Paul Collier's new rules for rebuilding a broken nation

譯者: Tiffany Wang 審譯者: Jenny Yang

I'm going to talk about post-conflict recovery

我今天要講的是關於衝突後重建的問題

and how we might do post-conflict recovery better.

以及我們如何更好地進行戰後重建

The record on post-conflict recovery is not very impressive.

以往關這方面的記錄並不是很好

40 percent of all post-conflict situations,

歷史上，經過衝突後重建的地區，

historically, have reverted back to conflict within a decade.

有40％在十年之內又再次發生了衝突

In fact, they've accounted for half of all civil wars.

實際上，它們占了所有內戰的一半

Why has the record been so poor?

為甚麼關於這方面的記錄如此不好呢？

Well, the conventional approach

這是因為，傳統的解決

to post-conflict situations

衝突後情況的方法

has rested on, on kind of, three principles.

是基於以下三條原則

The first principle is: it's the politics that matters.

第一條原則，政治是首要的。

So, the first thing that is prioritized is politics.

所以，首先被給與優先的是政治，

Try and build a political settlement first.

即應該先試著從政治角度解決。

And then the second step is to say,

然後第二步就是要告訴大家

"The situation is admittedly dangerous, but only for a short time."

雖然現如今的狀況很危險，但是這只會持續很短的時間

So get peacekeepers there, but get them home as soon as possible.

於是就會派維和人員過去，不過要讓他們盡快撤出。

So, short-term peacekeepers.

所以，第二點就是短期維和。

And thirdly, what is the exit strategy for the peacekeepers?

第三個問題就是，維和人員撤出的策略是甚麼？

It's an election.

那就是進行選舉

That will produce a legitimate and accountable government.

這樣就能建立一個合法並且可信的政府

So that's the conventional approach.

所以以上就是傳統的解決方式

I think that approach denies reality.

我認為這種方式違背了實際的情況

We see that there is no quick fix.

我們可以看到，這並不是一個非常快速的解決方法

There's certainly no quick security fix.

因此也就肯定不能很快達到維和的目的。

I've tried to look at the risks of reversion to conflict,

我已經開始關注在衝突後重建的十年之內

during our post-conflict decade.

再次發生衝突的風險。

And the risks stay high throughout the decade.

這樣的風險在這十年里非常高，

And they stay high regardless of the political innovations.

而且不管如何進行政治上的創新，風險都會很高

Does an election produce an accountable and legitimate government?

選舉真的能夠建立一個可信並且合法的政府嗎？

What an election produces is a winner and a loser.

選舉產生的只有一個贏者和一個失敗者

And the loser is unreconciled.

失敗者是不會甘心的

The reality is that we need to reverse the sequence.

現實是我們需要把事情的順序倒過來

It's not the politics first;

政治並不是最首要的

it's actually the politics last.

實際上政治是最次要的

The politics become easier as the decade progresses

在戰後十年的過程中，政治變得越來越容易

if you're building on a foundation

如果你能夠在

of security and economic development --

安定和經濟發展得基礎上進行重建

the rebuilding of prosperity.

重建繁榮

Why does the politics get easier?

為甚麼政治會變得越來越容易呢？

And why is it so difficult initially?

而且為甚麼在最初的時候最難呢？

Because after years of stagnation and decline,

這是因為經歷了幾年的停滯和倒退之後

the mentality of politics is that it's a zero-sum game.

政治家的心態就是這是一個“零和”心態，即一方有所得，另外一方必然有所損失，得失相加等於零。

If the reality is stagnation,

如果實際情況是停滯不前

I can only go up if you go down.

那麼只有你下台了我才能上台

And that doesn't produce a productive politics.

這不能建立一個非常有成效的政治體系

And so the mentality has to shift from

所以這樣的心態需要

zero-sum to positive-sum

從零和轉變到正和

before you can get a productive politics.

這樣才能建立一個有成效的政治體系

You can only get positive, that mental shift,

只有你轉變了思想，才能達到積極的結果

if the reality is that prosperity is being built.

相信繁榮正在恢復。

And in order to build prosperity, we need security in place.

為了能建立繁榮，我們需要安定

So that is what you get when you face reality.

這才是面對現實的好處。

But the objective of facing reality

但是面對現實的目的是

is to change reality.

改變現實

And so now let me suggest

所以接下來我想提

two complimentary approaches

兩條補充的建議

to changing the reality of the situations.

來改變現有的狀況

The first is to recognize the interdependence

第一條是認識到三個主要角色的相互依賴性－

of three key actors, who are different actors,

這三個因素各不相同

and at the moment are uncoordinated.

而且目前還不能協調運作。

The first actor is the Security Council.

第一個參與者是安理會

The Security Council typically has the responsibility

安理會通常有義務

for providing the peacekeepers

輸送維和人員

who build the security.

來維持安定。

And that needs to be recognized,

我們首先需要認識到

first of all, that peacekeeping works.

維和是有效果的

It is a cost-effective approach.

這是一個經濟有效的方法

It does increase security.

確實能夠增強安定

But it needs to be done long-term.

不過需要強調的是，維和是一項長期工程，

It needs to be a decade-long approach,

需要延續十年

rather than just a couple of years.

而不是僅僅堅持短短的幾年

That's one actor, the Security Council.

這就是第一個關鍵角色，安理會

The second actor, different cast of guys,

第二個來自另一個階層的角色，

is the donors.

是捐助者，

The donors provide post-conflict aid.

捐助者提供衝突後重建的資金幫助

Typically in the past,

通常在過去

the donors have been interested in the first couple of years,

捐助者在最初的幾年里對項目很感興趣

and then they got bored.

後來他們就感到厭煩了

They moved on to some other situation.

轉去關注其他事件。

Post-conflict economic recovery

戰後的經濟重建

is a slow process.

是一個非常漫長的過程

There are no quick processes in economics

在經濟學上沒有甚麼捷徑，

except decline.

除了經濟衰退以外

You can do that quite fast.

這個發生起來可快了。

(Laughter)

（觀眾笑）

So the donors have to stick with this situation

所以捐助者要堅持下去，

for at least a decade.

至少要堅持10年

And then the third key actor

第三個關鍵角色，

is the post-conflict government.

就是衝突後重建的政府

And there are two key things it's got to do.

他們有兩個必須做得事情

One is it's got to do economic reform,

一個就是進行經濟改革

not fuss about the political constitution.

而不是在政治格局方面爭論不休。

It's got to reform economic policy.

他們需要改革經濟政策

Why? Because during conflict

為甚麼？因為在戰爭衝突中

economic policy typically deteriorates.

經濟政策通常受到損害

Governments snatch short-term opportunities

政府只顧抓住短期的利益

and, by the end of the conflict, the chickens have come home to roost.

在戰爭結束的時候，就會發現害人終害己。

So this legacy of conflict is really bad economic policy.

所以衝突的一個產物就是惡性的經濟政策。

So there is a reform agenda, and there is an inclusion agenda.

我們需要一個改革的計劃，同時還要有一個如何吸納各方力量的計劃。

The inclusion agenda doesn't come from elections.

這一個計劃並不能通過選舉來實現

Elections produce a loser, who is then excluded.

選舉會產生一個失敗者，他們通常都會被排除在外

So the inclusion agenda means genuinely

吸納計劃是真正

bringing people inside the tent.

將人們集合到同一個帳營下來。

So those three actors.

這就是我所說的三個重要角色，

And they are interdependent

他們在很長一段時間內，

over a long term.

是相互依賴的。

If the Security Council doesn't commit to security

如果安理會在今後的十年內

over the course of a decade,

並不致力於社會安定，

you don't get the reassurance which produces private investment.

就不可能得到吸引私人投資

If you don't get the policy reform and the aid,

如果你不能實現政策改革，不能得到資助

you don't get the economic recovery,

就不能實現經濟復蘇

which is the true exit strategy for the peacekeepers.

維和人員就沒有辦法真正撤出。

So we should recognize that interdependence,

因此，對於這種相互依賴性，

by formal, mutual commitments.

應該以各方的正式承諾來相互認定。

The United Nations actually has a language

事實上聯合國對於這種相互承諾

for these mutual commitments, the recognition of mutual commitments;

有專門的表述

it's called the language of compact.

叫做約定語言

And so we need a post-conflict compact.

而我們需要的就是衝突後的約定。

The United Nations even has an agency which could broker these compacts;

聯合國甚至還有個對這類約定仲裁的機構，

it's called the Peace Building Commission.

叫做“和平建立委員會”。

It would be ideal to have a standard set of norms

要是有一套標準就理想了，

where, when we got to a post-conflict situation,

這樣不論何時何地出現衝突後事件，

there was an expectation of these mutual commitments

人們可以期待上述三個角色

from the three parties.

建立履行這些承諾。

So that's idea one:

以上是我的兩條改變衝突後現狀的補充方法之一 －

recognize interdependence.

認識相互依賴性。

And now let me turn to the second approach, which is complimentary.

下面我要講的是第二個補充辦法，

And that is to focus on a few critical objectives.

即專著於實現幾個關鍵目標。

Typical post-conflict situation is a zoo

傳統的衝突後情況就像一個動物園，

of different actors with different priorities.

裡面有許多不同的角色，他們都有不同的側重點。

And indeed, unfortunately, if you navigate by needs

如果以需求為導向，那麼很不幸的，

you get a very unfocused agenda,

將會有一堆雜亂，沒有重點的事要辦。

because in these situations, needs are everywhere,

這是因為衝突後，需求無處不在，

but the capacity to implement change is very limited.

而滿足這些需求的能力是有限的。

So we have to be disciplined and focus on things that are critical.

所以我們應有秩序，集中解決關鍵的事。

And I want to suggest that in the typical post-conflict situation

我的建議是，在一般的衝突後情況下，

three things are critical.

三件事是關鍵的。

One is jobs.

一是就業，

One is improvements in basic services --

一是改進基礎服務，

especially health, which is a disaster during conflict.

尤其是衛生，衝突時根本無衛生可言。

So jobs, health, and clean government.

另一個是廉潔的政府。

Those are the three critical priorities.

這三者是黨務之急。

So I'm going to talk a little about each of them.

下面我會就這三者稍微分別談論一下。

Jobs.

就業

What is a distinctive approach

甚麼方法是明確有效的，

to generating jobs in post-conflict situations?

能在衝突後的地區創造就業機會？

And why are jobs so important?

還有為甚麼就業如此重要？

Jobs for whom? Especially jobs for young men.

讓誰就業？首要是年輕男性。

In post-conflict situations,

發生過衝突的地區，

the reason that they so often revert to conflict,

為甚麼會回復到衝突狀態的一個原因

is not because elderly women get upset.

並不是因上了年紀的

It's because young men get upset.

而是因為年輕男人感到不滿意

And why are they upset? Because they have nothing to do.

為甚麼他們感到不滿意。因為他們無事可做

And so we need a process of generating jobs,

正因為如此，我們需要有一套流程

for ordinary young men, fast.

給普通年輕男性創造工作機會，而且要快。

Now, that is difficult.

要做到這一點，是很不容易的。

Governments in post-conflict situation

衝突後的政府

often respond by puffing up the civil service.

通常的應對方式就是猛招公務員。

That is not a good idea.

這並不是一個很好的主意

It's not sustainable.

這是不可持續的

In fact, you're building a long-term liability

實際上，把政府部門變得臃腫，

by inflating civil service.

是在欠下長期債務。

But getting the private sector to expand is also difficult,

然而，要讓私人行業擴張也很困難

because any activity which is open to international trade

因為任何國際貿易相關的業務

is basically going to be uncompetitive

在衝突後的情況下

in a post-conflict situation.

基本都不會有競爭力

These are not environments where you can build export manufacturing.

這種環境下發展出口型生產是行不通的。

There's one sector which isn't exposed to international trade,

有一個行業，跟國際貿易無關

and which can generate a lot of jobs,

並且能創造很多工作機會

and which is, in any case, a sensible sector

而且這個行業，無論怎麼說

to expand, post-conflict,

在衝突後擴大，都是很明智的

and that is the construction sector.

這就是建築業

The construction sector has a vital role,

很明顯，建築業在重建中，

obviously, in reconstruction.

扮演關鍵角色

But typically that sector has withered away during conflict.

不過在衝突過程中，它一般都萎縮掉了。

During conflict people are doing destruction.

衝突時，人們破壞建築

There isn't any construction going on. And so the sector shrivels away.

沒有任何工程在建，行業也就因此收縮了。

And then when you try and expand it,

那麼當想要擴張的時候，

because it's shriveled away,

由於行業已經收縮了，

you encounter a lot of bottlenecks.

就會碰到很多瓶頸

Basically, prices soar

基本上價格飛漲

and crooked politicians then milk the rents from the sector,

不良政客還要從中牟利

but it doesn't generate any jobs.

卻沒有新的工作崗位產生。

And so the policy priority is to break the bottlenecks

為此， 應該有政策優先打破

in expanding the construction sector.

妨礙建築業擴張的瓶頸。

What might the bottlenecks be?

瓶頸都有哪些呢

Just think what you have to do

只要設想一下有個建築項目，需要雇用大量勞動力

successfully to build a structure, using a lot of labor.

有甚麼是要順利完成的，就清楚了。

First you need access to land.

首先需要土地

Often the legal system is broken down

通常這個時候法律系統是癱瘓的

so you can't even get access to land.

可能根本沒有辦法得到土地

Secondly you need skills,

其次需要技術

the mundane skills of the construction sector.

建築業必須的技術

In post-conflict situations we don't just need Doctors Without Borders,

衝突後，需要的不只是無國界醫生

we need Bricklayers Without Borders,

還需要無國界的磚瓦匠

to rebuild the skill set.

來重新掌握技術

We need firms. The firms have gone away.

另外還需要公司。原來的公司已經撤掉了

So we need to encourage the growth of local firms.

那就要鼓勵發展地方企業

If we do that, we not only get the jobs,

這樣做，不僅能製造就業機會

we get the improvements in public infrastructure,

還能改善基礎公共設施

the restoration of public infrastructure.

修復基礎公共設施

Let me turn from jobs to the second objective,

講了就業，下面要講第二個目標

which is improving basic social services.

改善基礎社會服務

And to date, there has been a sort of a schizophrenia

然而至今為止，關於衝突後情況下，

in the donor community,

如何改善基本服務

as to how to build basic services

在捐助者群體中，

in post-conflict sectors.

存在著一種精神分裂

On the one hand it pays lip service

一方面他們嘴上說得很好聽

to the idea of rebuild an effective state

要重建一個有效的國家

in the image of Scandinavia in the 1950s.

以50年代的斯堪地那維亞為藍本；

Lets develop line ministries of this, that, and the other,

設立這樣那樣的部

that deliver these services.

來提供這些服務

And it's schizophrenic because in their hearts

說捐助者們精神分裂，是因為他們心裡知道

donors know that's not a realistic agenda,

這樣的計劃是不現實的

and so what they also do is the total bypass:

所以儘管這樣說，他們做的卻是繞道而行

just fund NGOs.

即資助非政府組織

Neither of those approaches is sensible.

這些方法其實都行不通

And so what I'd suggest

我的建議

is what I call Independent Service Authorities.

我把它叫做“獨立服務權威機構”。

It's to split the functions of a monopoly line ministry up into three.

這個機構把原來政府一把抓的職能分成三個部份

The planning function and policy function stays with the ministry;

規劃和制定政策的功能仍歸政府部門

the delivery of services on the ground,

而政策服務的實地執行

you should use whatever works --

要啓用任何可用的力量

churches, NGOs, local communities,

包括教堂，民間組織，當地社區等等

whatever works.

所有的力量

And in between, there should be a public agency,

而這中間，應該有一個公共機構

the Independent Service Authority,

也就是我說的“地理服務權威機構”

which channels public money,

負責將公眾的錢

and especially donor money,

特別是捐款

to the retail providers.

發放給各類服務的供應商

So the NGOs become part of a public government system,

這樣民間組織就變成了一個公共政府系統的一部分

rather than independent of it.

而不是獨立於政府之外的

One advantage of that is that you can allocate money coherently.

這樣做一個好處是可以系統的分配錢

Another is, you can make NGOs accountable.

另外還能使民間組織對自身的行為負責

You can use yardstick competition,

為此可以設立競爭的標準

so they have to compete against each other

這樣不同的民間組織可以相互競爭

for the resources.

來獲取資源

The good NGOs, like Oxfam, are very keen on this idea.

優秀的民間組織例如Oxfam，就會贊成這樣的做法

They want to have the discipline and accountability.

他們希望有紀律性和責任制

So that's a way to get basic services scaled up.

以上講的就是改善基礎服務的一個方法

And because the government would be funding it,

由於這個方法政府也要贊助

it would be co-branding these services.

因此可以給活動命名時加上自己的名字

So they wouldn't be provided thanks to

這樣活動就不是

the United States government and some NGO.

以美國政府和某個非政府組織的名義了

They would be co-branded

而是可以加上

as being done by the post-conflict government, in the country.

衝突後國家政府的名義

So, jobs, basic services, finally, clean government.

這樣，就業和基礎服務有了，最後還有了廉潔的政府。

Clean means follow their money.

“廉潔”指的是追蹤錢的去處。

The typical post-conflict government is so short of money

一般的衝突後政府都會極缺錢，

that it needs our money

甚至到了要靠我們的捐助

just to be on a life-support system.

來維持生命。

You can't get the basic functions of the state done

如果我們不給這些國家提供核心預算的錢，

unless we put money into the core budget of these countries.

他們的政府基本職能就沒法實現。

But, if we put money into the core budget,

但是如果我們投了錢進去，

we know that there aren't the budget systems with integrity

我們知道不會有可靠的預算體系

that mean that money will be well spent.

來保證錢用的到位。

And if all we do is put money in and close our eyes

所以如果我們只是捐錢，然後就甚麼都不管，

it's not just that the money is wasted --

那麼不只錢會被浪費

that's the least of the problems --

這個問題還是最其次的

it's that the money is captured.

問題是這些錢會被利用了

It's captured by the crooks who are at the heart of the political problem.

被那些侵蝕政府的蛀蟲給利用了

And so inadvertently we empower the people who are the problem.

而無意中，我們就成了這些蛀蟲的幫兇

So building clean government means, yes, provide money

所以要構建廉潔的政府，的確是要

to the budget,

提供資金來做預算

but also provide a lot of scrutiny,

但同時還要提供充分的監督

which means a lot of technical assistance that follows the money.

即提供了錢之後，還要提供大量的技術支持來追蹤錢的去向

Paddy Ashdown, who was the grand high nabob of Bosnia

帕迪 阿什唐，原聯合國

to the United Nations,

波斯尼亞最高代表

in his book about his experience, he said,

在他的書中說

"I realize what I needed

“我發現在得到錢之後，

was accountants without borders,

我需要的

to follow that money."

是無國界的會計師來監督那些錢。”

So that's the -- let me wrap up,

所以，這就是，總結起來，

this is the package.

就是一個計劃包。

What's the goal?

他的目標

If we follow this, what would we hope to achieve?

假如遵循這個計劃包，我們想達到甚麼目標？

That after 10 years,

目標就是經過十年

the focus on the construction sector

集中發展建築業

would have produced both jobs

會帶來工作機會

and, hence, security --

以及社會安定

because young people would have jobs --

因為年輕人都有了工作

and it would have reconstructed the infrastructure.

此外，還完成了基礎設施的重建

So that's the focus on the construction sector.

這既是集中發展建築業想要實現的目標

The focus on the basic service delivery

通過獨立的權威服務機構

through these independent service authorities

來集中提供基礎服務

would have rescued basic services

將拯救這些服務

from their catastrophic levels,

使得他們不在是災難的水平

and it would have given ordinary people

這個計劃包還會使老百姓

the sense that the government was doing something useful.

感覺到政府是做了實事的

The emphasis on clean government

對廉潔政府的強調

would have gradually squeezed out the political crooks,

會逐漸把政治蛀蟲清理掉

because there wouldn't be any money

因為從政

in taking part in the politics.

再沒錢好撈了

And so gradually the selection,

所以逐漸的選舉

the composition of politicians,

或政府人員的構成

would shift from the crooked to the honest.

會由腐敗變為誠實的

Where would that leave us?

這樣會帶來甚麼？

Gradually it would shift

會逐漸的使

from a politics of plunder

一個充滿掠奪的政治

to a politics of hope. Thank you.

轉向一個充滿希望的政治。謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）