Juan Enriquez: Will our kids be a different species?

202,944 views ・ 2012-06-04

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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Prevodilac: Radica Stojanović Lektor: Ivana Korom
00:15
All right. So, like all good stories,
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U redu. Kao sve dobre priče
00:17
this starts a long, long time ago
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i ova počinje jako, jako davno
00:19
when there was basically nothing.
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kada praktično nije bilo ničega.
00:21
So here is a complete picture of the universe
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Evo dakle kompletne slike svemira
00:24
about 14-odd billion years ago.
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pre otprilike 14 milijardi godina.
00:27
All energy is concentrated into a single point of energy.
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Sva energija je skoncentrisana u jednoj tački.
00:30
For some reason it explodes,
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Iz nekog razloga ona eksplodira
00:32
and you begin to get these things.
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i počinjete da dobijate ove stvari.
00:34
So you're now about 14 billion years into this.
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Tako ste sada već 14 milijardi godina u ovome.
00:37
And these things expand and expand and expand
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I te stvari se šire i šire i šire
00:39
into these giant galaxies,
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u ove ogromne galaksije,
00:40
and you get trillions of them.
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i dobijate bilione njih.
00:42
And within these galaxies
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I u tim galaksijama
00:44
you get these enormous dust clouds.
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imate ove ogromne oblake prašne.
00:46
And I want you to pay particular attention
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I želim da obratite posebnu pažnju
00:48
to the three little prongs
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na tri mala kraka
00:49
in the center of this picture.
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u cenrtu slike.
00:51
If you take a close-up of those,
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Ako ih pažljivo pogledate,
00:52
they look like this.
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izgledaju ovako.
00:54
And what you're looking at is columns of dust
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I to što vidite su stubovi prašine
00:57
where there's so much dust --
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u kojima ima toliko prašine -
00:59
by the way, the scale of this is a trillion vertical miles --
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inače, ova skala ima bilion vertikalnih milja -
01:03
and what's happening is there's so much dust,
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i tu je toliko prašine,
01:06
it comes together and it fuses
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da se ona spaja
01:08
and ignites a thermonuclear reaction.
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i usijava do termonuklearne reakcije.
01:12
And so what you're watching
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I ono što gledate
01:13
is the birth of stars.
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jeste rođenje zvezda.
01:14
These are stars being born out of here.
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Ovo su zvezde koje su rođene tamo.
01:16
When enough stars come out,
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Kada nastane dovoljan broj zvezda,
01:19
they create a galaxy.
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one stvaraju galaksiju.
01:20
This one happens to be a particularly important galaxy,
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Ova ovde je jedna posebno značajna galaksija,
01:24
because you are here.
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jer je naša.
01:26
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:27
And as you take a close-up of this galaxy,
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I ako pažljivo pogledate ovu galaksiju,
01:29
you find a relatively normal,
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naći ćete prilično uobičajenu,
01:31
not particularly interesting star.
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ne posebno interesantnu zvezdu.
01:33
By the way, you're now about two-thirds of the way into this story.
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Inače, sada ste na dve trećine puta u ovoj priči.
01:37
So this star doesn't even appear
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Znači ova zvezda se ne pojavljuje
01:40
until about two-thirds of the way into this story.
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do otprilike dve trećine ove priče.
01:42
And then what happens
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I potom se dešava to
01:44
is there's enough dust left over
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da je preostalo dovoljno prašine
01:45
that it doesn't ignite into a star,
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da se ona ne usija do zvezde,
01:47
it becomes a planet.
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već postaje planeta.
01:49
And this is about a little over four billion years ago.
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To se dešava pre nešto više od četiri milijarde godina.
01:54
And soon thereafter
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I ubrzo nakon toga
01:55
there's enough material left over
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postoji dovoljno materijala
01:57
that you get a primordial soup,
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da se formira praiskonska supa
02:02
and that creates life.
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i nastaje život.
02:03
And life starts to expand and expand and expand,
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I život počinje da se širi i širi,
02:07
until it goes kaput.
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dok ne ode bestraga.
02:09
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:13
Now the really strange thing
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E sad, vrlo čudna stvar
02:14
is life goes kaput, not once, not twice,
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jeste da je život otišao bestraga, ne jednom, ne dva puta,
02:17
but five times.
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već pet puta.
02:19
So almost all life on Earth
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Tako je život na Zemlji
02:21
is wiped out about five times.
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pet puta u potpunosti zbrisan.
02:24
And as you're thinking about that,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
02:25
what happens is you get more and more complexity,
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dobijate sve veću i veću složenost,
02:28
more and more stuff
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više i više stvari
02:29
to build new things with.
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kojima pravite nove stvari.
02:33
And we don't appear
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I mi se ne pojavljujemo
02:34
until about 99.96 percent of the time into this story,
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do otprilike 99,96 procenata ove priče,
02:40
just to put ourselves and our ancestors in perspective.
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taman toliko da uporedimo nas i naše pretke sa pričom.
02:44
So within that context, there's two theories of the case
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I u tom kontekstu, postoje dve teorije
02:47
as to why we're all here.
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o tome zašto smo mi svi ovde.
02:49
The first theory of the case
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Prva teorija
02:51
is that's all she wrote.
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jeste da je to to.
02:54
Under that theory,
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Prema toj teoriji,
02:55
we are the be-all and end-all
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mi smo sve što jeste i kraj svega
02:57
of all creation.
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što postoji.
02:59
And the reason for trillions of galaxies,
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I razlog biliona galaksija,
03:02
sextillions of planets,
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triliona planeta,
03:04
is to create something that looks like that
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jeste da bi stvorili nešto što izgleda ovako
03:09
and something that looks like that.
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i nešto što izgleda ovako.
03:12
And that's the purpose of the universe;
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I to je svrha univerzuma;
03:14
and then it flat-lines,
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i kada dođe do kraja,
03:15
it doesn't get any better.
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neće postati ništa bolje.
03:16
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:21
The only question you might want to ask yourself is,
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Jedino pitanje koje možete sebi postaviti je,
03:24
could that be just mildly arrogant?
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da to nije možda malo arogantno?
03:29
And if it is --
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I ako jeste --
03:31
and particularly given the fact that we came very close to extinction.
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posebno jer znamo da smo došli jako blizu istrebljenju.
03:36
There were only about 2,000 of our species left.
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Bilo je svega oko 2000 vrsta preostalo.
03:39
A few more weeks without rain,
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Još par nedelja bez kiše,
03:41
we would have never seen any of these.
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i nikada ne bismo videli nikog od ovih.
03:44
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:51
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
03:56
So maybe you have to think about a second theory
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Tako bi možda trebalo da razmotrite drugu teoriju
03:59
if the first one isn't good enough.
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ako prva nije dovoljno dobra.
04:02
Second theory is: Could we upgrade?
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Druga teorija je: možemo li se poboljšati?
04:03
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:06
Well, why would one ask a question like that?
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Zašto bi neko postavio takvo pitanje?
04:10
Because there have been at least 29 upgrades so far
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Jer do sada je bilo najmanje 29 poboljšanja
04:12
of humanoids.
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humanoida.
04:14
So it turns out that we have upgraded.
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Ispostavlja se da se jesmo poboljšali.
04:17
We've upgraded time and again and again.
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Poboljšavamo se iznova i iznova.
04:19
And it turns out that we keep discovering upgrades.
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I ispostavlja se da nastavljamo sa otkrivanjem mogućih poboljšanja.
04:22
We found this one last year.
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Pronašli smo ovu prošle godine.
04:24
We found another one last month.
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Pronašli smo drugu prošlog meseca.
04:27
And as you're thinking about this,
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I dok razlišljate o ovome,
04:29
you might also ask the question:
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možete postaviti pitanje:
04:31
So why a single human species?
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zašto postoji jedna ljudska vrsta?
04:34
Wouldn't it be really odd
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Zar ne bi bilo čudno
04:36
if you went to Africa and Asia and Antarctica
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kad bi otišli do Afrike, Azije ili Antarktika
04:40
and found exactly the same bird --
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i pronašli identičnu pticu --
04:42
particularly given that we co-existed at the same time
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posebno jer znamo da smo postojali uporedo
04:46
with at least eight other versions of humanoid
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sa još najmanje osam različitih vrsta humanoida
04:49
at the same time on this planet?
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u isto vreme na ovoj planeti?
04:51
So the normal state of affairs
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Normalno stanje stvari
04:53
is not to have just a Homo sapiens;
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nije da imamo samo Homo sapiensa;
04:56
the normal state of affairs
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normalno stanje stvari je
04:57
is to have various versions of humans walking around.
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da imamo različite varijante humanoida naokolo.
05:01
And if that is the normal state of affairs,
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I ako je to normalno stanje stvari,
05:03
then you might ask yourself,
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možete se zapitati,
05:06
all right, so if we want to create something else,
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u redu, ako želimo da stvorimo nešto drugo,
05:08
how big does a mutation have to be?
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koliko velika bi mutacija morala da bude?
05:11
Well Svante Paabo has the answer.
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Pa Svante Pabo ima odgovor.
05:13
The difference between humans and Neanderthal
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Razlika između ljudi i Neandertalaca
05:16
is 0.004 percent of gene code.
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je 0,004 procenta genetskog koda.
05:19
That's how big the difference is
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Toliko je velika razlika
05:21
one species to another.
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između dve vrste.
05:23
This explains most contemporary political debates.
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Ovo objašnjava najskorije političke debate.
05:28
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:30
But as you're thinking about this,
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Ali dok razmišljate o ovome,
05:33
one of the interesting things
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jedna od zanimljivih stvari
05:34
is how small these mutations are and where they take place.
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je koliko su te mutacije male i gde se dešavaju.
05:38
Difference human/Neanderthal
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Razlika između ljudi i Neandertalaca
05:39
is sperm and testis,
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je u spermi i testisima,
05:41
smell and skin.
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mirisu i koži.
05:42
And those are the specific genes
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A to su specifični geni
05:44
that differ from one to the other.
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koji se međusobno razlikuju.
05:46
So very small changes can have a big impact.
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Tako da veoma male promene dovode do velikih posledica.
05:49
And as you're thinking about this,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
05:51
we're continuing to mutate.
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mi nastavljamo da mutiramo.
05:53
So about 10,000 years ago by the Black Sea,
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Pre 10 000 godina pored Crnog Mora,
05:56
we had one mutation in one gene
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desila se mutacija u jednom genu
05:58
which led to blue eyes.
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koja je dovela do plavih očiju.
06:01
And this is continuing and continuing and continuing.
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I to nastavlja da se dešava.
06:05
And as it continues,
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I dok se to nastavlja,
06:06
one of the things that's going to happen this year
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jedna od stvari koja će se desiti ove godine
06:08
is we're going to discover the first 10,000 human genomes,
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je to da ćemo otkriti prvih 10 000 ljudskih genoma,
06:11
because it's gotten cheap enough to do the gene sequencing.
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jer je sekvencioniranje gena postalo dovoljno jeftino.
06:15
And when we find these,
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A kada to otkrijemo,
06:16
we may find differences.
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moći ćemo da pronađemo razlike.
06:19
And by the way, this is not a debate that we're ready for,
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I inače, ovo nije debata za koju smo još spremni,
06:22
because we have really misused the science in this.
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jer smo zloupotrebili nauku za ovo.
06:25
In the 1920s, we thought there were major differences between people.
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1920. smatrali smo da postoje ogromne razlike među ljudima.
06:29
That was partly based on Francis Galton's work.
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To je delom bila posledica rada Frensisa Galtona.
06:33
He was Darwin's cousin.
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On je bio Darvinov rođak.
06:35
But the U.S., the Carnegie Institute,
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Ali SAD, Karnegi Institut,
06:37
Stanford, American Neurological Association
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Stanford, Američka neurološka asocijacija
06:40
took this really far.
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otišli su u ovome jako daleko.
06:42
That got exported and was really misused.
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Ideja je izvezena i veoma zloupotrebljena.
06:45
In fact, it led to some absolutely horrendous
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Zapravo, dovela je do nekih potpuno užasnih
06:48
treatment of human beings.
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ophođenja prema ljudskim bićima.
06:50
So since the 1940s, we've been saying there are no differences,
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I od 1940. tvrdimo da ne postoje razlike,
06:52
we're all identical.
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da smo svi identični.
06:54
We're going to know at year end if that is true.
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Do kraja godine znaćemo da li je to tačno.
06:57
And as we think about that,
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I kako razmišljamo o tome,
06:59
we're actually beginning to find things
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počinjemo da nalazimo stvari
07:00
like, do you have an ACE gene?
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kao, da li imate ACE gen?
07:04
Why would that matter?
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Zašto bi to bilo važno?
07:06
Because nobody's ever climbed an 8,000-meter peak without oxygen
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Jer niko ne može da se popne na visinu od 8 000 metara bez kiseonika
07:10
that doesn't have an ACE gene.
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ukoliko nema ACE gen.
07:13
And if you want to get more specific,
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I ako želite da budete još precizniji,
07:14
how about a 577R genotype?
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šta je sa 577R genotipom?
07:17
Well it turns out that every male Olympic power athelete ever tested
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Ispostavilo se da svaki muški olimpijski atletičar koji je ikada testiran
07:22
carries at least one of these variants.
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ima bar jednu od ovih varijanti.
07:25
If that is true,
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Ako je to tačno,
07:27
it leads to some very complicated questions
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to vodi do nekih veoma komplikovanih pitanja
07:29
for the London Olympics.
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za londonsku Olimpijadu.
07:31
Three options:
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Tri mogućnosti:
07:32
Do you want the Olympics to be a showcase
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želite li da Olimpijada bude izložba
07:35
for really hardworking mutants?
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izuzetno vrednih mutanata?
07:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:40
Option number two:
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Mogućnost broj dva:
07:42
Why don't we play it like golf or sailing?
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zašto se ne bi takmičili kao u golfu ili jedrenju?
07:46
Because you have one and you don't have one,
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Zato što ga ti imaš, a ti ga nemaš,
07:48
I'll give you a tenth of a second head start.
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daću ti prednost od desetine sekunde na startu.
07:52
Version number three:
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Mogućnost broj tri:
07:53
Because this is a naturally occurring gene
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zato što je to gen koji se javlja prirodno,
07:55
and you've got it and you didn't pick the right parents,
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ti ga imaš, a ti si izabrao pogrešne roditelje,
07:58
you get the right to upgrade.
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ti imaš pravo da se poboljšaš.
08:02
Three different options.
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Tri različite mogućnosti.
08:04
If these differences are the difference
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Ukoliko su te razlike zapravo razlike
08:06
between an Olympic medal and a non-Olympic medal.
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između osvajača olimpijskih medalja i onih koji to nisu.
08:09
And it turns out that as we discover these things,
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I ispostavlja se da, kako otkrivamo ove stvari,
08:12
we human beings really like to change
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mi ljudi zaista uživamo da menjamo
08:15
how we look, how we act,
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način na koji izgledamo, kako se ponašamo,
08:17
what our bodies do.
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šta naša tela mogu da urade.
08:18
And we had about 10.2 million plastic surgeries in the United States,
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Imali smo oko 10,2 miliona plastičnih operacija u Americi,
08:23
except that with the technologies that are coming online today,
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ne računajući one sa tehnologijama koje se pojavljuju danas,
08:26
today's corrections, deletions,
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današnje korekcije, brisanja,
08:29
augmentations and enhancements
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uvećanja i poboljšanja
08:31
are going to seem like child's play.
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činiće se kao dečja igra.
08:34
You already saw the work by Tony Atala on TED,
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Već ste na TED-u videli rad Tonija Atale,
08:37
but this ability to start filling
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ali ova sposobnost za punjenje
08:41
things like inkjet cartridges with cells
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stvari poput kertridža za mastilo ćelijama
08:44
are allowing us to print skin, organs
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omogućava nam da štampamo kožu, organe
08:49
and a whole series of other body parts.
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i čitav niz drugih delova tela.
08:51
And as these technologies go forward,
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I kako se ove tehnologije razvijaju,
08:53
you keep seeing this, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing things --
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vi nastavljate da viđate ovo i ovo, nastavljate da viđate stvari --
08:57
2000, human genome sequence --
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2000, ljudska genetska sekvenca --
09:00
and it seems like nothing's happening,
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i čini se kao da se ništa ne dešava,
09:04
until it does.
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dok se ne desi.
09:07
And we may just be in some of these weeks.
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I možda smo upravo u jednoj od tih sedmica.
09:10
And as you're thinking about
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I dok razmišljate o
09:12
these two guys sequencing a human genome in 2000
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ovoj dvojici koji sekvencioniraju ljudski genom 2000.
09:15
and the Public Project sequencing the human genome in 2000,
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i o javnom projektu sekvencioniranja ljudskog genoma 2000.,
09:19
then you don't hear a lot,
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onda niste čuli mnogo,
09:22
until you hear about an experiment last year in China,
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dok ne saznate za prošlogodišnji eksperiment u Kini,
09:26
where they take skin cells from this mouse,
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gde uzimaju ćelije kože ovog miša,
09:30
put four chemicals on it,
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dodaju četiri hemikalije,
09:32
turn those skin cells into stem cells,
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pretvore ih u matične ćelije,
09:35
let the stem cells grow
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puste ih da rastu
09:37
and create a full copy of that mouse.
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i stvore potpunu kopiju prvobitnog miša.
09:40
That's a big deal.
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To je velika stvar.
09:43
Because in essence
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Jer u suštini
09:44
what it means is you can take a cell,
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to znači da možete uzeti ćeliju,
09:46
which is a pluripotent stem cell,
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koja je u suštini pluripotentna matična ćelija,
09:48
which is like a skier at the top of a mountain,
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koja je poput skijaša na vrhu planine,
09:51
and those two skiers become two pluripotent stem cells,
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i ova dva skijaša postaju dve pluripotentne matične ćelije,
09:55
four, eight, 16,
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četiri, osam, 16,
09:57
and then it gets so crowded
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i potom nastane takva gužva
09:58
after 16 divisions
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da posle 16 deljenja
10:00
that those cells have to differentiate.
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moraju da se diferenciraju.
10:03
So they go down one side of the mountain,
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I tako idu niz jednu stranu planine,
10:04
they go down another.
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i niz drugu.
10:05
And as they pick that,
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I kada to odaberu,
10:07
these become bone,
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ove postaju kosti,
10:09
and then they pick another road and these become platelets,
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onda odaberu drugi put i postaju trombociti,
10:12
and these become macrophages,
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onda ove postaju makrofage,
10:14
and these become T cells.
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i od ovih nastaju T ćelije.
10:15
But it's really hard, once you ski down,
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1952
Ali veoma je teško, kada se jednom spustite,
10:17
to get back up.
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da se ponovo vratite gore.
10:19
Unless, of course, if you have a ski lift.
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Osim, naravno, ako imate žičaru.
10:24
And what those four chemicals do
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I ono što ova četiri elementa rade
10:27
is they take any cell
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jeste da uzimaju bilo koju ćeliju
10:29
and take it way back up the mountain
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1932
i vraćaju je na vrh planine
10:31
so it can become any body part.
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tako da ona može postati bilo koji deo tela.
10:33
And as you think of that,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
10:35
what it means is potentially
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1980
to može značiti
10:37
you can rebuild a full copy
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da možete rekonstruisati čitavu kopiju
10:39
of any organism
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bilo kog organizma
10:41
out of any one of its cells.
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od bilo koje njegove ćelije.
10:43
That turns out to be a big deal
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To se ispostavilo da je velika stvar
10:46
because now you can take, not just mouse cells,
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jer sada možete uzeti, ne samo ćeliju miša,
10:48
but you can human skin cells
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već ćeliju ljudske kože
10:51
and turn them into human stem cells.
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i pretvoriti je u ljudsku matičnu ćeliju.
10:54
And then what they did in October
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Ono što su uradili u oktobru
10:57
is they took skin cells, turned them into stem cells
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jeste da su uzeli ćeliju kože, pretvorili je u matičnu ćeliju
11:01
and began to turn them into liver cells.
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i počeli da ih pretvaraju u ćelije jetre.
11:05
So in theory,
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Tako u teoriji,
11:06
you could grow any organ from any one of your cells.
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možete uzgajiti bilo koji organ od bilo koje vaše ćelije.
11:11
Here's a second experiment:
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Evo drugog eksperimenta:
11:12
If you could photocopy your body,
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kada biste fotokopirali vaše telo,
11:16
maybe you also want to take your mind.
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možda biste takođe želeli da uzmete i svoju svest.
11:19
And one of the things you saw at TED
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Jedna od stvari koju ste videli na TED-u
11:20
about a year and a half ago
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pre otprilike godinu ipo dana
11:21
was this guy.
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je ovaj momak.
11:23
And he gave a wonderful technical talk.
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I on je imao predivan tehnički govor.
11:26
He's a professor at MIT.
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On je profesor na MIT-u.
11:27
But in essence what he said
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Ali suština onoga što je on rekao
11:29
is you can take retroviruses,
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je da možete uzeti retroviruse,
11:31
which get inside brain cells of mice.
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koji se ubace u moždane ćelije miša.
11:34
You can tag them with proteins
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Možete ih označiti proteinima
11:36
that light up when you light them.
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koji zasvetle kada ih upalite.
11:38
And you can map the exact pathways
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I možete mapirati tačne puteve
11:42
when a mouse sees, feels, touches,
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kada miš vidi, oseća, dodiruje,
11:45
remembers, loves.
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pamti, voli,
11:47
And then you can take a fiber optic cable
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I potom možete uzeti kabl sa optičkim vlaknima
11:50
and light up some of the same things.
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i upaliti neke od njih.
11:54
And by the way, as you do this,
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I uzgred, kako to radite,
11:55
you can image it in two colors,
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možete označiti sa dve boje,
11:57
which means you can download this information
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što znači da možete preuzeti tu informaciju
12:00
as binary code directly into a computer.
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u vidu binarnog koda direktno u vaš računar.
12:05
So what's the bottom line on that?
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I šta je konačna svrha toga?
12:07
Well it's not completely inconceivable
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2200
Pa, nije potpuno nezamislivo
12:09
that someday you'll be able to download your own memories,
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da ćete jednoga dana biti u mogućnosti da preuzimate sopstvene uspomene,
12:14
maybe into a new body.
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možda u novo telo.
12:16
And maybe you can upload other people's memories as well.
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A možda ćete takođe moći i da učitate uspomene drugih ljudi.
12:21
And this might have just one or two
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I ovo bi moglo da ima samo jednu ili dve
12:24
small ethical, political, moral implications.
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male etičke, političke, moralne posledice.
12:27
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:29
Just a thought.
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To je samo ideja.
12:32
Here's the kind of questions
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Evo pitanja
12:33
that are becoming interesting questions
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1980
koja postaju interesantna
12:35
for philosophers, for governing people,
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2484
filozofima, ljudima na vlasti,
12:38
for economists, for scientists.
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ekonomistima, naučnicima.
12:41
Because these technologies are moving really quickly.
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Jer se ove tehnologije razvijaju jako brzo.
12:44
And as you think about it,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
12:46
let me close with an example of the brain.
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završiću sa primerom o mozgu.
12:49
The first place where you would expect
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Prvo mesto na kom biste očekivali
12:51
to see enormous evolutionary pressure today,
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da vidite ogromni evolutivni pritisak danas,
12:54
both because of the inputs,
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zbog velike količine
12:56
which are becoming massive,
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1552
ulaznih informacija,
12:58
and because of the plasticity of the organ,
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i zbog plastičnosti samog organa s druge strane,
12:59
is the brain.
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jeste mozak.
13:02
Do we have any evidence that that is happening?
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Imamo li ikakav dokaz da se to dešava?
13:05
Well let's take a look at something like autism incidence per thousand.
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Pogledajmo pojavu autizma na 1000 ljudi.
13:10
Here's what it looks like in 2000.
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Evo kako je to izgledalo 2000.
13:12
Here's what it looks like in 2002,
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2082
Evo kako je izgledalo 2002.,
13:15
2006, 2008.
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2006., 2008.
13:19
Here's the increase in less than a decade.
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Vidimo povećanje za manje od decenije.
13:23
And we still don't know why this is happening.
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Ali i dalje ne znamo zašto se to dešava.
13:28
What we do know is, potentially,
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Ono što znamo jeste da, verovatno,
13:30
the brain is reacting in
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2032
mozak reaguje
13:32
a hyperactive, hyper-plastic way,
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2134
na hiperaktivan, hiper-plastičan način
13:34
and creating individuals that are like this.
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i stvara pojedince koji su poput ovoga.
13:37
And this is only one of the conditions that's out there.
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I ovo je samo jedan od uslova koji su tamo negde.
13:40
You've also got people with who are extraordinarily smart,
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Imate takođe i ljude koji su natprosečno pametni,
13:44
people who can remember everything they've seen in their lives,
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ljude koji se mogu setiti svega što su videli u svom životu,
13:46
people who've got synesthesia,
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ljude koji imaju sinesteziju,
13:47
people who've got schizophrenia.
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ljude koji imaju šizofreniju.
13:49
You've got all kinds of stuff going on out there,
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Svakakve stvari se dešavaju tamo,
13:51
and we still don't understand
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a mi i dalje ne razumemo
13:52
how and why this is happening.
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kako i zašto se dešavaju.
13:55
But one question you might want to ask is,
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Ali možete se zapitati
13:57
are we seeing a rapid evolution of the brain
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da li mi to vidimo ubrzanu evoluciju mozga
14:00
and of how we process data?
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i toga kako obrađujemo podatke?
14:02
Because when you think of how much data's coming into our brains,
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Jer kad pomislite koliko podataka dolazi u naš mozak,
14:05
we're trying to take in as much data in a day
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pokušavamo da primimo toliko podataka na dan
14:08
as people used to take in in a lifetime.
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koliko su ljudi primali za ceo život.
14:11
And as you're thinking about this,
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I dok razmišljate o ovome,
14:14
there's four theories as to why this might be going on,
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postoje četiri teorije zbog čega se to dešava,
14:16
plus a whole series of others.
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1327
plus čitava serija drugih.
14:17
I don't have a good answer.
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Nemam dobar odgovor.
14:19
There really needs to be more research on this.
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Zaista bi moralo da postoji još istraživanja o ovome.
14:22
One option is the fast food fetish.
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Jedna opcija je strast ka brzoj hrani.
14:25
There's beginning to be some evidence
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2449
Počinjemo da dobijamo neke podatke
14:27
that obesity and diet
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da gojaznost i dijeta
14:29
have something to do
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imaju neke veze
14:31
with gene modifications,
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1768
sa modifikacijom gena,
14:33
which may or may not have an impact
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2350
koji mogu ili ne moraju imati uticaj
14:35
on how the brain of an infant works.
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na to kako mozak novorođenčeta radi.
14:39
A second option is the sexy geek option.
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Druga opcija je opcija seksi štrebera.
14:43
These conditions are highly rare.
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Ovi uslovi su izuzetno retki.
14:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:50
(Applause)
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5300
(Aplauz)
14:55
But what's beginning to happen
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1633
Ali ono što počinje da se dešava
14:57
is because these geeks are all getting together,
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2534
jeste da se ovi štreberi približavaju jedni drugima,
14:59
because they are highly qualified for computer programming
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2897
jer su visoko kvalifikovani za kompjutersko programiranje
15:02
and it is highly remunerated,
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2318
što je veoma isplativo,
15:05
as well as other very detail-oriented tasks,
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3150
kao i drugi poslovi koji su orjentisani na detalje,
15:08
that they are concentrating geographically
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2449
i koncentrišu se geografski
15:10
and finding like-minded mates.
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2967
i pronalaze slične partnere.
15:13
So this is the assortative mating hypothesis
347
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3568
Ovo je hipoteza udruživanja sličnih
15:17
of these genes reinforcing one another
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2700
prema kojoj geni podržavaju jedni druge
15:19
in these structures.
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2117
u ovim strukturama.
15:22
The third, is this too much information?
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Treće, da li je ovo previše informacija?
15:24
We're trying to process so much stuff
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1497
Pokušavamo da obradimo toliko stvari
15:26
that some people get synesthetic
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2352
da neki ljudi dobijaju sinesteziju
15:28
and just have huge pipes that remember everything.
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2600
i imaju ogromne cevi kako bi zapamtili sve.
15:31
Other people get hyper-sensitive to the amount of information.
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2669
Drugi ljudi postaju preosetljivi na toliku količinu informacija.
15:34
Other people react with various psychological conditions
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3982
Drugi ljudi reaguju različitim psihološkim stanjima
15:38
or reactions to this information.
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ili reakcijama na ove informacije.
15:39
Or maybe it's chemicals.
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2702
Ili je to možda hemijski.
15:42
But when you see an increase
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1765
Ali kada vidite uvećanje
15:44
of that order of magnitude in a condition,
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2351
te veličine kod nekih stanja
15:46
either you're not measuring it right
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1565
to znači da ih ili ne merite dobro
15:48
or there's something going on very quickly,
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2518
ili da se nešto dešava vrlo brzo
15:50
and it may be evolution in real time.
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4032
i to bi mogla biti evolucija u stvarnom vremenu.
15:54
Here's the bottom line.
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2503
Evo zaključka.
15:57
What I think we are doing
364
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2181
Ono šta ja mislim da se dešava
15:59
is we're transitioning as a species.
365
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1716
jeste da se menjamo kao vrsta.
16:01
And I didn't think this when Steve Gullans and I started writing together.
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5484
I nisam mislio ovako kada smo Stiv Galans i ja počeli da radimo zajedno.
16:06
I think we're transitioning into Homo evolutis
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Mislim da se menjamo u Homo Evolutis
16:08
that, for better or worse,
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1399
koji, u dobru i zlu,
16:10
is not just a hominid that's conscious of his or her environment,
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4182
nije samo humanoid koji je svestan sebe u okruženju,
16:14
it's a hominid that's beginning to directly and deliberately
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3219
to je humanoid koji počinje da direktno i namerno
16:17
control the evolution of its own species,
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3198
kontroliše evoluciju sopstvene vrste,
16:20
of bacteria, of plants, of animals.
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3834
bakterija, biljaka, životinja.
16:24
And I think that's such an order of magnitude change
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I mislim da je to promena takvih razmera
16:27
that your grandkids or your great-grandkids
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3103
da bi vaši unuci i vaši praunuci
16:30
may be a species very different from you.
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mogli biti vrlo različita vrsta od vas.
16:33
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
16:35
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
About this website

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