Paul Collier's new rules for rebuilding a broken nation

Prevodilac: Milica Petrovic Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

I'm going to talk about post-conflict recovery

Govoriću vam o post-konfliktnom oporavku

and how we might do post-conflict recovery better.

i kako možemo poboljšati post-konfliktni oporavak.

The record on post-conflict recovery is not very impressive.

Zapisi o post-konfliktnom oporavku nisu baš impresivni.

40 percent of all post-conflict situations,

40 posto svih post-konfliktnih situacija,

historically, have reverted back to conflict within a decade.

istorijski, ponovo su postale konfliktne u toku jedne decenije.

In fact, they've accounted for half of all civil wars.

Zapravo, polovina se ubraja u građanske ratove.

Why has the record been so poor?

Zašto su zapisi tako siromašni?

Well, the conventional approach

Konvencionalni pristup

to post-conflict situations

post-konfliktnim situacijama

has rested on, on kind of, three principles.

se zasnivao na tri principa.

The first principle is: it's the politics that matters.

Prvi princip je: politika je ono što je važno.

So, the first thing that is prioritized is politics.

Tako da prva stvar koja ima prioritet je politika.

Try and build a political settlement first.

Pokušajte prvo da napravite političko poravnanje.

And then the second step is to say,

Zatim sledeći korak je da kažete:

"The situation is admittedly dangerous, but only for a short time."

"Ova situacija je zaista opasna, ali samo za kratko vreme."

So get peacekeepers there, but get them home as soon as possible.

Dovedite tamo mirotvorce, ali ih vratite kući što je pre moguće.

So, short-term peacekeepers.

Dakle, kratkotrajne mirotvorce.

And thirdly, what is the exit strategy for the peacekeepers?

I treće, koja je izlazna strategija za mirotvorce?

It's an election.

To su izbori.

That will produce a legitimate and accountable government.

To će proizvesti legitimnu i odgovornu vlast.

So that's the conventional approach.

Dakle, ovo je konvenconalni pristup.

I think that approach denies reality.

Smatram da ovaj pristup negira stvarnost.

We see that there is no quick fix.

Vidimo da nema brzog rešenja.

There's certainly no quick security fix.

Sigurno ne postoji brzo bezbednosno rešenje.

I've tried to look at the risks of reversion to conflict,

Pokušao sam da uočim rizike vraćanja na sukob,

during our post-conflict decade.

tokom naše post-konfliktne decenije.

And the risks stay high throughout the decade.

I rizici ostaju visoki tokom cele decenije.

And they stay high regardless of the political innovations.

I ostaju visoki bez obzira na političke inovacije.

Does an election produce an accountable and legitimate government?

Da li izbori proizvode odgovornu i legitimnu vlast?

What an election produces is a winner and a loser.

Ono što izbori proizvode su pobednici i gubitnici.

And the loser is unreconciled.

A gubitnik je neprilagođen.

The reality is that we need to reverse the sequence.

Realnost je da moramo da preokrenemo redosled.

It's not the politics first;

Politika nije na prvom mestu;

it's actually the politics last.

politika je zapravo poslednja.

The politics become easier as the decade progresses

Politika je sve lakša kako decenija odmiče

if you're building on a foundation

ako gradite na temelju

of security and economic development --

bezbednosnog i ekonomskog razvoja -

the rebuilding of prosperity.

ponovna izgradnja prosperiteta.

Why does the politics get easier?

Zašto politika postaje lakša?

And why is it so difficult initially?

Zašto je tako teška na početku?

Because after years of stagnation and decline,

Zato što posle više godina stagnacije i opadanja,

the mentality of politics is that it's a zero-sum game.

mentalitet politike je takav da je to igra nulte sume (strogo kompetitivna).

If the reality is stagnation,

Ako je stagnacija stvarnost,

I can only go up if you go down.

mogu jedino da idem gore ako vi idete dole.

And that doesn't produce a productive politics.

A to ne proizvodi produktivnu politiku.

And so the mentality has to shift from

Tako da način razmišljanja mora da se promeni od

zero-sum to positive-sum

nulte na pozitivnu sumu

before you can get a productive politics.

pre no što dobijete produktivnu politiku.

You can only get positive, that mental shift,

Možete jedino dobiti pozitivan rezultat, taj mentalni pomak,

if the reality is that prosperity is being built.

ako je realnost takva da se gradi prosperitet.

And in order to build prosperity, we need security in place.

A da bi mogao da se izgradi prosperitet, treba nam bezbednost.

So that is what you get when you face reality.

To je ono što dobijate kada se suočite sa realnošću.

But the objective of facing reality

Ali cilj suočavanja sa realnošću

is to change reality.

je da se promeni realnost.

And so now let me suggest

Dozvolite mi sada da predložim

two complimentary approaches

dva komplementarna pristupa

to changing the reality of the situations.

za izmenu realnosti situacije.

The first is to recognize the interdependence

Prvi je da prepoznamo međuzavisnost

of three key actors, who are different actors,

tri ključna različita učesnika,

and at the moment are uncoordinated.

koji su trenutno nekoordinisani.

The first actor is the Security Council.

Prvi učesnik je Savet bezbednosti.

The Security Council typically has the responsibility

Savet bezbednosti standardno ima odgovornost

for providing the peacekeepers

za pripremu mirotvoraca

who build the security.

koji grade bezbednost.

And that needs to be recognized,

To treba da bude prepoznato,

first of all, that peacekeeping works.

pre svega, da očuvanje mira funkcioniše.

It is a cost-effective approach.

To je isplativ pristup.

It does increase security.

On zaista povećava bezbednost.

But it needs to be done long-term.

Ali mora da se izvodi na duže staze.

It needs to be a decade-long approach,

To mora da bude decenijski pristup,

rather than just a couple of years.

a ne tek na par godina.

That's one actor, the Security Council.

To je jedan učesnik, Savet bezbednosti.

The second actor, different cast of guys,

Drugi učesnik, drugačiji skup ljudi,

is the donors.

su donatori.

The donors provide post-conflict aid.

Donatori omogućavaju post-konfliktnu pomoć.

Typically in the past,

Uobičajeno u prošlosti,

the donors have been interested in the first couple of years,

donatori su bili zainteresovani u prvih nekoliko godina,

and then they got bored.

a zatim im je postalo dosadno.

They moved on to some other situation.

Orijentisali su se na neku drugu situaciju.

Post-conflict economic recovery

Post-konfliktni ekonomski oporavak

is a slow process.

je spor proces.

There are no quick processes in economics

Ne postoje brzi procesi u ekonomiji

except decline.

osim pada.

You can do that quite fast.

To možete da izvedete prilično brzo.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So the donors have to stick with this situation

Stoga donatori moraju da se drže ove situacije

for at least a decade.

bar jednu deceniju.

And then the third key actor

A zatim treći ključni učesnik

is the post-conflict government.

je post-konfliktna vlada.

And there are two key things it's got to do.

Postoje dve ključne stvari koje ona treba da uradi.

One is it's got to do economic reform,

Prvo, mora da sprovede ekonomsku reformu,

not fuss about the political constitution.

a ne da zamajava galamom o političkoj upravi.

It's got to reform economic policy.

Mora da reformiše ekonomsku politiku.

Why? Because during conflict

Zašto? Zato što se tokom konflikta

economic policy typically deteriorates.

ekonomska politika po običaju pogoršava.

Governments snatch short-term opportunities

Vlade grabe kratkoročne mogućnosti

and, by the end of the conflict, the chickens have come home to roost.

i po završetku konflikta, kokoške se vraćaju u kokošinjac.

So this legacy of conflict is really bad economic policy.

Dakle, konflikt ostavlja u nasleđe lošu ekonomsku politiku.

So there is a reform agenda, and there is an inclusion agenda.

Tako da postoji program reforme i postoji program inkluzije.

The inclusion agenda doesn't come from elections.

Program inkluzije ne dolazi od izbora.

Elections produce a loser, who is then excluded.

Izbori proizvode gubitnika, koji je tada isključen.

So the inclusion agenda means genuinely

Zato program inkluzije u suštini podrazumeva

bringing people inside the tent.

uvođenje ljudi u šator.

So those three actors.

To su tri aktera.

And they are interdependent

Oni su međuzavisni

over a long term.

tokom dužeg vremena.

If the Security Council doesn't commit to security

Ukoliko se Savet bezbednosti ne posveti bezbednosti

over the course of a decade,

u toku decenije,

you don't get the reassurance which produces private investment.

nemate sigurnost koja proizvodi privatne investicije.

If you don't get the policy reform and the aid,

Ako nemate reformu politike i pomoć,

you don't get the economic recovery,

nemate ekonomski oporavak,

which is the true exit strategy for the peacekeepers.

koji je prava izlazna strategija za mirotvorce.

So we should recognize that interdependence,

Zato bi trebalo da prepoznamo tu međuzavisnost

by formal, mutual commitments.

kroz formalne, zajedničke obaveze.

The United Nations actually has a language

Ujedinjene nacije zapravo imaju jezik

for these mutual commitments, the recognition of mutual commitments;

za ove zajedničke obaveze, prepoznavanje zajedničkih obaveza;

it's called the language of compact.

koji zovu jezik sporazuma.

And so we need a post-conflict compact.

Stoga nam treba post-konfliktni sporazum.

The United Nations even has an agency which could broker these compacts;

Ujedinjene nacije čak imaju agenciju koja može da posreduje u ovim sporazumima.

it's called the Peace Building Commission.

Zove se Komisija za izgradnju mira.

It would be ideal to have a standard set of norms

Bilo bi idealno da imamo standardnu grupu normi

where, when we got to a post-conflict situation,

gde, kada dođemo do post-konfliktne situacije,

there was an expectation of these mutual commitments

postoje očekivanja ovih zajedničkih obaveza

from the three parties.

ova tri učesnika.

So that's idea one:

Dakle, prva ideja je:

recognize interdependence.

prepoznati međuzavisnost.

And now let me turn to the second approach, which is complimentary.

Sada, dozvolite mi da se usredsredim na drugi pristup, koji je laskav.

And that is to focus on a few critical objectives.

A to je da se fokusiramo na nekoliko kritičnih ciljeva.

Typical post-conflict situation is a zoo

Tipična post-konfliktna situacija je zbrka

of different actors with different priorities.

različitih aktera sa različitim prioritetima.

And indeed, unfortunately, if you navigate by needs

Zaista, na žalost, ako se orijentišete prema potrebama

you get a very unfocused agenda,

dobijate vrlo nefokusiran program,

because in these situations, needs are everywhere,

jer u ovim situacijama, potrebe postoje svuda,

but the capacity to implement change is very limited.

ali mogućnost da se implementira promena je veoma ograničena.

So we have to be disciplined and focus on things that are critical.

Zato moramo biti disciplinovani i fokusirani na stvari koje su kritične.

And I want to suggest that in the typical post-conflict situation

Želim da dodam da u tipičnoj post-konfliktnoj situaciji

three things are critical.

tri stvari su kritične.

One is jobs.

Jedna su poslovi.

One is improvements in basic services --

Jedna su poboljšanja u osnovnim uslugama -

especially health, which is a disaster during conflict.

posebno u zdravstvu, koje je katastrofalno u toku konflikata.

So jobs, health, and clean government.

Dakle, poslovi, zdravlje i čista vlada.

Those are the three critical priorities.

To su tri kritična prioriteta.

So I'm going to talk a little about each of them.

Tako da ću da govorim malo o svakom od njih.

Jobs.

Poslovi.

What is a distinctive approach

Šta je prepoznatljiv način

to generating jobs in post-conflict situations?

stvaranja radnih mesta u post-konfliktnim situacijama?

And why are jobs so important?

I zašto su poslovi tako važni?

Jobs for whom? Especially jobs for young men.

Poslovi za koga? Posebno poslovi za mlade muškarce.

In post-conflict situations,

U post-konfliktnim situacijama,

the reason that they so often revert to conflict,

razlog zbog kog se oni tako često uključuju u konflikt,

is not because elderly women get upset.

nije zato što starije žene bivaju uznemirene.

It's because young men get upset.

Već zato što mladi ljudi bivaju uznemireni.

And why are they upset? Because they have nothing to do.

A zašto su uznemireni? Zato što nemaju šta da rade.

And so we need a process of generating jobs,

Stoga nam treba proces stvaranja radnih mesta,

for ordinary young men, fast.

za obične mlade ljude i to brzo.

Now, that is difficult.

E sad, to je teško.

Governments in post-conflict situation

Vlade u post-konfliktnim situacijama

often respond by puffing up the civil service.

često odgovore tako što uvećaju državnu upravu.

That is not a good idea.

To nije dobra ideja.

It's not sustainable.

Nije održiva.

In fact, you're building a long-term liability

Zapravo, stvarate dugoročnu obavezu

by inflating civil service.

naduvavanjem državne uprave.

But getting the private sector to expand is also difficult,

Ali proširiti privatni sektor je takođe teško,

because any activity which is open to international trade

jer bilo koja aktivnost koja je otvorena prema međunarodnoj trgovini

is basically going to be uncompetitive

će u suštini biti nekonkurentna

in a post-conflict situation.

u post-konfliktnoj situaciji.

These are not environments where you can build export manufacturing.

To nisu uslovi u kojima možete izgraditi proizvodnju za izvoz.

There's one sector which isn't exposed to international trade,

Postoji jedan sektor koji nije izložen međunarodnoj trgovini,

and which can generate a lot of jobs,

a koji može da generiše mnogo radnih mesta,

and which is, in any case, a sensible sector

i koji je, u svakom slučaju, osetljiv sektor

to expand, post-conflict,

za proširenje, post-konfliktno,

and that is the construction sector.

a to je građevinski sektor.

The construction sector has a vital role,

Građevinski sektor ima ključnu ulogu,

obviously, in reconstruction.

očigledno, u rekonstrukciji.

But typically that sector has withered away during conflict.

Ali tipično, ovaj sektor presuši tokom sukoba.

During conflict people are doing destruction.

Tokom sukoba ljudi uništavaju.

There isn't any construction going on. And so the sector shrivels away.

Nikakva gradnja se ne dešava. I tako se ovaj sektor umanjuje.

And then when you try and expand it,

A kada pokušate da ga proširite,

because it's shriveled away,

jer se smanjio,

you encounter a lot of bottlenecks.

naiđete na mnogo uskih grla.

Basically, prices soar

U osnovi, cene skaču,

and crooked politicians then milk the rents from the sector,

a korumpirani političari izvuku zakupnine iz sektora,

but it doesn't generate any jobs.

a ne stvaraju nikakva radna mesta.

And so the policy priority is to break the bottlenecks

Tako da je prioritet politike da razbije ta uska grla

in expanding the construction sector.

proširivanjem građevinskog sektora.

What might the bottlenecks be?

Šta mogu biti ta uska grla?

Just think what you have to do

Samo zamislite šta morate da radite

successfully to build a structure, using a lot of labor.

uspešno da biste sagradili građevinu, koristeći mnogo rada.

First you need access to land.

Prvo vam treba pristup terenu.

Often the legal system is broken down

Često je pravni sistem razbijen

so you can't even get access to land.

tako da ne možete dobiti čak ni pristup terenu.

Secondly you need skills,

Drugo, trebaju vam određene veštine,

the mundane skills of the construction sector.

svetske veštine građevinskog sektora.

In post-conflict situations we don't just need Doctors Without Borders,

U post-konfliktnim situacijama ne trebaju nam samo Lekari bez granica

we need Bricklayers Without Borders,

trebaju nam i Zidari bez granica,

to rebuild the skill set.

da bismo obnovili skup veština.

We need firms. The firms have gone away.

Trebaju nam firme. Firme su otišle.

So we need to encourage the growth of local firms.

Zato treba da podstičemo razvoj lokalnih firmi.

If we do that, we not only get the jobs,

Ako to učinimo, ne samo da dobijamo radna mesta,

we get the improvements in public infrastructure,

već dobijamo i poboljšanja u javnoj infrastrukturi,

the restoration of public infrastructure.

obnovu javne infrastrukture.

Let me turn from jobs to the second objective,

Dozvolite mi da se prebacim sa radnih mesta na drugi cilj,

which is improving basic social services.

odnosno na poboljšanje osnovnih socijalnih službi.

And to date, there has been a sort of a schizophrenia

Do sada, bila je neka vrsta šizofrenije

in the donor community,

u donatorskoj zajednici,

as to how to build basic services

o tome kako da izgradimo osnovne službe

in post-conflict sectors.

u post-konfliktnom sektoru.

On the one hand it pays lip service

S jedne strane deklarativno se isplati

to the idea of rebuild an effective state

ideja obnove efikasne države

in the image of Scandinavia in the 1950s.

po uzoru na Skandinaviju 1950-ih.

Lets develop line ministries of this, that, and the other,

Hajde da osnujemo resorna ministarstva ovoga, onoga i nečeg drugog,

that deliver these services.

koji pružaju te usluge.

And it's schizophrenic because in their hearts

To je šizofreno jer duboko u sebi

donors know that's not a realistic agenda,

donatori znaju da to nije realističan program,

and so what they also do is the total bypass:

tako da ono što oni takođe rade je potpuno premošćavanje:

just fund NGOs.

samo osnivaju nevladine organizacije.

Neither of those approaches is sensible.

Nijedan od tih pristupa nije razuman.

And so what I'd suggest

Ono što bih ja predložio

is what I call Independent Service Authorities.

je nešto što zovem servis nezavisne vlasti.

It's to split the functions of a monopoly line ministry up into three.

To je da bi se podelile funkcije monopola resornih ministara na tri dela.

The planning function and policy function stays with the ministry;

Funkcija planiranja i politička funkcija ostaju uz ministarstvo;

the delivery of services on the ground,

pružanje usluga na terenu,

you should use whatever works --

možete upotrebiti šta god funkcioniše -

churches, NGOs, local communities,

crkve, nevladine organizacije, lokalne zajednice,

whatever works.

šta god funkcioniše.

And in between, there should be a public agency,

A između toga, treba da postoji javna služba,

the Independent Service Authority,

servis nezavisne vlasti,

which channels public money,

koji prosleđuje javna sredstva,

and especially donor money,

posebno novac donatora,

to the retail providers.

do maloprodajnih usluga.

So the NGOs become part of a public government system,

Tako nevladine organizacije postaju deo javnog sistema vlasti,

rather than independent of it.

ne postoje nezavisno od njega.

One advantage of that is that you can allocate money coherently.

Prednost ovoga je što možete razumno da izdvojite novac.

Another is, you can make NGOs accountable.

Druga je, možete da učinite nevladine organizacije odgovornijim.

You can use yardstick competition,

Možete da uvedete merenja radi podsticanja konkurencije,

so they have to compete against each other

tako da one moraju da se takmiče jedne protiv drugih

for the resources.

za sredstva.

The good NGOs, like Oxfam, are very keen on this idea.

Dobre nevladine organizacije, kao Oxfam, su veoma zainteresovane za ovu ideju.

They want to have the discipline and accountability.

Žele da imaju disciplinu i odgovornost.

So that's a way to get basic services scaled up.

Dakle, to je način da prilagodite osnovne službe.

And because the government would be funding it,

A pošto bi ih vlada finansirala,

it would be co-branding these services.

to bi bilo ko-brendiranje ovih službi.

So they wouldn't be provided thanks to

Tako da ne bi bile snabdevane zahvaljujući

the United States government and some NGO.

Sjedinjenim Državama i nekim nevladinim organizacijama.

They would be co-branded

Bile bi ko-brendirane

as being done by the post-conflict government, in the country.

kao da je to uradila post-konfliktna vlast u zemlji.

So, jobs, basic services, finally, clean government.

Tako da, radna mesta, osnovne službe, konačno, čista vlada.

Clean means follow their money.

Čisto znači praćenje njihovog novca.

The typical post-conflict government is so short of money

Uobičajena post-konfliktna vlada je toliko u manjku sa novcem

that it needs our money

da joj treba naš novac

just to be on a life-support system.

samo da bi bila na sistemu za održavanje života.

You can't get the basic functions of the state done

Ne možete omogućiti da osnovne funkcije države rade

unless we put money into the core budget of these countries.

ukoliko ne stavimo novac u osnovni budžet tih država.

But, if we put money into the core budget,

Ali, ako stavimo novac u osnovni budžet

we know that there aren't the budget systems with integrity

znamo da tamo ne postoji budžetski sistem sa integritetom

that mean that money will be well spent.

koji bi garantovao da će novac biti dobro utrošen.

And if all we do is put money in and close our eyes

A ako sve što uradimo je da uložimo novac i zatvorimo oči

it's not just that the money is wasted --

ne samo da će novac biti protraćen -

that's the least of the problems --

to je najmanji problem -

it's that the money is captured.

već će biti zarobljen.

It's captured by the crooks who are at the heart of the political problem.

Zarobiće ga pokvarenjaci koji su u središtu političkih problema.

And so inadvertently we empower the people who are the problem.

Na taj način nehotice osnažujemo ljude koji su problem.

So building clean government means, yes, provide money

Tako da stvaranje čistih vlada znači, obezbeđivanje novca

to the budget,

za budžet,

but also provide a lot of scrutiny,

ali i omogućavanje dosta kontrole,

which means a lot of technical assistance that follows the money.

što podrazumeva mnogo tehničke podrške koja prati novac.

Paddy Ashdown, who was the grand high nabob of Bosnia

Pedi Ešdaun, koji je bio visoki predstavnik Bosne

to the United Nations,

u Ujedinjenim nacijama,

in his book about his experience, he said,

u svojim memoarima je rekao:

"I realize what I needed

"Ja shvatam da su mi trebale

was accountants without borders,

računovođe bez granica

to follow that money."

da prate taj novac."

So that's the -- let me wrap up,

Tako da je - dozvolite mi da završim,

this is the package.

ovo je taj paket.

What's the goal?

Šta je cilj?

If we follow this, what would we hope to achieve?

Ako pratimo ovo, kojim postignućima se možemo nadati?

That after 10 years,

Da će nakon 10 godina

the focus on the construction sector

fokus na građevinskom sektoru

would have produced both jobs

proizvesti i radna mesta

and, hence, security --

a samim tim i sigurnost -

because young people would have jobs --

jer bi mladi ljudi imali poslove -

and it would have reconstructed the infrastructure.

i time bi se rekonstruisala infrastruktura.

So that's the focus on the construction sector.

To je fokus na građevinskom sektoru.

The focus on the basic service delivery

Fokus na osnovnim uslugama

through these independent service authorities

kroz ove nezavisne organe

would have rescued basic services

bi spasio osnovne službe

from their catastrophic levels,

njihovih katastrofalnih stanja

and it would have given ordinary people

i dalo bi običnom narodu

the sense that the government was doing something useful.

osećaj da vlada radi nešto korisno.

The emphasis on clean government

Naglasak na čistoj vladi

would have gradually squeezed out the political crooks,

bi postepeno istisnuo korumpirane političare

because there wouldn't be any money

jer ne bi bilo više novca

in taking part in the politics.

za učestvovanje u politici.

And so gradually the selection,

I postepeno izbor,

the composition of politicians,

garnitura političara,

would shift from the crooked to the honest.

bi se promenila od korumpiranih na poštene.

Where would that leave us?

Gde bi smo tada bili?

Gradually it would shift

Postepeno to bi se promenilo

from a politics of plunder

sa politike pljačke

to a politics of hope. Thank you.

na politiku nade. Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)