Sangu Delle: In praise of macro -- yes, macro -- finance in Africa

Prevodilac: Stefan Zrnović Lektor: Mile Živković

Traditional prescriptions for growth in Africa are not working very well.

Tradicionalne preporuke za razvoj u Africi ne funkcionišu baš najbolje.

After one trillion dollars in African development-related aid

Nakon jedne milijarde dolara u pomoći afričkom razvoju

in the last 60 years,

u poslednjih 60 godina

real per capita income today is lower than it was in the 1970s.

prihod po glavi stanovnika danas je niži nego što je bio 70-ih godina.

Aid is not doing too well.

Pomoć se nije baš pokazala.

In response,

Kao odgovor na to,

the Bretton Woods institutions -- the IMF and the World Bank --

Breton Vuds institucije - MMF i Svetska banka -

pushed for free trade not aid,

tražile su slobodno tržište a ne pomoć,

yet the historical record shows little empirical evidence

a istorijski primeri pokazuju malo empirijskih dokaza

that free trade leads to economic growth.

da slobodno tržište vodi do ekonomskog rasta.

The newly prescribed silver bullet is microcredit.

Novi preporučeni pristup je mikrokreditiranje.

We seem to be fixated on this romanticized idea

Izgleda da smo zatočeni u ovoj romantizovanoj ideji

that every poor peasant in Africa is an entrepreneur.

da je svaki siromašni ratar u Africi preduzetnik.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Yet my work and travel in 40-plus countries across Africa

Moj posao i putovanje u preko više od 40 država širom Afrike

have taught me that most people want jobs instead.

naučilo me je da većina ljudi želi poslove.

My solution: Forget micro-entrepreneurs.

Moje rešenje je: zaboravite mikropreduzetništvo.

Let's invest in building pan-African titans

Hajde da investiramo u građenje panafričkih gorostasa

like Sudanese businessman Mo Ibrahim.

poput sudanskog biznismena Mo Ibrahima.

Mo took a contrarian bet on Africa when he founded Celtel International in '98

Mo je uložio opozicioni ulog na Afriku kada je 1998. osnovao Celtel Internešnal

and built it into a mobile cellular provider

i pretvorio ga u moblinog operatera

with 24 million subscribers across 14 African countries by 2004.

sa 24 miliona pratilaca širom 14 afričkih zemalja do 2004. godine.

The Mo model might be better than the everyman entrepreneur model,

Moov model bi bio bolji od običnog preduzetničkog modela

which prevents an effective means of diffusion and knowledge-sharing.

koji sprečava efektne načine raspodele i deljenja znanja.

Perhaps we are not at a stage in Africa

Možda trenutno nismo u tom stadijumu u Africi

where many actors and small enterprises leads to growth through competition.

gde mnogi učesnici i mali preduzetnici dovode do razvoja kroz konkurenciju.

Consider these two alternative scenarios.

Uzmimo ova dva alternativna scenarija.

One: You loan 200 dollars to each of 500 banana farmers

Jedan: pozajmite 200 dolara svakom od 500 farmera banana

allowing them to dry their surplus bananas

omogućavajući im da suše višak svojih banana

and fetch 15 percent more revenue at the local market.

i steknu 15 procenata više prihoda na lokalnom tržištu.

Or two: You give 100,000 dollars to one savvy entrepreneur

Ili drugi: Date 100 000 dolara jednom bistrom preduzetniku

and help her set up a factory that yields 40 percent additional income

i pomognete mu da pokrene fabriku koja ostvaruje 40 posto dodatnih prihoda

to all 500 banana farmers and creates 50 additional jobs.

svim 500 farmerima banana i stvara 50 dodatnih poslova.

We invested in the second scenario,

Investirali smo u drugi scenario,

and backed 26-year-old Kenyan entrepreneur Eric Muthomi

i podržali 26-godišnjeg kenijskog preduzetnika Erika Mutomija

to set up an agro-processing factory called Stawi

da postavi fabriku za obradu po imenu Stavi

to produce gluten-free banana-based flour and baby food.

koja proizvodi neglutensku hranu, brašno na bazi banane i hranu za bebe.

Stawi is leveraging economies of scale

Stavi koristi ekonomiju reda veličine

and using modern manufacturing processes to create value for not only its owners

kao i moderne zanatske procese za stvaranje vrednosti ne samo za vlasnike

but its workers, who have an ownership in the business.

već i za radnike koji imaju udeo u poslu.

Our dream is to take an Eric Muthomi and try to help him become a Mo Ibrahim,

Naš san je da Eriku Mutomiju pokušamo da pomognemo da postane Mo Ibrahim,

which requires skill, financing, local and global partnerships,

što zahteva veštine, finansiranje, lokalna i globalna partnerstva,

and extraordinary perseverance.

i neviđenu istrajnost.

But why pan-African?

Ali zašto panafrički?

The scramble for Africa during the Berlin Conference of 1884 --

Grabljenje za Afrikom tokom Berlinske konferencije 1884. godine,

where, quite frankly, we Africans were not exactly consulted --

gde, iskreno nas Afrikance i nisu baš konsultovali -

(Laughter) (Applause) --

(Smeh) (Aplauz)

resulted in massive fragmentation

za posledicu imalo je masivne podele

and many sovereign states with small populations:

i mnoge suverene države sa malim populacijama:

Liberia, four million; Cape Verde, 500,000.

Liberija, 4 miliona; Kejp Verde, 500 000.

Pan-Africa gives you one billion people,

Panafrika vam daje jednu milijardu ljudi,

granted across 55 countries with trade barriers and other impediments,

širom 55 zemalja sa tržišnim barijerama i drugim preprekama,

but our ancestors traded across the continent

ali naš prethodinici su trgovali širom kontinenta

before Europeans drew lines around us.

pre nego što su Evropljani iscrtali granice.

The pan-African opportunities outweigh the challenges,

Panafričke mogućnosti veće su od izazova,

and that's why we're expanding Stawi's markets from just Kenya

zato širimo tržišta za Stavi, od Kenije do Alžira

to Algeria, Nigeria, Ghana, and anywhere else that will buy our food.

Nigerije, Gane i svuda gde žele da kupe našu hranu.

We hope to help solve food security, empower farmers, create jobs,

Nadamo se da ćemo rešiti nestašicu hrane, podstaknuti farmere, stvoriti poslove,

develop the local economy, and we hope to become rich in the process.

razviti lokalnu ekonomiju, i nadamo se da ćemo postati bogati u procesu.

While it's not the sexiest approach,

Iako ovo nije najatraktivniji pristup,

and maybe it doesn't achieve the same feel-good

i verovatno ne postiže isti osećaj

as giving a woman 100 dollars to buy a goat on kiva.org,

kao davanje ženi 100 dolara da kupi kozu na sajtu kiva.org,

perhaps supporting fewer, higher-impact entrepreneurs

možda podržavanje nekoliko visokouticajnih preduzetnika

to build massive businesses that scale pan-Africa

kako bi stvorili brojne poslove koji bi uvećali pan-Afriku,

can help change this.

možda ovo može da donese promenu.

The political freedom for which our forebearers fought

Politička sloboda za koju su se naši preci borili

is meaningless without economic freedom.

besmislena je bez ekonomske slobode.

We hope to aid this fight for economic freedom

Nadamo se da ćemo pomoći ovoj borbi za ekonomsku slobodu

by building world-class businesses,

građenjem poslova svetske klase,

creating indigenous wealth,

stvaranjem domorodačkog bogatstva,

providing jobs that we so desperately need,

stvaranjem poslova koji su nam očajnički neophodni,

and hopefully helping achieve this.

i verovatno pomaganjem da se postigne ovo.

Africa shall rise.

Afrika će se uzdići.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Tom Rielly: So Sangu, of course, this is strong rhetoric.

Tom Rili: Sangu, ovo je naravno, jaka retorika.

You're making 100 percent contrast between microcredit

Pravite 100-procentni kontrast između mikrokredita

and regular investment and growing regular investment.

i regularne rastuće investicije.

Do you think there is a role for microcredit at all?

Da li mislite da uopšte postoji uloga za mikrokredit?

Sangu Delle: I think there is a role.

Sangu Dele: Mislim da postoji.

Microcredit has been a great, innovative way

Mikrokredit je bio sjajan, inovativni način

to expand financial access to the bottom of the pyramid.

za širenje finansijskog pristupa do dna piramide.

But for the problems we face in Africa,

Ali za probleme sa kojima se suočavamo u Africi,

when we are looking at the Marshall Plan

kada tražimo Maršalov plan

za revitalizaciju Evrope uništene ratom,

to revitalize war-torn Europe,

it was not full of donations of sheep.

on nije bio pun donacija ovcama.

We need more than just microcredit.

Treba nam više od običnog mikrokredita.

We need more than just give 200 dollars.

Treba nam više od pukog davanja 200 dolara.

We need to build big businesses, and we need jobs.

Treba da napravimo velike poslove i trebaju nam poslovi.

TR: Very good. Thank you so much.

TR: Sjajno. Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)