Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring | TED

Prevoditelj: Maja Covic Recezent: Viktorija Đuđik

Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.

Chris Anderson: Dobrodošao ponovno na TED, Elone.

It's great to have you here.

Divno je da si ovdje.

Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.

Elon Musk: Hvala na pozivu.

CA: So, in the next half hour or so,

CA: Idućih pola sata

we're going to spend some time

provest ćemo

exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like,

istražujući tvoju viziju uzbudljive budućnosti,

which I guess makes the first question a little ironic:

zbog čega je prvo pitanje pomalo ironično:

Why are you boring?

Zašto zabušavaš?

EM: Da.

EM: Yeah.

I ask myself that frequently.

Često se i sam to pitam.

We're trying to dig a hole under LA,

Pokušavamo prokopati rupu podno Los Angelesa,

and this is to create the beginning

kako bismo započeli,

of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels

nadam se, trodimenzionalnu mrežu tunela

to alleviate congestion.

radi rasterećenja prometa.

So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic.

Promet je trenutno jedna od najgorih stvari danas.

It affects people in every part of the world.

Utječe na ljude diljem svijeta.

It takes away so much of your life.

Oduzima nam toliko vremena.

To je strašno.

It's horrible.

Posebno je strašno u LA-u.

It's particularly horrible in LA.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: I think you've brought with you

CA: Mislim da si ponio sa sobom

the first visualization that's been shown of this.

prvi vizualni prikaz toga.

Can I show this?

Mogu li pokazati?

EM: Naravno. Ovo je prvi put --

EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time --

Just to show what we're talking about.

Samo da pokažem o čemu govorimo.

So a couple of key things that are important

Ovo su neke od od ključnih stvari

in having a 3D tunnel network.

za trodimenzionalnu mrežu tunela.

First of all, you have to be able

Prvo, trebate moći

to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel

sjediniti ulaz i izlaz iz tunela

seamlessly into the fabric of the city.

besprijekorno s planom grada.

So by having an elevator,

Pomoću dizala,

sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator,

svojevrsnom platformom za aute, koja je na dizalu,

you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network

možete sjediniti ulaze i izlaze s mrežom tunela

just by using two parking spaces.

koristeći samo dva parkirna mjesta.

And then the car gets on a skate.

Auto onda dolazi na platformu.

There's no speed limit here,

Ovdje nema ograničenja brzine,

so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.

pa radimo na tome da može voziti 200 kilometara na sat.

CA: How much?

CA: Koliko?

EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour.

EM: 200 kilometara na sat, odnosno 130 milja na sat.

So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX

Tako bi putovanje od Westwooda do Zračne luke Los Angeles

trajalo pet do šest minuta.

in six minutes -- five, six minutes.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

CA: So possibly, initially done,

CA: Znači da bi se to onda

it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.

temeljilo na cestarini.

EM: Yeah.

EM: Tako je.

CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic

CA: Tako bi se rasteretio i promet

from the surface streets as well.

na cestama.

EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video,

EM: Ne znam jesu li ljudi primijetili to u videu,

but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have.

ne postoji pravo ograničenje na to koliko razina tunela možemo imati.

You can go much further deep than you can go up.

Možemo ići mnogo dublje nego što možemo ići u visinu.

The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall,

Najdublji rudnici su mnogo dublji od najviših zgrada,

so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion

tako da možemo rasteretiti svaku proizvoljnu razinu urbane gužve

with a 3D tunnel network.

pomoću 3D mreže tunela.

To je vrlo bitna stavka.

This is a very important point.

So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels,

Glavni argument protiv tunela jest da ako dodamo jednu razinu tunela,

to će samo rasteretiti gužvu i bit će potpuno iskorišten,

that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up,

and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion.

a onda ćemo opet biti na početku, s problemom prometne zagušenosti.

No, možemo ići do bilo kojeg proizvoljnog broja tunela,

But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels,

any number of levels.

i bilo kojeg broja razina.

CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig,

CA: Ljudi su oduvijek iskapanje smatrali nevjerojatno skupim,

and that would block this idea.

i to može biti zapreka ovoj ideji.

EM: Yeah.

EM: Da.

U pravu su.

Well, they're right.

To give you an example, the LA subway extension,

Kao primjer ću vam dati produženje losanđeleske podzemne željeznice,

mislim da je oko 4 kilometara dugačko

which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension

that was just completed for two billion dollars.

i nedavno dovršeno za dvije milijarde dolara.

Znači da jedan i pol km produžene podzemne u LA-u košta oko milijardu dolara.

So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA.

And this is not the highest utility subway in the world.

I k tome se ne radi o najefikasnijoj podzemnoj na svijetu.

So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally.

Dakle, istina je da nije lako kopati tunele.

I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement

Mislim da trebamo najmanje deseterostruko poboljšanje

u trošku po kilometru tunela.

in the cost per mile of tunneling.

CA: Kako biste to ostvarili?

CA: And how could you achieve that?

EM: Actually, if you just do two things,

EM: Ako napravimo samo dvije stvari,

you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement,

dosegli bismo otprilike napredak za red veličine,

and I think you can go beyond that.

a mislim da možemo postići i više od toga.

So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter

Prvo trebamo smanjiti promjer tunela

za barem polovicu ili više.

by a factor of two or more.

So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations

Tako tunel s jednom trakom, prema propisima

has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter

mora biti promjera 8 ili 8.5 metara

to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles

kako bi bilo prostora u slučaju nesreće i za vozila hitne pomoći,

and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars.

kao i za ventilaciju za vozila s motorom s unutrašnjim sagorijevanjem.

Međutim, ako suzite promjer kako mi namjeravamo,

But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting,

which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through,

a to je 3.6 metara, što je dovoljno za prolazak električnog nosača,

you drop the diameter by a factor of two

tunel ste prepolovili

and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four,

a prostor poprečnog presjeka četverostruko umanjili,

and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.

a cijena kopanja tunela ovisi o veličini poprečnog presjeka.

So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.

To je otprilike napredak za pola reda veličine.

Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop,

Strojevi za iskapanje tunela polovicu vremena rade, a drugu polovicu miruju,

and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements

a ostatak vremena radimo na učvršćivanju

for the tunnel wall.

zidova tunela.

Pa ako umjesto toga stvorite strojeve

So if you design the machine instead

to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing,

koji će neprestano kopati i učvršćivati tunele,

that will give you a factor of two improvement.

to će značiti dupli napredak.

Kad ste to zbroji, dobivamo osmerostruko poboljšanje.

Combine that and that's a factor of eight.

Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits,

Osim toga, ti strojevi još nisu ni blizu granice svoje toplinske moći,

so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially.

pa im možemo značajno povećati snagu.

Mislim da ih barem za polovicu,

I think you can get at least a factor of two,

možda čak i četiri ili pet puta možemo osnažiti.

maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that.

So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps

Mislim da imamo vrlo jasan slijed koraka

to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement

kako bismo dosegli više od jednog reda veličine poboljšanja

in the cost per mile,

cijene po kilometru.

and our target actually is --

Naš je cilj zapravo -

we've got a pet snail called Gary,

imamo ljubimca puža Garyja,

prema pužu Garyju iz "South Parka",

this is from Gary the snail from "South Park,"

I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."

odnosno crtića "Spužva Bob Skockani".

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So Gary is capable of --

Gary može

currently he's capable of going 14 times faster

trenutno može ići 14 puta brže

than a tunnel-boring machine.

od stroja za kopanje tunela.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: You want to beat Gary.

CA: Želite pobijediti Garyja.

EM: We want to beat Gary.

EM: Želimo ga pobijediti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

On nije jako strpljiv,

He's not a patient little fellow,

and that will be victory.

i to će biti uspijeh.

Victory is beating the snail.

Pobjeda je preticanje puža.

CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities,

CA: Međutim, mnogi ljudi koji sanjaju o gradovima budućnosti

they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.

zamišljaju leteće automobile, dronove i slično.

You go aboveground.

Išlo bi se u visinu.

Why isn't that a better solution?

Zašto to nije bolje riješenje?

You save all that tunneling cost.

Toliko bismo uštedjeli na iskapanju tunela.

EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.

EM: Ja sam za leteće stvari.

Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly.

Očigledno volim leteće stvari, s obzirom da proizvodim rakete.

This is not some inherent bias against flying things,

Ovdje nije riječ o predrasudi spram letjelica,

but there is a challenge with flying cars

već prostoje određeni izazovi kod letećih automobila,

in that they'll be quite noisy,

poput velike buke,

the wind force generated will be very high.

ili proizvodnje velike snage vjetra.

Samo ću reći to da ako nešto leti iznad naših glava,

Let's just say that if something's flying over your head,

a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place,

gomila letećih automobila koji lete na sve strane,

that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.

to sigurno nije umirujuća situacija.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today."

Nećete pomisliti, "Baš mi je danas dobar dan."

You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap,

Pomislit ćete, "Jesu li servisirali ratkape,

ili će otpasti i giljotinirati me?"

or is it going to come off and guillotine me?"

Takve stvari.

Things like that.

CA: So you've got this vision

CA: Znači imaš viziju

of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath.

budućih gradova s bogatim 3D mrežama tunela.

Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?

Ima li tu veza s Hyperloopom?

Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea

Biste li mogli primijeniti te tunele na ideji Hyperloopa

you released a few years ago.

koju ste predstavili prije par godina?

EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around

EM:Neko vrijeme smo petljali

s nacrtima Hyperloopa.

with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.

We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX,

Izgradili smo testnu stazu za Hyperloop pored SpaceX-a,

just for a student competition,

samo radi natjecanja za studente,

to encourage innovative ideas in transport.

da potaknemo inovativne ideje u prometu.

And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world

Na kraju je to ispala najveća vakuumska komora na svijetu

after the Large Hadron Collider,

nakon Velikog hadronskog sudarivača,

by volume.

po volumenu.

So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing,

Bilo je zabavno to napraviti, ali to mi je više bio hobi.

and then we think we might --

Mislimo da bismo mogli -

so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods,

Izgradili smo mali auto koji gura kapsule studenata,

but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go

i probat ćemo vidjeti koliko brzo on može ići

if it's not pushing something.

ako ne gura ništa.

So we're cautiously optimistic

Oprezno smo optimistični

da ćemo moći putovati brže od najbržeg supervlaka

we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train

čak i u rasponu od 1.3 kilometra.

even in a .8-mile stretch.

CA: Whoa. Good brakes.

CA: Opa, dobre kočnice.

EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.

EM: Da. Mislim, da će -- da.

It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.

Ili će se raspasti na komadiće ili će ići vrlo brzo.

CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel

CA: Možemo zamisliti Hyperloop u tunelu

running quite long distances.

kako prelazi velike razdaljine.

EM: Exactly.

EM: Upravo tako.

Promatrajući tehnologiju tunela,

And looking at tunneling technology,

it turns out that in order to make a tunnel,

ispada da, kako bi se napravio tunel,

you have to --

trebate --

In order to seal against the water table,

Kako biste se osigurali od podzemnih voda,

you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good

trebate sagraditi zid koji može izdržati

to about five or six atmospheres.

pritisak od oko pet ili šest atmosfera.

Uvođenje vakuuma je samo jedna atmosfera,

So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,

or near-vacuum.

ili stanje blizu vakuuma.

So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically,

Ispada da zapravo automatski,

ako izgradimo tunel koji je dovoljno osiguran od podzemnih voda,

if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table,

onda je on automatski sposoban zadržavati vakuum.

it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.

CA: Huh.

CA: Hm.

EM: Da.

EM: So, yeah.

CA: And so you could actually picture,

CA: Možeš li zamisliti

what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?

koliko bi bio dugačak tvoj tunel koji funkcionira po principu Hyperloopa?

EM: I think there's no real length limit.

EM: Mislim da nema granice u dužini.

You could dig as much as you want.

Možete kopati koliko god želite.

I think if you were to do something

Mislim da, kada biste napravili nešto

like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,

poput Hyperloopa između Washingtona i New Yorka,

mislim da biste željeli da to bude cijelom dužinom pod zemljom

I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way

because it's a high-density area.

jer se radi o gusto naseljenom području.

You're going under a lot of buildings and houses,

Idete ispod mnogo zgrada i kuća,

and if you go deep enough,

i ako idete dovoljno duboko,

you cannot detect the tunnel.

ne možete primijetiti tunel.

Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying

Ljudi ponekad misle, "Bit će koma

to have a tunnel dug under my house.

kada će mi kopati tunel ispod kuće."

Like, if that tunnel is dug

Ako taj tunel kopate

more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house,

više od tri ili četiri promjera tunela ispod kuće,

uopće nećete primijetiti da se kopa.

you will not be able to detect it being dug at all.

In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug,

Zapravo, ako to uspijete primijetiti,

whatever device you are using,

koji god da uređaj koristite,

you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military,

možete dobiti jako puno novaca od izraelske vojske za taj uređaj,

who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas,

jer pokušava otkriti Hamasove tunele,

and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels.

kao i od Američke agencije za carinu i zaštitu granice koja traži tunele droge.

So the reality is

Dakle, u stvarnosti

that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations,

zemlja odlično upija vibracije,

and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level,

i kada je dubina tunela ispod određene razine,

it is undetectable.

tunel onda je neprimjetan.

Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument,

Možda ako imate vrlo osjetljiv seizmički instrument,

onda ćete ga moći detektirati.

you might be able to detect it.

CA: So you've started a new company to do this

CA: Osnovao si novu tvrtku koja se time bavi

called The Boring Company.

duhovito nazvanu The Boring Company.

Very nice. Very funny.

(boring na eng. "bušenje" i "dosadan")

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

EM: What's funny about that?

EM: Što je tu tako smiješno?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: How much of your time is this?

CA: Koliko ti to vremena oduzima?

EM: It's maybe ...

EM: Možda...

two or three percent.

dva ili tri posto.

CA: You've called it a hobby.

CA: Kupio si hobi.

This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.

Ovako izgleda hobi Elona Muska.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

EM: I mean, it really is, like --

EM: Zaista je kao --

Time se zapravo bave pripravnici i honorarni radnici.

This is basically interns and people doing it part time.

We bought some second-hand machinery.

Kupili smo rabljenu mašineriju.

Malo petljamo s time, ali dobro napredujemo.

It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --

CA: Veći dio tvog vremena

CA: So an even bigger part of your time

is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla.

otpada na elektrificiranje auta i prometa kroz Teslu.

Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project

Je li jedan od motiva za projekt tunela

shvaćanje da zapravo

the realization that actually,

in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving,

u svijetu u kojem su automobili električni i samoupravljajući,

možda će doći do još većeg broja automobila na cestama

there may end up being more cars on the roads

on any given hour than there are now?

nego što ih trenutno ima?

EM: Upravo tako.

EM: Yeah, exactly.

Mnogi misle da kada napravite autonomne automobile,

A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous,

they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion.

da će moći voziti brže i tako riješiti problem prometnih gužvi.

To će donekle i biti tako,

And to some degree that will be true,

but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car

ali čim imate zajedničku autonomiju, mnogo je jeftinije ići automobilom

i možete ići od točke do točke.

and you can go point to point,

the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.

Pristupačnost putovanja autom bit će veća od putovanja autobusom.

Manje će koštati od karte za autobus.

Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.

So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy,

Dakle, zajednička autonomija utjecat će na porast vožnje,

and actually traffic will get far worse.

i promet će se pogoršati.

CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world

CA: Osnovao si Teslu kako bi uvjerio svijet

that electrification was the future of cars,

da je elektrifikacija budućnost automobila

and a few years ago, people were laughing at you.

i do prije par godina ljudi su ti se smijali.

Sada se baš i ne smiju.

Now, not so much.

EM: OK.

EM: Ok.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I don't know. I don't know.

Ne znam.

CA: Nije li istina da je gotovo svaki proizvođač automobila

CA: But isn't it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer

has announced serious electrification plans

najavio ozbiljne planove elektrifikacije

for the short- to medium-term future?

za kratkoročnu tj. srednjoročnu budućnost?

EM: Tako je.

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program.

Mislim da svaki proizvođač auta ima neki program za elektrifikaciju vozila.

They vary in seriousness.

Njihova ozbiljnost varira.

Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric,

Neki vrlo ozbiljno planiraju potpuno prijeći na električnu struju,

and some are just dabbling in it.

dok se drugi samo površno time bave.

And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells,

Neki, za divno čudo, još zagovaraju gorive ćelije,

but I think that won't last much longer.

ali mislim da to neće još dugo trajati.

CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,

CA: No, nije li istina da

where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it."

sada možeš proglasiti pobjedu i reći "Uspjeli smo."

Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?

Neka se svijet elektrificira, a ti se kreneš baviti drugim stvarima?

EM: Yeah.

EM: Da.

I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine,

Namjeravam ostati u Tesli dokle god se mogu tamo zamisliti,

and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming.

a radimo na mnogim uzbudljivim stvarima.

Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.

Uskoro izlazi Model 3.

We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.

Prikazat ćemo i Teslin tegljač.

CA: Doći ćemo i na to.

CA: OK, we're going to come to this.

Znači, Model 3 bi trebao izaći u srpnju?

So Model 3, it's supposed to be coming in July-ish.

EM: Da, dobri su izgledi za početak proizvodnje u srpnju.

EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good for starting production in July.

CA: Wow.

CA: Opa.

Jedan od razloga zašto su ljudi toliko uzbuđeni

One of the things that people are so excited about

is the fact that it's got autopilot.

jest činjenica da ima autopilot.

And you put out this video a while back

Objavio si ovaj video prije nekog vremena

pokazujući kako će ta tehnologija izgledati.

showing what that technology would look like.

EM: Yeah.

EM: Da.

CA: There's obviously autopilot in Model S right now.

CA: Očigledno, Model S već sada ima autopilot.

Što sada gledamo?

What are we seeing here?

EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS.

EM: Ovdje se koriste samo kamera i GPS.

So there's no LIDAR or radar being used here.

Ne koristi se ni LIDAR niti radar.

Koristi se samo pasivna optika, što zapravo i čovjek koristi.

This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses.

The whole road system is meant to be navigated

Cijelim cestovnim sustavom kretalo bi se

with passive optical, or cameras,

uz pomoć pasivne optike ili kamera,

and so once you solve cameras

i kada riješite problem kamera

ili vida,

or vision,

then autonomy is solved.

riješili ste samoupravljanje.

If you don't solve vision, it's not solved.

Ako ne riješite problem vida, niste ni samoupravljanje.

Zato se toliko fokusiramo na vizualnu neuronsku mrežu

So that's why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net

koja je jako efikasna kod uvjeta na cesti.

that's very effective for road conditions.

CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route.

CA: Dobro. Mnogi radije koriste LIDAR kao rješenje.

Ti želiš samo kamere i radar.

You want cameras plus radar is most of it.

EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras.

EM: Apsolutno je moguće biti superčovjek samo s kamerama.

Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would,

Vjerojatno bi funkcionirao deset puta bolje od običnih ljudi,

just cameras.

samo uz pomoć kamera.

CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them.

CA: Novi auti koji su u prodaji imaju osam kamera.

Još ne mogu raditi ono što smo vidjeli.

They can't yet do what that showed.

When will they be able to?

Kada će to moći raditi?

EM: I think we're still on track for being able to go cross-country

EM: Mislim da smo na dobrom putu da prijeđemo preko cijele zemlje

from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.

od LA-a do New Yorka do kraja godine, potpuno autonomno.

CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you're saying,

CA: Znači, tvrdiš da će do kraja godine

someone's going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel,

netko sjesti u Teslu da ne dirne volan,

tap in "New York," off it goes.

utipkati "New York" i samo krenuti.

EM: Yeah.

EM: Da.

CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.

CA: Neće uopće trebati dirati volan, do kraja 2017. godine.

EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year,

EM: Da. U suštini, do studenog ili prosinca ove godine,

we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California

trebali bismo moći prijeći cijeli put od parkirališta u Kaliforniji

to a parking lot in New York,

do parkirališta u New Yorku,

bez manualnog upravljanja tijekom cijelog puta.

no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

CA: Amazing.

CA: Čudesno.

No, ovo je djelomično već moguće

But part of that is possible

because you've already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads.

jer već imate cijelu flotu Tesli koje voze po cestama.

You're accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.

Prikupljate goleme količine podataka nacionalnog cestovnog sustava.

EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting

EM: Da, no ono što će biti zanimljivo

jest to što će sigurno moći prijeći tu rutu

is that I'm actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route

even if you change the route dynamically.

čak i ako je dinamički mijenjate.

So, it's fairly easy --

Dakle, prilično je jednostavno --

Ako kažete da će mi dobro ići na jednoj ruti, to je jedna stvar,

If you say I'm going to be really good at one specific route, that's one thing,

but it should be able to go, really be very good,

ali trebalo bi dobro funkcionirati

certainly once you enter a highway,

čim se uključite na autocestu,

to go anywhere on the highway system

kako biste se nesmetano kretali po autocestama

in a given country.

u navedenoj zemlji.

Nije ograničeno samo na put od LA-a do New Yorka.

So it's not sort of limited to LA to New York.

We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida,

Možemo promijeniti put u rutu od Seattlea do Floride,

that day, in real time.

taj isti dan, u stvarnom vremenu.

So you were going from LA to New York.

Znači krenuli ste iz LA-a prema New Yorku.

Now go from LA to Toronto.

Onda idete od LA-a u Toronto.

CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second,

CA: Ako stavimo na stranu regulaciju,

i samo govorimo o tehnologiji,

in terms of the technology alone,

the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars

kada će osoba moći kupiti tvoj automobil

and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep

i zaspati doslovno ni ne dodirnuvši volan

and wake up and find that they've arrived,

a zatim se probuditi na odredištu,

how far away is that, to do that safely?

koliko treba vremena da to postane moguće?

EM: I think that's about two years.

EM: Oko dvije godine.

So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work

Pravi problem nije kako da to napravimo da funkcionira

say 99.9 percent of the time,

u 99.9 posto slučajeva,

because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times,

jer ako se pokvari jedan od tisuću automobila,

then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep.

još uvijek vam neće biti ugodna pomisao da zaspite u njemu.

You shouldn't be, certainly.

Ne bi vam trebala biti ugodna.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

Nikada neće biti savršeno.

It's never going to be perfect.

No system is going to be perfect,

Nijedan sustav neće biti savršen,

but if you say it's perhaps --

ali ako kažete da možda --

the car is unlikely to crash

da su mali izgledi za sudar

in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes,

u stotinu ili tisuću života,

then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives,

onda ljudi reagiraju pozitivno, kao "Da živim tisuću života,

I would still most likely never experience a crash,

vjerojatno ni onda ne bih doživi sudar,

i to je zasigurno u redu."

then that's probably OK.

CA: To sleep.

CA: Zaspati u autu.

I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually

Pretpostavljam da te brine pomisao da se ljudi prerano

get seduced too early to think that this is safe,

zavedu mišlju kako je to sigurno,

and that you'll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.

i da će se dogoditi neki užasan incident koji će unazaditi sve ovo.

EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash,

EM: Mislim da će autonomni sustav barem umanjiti sudar,

except in rare circumstances.

osim u rijetkim slučajevima.

The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety

Ono što treba cijeniti kod sigurnosti vozila

is this is probabilistic.

jest to da se temelji na vjerojatnosti.

I mean, there's some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car,

Postoji vjerojatnost da kada god čovjek uđe u automobil,

that they will have an accident that is their fault.

vlastitom krivicom izazove nesreću.

It's never zero.

Ne postoji sto postotna sigurnost.

So really the key threshold for autonomy

Ključni prag za autonomiju je

is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person

koliko zapravo autonomni sustav mora biti bolji od čovjeka

before you can rely on it?

da bi bio pouzdan?

CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving,

CA: No jednom kada dobijete vožnju bez ruku,

moć da se uruši cijela industrija je golema,

the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive,

because at that point you've spoken of people being able to buy a car,

jer si rekao da ćemo moći kupiti auto,

drops you off at work, and then you let it go

koji će nas dovesti na posao, a onda ćemo ga poslati dalje

and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people,

i omogućiti drugima uslugu poput Ubera,

earn you money,

pritom zaraditi novac,

maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car,

možda i pokriti troškove leasinga za auto,

so you can kind of get a car for free.

pa tako gotovo da možete besplatno nabaviti auto.

Je li to zaista moguće?

Is that really likely?

EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen.

EM: Da. Ovo će se apsolutno dogoditi.

So there will be a shared autonomy fleet

Postojat će zajednička autonomna flota

where you buy your car

gdje ćete kupiti auto

and you can choose to use that car exclusively,

i birati da ga samo vi vozite,

ili ćete dozvoliti da ga koriste samo vaša obitelj i prijatelji,

you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family,

only by other drivers who are rated five star,

ili samo drugi vozači ocjenjeni s pet zvijezdica,

you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times.

možete odlučiti kada ga želite i ne želite dijeliti.

To će se sto posto dogoditi.

That's 100 percent what will occur.

It's just a question of when.

Samo je pitanje vremena.

CA: Wow.

CA: Opa.

So you mentioned the Semi

Spomenuo si tegljač

and I think you're planning to announce this in September,

i mislim da ga planiraš najaviti u rujnu,

but I'm curious whether there's anything you could show us today?

ali me zanima ako nam možeš pokazati išta danas?

EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.

EM: Pokazat ću vam sliku kamiona samo da vam zagolicam maštu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's alive.

Živ je.

CA: OK.

CA: Ok.

EM: That's definitely a case where we want to be cautious

EM: Ovdje zaista želimo biti oprezni

about the autonomy features.

s mogućnostima autonomije.

Yeah.

Da.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: We can't see that much of it,

CA: Ne vidimo ga najbolje,

but it doesn't look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck.

no ne izgleda baš kao mali zgodni kamiončić iz susjedstva.

Izgleda opako.

It looks kind of badass.

What sort of semi is this?

Kakva je to vrsta tegljača?

EM: Ovo je tegljač velike nosivosti za velike razdaljine.

EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck.

So it's the highest weight capability

Ima najveću nosivost

i za velike je udaljenosti.

and with long range.

Zapravo bi trebao olakšati prijenos teškog tereta.

So essentially it's meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads.

And this is something which people do not today think is possible.

Danas se to smatra nemogućim.

They think the truck doesn't have enough power or it doesn't have enough range,

Ljudi misle da kamion nema dovoljno snage ili da ne može prijeći velike udaljenosti,

and then with the Tesla Semi

a s Telsa tegljačem

we want to show that no, an electric truck

želimo pokazati da električni kamion

actually can out-torque any diesel semi.

zapravo može biti jači od bilo kojeg kamiona s dizel motorom.

And if you had a tug-of-war competition,

Da imate natjecanje u izdržljivosti,

the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.

Teslin tegljač bi odgurnuo dizelaša uz brdo.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

(Pljesak)

(Applause)

CA: Zaista sjajno. Kratkoročno gledano, njih će trebati voziti.

CA: That's pretty cool. And short term, these aren't driverless.

To će biti kamioni koje će vozači kamiona htjeti voziti.

These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.

EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this

EM: Da. Ono što će biti jako zabavno

jest to da elektromotor ima ravnu krivulju okretnog momenta

is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor,

whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car,

dok dizel motor ili bilo koji auto s motorom s unutrašnjim izgaranjem,

ima krivulju okretnog momenta koja liči na brdo.

you've got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill.

So this will be a very spry truck.

Tako da će ovo biti vrlo žustar kamion.

You can drive this around like a sports car.

Možete ga voziti okolo kao sportski auto.

There's no gears. It's, like, single speed.

Nema brzina, tj. ima samo jednu brzinu.

CA: Sigurno će napraviti sjajan film o ovome.

CA: There's a great movie to be made here somewhere.

I don't know what it is and I don't know that it ends well,

Ne znam koji i nisam siguran hoće li dobro završiti,

but it's a great movie.

ali sigurno će biti dobar film.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.

EM: Test vožnja je jako bizarna.

When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck.

Kada sam vozio testni prototip za prvi kamion.

It's really weird, because you're driving around

Vrlo je čudan, jer se vozite naokolo

and you're just so nimble, and you're in this giant truck.

i tako ste okretni, a nalazite se u ogromnom kamionu.

CA: Wait, you've already driven a prototype?

CA: Već si vozio prototip?

EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot,

EM: Da, vozio sam ga po parkiralištu,

and I was like, this is crazy.

i bilo mi je ludo.

CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.

CA: Opa. To nam zaista dolazi.

EM: Vožnja ovog golemog kamiona

EM: It's just like, driving this giant truck

and making these mad maneuvers.

i ludi manevri.

CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture

CA: To je sjajno. Idemo s jedne opake slike,

to a kind of less badass picture.

na jednu ne tako opaku sliku.

This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something.

Ovo je poput slatke kuće iz "Očajnih kućanica".

What on earth is going on here?

O čemu se ovdje radi?

EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future

EM: Ovo prikazuje sliku budućnosti

that I think is how things will evolve.

kako ja smatram da će se stvari odvijati.

You've got an electric car in the driveway.

Imate električni auto na prilazu.

If you look in between the electric car and the house,

Ako pogledate između auta i kuće,

there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house,

vidite tri Powerwall baterije naslagane uz zid kuće,

and then that house roof is a solar roof.

a krov kuće je solarni.

To je zapravo solarni stakleni krov.

So that's an actual solar glass roof.

CA: OK.

CA: U redu.

EM: That's a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.

EM: To je slika prave, tj. prave lažne kuće.

That's a real fake house.

To je prava lažna kuća.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: So these roof tiles,

CA: Ti krovni crijepovi,

some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --

neki od njih imaju solarnu energiju, sposobnost da --

EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles

EM: Da. Solarni stakleni crijepovi

where you can adjust the texture and the color

kod kojih možete podesiti teksturu i boju

to a very fine-grained level,

do vrlo precizne razine,

and then there's sort of microlouvers in the glass,

a postoje i mikrootvori u staklu,

tako da kada promatrate krov s razine ulice

such that when you're looking at the roof from street level

or close to street level,

ili blizu razine ulice,

all the tiles look the same

svi crijepovi izgledaju jednako

whether there is a solar cell behind it or not.

bilo da neki imaju ili nemaju solarnu ćeliju ispod sebe.

Imate jednoličnu boju

So you have an even color

from the ground level.

s razine zemlje.

If you were to look at it from a helicopter,

Da promatrate iz helikoptera,

mogli biste vidjeti kroz njih

you would be actually able to look through and see

that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not.

i uočiti solarne ćelije ispod nekih staklenih crijepova.

You can't tell from street level.

To ne možete vidjeti s razine ulice.

CA: Ugrađujete ih u one crijepove koji dobivaju više sunca,

CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun,

and that makes these roofs super affordable, right?

i zato su ti krovovi toliko isplativi, zar ne?

They're not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.

Nisu mnogo skuplji od krova s običnim crijepom.

EM: Yeah.

EM: Tako je.

We're very confident that the cost of the roof

Uvjereni smo da će cijena krova

plus the cost of electricity --

uključujući troškove struje --

A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof

Cijena solarnog staklenog krova bit će manja od cijene običnog krova

plus the cost of electricity.

uključujući troškove struje.

So in other words,

Drugim riječima,

this will be economically a no-brainer,

ovo će biti jednostavna ekonomska odluka,

we think it will look great,

mislimo da će izgledati odlično,

and it will last --

i trajat će --

We thought about having the warranty be infinity,

Razmišljali smo o tome da garancija nema granice,

but then people thought,

no su neki pomislili,

da govorimo gluposti,

well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish,

but actually this is toughened glass.

ali zapravo se radi o kaljenom staklu.

Well after the house has collapsed

Još mnogo godina nakon što se kuća uruši

and there's nothing there,

i ne ostane više ništa od nje,

the glass tiles will still be there.

stakleni crijepovi će još uvijek biti tu.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

CA: I mean, this is cool.

CA: To je zaista sjajno.

Krećeš s ovime za nekoliko tjedana,

So you're rolling this out in a couple week's time, I think,

sa četiri različita tipa krova.

with four different roofing types.

EM: Yeah, we're starting off with two, two initially,

EM: Da, počinjemo s dva tipa,

a druga dva ćemo predstaviti početkom iduće godine.

and the second two will be introduced early next year.

CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?

CA: I koliko ste ambiciozni oko toga?

How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?

Koliko kuća mislite da će imati ovakvu vrstu krova?

EM: I think eventually

EM: Mislim da će s vremenom

almost all houses will have a solar roof.

gotovo sve kuće imati solarni krov.

The thing is to consider the time scale here

Treba uzeti u obzir da će trebati

to be probably on the order

određeno vrijeme da se to ostvari,

of 40 or 50 years.

oko 40 do 50 godina.

Krov se u prosjeku zamjenjuje svakih 20 do 25 godina.

So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years.

But you don't start replacing all roofs immediately.

No, nećete odmah početi mijenjati sve krovove.

But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward

S vremenom, ako gledamo

15 godina unaprijed,

to say 15 years from now,

it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.

bit će neobično vidjeti krov bez solarnih ploča.

CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don't get here

CA: Je li problem u tome da ljudi ne razumiju kako će

that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power,

solarna energija biti ekonomična, zbog izmjene cijene,

jer većina kuća zapravo ima dovoljno sunčeve svjetlosti na krovu

most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof

pretty much to power all of their needs.

da opskrbi sve potrebe kućanstva.

If you could capture the power,

Kada biste mogli uhvatiti energiju,

it could pretty much power all their needs.

ona bi mogla opskrbljivati sve vaše potrebe.

You could go off-grid, kind of.

Mogli biste se skinuti s mreže.

EM: It depends on where you are

EM: To ovisi o vašoj lokaciji

and what the house size is relative to the roof area,

i veličini kuće u usporedbi s veličinom krova,

but it's a fair statement to say

ali mogu reći da

that most houses in the US have enough roof area

većina kuća u SAD-u ima dovoljno velike krovove

to power all the needs of the house.

da opskrbe sve potrebe kućanstva.

CA: So the key to the economics

CA: Znači, ključ isplativosti

automobila, tegljača i ovih kuća

of the cars, the Semi, of these houses

je u padu cijena litij-ionskih baterija,

is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries,

which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.

na što si stavio veliki ulog Teslom.

In many ways, that's almost the core competency.

Radi se o gotovo ključnoj sposobnosti.

And you've decided

Odlučio si da,

kako bi zaista savladao tu sposobnost,

that to really, like, own that competency,

you just have to build the world's largest manufacturing plant

moraš izgraditi najveću tvornicu na svijetu

to double the world's supply of lithium-ion batteries,

kako bi udvostručio svjetsku zalihu litij-ionskih baterija,

with this guy. What is this?

ovime. Što je ovo?

EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,

EM: Ovo je Gigatvornica,

progress so far on the Gigafactory.

dosadašnji napredak na Gigatvornici.

Eventually, you can sort of roughly see

Možete vidjeti

that there's sort of a diamond shape overall,

da ima otprilike oblik romba,

and when it's fully done, it'll look like a giant diamond,

a kada će biti dovršena, izgledat će poput golemog dijamanta,

or that's the idea behind it,

takva je barem zamisao,

and it's aligned on true north.

i okrenuta je prema stvarnom sjeveru.

It's a small detail.

To je mali detalj.

CA: And capable of producing, eventually,

CA: I moći će proizvesti

like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.

godišnje stotinu gigavat-sata baterija.

EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.

EM: Stotinu gigavat-sata. Mislimo čak i više od toga.

CA: And they're actually being produced right now.

CA: One se već sada proizvode.

EM: Već su u proizvodnji. CA: Objavili ste ovaj video.

EM: They're in production already. CA: You guys put out this video.

I mean, is that speeded up?

Je li ovo ubrzan prikaz?

EM: That's the slowed down version.

EM: Ovo je usporeni prikaz.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: Koliko brzo ide?

CA: How fast does it actually go?

EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,

EM: Kada je u najvećoj brzini,

you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light.

ne možete vidjeti ćelije bez stroboskopa.

It's just blur.

Inače je nejasno.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: Jedna od tvojih ključnih ideja oko toga što čini budućnost tako uzbudljivom

CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future

is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy.

jest budućnost u kojoj nas više ne grize savjest zbog struje.

Help us picture this.

Objasni nam to.

How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?

Koliko je Gigatvornica potrebno da se to ostvari?

EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.

EM: Otprilike stotinu njih.

It's not 10, it's not a thousand.

Ne desest, niti tisuću.

Most likely a hundred.

Najvjerojatnije sto.

CA: Mislim da je ovo čudesno.

CA: See, I find this amazing.

You can picture what it would take

Možeš zamisliti što je sve potrebno

to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing.

da se svijet udalji od fosilnih goriva.

Za izgradnju jedne tvornice,

It's like you're building one,

it costs five billion dollars,

potrebno je pet milijardi dolara,

or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.

ili recimo pet do deset milijardi dolara.

Like, it's kind of cool that you can picture that project.

Sjajno je što to uopće možeš zamisliti.

And you're planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.

Ove godine u Tesli planiraš najaviti još dvije tvornice.

EM: I think we'll announce locations

EM: Mislim da ćemo najaviti lokacije

for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year.

za dvije do četiri Gigatvornice tijekom ove godine.

Vjerojatno četiri.

Yeah, probably four.

CA: Opa!

CA: Whoa.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

No more teasing from you for here?

Nećeš nam ništa više otkriti?

Like -- where, continent?

Na primjer lokaciju, kontinent?

You can say no.

Možeš odbiti.

EM: We need to address a global market.

EM: Moramo se pozabaviti globalnim tržištem,

CA: OK.

CA: U redu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

This is cool.

To je sjajno.

I think we should talk for --

Mislim da bismo trebali govoriti --

Actually, global market.

Zapravo, pazi sad.

I'm going to ask you one question about politics, only one.

Postavit ću ti samo jedno pitanje o politici.

I'm kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this.

Muka mi je od politike, ali te zaista želim ovo pitati.

You're on a body now giving advice to a guy --

Trenutno si u odboru i savjetuješ jednog čovjeka --

EM: Who?

EM: Koga?

CA: Who has said he doesn't really believe in climate change,

CA: Koji je rekao da ne vjeruje u klimatske promjene,

i mnogo ljudi smatra da ne bi trebao to raditi.

and there's a lot of people out there who think you shouldn't be doing that.

They'd like you to walk away from that.

Žele da odustaneš od toga.

What would you say to them?

Što bi im ti poručio?

EM: Well, I think that first of all,

EM: Prije svega mislim,

I'm just on two advisory councils

član sam samo dva savjetodavna odbora

where the format consists of going around the room

koji funkcioniraju tako da se krećemo po sobi

and asking people's opinion on things,

i pitamo druge za njihovo mišljenje,

and so there's like a meeting every month or two.

i svaki mjesec ili dva imamo sastanak.

That's the sum total of my contribution.

To je sav moj doprinos.

But I think to the degree that there are people in the room

No, mislim da u toj sobi donekle ima i onih

who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change,

koji se zalažu da se napravi nešto u vezi klimatskih pomjena,

or social issues,

ili društvenih problema.

I've used the meetings I've had thus far

Dosad sam te sastanke koristio

to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.

kako bih se zalagao za imigraciju i protiv klimatskih promjena.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

And if I hadn't done that,

Da to nisam napravio,

that wasn't on the agenda before.

sada to ne bi bilo na dnevnom redu.

So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.

Možda se ništa neće dogoditi, ali barem sam izrazio svoje mišljenje.

CA: OK.

CA: U redu.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.

Pričajmo malo o SpaceX-u i Marsu.

Last time you were here,

Zadnji puta kada si bio ovdje

you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream

govorio si o nečemu što se činilo kao nevjerojatno ambiciozan san

to develop rockets that were actually reusable.

o izgradnji raketa koje bi bile višestruko upotrebljive.

And you've only gone and done it.

A tako si i napravio.

EM: Napokon. Trebalo je puno vremena.

EM: Finally. It took a long time.

CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?

CA: Pojasni nam. Što ovdje gledamo?

EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters

EM: Ovo je jedna naša pogonska raketa

coming back from very high and fast in space.

koja se velikom brzinom vraća iz velike udaljenosti u svemiru.

Gornji dio je razvio

So just delivered the upper stage

at high velocity.

veliku brzinu.

I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so,

Mislim da se kretala brzinom od oko sedam Mahova,

delivery of the upper stage.

to je razvio gornji dio.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

CA: So that was a sped-up --

CA: Ovo je bila ubrzana --

EM: That was the slowed down version.

EM: Ovo je bila usporena snimka.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: I thought that was the sped-up version.

CA: Mislio sam da je to bila ubrzana verzija.

To je zaista nevjerojatno,

But I mean, that's amazing,

and several of these failed

a nekoliko ovakvih raketa je propalo

before you finally figured out how to do it,

prije no što si napokon shvatio kako to ostvariti,

but now you've done this, what, five or six times?

a sada si to napravio već pet-šest puta?

EM: We're at eight or nine.

EM: Sada smo na osmom ili devetom testu.

CA: I po prvi puta,

CA: And for the first time,

you've actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.

upotrijebio si raketu koja je već letjela.

EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster

EM: Da, prizemljli smo pogonsku raketu

and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again,

i potom je pripremili za ponovni let i lansirali je,

so it's the first reflight of an orbital booster

tako da je to prvi ponovljeni let lansirne rakete

where that reflight is relevant.

zbog čega je taj let značajan.

So it's important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant

Treba imati na umu da je višestruka uporaba značajna samo onda

if it is rapid and complete.

kada je brza i potpuna.

So like an aircraft or a car,

Dakle, poput aviona ili auta,

the reusability is rapid and complete.

višestruka uporaba je brza i potpuna.

Ne šaljete svoj avion proizvođaču na pregled između svakog leta.

You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.

CA: Tako je. Zahvaljujući tome možete sanjariti o vrlo ambicioznoj ideji

CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea

o slanju velikog broja ljudi na Mars

of sending many, many, many people to Mars

in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.

za recimo 10 ili 20 godina.

EM: Yeah.

EM: Tako je.

CA: Ti si konstruirao tu nečuvenu raketu kako bi to ostvario.

CA: And you've designed this outrageous rocket to do it.

Help us understand the scale of this thing.

Objasni nam njene razmjere.

EM: Well, visually you can see that's a person.

EM: Možete vidjeti da je ovo osoba.

Yeah, and that's the vehicle.

A ovo je raketa.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: So if that was a skyscraper,

CA: Da je to neboder,

that's like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?

imala bi 40 katova, zar ne?

EM: Probably a little more, yeah.

EM: Vjerojatno malo više.

The thrust level of this is really --

Stupanj potiska rakete je zaista -

This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.

Ova verzija je četiri puta jača od potiska rakete Saturn V koja je letjela na Mjesec.

CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.

CA: Četiri puta jača od najjače rakete koju je izgradilo čovječanstvo.

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

EM: Tako je.

CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.

CA: Sasvim normalno. EM: Da.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

U jedinicama Boeinga 747, 747 ima oko 114 tisuća kilograma potiska,

In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,

pa za svaka 4.5 milijuna kg potiska,

so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,

there's 40 747s.

imamo 40 Boeinga 747.

So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.

Taj potisak bio bi jednak 120 Boeinga 747, sa svim upaljenim motorima.

CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth's gravity,

CA: Čak i sa strojem konstruiranim za izlazak iz Zemljine gravitacije,

I think you told me last time

mislim da si mi zadnji put rekao

this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747,

da bi ova raketa mogla vinuti nakrcani Boeing 747,

people, cargo, everything,

zajedno s ljudima, teretom, svime,

into orbit.

u orbitu.

EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,

EM: Upravo tako. Može primiti puni 747 s punim rezervoarom,

s maksimalnim brojem putnika i tereta,

maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 --

this can take it as cargo.

može ga primiti kao teret na sebe.

CA: Na osnovu toga,

CA: So based on this,

you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System

nedavno si predstavio Međuplanetarni Transportni Sustav

which is visualized this way.

koji je ovako prikazan.

Misliš da će ovaj prikaz postati stvarnost za 20 ili 30 godina?

This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time?

People walking into this rocket.

Ukrcavanje u ovu raketu.

EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame.

EM: Nadam se da će do toga doći za 8 do 10 godina.

Težimo za time, to nam je cilj.

Aspirationally, that's our target.

Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --

Naši interni ciljevi su agresivniji, no mislim --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: OK.

CA: U redu.

EM: While vehicle seems quite large

EM: Iako se raketa čini jako velika,

i velika je u odnosu na druge rakete,

and is large by comparison with other rockets,

I think the future spacecraft

mislim da će u usporedbi s budućim svemirskim letjelicama

will make this look like a rowboat.

ova izgledati kao čamac na vesla.

The future spaceships will be truly enormous.

Buduće svemirske letjelice zaista će biti goleme.

CA: Zašto, Elone?

CA: Why, Elon?

Why do we need to build a city on Mars

Zašto moramo izgraditi grad na Marsu

with a million people on it in your lifetime,

s milijun ljudi u tvom životnom vijeku?

which I think is kind of what you've said you'd love to do?

Mislim da si rekao da bi volio to ostvariti.

EM: I think it's important to have

EM: Smatram da je bitno imati

inspirativnu i privlačnu budućnost.

a future that is inspiring and appealing.

I just think there have to be reasons

Jednostavno mislim da trebamo imati razloge

that you get up in the morning and you want to live.

zbog kojih se ujutro ustajemo i živimo.

Like, why do you want to live?

Zašto želite živjeti?

Koja je svrha? Što vas nadahnjuje?

What's the point? What inspires you?

What do you love about the future?

Što vas kod budućnosti veseli?

And if we're not out there,

A ako nismo tamo,

if the future does not include being out there among the stars

ako budućnost ne uključuje našu prisutnost među zvijezdama

and being a multiplanet species,

i nas kao multiplanetarnu vrstu,

to smatram nevjerojatno depresivnim,

I find that it's incredibly depressing

if that's not the future that we're going to have.

ako to neće biti naša budućnost.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

CA: Ljudi ovo smatraju nebitnim,

CA: People want to position this as an either or,

that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now

jer se toliko užasnih stvari trenutno događa na svijetu

from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue.

od klime do siromaštva, možeš birati problem.

And this feels like a distraction.

A ovo djeluje kao nešto što odvraća pozornost.

Ne bi trebao o tome razmišljati.

You shouldn't be thinking about this.

You should be solving what's here and now.

Trebao bi rješavati postojeće probleme.

Da budem iskren, puno si toga i napravio

And to be fair, you've done a fair old bit to actually do that

svojim radom na održivoj energiji.

with your work on sustainable energy.

But why not just do that?

Zašto se ne zadržavaš samo na tome?

EM: I think there's --

EM: Mislim da ima --

I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities.

Budućnost promatram s gledišta mogućnosti.

It's like a branching stream of probabilities,

Kao neke točke od koje se granaju mogućnosti.

and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities

Određenim postupcima možemo utjecati na te mogućnosti

or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing.

bilo da ubrzaju jednu stvar ili da uspore drugu.

Mogao bih uvesti nešto novo u tu mrežu mogućnosti.

I may introduce something new to the probability stream.

Sustainable energy will happen no matter what.

Održiva energija će se sigurno ostvariti.

Da nema Tesle, da nikada nije postojala,

If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed,

it would have to happen out of necessity.

trebala bi se ostvariti iz čiste nužde.

It's tautological.

To je čista tautologija.

Ako nemate održivu energiju, to znači da imate neodrživu energiju.

If you don't have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy.

Eventually you will run out,

S vremenom ćete je istrošiti,

and the laws of economics will drive civilization

i zakoni ekonomije pogurat će civilizaciju

towards sustainable energy,

prema održivoj energiji.

inevitably.

To je neizbježno.

Temeljna vrijednost tvrtke poput Tesle

The fundamental value of a company like Tesla

jest ta do koje mjere ubrzava dolazak održive enetgije,

is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy,

faster than it would otherwise occur.

brže no što bi se ona inače pojavila.

Pa kada pomislim,

So when I think, like,

what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla,

koje je temeljno dobro tvrtke poput Tesle,

s nadom bih rekao,

I would say, hopefully,

if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade,

ako ona ubrza taj proces za desetljeće, potencijalno i više od toga,

that would be quite a good thing to occur.

to bi zaista bila vrlo dobra stvar.

That's what I consider to be

To je ono što smatram

the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.

temeljnim dobrom kojem Tesla teži.

Then there's becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization.

Zatim imamo pretvaranje u multiplanetarnu vrstu i civilizaciju koja putuje svemirom.

This is not inevitable.

To nije nešto neizbježno.

It's very important to appreciate this is not inevitable.

Treba biti svjestan da to nije neizbježno.

The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable,

Budućnost s održivom energijom uglavnom je neizbježna,

but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable.

ali rast u civilizaciju koja putuje svemirom sigurno nije neizbježna.

If you look at the progress in space,

Ako pogledate napredak u svemiru,

in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon.

godine 1969. mogli ste poslati čovjeka na Mjesec.

1969.

1969.

Then we had the Space Shuttle.

Onda smo imali Space Shuttle.

The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit.

On je mogao dovesti ljude samo u nižu zemljinu orbitu.

Then the Space Shuttle retired,

Zatim su povukli Space Shuttle,

and the United States could take no one to orbit.

i SAD više nikoga nije mogao vinuti u orbitu.

So that's the trend.

To je trend.

The trend is like down to nothing.

Trend je nazadovanje.

People are mistaken when they think

Ljudi se varaju kada misle

that technology just automatically improves.

da se tehnologija automatski poboljšava.

To nije tako.

It does not automatically improve.

Ona se jedino poboljšava ako puno ljudi naporno radi na tome da funkcionira bolje,

It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better,

and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually.

i zapravo smatram da se će ona sama po sebi unazaditi.

You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt,

Pogledajte velike civilizacije poput drevnog Egipta,

and they were able to make the pyramids,

mogli su izgraditi piramide,

and they forgot how to do that.

a onda su zaboravili tu vještinu.

And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts.

Potom Rimljani, mogli su izgraditi čudesne akvadukte.

They forgot how to do it.

Zaboravili su tu vještinu.

CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you

CA: Gotovo da se čini, kada te slušam

and looking at the different things you've done,

i kada sagledam razne stvari koje si napravio,

da imaš jedinstvenu duplu motivaciju za sve

that you've got this unique double motivation on everything

that I find so interesting.

što ja smatram zanimljivim.

One is this desire to work for humanity's long-term good.

Jedno je želja da radiš za dugoročnu dobrobit čovječanstva.

The other is the desire to do something exciting.

Drugo je želja da radiš na nečemu uzbudljivom.

And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other.

Često se čini kao da ti treba prvo kako bi ostvario drugo.

With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy,

Uz Teslu želiš imati održivu enegiju,

so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it.

pa si radi toga napravio ove izuzetno privlačne, uzbudljive aute.

Treba nam sunčeva energija,

Solar energy, we need to get there,

so we need to make these beautiful roofs.

pa zato trebamo izgraditi one divne krovove.

We haven't even spoken about your newest thing,

Nismo niti spomenuli tvoj najnoviji projekt,

za to nemamo vremena,

which we don't have time to do,

but you want to save humanity from bad AI,

no, ti želiš sačuvati čovječanstvo od loše umjetne inteligencije,

and so you're going to create this really cool brain-machine interface

stoga ćeš napraviti sjajno sučelje između mozga i stroja

to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth.

kako bi nam svima omogućio bezgranično pamćenje, telepatiju i tako dalje.

A na Marsu, čini se da želiš reći

And on Mars, it feels like what you're saying is,

yeah, we need to save humanity

da trebamo spasiti čovječanstvo

and have a backup plan,

i imati plan B,

but also we need to inspire humanity,

ali i da trebamo nadahnuti čovječanstvo,

and this is a way to inspire.

i da je to način kako da to ostvarimo.

EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration

EM: Mislim da je vrijednost ljepote i nadahnuća

is very much underrated,

vrlo podcijenjena,

no question.

to je neupitno.

No, želim biti jasan.

But I want to be clear.

I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.

Ne želim biti ničiji spasitelj.

That is not the --

To nije --

I'm just trying to think about the future

Ja samo pokušavam razmišljati o budućnosti

a da me to ne rastužuje.

and not be sad.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

CA: Beautiful statement.

CA: Prekrasna izjava.

I think everyone here would agree

Mislim da bi se svi ovdje složili

that it is not --

da to nije --

None of this is going to happen inevitably.

Ništa od ovog neće se neizbježno ostvariti.

The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff,

Činjenica da u tvom umu, da sanjaš o ovome,

you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream,

o stvarima o kojima se nitko drugi ne bi usudio sanjati,

ili nitko drugi ne bi mogao sanjati

or no one else would be capable of dreaming

at the level of complexity that you do.

tako kompleksno kao ti.

The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing.

Činjenica da ti to radiš, Elone Musk, zaista je izvanredna stvar.

Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.

Hvala ti što nam svima pomažeš sanjati veće snove.

EM: But you'll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?

EM: Reći ćeš mi ako stvari postanu zaista sulude, zar ne?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic.

CA: Hvala ti, Elone Musk. Ovo je bilo zaista fantastično.

That was really fantastic.

Zaista fantastično.

(Pljesak)

(Applause)