Paul Collier's new rules for rebuilding a broken nation

33,727 views ใƒป 2009-06-24

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์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Tae-Hoon Chung ๊ฒ€ํ† : Alf Bae
00:16
I'm going to talk about post-conflict recovery
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์ €๋Š” ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ๋ณต๊ตฌ์™€ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ๋ณต๊ตฌ๋ฅผ
00:22
and how we might do post-conflict recovery better.
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๋” ์ž˜ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ• ๊นŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:27
The record on post-conflict recovery is not very impressive.
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ๋ณต๊ตฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋ก์€ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ ํ›Œ๋ฅญํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:32
40 percent of all post-conflict situations,
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์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ 40%์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—
00:36
historically, have reverted back to conflict within a decade.
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์ฑ„ 10๋…„์ด ์•ˆ๋ผ์„œ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:40
In fact, they've accounted for half of all civil wars.
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์‹ค์ œ ์ „์ฒด ๋‚ด์ „์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:45
Why has the record been so poor?
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๊ธฐ๋ก์ด ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜์œ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ๋ญ˜๊นŒ์š”?
00:48
Well, the conventional approach
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ์ดํ›„ ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ฒ˜ํ•˜๋Š”
00:51
to post-conflict situations
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ํ†ต์ƒ์ ์ธ ์ ‘๊ทผ๋ฒ•์€ ๋ณดํ†ต
00:53
has rested on, on kind of, three principles.
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์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์›์น™์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:57
The first principle is: it's the politics that matters.
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์›์น™์€ ์ •์น˜์˜ ์ค‘์š”์„ฑ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:02
So, the first thing that is prioritized is politics.
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์šฐ์„ ์ˆœ์œ„๋Š” ์ •์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:05
Try and build a political settlement first.
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์šฐ์„  ์ •์น˜์  ์•ˆ์ •์„ ํ™•๋ฆฝํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
And then the second step is to say,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ง์„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:13
"The situation is admittedly dangerous, but only for a short time."
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"์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ธ์ •ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ž ๊น์ผ ๋ฟ์ด๋‹ค."
01:16
So get peacekeepers there, but get them home as soon as possible.
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"๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ํ‰ํ™”์œ ์ง€๊ตฐ์„ ๋ฐฐ์น˜ํ•˜๋˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ํ•œ ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์ฒ ์ˆ˜ํ•˜์ž."
01:21
So, short-term peacekeepers.
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์ฆ‰ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์˜ ํ‰ํ™”์œ ์ง€๊ตฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:24
And thirdly, what is the exit strategy for the peacekeepers?
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์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ํ‰ํ™”์œ ์ง€๊ตฐ์˜ ์ถœ๊ตฌ ์ „๋žต์€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
01:28
It's an election.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์„ ๊ฑฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:30
That will produce a legitimate and accountable government.
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์„ ๊ฑฐ๋Š” ํ•ฉ๋ฒ•์ ์ด๊ณ  ์ฑ…์ž„์žˆ๋Š” ์ •๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:35
So that's the conventional approach.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฐ”๋กœ ํ†ต์ƒ์ ์ธ ์ ‘๊ทผ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:38
I think that approach denies reality.
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์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์— ์ด ๋ฐฉ์‹์€ ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ด์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:42
We see that there is no quick fix.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‹จ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์˜ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑด ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์••๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:46
There's certainly no quick security fix.
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ํ™•์‹คํžˆ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ์•ˆ์ „์„ ๋ณด์žฅํ•  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:49
I've tried to look at the risks of reversion to conflict,
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์‹ญ ๋…„ ์‚ฌ์ด ๋ถ„์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐˆ
01:52
during our post-conflict decade.
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์œ„ํ—˜์„ ์‚ดํŽด ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค๋งŒ ๊ทธ์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์œ„ํ—˜์€
01:54
And the risks stay high throughout the decade.
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๊ทธ ์‹ญ ๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ๊ณ„์† ์ปค์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:58
And they stay high regardless of the political innovations.
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์ •์น˜์ ์ธ ํ˜์‹ ๊ณผ๋Š” ์ƒ๊ด€์—†์ด ์œ„ํ—˜์€ ์ปธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:05
Does an election produce an accountable and legitimate government?
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์„ ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ฑ…์ž„์žˆ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋ฒ•์ ์ธ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์งˆ๊นŒ์š”?
02:10
What an election produces is a winner and a loser.
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์„ ๊ฑฐ๋Š” ๊ทธ์ € ์Šน์ž์™€ ํŒจ์ž๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:15
And the loser is unreconciled.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํŒจ์ž๋Š” ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์—ฌ์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:20
The reality is that we need to reverse the sequence.
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ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์ด ์ˆœ์„œ๋ฅผ ๋’ค์ง‘์–ด ์ ธ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:24
It's not the politics first;
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์ •์น˜๋Š” ์ œ์ผ ๋จผ์ €๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
02:26
it's actually the politics last.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ์ œ์ผ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์ด์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:29
The politics become easier as the decade progresses
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์‹ญ ๋…„์ด ์ง€๋‚˜๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ ์•ˆ์ „๋ณด์žฅ๊ณผ
02:32
if you're building on a foundation
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๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ฐœ์ „์˜ ํ† ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ๊ตฌ์ถ•๋˜๋ฉด
02:35
of security and economic development --
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์ •์น˜๋Š” ๋”์šฑ ์‰ฌ์›Œ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:40
the rebuilding of prosperity.
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๋ฒˆ์˜์˜ ์žฌ๊ฑด.
02:42
Why does the politics get easier?
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์™œ ์ •์น˜๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‰ฌ์›Œ์งˆ๊นŒ์š”?
02:44
And why is it so difficult initially?
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์™œ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๊ฒƒ์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
02:46
Because after years of stagnation and decline,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ˆ˜๋…„์— ๊ฑธ์นœ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์นจ์ฒด์™€ ํ‡ด๋ฝ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ
02:50
the mentality of politics is that it's a zero-sum game.
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'์˜์˜ ํ•ฉ ๊ฒŒ์ž„'์˜ ์ •์น˜ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํŒฝ๋ฐฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. *์˜์˜ ํ•ฉ๊ฒŒ์ž„: Zero-sum game ์ฐธ๊ฐ€์ž๋“ค์˜ ์‹ค์ต์˜ ํ•ฉ์ด 0
02:56
If the reality is stagnation,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ํ˜„์‹ค์ด ์นจ์ฒด๊ธฐ์ด๋ฉด
02:58
I can only go up if you go down.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋–จ์–ด์ ธ์•ผ ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ์˜ฌ๋ผ ๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:01
And that doesn't produce a productive politics.
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์ธ ์ •์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:06
And so the mentality has to shift from
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์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์ธ ์ •์น˜๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๋ ค๋ฉด
03:09
zero-sum to positive-sum
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์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์ƒํƒœ๊ฐ€ '์˜(๏ฆฒ)์˜ ํ•ฉ'์—์„œ
03:11
before you can get a productive politics.
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'์–‘(้™ฝ)์˜ ํ•ฉ'์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๋€Œ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:15
You can only get positive, that mental shift,
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ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฒˆ์˜์ด ๊ตฌ์ถ•๋˜์–ด์•ผ๋งŒ
03:17
if the reality is that prosperity is being built.
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์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ '์–‘์˜ ํ•ฉ'์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๋€Œ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
03:21
And in order to build prosperity, we need security in place.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฒˆ์˜์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋จผ์ € ์•ˆ์ „์ด ํ™•๋ณด๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:26
So that is what you get when you face reality.
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ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๋ณด๋ฉด ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:28
But the objective of facing reality
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ๋งž๋‹ฅ๋œจ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ชฉ์ ์€
03:30
is to change reality.
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ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:32
And so now let me suggest
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์ด์ œ ์ €๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์˜ ์‹ค์ฒด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š”
03:34
two complimentary approaches
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๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ณด์™„์ ์ธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„
03:38
to changing the reality of the situations.
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์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:41
The first is to recognize the interdependence
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์ฒซ์งธ๋Š” ์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์„œ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ณ 
03:45
of three key actors, who are different actors,
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ํ˜„์žฌ ์„œ๋กœ ํ˜‘๋ ฅํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์ฐธ์—ฌ์ž๋“ค์ด
03:50
and at the moment are uncoordinated.
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์ƒํ˜ธ์˜์กด์„ฑ์„ ์ธ์‹ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:53
The first actor is the Security Council.
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ฐธ์—ฌ์ž๋Š” ์•ˆ์ „๋ณด์žฅ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:56
The Security Council typically has the responsibility
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์•ˆ์ „๋ณด์žฅ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ๋Š” ๋ณดํ†ต ํ‰ํ™”์œ ์ง€๊ตฐ์„ ์ œ๊ณต
04:00
for providing the peacekeepers
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์•ˆ์ „์„ ํ™•๋ฆฝํ•˜๋Š”
04:02
who build the security.
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์ฑ…์ž„์„ ๋งก์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ๋ฌด์—‡๋ณด๋‹ค
04:05
And that needs to be recognized,
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ํ‰ํ™”์œ ์ง€๊ตฐ์ด ์ œ ๋ชซ์„ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
04:07
first of all, that peacekeeping works.
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์ธ์ •์ด ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:10
It is a cost-effective approach.
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์ด๋Š” ๋น„์šฉํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:12
It does increase security.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์•ˆ์ „์„ฑ๋„ ์ข‹์•„์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:15
But it needs to be done long-term.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ์œ ์ง€๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:17
It needs to be a decade-long approach,
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๋‹จ์ง€ ๋ช‡๋…„์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
04:19
rather than just a couple of years.
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์‹ญ์—ฌ๋…„์€ ์กฑํžˆ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:21
That's one actor, the Security Council.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ฐธ์—ฌ์ž์˜ ํ•œ ์ถ• ์•ˆ์ „๋ณด์žฅ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:24
The second actor, different cast of guys,
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๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ฐธ์—ฌ์ž๋Š” ์ „ํ˜€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๋กœ
04:27
is the donors.
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์›์กฐ์ œ๊ณต์ž์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:29
The donors provide post-conflict aid.
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์ด๋“ค์€ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์›์กฐ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:32
Typically in the past,
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๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์— ์›์กฐ์ œ๊ณต์ž๋Š” ๋ณดํ†ต
04:35
the donors have been interested in the first couple of years,
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์ฒซ ์ด์‚ผ ๋…„ ์ •๋„๋งŒ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ–๋‹ค๊ฐ€
04:38
and then they got bored.
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๊ธˆ์ƒˆ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ์‹์–ด๋ฒ„๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:40
They moved on to some other situation.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ์ƒํ™ฉ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ๊ฐ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:43
Post-conflict economic recovery
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์žฌ๊ฑด์€
04:45
is a slow process.
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๋Š๋ฆฐ ๊ณผ์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:47
There are no quick processes in economics
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๊ฒฝ์ œ์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐํ•˜๊ฐ•์™ธ์—๋Š”
04:50
except decline.
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๋น ๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:52
You can do that quite fast.
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๊ฒฝ๊ธฐํ•˜๊ฐ•๋งŒ ์ •๋ง ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ๋‹ค๊ฐ€์˜ค๊ณค ํ•˜์ง€์š”.
04:54
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
04:55
So the donors have to stick with this situation
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์›์กฐ์ œ๊ณต์ž๋Š” ์ ์–ด๋„ ์‹ญ ๋…„์€
05:00
for at least a decade.
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๊ทธ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€์—ฌํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:04
And then the third key actor
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๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์ฐธ์—ฌ์ž๋Š”
05:06
is the post-conflict government.
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ •๋ถ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:09
And there are two key things it's got to do.
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์ด๋“ค์ด ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ผ์ด ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:11
One is it's got to do economic reform,
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ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š” ์ •์น˜์ ์ธ ๊ตฌํ˜ธ์— ์•„๋ž‘๊ณณํ•˜์ง€ ๋ง๊ณ 
05:15
not fuss about the political constitution.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐœํ˜์„ ๋‹จํ–‰ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:18
It's got to reform economic policy.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ์ •์ฑ…์„ ๊ฐœํ˜ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:20
Why? Because during conflict
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์™œ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด๊นŒ์š”? ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ถ„์Ÿ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ
05:23
economic policy typically deteriorates.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ์ •์ฑ…์€ ํ†ต์ƒ ํ‡ด๋ณดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:26
Governments snatch short-term opportunities
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์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ๋‹จ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ธฐํšŒ๋งŒ ์—ฟ๋ณด์ฃ .
05:30
and, by the end of the conflict, the chickens have come home to roost.
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๋ถ„์Ÿ์ด ์ข…์‹๋  ์ฆˆ์Œ, ํ”ผ๋‚œํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ตญ๋ฏผ๋“ค์ด ๋Œ์•„์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:34
So this legacy of conflict is really bad economic policy.
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋ถ„์Ÿ์˜ ์œ ์‚ฐ๋งŒํผ ๋‚˜์œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ •์ฑ…์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:37
So there is a reform agenda, and there is an inclusion agenda.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์— ๊ฐœํ˜์˜ ์˜์ œ์™€ ํฌ์šฉ์˜ ์˜์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:41
The inclusion agenda doesn't come from elections.
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ํฌ์šฉ์˜ ์˜์ œ๋Š” ์„ ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:44
Elections produce a loser, who is then excluded.
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์„ ๊ฑฐ๋Š” ํŒจ์ž๋ฅผ ๋‚ณ๊ณ  ํŒจ์ž๋Š” ์ œ์™ธ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:49
So the inclusion agenda means genuinely
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ํฌ์šฉ์˜ ์˜์ œ๋Š” ์ˆœ์ˆ˜ํ•˜๊ฒŒ
05:52
bringing people inside the tent.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ๋‹ค ๋Œ์–ด์•ˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:55
So those three actors.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์„ธ ์ฐธ์—ฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:57
And they are interdependent
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋“ค์€ ๊ธด ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ
05:59
over a long term.
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์„œ๋กœ ์˜์กดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:02
If the Security Council doesn't commit to security
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์•ˆ์ „๋ณด์žฅ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฐ€ ์‹ญ ๋…„์— ๊ฑธ์ณ
06:06
over the course of a decade,
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์•ˆ์ „์˜ ํ™•๋ณด์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
06:08
you don't get the reassurance which produces private investment.
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๊ฐœ์ธํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์œ ๋„ํ•  ํ™•์‹คํ•œ ์žฅ์น˜๊ฐ€ ์—†๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:12
If you don't get the policy reform and the aid,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ •์ฑ…๊ฐœํ˜์ด๋‚˜ ์›์กฐ์˜ ์†๊ธธ์ด ์—†๋‹ค๋ฉด
06:16
you don't get the economic recovery,
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ํ‰ํ™”์œ ์ง€๊ตฐ์˜ ์ง„์ •ํ•œ ์ถœ๊ตฌ์ „๋žต์ธ
06:18
which is the true exit strategy for the peacekeepers.
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๊ฒฝ์ œํšŒ๋ณต์ด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:22
So we should recognize that interdependence,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ๊ณต์‹์ ์ธ ์„œ๋กœ๊ฐ„์˜ ์•ฝ์†์„ ํ†ตํ•ด
06:26
by formal, mutual commitments.
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์ƒํ˜ธ์˜์กด์„ฑ์„ ์ธ์ •ํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:29
The United Nations actually has a language
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UN์—๋Š” ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ "์ƒํ˜ธ ์•ฝ์†" ํ˜น์€
06:32
for these mutual commitments, the recognition of mutual commitments;
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"์ƒํ˜ธ ์•ฝ์†์˜ ์ธ์ •"์„ ์ง€์นญํ•˜๋Š” ์šฉ์–ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:35
it's called the language of compact.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ "ํ˜‘์ •์˜ ์–ธ์–ด"๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:39
And so we need a post-conflict compact.
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์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” "๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ํ˜‘์ •"์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:42
The United Nations even has an agency which could broker these compacts;
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UN์—๋Š” ์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด ์ด๋“ค ํ˜‘์ •์„ ์ค‘์žฌํ•  ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:45
it's called the Peace Building Commission.
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"ํ‰ํ™”๊ฑด์„ค์œ„์›ํšŒ"๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:49
It would be ideal to have a standard set of norms
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์ด์ œ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์–ด๋–ค ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ์ฒ˜ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
06:54
where, when we got to a post-conflict situation,
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์ฃผ์š” ๋‹น์‚ฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ˜ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ฑ…๋ฌด๋ฅผ
06:57
there was an expectation of these mutual commitments
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์ดํ–‰ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ํ•˜๋Š” ํ‘œ์ค€์ ์ธ ๊ทœ์•ฝ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
07:01
from the three parties.
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์ด์ƒ์ ์ด๋ฆฌ๋ผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:04
So that's idea one:
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์ด๊ฒŒ ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:07
recognize interdependence.
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์ƒํ˜ธ์˜์กด์„ฑ์˜ ์ธ์ •.
07:10
And now let me turn to the second approach, which is complimentary.
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์ด์ œ ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ณด์™„ํ•  ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:14
And that is to focus on a few critical objectives.
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์ด๋Š” ๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๋ชฉํ‘œ์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:23
Typical post-conflict situation is a zoo
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๋ณดํ†ต์˜ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„์—๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋‹น์‚ฌ์ž๊ฐ„์—
07:26
of different actors with different priorities.
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์šฐ์„  ์ˆœ์œ„๊ฐ€ ๋’ค์ฃฝ๋ฐ•์ฃฝ์ธ ํ˜ผ๋™์˜ ์ƒํ™ฉ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:30
And indeed, unfortunately, if you navigate by needs
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๋ถˆํ–‰ํžˆ, ์‹ค์ œ ํ•„์š”์„ฑ์—๋งŒ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜๋‹ค๋ณด๋ฉด
07:34
you get a very unfocused agenda,
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๋งค์šฐ ์‚ฐ๋งŒํ•œ ์˜์ œ์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด
07:37
because in these situations, needs are everywhere,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒŒ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:40
but the capacity to implement change is very limited.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ตฌํ˜„ํ•  ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์€ ํ•œ์ •๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์ฃ .
07:44
So we have to be disciplined and focus on things that are critical.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์›์น™์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ผ์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:49
And I want to suggest that in the typical post-conflict situation
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๋ณดํ†ต์˜ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ๋Š”
07:52
three things are critical.
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์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:55
One is jobs.
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ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:57
One is improvements in basic services --
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์„œ๋น„์Šค์˜ ๊ฐœ์„ ์ด๊ตฌ์š”.
07:59
especially health, which is a disaster during conflict.
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ํŠนํžˆ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ๋™์•ˆ ๋”์ฐํ–ˆ์„ ์˜๋ฃŒ์„œ๋น„์Šค๋Š” ์ค‘์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:03
So jobs, health, and clean government.
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ, ๊ฑด๊ฐ•, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊นจ๋—ํ•œ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:08
Those are the three critical priorities.
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์ด ์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์šฐ์„  ์ˆœ์œ„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:12
So I'm going to talk a little about each of them.
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์ด์ œ ํ•˜๋‚˜์”ฉ ๋ง ํ•ด ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:14
Jobs.
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์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ.
08:16
What is a distinctive approach
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ฆ๋Œ€์‹œํ‚ค๋Š”
08:19
to generating jobs in post-conflict situations?
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ํ™•์‹คํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ๋ญ˜๊นŒ์š”?
08:22
And why are jobs so important?
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์™œ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์š”ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
08:24
Jobs for whom? Especially jobs for young men.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ์ฃ ? ํŠนํžˆ ์ Š์€ ๋‚จ์„ฑ๋“ค์˜ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:29
In post-conflict situations,
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ข…์ข…
08:31
the reason that they so often revert to conflict,
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ถ„์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š”
08:35
is not because elderly women get upset.
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๋‚˜์ด๋“  ์—ฌ์ž๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ๋ถˆ๋งŒ์— ์Œ“์—ฌ์„œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:38
It's because young men get upset.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ Š์€ ๋‚จ์„ฑ๋“ค์ด ๋ถˆ๋งŒ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:41
And why are they upset? Because they have nothing to do.
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์™œ ์ Š์€ ๋‚จ์„ฑ๋“ค์ด ๋ถˆ๋งŒ์ผ๊นŒ์š”? ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ํ•  ์ผ์ด ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:44
And so we need a process of generating jobs,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๋ณดํ†ต์˜ ์ ‹์€ ๋‚จ์„ฑ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ
08:50
for ordinary young men, fast.
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์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:53
Now, that is difficult.
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์–ด๋ ค์šด ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:56
Governments in post-conflict situation
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ์ฒ˜ํ•œ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š”
08:58
often respond by puffing up the civil service.
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์ข…์ข… ๊ณต๊ณต์„œ๋น„์Šค๋ฅผ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค๋งŒ
09:02
That is not a good idea.
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์ด๋Š” ์ข‹์€ ์ƒ๊ฐ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:04
It's not sustainable.
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์ด๋Š” ์œ ์ง€๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:06
In fact, you're building a long-term liability
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๊ณต๊ณต์„œ๋น„์Šค๋ฅผ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๋ฉด
09:09
by inflating civil service.
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์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ฑธ์นœ ์ฑ„๋ฌด๋งŒ ์Œ“์ผ ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:11
But getting the private sector to expand is also difficult,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„๋ถ€๋ฌธ์„ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์–ด๋ ต์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:15
because any activity which is open to international trade
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ
09:20
is basically going to be uncompetitive
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๊ตญ์ œ์ ์ธ ๋ฌด์—ญ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ๋ชจ๋“  ํ™œ๋™์€
09:22
in a post-conflict situation.
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๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์ด ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:24
These are not environments where you can build export manufacturing.
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์ด๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ถœ์šฉํ’ˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ์žฅ๋ คํ•  ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:29
There's one sector which isn't exposed to international trade,
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๊ตญ์ œ์ ์ธ ๋ฌด์—ญ์— ๋…ธ์ถœ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
09:34
and which can generate a lot of jobs,
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋งŽ์€ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฐฝ์ถœ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:37
and which is, in any case, a sensible sector
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์–ด๋Š ๋ชจ๋กœ ๋ณด๋‚˜ ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ
09:39
to expand, post-conflict,
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ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์ ์ธ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:41
and that is the construction sector.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ฑด์„ค๋ถ€๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:45
The construction sector has a vital role,
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๊ฑด์„ค๋ถ€๋ฌธ์€ ๋ณต๊ตฌ๊ณผ์ •์—์„œ ๋ถ„๋ช…ํžˆ
09:48
obviously, in reconstruction.
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์—ญํ• ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:51
But typically that sector has withered away during conflict.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ถ„์Ÿ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ์ด ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์€ ๋ณดํ†ต ์‡ ํ‡ดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:56
During conflict people are doing destruction.
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๋ถ„์Ÿ๋™์•ˆ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ํŒŒ๊ดดํ•˜์ฃ .
09:58
There isn't any construction going on. And so the sector shrivels away.
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๊ฑด์„ค์€ ์ด๋ค„์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ด ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์€ ์ชผ๊ทธ๋ผ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:02
And then when you try and expand it,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•  ๋•Œ,
10:04
because it's shriveled away,
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์ด๋ฏธ ์ชผ๊ทธ๋ผ๋“ค์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
10:06
you encounter a lot of bottlenecks.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๊ฑธ๋ฆผ๋Œ์— ๋ถ€๋”ชํž™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:09
Basically, prices soar
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๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋น„์šฉ์€ ์ฒœ์ •๋ถ€์ง€๋กœ ์˜ค๋ฅด๊ณ 
10:11
and crooked politicians then milk the rents from the sector,
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๋ถ€ํŒจํ•œ ์ •์น˜์ธ์ด ์ด ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์—์„œ ๋’ท๋ˆ์„ ์ฑ™๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:15
but it doesn't generate any jobs.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ณ ์šฉ์€ ์ฐฝ์ถœ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:17
And so the policy priority is to break the bottlenecks
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ •์ฑ…์ ์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ์„ ์ˆœ์œ„๋Š”
10:20
in expanding the construction sector.
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๊ฑด์„ค๋ถ€๋ฌธ ํ™•๋Œ€์˜ ๊ฑธ๋ฆผ๋Œ ํ•ด์†Œ์— ๋‘์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:23
What might the bottlenecks be?
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์–ด๋–ค ์š”์†Œ๋“ค์ด ๊ฑธ๋ฆผ๋Œ์ด ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
10:25
Just think what you have to do
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๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ์จ์„œ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•  ๋•Œ
10:28
successfully to build a structure, using a lot of labor.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.
10:31
First you need access to land.
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์šฐ์„  ์šฉ์ง€๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:33
Often the legal system is broken down
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์ข…์ข… ๋ฒ•๋ฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ๋ถ•๊ดด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์–ด์„œ
10:35
so you can't even get access to land.
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์šฉ์ง€ํ™•๋ณด๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋ ค์›Œ์ง€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:37
Secondly you need skills,
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๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ ๊ฑด์„ค๋ถ€๋ฌธ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„
10:39
the mundane skills of the construction sector.
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๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ธ๋ ฅ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:43
In post-conflict situations we don't just need Doctors Without Borders,
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„  "๊ตญ๊ฒฝ์—†๋Š” ์˜์‚ฌํšŒ"๋งŒ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ณ 
10:47
we need Bricklayers Without Borders,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” "๊ตญ๊ฒฝ์—†๋Š” ๋ฒฝ๋Œ๊ณต"๋„ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:49
to rebuild the skill set.
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๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋ ฅ์„ ์žฌ๊ฑดํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ์ฃ .
10:52
We need firms. The firms have gone away.
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๊ธฐ์—…๋„ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์—…๋„ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์กŒ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
10:55
So we need to encourage the growth of local firms.
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์ง€์—ญ๊ธฐ์—…์œก์„ฑ์„ ์žฅ๋ คํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:58
If we do that, we not only get the jobs,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ณ ์šฉ๋งŒ ์ฐฝ์ถœ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ณ 
11:01
we get the improvements in public infrastructure,
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๊ณต๊ณต ์ธํ”„๋ผ์˜ ๋ณต์›์„ ํ†ตํ•ด
11:04
the restoration of public infrastructure.
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๊ณต๊ณต ์ธํ”„๋ผ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:07
Let me turn from jobs to the second objective,
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์ด์ œ ๊ณ ์šฉ์—์„œ ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ชฉํ‘œ์ธ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ๊ณต๊ณต์„œ๋น„์Šค์˜
11:13
which is improving basic social services.
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๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ๋„˜์–ด๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:17
And to date, there has been a sort of a schizophrenia
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์ด์ œ๊นŒ์ง€ ์›์กฐ์ œ๊ณต์ž ๊ทธ๋ฃน์—๋Š”
11:21
in the donor community,
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ ๋ณ„ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์„œ๋น„์Šค๋ฅผ
11:23
as to how to build basic services
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๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จํ•ด
11:26
in post-conflict sectors.
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์ผ์ข…์˜ ์ •์‹ ๋ถ„์—ด์  ๋”œ๋ ˆ๋งˆ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:28
On the one hand it pays lip service
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ํ•œํŽธ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” 1950๋…„๋Œ€ ์Šค์บ”๋””๋‚˜๋น„์•„ ๋ฐ˜๋„์˜
11:30
to the idea of rebuild an effective state
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์ด๋ฏธ์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๋ฉฐ ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์žฌ๊ฑดํ•˜๋Š”
11:34
in the image of Scandinavia in the 1950s.
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์•„์ด๋””์–ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋ฒˆ์ง€๋ฅด๋ฅดํ•œ ๋ง์„ ์Ÿ์•„๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:37
Lets develop line ministries of this, that, and the other,
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์ด๋Ÿฌ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์„œ๋น„์Šค๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•  ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ €๋Ÿฐ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ
11:40
that deliver these services.
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์ผ๋ จ์˜ ๋ถ€์ฒ˜๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๋„๋ก ํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค.
11:43
And it's schizophrenic because in their hearts
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์ด๋ฅผ ์ •์‹ ๋ถ„์—ด์ฆ์ด๋ผ ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€์Šด์œผ๋กœ๋Š”
11:46
donors know that's not a realistic agenda,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ด์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:49
and so what they also do is the total bypass:
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์šฐํšŒํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:52
just fund NGOs.
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๊ทธ๋ƒฅ NGO์— ์ž๊ธˆ์„ ์ง€์›ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:56
Neither of those approaches is sensible.
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์–ด๋Š ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋„ ๋ง์ด ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:59
And so what I'd suggest
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
12:03
is what I call Independent Service Authorities.
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"๋…๋ฆฝ์„œ๋น„์Šค ๋‹น๊ตญ"์ด๋ผ ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:06
It's to split the functions of a monopoly line ministry up into three.
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์ด๋Š” ์ผ๋ จ์˜ ๋ถ€์ฒ˜๊ฐ€ ๋…์ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์„ ์…‹์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ 
12:11
The planning function and policy function stays with the ministry;
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๊ณ„ํš๊ธฐ๋Šฅ๊ณผ ์ •์ฑ…๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์€ ๋ถ€์ฒ˜์— ๋‚จ๊ฒจ๋‘๊ณ 
12:15
the delivery of services on the ground,
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์„œ๋น„์Šค๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์€
12:18
you should use whatever works --
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๊ตํšŒ, NGO, ์ง€์—ญ ๊ณต๋™์ฒด๋“ฑ ๊ฐ€๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๋ง๊ณ 
12:20
churches, NGOs, local communities,
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์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€๋Š” ์กฐ์ง๋“ค์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:23
whatever works.
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์–ด๋–ค ์กฐ์ง์ด๊ฑด ์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€๊ธฐ๋งŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:25
And in between, there should be a public agency,
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๊ทธ ์‚ฌ์ด๋Š” ๊ณต๊ณต ๋Œ€ํ–‰ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์œผ๋กœ
12:28
the Independent Service Authority,
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"๋…๋ฆฝ์„œ๋น„์Šค ๋‹น๊ตญ"์„ ๋‘์–ด
12:30
which channels public money,
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๊ณต๊ณต ์ž๋ณธ, ํŠนํžˆ ์›์กฐ์ œ๊ณต์ž์˜ ๋ˆ์ด
12:32
and especially donor money,
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๋ง๋‹จ์˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์ž๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€๊ฒŒ๋” ํ•˜๋Š”
12:34
to the retail providers.
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ํ†ต๋กœ์—ญํ• ์„ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:37
So the NGOs become part of a public government system,
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ NGO๋„ ๋…๋ฆฝ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
12:42
rather than independent of it.
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๊ณต๊ณต ์ •๋ถ€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ผ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:45
One advantage of that is that you can allocate money coherently.
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ์ž๊ธˆ์„ ์ผ๊ด€๋˜๊ฒŒ ๋ถ„๋ฐฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์žฅ์ ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:49
Another is, you can make NGOs accountable.
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๋”๋ถˆ์–ด NGO๋„ ์ฑ…์ž„๊ฐ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:52
You can use yardstick competition,
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์ผ์ •ํ•œ ์ฒ™๋„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:54
so they have to compete against each other
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ž์›์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
12:57
for the resources.
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NGO๋„ ์„œ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:59
The good NGOs, like Oxfam, are very keen on this idea.
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์˜ฅ์ŠคํŒœ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ํ›Œ๋ฅญํ•œ NGO๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด์— ๋งค์šฐ ์ต์ˆ™ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:02
They want to have the discipline and accountability.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์›์น™๊ณผ ์ฑ…์ž„๊ฐ์„ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ด ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:08
So that's a way to get basic services scaled up.
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์„œ๋น„์Šค๊ฐ€ ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:11
And because the government would be funding it,
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์•„์šธ๋Ÿฌ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์ž๊ธˆ์„ ์ง€์›ํ•˜๋Š” ๋งŒํผ
13:14
it would be co-branding these services.
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์ด๋“ค ์„œ๋น„์Šค์˜ ๊ณต๋„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:16
So they wouldn't be provided thanks to
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์ฆ‰, ์ด๋“ค ์„œ๋น„์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ •๋ถ€๋‚˜ ์–ด๋Š NGO๋•๋ถ„์—
13:20
the United States government and some NGO.
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์ œ๊ณต๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
13:24
They would be co-branded
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๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ž๊ตญ์˜ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€
13:26
as being done by the post-conflict government, in the country.
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ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:31
So, jobs, basic services, finally, clean government.
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์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ, ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์„œ๋น„์Šค. ์ด์ œ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ๊นจ๋—ํ•œ ์ •๋ถ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:37
Clean means follow their money.
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๊นจ๋—ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ž๊ธˆ ํ๋ฆ„ ํŒŒ์•…์ด ์‰ฝ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:40
The typical post-conflict government is so short of money
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๋ณดํ†ต ๋ถ„์Ÿ ํ›„ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์ž๊ธˆ์ด ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋ถ€์กฑํ•ด์„œ
13:45
that it needs our money
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์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ƒ๋ช…์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•  ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์œผ๋กœ
13:47
just to be on a life-support system.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ž๊ธˆ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:50
You can't get the basic functions of the state done
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ž๊ธˆ์ด ์ด๋“ค ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์— ํŽธ์ž…๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ํ•œ
13:53
unless we put money into the core budget of these countries.
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๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ์—ญํ• ์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:57
But, if we put money into the core budget,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์— ์ž๊ธˆ์„ ํŽธ์ž…์‹œํ‚ค๋ฉด
14:01
we know that there aren't the budget systems with integrity
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๋ˆ์ด ์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ์“ฐ์ด๋Š”์ง€ ๊ฐ๋…ํ•  ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
14:08
that mean that money will be well spent.
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๋ˆ์ด ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ํ—ˆ๋น„๋˜๊ณค ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:11
And if all we do is put money in and close our eyes
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ˆ์„ ์ฃผ๊ธฐ๋งŒ ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ˆˆ์„ ๊ฐ์•„ ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๋ฉด
14:15
it's not just that the money is wasted --
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๋ˆ๋งŒ ํ—ˆ๋น„ ํ• ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:17
that's the least of the problems --
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์ž‘์€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ผ ๋ฟ์ด์ฃ .
14:19
it's that the money is captured.
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๊ทธ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ˆ์ด ์—‰๋šฑํ•œ ๊ณณ์— ์Œ“์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:22
It's captured by the crooks who are at the heart of the political problem.
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์ฆ‰, ์ •์น˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅํ•ต์‹ฌ์ธ๋ฌผ์ด ๊ทธ ๋ˆ์„ ์ถ•์žฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:28
And so inadvertently we empower the people who are the problem.
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์›ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฌธ์ œ ๋งŽ์€ ์ธ๋ฌผ์ด ํž˜์„ ๋” ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:33
So building clean government means, yes, provide money
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๊นจ๋—ํ•œ ์ •๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€, ์˜ˆ,
14:36
to the budget,
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๋ˆ์„ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์— ํŽธ์ž…ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:38
but also provide a lot of scrutiny,
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๋”๋ถˆ์–ด ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:43
which means a lot of technical assistance that follows the money.
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์ด๋Š” ์ž๊ธˆ์˜ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ ์ธ ์ง€์›์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:46
Paddy Ashdown, who was the grand high nabob of Bosnia
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UN์˜ ๋ณด์ฆˆ๋‹ˆ์•„ ๊ณ ๋“ฑ ๋Œ€ํ‘œ์˜€๋˜
14:51
to the United Nations,
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ํŒจ๋”” ์• ์‰ฌ๋‹ค์šด์€ ๊ทธ์˜ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์„ ๋‹ด์€
14:53
in his book about his experience, he said,
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์ฑ…์—์„œ "๋‚˜์—๊ฒŒ ํ•„์š”ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์€
14:55
"I realize what I needed
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์ž๊ธˆ์˜ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ๊ด€๋ฆฌํ• 
14:58
was accountants without borders,
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๊ตญ๊ฒฝ ์—†๋Š” ํšŒ๊ณ„์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด์—ˆ์Œ์„
15:02
to follow that money."
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๊นจ๋‹ฌ์•˜๋‹ค."๋ผ๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:04
So that's the -- let me wrap up,
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๋งˆ๋ฌด๋ฆฌ ์ง“๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:07
this is the package.
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์ด๊ฒŒ ํ•œ ๋ฌถ์Œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:10
What's the goal?
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๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” ๋ฌด์—‡์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
15:12
If we follow this, what would we hope to achieve?
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ์ด๋ฃฐ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
15:16
That after 10 years,
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ํ•œ 10๋…„์ฏค ์ง€๋‚˜๋ฉด
15:19
the focus on the construction sector
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๊ฑด์„ค๋ถ€๋ฌธ์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•œ ๋•๋ถ„์—
15:22
would have produced both jobs
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๊ณ ์šฉ์ด ์ฐฝ์ถœ๋˜๊ณ  ๋”๋ถˆ์–ด
15:24
and, hence, security --
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์•ˆ์ „๋ณด์žฅ๋„ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด
15:26
because young people would have jobs --
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์ Š์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ง์—…์ด ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
15:28
and it would have reconstructed the infrastructure.
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๋˜ํ•œ ์ธํ”„๋ผ๋„ ์žฌ๊ฑดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:32
So that's the focus on the construction sector.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ฑด์„ค๋ถ€๋ฌธ์˜ ์ดˆ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:35
The focus on the basic service delivery
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์ด๋“ค "๋…๋ฆฝ์„œ๋น„์Šค ๋‹น๊ตญ"์„ ํ†ตํ•ด
15:37
through these independent service authorities
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์„œ๋น„์Šค๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ
15:40
would have rescued basic services
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์ง‘์ค‘ํ•จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋”์ฐํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด์—ˆ๋˜
15:43
from their catastrophic levels,
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๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์„œ๋น„์Šค๋Š” ๋ณต๊ตฌ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:46
and it would have given ordinary people
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์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ธ๋“ค์€ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€
15:49
the sense that the government was doing something useful.
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์œ ์šฉํ•œ ์ผ์„ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋Š๋‚Œ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:53
The emphasis on clean government
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๊นจ๋—ํ•œ ์ •๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•˜๋ฉด
15:56
would have gradually squeezed out the political crooks,
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๋ถ€ํŒจํ•œ ์ •์น˜์ธ์„ ์„œ์„œํžˆ ํ‡ด์ถœํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:59
because there wouldn't be any money
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ •์น˜์— ์ฐธ์—ฌํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
16:03
in taking part in the politics.
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๋ˆ์„ ์–ป์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:05
And so gradually the selection,
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ •์น˜์ธ์˜ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ์ด
16:07
the composition of politicians,
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๋ถ€ํŒจํ•œ ์ธ๋ฌผ์—์„œ ์ •์งํ•œ ์ธ๋ฌผ๋กœ
16:09
would shift from the crooked to the honest.
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์ ์ฐจ ๋ฐ”๋€Œ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:14
Where would that leave us?
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒ ๋ญ๊ฐ€ ๋‚จ์„๊นŒ์š”?
16:17
Gradually it would shift
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์กฐ๊ธˆ์”ฉ ์•ฝํƒˆ์˜ ์ •์น˜์—์„œ
16:19
from a politics of plunder
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ํฌ๋ง์˜ ์ •์น˜๋กœ
16:22
to a politics of hope. Thank you.
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๋ณ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:25
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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