Rory Sutherland: Perspective is everything

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Karen SONG 審譯者: Gina Wang

我拿著的

What you have here

is an electronic cigarette.

是一根電子香煙

它自從一兩年前被發明後

It's something that, since it was invented a year or two ago,

已帶給我不可言喻的快樂

has given me untold happiness.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

一小部分原因是尼古丁

A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine,

but there's something much bigger than that;

但還有更重要的原因

which is, ever since, in the UK, they banned smoking in public places,

自從英國禁止在公共場所吸煙

我就再也沒有享受過酒會了

I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

我不久前才總結出個原因

And the reason, I only worked out just the other day,

就是當你來到一場酒會

which is: when you go to a drinks party and you stand up

站在那裡，手拿一杯紅酒

and hold a glass of red wine and you talk endlessly to people,

口若懸河

you don't actually want to spend all the time talking.

你可不願意一直講話

那太累了

It's really, really tiring.

Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts.

有時候你只是想靜靜地站著想點事情

Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window.

有時候你只是想站在角落望著窗外

Now the problem is, when you can't smoke,

問題來了——當你不能抽煙的時候

如果你獨自一人站著並望著窗外

if you stand and stare out of the window on your own,

你就是個沒朋友的社交白癡

you're an antisocial, friendless idiot.

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

如果你獨自站著望向窗外，拿著一根煙

If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette,

you're a fucking philosopher.

你就是個深沉的哲學家

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

（掌聲）

(Applause)

所以說重新定義事物的威力

So the power of reframing things

怎麼講都不會太誇大

cannot be overstated.

兩個完全一樣的東西、行為

What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity,

but one of them makes you feel great

其中一種讓你感覺良好

而另一種，只要稍作改變

and the other one, with just a small change of posture,

就能讓你感覺極差

makes you feel terrible.

我認為古典經濟學的一個問題

And I think one of the problems with classical economics is,

在於它過分關注現實

it's absolutely preoccupied with reality.

And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness.

但現實並非是通向人類幸福的好指南

比如說

Why, for example, are pensioners much happier

為什麼領退休金的老人

比年輕失業者更快樂？

than the young unemployed?

Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life.

畢竟二者的生活型態完全相同

You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.

手上有太多時間，卻沒有多少錢可花

但是退休老人據稱非常非常快樂

But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy,

而失業者則極度消沉及絕望

whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed.

我認為原因在於，退休老人相信 這身份是自己選擇成為的

The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe

they've chosen to be pensioners,

而年輕失業者

whereas the young unemployed feel it's been thrust upon them.

卻感覺是被迫失業的

In England, the upper-middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly,

在英國，上層的中產階級 已完美地解決這個問題

他們重新包裝了失業這回事

because they've re-branded unemployment.

如果你屬於英國的上層中產階級

If you're an upper-middle-class English person,

you call unemployment "a year off."

你管失業叫「一年假期」

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

因為你兒子要是在曼徹斯特失了業

And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester

is really quite embarrassing.

是一件蠻丟臉的事

But having a son who's unemployed in Thailand

但如果你兒子是在泰國賦閒

is really viewed as quite an accomplishment.

則是一項非凡的成就

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

事實上，重新包裝事物的威力是--

But actually, the power to re-brand things --

to understand that our experiences, costs, things

瞭解到我們的經驗、花費、事物

don't actually much depend on what they really are,

並不太取決於它們自身

but on how we view them --

而是取決於我們如何看待它們

我確實相信這威力不容小覷

I genuinely think can't be overstated.

There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to,

我記得Daniel Pink提到過一個實驗

你把兩隻狗關在箱子裡

where you put two dogs in a box

and the box has an electric floor.

箱子底部通電

不定時的給予電擊

Every now and then, an electric shock is applied to the floor,

讓狗受到痛苦

which pains the dogs.

The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box.

唯一的不同是，其中一隻狗 在它那半箱子中有個小按鈕

And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops.

當它用鼻子按那個按鈕 電擊就停止了

另一隻狗沒有這個按鈕

The other dog doesn't have the button.

它感受到的電擊痛苦與前一隻狗完全相同

It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box,

but it has no control over the circumstances.

但它對局面沒有任何掌控

基本上，第一隻狗相對地滿足

Generally, the first dog can be relatively content.

第二隻狗則陷入深深的絕望

The second dog lapses into complete depression.

人生境遇對我們幸福的影響力

The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness

than the sense of control we feel over our lives.

比不上我們對人生的控制感

It's an interesting question.

這是個有趣的問題

整個西方世界都在爭論

We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world

is about the level of taxation.

稅收水準究竟該怎麼定

但我認為另一個爭論應被提出

But I think there's another debate to be asked,

which is the level of control we have over our tax money,

就是我們對稅款的控制程度

在某種情況下花的10英鎊可能是個詛咒

that what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse;

而在另一種情況下 花去的10英鎊可能倍受歡迎

what costs us 10 pounds in a different context, we may actually welcome.

你知道，花費2萬英鎊稅金投資健康

You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax toward health,

你會感到自己是個冤大頭

and you're merely feeling a mug.

Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward,

但花費2萬英鎊去捐贈一間醫院病房

and you're called a philanthropist.

你會被稱作慈善家

也許我在這個國家不適合談論納稅的意願

I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So I'll give you one in return: how you frame things really matters.

所以作為補償 我要講如何對事物定調真的很重要

Do you call it "The bailout of Greece"?

到底要稱作對希臘的緊急金援

Or "The bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece"?

還是稱作一堆愚蠢的銀行 笨到貸款給希臘的緊急援助？

(Laughter)

因為這兩種說法實際上是同一回事

Because they are actually the same thing.

你如何定調一個問題

What you call them actually affects how you react to them,

會影響到你心理以及倫理上的反應

viscerally and morally.

坦白說我認為心理價值非常重要

I think psychological value is great, to be absolutely honest.

One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater,

我有一位很好的朋友 Nick Chater教授

who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London,

在倫敦研究決策科學

他認為我們應該大大減少

believes we should spend far less time looking into humanity's hidden depths,

探討人性隱藏深度的時間

and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows.

而把更多時間用在探索人性隱藏的膚淺上

我深深以為

I think that's true, actually.

I think impressions have an insane effect on what we think and what we do.

印象能夠強烈地影響

我們的所想所為

但我們缺乏一個人類心理學的好模型

But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology --

at least pre-Kahneman, perhaps,

至少可能在卡尼曼之前的年代

we didn't have a really good model of human psychology

我們一直都沒有一個比較好的人類心理學模型

to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics.

以與工程學模型和新古典經濟學模型比肩

So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model.

因此那些相信心理學解釋的人們 沒有可用的模型

We didn't have a framework.

沒有理論框架可用

This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls

這就是巴菲特的生意夥伴查理‧孟格所稱

“一個用來懸掛你想法的格子框架”

"a latticework on which to hang your ideas."

工程師、經濟學家、古典學派經濟學家

Engineers, economists, classical economists

都有一個非常強有力的現有理論框架

all had a very, very robust existing latticework

on which practically every idea could be hung.

用來準確定位任何一個相關想法

We merely have a collection of random individual insights

心理學卻只有一些隨機的個人見解

without an overall model.

但缺乏整體的理論框架

And what that means is that, in looking at solutions,

這就意味當我們尋求解決方案時

我們太過側重於

we've probably given too much priority

工程學方面的、牛頓思維的辦法

to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions,

而對心理學方向的關注遠遠不足

and not nearly enough to the psychological ones.

You know my example of the Eurostar:

你們都知道我那個關於歐洲之星的例子

six million pounds spent

六百億英鎊花在將巴黎與倫敦

to reduce the journey time between Paris and London

之間的車程縮短40分鐘

by about 40 minutes.

For 0.01 percent of this money, you could have put wi-fi on the trains,

但只要花這筆錢的1% 你可以讓列車有WiFi網路

which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey,

這雖然不會縮短旅程的時間

but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefulness far more.

但會大大增加旅程的樂趣和用途

用這筆錢的10分之1

For maybe 10 percent of the money,

you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels

你就能請到全世界的男女超級名模

在走道上向所有旅客分發免費的波得路堡葡萄酒

to walk up and down the train handing out free Château Pétrus

to all the passengers.

(Laughter)

你還能剩下50億英鎊

You'd still have five million pounds in change,

and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.

旅客還可能會要求列車減速

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

我們為什麼從未嘗試

Why were we not given the chance to solve that problem psychologically?

從心理學的角度來解決問題？

I think it's because there's an imbalance,

我想這是因為我們對待以下兩種思維方式 是不平衡、不對稱的

an asymmetry in the way we treat creative, emotionally driven psychological ideas

一種是創造性的、情緒引導的心理學思維方式

另一種理性的、數據的、報表引導的思維方式

versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas.

如果你是一個創造性的人

If you're a creative person, I think, quite rightly,

你必須將自己的想法分享給

you have to share all your ideas for approval

with people much more rational than you.

更理性的人，獲得他們的批准

You have to go in and have a cost-benefit analysis,

你必須給出一個成本收益分析

一個可行性研究 投資回報率分析之類的東西

a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth.

這也許沒有錯

And I think that's probably right.

But this does not apply the other way around.

但當情況反過來時卻是行不通的

那些已有理論框架

People who have an existing framework --

an economic framework, an engineering framework --

經濟學框架、工程學框架

認為邏輯是自身的答案

feel that, actually, logic is its own answer.

What they don't say is, "Well, the numbers all seem to add up,

他們不會說：“數字看來是沒錯

but before I present this idea, I'll show it to some really crazy people

但我要在報告這個想法之前 我要去問問那些真正瘋狂的人

看他們能不能有更好的想法。”

to see if they can come up with something better."

And so we -- artificially, I think -- prioritize

所以我們人為地

將機械化思維置於心理學思維之上

what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas.

An example of a great psychological idea:

這裡有個關於心理學解決方案的絕佳例子：

the single best improvement in passenger satisfaction

倫敦地鐵花錢在改善乘客滿意度上最好的措施

on the London Underground,

per pound spent,

並不是增加列車數量 或者改變行班間距

came when they didn't add any extra trains,

nor change the frequency of the trains;

they put dot matrix display boards on the platforms --

而是在月臺上放置了顯示營幕

because the nature of a wait is not just dependent on its numerical quality,

由於等待的特性

並不完全取決於等待時間的長度

its duration,

而是取決於你等待時所感受不確定性的程度

but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait.

在計時器的倒計時中等待7分鐘

Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock

其間的沮喪和煩躁遠低於

is less frustrating and irritating

than waiting four minutes, knuckle biting, going,

只等了四分鐘，但咬著手指不斷逼問

這該死的車什麼時候才來？

"When's this train going to damn well arrive?"

韓國也有個很棒的心理學解決方案

Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution

deployed in Korea.

Red traffic lights have a countdown delay.

紅燈時有倒數計時

這在實驗中被證實能夠降低事故發生率

It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments.

Why?

為什麼？因為交通上的憤怒、不耐和焦躁

Because road rage, impatience and general irritation are massively reduced

在你能清楚看到剩下的等待時間時 被大大降低

when you can actually see the time you have to wait.

In China, not really understanding the principle behind this,

在中國，不知為何

they applied the same principle to green traffic lights --

他們在綠燈的時候運用同樣方法

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

這可不是個好主意

which isn't a great idea.

你離路口還有200碼遠 看到綠燈還剩5秒，就直接衝過去

You're 200 yards away, you realize you've got five seconds to go,

you floor it.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

韓國人很嚴謹的測試了兩種情況

The Koreans, very assiduously, did test both.

給紅燈倒計時，事故率降低

The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights;

而給綠燈倒計時，事故率則上升

it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights.

我呼籲人們在做決策時

This is all I'm asking for, really, in human decision making,

考慮這三個方面 （投影：技術、心理、經濟）

is the consideration of these three things.

它們的重要性不分先後

I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other.

我只是希望當你解決問題時

I'm merely saying that when you solve problems,

同等重要地考慮以下這三個要素

you should look at all three of these equally,

你應盡可能地

and you should seek as far as possible

去找尋匯聚三者的完美解決方案

to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle.

如果你實際去評估一家好公司

If you actually look at a great business,

你幾乎都會看到這三個方面的作為

you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play.

Really successful businesses --

貨真價實的成功企業

Google is a great, great technological success,

Google是成功的科技公司

but it's also based on a very good psychological insight:

但它同時反映出非常好的心理學洞見

人們相信專注於一種業務的公司

people believe something that only does one thing

is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else.

在此種業務上要比多樣化的公司做得更出色

It's an innate thing called "goal dilution."

這種固有的信念叫做目標稀釋

Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this.

阿耶萊-費斯巴赫寫了一篇關於這件事的論文

Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less,

Google出現時的其他同業公司

都在努力成為入口網站

was trying to be a portal.

的確，他們有搜索功能

Yes, there's a search function, but you also have weather,

但也有天氣預報、體育賽事比分、一點新聞報導

sports scores, bits of news.

Google明白如果你僅僅是一個搜尋引擎

Google understood that if you're just a search engine,

人們會假定你是非常好的搜尋引擎

people assume you're a very, very good search engine.

All of you know this, actually, from when you go in to buy a television,

你們所有人

在買電視的時候都深刻體會到這點

在那排平板電視最後的破爛角落裡

and in the shabbier end of the row of flat-screen TVs,

有一種備受冷落的機器叫電視與DVD組合播放機

you can see, are these rather despised things

called "combined TV and DVD players."

你對這種東西的品質一無所知

And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things,

但我們眼看這電視與DVD播放器的組合 就會觀感很差

but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck.

It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player."

覺得這可能是爛電視和爛DVD播放機的組合吧

So we walk out of the shops with one of each.

所以我們走出商店時會分別買這兩種機器

Google在心理學方面的成功和 技術上的成功同樣重要

Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one.

我提議我們可以用心理學來解決

I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems

that we didn't even realize were problems at all.

那些我們甚至不認為是問題的問題

我有個幫助人們完成抗生素療程的建議

This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics.

不要給他們24顆白色藥片

Don't give them 24 white pills;

give them 18 white pills and six blue ones

給他們18顆白色藥片和6顆藍色藥片

and tell them to take the white pills first,

告訴他們先吃白的，再吃藍的

and then take the blue ones.

這叫做組塊化

It's called "chunking."

The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater

人們堅持到最後的可能性大大增加

when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle.

因為中途有個里程碑

我想經濟學一個顯著的錯誤

One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics

就是沒有認知到某個事項

is it fails to understand that what something is --

whether it's retirement, unemployment, cost --

無論是退休、失業，還是花費

is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning.

都不僅是作用或是數據 更具有心理意義

在英國有個收費站

This is a toll crossing in Britain.

通常在收費站都要排隊

Quite often queues happen at the tolls.

Sometimes you get very, very severe queues.

有時候甚至大排長龍

You could apply the same principle, actually,

如果你願意，可以採取

to the security lanes in airports.

與機場安檢同樣的方法

要是你要繳納兩倍的過橋費才能快速通過

What would happen if you could actually pay twice as much money

to cross the bridge,

那會發生什麼情況？

but go through a lane that's an express lane?

It's not an unreasonable thing to do;

這可不是無理要求 而是一個經濟上高效率的做法

it's an economically efficient thing to do.

時間的價值對某些人比其他人更高

Time means more to some people than others.

If you're waiting trying to get to a job interview,

如果你要去參加求職面試

you'd patently pay a couple of pounds more to go through the fast lane.

你顯然願意花多幾英鎊走快速通道

如果你是要去見岳母

If you're on the way to visit your mother-in-law,

you'd probably prefer --

你可能更願意走普通車道

(Laughter)

you'd probably prefer to stay on the left.

實施這項經濟高效措施的唯一麻煩就是

The only problem is if you introduce this economically efficient solution,

人們厭惡它

people hate it ...

because they think you're deliberately creating delays at the bridge

他們會以為你將故意製造橋上的擁堵

來增加收入

in order to maximize your revenue,

and, "Why on earth should I pay to subsidize your incompetence?"

他們會想“為什麼我要掏錢為你的無能買單？”

On the other hand, change the frame slightly

然而，若稍稍改變做法

and create charitable yield management,

增加所得的慈善管理

不讓增收的錢款歸入路橋公司 而作慈善用途

so the extra money you get goes not to the bridge company,

it goes to charity ...

人們的付款意願將會截然不同

and the mental willingness to pay completely changes.

你擁有了一個經濟上相對高效的解決方案

You have a relatively economically efficient solution,

同時也會被公眾接納

but one that actually meets with public approval

and even a small degree of affection,

甚至還受到一點點的喜愛

rather than being seen as bastardy.

而不是被視為卑鄙無恥

So where economists make the fundamental mistake

所以，經濟學家基本上的錯誤在於

is they think that money is money.

他們認為錢就是錢

實際上我付5英鎊時的痛苦

Actually, my pain experienced in paying five pounds

is not just proportionate to the amount,

與金額大小沒有直接關係

but where I think that money is going.

而是在我所認定之錢的用途

我相信理解這點將會對稅收政策帶來革命

And I think understanding that could revolutionize tax policy.

It could revolutionize the public services.

它會對公共服務帶來革命

It could actually change things quite significantly.

它將會顯著的改變現狀

[Ludwig Von Mises is my hero.]

你們需要這個人研究一下 （投影：路德維希‧馮‧米塞斯是我的英雄）

Here's a guy you all need to study.

他是奧地利學派的一位經濟學家

He's an Austrian School economist

20世紀上半葉在維也納嶄露頭角

who was first active in the first half of the 20th century in Vienna.

What was interesting about the Austrian School

奧地利學派的特點在於

is they actually grew up alongside Freud.

它是與佛洛伊德共同成長的

And so they're predominantly interested in psychology.

所以他們十分仰賴心理學

They believed that there was a discipline called praxeology,

他們認為有行為學這門學說

which is a prior discipline to the study of economics.

要高於經濟學

Praxeology is the study of human choice, action and decision-making.

行為學研究人類如何選擇、行動和決策

I think they're right.

我認為他們是對的

現今世界的危險在於

I think the danger we have in today's world

我們現有的經濟學

is we have the study of economics

認為自身比人類心理學更重要

considers itself to be a prior discipline to the study of human psychology.

But as Charlie Munger says, "If economics isn't behavioral,

但正如查理‧孟格所言：“如果經濟不具備行為學的特質

我則不知道它是什麼東西。”

I don't know what the hell is."

有意思的是，馮‧米塞斯認為 經濟學只是心理學的分支

Von Mises, interestingly, believes economics is just a subset of psychology.

I think he just refers to economics

他認為經濟學只是

as "the study of human praxeology under conditions of scarcity."

“在稀有條件下的人類行為學研究”

馮‧米塞斯在諸多貢獻中

But Von Mises, among many other things,

最重要的是他運用了最佳的類比來說明

I think uses an analogy which is probably the best justification and explanation

for the value of marketing, the value of perceived value

行銷的價值和感知價值

事實上我們應絕對平等的對待感知價值

and the fact that we should treat it as being absolutely equivalent

to any other kind of value.

一如其他種類的價值

我們所有人，甚至是從事行銷的人

We tend to, all of us, even those of us who work in marketing,

都傾向於把價值分為兩種

think of value in two ways:

一種是真實價值

the real value, which is when you make something in a factory

就是在工廠製造商品或提供服務

另一種是不確定的價值

or provide a service,

and then there's a dubious value,

來自於改變人們對事物的觀感

which you create by changing the way people look at things.

馮‧米塞斯完全反對這種分野

Von Mises completely rejected this distinction.

他用的是以下的類比

And he used this following analogy:

他提到一個叫做法國重農主義的古怪經濟學派

he referred to strange economists called the French physiocrats,

他們相信只有土地的產出物才有真正的價值

who believed that the only true value was what you extracted from the land.

所以如果你是牧羊人、礦工或農民

So if you're a shepherd or a quarryman or a farmer,

you created true value.

你才創造真正的價值

If however, you bought some wool from the shepherd

但如果有人從牧羊人手中買下羊毛

做成帽子，賺取更高利潤

and charged a premium for converting it into a hat,

就不是創造價值

you weren't actually creating value,

you were exploiting the shepherd.

而是在剝削牧羊人

Now, Von Mises said that modern economists make exactly the same mistake

馮‧米塞斯提出現代經濟學（與重農主義者）

在對待廣告和行銷上犯了一模一樣的錯誤

with regard to advertising and marketing.

He says if you run a restaurant,

他說，如果你經營一家餐館

there is no healthy distinction to be made

你沒辦法去嚴格區分

烹飪食物所創造的價值

between the value you create by cooking the food

and the value you create by sweeping the floor.

和打掃地板的價值

前一項創造了主要產品

One of them creates, perhaps, the primary product --

the thing we think we're paying for --

消費者認為花錢購買的是菜肴

另一項則創造了環境

the other one creates a context within which we can enjoy

消費者在這個環境中享用產品

and appreciate that product.

若認為一項比另一項更重要

And the idea that one of them should have priority over the other

是個根本性的錯誤

is fundamentally wrong.

Try this quick thought experiment:

讓我們來做個快速的思維實驗

imagine a restaurant that serves Michelin-starred food,

想像一家餐廳 提供米其林星級水準的食物

但餐廳裡惡臭彌漫

but where the restaurant smells of sewage

地板上屎尿橫流

and there's human feces on the floor.

(Laughter)

The best thing you can do there to create value

你在這家餐廳創造價值的最好方法

不是去更進一步提升菜餚品質

is not actually to improve the food still further,

it's to get rid of the smell and clean up the floor.

而是去除異味，清潔地板

理解這點至關重要

And it's vital we understand this.

如果這看起來古怪、荒謬

If that seems like a sort of strange, abstruse thing --

英國郵政有98%的成功投遞率

in the UK, the post office had a 98 percent success rate

at delivering first-class mail the next day.

讓平信隔天送達

他們認為這還不夠好

They decided this wasn't good enough,

想要把結果提升到99%

and they wanted to get it up to 99.

為了做這樣的事差點毀了整個組織

The effort to do that almost broke the organization.

如果你同時去問民眾

If, at the same time, you'd gone and asked people,

“平信隔天寄到的比率有多少？”

"What percentage of first-class mail arrives the next day?"

一般典型的回答是50%-60%

the average answer, or the modal answer, would have been "50 to 60 percent."

如果公眾感知遠遠低於實際情況

Now, if your perception is much worse than your reality,

你為什麼還要去改變實際情況？

what on earth are you doing trying to change the reality?

這就像試著在臭餐廳裡提升食物品質

That's like trying to improve the food in a restaurant that stinks.

你需要做的

What you need to do is, first of all, tell people

首先是去告訴民眾

平信隔天到達的比率已達到98%

that 98 percent of first-class mail gets there the next day.

That's pretty good.

這已經很不錯了

不過我認為 在英國還有更好用的說法

I would argue, in Britain, there's a much better frame of reference,

就是告訴民眾

which is to tell people that more first-class mail arrives the next day

英國平信的隔日送達率

超過德國

in the UK than in Germany, because generally, in Britain,

因為一般來說 你如果想要英國人高興

if you want to make us happy about something,

就告訴他們我們做得比德國好

just tell us we do it better than the Germans.

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

（鼓掌）

(Applause)

選則你的說法和感知價值

Choose your frame of reference and the perceived value,

and therefore, the actual value is completely transformed.

事物的真實價值就會完全改變

我們得承認德國人

It has to be said of the Germans

that the Germans and the French are doing a brilliant job

與法國人一起讓歐洲團結

非常了不起

of creating a united Europe.

The only thing they didn't expect is they're uniting Europe

他們唯一沒有料到的是 這個團結的歐洲

through a shared mild hatred of the French and Germans.

都對法國人和德國人有些輕微憎恨

但我是英國人 我喜歡這樣的結果

But I'm British; that's the way we like it.

(Laughter)

你也要注意我們的感知是有漏洞的

What you'll also notice is that, in any case,

our perception is leaky.

We can't tell the difference between the quality of the food

我們無法區分食物品質

和相應的就餐環境

and the environment in which we consume it.

你們應該都觀察到一個現象

All of you will have seen this phenomenon

只要洗過車或讓人泊過車

if you have your car washed or valeted.

When you drive away, your car feels as if it drives better.

當你開走時，會感覺車子更好開了

(Laughter)

而這個原因

And the reason for this --

除非是洗車員偷偷地更換了機油

unless my car valet mysteriously is changing the oil

或者在我不知情的前提下免費為我的車做了什麼

and performing work which I'm not paying him for and I'm unaware of --

是因為感知總是有漏洞的

is because perception is, in any case, leaky.

Analgesics that are branded are more effective at reducing pain

有品牌的止痛藥的止痛效果

than analgesics that are not branded.

比沒品牌的要好

I don't just mean through reported pain reduction --

我的論據並不是患者自己說疼痛減輕

而是實際測量的疼痛減輕

actual measured pain reduction.

And so perception actually is leaky in any case.

所以說，感知總是有漏洞的

如果你做了一件事 從某一方面會被感知是壞事

So if you do something that's perceptually bad in one respect,

另方面也會受到損害

you can damage the other.

Thank you very much.

非常感謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）