Sangu Delle: In praise of macro -- yes, macro -- finance in Africa

譯者: Rongxin Liu 審譯者: 杏儀 歐陽

Traditional prescriptions for growth in Africa are not working very well.

傳統的經濟增長手段 在非洲並非那麽管用。

After one trillion dollars in African development-related aid

儘管在過去的 60 年裏，

非洲獲得了過萬億美元的經濟援助，

in the last 60 years,

real per capita income today is lower than it was in the 1970s.

如今實際的人均收入 比上世紀 70 年代還要低。

Aid is not doing too well.

援助並沒有太大的幫助。

In response,

對此，

the Bretton Woods institutions -- the IMF and the World Bank --

布雷頓森林體系－ 國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行

pushed for free trade not aid,

推崇自由貿易，而不是經濟援助，

yet the historical record shows little empirical evidence

然而歷史數據表明，

沒有實質證據證明 自由貿易會促進非洲的經濟增長。

that free trade leads to economic growth.

The newly prescribed silver bullet is microcredit.

最新的經濟增長手段是「小額貸款」。

We seem to be fixated on this romanticized idea

我們的想法似乎過分浪漫，

that every poor peasant in Africa is an entrepreneur.

以爲所有非洲貧農都是創業家。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Yet my work and travel in 40-plus countries across Africa

然而，在非洲 40 多個國家的 工作和旅途的經驗告訴我，

have taught me that most people want jobs instead.

大多數人民想要的只是就業。

My solution: Forget micro-entrepreneurs.

我（對促進經濟增長）的方案是： 且將小額貸款放一邊。

Let's invest in building pan-African titans

讓我們投資構建 泛非洲的「巨無霸」 （大型企業）

like Sudanese businessman Mo Ibrahim.

如蘇丹的企業家 — 易卜拉欣（Mo Ibrahim）

Mo took a contrarian bet on Africa when he founded Celtel International in '98

1998年，易卜拉欣在非洲逆勢而爲， 成立了Celtel 國際公司，

and built it into a mobile cellular provider

並將其打造成移動運營商。

with 24 million subscribers across 14 African countries by 2004.

2004年，Celtel 已有2400萬用戶， 服務覆蓋非洲14個國家。

The Mo model might be better than the everyman entrepreneur model,

相比于「人人都是創業家」的模式， 易卜拉欣的創業模式也許較優。

which prevents an effective means of diffusion and knowledge-sharing.

因爲大衆創業模式阻礙了 有效的融合手段和知識共享。

Perhaps we are not at a stage in Africa

或許，在非洲目前所處階段，

where many actors and small enterprises leads to growth through competition.

經濟增長不是靠大量個體 和小型企業競爭而取得。

Consider these two alternative scenarios.

考慮以下兩個不同的情景：

One: You loan 200 dollars to each of 500 banana farmers

情景一：你給種植香蕉的500個農民 每人貸200美元，

allowing them to dry their surplus bananas

讓他們可以乾燥處理剩餘的香蕉，

and fetch 15 percent more revenue at the local market.

在當地市場獲得15%的收入增長。

Or two: You give 100,000 dollars to one savvy entrepreneur

情景二：你把10萬美元 給一個精明的企業家，

and help her set up a factory that yields 40 percent additional income

幫助她建造一個工廠， 足以給那500個種植香蕉的農民，

to all 500 banana farmers and creates 50 additional jobs.

帶來額外40%的收入， 同時又創造了50個就業崗位。

We invested in the second scenario,

我們選擇了後者，

and backed 26-year-old Kenyan entrepreneur Eric Muthomi

向一位26歲的肯尼亞企業家， Eric Muthomi 給予了投資，

to set up an agro-processing factory called Stawi

幫助他設立 Stawi 農産品加工廠。

to produce gluten-free banana-based flour and baby food.

該加工廠專門生産無麩質的 以香蕉爲主的麵粉和嬰兒食品。

Stawi is leveraging economies of scale

Stawi 借助規模經濟效應 採用現代加工生産模式，

and using modern manufacturing processes to create value for not only its owners

不僅爲工廠老闆創造了價值，

還爲持有股份的員工創造了價值。

but its workers, who have an ownership in the business.

我們的夢想是幫助 Eric Muthomi， 讓他成爲又一位 「易卜拉欣 」。

Our dream is to take an Eric Muthomi and try to help him become a Mo Ibrahim,

which requires skill, financing, local and global partnerships,

這一夢想的實現，需要技術、 資金、地區與全球範圍的合作、

and extraordinary perseverance.

以及非凡的毅力。

But why pan-African?

但是，爲什麽選擇泛非洲？

The scramble for Africa during the Berlin Conference of 1884 --

1884年的柏林會議上對非洲的爭奪，

where, quite frankly, we Africans were not exactly consulted --

——實話說，我們非洲人民的意見 就沒有被徵詢過——

(Laughter) (Applause) --

（笑聲）（掌聲）

resulted in massive fragmentation

這導致了非洲大規模的「碎片化」，

and many sovereign states with small populations:

産生了許多人口較少的主權國家：

Liberia, four million; Cape Verde, 500,000.

賴比瑞亞，400萬人口； 維德角，50萬人口。

Pan-Africa gives you one billion people,

泛非洲有10億人口，

granted across 55 countries with trade barriers and other impediments,

橫跨了55個國家， 還有各種貿易壁壘和其它障礙。

but our ancestors traded across the continent

不過，在歐洲列强 爭奪非洲、劃下國界前，

before Europeans drew lines around us.

我們的祖先 就在非洲大陸到處進行貿易。

The pan-African opportunities outweigh the challenges,

泛非洲的機遇大於挑戰，

and that's why we're expanding Stawi's markets from just Kenya

因此，我們從肯亞開始 將 Stawi 的市場擴張到阿爾及利亞、

to Algeria, Nigeria, Ghana, and anywhere else that will buy our food.

奈及利亞、迦納，還有 所有會購買我們的食物的地方。

We hope to help solve food security, empower farmers, create jobs,

我們希望幫助解決食品安全問題， 改善農民生活，創造就業機會，

發展當地經濟，並在此歷程中致富。

develop the local economy, and we hope to become rich in the process.

While it's not the sexiest approach,

也許這不是最鮮嫩欲滴的手段，

and maybe it doesn't achieve the same feel-good

跟在 kiva.org 上借出100美元 給別人買山羊相比，

as giving a woman 100 dollars to buy a goat on kiva.org,

這可能不會給你同樣的感覺。

perhaps supporting fewer, higher-impact entrepreneurs

向少數更具影響力的企業家提供幫助，

to build massive businesses that scale pan-Africa

構建大規模的企業 使其能够與泛非洲匹配，

can help change this.

或許能够幫助我們改變現狀。

The political freedom for which our forebearers fought

我們先人爲政治自由所作的拼搏 如果沒有經濟自由，就會變得徒勞。

我們先人爲政治自由所作的拼搏 如果沒有經濟自由，就會變得徒勞。

is meaningless without economic freedom.

We hope to aid this fight for economic freedom

我們希望爲爭取經濟自由出力，

by building world-class businesses,

致力於打造世界級的企業，

creating indigenous wealth,

創造本土財富，

providing jobs that we so desperately need,

創造我們迫切需要的就業崗位。

and hopefully helping achieve this.

與此同時也希望通過實現這些目標，

Africa shall rise.

非洲會崛起。

Thank you.

謝謝！

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Tom Rielly: So Sangu, of course, this is strong rhetoric.

湯姆·賴利：桑穀，這是很强的比喻。

You're making 100 percent contrast between microcredit

你說小額貸款與普通的投資手段以及 不斷增長的普通投資手段有天壤之別。

and regular investment and growing regular investment.

你說小額貸款與普通的投資手段以及 不斷增長的普通投資手段有天壤之別。

Do you think there is a role for microcredit at all?

你認爲小額貸款能否占一席之地？

Sangu Delle: I think there is a role.

桑穀·德爾：我認爲可以。

Microcredit has been a great, innovative way

小額貸款一直是優秀創新的手段，

to expand financial access to the bottom of the pyramid.

用於爲向金字塔底層的人 擴大金融活動的門檻。

But for the problems we face in Africa,

然而，非洲目前所面臨的問題，

when we are looking at the Marshall Plan

比如說，爲振興飽受戰爭蹂躪的歐洲 而制定的歐洲復興計劃，

to revitalize war-torn Europe,

比如說，爲振興飽受戰爭蹂躪的歐洲 而制定的歐洲復興計劃，

it was not full of donations of sheep.

不只是單純的捐贈羊群。

We need more than just microcredit.

我們需要的不僅僅是小額貸款，

We need more than just give 200 dollars.

也不是僅僅200美元的援助，

We need to build big businesses, and we need jobs.

我們需要構建大規模的企業， 需要更多的就業崗位。

TR: Very good. Thank you so much.

賴利：非常好，感謝！

(Applause)

(掌聲）