Chris McKnett: The investment logic for sustainability

翻译人员: Rong Han 校对人员: Li Li

The world is changing

这世界正在发生

in some really profound ways,

某些翻天覆地的变化，

and I worry that investors

而我担心的是投资者们

aren't paying enough attention

并没有充分注意到

to some of the biggest drivers of change,

那些引起这些变化的最主要的驱动因素，

especially when it comes to sustainability.

尤其是在可持续性发展方面。

And by sustainability, I mean the really juicy things,

说到可持续发展， 我指的是那些最有意思的东西，

like environmental and social issues

例如环境问题和社会问题，

and corporate governance.

还有公司的管理。

I think it's reckless to ignore these things,

我觉得这些问题是不容忽视的，

because doing so can jeopardize

因为忽视它们很可能会危害到

future long-term returns.

未来的长期回报。

And here's something that may surprise you:

下面我要说的可能会让你感到惊讶：

the balance of power to really influence sustainability

最能影响可持续性的权力平衡

rests with institutional investors,

掌握在机构投资者的手中，

the large investors like pension funds,

那些大型投资者，比如养老基金，

foundations and endowments.

基金会和捐赠基金。

I believe that sustainable investing

我相信可持续性的投资

is less complicated than you think,

没有你想的那么复杂，

better-performing than you believe,

比你预计的回报率还高，

and more important than we can imagine.

也比我们想像得更重要。

Let me remind you what we already know.

先来回顾一下我们已知的一些事情：

We have a population that's both growing and aging;

世界人口正在不断增长和老龄化，

we have seven billion souls today

现在有 70 亿人，

heading to 10 billion

到了21世纪末

at the end of the century;

将逼近100亿；

we consume natural resources

我们消耗天然资源的速度

faster than they can be replenished;

快于它们能重新生成的速度；

and the emissions that are mainly responsible

而废气排放总在不断地增加，

for climate change just keep increasing.

这是造成气候变化的主要原因。

Now clearly, these are environmental and social issues,

显然，这里有环境问题和社会问题，

but that's not all.

但这还不是全部，

They're economic issues,

这里还有经济问题，

and that makes them relevant

所以就与

to risk and return.

风险和投资回报息息相关。

And they are really complex

这些问题确实相当复杂，

and they can seem really far off,

又似乎离我们很遥远，

that the temptation may be to do this:

这就诱使我们这样做：

bury our heads in the sand and not think about it.

把头埋进沙子里而不去想这件事。

Resist this, if you can. Don't do this at home.

千万不要在家里做这个。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But it makes me wonder

if the investment rules of today

当前的投资规则是否

are fit for purpose tomorrow.

真的适用于将来。

We know that investors,

我们知道当投资者们

when they look at a company and decide whether to invest,

观察一家公司并决定是否进行投资时，

they look at financial data,

他们会关注那些财务数据，

metrics like sales growth, cash flow, market share,

例如销售增长、 现金流量、

市场份额以及资产估值等指标，

valuation -- you know, the really sexy stuff.

就是那些很“性感”的东西。

And these things are fundamental, of course,

这些东西当然是最基本的，

but they're not enough.

但还不够，

Investors should also look at performance metrics

投资者们还应关注另一方面的绩效指标，

in what we call ESG:

就是我们称为ESG的方面：

environment, social and governance.

(E)环境、 (S)社会和(G)管理

Environment includes energy consumption,

环境包括能源消耗、

water availability, waste and pollution,

水的供应、

垃圾和污染，

just making efficient uses of resources.

指的是对资源的有效使用。

Social includes human capital,

社会包括人力资本，

things like employee engagement

比如员工的积极性

and innovation capacity,

和创新能力，

as well as supply chain management

以及供应链管理，

and labor rights and human rights.

劳动权和人权。

And governance relates to the oversight

而管理则代表

of companies by their boards and investors.

董事会和投资人对公司的监督。

See, I told you this is the really juicy stuff.

瞧，我说过这是真正有意思的东西。

But ESG is the measure of sustainability,

ESG 是用来衡量可持续性的，

and sustainable investing incorporates ESG factors

而可持续性投资应当把ESG因素

with financial factors into the investment process.

与金融因素融合到投资过程中去。

It means limiting future risk

这意味着要通过降低对人和地球的危害，

by minimizing harm to people and planet,

来降低未来的风险。

and it means providing capital to users

这也意味着向用户提供资本

who deploy it towards productive

使他们用于有益

and sustainable outcomes.

而且具有可持续性的成果。

So if sustainability matters financially today,

如果可持续性影响着今天的财政，

and all signs indicate more tomorrow,

而所有的迹象都表明 将来这种影响会更大，

is the private sector paying attention?

那私营部门注意到了吗？

Well, the really cool thing is that most CEOs are.

很酷的是大多数 CEO 都注意到了。

They started to see sustainability

他们开始看到可持续性

not just as important but crucial to business success.

不仅重要而且是业务成功的关键。

About 80 percent of global CEOs

全球大约 80%的CEO

see sustainability as the root to growth in innovation

意识到可持续性是创新发展的根本，

and leading to competitive advantage

而且能使他们在同行业中具有竞争优势。

in their industries.

But 93 percent see ESG as the future,

93%认为ESG是未来的发展趋势，

or as important to the future of their business.

或者对未来业务发展很重要。

So the views of CEOs are clear.

所以CEO们的意见很明确了，

There's tremendous opportunity in sustainability.

就是在可持续发展方面有巨大的机会。

So how are companies actually leveraging ESG

那公司实际上要如何利用 ESG

to drive hard business results?

来提高经营效益呢？

One example is near and dear to our hearts.

举一个和我们最接近的例子。

In 2012, State Street migrated 54 applications

2012 年，道富集团将54个应用程序

to the cloud environment,

迁移到云环境中，

and we retired another 85.

另外还取消了85个。

We virtualized our operating system environments,

我们将操作系统环境虚拟化，

and we completed numerous automation projects.

并且完成了许多自动化项目。

Now these initiatives create a more mobile workplace,

现在这些做法创建了更灵活的工作场所，

and they reduce our real estate footprint,

减少了办公用地，

and they yield savings of 23 million dollars

每年节约了2300 万美金的营运成本，

in operating costs annually,

and avoid the emissions

减少了100 万吨碳的废气排放，

of a 100,000 metric tons of carbon.

That's the equivalent of taking 21,000 cars

相当于路上少跑了21,000辆汽车。

off the road.

So awesome, right?

很棒，对吧？

Another example is Pentair.

另一个例子是滨特尔。

Pentair is a U.S. industrial conglomerate,

滨特尔是美国的工业集团。

and about a decade ago,

大约 10 年前，

they sold their core power tools business

他们卖掉了他们的核心电动工具业务，

and reinvested those proceeds in a water business.

并把这些收益重新投资在

水业务上。

That's a really big bet. Why did they do that?

这是一个很大的赌注。他们为什么做呢?

Well, with apologies to the Home Improvement fans,

虽然很多人热衷于自己动手装修房子，

there's more growth in water than in power tools,

但是水业务比电动工具增长得更多。

and this company has their sights set

这家公司将他们的目光

on what they call "the new New World."

放在了他们所说的"新新世界"上，

That's four billion middle class people

就是有40 亿的中产阶层人士

demanding food, energy and water.

需要粮食、 能源和水。

Now, you may be asking yourself,

现在你可能会想，

are these just isolated cases?

这些只是个别的例子吗？

I mean, come on, really?

真是这样的吗？

Do companies that take sustainability into account

那些考虑到可持续发展的公司，

really do well financially?

真的在财政效益上也发展良好吗？

The answer that may surprise you is yes.

可能会让你惊讶的是，答案是肯定的。

The data shows that stocks with better ESG performance

数据显示 那些 ESG方面表现良好的公司的股票

perform just as well as others.

和其他公司的表现一样好。

In blue, we see the MSCI World.

蓝色代表的是全世界的MSCI，

It's an index of large companies

它是世界各地发达市场中

from developed markets across the world.

大公司的一项索引。

And in gold, we see a subset of companies

而金色代表那些

rated as having the best ESG performance.

具有ESG方面表现最佳的公司。

Over three plus years, no performance tradeoff.

在三年多的时间里， 经济效益方面没有受损。

So that's okay, right? We want more. I want more.

这已经很好了吧？ 但我们想要更好，我想要更好。

In some cases, there may be outperformance

在某些情况下，

from ESG.

ESG可能会带来额外的收益。

In blue, we see the performance

蓝色代表全球500家最大的公司 的经济效益，

of the 500 largest global companies,

and in gold, we see a subset of companies

with best practice in climate change strategy

在气候变化战略

and risk management.

和风险管理方面表现最好的公司。

Now over almost eight years,

经过近八年的时间，

they've outperformed by about two thirds.

他们的经济效益已经超出大约三分之二。

So yes, this is correlation. It's not causation.

虽然这里显示的是相关性 而不是因果关系，

But it does illustrate that environmental leadership

但它确实说明注重环境问题

is compatible with good returns.

和高效益并不矛盾。

So if the returns are the same or better

如果效益相同或更好，

and the planet benefits, wouldn't this be the norm?

而我们的星球还能受益，

难道这不应该成为常规吗？

Are investors, particularly institutional investors,

那么投资者们，尤其是机构投资者们，

engaged?

参与进来了吗？

Well, some are,

有些已经参与进来了，

and a few are really at the vanguard.

有几个还是先锋。

Hesta.

Hesta。

Hesta is a retirement fund for health

Hesta 是澳大利亚的一家退休基金，

and community services employees in Australia,

服务于医疗和社区服务人员。

with assets of 22 billion [dollars].

他们的资产为220亿【美元】。

They believe that ESG has the potential

他们相信ESG有潜力

to impact risks and returns,

影响风险和回报，

so incorporating it into the investment process

所以他们把将ESG 纳入投资过程

is core to their duty

作为他们的核心职责，

to act in the best interest of fund members,

以达到为基金成员谋取最佳利益的目的。

core to their duty.

他们的核心职责！

You gotta love the Aussies, right?

澳大利亚人是不是很可爱？

CalPERS is another example.

CalPERS 是另一个例子。

CalPERS is the pension fund

CalPERS 是加州公务员的养老基金，

for public employees in California,

and with assets of 244 billion [dollars],

资产达2440亿【美元】，

they are the second largest in the U.S.

排在美国第二大，

and the sixth largest in the world.

世界第六大。

Now, they're moving toward 100 percent

现在，他们正朝着 100%

sustainable investment

可持续性投资的方向转变，

by systematically integrated ESG

他们要通过系统地将ESG

across the entire fund.

整合到整个基金中来实现。

Why? They believe it's critical

为什么呢？他们相信

to superior long-term returns, full stop.

这是获得长期高效益的关键。就这样。

In their own words, "long-term value creation

用他们自己的话来说： "创造长期的价值，

requires the effective management

需要有效地管理

of three forms of capital:

三种形式的资本：

financial, human, and physical.

财务、 人力和物理。

This is why we are concerned with ESG."

这就是我们为什么关心ESG。“

Now, I do speak to a lot of investors

我跟很多投资者交谈过，

as part of my job,

因为这是我工作的一部分。

and not all of them see it this way.

并不是所有人都这样看问题。

Often I hear, "We are required to maximize returns,

我经常听到的是， "我们需要将回报最大化，

so we don't do that here,"

所以我们这儿不做这些。"

or, "We don't want to use the portfolio

或者，"我们不想用公司的投资组合

to make policy statements."

做政策方面的声明"。

The one that just really gets under my skin is,

最让我受不了的是，

"If you want to do something about that,

"如果你想在这方面做点儿什么，

just make money, give the profits to charities."

就去赚钱，然后把收益捐给慈善机构。”

It's eyes rolling, eyes rolling.

气得我直翻白眼。

I mean, let me clarify something right here.

让我来澄清一下我的意思。

Companies and investors are not

公司和投资者都不能

singularly responsible for the fate of the planet.

靠他们单独的力量来负责地球的命运。

They don't have indefinite social obligations,

他们没有无限的社会义务，

and prudent investing and finance theory

而且审慎的投资和金融理论

aren't subordinate to sustainability.

并不是要让位给可持续性，

They're compatible.

他们是相容的。

So I'm not talking about tradeoffs here.

所以我不是说要作某种牺牲。

But institutional investors

但机构投资者

are the x-factor in sustainability.

是可持续发展中最重要的因素。

Why do they hold the key?

他们为什么这么关键呢？

The answer, quite simply, is, they have the money.

答案很简单，就是他们有钱。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

A lot of it.

很多钱。

I mean, a really lot of it.

真的很多。

The global stock market is worth 55 trillion dollars.

全球证券市场价值 55万亿美元，

The global bond market, 78 trillion.

全球债券市场，78万亿。

That's 133 trillion combined.

这合起来就是133万亿，

That's eight and a half times the GDP of the U.S.

是美国GDP的八倍半，

That's the world's largest economy.

这是世界最大的经济体。

That's some serious freaking firepower.

这真是一些强大到变态的经济火力。

So we can reconsider

所以我们可以重新考虑

some of these pressing challenges,

一些比较紧迫的问题，

like fresh water, clean air,

比如说新鲜的水、 清洁的空气、

feeding 10 billion mouths,

喂饱100 亿张嘴，

if institutional investors

如果机构投资者

integrated ESG into investment.

能把ESG 综合到投资中去的话。

What if they used that firepower

他们能不能利用那些火力，

to allocate more of their capital

将更多的资本分配到

to companies working the hardest

那些最努力解决这些问题的公司，

at solving these challenges

or at least not exacerbating them?

或至少是没有使这些问题加重的公司？

What if we work and save and invest,

如果我们工作，攒钱，投资，

only to find that the world we retire into

而到头来退休的时候却发现那时的世界

is more stressed and less secure than it is now?

比现在压力更大，更不安全呢？

What if there isn't enough clean air and fresh water?

如果那时没有足够的清洁空气 和新鲜水呢？

Now a fair question might be,

有一个可能的问题，

what if all this sustainability risk stuff

这些所谓可持续性的风险的东西

is exaggerated, overstated, it's not urgent,

是不是被过分夸大了？

它也许本来不是紧迫的问题，

something for virtuous consumers

而只是供那些善良的消费者 做生活方式上的选择的？

or lifestyle choice?

Well, President John F. Kennedy said something

肯尼迪总统说过一句话，

about this that is just spot on:

用在这里最合适不过：

"There are risks and costs to a program of action,

"采取行动就会有风险和成本，

but they are far less than the long-range risks

但长远来说要远远低于

and costs of comfortable inaction."

为了舒适而不行动的风险和成本。“

I can appreciate that there is estimation risk in this,

我知道这里面有估计的风险，

but since this is based on widespread scientific consensus,

但是因为这些估计基于广泛的科学共识，

the odds that it's not completely wrong

它并不完全错的几率，

are better than the odds

比我们遇上房子着火

that our house will burn down

or we'll get in a car accident.

或者车祸的几率要小。

Well, maybe not if you live in Boston. (Laughter)

当然，除非你住在波士顿。（笑声）

But my point is that we buy insurance

但我想说的是，我们买保险

to protect ourselves financially

来保护自己的财产，

in case those things happen, right?

以防那些事情发生，对吧？

So by investing sustainably

而通过可持续性投资，

we're doing two things.

我们可以达到两个目的。

We're creating insurance,

我们创造了一个保险，

reducing the risk to our planet and to our economy,

降低对我们的星球和经济的风险。

and at the same time, in the short term,

同时，在短期内，

we're not sacrificing performance.

我们也不牺牲效益。

[Man in comic: "What if it's a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing?"]

【漫画中的人："如果这是一个大骗局，

我们除了创造出一个更美好的世界， 什么也没得到呢?"】

你喜欢它吧？我也喜欢。

Good, you like it. I like it too.

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I like it because it pokes fun

我喜欢它是因为它把

at both sides of the climate change issue.

气候变化问题争论的双方都拿来开玩笑。

I bet you can't guess which side I'm on.

我打赌你猜不出我站在哪一边。

But what I really like about it

但我真正喜欢它的原因

is that it reminds me of something Mark Twain said,

是它让我想起马克 · 吐温说的话，

which is, "Plan for the future,

"好好计划未来，

because that's where you're going to spend

因为那是你要度过余生的地方。"

the rest of your life."

Thank you.

谢谢。

（掌声）

(Applause)