Rory Sutherland: Perspective is everything

1,345,434 views ・ 2012-05-04

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00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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Translator: Klavdija Cernilogar Reviewer: Irma Sutlic
Tole, kar držim v roki,
00:16
What you have here
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00:17
is an electronic cigarette.
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je elektronska cigareta.
Odkar so jo pred letom ali dvema izumili,
00:22
It's something that, since it was invented a year or two ago,
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me je neizmerno osrečila.
00:25
has given me untold happiness.
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00:26
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Malo, se mi zdi, zaradi nikotina,
00:28
A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine,
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00:30
but there's something much bigger than that;
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ampak za še nekaj pomembnejšega gre.
00:32
which is, ever since, in the UK, they banned smoking in public places,
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Odkar so v Veliki Britaniji prepovedali kajenje na javnih mestih,
nisem nikoli več užival na zabavah.
00:38
I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again.
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00:41
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Šele oni dan sem ugotovil, zakaj je tako.
00:43
And the reason, I only worked out just the other day,
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Ko namreč človek gre na zabavo
00:46
which is: when you go to a drinks party and you stand up
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in stoji tam in v roki drži kozarec rdečega vina
00:48
and hold a glass of red wine and you talk endlessly to people,
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ter brez prestanka klepeta z ljudmi,
00:51
you don't actually want to spend all the time talking.
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v bistvu noče neprestano govoriti.
To je zares utrujajoče.
00:54
It's really, really tiring.
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00:55
Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts.
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Včasih bi rad samo tiho stal tam, sam s svojimi mislimi.
00:59
Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window.
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Včasih bi rad stal v kotu in zrl skozi okno.
01:04
Now the problem is, when you can't smoke,
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Če pri tem ne sme kaditi,
pa vseeno stoji tam in zre ven skozi okno,
01:08
if you stand and stare out of the window on your own,
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je videti kot nedružaben bedak brez prijateljev.
01:11
you're an antisocial, friendless idiot.
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(smeh)
01:14
(Laughter)
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Če pa stoječ zre skozi okno in v rokah drži cigareto,
01:16
If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette,
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01:19
you're a fucking philosopher.
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je prekleti filozof.
01:21
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
(aplavz)
01:24
(Applause)
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Pomena postavljanja stvari v nove okvire
01:30
So the power of reframing things
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torej ne gre zanemariti.
01:34
cannot be overstated.
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Gre za povsem isto stvar, isto aktivnost,
01:37
What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity,
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01:40
but one of them makes you feel great
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ampak en način vam daje krasen občutek,
pri drugem pa se, zaradi majhne spremembe,
01:43
and the other one, with just a small change of posture,
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počutite prav bedno.
01:46
makes you feel terrible.
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In mislim, da je ena od težav klasične ekonomije v tem,
01:49
And I think one of the problems with classical economics is,
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da se absolutno preveč ukvarja z realnostjo.
01:52
it's absolutely preoccupied with reality.
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01:54
And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness.
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Realnost pa ni posebej dober vodič k sreči.
Zakaj so, na primer,
01:59
Why, for example, are pensioners much happier
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upokojenci veliko srečnejši
od mladih nezaposlenih ljudi?
02:04
than the young unemployed?
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02:06
Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life.
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Obe skupini sta v istem življenjskem položaju.
02:09
You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.
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Oba imata preveč časa in malo denarja.
Ampak upokojenci so menda zelo zelo srečni,
02:13
But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy,
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medtem ko so nezaposleni izjemno nesrečni in depresivni.
02:16
whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed.
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Po moje je razlog v tem, da upokojenci verjamejo, da so se odločili, da bodo upokojenci,
02:20
The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe
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02:23
they've chosen to be pensioners,
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medtem ko se mladim nezaposlenim zdi,
02:24
whereas the young unemployed feel it's been thrust upon them.
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da so bili v to pahnjeni.
02:29
In England, the upper-middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly,
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Višji srednji sloj v Angliji je to težavo rešil na popoln način,
saj so nezaposlenosti spremenili oznako.
02:34
because they've re-branded unemployment.
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Če ste predstavnik angleškega višjega srednjega razreda,
02:36
If you're an upper-middle-class English person,
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02:38
you call unemployment "a year off."
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boste nezaposlenost poimenovali "prosto leto".
02:41
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
To pa zato, ker je imeti nezaposlenega sina nekje v Manchestru
02:43
And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester
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02:46
is really quite embarrassing.
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res precej sramotno,
02:48
But having a son who's unemployed in Thailand
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medtem ko je imeti nezaposlenega sina, ki je na Tajskem,
02:51
is really viewed as quite an accomplishment.
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videti kot precejšnji dosežek.
02:53
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Mislim, da moči spreminjanja oznak stvarem...
02:56
But actually, the power to re-brand things --
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02:58
to understand that our experiences, costs, things
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razumevanja, da naše izkušnje, stroški, stvari
03:03
don't actually much depend on what they really are,
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niso tako odvisni od tega, kar v resnici so,
03:06
but on how we view them --
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temveč od tega, kako jih vidimo...
Iskreno mislim, da tega ne moremo preveč poudariti.
03:08
I genuinely think can't be overstated.
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03:10
There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to,
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Daniel Pink, se mi zdi, omenja eksperiment,
pri katerem dva psa postavite v škatlo
03:13
where you put two dogs in a box
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03:15
and the box has an electric floor.
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z električnim tokom na dnu.
Vsake toliko časa tja spustite elektriko,
03:20
Every now and then, an electric shock is applied to the floor,
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kar povzroči bolečino psoma.
03:25
which pains the dogs.
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03:27
The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box.
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Razlika je samo v tem, da ima eden od psov na svoji polovici škatle majhen gumb.
03:31
And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops.
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Ko se ga dotakne, električni šok preneha.
Drugi pes nima tega gumba.
03:36
The other dog doesn't have the button.
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Izpostavljen je povsem enaki ravni bolečine,
03:39
It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box,
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03:43
but it has no control over the circumstances.
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le da nima nadzora nad okoliščinami.
V splošnem je lahko prvi pes dokaj zadovoljen.
03:47
Generally, the first dog can be relatively content.
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Drugi pa pade v popolno depresijo.
03:50
The second dog lapses into complete depression.
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Okoliščine naših življenj morda za našo srečo niso tako pomembne
03:54
The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness
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03:58
than the sense of control we feel over our lives.
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kot občutek nadzora nad lastnim življenjem.
04:03
It's an interesting question.
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Gre za zanimivo vprašanje.
Sprašujemo se... celotna razprava v zahodnem svetu
04:06
We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world
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04:09
is about the level of taxation.
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se suče okoli ravni obdavčitve.
Mislim, da je treba zahtevati drugačno razpravo,
04:11
But I think there's another debate to be asked,
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04:13
which is the level of control we have over our tax money,
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namreč o tem, kakšen nadzor imamo nad svojimi davki.
Nekaj, kar nas stane deset funtov, bo v določenem kontekstu prekletstvo.
04:17
that what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse;
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V drugem kontekstu bo morda istih deset funtov pravi blagoslov.
04:21
what costs us 10 pounds in a different context, we may actually welcome.
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Veste, če plačate 20,000 funtov v zdravstveno blagajno,
04:27
You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax toward health,
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je to kaplja v morje.
04:31
and you're merely feeling a mug.
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04:33
Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward,
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Če teh 20,000 funtov podarite bolnišničnemu oddelku,
04:37
and you're called a philanthropist.
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vas bodo imenovali za dobrotnika.
Verjetno sem v napačni državi, da bi govoril o pripravljenosti za plačevanje davkov.
04:40
I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax.
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04:43
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
04:45
So I'll give you one in return: how you frame things really matters.
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Zato bom povedal nekaj drugega. Res je pomembno, kako formulirate stvari.
04:50
Do you call it "The bailout of Greece"?
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Je to res reševanje Grčije
04:52
Or "The bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece"?
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ali je reševanje neumnih bank, ki so posojale Grčiji?
04:56
(Laughter)
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Ker v bistvu gre za isto stvar.
04:57
Because they are actually the same thing.
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To, kako jo poimenujete, vpliva na to,
04:59
What you call them actually affects how you react to them,
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kako nanjo reagirate, instinktivno in moralno.
05:03
viscerally and morally.
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Če sem pošten, mislim, da je psihološka vrednost nekaj odličnega.
05:05
I think psychological value is great, to be absolutely honest.
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05:08
One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater,
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Moj dober prijatelj, profesor po imenu Nick Chater,
05:11
who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London,
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ki uči znanost odločanja v Londonu,
verjame, da bi morali manj časa posvečati
05:14
believes we should spend far less time looking into humanity's hidden depths,
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raziskovanju skritih globin človeštva
05:18
and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows.
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in več časa raziskovati skrite plitkosti.
Mislim, da to drži.
05:22
I think that's true, actually.
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05:23
I think impressions have an insane effect on what we think and what we do.
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Mislim, da imajo vtisi nor učinek
na to, kar mislimo in kar počnemo.
Ampak nimamo pa res dobrega modela človeške psihologije.
05:29
But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology --
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05:32
at least pre-Kahneman, perhaps,
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Vsaj pred Kahnemanom morda
05:34
we didn't have a really good model of human psychology
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nismo imeli res dobrega modela človeške psihologije,
05:37
to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics.
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ki bi stal poleg modelov inženirstva in neoklasične ekonomije.
05:42
So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model.
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Ljudje, ki so verjeli v psihološke rešitve, niso imeli modela.
05:46
We didn't have a framework.
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Nismo imeli okvira.
05:48
This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls
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Temu Charlie Munger, poslovni partner Warrena Buffetta, pravi
"mreža, na katero obešamo svoje ideje".
05:51
"a latticework on which to hang your ideas."
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Inženirji, ekonomisti, klasični ekonomisti
05:54
Engineers, economists, classical economists
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so vsi imeli zelo močno obstoječo mrežo,
05:57
all had a very, very robust existing latticework
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06:00
on which practically every idea could be hung.
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na katero so lahko obesili praktično vsako idejo.
06:03
We merely have a collection of random individual insights
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Mi imamo samo zbirko naključnih posameznih vpogledov
06:06
without an overall model.
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brez celostnega modela.
06:08
And what that means is that, in looking at solutions,
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In to pomeni, da smo pri iskanju rešitev
verjetno preveč prednosti dali
06:13
we've probably given too much priority
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t.i. tehničnim inženirskim rešitvam, Newtonovskim rešitvam,
06:16
to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions,
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mnogo premalo pa psihološkim.
06:20
and not nearly enough to the psychological ones.
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06:22
You know my example of the Eurostar:
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Saj poznate moj primer Eurostara.
06:24
six million pounds spent
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Šest milijonov funtov so porabili, da so čas potovanja
06:26
to reduce the journey time between Paris and London
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med Parizom in Londonom skrajšali za okoli 40 minut.
06:29
by about 40 minutes.
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06:31
For 0.01 percent of this money, you could have put wi-fi on the trains,
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Za 0,01 odstotka tega denarja bi lahko na vlake namestili brezžični internet,
06:35
which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey,
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kar ne bi skrajšalo trajanja potovanja,
06:38
but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefulness far more.
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bi pa zelo izboljšalo njegovo uporabnost in počutje med njim.
Za morda deset odstotkov tega denarja
06:43
For maybe 10 percent of the money,
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06:44
you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels
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bi lahko vse največje svetovne moške in ženske supermodele plačali,
da bi se sprehajali po vlaki in potnikom delili brezplačne kozarce Chateau Petrusa.
06:48
to walk up and down the train handing out free Château Pétrus
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06:51
to all the passengers.
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06:52
(Laughter)
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Še vedno bi vam ostalo pet milijard funtov drobiža
06:53
You'd still have five million pounds in change,
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06:56
and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.
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in ljudje bi zahtevali, naj vlak vozi počasneje.
06:58
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Zakaj nismo imeli možnosti,
07:02
Why were we not given the chance to solve that problem psychologically?
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da bi ta problem rešili psihološko?
07:06
I think it's because there's an imbalance,
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Mislim, da zato, ker obstaja neravnotežje, asimetrija
07:08
an asymmetry in the way we treat creative, emotionally driven psychological ideas
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med tem, kako obravnavamo kreativne, čustveno utemeljene psihološke ideje,
in tem, kako obravnavamo racionalne, numerične, na tabelah temelječe ideje.
07:15
versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas.
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Če ste kreativni, mislim da morate upravičeno
07:20
If you're a creative person, I think, quite rightly,
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dati vse svoje zamisli v potrditev ljudem,
07:22
you have to share all your ideas for approval
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07:24
with people much more rational than you.
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ki so bolj racionalni od vas.
07:26
You have to go in and have a cost-benefit analysis,
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Napraviti morate analizo stroškov in koristi,
študijo izvedljivosti, oceno dobička glede na vložek itd.
07:30
a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth.
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In verjetno je tako prav.
07:33
And I think that's probably right.
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07:35
But this does not apply the other way around.
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Ampak obratno pa ne velja.
Ljudje z obstoječim okvirom,
07:38
People who have an existing framework --
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07:40
an economic framework, an engineering framework --
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naj bo ekonomski, inženirski,
mislijo, da je logika rešitev sama po sebi.
07:43
feel that, actually, logic is its own answer.
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07:46
What they don't say is, "Well, the numbers all seem to add up,
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Ne rečejo si: "No, številke se ujemajo,
07:49
but before I present this idea, I'll show it to some really crazy people
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ampak preden predstavim zamisel, jo bom pokazal nekaj res norim ljudem,
da vidim, če si lahko izmislijo kaj boljšega."
07:53
to see if they can come up with something better."
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07:55
And so we -- artificially, I think -- prioritize
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Mislim, da na umeten način dajemo prednost
mehanističnim idejam pred psihološkimi.
07:58
what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas.
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08:02
An example of a great psychological idea:
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Tole je primer odlične psihološke ideje:
08:04
the single best improvement in passenger satisfaction
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najpomembnejša izboljšava zadovoljstva potnikov na londonski podzemni železnici glede na vsak vložen funt
08:07
on the London Underground,
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08:08
per pound spent,
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se je zgodila brez dodatnih vozil ali spremembe njihove pogostosti,
08:10
came when they didn't add any extra trains,
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08:12
nor change the frequency of the trains;
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08:14
they put dot matrix display boards on the platforms --
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temveč ko so na perone uvedli ekrane s točkastimi oznakami položaja vozil.
08:18
because the nature of a wait is not just dependent on its numerical quality,
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Kajti narava čakanja
ni odvisna samo od njegove numerične lastnosti, njegovega trajanja,
08:22
its duration,
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temveč od ravni negotovosti, ki jo občutite med čakanjem.
08:24
but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait.
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Sedemminutno čakanje na vlak, pod uro, ki odšteva čas,
08:27
Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock
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nam gre manj na živce,
08:30
is less frustrating and irritating
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08:32
than waiting four minutes, knuckle biting, going,
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kakor če čakamo štiri minute in si grizemo nohte,
ko se sprašujemo, kdaj bo ta presneti vlak že prispel.
08:35
"When's this train going to damn well arrive?"
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Tole pa je čudovit primer psihološke rešitve iz Koreje.
08:38
Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution
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08:40
deployed in Korea.
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08:41
Red traffic lights have a countdown delay.
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Rdeče luči na semaforjih odštevajo čas do spremembe.
To dokazano zmanjšuje število nesreč.
08:44
It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments.
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08:47
Why?
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Zakaj? Ker se jeza, nestrpnost in splošna živčnost na cesti
08:48
Because road rage, impatience and general irritation are massively reduced
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izjemno zmanjšajo, če lahko dejansko vidite, koliko časa morate čakati.
08:52
when you can actually see the time you have to wait.
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08:55
In China, not really understanding the principle behind this,
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Na Kitajskem tega principa ne razumejo čisto v redu,
08:58
they applied the same principle to green traffic lights --
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zato so isto načelo vpeljali za zelene luči.
09:01
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Kar ni tako odlična zamisel.
09:05
which isn't a great idea.
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Dvesto metrov ste oddaljeni, vidite, da imate še pet sekund časa, seveda boste pohodili plin.
09:07
You're 200 yards away, you realize you've got five seconds to go,
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09:10
you floor it.
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09:11
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
Korejci so marljivo testirali obe možnosti.
09:14
The Koreans, very assiduously, did test both.
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Število nesreč se zmanjša, če z merilcem časa označite rdečo luč;
09:17
The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights;
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če označite zeleno, se poveča.
09:20
it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights.
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Samo to bi rad dosegel pri človeškem odločanju,
09:23
This is all I'm asking for, really, in human decision making,
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da bi upoštevali te tri stvari.
09:26
is the consideration of these three things.
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Ne zahtevam popolne prevlade enega načina nad drugim.
09:28
I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other.
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Pravim samo, da ko rešujete probleme,
09:31
I'm merely saying that when you solve problems,
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enakomerno upoštevajte vse tri
09:33
you should look at all three of these equally,
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in kolikor je mogoče
09:36
and you should seek as far as possible
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iščite rešitve, ki so nekje v zlati sredini.
09:38
to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle.
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Če pogledate kak dober posel,
09:41
If you actually look at a great business,
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boste skoraj vedno videli preplet vseh teh treh stvari.
09:43
you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play.
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09:46
Really successful businesses --
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Res zelo uspešna podjetja...
09:48
Google is a great, great technological success,
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Google je odličen tehnološki uspeh,
09:51
but it's also based on a very good psychological insight:
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a temelji tudi na zelo dobri psihološki bazi:
ljudje verjamejo da je nekaj, kar počne samo eno stvar,
09:55
people believe something that only does one thing
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09:57
is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else.
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boljše od nečesa, kar počne to stvar in še nekaj drugega.
10:02
It's an innate thing called "goal dilution."
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Gre za prirojeno stvar z imenom redčenje.
10:04
Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this.
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Ayelet Fischbach je o tem napisal članek.
10:07
Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less,
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V času Googla je bolj ali manj vsak
hotel biti portal.
10:10
was trying to be a portal.
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Ja, ima iskalnik,
10:11
Yes, there's a search function, but you also have weather,
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ampak ima tudi vreme, šport in kakšno novico.
10:14
sports scores, bits of news.
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Google je razumel, da če je samo iskalnik,
10:17
Google understood that if you're just a search engine,
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bodo ljudje mislili, da je zelo zelo dober iskalnik.
10:19
people assume you're a very, very good search engine.
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10:22
All of you know this, actually, from when you go in to buy a television,
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Saj to veste sami,
od takrat, ko ste šli kupovat televizijo.
Na slabši strani izbora TV-jev z ravnim ekranom
10:26
and in the shabbier end of the row of flat-screen TVs,
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lahko najdete prezira vredne zadeve, ki se imenujejo kombinirani TV in DVD predvajalniki.
10:29
you can see, are these rather despised things
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10:31
called "combined TV and DVD players."
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Pojma nimamo o kakovosti teh stvari,
10:35
And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things,
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ampak ko zagledamo kombiniran TV in DVD predvajalnik, rečemo: "Fuj.
10:38
but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck.
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10:41
It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player."
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Verjetno je skupek zanič televizije in ničvrednega DVD predvajalnika."
10:45
So we walk out of the shops with one of each.
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In iz trgovine odidemo z vsakim posebej.
Google pa je tako psihološki kot tehnološki uspeh.
10:48
Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one.
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Predlagam, da uporabimo psihologijo za reševanje težav,
10:54
I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems
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10:56
that we didn't even realize were problems at all.
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za katere sploh nismo vedeli, da so težave.
To je moj predlog, kako ljudi navaditi, da bodo dokončali svoj odmerek antibiotikov.
10:59
This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics.
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Ne dajte jim 24 belih tablet.
11:03
Don't give them 24 white pills;
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11:04
give them 18 white pills and six blue ones
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Dajte jim 18 belih in šest modrih
11:07
and tell them to take the white pills first,
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in jim recite, naj najprej vzamejo bele in nato modre.
11:09
and then take the blue ones.
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Temu pravimo oblikovanje skupin.
11:12
It's called "chunking."
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11:13
The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater
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Verjetnost, da bodo ljudje prišli do konca, je veliko večja,
11:16
when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle.
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če nekje v sredini obstaja vmesni cilj.
Menim, da je ena največjih napak ekonomije v tem,
11:20
One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics
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da ne razume, da je vsaka stvar,
11:22
is it fails to understand that what something is --
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11:24
whether it's retirement, unemployment, cost --
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naj bo upokojitev, brezposelnost, strošek,
11:28
is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning.
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skupek svojih številk in svojega pomena.
Tole je cestninska postaja v Britaniji.
11:33
This is a toll crossing in Britain.
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Pogosto se tu naredijo kolone.
11:36
Quite often queues happen at the tolls.
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11:39
Sometimes you get very, very severe queues.
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Včasih so zelo zelo dolge.
11:41
You could apply the same principle, actually,
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Isto načelo bi lahko uporabili
11:43
to the security lanes in airports.
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pri varnostnih pregledih na letališčih.
Kaj bi se zgodilo, če bi lahko plačali dvakrat več za prehod mostu,
11:45
What would happen if you could actually pay twice as much money
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11:48
to cross the bridge,
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vendar bi za to ceno lahko odpeljali skozi hitri pas?
11:49
but go through a lane that's an express lane?
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11:51
It's not an unreasonable thing to do;
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To ni nerazumno. Je ekonomsko učinkovito.
11:53
it's an economically efficient thing to do.
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Čas enim pomeni več kot drugim.
11:55
Time means more to some people than others.
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11:57
If you're waiting trying to get to a job interview,
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Če ste na poti na razgovor za službo,
11:59
you'd patently pay a couple of pounds more to go through the fast lane.
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boste brez dvoma plačali nekaj funtov več, da bi šli na hitrejši pas.
Če ste na poti na obisk k tašči,
12:04
If you're on the way to visit your mother-in-law,
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12:06
you'd probably prefer --
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boste verjetno raje ostali na levem.
12:07
(Laughter)
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12:08
you'd probably prefer to stay on the left.
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Edina težava je v tem, da če uvedete to ekonomsko učinkovito rešitev,
12:11
The only problem is if you introduce this economically efficient solution,
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jo bodo ljudje sovražili.
12:15
people hate it ...
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12:16
because they think you're deliberately creating delays at the bridge
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Kajti mislili bodo, da namenoma ustvarjate zamude na mostu,
da bi povečali prihodek
12:20
in order to maximize your revenue,
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12:21
and, "Why on earth should I pay to subsidize your incompetence?"
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in "zakaj hudiča naj bi jaz podpiral vašo nesposobnost?"
12:25
On the other hand, change the frame slightly
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Po drugi strani, če malo spremenite okvir
12:27
and create charitable yield management,
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in mu dodate dobrodelno noto,
tako da dodaten denar ne gre upravljavcu, ampak dobrodelni ustanovi,
12:30
so the extra money you get goes not to the bridge company,
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12:33
it goes to charity ...
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se bo pripravljenost plačati povsem spremenila.
12:35
and the mental willingness to pay completely changes.
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Tako imate ekonomsko učinkovito rešitev,
12:39
You have a relatively economically efficient solution,
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ki jo javnost podpira
12:42
but one that actually meets with public approval
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12:44
and even a small degree of affection,
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in ji je celo malo naklonjena,
12:46
rather than being seen as bastardy.
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namesto da bi se ji zdela podla.
12:49
So where economists make the fundamental mistake
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Ekonomisti torej največjo napako naredijo,
12:52
is they think that money is money.
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772442
1965
ko mislijo, da je denar le denar.
Ampak moja bolečina ob plačilu petih funtov
12:55
Actually, my pain experienced in paying five pounds
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4231
12:59
is not just proportionate to the amount,
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ni samo sorazmerna vsoti,
13:01
but where I think that money is going.
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temveč tudi temu, kam po mojem mnenju ta denar gre.
Razumevanje tega bi prineslo revolucijo v davčno politiko.
13:04
And I think understanding that could revolutionize tax policy.
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13:07
It could revolutionize the public services.
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2003
Revolucija bi prišla v javne službe.
13:09
It could actually change things quite significantly.
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Res bi lahko temeljito spremenila stvari.
13:12
[Ludwig Von Mises is my hero.]
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Delo tega tipa bi morali vsi prebrati.
13:13
Here's a guy you all need to study.
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Gre za avstrijskega ekonomista,
13:15
He's an Austrian School economist
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1605
ki je deloval v prvi polovici 20. stoletja na Dunaju.
13:17
who was first active in the first half of the 20th century in Vienna.
269
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4564
13:21
What was interesting about the Austrian School
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2192
Za avstrijsko šolo je zanimivo,
13:23
is they actually grew up alongside Freud.
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da se je razvila skupaj s Freudom.
13:26
And so they're predominantly interested in psychology.
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Zato pripadnike zanima predvsem psihologija.
13:29
They believed that there was a discipline called praxeology,
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Verjamejo, da obstaja disciplina z imenom prakseologija,
13:34
which is a prior discipline to the study of economics.
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ki je bila predhodnica ekonomije.
13:36
Praxeology is the study of human choice, action and decision-making.
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Prakseologija je veda o človekovi izbiri, delovanju in odločanju.
13:41
I think they're right.
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Mislim, da imajo prav.
Mislim, da je naša današnja nevarnost to,
13:43
I think the danger we have in today's world
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2068
da ekonomija kot veda
13:45
is we have the study of economics
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sebe razume kot prednico psihologije človeka.
13:47
considers itself to be a prior discipline to the study of human psychology.
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13:51
But as Charlie Munger says, "If economics isn't behavioral,
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A kot pravi Charlie Munger: "Če ekonomija ni vedenjska,
potem ne vem, kaj je."
13:54
I don't know what the hell is."
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1547
Von Mises, zanimivo, verjame, da je ekonomija samo podvrsta psihologije.
13:57
Von Mises, interestingly, believes economics is just a subset of psychology.
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5801
14:02
I think he just refers to economics
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1905
Mislim, da ekonomijo označuje kot
14:04
as "the study of human praxeology under conditions of scarcity."
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3280
"študij človekove prakseologije v razmerah pomanjkanja".
Von Mises, kot mnogi drugi,
14:09
But Von Mises, among many other things,
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po moje uporablja analogijo, ki je verjetno najboljša utemeljitev in razlaga
14:12
I think uses an analogy which is probably the best justification and explanation
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14:16
for the value of marketing, the value of perceived value
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pomena marketinga, pomena zaznane vrednosti,
ter dejstva, da bi jo morali razumeti kot povsem enakovredno
14:21
and the fact that we should treat it as being absolutely equivalent
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3277
14:24
to any other kind of value.
289
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1483
katerikoli drugi vrednosti.
Vsi mi - celo tisti, ki delajo v marketingu - smo nagnjeni
14:26
We tend to, all of us, even those of us who work in marketing,
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2952
k razumevanju vrednosti z dveh vidikov.
14:29
think of value in two ways:
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1298
Eno je realna vrednost,
14:30
the real value, which is when you make something in a factory
292
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2897
tisto, kar naredite v tovarni ali storitev, ki jo nudite,
drugo je nekakšna dvomljiva vrednost,
14:33
or provide a service,
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1154
14:34
and then there's a dubious value,
294
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tisto, kar ustvarite s spreminjanjem človeškega pogleda na stvari.
14:36
which you create by changing the way people look at things.
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2811
Von Mises je to delitev popolnoma zavrnil.
14:39
Von Mises completely rejected this distinction.
296
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2294
Uporabil je naslednji primer.
14:41
And he used this following analogy:
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1891
Skliceval se je na čudne ekonomiste z imenom francoski fiziokrati,
14:43
he referred to strange economists called the French physiocrats,
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5333
ki so verjeli,da je edina prava vrednost tisto, kar pridobite iz zemlje.
14:48
who believed that the only true value was what you extracted from the land.
299
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3630
Če ste ovčar ali delavec v kamnolomu ali kmet,
14:52
So if you're a shepherd or a quarryman or a farmer,
300
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14:54
you created true value.
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1421
ustvarjate pravo vrednost.
14:56
If however, you bought some wool from the shepherd
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2859
Če pa ste od ovčarja kupili nekaj volne,
jo spremenili v kapo in izdelku dodali maržo,
14:59
and charged a premium for converting it into a hat,
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2981
v resnici niste dodajali vrednosti,
15:02
you weren't actually creating value,
304
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1782
15:04
you were exploiting the shepherd.
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1760
ampak izkoriščali ovčarja.
15:06
Now, Von Mises said that modern economists make exactly the same mistake
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3723
Von Mises pravi, da moderni ekonomisti delajo enako napako
v zvezi z oglaševanjem in marketingom.
15:10
with regard to advertising and marketing.
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2057
15:12
He says if you run a restaurant,
308
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1882
Pravi, da če imate restavracijo,
15:14
there is no healthy distinction to be made
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2239
ne more biti prave razlike
med vrednostjo, ki jo ustvarite s kuhanjem
15:17
between the value you create by cooking the food
310
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2553
15:19
and the value you create by sweeping the floor.
311
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2303
in tisto, ki jo ustvarite s pometanjem.
Ena morda napravi primarni izdelek,
15:22
One of them creates, perhaps, the primary product --
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2490
15:24
the thing we think we're paying for --
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1865
tisto, kar gost plača,
druga pa ustvari okolje,
15:26
the other one creates a context within which we can enjoy
314
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2841
v katerem lahko ta izdelek uživamo.
15:29
and appreciate that product.
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1524
Prepričanje, da bi ena morala biti pomembnejša od druge,
15:31
And the idea that one of them should have priority over the other
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3172
je v temelju zgrešeno.
15:34
is fundamentally wrong.
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1150
15:36
Try this quick thought experiment:
318
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1667
Napravimo tale hitri miselni poskus.
15:37
imagine a restaurant that serves Michelin-starred food,
319
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2651
Predstavljajte si restavracijo, ki nudi hrano, nagrajeno z Michelin zvezdicami,
restavracija sama pa smrdi po odtoku
15:40
but where the restaurant smells of sewage
320
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2647
in na tleh so človeški izločki.
15:43
and there's human feces on the floor.
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15:45
(Laughter)
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1409
15:46
The best thing you can do there to create value
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2493
Največ, kar lahko naredite, da bi temu dodali vrednost,
ni da izboljšate hrano,
15:49
is not actually to improve the food still further,
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3016
15:52
it's to get rid of the smell and clean up the floor.
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2799
ampak da restavracijo očistite in odstranite smrad.
Ključno je, da to razumemo.
15:57
And it's vital we understand this.
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2553
Če se vam to zdi kot nekaj čudnega in nejasnega...
16:00
If that seems like a sort of strange, abstruse thing --
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2647
britanska pošta je imela 98-odstoten uspeh
16:02
in the UK, the post office had a 98 percent success rate
328
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3898
16:06
at delivering first-class mail the next day.
329
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2184
pri dostavi pošte prvega razreda v naslednjem dnevu.
Odločili so se, da to ni dovolj
16:09
They decided this wasn't good enough,
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1885
in so hoteli doseči 99 odstotkov.
16:11
and they wanted to get it up to 99.
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1792
Ta trud je organizacijo skoraj uničil.
16:14
The effort to do that almost broke the organization.
332
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3373
Če bi hkrati vprašali ljudi,
16:18
If, at the same time, you'd gone and asked people,
333
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2390
kolikšen odstotek prvorazredne pošte prispe naslednji dan,
16:21
"What percentage of first-class mail arrives the next day?"
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bi bil povprečni odgovor med 50 in 60 odstotki.
16:24
the average answer, or the modal answer, would have been "50 to 60 percent."
335
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3906
Če je vaša predstava veliko slabša od realnosti,
16:28
Now, if your perception is much worse than your reality,
336
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2714
zakaj hudiča bi spreminjali realnost?
16:31
what on earth are you doing trying to change the reality?
337
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3024
To je isto kot izboljšanje hrane v restavraciji, ki smrdi.
16:34
That's like trying to improve the food in a restaurant that stinks.
338
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3615
Najprej morate
16:39
What you need to do is, first of all, tell people
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povedati ljudem,
da 98 odstotkov prvorazredne pošte pride do naslovnika naslednji dan.
16:42
that 98 percent of first-class mail gets there the next day.
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16:46
That's pretty good.
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To je precej dobro.
V Britaniji je še boljša primerjava,
16:48
I would argue, in Britain, there's a much better frame of reference,
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če ljudem poveste,
16:51
which is to tell people that more first-class mail arrives the next day
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da naslednji dan prispe več prvorazredne pošte
tu kot v Nemčiji.
16:55
in the UK than in Germany, because generally, in Britain,
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Kajti v splošnem Britance lahko zadovoljite z nečim,
16:57
if you want to make us happy about something,
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že če jim poveste, da so boljši kot Nemci.
17:00
just tell us we do it better than the Germans.
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(smeh)
17:02
(Laughter)
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(aplavz)
17:04
(Applause)
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Izberite svoj okvir in dojeto vrednost
17:06
Choose your frame of reference and the perceived value,
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17:09
and therefore, the actual value is completely transformed.
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in to bo povsem spremenilo dejansko vrednost.
Glede Nemcev moram reči,
17:13
It has to be said of the Germans
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17:14
that the Germans and the French are doing a brilliant job
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da oni in Francozi odlično opravljajo svoje delo
pri oblikovanju enotne Evrope.
17:17
of creating a united Europe.
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17:18
The only thing they didn't expect is they're uniting Europe
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Edino, česar ne pričakujejo, je, da Evropo združuje
17:21
through a shared mild hatred of the French and Germans.
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rahlo sovraštvo do nemcev in francozov, ki si ga deli.
Ampak jaz sem Britanec in to nam je všeč.
17:24
But I'm British; that's the way we like it.
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17:26
(Laughter)
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2125
Opazili boste tudi, da je naša percepcija v vsakem primeru nepopolna.
17:29
What you'll also notice is that, in any case,
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17:31
our perception is leaky.
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1190
17:32
We can't tell the difference between the quality of the food
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Ne poznamo razlike med kakovostjo hrane
in okoljem, v katerem jo užijemo.
17:35
and the environment in which we consume it.
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Vsi ste ta pojav videli,
17:37
All of you will have seen this phenomenon
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če ste odpeljali avto v avtopralnico ali ga pustili, da vam ga parkirajo.
17:39
if you have your car washed or valeted.
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17:41
When you drive away, your car feels as if it drives better.
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Ko ste se odpeljali stran, ste imeli občutek, da se avto lepše vozi.
17:44
(Laughter)
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Razlog za to,
17:46
And the reason for this --
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razen če so vmes skrivoma zamenjali olje
17:47
unless my car valet mysteriously is changing the oil
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in opravili delo, ki ga nismo plačali in ne vemo zanj,
17:50
and performing work which I'm not paying him for and I'm unaware of --
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je v tem, da je naše dojemanje v vsakem primeru nepopolno.
17:53
is because perception is, in any case, leaky.
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2307
17:55
Analgesics that are branded are more effective at reducing pain
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Analgetiki znanih znamk bolj učinkovito odpravljajo bolečino
17:59
than analgesics that are not branded.
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kot analgetiki neznanih znamk.
18:01
I don't just mean through reported pain reduction --
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In to ne samo glede na poročila o zmanjšanju bolečine,
ampak glede na dejanske meritve zmanjšanja.
18:04
actual measured pain reduction.
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18:05
And so perception actually is leaky in any case.
374
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Dojemanje je res nepopolno.
Če torej storite kaj, kar je v določenem smislu dojeto kot slabo,
18:11
So if you do something that's perceptually bad in one respect,
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lahko drugim napravite škodo.
18:14
you can damage the other.
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18:15
Thank you very much.
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Hvala lepa.
18:16
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
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