the roof from street level

所以当你从街道那么远的距离 看这个屋顶

or close to street level,

或者靠近马路的位置，

all the tiles look the same

所有的瓦片看起来都一样了，

whether there is a solar cell behind it or not.

无法区分里面是不是有太阳能板。

So you have an even color

所以从地面上看，

from the ground level.

你看到的是均匀的色彩。

If you were to look at it from a helicopter,

如果你坐在直升机上往下看，

you would be actually able to look through and see

你就能穿透玻璃看到后面

that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not.

有一些玻璃后面有太阳能电池板， 有一些没有。

You can't tell from street level.

从街道上无法看出来。

CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun,

CA：你把它们放在阳光尽可能 多照射到的地方，

and that makes these roofs super affordable, right?

是的这些屋顶更容易负担得起，对么？

They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.

这相对于完全用太阳能电池板负载屋顶 要经济得多。

EM: Yeah.

EM：对。

We're very confident that the cost of the roof

我们很有自信，屋顶的成本

plus the cost of electricity --

加上电力节约的成本 ——

A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof

一个太阳能玻璃屋顶的成本 将会比一个普通屋顶

plus the cost of electricity.

加上电力成本来的低。

So in other words,

所以换句话说，

this will be economically a no-brainer,

这将是在经济上的必然选择，

we think it will look great,

我们觉得看起来很棒，

and it will last --

而且它可以持续 ——

We thought about having the warranty be infinity,

我们有考虑过无限期质保，

but then people thought,

但是人们会想，

well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish,

嗯，这可能听起来像是胡说八道，

but actually this is toughened glass.

但是实际上这些都是钢化玻璃。

Well after the house has collapsed

甚至房屋都倒塌了

and there's nothing there,

成了一片废墟，

the glass tiles will still be there.

这些玻璃瓦片还会完好无损的。

(Applause)

（掌声）

CA: I mean, this is cool.

CA：我觉得这很酷。

So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think,

所以我想你可能会在几周内 开始推广，

with four different roofing types.

共有四种不同的屋顶样式。

EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially,

EM：对，我们开始的时候推广两种， 一开始有两种，

and the second two will be introduced early next year.

另外两种会在明年初开始。

CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?

CA：那么在规模上你有多大的野心？

How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?

你觉得大概有多少屋顶会被 替换成这种屋顶？

EM: I think eventually

EM：我觉得最终的话

almost all houses will have a solar roof.

基本上所有的屋子都会有太阳能屋顶。

The thing is to consider the time scale here

问题是需要考虑大概需要多久

to be probably on the order

我觉得大概是需要

of 40 or 50 years.

40到50年的样子。

So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years.

所以一般而言，屋顶20-25年换一次。

But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately.

但是你不会一开始就替换所有的屋顶。

But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward

但是最终，如果你快速地从现在

to say 15 years from now,

推广到15年之后，

it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.

那时候没有太阳能的屋顶将会是很少见的。

CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here

CA：这里会不会因为人们的思维模式 还没有到这个程度，

that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power,

并不是因为成本的变化， 太阳能的经济效应，

most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof

大部分房屋的屋顶实际上 有充足的光照，

pretty much to power all of their needs.

足够提供他们所需的所有电能。

If you could capture the power,

如果你能够利用这种能源，

it could pretty much power all their needs.

这基本上满足了他们所有的需要。

You could go off-grid, kind of.

你可以某种程度上不需要电网了。

EM: It depends on where you are

EM：这取决于你的位置

and what the house size is relative to the roof area,

以及屋顶面积和房屋面积的比例，

but it's a fair statement to say

但是一般而言可以说

that most houses in the US have enough roof area

美国的大部分房屋有足够大的屋顶

to power all the needs of the house.

产生足够全家使用的电能。

CA: So the key to the economics

CA：所以这项经济活动的关键

of the cars, the Semi, of these houses

包括汽车、半挂卡车、这些房屋

is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries,

是锂电池的价格需要足够低，

which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.

这是你在特斯拉上的豪赌。

In many ways, that's almost the core competency.

从很多方面讲，这都算是核心能力。

And you've decided

所以你决定

that to really, like, own that competency,

为了能够真正的拥有这项核心能力，

you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant

你需要建造世界上最大的生产厂房

to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries,

将世界锂电池供应量翻倍，

with this guy. What is this?

用这个家伙。这是什么？

EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,

EM：对，这是超级工厂，

progress so far on the Gigafactory.

超级工厂目前的进展。

Eventually, you can sort of roughly see

最终，你大概能够看到

that there's sort of a diamond shape overall,

一个类似钻石形状的轮廓，

and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond,

等到完全竣工，它会像一个巨型钻石，

or that's the idea behind it,

这也是这个背后的点子，

and it's aligned on true north.

这指向正北方。

It's a small detail.

这是个小细节。

CA: And capable of producing, eventually,

CA：最终将有能力生产，

like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.

每年生产几百兆瓦时的电源。

EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.

EM：一百兆瓦时。我们觉得可能 会更多一些，不过，是的。

CA: And they're actually being produced right now.

CA：而且实际上他们已经投入生产了。

EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video.

EM：他们已经在生产了。 CA：你的员工放了这段视频。

I mean, is that speeded up?

我想问，这是快进了么？

EM: That's the slowed down version.

EM：这是慢速回放的版本。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: How fast does it actually go?

CA：那么它实际上会有多快？

EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,

EM：嗯，当它全速运行的时候，

you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light.

不用频闪灯你是看不到具体的电池的，

It's just blur.

是模糊的影子。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future

CA：你的一个核心观念，伊隆， 创在一个令人兴奋的未来

is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy.

这个未来人们在使用能源上 不用再有罪恶感。

Help us picture this.

帮我们描绘一下。

How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?

需要多少超级工厂，按你的设想， 才能帮助我们达到目标？

EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.

EM：大概需要一百座，基本上。

It's not 10, it's not a thousand.

不是10座，不是1000座。

Most likely a hundred.

最有可能是一百座。

CA: See, I find this amazing.

CA：看，我觉得很神奇。

You can picture what it would take

你可以描绘出为了让世界

to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing.

抛弃化石燃料需要的具体步骤。

It's like you're building one,

好像你建造这一座工厂，

it costs five billion dollars,

造价是五十亿美元，

or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.

或者可能是，五十亿到一百亿美元。

Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project.

你能描绘出那样的场景相当的酷。

And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.

而且你的特斯拉公司还计划 —— 今年再建设两座超级工厂。

EM: I think we'll announce locations

EM：我觉得我们会在今年晚些时候

for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year.

公开二到四座超级工厂的选址。

Yeah, probably four.

对，可能是四座。

CA: Whoa.

CA：哇。

(Applause)

（掌声）

No more teasing from you for here?

这里能透露更多信息么？

Like -- where, continent?

例如 —— 哪个大陆？

You can say no.

你可以说不。

EM: We need to address a global market.

EM：我们需要考虑全球市场。

CA: OK.

CA：好吧。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

This is cool.

酷。

I think we should talk for --

我想我们需要谈论一下 ——

Actually, global market.

实际上，加上双引号。

I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one.

我接下来要问一个政治问题，就一个。

I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this.

我是厌恶政治的，但是我想问你这个问题。

You're on a body now giving advice to a guy --

你现在加入了一个委员会 为一个人提供建议 ——

EM: Who?

EM：谁？

CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change,

CA：一个自称不相信全球变暖的人，

and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that.

并且有很多人觉得你不应该参与其中。

They'd like you to walk away from that.

他们希望你远离这些。

What would you say to them?

你如何回应他们？

EM: Well, I think that first of all,

EM：嗯，我想首先，

I'm just on two advisory councils

我只是在两个咨询委员会里

where the format consists of going around the room

形式上大概就是聚在一间屋子里

and asking people's opinion on things,

问人们关于一些议题的看法，

and so there's like a meeting every month or two.

大概一两个月开一次会。

That's the sum total of my contribution.

这是我所有的贡献。

But I think to the degree that there are people in the room

但是我想对在场的那些因为关心

who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change,

气候变化而争论的朋友，或是争论

or social issues,

社会议题的朋友，

I've used the meetings I've had thus far

我利用我参与这些会议的机会

to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.

为移民问题和气候变化问题发声。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And if I hadn't done that,

如果我没有这么做，

that wasn't on the agenda before.

这些本来都不在议题上。

So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.

所以可能什么都不会发生， 但是该说的我都说了。

CA: OK.

CA：OK。

(Applause)

（掌声）

So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.

让我们聊聊SpaceX和火星。

Last time you were here,

上一次你来这里，

you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream

你讲述了一个看起来充满野心 并且难以置信的梦想

to develop rockets that were actually reusable.

创造一种可以回收利用的火箭。

And you've only gone and done it.

现在你终于做到了。

EM: Finally. It took a long time.

EM：终于。这花了很长时间。

CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?

CA：跟我们说说这个。 我们现在看到了什么？

EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters

EM：这是我们的一个火箭推进器

coming back from very high and fast in space.

从很高的天空快速返回的视频。

So just delivered the upper stage

它在火箭高速飞行的

at high velocity.

前期阶段进行推动。

I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so,

我想这大概有7马赫左右，

delivery of the upper stage.

运送上节火箭。

(Applause)

（掌声）

CA: So that was a sped-up --

CA：所以这是个快速 ——

EM: That was the slowed down version.

EM：这是个慢速回放版本。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: I thought that was the sped-up version.

CA：我以为这是个快进版本。

But I mean, that's amazing,

但是我想说这太神奇了，

and several of these failed

而且前几次都失败了

before you finally figured out how to do it,

后来你终于发现了正确的方法，

but now you've done this, what, five or six times?

现在你们已经做了，五到六次？

EM: We're at eight or nine.

EM：我们成功了八九次了。

CA: And for the first time,

CA：这是历史上第一次，

you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.

你回收和再利用了着陆之后的火箭。

EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster

EM：对，我们回收了火箭推进器

and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again,

并且重新注入燃料继续使用， 继续回收，

so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster

所以这是第一次太空轨道推进器 的重复飞行，

where that reflight is relevant.

注意这里再次飞行是有意义的。

So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant

这里很重要的一点需要支持 就是可重用性只有在

if it is rapid and complete.

快速和完备的时候才是有意义的。

So like an aircraft or a car,

就像是飞行器或者汽车，

the reusability is rapid and complete.

它们的重复使用是快速且完备的。

You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.

你不会在两次航空飞行之间 把飞机送回波音公司。

CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea

CA：对。所以这让你能够实现那个 野心勃勃的梦想

of sending many, many, many people to Mars

把很多很多人送上火星

in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.

在大概10年、20年之内，我猜。

EM: Yeah.

EM：对。

CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it.

CA：然后你设计了这样大胆的 火箭来实现这个目标。

Help us understand the scale of this thing.

跟我们解释一下这个事情的规模。

EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person.

EM：好，你可以看到这里有一个人。

Yeah, and that's the vehicle.

对，那是火箭。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: So if that was a skyscraper,

CA：所以如果那是个摩天大楼的话，

that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?

那么大概，如果没算错， 大概40层的摩天大楼？

EM: Probably a little more, yeah.

EM：可能稍微更高一些，对。

The thrust level of this is really --

这个级别的推动力非常的 ——

This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.

这个推动力大概是土星5型火箭的4倍。

CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.

CA：比人类创造的最大推进力的火箭 多四倍的推进力。

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

EM：对，对。

CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.

CA：这个能做到。 EM：对呀。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,

以波音747做比较，一架747的推动力 大概是25万磅的推动力，

so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,

所以一千万镑的推动力，

there's 40 747s.

相当于40架747.

So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.

所以这相当于120架747的推动力， 如果引擎都打开的话。

CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity,

CA：所以用这台设计用来摆脱 地心引力的机器，

I think you told me last time

我想上次你告诉我说

this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747,

这东西能够装载一架满载的747，

people, cargo, everything,

人，货物，所有东西，

into orbit.

送入轨道。

EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,

EM：没错。这个可以装载一架 加满油的747，

maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 --

747上乘客满员、货物满员 ——

this can take it as cargo.

可以整体当作货物。

CA: So based on this,

CA：所以基于这个

you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System

你最近展示了这个星际传送系统

which is visualized this way.

画出来是这个样子的。

This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time?

这个场景你描述的是 30年后？20年后？

People walking into this rocket.

人们走进这个火箭。

EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame.

EM：我希望这是8到10年之后的场景。

Aspirationally, that's our target.

这是我们的雄心壮志。

Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --

我们内部的目标更加的激进，不过我想 ——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: OK.

CA：好吧。

EM: While vehicle seems quite large

EM：虽然航空器看起来非常大

and is large by comparison with other rockets,

并且比其它火箭都要大，

I think the future spacecraft

我想未来的宇宙飞船

will make this look like a rowboat.

会让这个看起来就像是小船一样。

The future spaceships will be truly enormous.

未来的航天飞机将真的会很大。

CA: Why, Elon?

CA：为什么，伊隆？

Why do we need to build a city on Mars

为什么我们需要在火星上建造城市

with a million people on it in your lifetime,

在你的有生之年移民一百万人口，

which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do?

这是我理解的你想要做的事情？

EM: I think it's important to have

EM：我觉得非常重要的是

a future that is inspiring and appealing.

有一个激动人心和向往的未来。

I just think there have to be reasons

我就是觉得必须要有理由

that you get up in the morning and you want to live.

让你每天早晨醒来的时候 有活下去的兴趣。

Like, why do you want to live?

像是，你为什么要活着？

What's the point? What inspires you?

意义是什么？有什么东西鼓舞着你？

What do you love about the future?

未来你有什么期许？

And if we're not out there,

如果我们不能去火星，

if the future does not include being out there among the stars

如果我们的未来不包括 在多个行星上生活

and being a multiplanet species,

并且成为跨行星的物种，

I find that it's incredibly depressing

我发现这将会特别的令人失望，

if that's not the future that we're going to have.

如果这个不是我们即将 迎来的未来的话。

(Applause)

（掌声）

CA: People want to position this as an either or,

CA：人们可能将这个事情放在次要位置，

that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now

或者说这个星球上已经有那么多 叫人绝望的事情，

from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue.

从气候问题到贫困问题，而你， 你挑了你关心的问题。

And this feels like a distraction.

这感觉像是有点偏离重点。

You shouldn't be thinking about this.

你不应该思考这些。

You should be solving what's here and now.

你应该解决当前和当下的问题。

And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that

公平地讲，你已经做了一些 实质性的工作

with your work on sustainable energy.

比如你在可再生能源上的贡献。

But why not just do that?

但是为什么不满足于此呢？

EM: I think there's --

EM：我觉得 ——

I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities.

我是从概率的角度看待未来的。

It's like a branching stream of probabilities,

未来就像是不断在的分岔路上做选择，

and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities

有一些行为是我们可以做的 会改变可能性

or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing.

或是加快一件事情， 或是减慢一件事情。

I may introduce something new to the probability stream.

我可能在这个可能性的洪流中 引入新的东西。

Sustainable energy will happen no matter what.

可再生能源一定会发生。

If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed,

如果没有特斯拉， 特斯拉从未存在，

it would have to happen out of necessity.

它也会因为有存在的必要性而出现。

It's tautological.

这是赘述。

If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy.

如果你没有可再生能源， 意味着你有不可再生能源。

Eventually you will run out,

最终能源会耗尽，

and the laws of economics will drive civilization

经济定律会引导我们的文明

towards sustainable energy,

朝着可再生能源发展，

inevitably.

不可避免的。

The fundamental value of a company like Tesla

像是特斯拉这样的企业的根本价值

is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy,

在于一定程度上加速 可再生能源的到来，

faster than it would otherwise occur.

会比没有特斯拉的时候来得更快。

So when I think, like,

所以当我想着，比如，

what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla,

像是特斯拉这样的企业的核心价值，

I would say, hopefully,

我会说，希望是，

if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade,

如果它能够推动这个进程提前十年， 可能超过十年，

that would be quite a good thing to occur.

那么这将是非常好的事情。

That's what I consider to be

这是我所考虑的

the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.

特斯拉公司最核心的雄心壮志。

Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization.

然后我想到了跨星球的物种 和在宇宙中分型的文明。

This is not inevitable.

这并不是必然发生的。

It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable.

这件事情并不是必然发生， 这非常重要。

The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable,

可再生能源的未来，我觉得 很大程度上是必然发生的。

but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable.

但是成为能够在宇宙间飞行的文明 显然不是必然要发生的未来。

If you look at the progress in space,

如果你看下太空技术的进步，

in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon.

在1969年我们就可以把人送上月球。

1969.

1969.

Then we had the Space Shuttle.

后来我们有了航天飞机。

The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit.

航天飞机只能够把人送入低轨。

Then the Space Shuttle retired,

然后航天飞机退休了，

and the United States could take no one to orbit.

然后美国就没有办法把人送入轨道了。

So that's the trend.

所以这就是趋势。

The trend is like down to nothing.

这个趋势是退化到什么都没有。

People are mistaken when they think

人们有时候会错误的理解

that technology just automatically improves.

觉得技术肯定是自动的提升的。

It does not automatically improve.

技术并不会自动的改进。

It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better,

只有当很多人投入大量精力 努力去改善的时候才有可能。

and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually.

我想实际上，技术本身是会退化的。

You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt,

你看看古埃及的伟大文明，

and they were able to make the pyramids,

他们当时建造了金字塔，

and they forgot how to do that.

他们现在忘记怎么建造的了。

And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts.

还有罗马人，他们建造了难以置信的 沟渠系统。

They forgot how to do it.

他们也忘记怎么建造的了。

CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you

CA：伊隆，看起来，听你说的话

and looking at the different things you've done,

以及看着你做的这些不同的工作，

that you've got this unique double motivation on everything

你的每件事情都有这独特的 双重动机，

that I find so interesting.

我发现这很有意思。

One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good.

一个动机是渴望做人类长远福祉的事。

The other is the desire to do something exciting.

另一个是做激动人心的事。

And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other.

而且看起来你经常会觉得需要用 一个动机去主导另一个动机。

With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy,

对特斯拉你希望有可再生能源，

so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it.

所以你做出了这样炫酷的轿车 来达到这个目的。

Solar energy, we need to get there,

太阳能，我们需要实现它，

so we need to make these beautiful roofs.

所以我们需要这些漂亮的屋顶。

We haven't even spoken about your newest thing,

我们还没有谈论到你最新的东西，

which we don't have time to do,

我们的时间有限，

but you want to save humanity from bad AI,

但是你希望避免坏的AI毁灭人性，

and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface

所以你想要创建一个真的很酷的 人脑跟机器的接口

to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth.

给我们无限的记忆和心灵感应等等。

And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is,

关于火星，感觉你说的是，

yeah, we need to save humanity

对，我们需要拯救人类，

and have a backup plan,

需要有一个备份方案，

but also we need to inspire humanity,

但是同时我们也需要激发人性，

and this is a way to inspire.

这是激励我们的方式。

EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration

EM：我认为美和激励人心的价值

is very much underrated,

被大大的低估了，

no question.

毫无疑问。

But I want to be clear.

但是我想要澄清一点。

I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.

我不想成为谁的救世主。

That is not the --

那不是 ——

I'm just trying to think about the future

我只是想要想象未来

and not be sad.

希望不要失望。

(Applause)

（掌声）

CA: Beautiful statement.

CA：完美的说辞。

I think everyone here would agree

我想每个人都会同意

that it is not --

那不是 ——

None of this is going to happen inevitably.

没有任何一件事情 是确定会发生的。

The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff,

你脑海中的这些事实， 你梦想的东西，

you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream,

你梦想的东西没有人敢这么做梦，

or no one else would be capable of dreaming

或者没有其他人能够将梦想

at the level of complexity that you do.

达到你这个能力和级别的复杂程度。

The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing.

事实上你做的事情，伊隆·马斯克， 真的都很了不起。

Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.

感谢你让我们的梦想都变大了一点。

EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?

EM：但是当我开始变得有些疯狂的时候， 你们会提醒我的，对吧？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic.

CA：谢谢你，伊隆·马斯克。 这真的非常、非常的棒。

That was really fantastic.

真的非常棒。

(Applause)

（掌声）