Rory Sutherland: Perspective is everything

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Tatjana Jevdjic Lektor: Branislav Ivkovic

What you have here

Ovo ovde

is an electronic cigarette.

je elektronska cigareta.

To je meni, od pre godinu, dve kad je izmišljeno,

It's something that, since it was invented a year or two ago,

pružilo neverovatno zadovoljstvo.

has given me untold happiness.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Mali deo tog zadovoljstva je nikotin,

A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine,

but there's something much bigger than that;

ali tu ima nešto mnogo važnije od nikotina.

which is, ever since, in the UK, they banned smoking in public places,

Od momenta kad su u Velikoj Britaniji zabranili pušenje na javnim mestima

nisam više uživao u koktel zabavama.

I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And the reason, I only worked out just the other day,

Zaključio sam zašto pre neki dan,

a to je da kad odeš na koktel zabavu,

which is: when you go to a drinks party and you stand up

stojiš i držiš čašu crvenog vina,

and hold a glass of red wine and you talk endlessly to people,

vodiš beskrajne razgovore,

you don't actually want to spend all the time talking.

ne želiš da pričaš svo vreme.

To je zaista zamorno.

It's really, really tiring.

Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts.

Ponekad želiš da samo mirno stojiš sam sa svojim mislima.

Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window.

Ponekad želiš samo da stojiš u ćošku i gledaš kroz prozor.

Now the problem is, when you can't smoke,

Problem je, što kad ne možeš da pušiš,

ako stojiš sam i gledaš kroz prozor,

if you stand and stare out of the window on your own,

you're an antisocial, friendless idiot.

onda ispadaš nedruštven, usamljeni idiot.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette,

Ako stojiš sam i gledaš kroz prozor sa cigaretom,

you're a fucking philosopher.

ti si jebeni filozof.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Aplauz)

(Applause)

So the power of reframing things

Snaga promene načina posmatranja

cannot be overstated.

ne može biti prenaglašena.

What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity,

Ovo što imamo je potpuno ista stvar, ista aktivnost,

but one of them makes you feel great

jedna čini da se osetiš velikim,

a druga, sa malom izmenom stava

and the other one, with just a small change of posture,

makes you feel terrible.

čini da se osećaš grozno.

And I think one of the problems with classical economics is,

Mislim da je jedan od problema klasične ekonomije

njena potpuna preokupiranost realnošću.

it's absolutely preoccupied with reality.

And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness.

Realnost nije posebno dobar vodič do ljudske sreće.

Why, for example, are pensioners much happier

Zbog čega su, na primer,

penzioneri mnogo srećniji

od mladih koji su nezaposleni?

than the young unemployed?

Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life.

Obe kategorije su u istoj životnoj fazi.

You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.

Obe imaju previše vremena i ne mnogo novca.

But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy,

Ali penzioneri su izgleda jako srećni,

dok su nezaposleni izuzetno nesrećni i depresivni.

whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed.

The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe

Mislim da penzioneri misle da su izabrani da budu penzioneri,

they've chosen to be pensioners,

whereas the young unemployed feel it's been thrust upon them.

dok mladi nezaposleni

misle da im je to nametnuto.

In England, the upper-middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly,

Viša srednja klasa u Engleskoj je izvrsno rešila ovaj problem,

jer su rebrendirali nezaposlenost.

because they've re-branded unemployment.

If you're an upper-middle-class English person,

Ako ste Englez iz više srednje klase,

you call unemployment "a year off."

nazivate nezaposlenost "slobodna godina".

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester

To je zato što je sramota imati

is really quite embarrassing.

nezaposlenog sina u Mančesteru,

But having a son who's unemployed in Thailand

dok je imati nezaposlenog sina na Tajlandu

is really viewed as quite an accomplishment.

u stvari priznanje.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Moć da se stvari rebrendiraju -

But actually, the power to re-brand things --

to understand that our experiences, costs, things

da shvatimo da u stvari naša iskustva, cene, stvari

don't actually much depend on what they really are,

ne zavise mnogo od toga šta su zaista,

but on how we view them --

već od toga kako ih vidimo -

zaista mislim da ne može biti precenjena.

I genuinely think can't be overstated.

There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to,

Danijel Pink pominje jedan eksperiment

where you put two dogs in a box

sa dva psa u kutiji

and the box has an electric floor.

koja ima električni pod.

Every now and then, an electric shock is applied to the floor,

Povremeno se propusti struja kroz pod

i to ih boli.

which pains the dogs.

The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box.

Jedina razlika je da jedan pas ima malo dugme na svojoj polovini kutije.

And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops.

Kad pritisne dugme, šok prestaje.

The other dog doesn't have the button.

Drugi pas nema dugme.

On je izložen potpuno istoj boli kao i pas u prvoj kutiji,

It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box,

but it has no control over the circumstances.

ali on ne može da kontroliše situaciju.

Generally, the first dog can be relatively content.

Prvi pas može biti relativno zadovoljan.

Drugi pas pada u potpunu depresiju.

The second dog lapses into complete depression.

The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness

Okolnosti u našim životima možda manje doprinose našoj sreći,

than the sense of control we feel over our lives.

od osećaja kontrole koji imamo nad svojim životima.

It's an interesting question.

To je jedno zanimljivo pitanje.

We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world

Postavljamo pitanje - debata u zapadnom svetu

is about the level of taxation.

je pitanje o visini poreza.

Ja mislim da bi trebalo diskutovati o drugoj stvari,

But I think there's another debate to be asked,

which is the level of control we have over our tax money,

koji je nivo kontrole koji imamo nad našim novcem za porez.

that what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse;

Nešto čija je cena 10 funti u jednoj priči može biti prokletstvo.

what costs us 10 pounds in a different context, we may actually welcome.

Ono što nas košta 10 funti u drugom kontekstu, možda je dobro.

You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax toward health,

Plati 20 000 funti za porez u zdravstvu

and you're merely feeling a mug.

i osećaš se jadno.

Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward,

Plati 20 000 funti kao donaciju bolničkom odeljenju

and you're called a philanthropist.

i već si filantrop.

Verovatno sam u pogrešnoj državi

I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax.

da bih govorio o spremnosti za plaćanjem poreza.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So I'll give you one in return: how you frame things really matters.

Daću vam jedan primer. Zaista je važno kako se stvari posmatraju.

Do you call it "The bailout of Greece"?

Da li se kaže spasavanje Grčke

Or "The bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece"?

ili spasavanje glupih banaka koje su pozajmile novac Grčkoj?

(Laughter)

Jer to je u stvari ista stvar.

Because they are actually the same thing.

Kako nazivate te stvari,

What you call them actually affects how you react to them,

utiče na vašu reakciju na njih, intuitivno i moralno.

viscerally and morally.

Po meni je, ako ćemo iskreno, psihološka vrednost sjajna.

I think psychological value is great, to be absolutely honest.

One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater,

Moj veliki prijatelj, profesor Nik Čater,

who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London,

profesor nauka o odlukama u Londonu,

veruje da bi trebalo da provodimo mnogo manje vremena

believes we should spend far less time looking into humanity's hidden depths,

u proučavanju skrivenih dubina čovečanstva,

and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows.

a mnogo više u proučavanju skrivenih plićaka.

I think that's true, actually.

Mislim da je to tačno.

I think impressions have an insane effect on what we think and what we do.

Utisci imaju neverovatan uticaj

na to šta mislimo i radimo.

But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology --

Ono što nemamo je zaista dobar model ljudske psihologije.

at least pre-Kahneman, perhaps,

Do pre Kanemana,

we didn't have a really good model of human psychology

nismo imali stvarno dobar model ljudske psihologije

to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics.

paralelan sa inženjerstvom, neoklasičnom ekonomijom.

So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model.

Tako da oni koji su verovali u psihološka rešenja, nisu imali model.

We didn't have a framework.

Nismo imali obrazac.

This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls

Ovo je prema Čarliju Mangeru, poslovnom partneru Vorena Bafeta,

"a latticework on which to hang your ideas."

"mreža za oslanjanje ideja."

Engineers, economists, classical economists

Inženjeri, ekonomisti, klasični ekonomisti,

all had a very, very robust existing latticework

svi su imali vrlo čvrstu mrežu,

on which practically every idea could be hung.

na koju se mogla okačiti svaka ideja.

We merely have a collection of random individual insights

Mi jedva da imamo neku kolekciju raznih individualnih saznanja

without an overall model.

bez nekog opšteg modela.

And what that means is that, in looking at solutions,

To znači da smo gledajući kakva su rešenja,

verovatno previše važnosti davali

we've probably given too much priority

to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions,

inženjersko-tehničkim rešenjima, njutnovskim rešenjima,

a ni izbliza dovoljno psihološkim.

and not nearly enough to the psychological ones.

You know my example of the Eurostar:

Znate za moj primer Eurostara.

six million pounds spent

Šest miliona funti je potrošeno da bi se skratilo vreme putovanja

to reduce the journey time between Paris and London

između Pariza i Londona za oko 40 min.

by about 40 minutes.

For 0.01 percent of this money, you could have put wi-fi on the trains,

Sa 0,01 posto ovog novca mogao se uvesti bežični internet u vozovima,

which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey,

što ne bi skratilo vreme putovanja,

but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefulness far more.

ali bi značajno popravilo uživanje i korist.

Sa možda 10 posto novca,

For maybe 10 percent of the money,

you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels

mogli su se platiti svi najbolji svetski muški i ženski supermodeli

koji bi išli kroz voz i nudili besplatan Šato Petrus svim putnicima.

to walk up and down the train handing out free Château Pétrus

to all the passengers.

(Laughter)

You'd still have five million pounds in change,

Još bi preostalo pet milijardi funti

and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.

i ljudi bi tražili da vozovi idu sporije.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Why were we not given the chance to solve that problem psychologically?

Zbog čega nam nije omogućeno

da rešimo ovaj problem psihološki?

I think it's because there's an imbalance,

Mislim da je to zbog toga što postoji disbalans, asimetrija

an asymmetry in the way we treat creative, emotionally driven psychological ideas

u načinu na koji tretiramo kreativne, emotivno podstaknute psihološke ideje

versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas.

spram načina na koji tretiramo racionalne, numeričke, tabelarne ideje.

Ako ste kreativna osoba,

If you're a creative person, I think, quite rightly,

morate da dajete ideje na odobrenje

you have to share all your ideas for approval

with people much more rational than you.

mnogo racionalnijim ljudima od sebe.

You have to go in and have a cost-benefit analysis,

Treba da se prijavite i da imate analizu troškova,

studiju izvodljivosti, detaljna istraživanja povrata ulaganja.

a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth.

And I think that's probably right.

Mislim da je to verovatno ispravno.

But this does not apply the other way around.

Ali ne važi u suprotnom smeru.

People who have an existing framework --

Ljudi koji imaju postojeći

an economic framework, an engineering framework --

ekonomski, inženjerski okvir,

osećaju da je logika u stvari odgovor.

feel that, actually, logic is its own answer.

What they don't say is, "Well, the numbers all seem to add up,

Oni ne kažu: "Izgleda da se svi brojevi slažu,

but before I present this idea, I'll show it to some really crazy people

ali pre nego što predstavim ovu ideju, pokazaću je nekim zaista otkačenim ljudima

to see if they can come up with something better."

da vidim da li će oni smisliti nešto bolje."

And so we -- artificially, I think -- prioritize

Tako dajemo, po meni pogrešno, veću važnost

what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas.

mehaničkim nad psihološkim idejama.

An example of a great psychological idea:

Jedan primer odlične psihološke ideje:

the single best improvement in passenger satisfaction

jedinstveno poboljšanje zadovoljstva putnika u londonskoj podzemnoj železnici

on the London Underground,

per pound spent,

nije došlo jer je povećan broj vozova i njihova učestalost,

came when they didn't add any extra trains,

nor change the frequency of the trains;

they put dot matrix display boards on the platforms --

već zato što su postavili matrični displej na platformama.

because the nature of a wait is not just dependent on its numerical quality,

Priroda čekanja je takva

da ne zavisi samo od svoje brojčane vrednosti, trajanja

its duration,

već od nivoa nesigurnosti koji doživljavamo dok čekamo.

but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait.

Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock

Čekati voz sedam minuta sa satom koji odbrojava

je manje frustrirajuće i iritirajuće

is less frustrating and irritating

than waiting four minutes, knuckle biting, going,

nego čekanje četiri minuta sa nerviranjem

u razmišljanju: "Kad će ovaj prokleti voz stići?"

"When's this train going to damn well arrive?"

Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution

Evo lep primer psihološkog rešenja sprovedenog u Koreji.

deployed in Korea.

Red traffic lights have a countdown delay.

Crvena svetla na semaforu imaju odbrojavanje.

Eksperimentalno je potvrđeno da je smanjena stopa nesreća.

It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments.

Why?

Zašto? Zato što su bes, nestrpljenje i iritacija

Because road rage, impatience and general irritation are massively reduced

drastično smanjeni kad zaista vidite vreme čekanja.

when you can actually see the time you have to wait.

In China, not really understanding the principle behind this,

U Kini su, ne razumevajući ovaj princip

they applied the same principle to green traffic lights --

ovo su primenili i na zelena svetla na semaforima.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

which isn't a great idea.

To nije dobra ideja.

Na 200 metara ste, shvatite da imate pet sekundi da prođete, dodate gas.

You're 200 yards away, you realize you've got five seconds to go,

you floor it.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

The Koreans, very assiduously, did test both.

Koreanci su vrlo temeljno, testirali oba.

Stopa nesreća se smanjuje kad se ovo primeni na crvena svetla,

The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights;

a povećava kod primene na zelenim svetlima.

it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights.

To je sve što tražim u odlukama ljudi

This is all I'm asking for, really, in human decision making,

uzimanje u obzir sve tri stvari tehnologija, psihologija, ekonomija.

is the consideration of these three things.

I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other.

Ne tražim potpuni primat jedne stvari nad drugom.

I'm merely saying that when you solve problems,

Jednostavno kažem da kad rešavate problem,

you should look at all three of these equally,

sve tri stvari treba da jednako posmatrate,

treba da što dublje tražite

and you should seek as far as possible

to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle.

rešenja koja su u sredini.

Zapravo, ako pogledate uspešan biznis

If you actually look at a great business,

skoro uvek su sve tri stvari u igri.

you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play.

Really successful businesses --

Zaista uspešni biznisi -

Google is a great, great technological success,

Google je fantastičan tehnološki uspeh,

but it's also based on a very good psychological insight:

ali je baziran na odličnom psihološkom uvidu:

ljudi veruju da je nešto što radi samo jednu stvar,

people believe something that only does one thing

is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else.

bolje od nečeg drugog što radi još nešto.

It's an innate thing called "goal dilution."

To je urođeno i zove se razblaživanje ciljeva.

Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this.

Ejlet Fišbah je napisala članak o tome.

Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less,

Svi drugi su u vremenu Googla manje-više,

pokušavali da budu portal.

was trying to be a portal.

Yes, there's a search function, but you also have weather,

Da, tu je opcija pretrage,

takođe imate vreme, sportske rezultate, malo vesti.

sports scores, bits of news.

Google understood that if you're just a search engine,

Google je razumeo da ako si samo pretraživač,

people assume you're a very, very good search engine.

ljudi podrazumevaju da si onda veoma dobar pretraživač.

All of you know this, actually, from when you go in to buy a television,

Svi znamo da,

kad idemo da kupimo televizor.

Na samom kraju niza televizora sa ravnim ekranom

and in the shabbier end of the row of flat-screen TVs,

mogu se videti one neomiljene stvari koje zovu kombinovani televizori

you can see, are these rather despised things

called "combined TV and DVD players."

sa DVD plejerom.

Mi nemamo nikakvo saznanje o kvalitetu tih stvari,

And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things,

ali pri pogledu na kombinovani televizor sa DVD-ejm:

but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck.

It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player."

"Uh. To je verovatno đubre i od televizora i DVD plejera."

So we walk out of the shops with one of each.

Tako da izađemo iz prodavnice sa oba.

Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one.

Google je podjednako i psihološki i tehnološki uspeh.

Predlažem da koristimo psihologiju za rešavanje problema

I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems

that we didn't even realize were problems at all.

za koje nismo ni znali da postoje.

Ovo je moj predlog da se ljudi nateraju da završe kuru antibiotika.

This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics.

Nemojte im dati 24 bele pilule.

Don't give them 24 white pills;

give them 18 white pills and six blue ones

Dajte im 18 belih i 6 plavih

and tell them to take the white pills first,

i recite im da prvo troše bele, a zatim plave.

and then take the blue ones.

To se zove seckanje.

It's called "chunking."

The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater

Mnogo je veća verovatnoća da će ljudi stići do cilja

when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle.

ako negde u sredini postoji značajan događaj.

Po meni je velika greška u ekonomiji

One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics

ta što nema razumevanja da nešto,

is it fails to understand that what something is --

whether it's retirement, unemployment, cost --

kao što su odlazak u penziju, nezaposlenost, trošak,

is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning.

ne zavisi samo od količine, već i od značenja.

This is a toll crossing in Britain.

Ovo je naplatna rampa u Britaniji.

Vrlo često se stvaraju redovi na rampama.

Quite often queues happen at the tolls.

Sometimes you get very, very severe queues.

Nekad su to jako dugi redovi.

You could apply the same principle, actually,

Isti princip se može primeniti ako želite,

to the security lanes in airports.

na sigurnosne trake na aerodromima.

What would happen if you could actually pay twice as much money

Šta bi bilo ako biste mogli da platite duplo da biste prešli preko mosta,

to cross the bridge,

ali kroz ekspres traku?

but go through a lane that's an express lane?

It's not an unreasonable thing to do;

To nije nerazumno. To je ekonomski isplativo.

it's an economically efficient thing to do.

Vreme nekim ljudima znači više.

Time means more to some people than others.

If you're waiting trying to get to a job interview,

Ako čekate da biste otišli na razgovor za posao,

you'd patently pay a couple of pounds more to go through the fast lane.

sigurno biste platili da prođete kroz brzu traku.

If you're on the way to visit your mother-in-law,

Ako idete da posetite taštu,

you'd probably prefer --

verovatno biste pre ostali levo.

(Laughter)

you'd probably prefer to stay on the left.

The only problem is if you introduce this economically efficient solution,

Jedini problem je ako izložite ovo ekonomski isplativo rešenje,

ljudi ga ne vole.

people hate it ...

because they think you're deliberately creating delays at the bridge

Oni misle da namerno stvaraš zastoj na mostu

da bi povećao svoj prihod:

in order to maximize your revenue,

and, "Why on earth should I pay to subsidize your incompetence?"

"Zaboga, zašto da subvencionišem tvoju nekompetentnost?"

On the other hand, change the frame slightly

Ali ako malo preoblikuješ stvari,

and create charitable yield management,

napraviš menadžment za upravljanje dobrovoljnim davanjima,

so the extra money you get goes not to the bridge company,

tako da dodatni novac ne ide kompaniji čiji je most, već u dobrotvorne svrhe,

it goes to charity ...

and the mental willingness to pay completely changes.

spremnost da se plati se potpuno menja.

You have a relatively economically efficient solution,

Imaš ekonomski isplativo rešenje,

koje ima javno odobravanje,

but one that actually meets with public approval

and even a small degree of affection,

čak malu dozu naklonosti,

rather than being seen as bastardy.

umesto bezobrazluka.

So where economists make the fundamental mistake

Ono gde ekonomisti prave osnovnu grešku

is they think that money is money.

je što misle da je novac novac.

Actually, my pain experienced in paying five pounds

Moj bol kad plaćam pet funti

is not just proportionate to the amount,

nije samo proporcionalan sumi,

but where I think that money is going.

već i mestu gde ja mislim da taj novac ide.

And I think understanding that could revolutionize tax policy.

Mislim da razumevanje ovoga može izazvati revoluciju u poreskoj politici.

It could revolutionize the public services.

Može promeniti javne usluge.

It could actually change things quite significantly.

Može značajno promeniti stvari.

[Ludwig Von Mises is my hero.]

Ovde je čovek kog svi treba da proučimo.

Here's a guy you all need to study.

On je đak austrijske škole ekonomije

He's an Austrian School economist

koji bio je aktivan u prvoj polovini dvadesetog veka u Beču.

who was first active in the first half of the 20th century in Vienna.

What was interesting about the Austrian School

Austrijska škola je zanimljiva

is they actually grew up alongside Freud.

jer je rasla paralelno sa Frojdovom školom.

And so they're predominantly interested in psychology.

Uglavnom ih je interesovala psihologija.

They believed that there was a discipline called praxeology,

Verovali su u disciplinu nazvanu prakseologija,

which is a prior discipline to the study of economics.

koja je bila disciplina pre ekonomskih nauka.

Praxeology is the study of human choice, action and decision-making.

Prakseologija je nauka o ljudskom izboru, delovanju i procesu odlučivanja.

I think they're right.

Mislim da su u pravu.

I think the danger we have in today's world

Mislim da je opasnost u današnjem svetu

is we have the study of economics

to što studija ekonomije

smatra sebe prethodnikom studije ljudske psihologije.

considers itself to be a prior discipline to the study of human psychology.

But as Charlie Munger says, "If economics isn't behavioral,

Čarli Manger kaže: "Ako ekonomija nije bihevioralna,

onda dođavola ne znam šta jeste."

I don't know what the hell is."

Zanimljivo je da Fon Mizes veruje da je ekonomija samo deo psihologije.

Von Mises, interestingly, believes economics is just a subset of psychology.

I think he just refers to economics

On za ekonomiju kaže da je

as "the study of human praxeology under conditions of scarcity."

"nauka o ljudskoj prakseologiji pod uslovima oskudice."

Među mnogim stvarima Fon Mizes

But Von Mises, among many other things,

I think uses an analogy which is probably the best justification and explanation

uzima analogiju koja je najbolje opravdanje i objašnjenje

for the value of marketing, the value of perceived value

za marketinšku vrednost, vrednost doživljene vrednosti

i činjenicu da bi trebalo da je tretiramo kao potpuno jednaku

and the fact that we should treat it as being absolutely equivalent

to any other kind of value.

sa bilo kojom drugom vrednošću.

We tend to, all of us, even those of us who work in marketing,

Svi mi nastojimo - čak i oni koji rade u prodaji -

da vidimo vrednost na dva načina.

think of value in two ways:

the real value, which is when you make something in a factory

Postoji stvarna vrednost,

koja nastaje u fabrici ili kad pružite uslugu,

or provide a service,

and then there's a dubious value,

i postoji takoreći diskutabilna vrednost,

which you create by changing the way people look at things.

koju napravite promenom načina na koji ljudi gledaju na stvari.

Von Mises completely rejected this distinction.

Fon Mizes potpuno odbacuje ovu razliku.

And he used this following analogy:

On koristi sledeću analogiju.

On se oslanja na čudne ekonomiste tzv. francuske fiziokrate,

he referred to strange economists called the French physiocrats,

who believed that the only true value was what you extracted from the land.

koji su verovali da je jedina prava vrednost ona koja se dobije iz zemlje.

So if you're a shepherd or a quarryman or a farmer,

Tako da ako ste pastir, rudar ili zemljoradnik,

you created true value.

vi stvarate pravu vrednost.

If however, you bought some wool from the shepherd

Ako ste kupili vunu od pastira

and charged a premium for converting it into a hat,

i naplatili zaradu pravljenjem šešira,

you weren't actually creating value,

vi u stvari ne pravite novu vrednost,

you were exploiting the shepherd.

vi eksploatišete pastira.

Now, Von Mises said that modern economists make exactly the same mistake

Fon Mizes kaže da savremeni ekonomisti prave upravo istu grešku

u odnosu na reklame i marketing.

with regard to advertising and marketing.

He says if you run a restaurant,

On kaže da ako vodiš restoran,

there is no healthy distinction to be made

nema jasne razlike

između vrednosti koju stvaraš kuvajući

between the value you create by cooking the food

and the value you create by sweeping the floor.

i vrednosti koju stvaraš brišući pod.

One of them creates, perhaps, the primary product --

Jedna od njih možda stvara glavni proizvod -

the thing we think we're paying for --

ono šta plaćamo -

druga stvara kontekst

the other one creates a context within which we can enjoy

u kom možemo da uživamo u proizvodu.

and appreciate that product.

Ideja da je jedna od tih stvari važnija

And the idea that one of them should have priority over the other

je suštinski pogrešna.

is fundamentally wrong.

Try this quick thought experiment:

Pokušajte ovaj misaoni eksperiment.

imagine a restaurant that serves Michelin-starred food,

Zamislite restoran koji služi hranu sa Mišelin zvezdom,

but where the restaurant smells of sewage

a u stvari restoran smrdi na kanalizaciju

and there's human feces on the floor.

i ljudski izmet je na podu.

(Laughter)

The best thing you can do there to create value

Da biste napravili vrednost,

nije najbolje još popravljati hranu,

is not actually to improve the food still further,

it's to get rid of the smell and clean up the floor.

već rešiti se smrada i očistiti pod.

Veoma je važno shvatiti ovo.

And it's vital we understand this.

Ako to deluje kao čudna, nejasna stvar,

If that seems like a sort of strange, abstruse thing --

u Velikoj Britaniji, pošta je imala 98 posto uspešnosti

in the UK, the post office had a 98 percent success rate

at delivering first-class mail the next day.

u dostavljanju pošte prve klase sutradan.

Odlučeno je da to nije dovoljno dobro

They decided this wasn't good enough,

i hteli su da podignu ovaj nivo na 99 posto.

and they wanted to get it up to 99.

The effort to do that almost broke the organization.

Da bi ovo uradili skoro su uništili organizaciju.

If, at the same time, you'd gone and asked people,

Da ste u isto vreme pitali ljude:

"Koji procenat pošte prve klase stiže sutradan?"

"What percentage of first-class mail arrives the next day?"

prosečan odgovor bi bio 50 do 60 posto.

the average answer, or the modal answer, would have been "50 to 60 percent."

Now, if your perception is much worse than your reality,

Ako je vaša percepcija mnogo gora od realnosti,

what on earth are you doing trying to change the reality?

zbog čega zaboga pokušavate da promenite realnost?

To je isto kao popravljanje hrane u restoranu koji smrdi.

That's like trying to improve the food in a restaurant that stinks.

Ono što treba da uradite

What you need to do is, first of all, tell people

je da prvo kažete ljudima

da 98 posto pošte prve klase stiže sutradan.

that 98 percent of first-class mail gets there the next day.

That's pretty good.

To je dosta dobro.

I would argue, in Britain, there's a much better frame of reference,

Reći ću vam, u Britaniji postoji mnogo bolji okvir,

a to je reći ljudima

which is to tell people that more first-class mail arrives the next day

da više pošte prve klase stiže sutradan

u Britaniji nego u Nemačkoj.

in the UK than in Germany, because generally, in Britain,

Ako hoćete da nas u Britaniji napravite srećnim zbog nečega,

if you want to make us happy about something,

samo recite da to radimo bolje od Nemaca.

just tell us we do it better than the Germans.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

(Aplauz)

(Applause)

Choose your frame of reference and the perceived value,

Izaberite svoj referentni okvir i percepciju

and therefore, the actual value is completely transformed.

i samim tim stvarna vrednost je potpuno transformisana.

U vezi sa Nemcima, mora se reći

It has to be said of the Germans

that the Germans and the French are doing a brilliant job

da Nemci i Francuzi rade briljantan posao

of creating a united Europe.

u stvaranju ujedinjene Evrope.

The only thing they didn't expect is they're uniting Europe

Jedina stvar koju oni ne očekuju je da ujedinjuju Evropu

through a shared mild hatred of the French and Germans.

kroz blagu mržnju Francuza i Nemaca.

But I'm British; that's the way we like it.

Ali ja sam Britanac, mi to tako volimo.

(Laughter)

Primećujete da je u svakom slučaju naša percepija loša.

What you'll also notice is that, in any case,

our perception is leaky.

We can't tell the difference between the quality of the food

Ne možemo navesti razliku između kvaliteta hrane

i sredine u kojoj je konzumiramo.

and the environment in which we consume it.

Svi ste videli ovaj fenomen

All of you will have seen this phenomenon

ako ste oprali ili servisirali auto.

if you have your car washed or valeted.

When you drive away, your car feels as if it drives better.

Posle odlaska, osećate kao da vaš auto ide bolje.

(Laughter)

Razlog je,

And the reason for this --

osim ako su mi u servisu misteriozno promenili ulje

unless my car valet mysteriously is changing the oil

ili uradili nešto što nisam platio ili ne znam,

and performing work which I'm not paying him for and I'm unaware of --

to što percepcija u svakom slučaju nije dobra.

is because perception is, in any case, leaky.

Analgesics that are branded are more effective at reducing pain

Brendirani analgetici su mnogo bolji u efektima smanjivanja bola

than analgesics that are not branded.

od analgetika koji nisu brenidrani.

I don't just mean through reported pain reduction --

Ne mislim samo na prijavljeno smanjenje bola,

već na izmereno smanjenje bola.

actual measured pain reduction.

And so perception actually is leaky in any case.

Tako da je percepcija u stvari slaba u svakom slučaju.

So if you do something that's perceptually bad in one respect,

Ako uradite nešto što je pogrešno iz jedne perspektive,

možete da oštetite drugu.

you can damage the other.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)