Chris McKnett: The investment logic for sustainability

Prevodilac: Đorđe Sevkić Lektor: Mile Živković

The world is changing

Svet se menja

in some really profound ways,

na veoma značajan način,

and I worry that investors

i brine me što investitori

aren't paying enough attention

ne obraćaju dovoljno pažnje

to some of the biggest drivers of change,

na neke od najvećih pokretača promena,

especially when it comes to sustainability.

pogotovo na polju održivosti.

And by sustainability, I mean the really juicy things,

Pod tim mislim na stvarno sočne stvari

like environmental and social issues

kao društvena i ekološka pitanja

and corporate governance.

i upravljanje korporacijama.

I think it's reckless to ignore these things,

Mislim da je nemarno ignorisati te stvari

because doing so can jeopardize

jer to može da ugrozi

future long-term returns.

buduće dugoročne zarade.

And here's something that may surprise you:

Ovo će vas možda iznenaditi:

the balance of power to really influence sustainability

ravnoteža moći koja utiče na održivost

rests with institutional investors,

zavisi od institucionalnih investitora,

the large investors like pension funds,

velikih investitora, kao što su penzioni fondovi,

foundations and endowments.

fondacije i zadužbine.

I believe that sustainable investing

Verujem da je održivo investiranje

is less complicated than you think,

jednostavnije nego što mislite,

better-performing than you believe,

efikasnije nego što verujete,

and more important than we can imagine.

i važnije nego što možemo zamisliti.

Let me remind you what we already know.

Da vas podsetim šta već znamo.

We have a population that's both growing and aging;

Imamo populaciju koja se umnožava i stari;

we have seven billion souls today

imamo sedam milijardi duša danas

heading to 10 billion

koja raste na 10 milijardi

at the end of the century;

pri kraju veka;

we consume natural resources

trošimo prirodne resurse

faster than they can be replenished;

brže nego što se mogu obnoviti;

and the emissions that are mainly responsible

i emisije koje su pretežno odgovorne

for climate change just keep increasing.

za klimatske promene nastavljaju s rastom.

Now clearly, these are environmental and social issues,

Ovo su, očito, društvena i ekološka pitanja,

but that's not all.

ali to nije sve.

They're economic issues,

To su i ekonomska pitanja,

and that makes them relevant

i to ih čini relevantnim

to risk and return.

za rizik i povrat novca.

And they are really complex

To su kompleksna pitanja

and they can seem really far off,

koja izgledaju zaista različita,

that the temptation may be to do this:

pa iskušenje može biti da se uradi ovo:

bury our heads in the sand and not think about it.

zakopamo glave u pesak i ne mislimo na to.

Resist this, if you can. Don't do this at home.

Ako možete, oduprite se ovome.

Ne radite ovo kod kuće. (Smeh)

(Laughter)

But it makes me wonder

To me tera da razmislim

if the investment rules of today

da li su današnja pravila ulaganja

are fit for purpose tomorrow.

svrsishodna za budućnost.

We know that investors,

Znamo da investitori,

when they look at a company and decide whether to invest,

kada procenjuju potencijalnu investiciju,

they look at financial data,

gledaju finansijske podatke,

metrics like sales growth, cash flow, market share,

kao rast prodaje, tok novca, tržišni udeo,

valuation -- you know, the really sexy stuff.

procene - znate, veoma seksi stvari.

And these things are fundamental, of course,

Ove stvari su naravno fundamentalne,

but they're not enough.

ali nisu dovoljne.

Investors should also look at performance metrics

Ulagači bi trebalo da obrate pažnju

in what we call ESG:

i na podatke učinka koje zovemo EDU:

environment, social and governance.

Ekološki, Društveni i Upravni.

Environment includes energy consumption,

Ekološki uključuje potrošnju energije,

water availability, waste and pollution,

dostupnost vode,

otpad i zagađenje,

just making efficient uses of resources.

što efikasniju upotrebu resursa.

Social includes human capital,

Društveno uključuje ljudski kapital,

things like employee engagement

kao što su angažovanje zaposlenih

and innovation capacity,

i sposobnost inovacije,

as well as supply chain management

kao i upravljanje lancem nabavke

and labor rights and human rights.

i radnička i ljudska prava.

And governance relates to the oversight

Upravni se vezuje za nadzor kompanija

of companies by their boards and investors.

od strane njihovih odbora i ulagača.

See, I told you this is the really juicy stuff.

Vidite, rekao sam vam da su ovo

veoma sočne stvari.

But ESG is the measure of sustainability,

Ali EDU je mera održivosti.

and sustainable investing incorporates ESG factors

A održivo ulaganje uključuje EDU faktore

with financial factors into the investment process.

u investicioni proces.

It means limiting future risk

To znači limitiranje budućeg rizika

by minimizing harm to people and planet,

minimiziranjem štete za ljude i planetu,

and it means providing capital to users

i znači pružanje kapitala onima

who deploy it towards productive

koji ga primenjuju u produktivnim

and sustainable outcomes.

i održivim ishodima.

So if sustainability matters financially today,

Ako održivost znači finansijski danas,

and all signs indicate more tomorrow,

a svi indikatori kažu još više sutra,

is the private sector paying attention?

da li privatni sektor obraća pažnju?

Well, the really cool thing is that most CEOs are.

Pa stvarno kul stvar je da

većina generalnih direktora to i radi.

Počeli su da gledaju na održivost

They started to see sustainability

not just as important but crucial to business success.

ne kao važnu, već kao ključnu

za poslovni uspeh.

About 80 percent of global CEOs

Oko 80% svetskih generalnih direktora

see sustainability as the root to growth in innovation

vidi održivost kao osnovu rasta u inovaciji

and leading to competitive advantage

i put ka konkurentnoj prednosti

in their industries.

u njihovim industrijama.

But 93 percent see ESG as the future,

Ali 93% vidi EDU kao budućnost,

or as important to the future of their business.

ili kao važno za budućnost njihovog posla.

So the views of CEOs are clear.

Znači, stav generalnih direktora je jasan.

There's tremendous opportunity in sustainability.

Postoji ogromna šansa u održivosti.

So how are companies actually leveraging ESG

Kako kompanije usklađuju EDU

to drive hard business results?

za postizanje poslovnih rezultata?

One example is near and dear to our hearts.

Jedan primer nam je posebno drag.

In 2012, State Street migrated 54 applications

2012, "Stejt Strit" je preneo 54 aplikacije

to the cloud environment,

na klaud okruženje,

and we retired another 85.

i "penzionisali" smo još 85.

We virtualized our operating system environments,

Virtualizovali smo operativne sisteme,

and we completed numerous automation projects.

i završili mnoge projekte automatizacije.

Now these initiatives create a more mobile workplace,

Ove inicijative stvaraju mobilnije radno okruženje,

and they reduce our real estate footprint,

i umanjuju otisak naših nekretnina,

and they yield savings of 23 million dollars

i donose uštedu od 23 miliona dolara

in operating costs annually,

u operativnim troškovima godišnje,

and avoid the emissions

i izbegavaju emisiju

of a 100,000 metric tons of carbon.

od 100.000 metričkih tona CO2.

That's the equivalent of taking 21,000 cars

To je isto kao uklanjanje 21.000 kola

off the road.

sa puta.

So awesome, right?

Strava, zar ne?

Another example is Pentair.

Još jedan primer je Pentair.

Pentair is a U.S. industrial conglomerate,

Pentair is industrijski konglomerat u SAD,

and about a decade ago,

i pre deset godina,

they sold their core power tools business

prodali su osnovni posao električnih alata

and reinvested those proceeds in a water business.

i uložili novac u posao sa vodom.

That's a really big bet. Why did they do that?

To je ogromna kocka. Zašto su to uradili?

Well, with apologies to the Home Improvement fans,

Pa, uz izvinjenje fanovima filozofije "Uradi Sam",

there's more growth in water than in power tools,

rast posla sa vodom je veći od električnih alata,

and this company has their sights set

a ova kompanija se namerila

on what they call "the new New World."

na ono što zovu "novi Novi Svet".

That's four billion middle class people

To je 4 milijarde ljudi srednje klase

demanding food, energy and water.

koji traže hranu, energiju i vodu.

Now, you may be asking yourself,

Sada se možete upitati,

are these just isolated cases?

da li su ovo samo izolovani slučajevi?

I mean, come on, really?

Mislim, stvarno?

Do companies that take sustainability into account

Da li kompanije koje održivost shvataju ozbiljno

really do well financially?

stvarno dobro prolaze finansijski?

The answer that may surprise you is yes.

Iznenađujući odgovor je: da.

The data shows that stocks with better ESG performance

Podaci kažu da akcije sa boljim EDU-om

perform just as well as others.

donose jednako dobro kao i ostale.

In blue, we see the MSCI World.

Plavo pokazuje MSCI World.

It's an index of large companies

To je indeks velikih kompanija

from developed markets across the world.

sa razvijenih tržišta širom sveta.

And in gold, we see a subset of companies

Zlatno pokazuje podskup kompanija

rated as having the best ESG performance.

rangiranih kao najbolje sa EDU učinkom.

Over three plus years, no performance tradeoff.

Više od 3 godine, bez kompromisa u učinku.

So that's okay, right? We want more. I want more.

To je dobro, zar ne? Želimo više. Ja želim više.

In some cases, there may be outperformance

U nekim slučajevima postoji

from ESG.

slabiji učinak EDU-a.

In blue, we see the performance

Plavo pokazuje učinak

of the 500 largest global companies,

500 najvećih svetskih kompanija,

and in gold, we see a subset of companies

zlatno pokazuje podskup kompanija

with best practice in climate change strategy

sa najboljim praksama u ekologiji

and risk management.

i upravljanju rizicima.

Now over almost eight years,

Tokom skoro 8 godina,

they've outperformed by about two thirds.

oni imaju bolji učinak za oko dve trećine.

So yes, this is correlation. It's not causation.

Da, postoji neuzročna povezanost.

But it does illustrate that environmental leadership

Ovo pokazuje da je ekološko liderstvo

is compatible with good returns.

kompatibilno sa dobrim zaradama.

So if the returns are the same or better

Ako su zarade iste ili bolje

and the planet benefits, wouldn't this be the norm?

i planeta ima koristi, zar to ne bi trebalo biti pravilo?

Are investors, particularly institutional investors,

Jesu li investitori,

pogotovo oni institucionalni, angažovani?

engaged?

Well, some are,

Pa, neki jesu,

and a few are really at the vanguard.

a neki su stvarno pioniri.

Hesta.

Hesta.

Hesta is a retirement fund for health

Hesta je penzioni fond za zdravstvene

and community services employees in Australia,

i društvene radnike u Australiji,

with assets of 22 billion [dollars].

sa imovinom od 22 milijarde dolara.

They believe that ESG has the potential

Oni veruju da EDU ima potencijal

to impact risks and returns,

da utiče na rizike i zarade,

so incorporating it into the investment process

pa uključivanje EDU-a u proces ulaganja

is core to their duty

je osnova njihove obaveze da delaju

to act in the best interest of fund members,

u najboljem interesu svojih članova,

core to their duty.

osnova njihove obaveze.

You gotta love the Aussies, right?

Moraš voleti Australijance, zar ne?

CalPERS is another example.

CalPERS je drugi primer.

CalPERS is the pension fund

CalPERS je penzioni fond

for public employees in California,

za radnike javnih firmi u Kaliforniji,

and with assets of 244 billion [dollars],

sa imovinom od 244 milijarde dolara,

they are the second largest in the U.S.

drugi najveći u SAD

and the sixth largest in the world.

i šesti najveći u svetu.

Now, they're moving toward 100 percent

Oni napreduju prema stopostotnom

sustainable investment

održivom investiranju

by systematically integrated ESG

sistematski integrišući EDU

across the entire fund.

kroz ceo fond.

Why? They believe it's critical

Zašto? Oni veruju da je to ključno

to superior long-term returns, full stop.

za superiorne dugoročne zarade, tačka.

In their own words, "long-term value creation

Njihovim rečima: "stvaranje dugoročne vrednosti

requires the effective management

traži efikasno upravljanje

of three forms of capital:

tri vrste kapitala:

financial, human, and physical.

finansijskog, ljudskog, i fizičkog.

This is why we are concerned with ESG."

Zato mi brinemo o EDU."

Now, I do speak to a lot of investors

Deo mog posla

as part of my job,

je da govorim pred mnogim ulagačima

and not all of them see it this way.

i nemaju svi ovakve stavove.

Often I hear, "We are required to maximize returns,

Često čujem: "Obavezni smo da uvećamo zarade,

so we don't do that here,"

tako da mi to ovde ne radimo",

or, "We don't want to use the portfolio

ili "nećemo da koristimo portfelj

to make policy statements."

za političke iskaze."

The one that just really gets under my skin is,

Ono što me stvarno nervira, je:

"If you want to do something about that,

"Ako hoćeš da nešto uradiš po tom pitanju,

just make money, give the profits to charities."

stvori novac i daj ga u dobrotvorne svrhe."

It's eyes rolling, eyes rolling.

Sledi prevrtanje očima.

I mean, let me clarify something right here.

Mislim, da pojasnim nešto ovde.

Companies and investors are not

Kompanije i investitori nisu

singularly responsible for the fate of the planet.

jedini odgovorni za sudbinu planete.

They don't have indefinite social obligations,

Oni nemaju beskonačne društvene obaveze,

and prudent investing and finance theory

i mudro ulaganje i finansijska teorija

aren't subordinate to sustainability.

nisu podređene održivosti.

They're compatible.

One su kompatibilne.

So I'm not talking about tradeoffs here.

Ne pričam o kompromisu ovde.

But institutional investors

Institucionalni investitori

are the x-factor in sustainability.

su x-faktor održivosti.

Why do they hold the key?

Zašto su oni ključni?

The answer, quite simply, is, they have the money.

Odgovor je jednostavan, oni imaju novac.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

A lot of it.

Mnogo novca.

I mean, a really lot of it.

Mislim, stvarno mnogo novca.

The global stock market is worth 55 trillion dollars.

Svetsko tržište akcija vredi 55 biliona dolara

The global bond market, 78 trillion.

Svetsko tržište obveznica, 78 biliona.

That's 133 trillion combined.

Ukupno, 133 biliona.

That's eight and a half times the GDP of the U.S.

To je 8,5 puta više od BDP SAD-a.

That's the world's largest economy.

To je najveća svetska ekonomija.

That's some serious freaking firepower.

To je ozbiljno velika vatrena moć.

So we can reconsider

Možemo preispitati

some of these pressing challenges,

neke od ovih hitnih izazova,

like fresh water, clean air,

kao što su sveža voda, čist vazduh,

feeding 10 billion mouths,

hranjenje 10 milijardi usta,

if institutional investors

ako institucionalni investitori

integrated ESG into investment.

integrišu EDU u investiranje.

What if they used that firepower

Šta ako bi oni upotrebili tu vatrenu moć

to allocate more of their capital

da dodele više svog kapitala

to companies working the hardest

kompanijama koje najviše rade

at solving these challenges

na rešavanju tih izazova

or at least not exacerbating them?

ili ih makar ne pogoršavaju?

What if we work and save and invest,

Šta ako mi radimo i štedimo i ulažemo,

only to find that the world we retire into

samo da bi se penzionisali u jedan

is more stressed and less secure than it is now?

stresniji i nesigurniji svet nego što je sad?

What if there isn't enough clean air and fresh water?

Šta ako ne bude dovoljno

čistog vazduha i vode?

Now a fair question might be,

Pošteno bi bilo zapitati se

what if all this sustainability risk stuff

šta ako je cela ta priča o održivosti

is exaggerated, overstated, it's not urgent,

preterana, prenaglašena, ishitrena,

something for virtuous consumers

nešto za moralne potrošače

or lifestyle choice?

ili izbor načina života?

Well, President John F. Kennedy said something

Pa, Džon F. Kenedi je rekao nešto

about this that is just spot on:

tačno o tome:

"There are risks and costs to a program of action,

"Postoje rizik i cena programa akcije,

but they are far less than the long-range risks

ali su oni mnogo manji nego

and costs of comfortable inaction."

dugoročni rizici i cena ležernog mirovanja."

I can appreciate that there is estimation risk in this,

Razumem da ovde postoji procena rizika,

but since this is based on widespread scientific consensus,

Ali pošto je ona bazirana na

rasprostranjenom naučnom koncenzusu,

the odds that it's not completely wrong

šanse da on nije skroz pogrešan

are better than the odds

su veće nego one

that our house will burn down

da će nam kuća izgoreti

or we'll get in a car accident.

ili da ćemo doživeti automobilski udes.

Well, maybe not if you live in Boston. (Laughter)

Pa, možda ne ako živite u Bostonu. (Smeh)

But my point is that we buy insurance

Moja poenta je da kupujemo osiguranje

to protect ourselves financially

da sebe zaštitimo finansijski

in case those things happen, right?

u tim slučajevima, zar ne?

So by investing sustainably

Održivim ulaganjem

we're doing two things.

radimo dve stvari.

We're creating insurance,

Stvaramo osiguranje, umanjujući rizik

reducing the risk to our planet and to our economy,

za našu planetu i našu ekonomiju,

and at the same time, in the short term,

a u isto vreme, kratkoročno,

we're not sacrificing performance.

ne žrtvujemo učinak.

[Man in comic: "What if it's a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing?"]

[Čovek u stripu: "Šta ako je to velika prevara i stvaramo bolji svet nizašta?"]

Good, you like it. I like it too.

Dobro, sviđa vam se. I meni, takođe.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I like it because it pokes fun

Sviđa mi se jer udara na šalu

at both sides of the climate change issue.

sa obe strane ekoloških pitanja.

I bet you can't guess which side I'm on.

Sigurno ne znate na kojoj sam ja strani.

But what I really like about it

Ovde najviše volim što me podseća

is that it reminds me of something Mark Twain said,

na nešto što je Mark Tven jednom rekao,

which is, "Plan for the future,

a to je: "Planiraj za budućnost,

because that's where you're going to spend

jer to je ono što ćeš trošiti

the rest of your life."

do kraja svog života."

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)