Sangu Delle: In praise of macro -- yes, macro -- finance in Africa

翻译人员: Rongxin Liu 校对人员: 杏儀 歐陽

Traditional prescriptions for growth in Africa are not working very well.

传统的经济增长手段 在非洲并非那么管用。

After one trillion dollars in African development-related aid

尽管在过去的60年里，

非洲获得了过万亿美元的经济援助，

in the last 60 years,

real per capita income today is lower than it was in the 1970s.

如今实际的人均收入 比上世纪70年代还要低。

Aid is not doing too well.

援助并没有太大的帮助。

In response,

对此，

the Bretton Woods institutions -- the IMF and the World Bank --

布雷顿森林体系－ 国际货币基金组织和世界银行

pushed for free trade not aid,

推崇自由贸易，而不是经济援助，

yet the historical record shows little empirical evidence

然而历史数据表明，

没有实质证据证明 自由贸易会促进非洲的经济增长。

that free trade leads to economic growth.

The newly prescribed silver bullet is microcredit.

最新的经济增长手段是"小额贷款”。

We seem to be fixated on this romanticized idea

我们的想法似乎过分浪漫，

that every poor peasant in Africa is an entrepreneur.

以为所有非洲贫农都是创业家。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Yet my work and travel in 40-plus countries across Africa

然而，在非洲40多个国家的 工作和旅途的经验告诉我，

have taught me that most people want jobs instead.

大多数人民想要的只是就业。

My solution: Forget micro-entrepreneurs.

我（对促进经济增长）的方案是： 且将小额贷款放一边。

Let's invest in building pan-African titans

让我们投资构建 泛非洲的“巨无霸” （大型企业）

like Sudanese businessman Mo Ibrahim.

如苏丹的企业家——易卜拉欣（Mo Ibrahim）

Mo took a contrarian bet on Africa when he founded Celtel International in '98

1998年，易卜拉欣在非洲逆势而为， 成立了Celtel 国际公司，

and built it into a mobile cellular provider

并将其打造成移动运营商。

with 24 million subscribers across 14 African countries by 2004.

2004年，Celtel 已有2400万用户， 服务覆盖非洲14个国家。

The Mo model might be better than the everyman entrepreneur model,

相比于“人人都是创业家” 的模式， 易卜拉欣的创业模式也许较优。

which prevents an effective means of diffusion and knowledge-sharing.

因为大众创业模式阻碍了 有效的融合手段和知识共享。

Perhaps we are not at a stage in Africa

或许，在非洲目前所处阶段，

where many actors and small enterprises leads to growth through competition.

经济增长不是靠大量个体 和小型企业竞争而取得。

Consider these two alternative scenarios.

考虑以下两个不同的情景：

One: You loan 200 dollars to each of 500 banana farmers

情景一：你给种植香蕉的500个农民 每人贷200美元，

allowing them to dry their surplus bananas

让他们可以干燥处理剩余的香蕉，

and fetch 15 percent more revenue at the local market.

在当地市场获得15%的收入增长。

Or two: You give 100,000 dollars to one savvy entrepreneur

情景二：你把10万美元 给一个精明的企业家，

and help her set up a factory that yields 40 percent additional income

帮助她建造一个工厂， 足以给那500个种植香蕉的农民，

to all 500 banana farmers and creates 50 additional jobs.

We invested in the second scenario,

我们选择了后者，

and backed 26-year-old Kenyan entrepreneur Eric Muthomi

向一位26岁的肯尼亚企业家， Eric Muthomi 给予了投资，

to set up an agro-processing factory called Stawi

帮助他设立 Stawi 农产品加工厂。

to produce gluten-free banana-based flour and baby food.

该加工厂专门生产无麸质的 以香蕉为主的面粉和婴儿食品。

Stawi is leveraging economies of scale

Stawi 借助规模经济效应 采用现代加工生产模式，

and using modern manufacturing processes to create value for not only its owners

不仅为工厂老板创造了价值，

还为持有股份的员工创造了价值。

but its workers, who have an ownership in the business.

Our dream is to take an Eric Muthomi and try to help him become a Mo Ibrahim,

我们的梦想是帮助 Eric Muthomi， 让他成为又一位 “易卜拉欣 “。

which requires skill, financing, local and global partnerships,

这一梦想的实现，需要技术、 资金、地区与全球范围的合作、

and extraordinary perseverance.

以及非凡的毅力。

But why pan-African?

但是，为什么选择泛非洲？

The scramble for Africa during the Berlin Conference of 1884 --

1884年的柏林会议上对非洲的争夺，

where, quite frankly, we Africans were not exactly consulted --

——实话说，我们非洲人民的意见 就没有被征询过——

(Laughter) (Applause) --

（笑声）（掌声）

resulted in massive fragmentation

这导致了非洲大规模的“碎片化”，

and many sovereign states with small populations:

产生了许多人口较少的主权国家：

Liberia, four million; Cape Verde, 500,000.

利比里亚，400万人口； 佛得角，50万人口。

Pan-Africa gives you one billion people,

泛非洲有10亿人口，

granted across 55 countries with trade barriers and other impediments,

横跨了55个国家， 还有各种贸易壁垒和其它障碍。

but our ancestors traded across the continent

不过，在欧洲列强 争夺非洲、划下国界前，

before Europeans drew lines around us.

我们的祖先 在非洲大陆到处进行贸易。

The pan-African opportunities outweigh the challenges,

泛非洲的机遇大于挑战，

and that's why we're expanding Stawi's markets from just Kenya

因此，我们从肯尼亚开始 将 Stawi 的市场扩张到阿尔及利亚、

to Algeria, Nigeria, Ghana, and anywhere else that will buy our food.

尼日利亚、加纳，还有 所有会购买我们的食物的地方。

We hope to help solve food security, empower farmers, create jobs,

我们希望帮助解决食品安全问题， 改善农民生活，创造就业机会，

发展当地经济，并在此历程中致富。

develop the local economy, and we hope to become rich in the process.

While it's not the sexiest approach,

也许这不是最鲜嫩欲滴的手段，

and maybe it doesn't achieve the same feel-good

跟在 kiva.org 上借出100美元 给别人买山羊相比，

as giving a woman 100 dollars to buy a goat on kiva.org,

这可能不会给你同样的感觉。

perhaps supporting fewer, higher-impact entrepreneurs

向少数更具影响力的企业家提供帮助，

to build massive businesses that scale pan-Africa

构建大规模的企业 使其能够与泛非洲匹配，

can help change this.

或许能够帮助我们改变现状。

The political freedom for which our forebearers fought

我们先人为政治自由所作的拼搏 如果没有经济自由，就会变得徒劳。

我们先人为政治自由所作的拼搏 如果没有经济自由，就会变得徒劳。

is meaningless without economic freedom.

We hope to aid this fight for economic freedom

我们希望为争取经济自由出力，

by building world-class businesses,

致力于打造世界级的企业，

creating indigenous wealth,

创造本土财富，

providing jobs that we so desperately need,

创造我们迫切需要的就业岗位。

and hopefully helping achieve this.

与此同时也希望通过实现这些目标，

Africa shall rise.

非洲会崛起。

Thank you.

谢谢！

(Applause)

（掌声）

Tom Rielly: So Sangu, of course, this is strong rhetoric.

汤姆·赖利：桑谷，这是很强的比喻。

You're making 100 percent contrast between microcredit

你说小额贷款与普通的投资手段以及 不断增长的普通投资手段有天壤之别。

and regular investment and growing regular investment.

你说小额贷款与普通的投资手段以及 不断增长的普通投资手段有天壤之别。

Do you think there is a role for microcredit at all?

你认为小额贷款能否占一席之地？

Sangu Delle: I think there is a role.

桑谷·德尔：我认为可以。

Microcredit has been a great, innovative way

小额贷款一直是优秀创新的手段，

to expand financial access to the bottom of the pyramid.

用于为向金字塔底层的人 扩大金融活动的门槛。

But for the problems we face in Africa,

然而，我们非洲目前所面临的问题，

when we are looking at the Marshall Plan

比如说，为振兴饱受战争蹂躏的欧洲 而制定的马歇尔计划，

to revitalize war-torn Europe,

比如说，为振兴饱受战争蹂躏的欧洲 而制定的马歇尔计划，

it was not full of donations of sheep.

不只是单纯的捐赠羊群。

We need more than just microcredit.

我们需要的不仅仅是小额贷款，

We need more than just give 200 dollars.

也不是仅仅200美元的援助，

We need to build big businesses, and we need jobs.

我们需要构建大规模的企业， 需要更多的就业岗位。

TR: Very good. Thank you so much.

赖利：非常好，感谢！

(Applause)

(掌声）