Rory Sutherland: Perspective is everything

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevoditelj: SIBELA KESAC Recezent: Senzos Osijek

Ovo što držim u ruci

What you have here

is an electronic cigarette.

je elektronska cigareta.

Otkad su je izumili, prije godinu-dvije,

It's something that, since it was invented a year or two ago,

neizmjerno me usrećila.

has given me untold happiness.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Mislim da je to malim dijelom zbog nikotina,

A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine,

but there's something much bigger than that;

ali postoji jedan mnogo veći razlog.

which is, ever since, in the UK, they banned smoking in public places,

Naime, otkada su u Velikoj Britaniji zabranili pušenje na javnim mjestima

ja više nikada nisam uživao na niti jednoj zabavi .

I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

A razlog sam tek neki dan shvatio.

And the reason, I only worked out just the other day,

Kada odete na nekakvu zabavu,

which is: when you go to a drinks party and you stand up

stojite sa čašom crnog vina u ruci

and hold a glass of red wine and you talk endlessly to people,

i provodite vrijeme u beskrajnim razgovorima

you don't actually want to spend all the time talking.

zapravo i ne želite svo vrijeme provesti u razgovoru.

To je zaista, zaista zamorno.

It's really, really tiring.

Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts.

Nekad poželite samo stajati u miru, sami sa svojim mislima.

Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window.

Nekad poželite stati u kut, i gledati kroz prozor.

Now the problem is, when you can't smoke,

No, problem je u tome da, kada ne pušite,

i sami stojite u kutu i gledate kroz prozor

if you stand and stare out of the window on your own,

drugi misle da ste nedruštveni idiot koji nema prijatelja.

you're an antisocial, friendless idiot.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

Ali, ako gledate kroz prozor sa cigaretom u ruci

If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette,

you're a fucking philosopher.

e, onda ste prokleti filozof.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

(Pljesak)

(Applause)

Snaga stavljanja stvari u nove okvire

So the power of reframing things

ne može se precijeniti.

cannot be overstated.

U ovom slučaju radi se o istoj stvari, istoj radnji

What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity,

but one of them makes you feel great

no, od jedne se osjećate odlično,

a od druge, uz samo malu promjenu stava,

and the other one, with just a small change of posture,

se osjećate užasno.

makes you feel terrible.

I mislim da je jedan od problema klasične ekonomije taj

And I think one of the problems with classical economics is,

što je ona apsolutno zaokupljena sa stvarnošću

it's absolutely preoccupied with reality.

And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness.

a stvarnost nije baš dobar vodič na putu ka ljudskoj sreći.

Zašto su, na primjer,

Why, for example, are pensioners much happier

umirovljenici mnogo sretniji

od mladih nezaposlenih?

than the young unemployed?

Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life.

Napokon, i jedni i drugi su u potpuno jednakom položaju.

You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.

Imaju mnogo slobodnog vremena i ne baš previše novaca.

No, umirovljenici su jako, jako sretni

But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy,

dok su, nasuprot njima, nezaposleni izuzetno nesretni i deprimirani ljudi.

whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed.

Mislim da je razlog tomu taj da umirovljenici vjeruju da su oni odabrali da budu umirovljenici

The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe

they've chosen to be pensioners,

dok se mladi nezaposleni

whereas the young unemployed feel it's been thrust upon them.

osjećaju kao da im je to nametnuto.

In England, the upper-middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly,

U Engleskoj je gornja srednja klasa taj problem savršeno riješila

i to tako da su brendirali nezaposlenost.

because they've re-branded unemployment.

Ako ste Englez koji pripada gornjoj srednjoj klasi

If you're an upper-middle-class English person,

you call unemployment "a year off."

nezaposlenost nazivate "slobodnom godinom".

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

A to je zato što je u Manchesteru

And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester

is really quite embarrassing.

sramota imati nezaposlenog sina.

But having a son who's unemployed in Thailand

Ali, ako imate nezaposlenog sina u Tajlandu

is really viewed as quite an accomplishment.

to možete smatrati velikim postignućem.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

No, zapravo, moć da se stvari preimenuju--

But actually, the power to re-brand things --

to understand that our experiences, costs, things

razumijevanje da naša iskustva, cijene, stvari

don't actually much depend on what they really are,

zapravo i ne ovise o onome što one zaista i jesu

but on how we view them --

nego o tome kako mi na njih gledamo--

Ja zaista vjerujem da se to ne može previše naglašavati.

I genuinely think can't be overstated.

There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to,

Daniel Pink spominje eksperiment

u kojem stavite dva psa u kutiju

where you put two dogs in a box

and the box has an electric floor.

koja ima ožičeno dno.

Svako malo kroz pod pustite struju, proizvedete strujni udar

Every now and then, an electric shock is applied to the floor,

koji psima prouzročuje bol.

which pains the dogs.

The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box.

Jedina je razlika u tome što jedan pas u svojoj polovici kutije ima malo dugme.

And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops.

Kada pas pritisne dugme, strujni udar prestane.

Drugi pas nema to dugme.

The other dog doesn't have the button.

Oba psa su izložena jednakj razini boli, ali drugi pas

It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box,

but it has no control over the circumstances.

nema nikakve kontrole nad okolnostima.

Generalno gledano, prvi je pas relativno zadovoljan.

Generally, the first dog can be relatively content.

Drugi pas pada u potpunu depresiju.

The second dog lapses into complete depression.

Okolnosti u našem životu mogu imati manje utjecaja na našu sreću

The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness

than the sense of control we feel over our lives.

od osjećaja kontrole koju imamo u našim životima.

It's an interesting question.

Zanimljivo.

Pitamo se -- u zapadnom svijetu vodi se debata

We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world

is about the level of taxation.

o visini poreza.

Ali, ja mislim da bi se trebalo raspravljati o tome

But I think there's another debate to be asked,

which is the level of control we have over our tax money,

kakvu kontrolu imamo nad tim novcem kojeg plaćamo.

Nešto što nas košta 10 funti u jednom kontekstu može biti prokletstvo.

that what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse;

U drugačijem kontekstu to je zapravo može biti poželjno i dobrodošlo.

what costs us 10 pounds in a different context, we may actually welcome.

Znate, kada platite 20,000 funti u porezu za zdravstvo

You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax toward health,

to vam se čini kao kap u moru.

and you're merely feeling a mug.

Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward,

Ali, ako poklonite 20,000 funti štićenicima neke bolnice

and you're called a philanthropist.

smatrati će vas filantropom.

Vjerojatno sam u krivoj zemlji da bi govorio o voljnosti da se plaća porez.

I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So I'll give you one in return: how you frame things really matters.

Dat ću vam jedan drugi primjer. Zaista je važno kako oblikujemo stvari.

Do you call it "The bailout of Greece"?

Je li to spašavanje Grčke,

Or "The bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece"?

ili spašavanje grupe glupih banaka koje su novac posudile Grčkoj?

(Laughter)

Zato što su to iste stvari.

Because they are actually the same thing.

Kako ih nazivate utječe na to

What you call them actually affects how you react to them,

kako ćete na njih reagirati, instiktivno i moralno.

viscerally and morally.

Da budem iskren, mislim da je psihološka vrijednost nešto odlično.

I think psychological value is great, to be absolutely honest.

One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater,

Jedan od mojih dobrih prijatelja, Nick Chater,

who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London,

profesor Znanosti o odlučivanju (Decision Scienses) u Londonu,

vjeruje da bismo trebali provoditi puno manje vremena

believes we should spend far less time looking into humanity's hidden depths,

u proučavanju skrivenih ljudskih dubina

and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows.

i puno više vremena proučavati skrivene plićake.

I ja se s time slažem.

I think that's true, actually.

I think impressions have an insane effect on what we think and what we do.

Mislim da dojmovi mogu imati nevjerojatan učinak

na to kako mislimo i što radimo.

Ali, ono što nemamo je jedan zaista dobar model psihologije čovjeka.

But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology --

at least pre-Kahneman, perhaps,

Odnosno, do Kahnemana

we didn't have a really good model of human psychology

nismo imali dobar model psihologije čovjeka

to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics.

koji bi stajao pored modela strojarstva, ili neoklasične ekonomije.

So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model.

Ljudi koji su vjerovali u psihološka rješenja nisu imali nikakav model.

We didn't have a framework.

Nismo imali okvir.

This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls

To je ono što Warrenn Buffet, poslovni partner Charlija Mungera, naziva

"rešetka za okačiti ideje."

"a latticework on which to hang your ideas."

Inženjeri, ekonomisti, klasični ekonomisti,

Engineers, economists, classical economists

svi su oni imali veoma, veoma čvrste rešetke

all had a very, very robust existing latticework

on which practically every idea could be hung.

na koje se mogla okačiti gotovo svaka ideja.

We merely have a collection of random individual insights

Mi smo imali samo zbirku individualnih uvida

without an overall model.

bez sveobuhvatnog modela.

And what that means is that, in looking at solutions,

A to znači da smo prilkom traženja rješenja

pridavali previše pažnje onome što zovemo

we've probably given too much priority

tehničkim rješenjima, njutonovskim rješenjima,

to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions,

a ni približno dovoljno psihološkim.

and not nearly enough to the psychological ones.

You know my example of the Eurostar:

Poznat vam je moj primjer sa Eurostarom.

six million pounds spent

Šest milijuna funti potrošeno je da bi se put između Londona i Pariza

to reduce the journey time between Paris and London

skratio za oko 40 minuta.

by about 40 minutes.

For 0.01 percent of this money, you could have put wi-fi on the trains,

Za 0.01 posto tog novca moglo se vlakove opremiti bežičnim internetom,

which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey,

što ne bi skratilo vrijeme puta,

but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefulness far more.

ali bi se povećala korisnost i ugodnost.

Za možda 10 posto tog novca

For maybe 10 percent of the money,

you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels

mogli bi platiti sve vrhunske svjetske muške i ženske modele

da hodaju gore dolje po vlaku i putnicima toče besplatno vino.

to walk up and down the train handing out free Château Pétrus

to all the passengers.

(Laughter)

Ostalo bi vam 5 milijardi funti ,

You'd still have five million pounds in change,

and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.

a ljudi bi vas još i molili da vlakove usporite.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Zašto nam nisu dali šansu

Why were we not given the chance to solve that problem psychologically?

da riješimo problem psihološki?

I think it's because there's an imbalance,

Mislim da je to zato što imamo disbalans, asimetriju

an asymmetry in the way we treat creative, emotionally driven psychological ideas

između načina na koji postupamo s kreativnim, psihološkim idejama utemeljenim na emotivnim porivima

i načina na koji postupamo sa racionalnim, numeričkim idejama koje temeljimo na tabelama.

versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas.

Ako ste kreativna osoba, mislim da s pravom trebate

If you're a creative person, I think, quite rightly,

iznositi svoje ideje da bi ih prihvatili ljudi

you have to share all your ideas for approval

with people much more rational than you.

koji su puno racionalniji od vas samih.

You have to go in and have a cost-benefit analysis,

Morate napraviti troškovnik, analizu dobiti,

studije izvedivosti, studije o povratku uloženog i tako dalje.

a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth.

I mislim da je to u redu.

And I think that's probably right.

But this does not apply the other way around.

Ali, to ne vrijedi i obrnuto.

Ljudi koji imaju određeni postojeći okvir,

People who have an existing framework --

an economic framework, an engineering framework --

ekonomski okvir, inženjerski okvir,

misle da je logika rješenje sam po sebi.

feel that, actually, logic is its own answer.

What they don't say is, "Well, the numbers all seem to add up,

Oni ne kažu: "Pa, brojevi se, eto, slažu

but before I present this idea, I'll show it to some really crazy people

ali idem najprije iznesti svoju ideju nekim stvarno ludim ljudima

da vidim da li će oni smisliti nešto bolje."

to see if they can come up with something better."

And so we -- artificially, I think -- prioritize

I tako,na umjetan način, dajemo prednost

tim tzv. mehanističkim idejama umjesto psihološkim idejama.

what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas.

An example of a great psychological idea:

Jedan primjer odlične psihološke ideje:

the single best improvement in passenger satisfaction

Najveće poboljšanje zadovoljstva putnika Londonske podzemne željeznice na svaku potrošenu funtu

on the London Underground,

per pound spent,

dogodio se, ne onda kad su dodani novi vlakovi ili se promijenila frekvencija vlakova,

came when they didn't add any extra trains,

nor change the frequency of the trains;

they put dot matrix display boards on the platforms --

već onda kada su postavljeni zasloni ne kojima se vidi gdje se nalaze vlakovi.

because the nature of a wait is not just dependent on its numerical quality,

Zbog toga što sama priroda čekanja

ne ovisi samo o svom numeričkom svojstvu, o trajanju,

its duration,

već i o nivou neizvjesnosti koju osjećate dok čekate.

but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait.

Čekati vlak sedam minuta dok gledate u sat koji odbrojava

Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock

je manje frustrirajuće i iritantno

is less frustrating and irritating

than waiting four minutes, knuckle biting, going,

nego kada čekate, grizete nokte i mislite si:

"Kad će već jednom stići taj prokleti vlak"

"When's this train going to damn well arrive?"

Evo jednog divnog primjera psihološkog rješenja primijenjenog u Koreji.

Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution

deployed in Korea.

Red traffic lights have a countdown delay.

Crvena svjetla na semaforu sa odbrojavanjem.

Dokazano se smanjuje broj nesreća.

It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments.

Why?

Zašto? Zato što se bijes na cesti, nestrpljenje i izirtiranost

Because road rage, impatience and general irritation are massively reduced

jako smanjuju kada vidite koliko još morate čekati.

when you can actually see the time you have to wait.

In China, not really understanding the principle behind this,

U Kini baš i nisu shvatili princip koji stoji iza toga

they applied the same principle to green traffic lights --

pa su tehniku primijenili na zelena svjetla.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Što baš i nije bila sjajna ideja.

which isn't a great idea.

Udaljeni ste 200 metara, vidite da imate još nekoliko sekundi, i nagazite na gas.

You're 200 yards away, you realize you've got five seconds to go,

you floor it.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Marljivi su Korenaci zapravo testirali obje mogućnosti.

The Koreans, very assiduously, did test both.

Kada ovo primijenite na crveno prometno svjetlo, broj nesreća se smanjuje,

The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights;

a kada primijenite na zeleno svjetlo, broj nesreća se povećava.

it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights.

To je sve što ja tražim, da se prilikom odlučivanja

This is all I'm asking for, really, in human decision making,

uzmu u obzir te tri stvari.

is the consideration of these three things.

Ne tražim da jedna ima prevlast nad ostalima.

I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other.

Samo kažem da biste kada pristupate problemu

I'm merely saying that when you solve problems,

trebali uzeti u obzir sve tri jednako

you should look at all three of these equally,

i, koliko god je to moguće,

and you should seek as far as possible

tražiti rješenja koja se nalaze u slatkoj sredini.

to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle.

Ako pogledate zaista uspješne poslove,

If you actually look at a great business,

skoro uvijek ćete vidjeti da su u igri sve tri stvari.

you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play.

Really successful businesses --

Zaista uspješne kompanije--

Google is a great, great technological success,

Google je ogroman, ogroman tehnološki uspjeh

but it's also based on a very good psychological insight:

ali je isto tako baziran da veoma dobroj psihološkoj bazi:

Ljudi vjeruju da kada nešto radi samo jednu stvar

people believe something that only does one thing

is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else.

onda to radi bolje od nečega što radi tu istu stvar i još nešto drugo.

It's an innate thing called "goal dilution."

To je urođena osobina, zove se razrjeđivanje cilja.

Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this.

Ayelet Fishbach je o tome napisao rad.

Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less,

U vrijeme Google-a svi ostali su manje-više

željeli postati portali.

was trying to be a portal.

Da, imate funkciju "traži",

Yes, there's a search function, but you also have weather,

ali isto tako imate i vrijeme, sportske rezultate, malo vijesti.

sports scores, bits of news.

U Google-u su shvatili da će, ako ste samo pretraživač,

Google understood that if you're just a search engine,

ljudi pretpostaviti da ste jako, jako dobar pretraživač.

people assume you're a very, very good search engine.

All of you know this, actually, from when you go in to buy a television,

Svima vama je to poznato

iz situacije kada kupujemo televizor.

I negdje na zadnjoj polici dućana sa televizorima sa ravnim ekranom

and in the shabbier end of the row of flat-screen TVs,

može se vidjeti one prezira vrijedne stvari koje se zovu kombinirani TV i DVD.

you can see, are these rather despised things

called "combined TV and DVD players."

Mi o kvaliteti tih stvari ne znamo ništa,

And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things,

ali, pogledamo te kombinirane TV-e i DVD-e i kažemo "Bljak!

but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck.

It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player."

Vjerojatno je to nekakvo smeće od televizije i smeće od DVD-a zajedno."

So we walk out of the shops with one of each.

I izlazimo iz trgovine sa po jednim komadom DVD-a i TV-a.

Google je podjednako psihološki i tehnološki uspjeh.

Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one.

Predlažem da koristimo psihologiju kod rješavanja problema

I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems

that we didn't even realize were problems at all.

koje nismo ni prepoznali.

Kako nagovoriti ljude da do kraja popiju propisanu dozu antibiotika?

This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics.

Nemojte im dati 24 bijele tablete.

Don't give them 24 white pills;

give them 18 white pills and six blue ones

Dajte im 18 bijelih i 6 plavih

and tell them to take the white pills first,

i kažite im da najprije popiju bijele tablete, a zatim da uzmu plave.

and then take the blue ones.

To se zove formiranje skupine.

It's called "chunking."

The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater

Vjerojatnost da će netko popiti dozu do kraja mnogo je veća

when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle.

kada je na sredini nekakva prekretnica.

Jedna od većih grešaka u ekonomiji, po mom mišljenju,

One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics

je ta da ne uspjeva razumijeti da je svaka stvar,

is it fails to understand that what something is --

whether it's retirement, unemployment, cost --

bilo da je mirovina, nezaposlenost, cijena,

is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning.

skup svoje količine i brojeva i značenja.

Ovo su naplatne kućice u Velikoj Britaniji.

This is a toll crossing in Britain.

Česte su kolone na njima.

Quite often queues happen at the tolls.

Sometimes you get very, very severe queues.

Nekada jako, jako duge kolone.

You could apply the same principle, actually,

Isti princip se može primijeniti

to the security lanes in airports.

kod sigurnosnih provjera na aerodromima.

Što bi se desilo kada biste mogli platiti dvostruko da prijeđete most

What would happen if you could actually pay twice as much money

to cross the bridge,

ali kroz traku koja bi bila ekspres traka?

but go through a lane that's an express lane?

It's not an unreasonable thing to do;

To uopće nije nerazumno. I ekonomski je efikasno.

it's an economically efficient thing to do.

Vrijeme nekim ljudima vrijedi više.

Time means more to some people than others.

If you're waiting trying to get to a job interview,

Ukoliko idete na razgovor za posao

you'd patently pay a couple of pounds more to go through the fast lane.

rado ćete platili par funti više kako biste stigli na vrijeme.

Ukoliko ste krenuli u posjet punici

If you're on the way to visit your mother-in-law,

you'd probably prefer --

vjerojatno ćete ostati u lijevoj traci.

(Laughter)

you'd probably prefer to stay on the left.

Problem je u tome da ako uvedete ekonomski efikasno rješenje

The only problem is if you introduce this economically efficient solution,

ljudi će ga mrziti.

people hate it ...

because they think you're deliberately creating delays at the bridge

Misliti će da namjerno stvarate kolone vozila

da biste si povećali prihode.

in order to maximize your revenue,

and, "Why on earth should I pay to subsidize your incompetence?"

i misliti će: "Zašto bi, zaboga, ja subvencionirao vašu nesposobnost?"

On the other hand, change the frame slightly

S druge strane, ako samo malo promijenite okvir

and create charitable yield management,

i napravite od toga nekakav dobrovoljni prilog

tako da višak novca ne ide vlasniku mosta, već da ide u dobrotvorne svrhe

so the extra money you get goes not to the bridge company,

it goes to charity ...

stav ljudi će se u potpunosti promijeniti.

and the mental willingness to pay completely changes.

Dobili ste relativno efikasno ekonomsko rješenje

You have a relatively economically efficient solution,

koje javnost odobrava

but one that actually meets with public approval

and even a small degree of affection,

a svaki, pa i najmanji stupanj naklonosti

rather than being seen as bastardy.

je bolji od toga da na vas gledaju kao na pokvarenjake.

So where economists make the fundamental mistake

Dakle, ono u čemu ekonomisti najviše griješe

is they think that money is money.

jest kada misle da je novac samo novac.

Zapravo, moja bol kada plaćam 5 funti

Actually, my pain experienced in paying five pounds

is not just proportionate to the amount,

nije proporcionalna samo iznosu,

but where I think that money is going.

već i načinu na koji će se novac utrošiti.

Razumijevanje te činjenice napravilo bi revoluciju u poreznoj politici.

And I think understanding that could revolutionize tax policy.

It could revolutionize the public services.

I revoluciju u javnim službama

It could actually change things quite significantly.

Zaista bi moglo bitno izmijeniti stvari.

[Ludwig Von Mises is my hero.]

Djela ovog čovjeka trebali bi svi proučiti.

Here's a guy you all need to study.

Pripadnik je "austrijske škole ekonomije"

He's an Austrian School economist

koja je djelovala u prvoj polovici 20-tog stoljeća.

who was first active in the first half of the 20th century in Vienna.

What was interesting about the Austrian School

Ono što je zanimljivo kod austrijske škole

is they actually grew up alongside Freud.

jest to, da se razvijala u vrijeme Freuda.

And so they're predominantly interested in psychology.

I zato ih je pretežno zanimala psihologija.

They believed that there was a discipline called praxeology,

Vjerovali su da postoji disciplina koju su zvali prakseologija

which is a prior discipline to the study of economics.

koja bi bila prethodnica ekonomije.

Praxeology is the study of human choice, action and decision-making.

Prakseologija se bavi proučavanjem izbora, djelovanja i donošenja odluka.

I think they're right.

Mislim da su u pravu.

Mislim da danas realnu opasnost predstavlja to

I think the danger we have in today's world

što znanost o ekonomiji sama sebe drži važnijom

is we have the study of economics

od znanosti o ljudskoj psihologiji.

considers itself to be a prior discipline to the study of human psychology.

But as Charlie Munger says, "If economics isn't behavioral,

Kako kaže Charlie Munger: "Ako ekonomija nema veze s ponašanjem,

onda ja ne znam što ima."

I don't know what the hell is."

Von Mises vjeruje da je ekonomija samo grana psihologije.

Von Mises, interestingly, believes economics is just a subset of psychology.

I think he just refers to economics

On smatra da je ekonomija

as "the study of human praxeology under conditions of scarcity."

"znanost ljudske prakseologije u uvjetima nestašice."

No von Mises, između ostalog, koristi analogiju

But Von Mises, among many other things,

koja je najbolje opravdanje i tumačenje

I think uses an analogy which is probably the best justification and explanation

for the value of marketing, the value of perceived value

vrijednosti na tržištu, percipirane vrijednosti

i činjenice da bismo tu vrijednost trebali tretirati jednako

and the fact that we should treat it as being absolutely equivalent

to any other kind of value.

kao i bilo koju drugu vrijednost.

Imamo naviku--čak i mi koji radimo u marketingu--

We tend to, all of us, even those of us who work in marketing,

razmišljati o vrijednosti na dva načina.

think of value in two ways:

Imamo pravu vrijednost,

the real value, which is when you make something in a factory

kao kada se nešto proizvede u tvornici ili kada se pruža usluga,

i imamo drugu, nekakvu sumnjivu vrijednost,

or provide a service,

and then there's a dubious value,

koju dobivamo kada promijenimo način na koji ljudi gledaju na stvar.

which you create by changing the way people look at things.

Von Mises je u potpunosti odbacio tu razliku

Von Mises completely rejected this distinction.

i dao sljedeću analogiju.

And he used this following analogy:

Pozvao se na čudne ekonomiste tzv. Francuske fiziokrate

he referred to strange economists called the French physiocrats,

koji su vjerovali da je jedina prava vrijednost ona koju dobijete od zemlje.

who believed that the only true value was what you extracted from the land.

Dakle ako ste ovčar, radnik u kamenolomu ili poljoprivrednik

So if you're a shepherd or a quarryman or a farmer,

you created true value.

onda stvarate pravu vrijednost.

If however, you bought some wool from the shepherd

Međutim, ukoliko ste od ovčara kupili vunu

i naplatili maržu zato što ste od vune napravili šešir

and charged a premium for converting it into a hat,

niste stvorili pravu vrijednost,

you weren't actually creating value,

you were exploiting the shepherd.

već iskorištavate stočara.

Now, Von Mises said that modern economists make exactly the same mistake

Von Mises drži da moderni ekonomisti rade istu pogrešku

kod oglašavanja i marketinga.

with regard to advertising and marketing.

He says if you run a restaurant,

Naime, ukoliko ste u restoranu,

there is no healthy distinction to be made

ne možete razlikovati vrijednost

koju ste dobili pripremanjem hrane

between the value you create by cooking the food

and the value you create by sweeping the floor.

od vrijednosti koju ste dobili čišćenjem podova.

Jedno je stvorilo primarni proizvod,

One of them creates, perhaps, the primary product --

the thing we think we're paying for --

ono što plaćamo,

no drugo je stvorilo okruženje

the other one creates a context within which we can enjoy

u kojem u proizvodu možemo uživati.

and appreciate that product.

I ideja da bi jedan trebao imati prioritet nad drugim

And the idea that one of them should have priority over the other

je iz temelja pogrešna.

is fundamentally wrong.

Try this quick thought experiment:

Probajte jedan mali misaoni pokus.

imagine a restaurant that serves Michelin-starred food,

Zamislite restoran koji poslužuje vrhunski spremljenu hranu,

ali koji smrdi po kanalizaciji

but where the restaurant smells of sewage

a na podu je ljudski izmet.

and there's human feces on the floor.

(Laughter)

The best thing you can do there to create value

Najbolja stvar koju možete napraviti da stvorite novu vrijednost

nije da još poboljšate hranu,

is not actually to improve the food still further,

it's to get rid of the smell and clean up the floor.

nego da se riješite smrada i očistite pod.

Od velikog je značaja da to shvatimo.

And it's vital we understand this.

Ako vam se to čini malo čudno ili nejasno,

If that seems like a sort of strange, abstruse thing --

britanska pošta imala je postotak uspješnosti 98 posto

in the UK, the post office had a 98 percent success rate

at delivering first-class mail the next day.

prilikom dostave hitnih pošiljaka sljedeći dan.

Smatrali su da im to nije dovoljno,

They decided this wasn't good enough,

željeli su postotak dići na 99 posto.

and they wanted to get it up to 99.

Pokušaj u tome umalo ih je uništio.

The effort to do that almost broke the organization.

Međutim, da su umjesto toga probali upitati ljude

If, at the same time, you'd gone and asked people,

"Što mislite koliki se postotak pošiljki dostavi sljedeći dan?"

"What percentage of first-class mail arrives the next day?"

najčešći odgovor bio bi 50 do 60 posto.

the average answer, or the modal answer, would have been "50 to 60 percent."

E sada, ukoliko je vaša predodžba mnogo gora od stvarnosti

Now, if your perception is much worse than your reality,

zašto, zaboga, mijenjati stvarnost?

what on earth are you doing trying to change the reality?

To je isto kao da pokušate poboljšati hranu u restoranu koji smrdi.

That's like trying to improve the food in a restaurant that stinks.

Ono što trebate napraviti jest,

What you need to do is, first of all, tell people

najprije reći ljudima

da se 98 posto hitnih pošiljki dostavi slijedeći dan.

that 98 percent of first-class mail gets there the next day.

That's pretty good.

To je prilično dobro.

Rekao bih, da je u Velikoj Britaniji dobar i sljedeći pristup:

I would argue, in Britain, there's a much better frame of reference,

kažete ljudima da se u Velikoj Britaniji

which is to tell people that more first-class mail arrives the next day

više pošte dostavi sljedeći dan

nego u Njemačkoj.

in the UK than in Germany, because generally, in Britain,

Naime, ukoliko želite usrećiti Britance,

if you want to make us happy about something,

samo im kažite da nešto rade bolje od Nijemaca.

just tell us we do it better than the Germans.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

(Pljesak)

(Applause)

Izaberite svoj okvir i percipiranu vrijednost

Choose your frame of reference and the perceived value,

and therefore, the actual value is completely transformed.

i to će u potpunosti transformirati pravu vrijednost.

Za Nijemce se treba reći

It has to be said of the Germans

that the Germans and the French are doing a brilliant job

da zajedno sa Francuzima rade izuzetan posao

na ujedinjavanju Europe.

of creating a united Europe.

The only thing they didn't expect is they're uniting Europe

Jedino što ne očekuju to da je baza ujedinjene Europe

through a shared mild hatred of the French and Germans.

uzajamna blaga netrpeljivosti Francuza i Nijemaca.

Ali, ja sam Britanac, a mi volimo da je to tako.

But I'm British; that's the way we like it.

(Laughter)

Vjerojatno ste primijetili da je u bilo kojem slučaju naša precepcija nepotpuna.

What you'll also notice is that, in any case,

our perception is leaky.

We can't tell the difference between the quality of the food

Ne možemo razlikovati kvalitetu hrane

od okoline u kojoj je konzumiramo.

and the environment in which we consume it.

Svi ste svjedočili tom fenomenu

All of you will have seen this phenomenon

kad ste odvezli auto u praonicu.

if you have your car washed or valeted.

When you drive away, your car feels as if it drives better.

Na odlasku iz praone, čini vam se da auto bolje ide.

(Laughter)

Razlog tomu,

And the reason for this --

osim ako u praoni nisu promijenili i ulje

unless my car valet mysteriously is changing the oil

i izvršili popravke za koje ja ne znam i koje ne plaćam.

and performing work which I'm not paying him for and I'm unaware of --

jest taj da je percepcija nepotpuna.

is because perception is, in any case, leaky.

Analgesics that are branded are more effective at reducing pain

Analgetici poznatih marki, efikasniji su kod uklanjanja boli

than analgesics that are not branded.

od analgetika nepoznatih proizvođača.

I don't just mean through reported pain reduction --

I ne govorim samo o subjektivnom doživljaju boli,

već o rezultatima mjerenja visine boli.

actual measured pain reduction.

And so perception actually is leaky in any case.

Dakle, percepcija je nepotpuna.

I zato, ako napravite nešto što je percepcijski loše u jednom smislu

So if you do something that's perceptually bad in one respect,

naštetit ćete i drugom.

you can damage the other.

Thank you very much.

Hvala lijepa.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)