Paul Collier's new rules for rebuilding a broken nation

Prevoditelj: Josip Maras Recezent: Ivan Voras

I'm going to talk about post-conflict recovery

Govoriti ću o oporavku nakon sukoba

and how we might do post-conflict recovery better.

i kako bi ga mogli poboljšati.

The record on post-conflict recovery is not very impressive.

Dosadašnji rezultati post-konfliktnog oporavka nisu baš impresivni.

40 percent of all post-conflict situations,

Kod 40% post-konfliktnih situacija,

historically, have reverted back to conflict within a decade.

ako gledamo kroz povijest, unutar desetljeća ponovno dođe do sukoba

In fact, they've accounted for half of all civil wars.

A ti sukobi čine više od polovice svih građanskih ratova.

Why has the record been so poor?

Zašto su rezultati tako slabi?

Well, the conventional approach

Pa, konvencionalni pristup

to post-conflict situations

kod post-konfliktnih situacija

has rested on, on kind of, three principles.

oslanja se na tri principa.

The first principle is: it's the politics that matters.

Prvi princip: politika je najbitnija.

So, the first thing that is prioritized is politics.

Najveći prioritet ima politika.

Try and build a political settlement first.

Prvo se nastoje izgraditi uvjeti za politiku.

And then the second step is to say,

Zatim u drugom koraku se prizna,

"The situation is admittedly dangerous, but only for a short time."

"Situacija je opasna, ali samo kratkoročno."

So get peacekeepers there, but get them home as soon as possible.

Pa se dovedu mirotvorci, ali s ciljem da ih se što prije vrati kući.

So, short-term peacekeepers.

Dakle, radi se o kratkoročnim mirotvorcima

And thirdly, what is the exit strategy for the peacekeepers?

I treće, koja je izlazna strategija za mirotvorce?

It's an election.

Izbori.

That will produce a legitimate and accountable government.

Izbori, koji će na vlast dovesti legitimnu i odgovornu vladu.

So that's the conventional approach.

To je konvencionalni pristup.

I think that approach denies reality.

Mislim da taj pristup nije u skladu sa stvarnošću.

We see that there is no quick fix.

Vidimo da nema brzog rješenja.

There's certainly no quick security fix.

A sigurno ne postoji brzo rješenje za problem sigurnosti.

I've tried to look at the risks of reversion to conflict,

Pokušao sam proučiti rizike ponovnog sukoba,

during our post-conflict decade.

unutar desteljeća nakon sukoba.

And the risks stay high throughout the decade.

I rizici ostaju visoki kroz cijelo desetljeće.

And they stay high regardless of the political innovations.

I ostaju visoki bez obzira na političke inovacije.

Does an election produce an accountable and legitimate government?

Da li izbori na vlast dovode odgovornu i legitimnu vladu?

What an election produces is a winner and a loser.

Nakon izbora dobivate pobjednika i gubitnika.

And the loser is unreconciled.

A gubitnik se ne miri sa situacijom.

The reality is that we need to reverse the sequence.

U stvarnosti trebamo obrnuti redoslijed.

It's not the politics first;

Nije politika na prvom mjestu;

it's actually the politics last.

već na zadnjem.

The politics become easier as the decade progresses

Politika postaje lakša kako tih deset godina prolaze

if you're building on a foundation

ukoliko gradite na temeljima

of security and economic development --

sigurnosti i ekonomskog razvoja.

the rebuilding of prosperity.

Ponovna izgradnja blagostanja.

Why does the politics get easier?

Zašto politika postaje jednostavnija?

And why is it so difficult initially?

I zašto je u početku tako složena?

Because after years of stagnation and decline,

Zbog toga što je nakon godina stagnacije i nazadovanja,

the mentality of politics is that it's a zero-sum game.

prevladavajući mentalitet da je politika igra nulte sume.

If the reality is stagnation,

Ukoliko je stvarnost stagnacija,

I can only go up if you go down.

ja mogu ići gore samo ako ti ideš dolje.

And that doesn't produce a productive politics.

A to ne dovodi do produktivne politike

And so the mentality has to shift from

Mentalitet se mora promijeniti iz

zero-sum to positive-sum

nulte-sume u pozitivnu sumu

before you can get a productive politics.

prije nego što dođe do produktivne politike.

You can only get positive, that mental shift,

A do pozitivnog mentalnog pomaka može doći

if the reality is that prosperity is being built.

samo ako u stvarnosti dolazi do povećanja blagostanja.

And in order to build prosperity, we need security in place.

A da bi izgradili blagostanje, nužno je prvo poboljšati sigurnost.

So that is what you get when you face reality.

To se dobije kada se suoči sa stvarnošću.

But the objective of facing reality

Ali cilj suočavanja sa stvarnošću

is to change reality.

je njeno mijenjanje.

And so now let me suggest

Molim vas dopustite mi da vam predložim

two complimentary approaches

dva komplementarna pristupa

to changing the reality of the situations.

mijenjanju stvarnosti situacije.

The first is to recognize the interdependence

Prvi je prepoznati međusobnu ovisnost

of three key actors, who are different actors,

tri glavna čimbenika, tri različita čimbenika

and at the moment are uncoordinated.

koji u ovom trenutku nisu koordinirani

The first actor is the Security Council.

Prvi čimbenik je Vijeće sigurnosti.

The Security Council typically has the responsibility

Vijeće sigurnosti obično ima odgovornost

for providing the peacekeepers

slanja mirotvoraca

who build the security.

koji poboljšavaju sigurnost.

And that needs to be recognized,

I nužno je da to prepoznamo,

first of all, that peacekeeping works.

kao prvo, da održavanje mira funkcionira.

It is a cost-effective approach.

To je ekonomičan pristup.

It does increase security.

I stvarno poboljšava sigurnost.

But it needs to be done long-term.

Ali nužno je da traje duži period vremena.

It needs to be a decade-long approach,

Mora trajati cijelo desetljeće,

rather than just a couple of years.

umjesto samo nekoliko godina.

That's one actor, the Security Council.

To je jedan čimbenik, vijeće sigurnosti.

The second actor, different cast of guys,

Drugi čimbenik, potpuno nezavisan od prvog čimbenika,

is the donors.

su donatori.

The donors provide post-conflict aid.

Donatori daju pomoć u razdoblju nakon sukoba.

Typically in the past,

Uobičajeno u prošlosti,

the donors have been interested in the first couple of years,

donori su zainteresirani prvih nekoliko godina,

and then they got bored.

a zatim im situacija dosadi.

They moved on to some other situation.

I prijeđu na neku drugu situaciju.

Post-conflict economic recovery

Ekonomski oporavak u razdoblju nakon sukoba

is a slow process.

je dugotrajan i spor proces.

There are no quick processes in economics

Ne postoje brzi procesi u ekonomiji

except decline.

osim propadanja.

You can do that quite fast.

To možete napraviti prilično brzo

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So the donors have to stick with this situation

Dakle, donori moraju ostati ustrajni u rješavanju situacije

for at least a decade.

barem kroz jedno desetljeće.

And then the third key actor

I treći ključan čimbenik

is the post-conflict government.

je post-konfliktna vlada.

And there are two key things it's got to do.

Dvije su ključne stvari koje ta vlada mora napraviti.

One is it's got to do economic reform,

Jedna je ekonomska reforma,

not fuss about the political constitution.

a ne se brinuti o političkom sastavu,

It's got to reform economic policy.

Mora reformirati ekonomsku politiku.

Why? Because during conflict

Zašto? Zbog toga što za vrijeme sukoba

economic policy typically deteriorates.

ekonomska politika obično nazaduje.

Governments snatch short-term opportunities

Vlade iskorištavaju kratkotrajne prilike.

and, by the end of the conflict, the chickens have come home to roost.

I do kraja sukoba, to dođe na naplatu.

So this legacy of conflict is really bad economic policy.

Dakle, nasljedstvo sukoba je loša ekonomska politika.

So there is a reform agenda, and there is an inclusion agenda.

Postoji plan reforme, ali i plan uključivanja.

The inclusion agenda doesn't come from elections.

Uključivanje ne dolazi iz izbora.

Elections produce a loser, who is then excluded.

Nakon izbora imamo gubitnika, koji je isključen iz situacije.

So the inclusion agenda means genuinely

Pa uključivanja znači iskrenu

bringing people inside the tent.

suradnju političkih faktora.

So those three actors.

Dakle, ta tri ključna čimbenika.

And they are interdependent

Tri međusobno povezana čimenika

over a long term.

u duljem vremenskom razdoblju.

If the Security Council doesn't commit to security

Ukoliko se Vijeće sigurnosti ne obveže na čuvanje sigurnosti

over the course of a decade,

u periodu od desetljeća

you don't get the reassurance which produces private investment.

tada ne dolazi do razine sigurnosti koja omogućava privatno ulaganje.

If you don't get the policy reform and the aid,

Ukoliko ne dođe do reforme politike i donacija

you don't get the economic recovery,

tada ne dolazi do ekonomskog oporavka,

which is the true exit strategy for the peacekeepers.

koji je jedina prava izlazna strategija za mirotvorce.

So we should recognize that interdependence,

Trebali bi priznati tu međusobnu ovisnost,

by formal, mutual commitments.

formalnim, zajedničkim ugovorima.

The United Nations actually has a language

UN ima jezik

for these mutual commitments, the recognition of mutual commitments;

za te takve dogovore, priznanje zajedničkih obaveza.

it's called the language of compact.

Zove se jezik ugovora.

And so we need a post-conflict compact.

Potreban nam je post-konfliktni ugovor.

The United Nations even has an agency which could broker these compacts;

UN čak ima i agenciju koja bi mogla posredovati pri tim ugovorima.

it's called the Peace Building Commission.

Zove se "Mirovna komisija".

It would be ideal to have a standard set of norms

Bilo bi idealno kada bi postojao standardni set normi

where, when we got to a post-conflict situation,

koje bi, kad dođe do post-konfliktnih situacija,

there was an expectation of these mutual commitments

dovele do toga da postoji određeno očekivanje od međusobnih ugovora

from the three parties.

triju čimbenika.

So that's idea one:

To je prva ideja.

recognize interdependence.

Prepoznati međusobnu ovisnost.

And now let me turn to the second approach, which is complimentary.

A sad ću govoriti o drugom pristupu, koji je komplementaran.

And that is to focus on a few critical objectives.

I koji se fokusira na nekoliko kritičnih ciljeva.

Typical post-conflict situation is a zoo

Uobičajeno, situacija nakon sukoba sliči na zoološki vrt

of different actors with different priorities.

različitih čimbenika s različitim prioritetima.

And indeed, unfortunately, if you navigate by needs

I, nažalost, ako ispunjavate sve potrebe

you get a very unfocused agenda,

dolazi do jako nefokusirane agende.

because in these situations, needs are everywhere,

Zbog toga što u ovakvim situacijama, svi imaju određene potrebe.

but the capacity to implement change is very limited.

Ali je kapacitet za provedbu promjena jako ograničen.

So we have to be disciplined and focus on things that are critical.

Zbog toga moramo biti disciplinirani i fokusirani na kritične stvari.

And I want to suggest that in the typical post-conflict situation

Tvrdim da su u post-konfliktnoj situaciji

three things are critical.

tri stvari kritične.

One is jobs.

Jedna su poslovi.

One is improvements in basic services --

Druga je poboljšanje osnovnih usluga.

especially health, which is a disaster during conflict.

Naročito zdravstva, koje je, nakon sukoba, obično u katastrofalnom stanju.

So jobs, health, and clean government.

Najvažnije stvari su: poslovi, zdravlje i "čista" vlada.

Those are the three critical priorities.

To su tri kritična prioriteta.

So I'm going to talk a little about each of them.

Govoriti ću malo o svakom.

Jobs.

Poslovi.

What is a distinctive approach

Koji je karakterističan pristup

to generating jobs in post-conflict situations?

stvaranju poslova u post-konfliktnim situacijama?

And why are jobs so important?

I zašto su poslovi tako bitni?

Jobs for whom? Especially jobs for young men.

Poslovi za koga? Naročito za mlade muškarce.

In post-conflict situations,

U post-konfliktnim situacijama,

the reason that they so often revert to conflict,

glavni razlog zašto tako često ponovno dođe do sukoba

is not because elderly women get upset.

nije zbog toga što se uznemire starije žene.

It's because young men get upset.

Već zbog toga što se uznemire mladi muškarci.

And why are they upset? Because they have nothing to do.

A zašto su uznemireni? Jer nemaju što raditi.

And so we need a process of generating jobs,

I zbog toga trebamo proces stvaranja poslova,

for ordinary young men, fast.

za obične mlade muškarce, i to brzo.

Now, that is difficult.

To je jako teško.

Governments in post-conflict situation

Vlade u post-konfliktnim situacijama

often respond by puffing up the civil service.

često reagiraju prevelikim zapošljavanjem u javnoj upravi.

That is not a good idea.

To nije dobra ideja.

It's not sustainable.

To nije održivo.

In fact, you're building a long-term liability

U stvarnosti, na taj način se stvara dugotrajan problem

by inflating civil service.

prekomjernim rastom javne uprave.

But getting the private sector to expand is also difficult,

Teško je postići rast privatnog sektora.

because any activity which is open to international trade

Zbog toga što bilo koja aktivnost koja je otvorena međunarodnoj trgovini

is basically going to be uncompetitive

u suštini nikad neće biti kompetitivna

in a post-conflict situation.

u post-konfliktnoj situaciji.

These are not environments where you can build export manufacturing.

To nisu okoline u kojima je moguće izgraditi izvozne industrije.

There's one sector which isn't exposed to international trade,

Ali postoji sektor koji nije izložen međunarodnoj trgovini,

and which can generate a lot of jobs,

a koji može stvoriti velik broj poslova.

and which is, in any case, a sensible sector

A koji je, u svakom slučaju, razuman izbor

to expand, post-conflict,

u post-konfliktnim situacijama.

and that is the construction sector.

Sektor graditeljstva.

The construction sector has a vital role,

Građevinski sektor ima izuzetno važnu ulogu,

obviously, in reconstruction.

očito je, u izgradnji.

But typically that sector has withered away during conflict.

Ali obično taj sektor nazaduje za vrijeme sukoba.

During conflict people are doing destruction.

Za vrijeme sukoba ljudi obično uništavaju.

There isn't any construction going on. And so the sector shrivels away.

Ne gradi se puno i zbog toga građevina propada.

And then when you try and expand it,

A kad ga pokušate proširiti,

because it's shriveled away,

zbog toga što je gotovo propao,

you encounter a lot of bottlenecks.

suočavate se s mnogo prepreka.

Basically, prices soar

Obično, cijene narastu

and crooked politicians then milk the rents from the sector,

a korumpirani političari potkradaju zaradu.

but it doesn't generate any jobs.

Ne dođe do stvaranje poslova.

And so the policy priority is to break the bottlenecks

Zbog toga prioritet treba biti rušenje prepreka

in expanding the construction sector.

jačanjem građevinskog sektora.

What might the bottlenecks be?

Koje su prepreke?

Just think what you have to do

Samo zamislite što sve morate napraviti da bi

successfully to build a structure, using a lot of labor.

uspješno izgradili građevinu, korištenjem velikog broja radnika.

First you need access to land.

Prvo, potreban je pristup zemlji.

Often the legal system is broken down

Često je zakonski sustav potpuno rastrojen

so you can't even get access to land.

i ne možete dobiti vlasništvo nad zemljom.

Secondly you need skills,

Kao drugo, potrebne su vještine,

the mundane skills of the construction sector.

vještine građevinskog sektora.

In post-conflict situations we don't just need Doctors Without Borders,

U post-konfliktnim situacijama, nisu nam samo potrebni doktori bez granica

we need Bricklayers Without Borders,

potrebni su nam postavljači opeka bez granica,

to rebuild the skill set.

da bi ponovno naučili graditelje osnovnim vještinama.

We need firms. The firms have gone away.

Potrebne su nam tvrtke, međutim većina ih je ili propala ili otišla iz zemlje.

So we need to encourage the growth of local firms.

Pa moramo poticati rast lokalnih tvrtki.

If we do that, we not only get the jobs,

Ako to uspijemo, ne samo da stvaramo poslove,

we get the improvements in public infrastructure,

već i poboljšavamo javnu infrastrukturu,

the restoration of public infrastructure.

obnavljamo javnu infrastrukturu.

Let me turn from jobs to the second objective,

Sada ću prijeći s poslova na drugi cilj,

which is improving basic social services.

poboljšanje osnovnih javnih usluga.

And to date, there has been a sort of a schizophrenia

I do danas, postojala je određena shizofrenija,

in the donor community,

u zajednici donatora,

as to how to build basic services

o načinu kako izgraditi osnovne javne usluge

in post-conflict sectors.

u post-konfliktnim sektorima.

On the one hand it pays lip service

Na jednu stranu propagiraju

to the idea of rebuild an effective state

ideju izgradnje učinkovite države

in the image of Scandinavia in the 1950s.

po uzoru na Skandinavske zemalje u 1950-im.

Lets develop line ministries of this, that, and the other,

Razvijmo ministarstva ovoga i onoga i institucije

that deliver these services.

koje će ispunjavati te usluge.

And it's schizophrenic because in their hearts

A to je shizofreno, jer

donors know that's not a realistic agenda,

donori znaju da to nije realistično.

and so what they also do is the total bypass:

Pa naprave potpuni zaobilazak.

just fund NGOs.

Doniraju sredstva nevladinim organizacijama.

Neither of those approaches is sensible.

Niti jedan od ovih pristupa nije razuman.

And so what I'd suggest

Pa ja predlažem

is what I call Independent Service Authorities.

osnivanje Nezavisnih uslužnih tijela.

It's to split the functions of a monopoly line ministry up into three.

Treba podijeliti funkcije ministarstava na tri dijela.

The planning function and policy function stays with the ministry;

Funkcija planiranja i politike ostaje pri ministarstvu.

the delivery of services on the ground,

A za samo ispunjavanje usluga

you should use whatever works --

trebaju se koristiti bilo koje institucije koje funkcioniraju

churches, NGOs, local communities,

crkve, nevladine organizacije, lokalne zajednice.

whatever works.

Što god funkcionira.

And in between, there should be a public agency,

A između, trebala bi postojati javna agencija,

the Independent Service Authority,

Nazavisno uslužno tijelo

which channels public money,

koje usmjerava javni novac,

and especially donor money,

i naročito donirani novac,

to the retail providers.

u davatelje usluga.

So the NGOs become part of a public government system,

Tako nevladine organizacije postaju dio javnog vladinog sustava,

rather than independent of it.

tj. nisu nezavisne od vlade.

One advantage of that is that you can allocate money coherently.

Jedna od prednosti je mogućnost usklađene raspodjele novca.

Another is, you can make NGOs accountable.

A druga je, nevladine udruge postaju odgovorne.

You can use yardstick competition,

Koristi se obična konkurencija.

so they have to compete against each other

Moraju se međusobno natjecati

for the resources.

za resurse.

The good NGOs, like Oxfam, are very keen on this idea.

Dobre nevladine organizacije, kao npr Oxfam, su jako zainteresirane za ovu ideju.

They want to have the discipline and accountability.

Žele imati disciplinu i odgovornost.

So that's a way to get basic services scaled up.

To je način kako poboljšati osnovne usluge.

And because the government would be funding it,

I zbog toga što vlada osigurava sredstva,

it would be co-branding these services.

vlada bi oblikovala te usluge i dobivala određene zasluge.

So they wouldn't be provided thanks to

Tako da sve zasluge ne bi pripale

the United States government and some NGO.

vladi SAD-a i nekoj nevladinoj organizaciji.

They would be co-branded

Već bi zasluge dijelom pripale

as being done by the post-conflict government, in the country.

i post-konfliktnoj vladi.

So, jobs, basic services, finally, clean government.

Znači: poslovi, osnovne usluge i konačno čista vlada.

Clean means follow their money.

Čista vlada znači transparentno upravljanje novcem.

The typical post-conflict government is so short of money

Obično, post-konfliktnoj vladi kronično nedostaje novac

that it needs our money

toliko da joj je potreban naš novac

just to be on a life-support system.

samo da se održi.

You can't get the basic functions of the state done

Nije moguće pokrenuti osnovne funkcije države

unless we put money into the core budget of these countries.

ukoliko ne damo novac direktno u proračun tih zemalja.

But, if we put money into the core budget,

Ali ako damo novac u proračun,

we know that there aren't the budget systems with integrity

znamo da to nisu sredstva s integritetom,

that mean that money will be well spent.

koji znači da će naš novac biti dobro potrošen.

And if all we do is put money in and close our eyes

A ako samo damo novac i zatvorimo oči

it's not just that the money is wasted --

ne znači samo da je naš novac bačen,

that's the least of the problems --

to je najmanji problem,

it's that the money is captured.

nego da je novac ukraden.

It's captured by the crooks who are at the heart of the political problem.

Ukraden od lopova koji su središte političkog problema.

And so inadvertently we empower the people who are the problem.

I na taj način nenamjerno potičemo ljude koji su problem.

So building clean government means, yes, provide money

Pa gradnja čiste vlade zahtjeva davanje novca direktno

to the budget,

u proračun.

but also provide a lot of scrutiny,

Ali nužno je ugraditi mehanizme nadzora.

which means a lot of technical assistance that follows the money.

Što znači poprilično tehničke podrške koja prati novac.

Paddy Ashdown, who was the grand high nabob of Bosnia

Paddy Ashdown, koji je bio visoki predstavnik međunarodne zajednice u Bosni

to the United Nations,

pri UN-u,

in his book about his experience, he said,

u svojoj knjizi, kaže

"I realize what I needed

"Shvaćam da su mi bili potrebni

was accountants without borders,

računovođe bez granica,

to follow that money."

koji bi pratili taj novac."

So that's the -- let me wrap up,

I to je - da zaključim,

this is the package.

to je paket.

What's the goal?

Koji je cilj?

If we follow this, what would we hope to achieve?

Ukoliko slijedimo ove upute, čemu se možemo nadati?

That after 10 years,

Da nakon 10 godina,

the focus on the construction sector

fokusiranje na građevinski sektor

would have produced both jobs

bi proizvelo i poslove

and, hence, security --

pa tako i sigurnost.

because young people would have jobs --

Zbog toga što bi mladi ljudi imali posao.

and it would have reconstructed the infrastructure.

I rekonstruirali bi infrastrukturu.

So that's the focus on the construction sector.

To je fokus građevinskog sektora.

The focus on the basic service delivery

Fokus na pružanje osnovnih usluga

through these independent service authorities

kroz nezavisna uslužna tijela

would have rescued basic services

bi spasio osnovne usluge

from their catastrophic levels,

od katastrofe.

and it would have given ordinary people

I dao bi osjećaj običnim ljudima

the sense that the government was doing something useful.

da vlada radi nešto korisno.

The emphasis on clean government

Naglasak na čistu vladu

would have gradually squeezed out the political crooks,

bi polako iskorijenio političke lopove.

because there wouldn't be any money

Zbog toga što ne bi bilo novca

in taking part in the politics.

u bavljenju politikom.

And so gradually the selection,

I postupno kroz selekciju,

the composition of politicians,

sastav političara,

would shift from the crooked to the honest.

bi se promijenio od lopova do poštenih.

Where would that leave us?

I gdje bi se onda našli?

Gradually it would shift

Politika bi se postupno mijenjala

from a politics of plunder

od politike pljačke

to a politics of hope. Thank you.

do politike nade. Hvala

(Applause)

(Pljesak)