Paul Collier's new rules for rebuilding a broken nation

33,897 views ใƒป 2009-06-24

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Amir Rothschild ืžื‘ืงืจ: Daniel Millet
00:16
I'm going to talk about post-conflict recovery
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ืื ื™ ื”ื•ืœืš ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืฉื™ืงื•ื ืื—ืจ-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜
00:22
and how we might do post-conflict recovery better.
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ื•ืื™ืš ืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืฉืงื ืื—ืจ-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ื˜ื•ื‘ ื™ื•ืชืจ.
00:27
The record on post-conflict recovery is not very impressive.
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ื”ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื” ืฉืœ ืฉื™ืงื•ื ืื—ืจ-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ืœื ืžืื•ื“ ืžืจืฉื™ืžื”.
00:32
40 percent of all post-conflict situations,
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40 ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื ืžื›ืœ ื”ืžืฆื‘ื™ื ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜,
00:36
historically, have reverted back to conflict within a decade.
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ื”ื™ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ืช, ื”ื“ืจื“ืจื• ื—ื–ืจื” ืœืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ืชื•ืš ืขืฉื•ืจ.
00:40
In fact, they've accounted for half of all civil wars.
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื”ื ืื—ืจืื™ื ืœื—ืฆื™ ืžืžืœื—ืžื•ืช ื”ืื–ืจื—ื™ื.
00:45
Why has the record been so poor?
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ืžื“ื•ืข ื”ื™ื• ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื›ื” ืขื’ื•ืžื•ืช?
00:48
Well, the conventional approach
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ื”ื’ื™ืฉื” ื”ืฉื’ืจืชื™ืช
00:51
to post-conflict situations
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ืœืžืฆื‘ื™ื ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜
00:53
has rested on, on kind of, three principles.
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ื ื—ื” ืขืœ, ื‘ืขืจืš, ืฉืœื•ืฉื” ืขืงืจื•ื ื•ืช.
00:57
The first principle is: it's the politics that matters.
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ื”ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื, ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ืฉืžืฉื ื”.
01:02
So, the first thing that is prioritized is politics.
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ืœื›ืŸ, ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ืฉืžืชืขื“ืคื™ื ื”ื•ื ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื”.
01:05
Try and build a political settlement first.
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ื ืกื” ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ื”ืกื“ืจ ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ ืชื—ื™ืœื”.
01:10
And then the second step is to say,
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ื•ืื– ื”ืฉืœื‘ ื”ืฉื ื™ ื”ื•ื ืœื•ืžืจ,
01:13
"The situation is admittedly dangerous, but only for a short time."
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"ืื™ืŸ ืกืคืง ืฉื”ืžืฆื‘ ืžืกื•ื›ืŸ, ืื‘ืœ ืจืง ืœืชืงื•ืคื” ืงืฆืจื”."
01:16
So get peacekeepers there, but get them home as soon as possible.
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ืœื›ืŸ, ื”ื‘ื ืฉื•ืžืจื™-ืฉืœื•ื, ืื‘ืœ ื”ื—ื–ืจ ืื•ืชื ื”ื‘ื™ืชื” ืžื•ืงื“ื ื›ื›ืœ ื”ืืคืฉืจ.
01:21
So, short-term peacekeepers.
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ, ืฉื•ืžืจื™-ืฉืœื•ื ืงืฆืจื™-ืžื•ืขื“.
01:24
And thirdly, what is the exit strategy for the peacekeepers?
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ื•ืฉืœื™ืฉื™ืช, ืžื” ื”ื™ื ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื™ืช ื”ืžื™ืœื•ื˜ ืฉืœ ืฉื•ืžืจื™-ื”ืฉืœื•ื?
01:28
It's an election.
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ื”ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ื”ื™ื ื‘ื—ื™ืจื•ืช.
01:30
That will produce a legitimate and accountable government.
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ืฉื™ื™ืฆืจื• ืžืžืฉืœื” ืœื’ื™ื˜ื™ืžื™ืช ื•ืื—ืจืื™ืช.
01:35
So that's the conventional approach.
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ืื– ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ื’ื™ืฉื” ื”ืฉื’ืจืชื™ืช.
01:38
I think that approach denies reality.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื’ื™ืฉื” ื–ื• ืžืชื›ื—ืฉืช ืœืžืฆื™ืื•ืช.
01:42
We see that there is no quick fix.
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ืื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ืฉืื™ืŸ ืคืชืจื•ืŸ ืžื”ื™ืจ.
01:46
There's certainly no quick security fix.
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ืœืœื ืกืคืง ืื™ืŸ ืคืชืจื•ืŸ ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ื ื™ ืžื”ื™ืจ.
01:49
I've tried to look at the risks of reversion to conflict,
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ื ื™ืกื™ืชื™ ืœื”ืกืชื›ืœ ืขืœ ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื ืœื”ื“ืจื“ืจ ื—ื–ืจื” ืœืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜,
01:52
during our post-conflict decade.
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ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ื”ืขืฉื•ืจ ืฉืœืื—ืจ ื”ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ืฉืœื ื•.
01:54
And the risks stay high throughout the decade.
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ื•ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื ื ื•ืชืจื™ื ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื™ื ืœืื•ืจืš ื›ืœ ื”ืขืฉื•ืจ.
01:58
And they stay high regardless of the political innovations.
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ื•ื”ื ื ื•ืชืจื™ื ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื™ื ืœืœื ืชืœื•ืช ื‘ื—ื™ื“ื•ืฉื™ื ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ื™ื.
02:05
Does an election produce an accountable and legitimate government?
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ื”ืื ื‘ื—ื™ืจื•ืช ื™ื•ืฆืจื•ืช ืžืžืฉืœื” ืื—ืจืื™ืช ื•ืœื’ื™ื˜ื™ืžื™ืช?
02:10
What an election produces is a winner and a loser.
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ืžื” ืฉื‘ื—ื™ืจื•ืช ื™ื•ืฆืจื•ืช ื”ื ืžื ืฆื— ื•ืžืคืกื™ื“.
02:15
And the loser is unreconciled.
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ื•ื”ืžืคืกื™ื“ ืื™ื ื• ืžืคื•ื™ืก.
02:20
The reality is that we need to reverse the sequence.
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ื”ืืžืช ื”ื™ื ืฉืื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืืช ื”ืกื“ืจ.
02:24
It's not the politics first;
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ืœื ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ืชื—ื™ืœื”;
02:26
it's actually the politics last.
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ืื—ืจื•ื ื”.
02:29
The politics become easier as the decade progresses
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ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ื ืขืฉื™ืช ืงืœื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื›ื›ืœ ืฉื”ืขืฉื•ืจ ืžืชืงื“ื
02:32
if you're building on a foundation
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ืื ืืชื” ื‘ื•ื ื” ืขืœ ื™ืกื•ื“ื•ืช
02:35
of security and economic development --
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ืฉืœ ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ื•ื”ืชืคืชื—ื•ืช ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช.
02:40
the rebuilding of prosperity.
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ื”ื‘ื ื™ื™ื” ืžื—ื“ืฉ ืฉืœ ืฉืคืข.
02:42
Why does the politics get easier?
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ืžื“ื•ืข ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ื ืขืฉื™ืช ืงืœื” ื™ื•ืชืจ?
02:44
And why is it so difficult initially?
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ื•ืœืžื” ื”ื™ื ื›ื” ืงืฉื” ื‘ื”ืชื—ืœื”?
02:46
Because after years of stagnation and decline,
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉืื—ืจื™ ืฉื ื™ื ืฉืœ ืงื™ืคืื•ืŸ ื•ื”ืชื“ืจื“ืจื•ืช,
02:50
the mentality of politics is that it's a zero-sum game.
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ื”ืœืš ื”ืจื•ื— ืฉืœ ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ื”ื•ื ืฉืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ืžืฉื—ืง ืกื›ื•ื-ืืคืก.
02:56
If the reality is stagnation,
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ืื ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช ื”ื™ื ืงื™ืคืื•ืŸ,
02:58
I can only go up if you go down.
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ืžืฆื‘ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ืฉืชืคืจ ืจืง ืื ืžืฆื‘ืš ืžืชื“ืจื“ืจ.
03:01
And that doesn't produce a productive politics.
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ื•ื–ื” ืœื ื™ื•ืฆืจ ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ืžื•ืขื™ืœื”.
03:06
And so the mentality has to shift from
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื”ืœืš ื”ืจื•ื— ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ืฉืชื ื•ืช
03:09
zero-sum to positive-sum
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ืžืžืฉื—ืง ืกื›ื•ื-ืืคืก ืœืžืฉื—ืง ืกื›ื•ื-ื—ื™ื•ื‘ื™
03:11
before you can get a productive politics.
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ืœืคื ื™ ืฉืชื•ื›ืœ ืœืงื‘ืœ ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ืžื•ืขื™ืœื”.
03:15
You can only get positive, that mental shift,
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ืชื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืœืื•ืคื˜ื™ืžื™, ืœืขื‘ื•ืจ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืžื—ืฉื‘ืชื™, ืจืง ืื
03:17
if the reality is that prosperity is being built.
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ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช ื”ื™ื ืฉืฉืคืข ื ื‘ื ื” ืกื‘ื™ื‘ืš.
03:21
And in order to build prosperity, we need security in place.
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ื•ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ืฉืคืข, ืื ื• ื–ืงื•ืงื™ื ืœื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ืชื—ื™ืœื”.
03:26
So that is what you get when you face reality.
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ืื– ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉืืชื” ืžืงื‘ืœ ื›ืฉืืชื” ืžืชืžื•ื“ื“ ืขื ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช.
03:28
But the objective of facing reality
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืžื˜ืจื” ืฉืœ ื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ื•ืช ืขื ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช
03:30
is to change reality.
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ื”ื™ื ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช.
03:32
And so now let me suggest
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืชื ื• ืœื™ ืœื”ืฆื™ืข
03:34
two complimentary approaches
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ืฉืชื™ ื’ื™ืฉื•ืช ืžืฉืœื™ืžื•ืช
03:38
to changing the reality of the situations.
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ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืžืฆื‘ื™ื.
03:41
The first is to recognize the interdependence
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ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ื”ื™ื ืœื–ื”ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืชืœื•ืช ื”ื”ื“ื“ื™ืช
03:45
of three key actors, who are different actors,
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ืฉืœื•ืฉื” ื’ื•ืจืžื™ ืžืคืชื—, ืฉื”ื ืฉื—ืงื ื™ื ืฉื•ื ื™ื,
03:50
and at the moment are uncoordinated.
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ื•ื›ืจื’ืข ืœื ืžืชื•ืืžื™ื.
03:53
The first actor is the Security Council.
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ื”ื’ื•ืจื ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ืžื•ืขืฆืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ.
03:56
The Security Council typically has the responsibility
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ืœืžื•ืขืฆืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ื™ืฉ ื‘ื“"ื› ืืช ื”ืื—ืจื™ื•ืช
04:00
for providing the peacekeepers
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ืœืกืคืง ืืช ืฉื•ืžืจื™-ื”ืฉืœื•ื
04:02
who build the security.
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ืฉื‘ื•ื ื™ื ืืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ.
04:05
And that needs to be recognized,
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ื•ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ื›ื™ืจ ื‘ื–ื”,
04:07
first of all, that peacekeeping works.
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ืจืืฉื™ืช ื›ืœ, ืฉืฉืžื™ืจืช ื”ืฉืœื•ื ืขื•ื‘ื“ืช.
04:10
It is a cost-effective approach.
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ื–ื• ื’ื™ืฉื” ืžืฉืชืœืžืช.
04:12
It does increase security.
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ื”ื™ื ืื›ืŸ ืžืฉืคืจืช ืืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ.
04:15
But it needs to be done long-term.
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื™ื ืฆืจื™ื›ื” ืœื”ืขืฉื•ืช ืœื–ืžืŸ ืืจื•ืš.
04:17
It needs to be a decade-long approach,
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ื”ื’ื™ืฉื” ืฆืจื™ื›ื” ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืœืื•ืจืš ืขืฉื•ืจ,
04:19
rather than just a couple of years.
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ื‘ืžืงื•ื ืจืง ืœืื•ืจืš ืฉื ื™ื ื‘ื•ื“ื“ื•ืช.
04:21
That's one actor, the Security Council.
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ื–ื” ืฉื—ืงืŸ ืื—ื“, ืžื•ืขืฆืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ.
04:24
The second actor, different cast of guys,
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ื”ืฉื—ืงืŸ ื”ืฉื ื™, ืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ืื—ืจืช ืฉืœ ืื ืฉื™ื,
04:27
is the donors.
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืชื•ืจืžื™ื.
04:29
The donors provide post-conflict aid.
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ื”ืชื•ืจืžื™ื ืžืกืคืงื™ื ืกื™ื•ืข ืื—ืจ-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜.
04:32
Typically in the past,
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืกื•ืจืชื™ ื‘ืขื‘ืจ,
04:35
the donors have been interested in the first couple of years,
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ื”ืชื•ืจืžื™ื ื”ืชืขื ื™ื™ื ื• ื‘ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื•ืช,
04:38
and then they got bored.
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ื•ืื—"ื› ื”ืฉืชืขืžืžื•.
04:40
They moved on to some other situation.
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ื”ื ืขื‘ืจื• ืœืื™ื–ื” ืžืงื•ื ืื—ืจ.
04:43
Post-conflict economic recovery
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ืฉื™ืงื•ื ื›ืœื›ืœื” ืื—ืจ-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜
04:45
is a slow process.
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ื”ื•ื ืชื”ืœื™ืš ืื™ื˜ื™.
04:47
There are no quick processes in economics
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ืื™ืŸ ืชื”ืœื™ื›ื™ื ืžื”ื™ืจื™ื ื‘ื›ืœื›ืœื”
04:50
except decline.
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ืžืœื‘ื“ ื”ืชื“ืจื“ืจื•ืช.
04:52
You can do that quite fast.
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ืืคืฉืจ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืืช ื–ื” ื“ื™ ืžื”ืจ.
04:54
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
04:55
So the donors have to stick with this situation
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ืœื›ืŸ ื”ืชื•ืจืžื™ื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœื”ืฉืืจ ืขื ื”ืžืฆื‘ ื”ื–ื”
05:00
for at least a decade.
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ืœืคื—ื•ืช ืœืขืฉื•ืจ.
05:04
And then the third key actor
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ื•ืฉื—ืงืŸ ื”ืžืคืชื— ื”ืฉืœื™ืฉื™
05:06
is the post-conflict government.
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืžืžืฉืœื” ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™ ื”ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜.
05:09
And there are two key things it's got to do.
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ื•ื™ืฉ ืฉื ื™ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืžืจื›ื–ื™ื™ื ืฉื”ื™ื ืฆืจื™ื›ื” ืœืขืฉื•ืช.
05:11
One is it's got to do economic reform,
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ื”ืื—ื“ ื”ื•ื ืฉื”ื™ื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ืช ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืจืคื•ืจืžื” ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช,
05:15
not fuss about the political constitution.
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ื•ืœื ืœืจื™ื‘ ืขืœ ื”ื”ืจื›ื‘ ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ ืฉืœ ื”ืฉืœื˜ื•ืŸ,
05:18
It's got to reform economic policy.
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ื”ื™ื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ืช ืœืชืงืŸ ืืช ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช.
05:20
Why? Because during conflict
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ืžื“ื•ืข? ืžืฉื•ื ืฉื‘ืžื”ืœืš ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜
05:23
economic policy typically deteriorates.
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ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืช ืœืจื•ื‘ ืžืชื“ืจื“ืจืช.
05:26
Governments snatch short-term opportunities
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ืžืžืฉืœื•ืช ืžื ืกื•ืช ืœื—ื˜ื•ืฃ ื”ื–ื“ืžื ื•ื™ื•ืช ืงืฆืจื•ืช-ืžื•ืขื“.
05:30
and, by the end of the conflict, the chickens have come home to roost.
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ื•ื›ืฉื”ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ื ื’ืžืจ, ืฆืจื™ืš ื›ื‘ืจ ืœืฉืœื ืืช ื”ื—ืฉื‘ื•ืŸ.
05:34
So this legacy of conflict is really bad economic policy.
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ืื– ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ืฉื ื•ืชืจืช ืžืชืงื•ืคืช ื”ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ื”ื™ื ื‘ืืžืช ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช ืจืขื”.
05:37
So there is a reform agenda, and there is an inclusion agenda.
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ืื– ื™ืฉ ืื’'ื ื“ื” ืฉืœ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™, ื•ื™ืฉ ืื’'ื ื“ื” ืฉืœ ื”ื›ืœืœื”.
05:41
The inclusion agenda doesn't come from elections.
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ื”ืื’'ื ื“ื” ืฉืœ ื”ื›ืœืœื” ืœื ืžื’ื™ืขื” ืžื‘ื—ื™ืจื•ืช.
05:44
Elections produce a loser, who is then excluded.
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ื‘ื—ืจื•ืช ื™ื•ืฆืจื•ืช ืžืคืกื™ื“, ืฉืื—"ื› ื ื•ืชืจ ื‘ื—ื•ืฅ.
05:49
So the inclusion agenda means genuinely
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ืื– ื”ื›ื•ื•ื ื” ืฉืœ ืื’'ื ื“ืช ื”ื”ื›ืœืœื” ื”ื™ื ื‘ื›ื ื•ืช
05:52
bringing people inside the tent.
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ืœื”ื›ื ื™ืก ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืื ืฉื™ื ืœืื•ื”ืœ.
05:55
So those three actors.
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ืื– ืฉืœื•ืฉืช ื”ืฉื—ืงื ื™ื ื”ืœืœื•.
05:57
And they are interdependent
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ื•ื”ื ืชืœื•ื™ื™ื ื”ื“ื“ื™ืช
05:59
over a long term.
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ืœืื•ืจืš ืชืงื•ืคื” ืืจื•ื›ื”.
06:02
If the Security Council doesn't commit to security
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ืื ืžื•ืขืฆืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ืœื ืžืกื•ืจื” ืœื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ
06:06
over the course of a decade,
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ืœืื•ืจืš ื”ืขืฉื•ืจ,
06:08
you don't get the reassurance which produces private investment.
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ืื™ืŸ ืœืš ืืช ื”ืฉื‘ืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ืฉื™ื•ืฆืจืช ื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช ืคืจื˜ื™ื•ืช.
06:12
If you don't get the policy reform and the aid,
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ืื ืื™ืŸ ืœืš ืืช ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื•ื”ืกื™ื•ืข,
06:16
you don't get the economic recovery,
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ืืชื” ืœื ืžืงื‘ืœ ืืช ื”ืฉื™ืงื•ื ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™,
06:18
which is the true exit strategy for the peacekeepers.
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ืฉื”ื•ื ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื™ืช ื”ืžื™ืœื•ื˜ ื”ืืžื™ืชื™ืช ืœืฉื•ืžืจื™-ื”ืฉืœื•ื.
06:22
So we should recognize that interdependence,
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ืื– ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื”ื›ื™ืจ ื‘ืชืœื•ืช ื”ื”ื“ื“ื™ืช ื”ื–ื•,
06:26
by formal, mutual commitments.
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ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื”ืชื—ื™ื™ื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ื“ื“ื™ื•ืช ืคื•ืจืžืœื™ื•ืช.
06:29
The United Nations actually has a language
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ืœืื•"ื ื™ืฉ ืœืžืขืฉื” ืฉืคื”
06:32
for these mutual commitments, the recognition of mutual commitments;
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ืœื”ืชื—ื™ื™ื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ื”ื“ื“ื™ื•ืช ื”ืœืœื•, ื”ื”ื›ืจื” ื‘ื”ืชื—ื™ื™ื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ื“ื“ื™ื•ืช.
06:35
it's called the language of compact.
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ื”ื™ื ื ืงืจืืช ื”ืฉืคื” ืฉืœ ื‘ืจื™ืช.
06:39
And so we need a post-conflict compact.
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื‘ืจื™ืช ืื—ืจ-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ื™ืช.
06:42
The United Nations even has an agency which could broker these compacts;
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ืœืื•"ื ื™ืฉ ืืคื™ืœื• ืกื•ื›ื ื•ืช ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœืชื•ื•ืš ื‘ื›ืืœื• ื‘ืจื™ืชื•ืช.
06:45
it's called the Peace Building Commission.
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ื”ื™ื ื ืงืจืืช ื•ืขื“ืช ื‘ื ื™ื™ืช ื”ืฉืœื•ื.
06:49
It would be ideal to have a standard set of norms
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ื™ื”ื™ื” ืื™ื“ื™ืืœื™ ืื ื™ื”ื™ื” ืื•ืกืฃ ืกื˜ื ื“ืจื˜ื™ ืฉืœ ื ื•ืจืžื•ืช
06:54
where, when we got to a post-conflict situation,
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ืืฉืจ, ื›ืืฉืจ ืžื’ื™ืขื™ื ืœืžืฆื‘ ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜,
06:57
there was an expectation of these mutual commitments
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ื™ืฆืคื• ืœื”ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืช ื”ื“ื“ื™ื•ืช ื”ืœืœื•
07:01
from the three parties.
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ืžืฉืœื•ืฉืช ื”ืฆื“ื“ื™ื ื”ืœืœื•.
07:04
So that's idea one:
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ืื– ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ.
07:07
recognize interdependence.
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ืœื–ื”ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืชืœื•ืช ื”ื”ื“ื“ื™ืช.
07:10
And now let me turn to the second approach, which is complimentary.
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ื•ื›ืขืช ืืฉื•ื‘ ืœื’ื™ืฉื” ื”ืฉื ื™ื”, ืฉื”ื™ื ืžืฉืœื™ืžื”.
07:14
And that is to focus on a few critical objectives.
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ื•ื”ื™ื ืœื”ืชืžืงื“ ืขืœ ืžืขื˜ ืžื˜ืจื•ืช ืงืจื™ื˜ื™ื•ืช.
07:23
Typical post-conflict situation is a zoo
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ืœืจื•ื‘ ื”ืžืฆื‘ ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ื”ื™ื ื’ืŸ ื—ื™ื•ืช
07:26
of different actors with different priorities.
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ืฉืœ ืฉื—ืงื ื™ื ืฉื•ื ื™ื ืขื ืขื“ื™ืคื•ื™ื•ืช ืฉื•ื ื•ืช.
07:30
And indeed, unfortunately, if you navigate by needs
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ื•ืื›ืŸ, ืœืžืจื‘ื” ื”ืฆืขืจ, ืื ืืชื” ืžื ื•ื•ื˜ ืœืคื™ ืฆืจื›ื™ื
07:34
you get a very unfocused agenda,
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ืืชื” ืžืงื‘ืœ ืื’'ื ื“ื” ืžืื•ื“ ืžืคื•ื–ืจืช.
07:37
because in these situations, needs are everywhere,
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ืžื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื‘ืžืฆื‘ ื”ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ, ืฆืจื›ื™ื ื ืžืฆืื™ื ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงื•ื.
07:40
but the capacity to implement change is very limited.
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืžืื•ื“ ืžื•ื’ื‘ืœืช.
07:44
So we have to be disciplined and focus on things that are critical.
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ืื– ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืžื•ืฉืžืขื™ื ื•ืœื”ืชืžืงื“ ื‘ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืงืจื™ื˜ื™ื™ื.
07:49
And I want to suggest that in the typical post-conflict situation
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ื•ืœื“ืขืชื™, ื‘ืžืฆื‘ ื”ืื—ืจ-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ื™ ื”ืกื˜ื ื“ืจื˜ื™
07:52
three things are critical.
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ืฉืœื•ืฉื” ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ื ืงืจื™ื˜ื™ื™ื.
07:55
One is jobs.
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ืื—ื“ ื”ื•ื ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช.
07:57
One is improvements in basic services --
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ืื—ื“ ื”ื•ื ืฉื™ืคื•ืจื™ื ื‘ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื”ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ื™ื.
07:59
especially health, which is a disaster during conflict.
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ื‘ืžื™ื•ื—ื“ ื‘ืชื—ื•ื ื”ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช, ืฉื”ื•ื ืืกื•ืŸ ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜.
08:03
So jobs, health, and clean government.
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ืื– ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช, ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช ื•ืžืžืฉืœื” ื ืงื™ื™ื”.
08:08
Those are the three critical priorities.
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ืืœื• ื”ื ืฉืœื•ืฉืช ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืงืจื™ื˜ื™ื™ื.
08:12
So I'm going to talk a little about each of them.
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ืื– ืื“ื‘ืจ ืงืฆืช ืขืœ ื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื.
08:14
Jobs.
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ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช.
08:16
What is a distinctive approach
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ืžื”ื™ ื’ื™ืฉื” ืžื™ื•ื—ื“ืช
08:19
to generating jobs in post-conflict situations?
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ืœื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช ื‘ืžืฆื‘ ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜?
08:22
And why are jobs so important?
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ื•ืžื“ื•ืข ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช ื”ืŸ ื›ื” ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื•ืช?
08:24
Jobs for whom? Especially jobs for young men.
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ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช ืœืžื™? ื‘ืžื™ื•ื—ื“ ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช ืœืื ืฉื™ื ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื.
08:29
In post-conflict situations,
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ื‘ืžืฆื‘ ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜,
08:31
the reason that they so often revert to conflict,
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ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืฉื”ืŸ ืžืชื“ืจื“ืจื•ืช ื—ื–ืจื” ืœืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ืœืขื™ืชื™ื ื›ื” ืงืจื•ื‘ื•ืช,
08:35
is not because elderly women get upset.
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ืื™ื ื” ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื ืฉื™ื ืžื‘ื•ื’ืจื•ืช ืžืชืขืฆื‘ื ื•ืช.
08:38
It's because young men get upset.
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ื–ื” ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื ืžืชืขืฆื‘ื ื™ื.
08:41
And why are they upset? Because they have nothing to do.
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ื•ืžื“ื•ืข ื”ื ืžืชืขืฆื‘ื ื™ื? ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉืื™ืŸ ืœื”ื ืžื” ืœืขืฉื•ืช.
08:44
And so we need a process of generating jobs,
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ, ืื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืชื”ืœื™ืš ืฉืœ ื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ืžืฉืจื•ืช,
08:50
for ordinary young men, fast.
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ืœืื ืฉื™ื ืจื’ื™ืœื™ื ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื, ืžื”ืจ.
08:53
Now, that is difficult.
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ื–ื” ืงืฉื”.
08:56
Governments in post-conflict situation
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ืžืžืฉืœื•ืช ื‘ืžืฆื‘ ืฉืœ ืื—ืจ-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜
08:58
often respond by puffing up the civil service.
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ืžื’ื™ื‘ื•ืช ื‘ื“"ื› ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื ื™ืคื•ื— ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืช ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™.
09:02
That is not a good idea.
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ื–ื” ืื™ื ื ื• ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื˜ื•ื‘.
09:04
It's not sustainable.
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ืœื ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืชื—ื–ืง ืืช ื–ื”.
09:06
In fact, you're building a long-term liability
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืืชื” ื‘ื•ื ื” ืชืœื•ืช ืืจื•ื›ืช-ืชื•ื•ืš
09:09
by inflating civil service.
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ื‘ื ื™ืคื•ื— ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืช ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™.
09:11
But getting the private sector to expand is also difficult,
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ืื‘ืœ ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ืคืจื˜ื™ ืœื”ืชืจื—ื‘ ื–ื” ื’ื ืงืฉื”.
09:15
because any activity which is open to international trade
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ืžืฉื•ื ืฉื›ืœ ืคืขื™ืœื•ืช ืฉื”ื™ื ืคืชื•ื—ื” ืœืžืกื—ืจ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืœืื•ืžื™
09:20
is basically going to be uncompetitive
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ื”ื•ืœื›ืช ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืœื ืชื—ืจื•ืชื™ืช
09:22
in a post-conflict situation.
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ื‘ืžืฆื‘ ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜.
09:24
These are not environments where you can build export manufacturing.
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ืืœื• ืื™ื ืŸ ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื•ืช ื‘ื”ืŸ ืืชื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ืชืขืฉื™ื™ื” ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœื™ื™ืฆื.
09:29
There's one sector which isn't exposed to international trade,
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ื™ืฉ ืžื’ื–ืจ ืื—ื“ ืฉืื™ื ื• ื—ืฉื•ืฃ ืœืžืกื—ืจ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืœืื•ืžื™,
09:34
and which can generate a lot of jobs,
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ื•ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื™ื™ืฆืจ ื”ืจื‘ื” ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช.
09:37
and which is, in any case, a sensible sector
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ื•ืฉื”ื•ื, ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงืจื”, ืžื’ื–ืจ ืฉื”ื’ื™ื•ื ื™
09:39
to expand, post-conflict,
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ืœื”ืจื—ื™ื‘, ืื—ืจื™ ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜.
09:41
and that is the construction sector.
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ื•ื–ื”ื• ืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ื‘ื ื™ื™ื”.
09:45
The construction sector has a vital role,
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ืœืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ื‘ื ื™ื™ื” ืชืคืงื™ื“ ื—ื™ื•ื ื™,
09:48
obviously, in reconstruction.
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ืœืœื ืกืคืง, ื‘ื‘ื ื™ื™ื” ืžื—ื“ืฉ.
09:51
But typically that sector has withered away during conflict.
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ืื‘ืœ ืœืจื•ื‘, ืžื’ื–ืจ ื–ื” ืžืฆื˜ืžืง ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜.
09:56
During conflict people are doing destruction.
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ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ืื ืฉื™ื ื”ื•ืจืกื™ื.
09:58
There isn't any construction going on. And so the sector shrivels away.
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ืœื ืžืชืจื—ืฉืช ืฉื•ื ื‘ื ื™ื™ื”. ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื”ืžื’ื–ืจ ืžืฆื˜ืžืง.
10:02
And then when you try and expand it,
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ื•ืื– ื›ืฉืืชื” ืžื ืกื” ืœื”ืจื—ื™ื‘ ืื•ืชื•,
10:04
because it's shriveled away,
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื”ื•ื ืžืฆื•ืžืง,
10:06
you encounter a lot of bottlenecks.
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ืืชื” ื ืชืงืœ ื‘ื”ืจื‘ื” ืฆื•ื•ืืจื™ ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืง.
10:09
Basically, prices soar
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ื‘ืขืงืจื•ืŸ, ืžื—ื™ืจื™ื ืžืžืจื™ืื™ื
10:11
and crooked politicians then milk the rents from the sector,
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ื•ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงืื™ื ืžื•ืฉื—ืชื™ื ื—ื•ืœื‘ื™ื ืืช ื”ื›ืกืฃ ืฉื”ืžื’ื–ืจ ืžืงื‘ืœ.
10:15
but it doesn't generate any jobs.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืœื ืžื™ื™ืฆืจ ืฉื•ื ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช.
10:17
And so the policy priority is to break the bottlenecks
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื” ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ื”ื™ื ืœืฉื‘ื•ืจ ืืช ืฆื•ื•ืืจื™ ื”ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืง
10:20
in expanding the construction sector.
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ื‘ื”ืจื—ื‘ืช ืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ื‘ื ื™ื”.
10:23
What might the bottlenecks be?
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ืžื” ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืฆื•ื•ืืจื™ ื”ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืง?
10:25
Just think what you have to do
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ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืชื—ืฉื‘ื• ืžื” ืขืœื™ื›ื ืœื”ืฆืœื™ื— ืœืขืฉื•ืช
10:28
successfully to build a structure, using a lot of labor.
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ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ืžื‘ื ื”, ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื”ืจื‘ื” ื›ื•ื— ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”.
10:31
First you need access to land.
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ืชื—ื™ืœื” ืืชื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื ื’ื™ืฉื•ืช ืœืงืจืงืข.
10:33
Often the legal system is broken down
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ืœืขื™ืชื™ื ืงืจื•ื‘ื•ืช ื”ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ืžืฉืคื˜ื™ืช ืฉื‘ื•ืจื”
10:35
so you can't even get access to land.
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ื•ืื™ื ืš ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ืืคื™ืœื• ื ื’ื™ืฉื•ืช ืœืงืจืงืข.
10:37
Secondly you need skills,
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ืฉื ื™ืช ืืชื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืžื™ื•ืžื ื•ืช,
10:39
the mundane skills of the construction sector.
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ื”ืžื™ื•ืžื ื•ืช ื”ืจื’ื™ืœื” ืฉืœ ืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ื‘ื ื™ื™ื”.
10:43
In post-conflict situations we don't just need Doctors Without Borders,
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ื‘ืžืฆื‘ื™ื ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ืื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืจื•ืคืื™ื ืœืœื ื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืช,
10:47
we need Bricklayers Without Borders,
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ืื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื‘ื ืื™ื ืœืœื ื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืช,
10:49
to rebuild the skill set.
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ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ืžื—ื“ืฉ ืืช ืื•ืกืฃ ื”ืžื™ื•ืžื ื•ื™ื•ืช.
10:52
We need firms. The firms have gone away.
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ืื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช. ื”ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ืกืชืœืงื•.
10:55
So we need to encourage the growth of local firms.
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ืื– ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืขื•ื“ื“ ื”ืชืคืชื—ื•ืช ืฉืœ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืžืงื•ืžื™ื•ืช.
10:58
If we do that, we not only get the jobs,
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ืื ื ืขืฉื” ื–ืืช, ืœื ืจืง ืฉื ื™ืฆื•ืจ ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช,
11:01
we get the improvements in public infrastructure,
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ื ืฆืœื™ื— ื’ื ืœืฉืคืจ ืืช ื”ืชืฉืชื™ื•ืช ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ื•ืช,
11:04
the restoration of public infrastructure.
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ื”ืฉื™ืงื•ื ืฉืœ ืชืฉืชื™ื•ืช ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ื•ืช.
11:07
Let me turn from jobs to the second objective,
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ื›ืขืช ืืขื‘ื•ืจ ืžืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช ืœืžื˜ืจื” ื”ืฉื ื™ื™ื”,
11:13
which is improving basic social services.
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ืฉื”ื™ื ืฉื™ืคื•ืจ ื‘ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ื™ื ื”ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ื™ื.
11:17
And to date, there has been a sort of a schizophrenia
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ื•ืขื“ ื›ื”, ื”ื™ืชื” ืกื•ื’ ืฉืœ ืกื›ื™ื–ื•ืคืจื ื™ื”
11:21
in the donor community,
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ื‘ืงื”ื™ืœืช ื”ืชื•ืจืžื™ื,
11:23
as to how to build basic services
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ื‘ืืฉืจ ืœืื™ืš ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ื™ื
11:26
in post-conflict sectors.
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ื‘ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜.
11:28
On the one hand it pays lip service
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ืžืฆื“ ืื—ื“ ื–ื” ืœืฉืœื ืžืก ืฉืคืชื™ื™ื
11:30
to the idea of rebuild an effective state
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ืœืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื‘ื ื™ื™ื” ืžื—ื“ืฉ ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืžืชืคืงื“ืช
11:34
in the image of Scandinavia in the 1950s.
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ื‘ื“ืžื•ืชื” ืฉืœ ืกืงื ื“ื™ื ื‘ื™ื” ื‘ืฉื ื•ืช ื”50.
11:37
Lets develop line ministries of this, that, and the other,
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ื‘ื•ืื• ื ืคืชื— ืžืฉื“ืจื™ ืžืžืฉืœื” ืฉืœ ื–ื”, ื–ื”, ื•ื–ื”,
11:40
that deliver these services.
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ืฉืžืกืคืงื™ื ืืช ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื”ื‘ืื™ื.
11:43
And it's schizophrenic because in their hearts
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ื•ื–ื” ืกื›ื™ื–ื•ืคืจื ื™ ืžืฉื•ื ืฉื‘ืœื™ื‘ื
11:46
donors know that's not a realistic agenda,
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ื”ืชื•ืจืžื™ื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉื–ื• ืœื ืื’'ื ื“ื” ื”ื’ื™ื•ื ื™ืช.
11:49
and so what they also do is the total bypass:
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืžื” ืฉื”ื ืขื•ื“ ืขื•ืฉื™ื ื”ื•ื ืขื™ืงื•ืฃ ืžื•ืฉืœื.
11:52
just fund NGOs.
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ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืœืžืžืŸ ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ืœื ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ื™ื.
11:56
Neither of those approaches is sensible.
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ืฉืชื™ ื”ื’ื™ืฉื•ืช ื”ืœืœื• ื—ืกืจื•ืช ื”ื’ื™ื•ืŸ.
11:59
And so what I'd suggest
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืžื” ืฉืืฆื™ืข
12:03
is what I call Independent Service Authorities.
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ื”ื•ื ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืงื•ืจื ืœื• ืจืฉื•ื™ื•ืช ืขืฆืžืื™ื•ืช ืœืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื.
12:06
It's to split the functions of a monopoly line ministry up into three.
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ื–ื” ืœืคืฆืœ ืืช ื”ืชืคืงื™ื“ื™ื ืฉืœ ืžืฉืจื“ ื”ืžืžืฉืœื” ื”ืžื•ื ื•ืคื•ืœื™ ืœืฉืœื•ืฉื”.
12:11
The planning function and policy function stays with the ministry;
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ืชืคืงื™ื“ ื”ืชื›ื ื•ืŸ ื•ืชืคืงื™ื“ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื ืฉืืจื™ื ื‘ืžืฉืจื“.
12:15
the delivery of services on the ground,
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ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœ ืœืกืคืง ืืช ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื‘ืฉื˜ื—
12:18
you should use whatever works --
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ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ื›ืœ ืžื” ืฉืขื•ื‘ื“,
12:20
churches, NGOs, local communities,
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ื›ื ืกื™ื•ืช, ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ืœื ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ื™ื, ืงื”ื™ืœื•ืช ืžืงื•ืžื™ื•ืช.
12:23
whatever works.
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ืžื” ืฉืขื•ื‘ื“.
12:25
And in between, there should be a public agency,
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ื•ื‘ื™ืŸ ืœื‘ื™ืŸ, ืฆืจื™ื›ื” ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืกื•ื›ื ื•ืช ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ืช,
12:28
the Independent Service Authority,
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ื”ืจืฉื•ืช ื”ืขืฆืžืื™ืช ืœืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื
12:30
which channels public money,
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ืฉืžืชืขืœืช ืืช ื”ื›ืกืฃ ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™,
12:32
and especially donor money,
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ื•ื‘ืžื™ื•ื—ื“ ืืช ื›ืกืคื™ ื”ืชืจื•ืžื•ืช,
12:34
to the retail providers.
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ืœืกืคืงื™ ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื.
12:37
So the NGOs become part of a public government system,
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ื›ืš ื”ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ื”ืœื ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ื™ื ื”ื•ืคื›ื™ื ืœื—ืœืง ืžื”ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ืช,
12:42
rather than independent of it.
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ื‘ืžืงื•ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื—ืœืง ื‘ืœืชื™ ืชืœื•ื™ ื‘ื”.
12:45
One advantage of that is that you can allocate money coherently.
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ื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ืื—ื“ ืฉืœ ื–ื” ื”ื•ื ืฉืืชื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ืงืฆื™ื‘ ื›ืกืฃ ื‘ืขืงื‘ื™ื•ืช.
12:49
Another is, you can make NGOs accountable.
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ื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ืื—ืจ, ื”ื•ื ืฉืืชื” ื”ื•ืคืš ืืช ื”ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ื”ืœื ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ื™ื ืœืื—ืจืื™ื.
12:52
You can use yardstick competition,
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ืืชื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืชื—ืจื•ืช ืœืคื™ ืงืจื™ื˜ืจื™ื•ื ื™ื.
12:54
so they have to compete against each other
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ื›ืš ืฉื”ื ื™ืฆื˜ืจื›ื• ืœื”ืชื—ืจื•ืช ืื—ื“ ื ื’ื“ ื”ืฉื ื™
12:57
for the resources.
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ืขืœ ื”ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื.
12:59
The good NGOs, like Oxfam, are very keen on this idea.
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ื”ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ื”ืœื ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ื™ื ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื™ื, ื›ืžื• ืื•ืงืกืคื, ืžืื•ื“ ืื•ื”ื‘ื™ื ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื–ื”.
13:02
They want to have the discipline and accountability.
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ื”ื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืขืœื™ ื”ืžืฉืžืขืช ื•ื”ืื—ืจื™ื•ืช.
13:08
So that's a way to get basic services scaled up.
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ืื– ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื“ืจืš ืœืงื‘ืœ ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ื™ื ืžืฉื•ืคืจื™ื.
13:11
And because the government would be funding it,
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ื•ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื”ืžืžืฉืœื” ืชืžืžืŸ ื–ืืช,
13:14
it would be co-branding these services.
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ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื”ืœืœื• ื™ืฉื•ื•ืงื• ื‘ืฉืžื•ืช ืฉื ื™ื”ื.
13:16
So they wouldn't be provided thanks to
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ืœื›ืŸ ื”ื ืœื ื™ืกื•ืคืงื• ืชื•ื“ื•ืช
13:20
the United States government and some NGO.
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ืœืžืžืฉืœืช ืืจื”"ื‘ ื•ื›ืžื” ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ืœื ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ื™ื.
13:24
They would be co-branded
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ื”ื ื™ืฉื•ื•ืงื• ื›ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื
13:26
as being done by the post-conflict government, in the country.
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ืฉื ื™ืชื ื• ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžืžืฉืœืช ืื—ืจื™-ื”ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื”.
13:31
So, jobs, basic services, finally, clean government.
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ืื–, ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช, ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ื™ื ื•ืœื‘ืกื•ืฃ ืžืžืฉืœื” ื ืงื™ื™ื”.
13:37
Clean means follow their money.
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ื‘ื ืงื™ ื”ื›ื•ื•ื ื” ืœืขืงื•ื‘ ืื—ืจื™ ื”ื›ืกืฃ ืฉืœื”ื.
13:40
The typical post-conflict government is so short of money
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ื”ืžืžืฉืœื” ื”ื ืคื•ืฆื” ืฉืœ ืื—ืจื™-ืงื•ื ืคืœื™ืงื˜ ื”ื™ื ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืงืฆืจื” ื‘ื›ืกืฃ
13:45
that it needs our money
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ืฉื”ื™ื ืฆืจื™ื›ื” ืืช ื”ื›ืกืฃ ืฉืœื ื•
13:47
just to be on a life-support system.
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ืจืง ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœ ืœื ืœื”ืชืžื•ื˜ื˜.
13:50
You can't get the basic functions of the state done
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ืœื ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื‘ืฆืข ืืช ื”ืชืคืงื™ื“ื™ื ื”ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืžื“ื™ื ื”
13:53
unless we put money into the core budget of these countries.
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ืืœื ืื ื›ืŸ ื ื›ื ื™ืก ื›ืกืฃ ืœืชืงืฆื™ื‘ ื”ืœื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืืœื•.
13:57
But, if we put money into the core budget,
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื ืฉื™ื ื›ืกืฃ ื‘ืชืงืฆื™ื‘ ื”ืœื™ื‘ื”,
14:01
we know that there aren't the budget systems with integrity
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ืื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉืื™ืŸ ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ืชืงืฆื™ื‘ื™ื•ืช ืืžื™ื ื•ืช,
14:08
that mean that money will be well spent.
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ืฉืžืฉืžืขื•ืชืŸ ืฉื”ื›ืกืฃ ื™ื ื•ืฆืœ ื›ื”ืœื›ื”.
14:11
And if all we do is put money in and close our eyes
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ื•ืื ื›ืœ ืžื” ืฉื ืขืฉื” ื”ื•ื ืœืชืช ื›ืกืฃ ื•ืœืขืฆื•ื ืืช ืขื™ื ื ื•.
14:15
it's not just that the money is wasted --
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ื–ื” ืœื ืกืชื ืฉื‘ื–ื‘ื–ื ื• ืืช ื”ื›ืกืฃ,
14:17
that's the least of the problems --
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ื–ื• ื”ืงื˜ื ื” ื‘ื‘ืขื™ื•ืชื™ื ื•,
14:19
it's that the money is captured.
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ื–ื” ืฉื”ื›ืกืฃ ื ืœื›ื“.
14:22
It's captured by the crooks who are at the heart of the political problem.
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ื”ื•ื ื ืœื›ื“ ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืฉื—ืชื™ื ืฉื ืžืฆืื™ื ื‘ืœื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืช.
14:28
And so inadvertently we empower the people who are the problem.
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ื•ื›ืš, ืœื ื‘ื›ื•ื•ื ื”, ืื ื• ืžื—ื–ืงื™ื ืืช ื”ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉื”ื ื”ื‘ืขื™ื”.
14:33
So building clean government means, yes, provide money
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ืื– ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ืžืžืฉืœื” ื ืงื™ื™ื” ืžืฉืžืขื•, ื›ืŸ, ืœืกืคืง ื›ืกืฃ
14:36
to the budget,
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ืœืชืงืฆื™ื‘.
14:38
but also provide a lot of scrutiny,
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ืื‘ืœ ื’ื ืœื‘ื—ื•ืŸ ืžืื•ื“ ื‘ืงืคื“ื ื•ืช.
14:43
which means a lot of technical assistance that follows the money.
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ ื”ืจื‘ื” ืขื–ืจื” ื˜ื›ื ื™ืช ืฉืขื•ืงื‘ืช ืื—ืจื™ ื”ื›ืกืฃ.
14:46
Paddy Ashdown, who was the grand high nabob of Bosnia
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ืคืื“ื™ ืืฉื“ืื•ื•ืŸ, ืฉื”ื™ื” ื”ื ืฆื™ื’ ื”ื’ื‘ื•ื” ืœืขื ื™ื™ื ื™ ื‘ื•ืกื ื™ื”
14:51
to the United Nations,
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ื‘ืื•"ื,
14:53
in his book about his experience, he said,
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ื‘ืกืคืจื• ืขืœ ื ืกื™ื•ื ื•, ืืžืจ,
14:55
"I realize what I needed
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"ืื ื™ ืžื‘ื™ืŸ ืฉืžื” ืฉื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ืฆืจื™ืš
14:58
was accountants without borders,
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ื”ื™ื” ืจื•ืื™ ื—ืฉื‘ื•ืŸ ืœืœื ื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืช,
15:02
to follow that money."
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ืฉื™ืขืงื‘ื• ืื—ืจ ื”ื›ืกืฃ."
15:04
So that's the -- let me wrap up,
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ืื– ื–ื”ื• ื” --- ื”ื‘ื” ื ืกื›ื,
15:07
this is the package.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื”ื—ื‘ื™ืœื”.
15:10
What's the goal?
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ืžื” ื”ืžื˜ืจื”?
15:12
If we follow this, what would we hope to achieve?
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ืื ื ืขืงื•ื‘ ืื—ืจื™ ื–ื”, ืžื” ื ืงื•ื•ื” ืœื”ืฉื™ื’?
15:16
That after 10 years,
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ืฉื‘ืžื”ืœืš 10 ื”ืฉื ื™ื,
15:19
the focus on the construction sector
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ื”ืคื•ืงื•ืก ืขืœ ืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ื‘ื ื™ื™ื”
15:22
would have produced both jobs
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ื’ื ื™ื™ืฆืจ ืžืฉืจื•ืช
15:24
and, hence, security --
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ, ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ.
15:26
because young people would have jobs --
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉืœืื ืฉื™ื ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื ื™ืฉ ืขื‘ื•ื“ื•ืช.
15:28
and it would have reconstructed the infrastructure.
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ื•ื”ื•ื ื™ืฉืงื ืืช ื”ืชืฉืชื™ืช.
15:32
So that's the focus on the construction sector.
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ืื– ื–ื” ื”ืคื•ืงื•ืก ืขืœ ืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ื‘ื ื™ื™ื”.
15:35
The focus on the basic service delivery
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ื”ืคื•ืงื•ืก ืขืœ ืกื™ืคื•ืง ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื”ืžืจื›ื–ื™ื™ื
15:37
through these independent service authorities
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ื“ืจืš ืื•ืชืŸ ืจืฉื•ื™ื•ืช ืขืฆืžืื™ื•ืช ืœืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื
15:40
would have rescued basic services
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ื”ืฆื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ื ื”ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ื™ื
15:43
from their catastrophic levels,
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ืžืžืฆื‘ื ื”ื”ืจื•ืก.
15:46
and it would have given ordinary people
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ื•ื ื™ืชื ื” ืœืื ืฉื™ื ื”ืจื’ื™ืœื™ื
15:49
the sense that the government was doing something useful.
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ื”ืชื—ื•ืฉื” ืฉื”ืžืžืฉืœื” ืขื•ืฉื” ืžืฉื”ื• ืžื•ืขื™ืœ.
15:53
The emphasis on clean government
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ื”ื“ื’ืฉ ืขืœ ืžืžืฉืœื” ื ืงื™ื™ื”
15:56
would have gradually squeezed out the political crooks,
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ื“ื—ืง ื”ื—ื•ืฆื” ืœืื™ื˜ื• ืืช ื”ืžื•ืฉื—ืชื™ื ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ื™ื.
15:59
because there wouldn't be any money
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉืœื ื”ื™ื” ื›ืœืœ ื›ืกืฃ
16:03
in taking part in the politics.
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ื‘ื”ืฉืชืชืคื•ืช ื‘ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื”.
16:05
And so gradually the selection,
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื‘ื”ื“ืจื’ืชื™ื•ืช ื”ื‘ื—ื™ืจื”,
16:07
the composition of politicians,
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ื”ื”ืจื›ื‘ ืฉืœ ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงืื™ื,
16:09
would shift from the crooked to the honest.
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ื™ื–ื•ื– ืžื”ืžื•ืฉื—ืช ืœื™ืฉืจ.
16:14
Where would that leave us?
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ื”ื™ื›ืŸ ื–ื” ื™ืฉืื™ืจ ืื•ืชื ื•?
16:17
Gradually it would shift
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ื‘ื”ื“ืจื’ืชื™ื•ืช ื–ื” ื™ื‘ื™ื
16:19
from a politics of plunder
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ืžืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ืฉืœ ื‘ื–ื™ื–ื”
16:22
to a politics of hope. Thank you.
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ืœืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ืฉืœ ืชืงื•ื•ื”. ืชื•ื“ื” ืœื›ื.
16:25
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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