Juan Enriquez: Will our kids be a different species?

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Zheng Song 審譯者: Ren Wan

All right. So, like all good stories,

好吧，就像那些童話故事一樣，

this starts a long, long time ago

這個故事要從很久很久以前講起，

when there was basically nothing.

當時宇宙基本上是一片空白

So here is a complete picture of the universe

這張圖片展現的就是

about 14-odd billion years ago.

140多億年前的整個宇宙

All energy is concentrated into a single point of energy.

所有的能量都集中在一個能量點

For some reason it explodes,

由於某種原因它爆炸了

and you begin to get these things.

宇宙裏開始出現這些東西

So you're now about 14 billion years into this.

它們已經存在了140多億年

And these things expand and expand and expand

而且在不斷地擴大、擴大、擴大

into these giant galaxies,

形成了這些巨大的星系

and you get trillions of them.

數量達到幾萬億

And within these galaxies

在這些星系裏

you get these enormous dust clouds.

出現大量的塵埃雲

And I want you to pay particular attention

請大家注意看

to the three little prongs

圖片中心的

in the center of this picture.

這三個小突起

If you take a close-up of those,

如果給它們來個特寫的話

they look like this.

它們看上去就是這個樣子

And what you're looking at is columns of dust

大家所看到的是塵埃柱

where there's so much dust --

其中滿是塵埃

by the way, the scale of this is a trillion vertical miles --

順便提一句，它的規模有一萬億英里

and what's happening is there's so much dust,

這些大量的塵埃

it comes together and it fuses

相互聚集，熔合

and ignites a thermonuclear reaction.

引發了熱核反應

And so what you're watching

現在大家所看到的

is the birth of stars.

便是恒星的誕生

These are stars being born out of here.

恒星就是在這裏產生的

When enough stars come out,

當恒星的數量足夠多時

they create a galaxy.

它們形成了一個星系

This one happens to be a particularly important galaxy,

而這個星系恰巧是至關重要的

because you are here.

因為我們大家就生活在這裏

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And as you take a close-up of this galaxy,

仔細觀察這個星系

you find a relatively normal,

我們會發現一個比較平凡

not particularly interesting star.

並不引人注目的恒星

By the way, you're now about two-thirds of the way into this story.

順便提一句，這個故事已經講了三分之二了

So this star doesn't even appear

而這顆恒星

until about two-thirds of the way into this story.

卻直到現在才出現

And then what happens

現在的情況是

is there's enough dust left over

由於剩餘的塵埃

that it doesn't ignite into a star,

不足以引發熱核反應形成恒星

it becomes a planet.

於是它成為了行星

And this is about a little over four billion years ago.

這大約發生在40億年前

And soon thereafter

不久之後

there's enough material left over

由於擁有足夠的剩餘原料

that you get a primordial soup,

便有了一鍋「原湯」

and that creates life.

生命便從這裏起源

And life starts to expand and expand and expand,

而且不斷地擴大、擴大、再擴大

until it goes kaput.

直到它塵歸塵，土歸土

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Now the really strange thing

有件事情非常的奇怪

is life goes kaput, not once, not twice,

生命滅絕了不止一次、兩次

but five times.

而是五次

So almost all life on Earth

幾乎地球上的所有生命

is wiped out about five times.

都被消滅了五次

And as you're thinking about that,

正如大家所想的一樣

what happens is you get more and more complexity,

新生命變得越來越複雜

more and more stuff

越來越多的材質

to build new things with.

包含在裏面

And we don't appear

而我們人類

until about 99.96 percent of the time into this story,

直到這個故事的99.96%才出現

just to put ourselves and our ancestors in perspective.

以便我們正確看待自己和我們的祖先

So within that context, there's two theories of the case

在這個背景下有兩種理論

as to why we're all here.

來解釋人類為什麼存在

The first theory of the case

第一種理論

is that's all she wrote.

這都是她寫下來的

Under that theory,

按照這種理論

we are the be-all and end-all

人類是造物主

of all creation.

最重要的創造

And the reason for trillions of galaxies,

所以數萬億的星系

sextillions of planets,

以及數量眾多的行星存在的原因

is to create something that looks like that

是為了創造這樣…

and something that looks like that.

和那樣的生命體

And that's the purpose of the universe;

這就是宇宙存在的目的

and then it flat-lines,

然後它就開始走平穩路線

it doesn't get any better.

沒有再進一步提高水準

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

The only question you might want to ask yourself is,

大家可能想問自己

could that be just mildly arrogant?

這樣的解釋是不是有些妄自尊大呢？

And if it is --

如果是這樣的話

and particularly given the fact that we came very close to extinction.

特別是鑒於人類曾經接近滅絕的事實

There were only about 2,000 of our species left.

當時只剩下大約二千人

A few more weeks without rain,

要是再有幾個星期不下雨

we would have never seen any of these.

我們就再也見不到這些名人了

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

(Applause)

(掌聲)

So maybe you have to think about a second theory

因此我們也許不得不考慮另一種理論

if the first one isn't good enough.

如果第一種解釋不通的話

Second theory is: Could we upgrade?

第二種理論是：我們能不能「升級」?

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Well, why would one ask a question like that?

怎麼會有人問出這樣的問題呢？

Because there have been at least 29 upgrades so far

因為目前為止一經發現

of humanoids.

人類已至少「升級」了29次

So it turns out that we have upgraded.

結果表明我們確實「升級」了

We've upgraded time and again and again.

人類一次一次地「升級」

And it turns out that we keep discovering upgrades.

而且我們還在不斷地發現新的「升級」的證據

We found this one last year.

這是去年發現的

We found another one last month.

我們上個月還發現了一個

And as you're thinking about this,

現在大家都在思考這個理論

you might also ask the question:

可能會產生這個疑問

So why a single human species?

為什麼僅僅是人類呢？

Wouldn't it be really odd

如果我們在非洲、亞洲、南極洲

if you went to Africa and Asia and Antarctica

發現同一種鳥類

and found exactly the same bird --

會不會是件很稀奇的事情？

particularly given that we co-existed at the same time

特別是考慮到我們曾經

with at least eight other versions of humanoid

和至少其他八類人種

at the same time on this planet?

在這個星球上共同存在過

So the normal state of affairs

智人是唯一存在的人種這種說法

is not to have just a Homo sapiens;

不是自然界的普遍法則

the normal state of affairs

自然界的普遍法則是

is to have various versions of humans walking around.

各種不同種類的人

And if that is the normal state of affairs,

如果自然界的法則是這樣

then you might ask yourself,

那麼你可能要問自己

all right, so if we want to create something else,

如果我們想創造出其他的人種

how big does a mutation have to be?

要產生多大的變異才可以？

Well Svante Paabo has the answer.

Svante Paabo 給出了答案

The difference between humans and Neanderthal

人類和尼安德塔人(遠古的人種)

is 0.004 percent of gene code.

基因上只有0.004%的差別

That's how big the difference is

一個人種和另一個人種

one species to another.

就是這麼一點差別

This explains most contemporary political debates.

這就解釋了現在多數的政治糾紛

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

But as you're thinking about this,

大家仔細想一想

one of the interesting things

一件非常有意思的事情

is how small these mutations are and where they take place.

這些變異有多麼微妙？又是在哪發生的？

Difference human/Neanderthal

人類和尼安德塔人的不同在於

is sperm and testis,

精子與睪丸

smell and skin.

氣味與皮膚

And those are the specific genes

這些特殊的基因

that differ from one to the other.

產生了人與人的區別

So very small changes can have a big impact.

因此一點小小的變化就能產生很大的影響

And as you're thinking about this,

大家想想

we're continuing to mutate.

我們一直在變異

So about 10,000 years ago by the Black Sea,

在大約一萬年前的黑海

we had one mutation in one gene

人類的一個基因產生了變異

which led to blue eyes.

因此出現了藍色的眼睛

And this is continuing and continuing and continuing.

這樣的變異一直持續著、持續著

And as it continues,

與此同時

one of the things that's going to happen this year

一件大事將在今年發生

is we're going to discover the first 10,000 human genomes,

我們將發現前一萬個人類基因組

because it's gotten cheap enough to do the gene sequencing.

這得益於基因序列研究已經不那麼昂貴了

And when we find these,

當我們發現這些基因之後

we may find differences.

我們會找到一些不同以往的理論

And by the way, this is not a debate that we're ready for,

順便說一句，我們沒有準備好爭論這個問題

because we have really misused the science in this.

因為我們在這個問題上誤用了科學

In the 1920s, we thought there were major differences between people.

在1920年代，我們曾認為不同人之間的基因有很大差別

That was partly based on Francis Galton's work.

這是部分基於法蘭西斯•高爾頓的研究

He was Darwin's cousin.

他是達爾文的表弟

But the U.S., the Carnegie Institute,

在美國，卡內基研究所

Stanford, American Neurological Association

史丹佛，美國神經病學協會

took this really far.

把這種研究進一步深入

That got exported and was really misused.

進而傳播到其他地方被錯誤地使用

In fact, it led to some absolutely horrendous

事實上它對人類平等待遇

treatment of human beings.

造成了非常可怕的後果

So since the 1940s, we've been saying there are no differences,

所以自1940年代，我們一直在說我們沒有差別

we're all identical.

大家都是一樣的

We're going to know at year end if that is true.

今年年底我們將知道這是不是真的

And as we think about that,

現在大家想想

we're actually beginning to find things

事實上，我們開始發現一些東西

like, do you have an ACE gene?

比如，你有ACE基因嗎？

Why would that matter?

它有什麼重要的呢？

Because nobody's ever climbed an 8,000-meter peak without oxygen

因為沒有一個不帶氧氣能爬上8000米高的山峰的人

that doesn't have an ACE gene.

是不攜帶ACE基因的

And if you want to get more specific,

如果你想瞭解得更具體

how about a 577R genotype?

來看看577R基因型怎麼樣？

Well it turns out that every male Olympic power athelete ever tested

結果表明每個接受檢測的奧運男運動員

carries at least one of these variants.

都攜帶這種基因型的至少一種變體

If that is true,

如果這是真的

it leads to some very complicated questions

那麼就有一些很複雜的問題

for the London Olympics.

留給倫敦奧運會

Three options:

三個問題

Do you want the Olympics to be a showcase

我們希望奧運會成為

for really hardworking mutants?

刻苦訓練的、擁有突變基因的運動員展示的舞臺嗎？

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Option number two:

第二

Why don't we play it like golf or sailing?

為什麼我們不像高爾夫球或者帆船運動那樣比賽呢？

Because you have one and you don't have one,

因為你有這個基因、而你沒有

I'll give you a tenth of a second head start.

我會讓你搶佔十分之一秒的優勢

Version number three:

第三

Because this is a naturally occurring gene

因為這是自然形成的基因

and you've got it and you didn't pick the right parents,

你有幸的到了這個基因、而你卻投錯了胎

you get the right to upgrade.

所以你可以晉級

Three different options.

三種不同的選擇

If these differences are the difference

如果這些差別就是

between an Olympic medal and a non-Olympic medal.

奧運獎牌和非奧運獎牌的差別

And it turns out that as we discover these things,

就像我們所發現的一樣

we human beings really like to change

人類非常願意改變

how we look, how we act,

自己的容貌、 行為方式

what our bodies do.

以及身體狀況

And we had about 10.2 million plastic surgeries in the United States,

在美國有過大約1020萬例整形外科手術

except that with the technologies that are coming online today,

除了那些即將上線的新技術

today's corrections, deletions,

現如今修復、去除

augmentations and enhancements

豐胸、美容

are going to seem like child's play.

看起來如同兒戲一般

You already saw the work by Tony Atala on TED,

我們在TED上看過 Tony Atala 的研究

but this ability to start filling

這種填充東西的技術

things like inkjet cartridges with cells

就像是裝滿細胞的噴墨水匣一樣

are allowing us to print skin, organs

讓我們能隨心所欲的 “列印” 皮膚、器官

and a whole series of other body parts.

以及一系列身體部位

And as these technologies go forward,

隨著這些技術的進步

you keep seeing this, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing things --

我們會不斷看到這個，我們會不斷看到這個，我們會不斷看到新東西

2000, human genome sequence --

2000年，人類基因組序列

and it seems like nothing's happening,

事情就好像是直到該發生的時候

until it does.

才會發生

And we may just be in some of these weeks.

我們也許就處在發生重大變革的這幾個星期內

And as you're thinking about

我們知道

these two guys sequencing a human genome in 2000

這兩位在2000年研究人類基因序列

and the Public Project sequencing the human genome in 2000,

還有2000年的人類基因序列公開專案

then you don't hear a lot,

然後就沒有太多這方面的消息了

until you hear about an experiment last year in China,

直到大家聽說在中國的一次實驗

where they take skin cells from this mouse,

他們從老鼠身上取出皮膚細胞

put four chemicals on it,

在上面注入四種化學藥劑

turn those skin cells into stem cells,

把皮膚細胞轉變成幹細胞

let the stem cells grow

讓這些幹細胞生長

and create a full copy of that mouse.

然後完全“複製”了那只老鼠

That's a big deal.

這是很了不起的

Because in essence

因為從本質上講

what it means is you can take a cell,

這就意味著我們可以拿一個

which is a pluripotent stem cell,

多能幹細胞

which is like a skier at the top of a mountain,

它們就像山頂上的滑雪者

and those two skiers become two pluripotent stem cells,

兩個滑雪者就是兩個多功能幹細胞

four, eight, 16,

分裂成四個、八個、十六個

and then it gets so crowded

然後就變得越來越擁擠

after 16 divisions

十六次分裂之後

that those cells have to differentiate.

這些細胞不得不變異

So they go down one side of the mountain,

所以他們從山的一面走下來

they go down another.

他們從另一面走下來

And as they pick that,

當他們選擇了這條路

these become bone,

就變成了骨骼

and then they pick another road and these become platelets,

那些選擇另一條路的變成了血小板

and these become macrophages,

這些變成了巨噬細胞

and these become T cells.

這些變成了T細胞

But it's really hard, once you ski down,

可是一旦你滑下去

to get back up.

就很難再回頭了

Unless, of course, if you have a ski lift.

當然啦，除非你有滑雪纜車

And what those four chemicals do

那四種化學藥劑的作用

is they take any cell

就是載著細胞

and take it way back up the mountain

回到山頂上

so it can become any body part.

讓它們具有變成身體任何部分的能力

And as you think of that,

正如大家所想的

what it means is potentially

這就意味著

you can rebuild a full copy

我們很有可能

of any organism

只用一個細胞

out of any one of its cells.

複製任何器官

That turns out to be a big deal

這是一個重大突破

because now you can take, not just mouse cells,

因為現在不僅是老鼠細胞

but you can human skin cells

我們可以把人類的皮膚細胞

and turn them into human stem cells.

變成幹細胞

And then what they did in October

就在10月份

is they took skin cells, turned them into stem cells

他們把皮膚細胞變成了幹細胞

and began to turn them into liver cells.

然後開始把它們變成肝臟細胞

So in theory,

所以理論上講

you could grow any organ from any one of your cells.

我們的任何一個細胞可以被培養成任何一個器官

Here's a second experiment:

這是第二個實驗

If you could photocopy your body,

如果我們能給身體做個影印件

maybe you also want to take your mind.

或許也想給思想做一個

And one of the things you saw at TED

大約一年半之前

about a year and a half ago

大家在TED

was this guy.

見過這個傢伙

And he gave a wonderful technical talk.

他做了很精彩的技術演講

He's a professor at MIT.

他是MIT的教授

But in essence what he said

但本質上，他說的是

is you can take retroviruses,

利用逆轉錄病毒

which get inside brain cells of mice.

讓它們進入老鼠的腦細胞

You can tag them with proteins

並用蛋白質標記它們

that light up when you light them.

這種蛋白質在被照亮時會發光

And you can map the exact pathways

當老鼠看到、感覺到、觸摸到東西

when a mouse sees, feels, touches,

回憶、戀愛的時候

remembers, loves.

我們能夠準確描繪出腦部活動路徑

And then you can take a fiber optic cable

我們可以用光纖電纜

and light up some of the same things.

點亮這些相同的東西

And by the way, as you do this,

我們在做這件事情的時候

you can image it in two colors,

可以把它們製成兩種顏色

which means you can download this information

這意味著我們可以把這些資訊

as binary code directly into a computer.

像二進位碼一樣下載到電腦上

So what's the bottom line on that?

這件事情本質上是什麼呢？

Well it's not completely inconceivable

不難想像

that someday you'll be able to download your own memories,

也許有一天我們可以把自己的記憶

maybe into a new body.

下載到一個新的軀體裏

And maybe you can upload other people's memories as well.

或許也可以把別人的記憶載入到自己身上

And this might have just one or two

估計這只會引起一兩個

small ethical, political, moral implications.

小小的政治上、道德上的問題

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Just a thought.

隨便想想而已

Here's the kind of questions

有一些問題

that are becoming interesting questions

正在逐漸引起

for philosophers, for governing people,

哲學家、管理者

for economists, for scientists.

經濟學家、科學家的興趣

Because these technologies are moving really quickly.

因為這些技術傳播的非常快

And as you think about it,

大家意猶未盡

let me close with an example of the brain.

讓我舉個關於大腦的例子來結束今天的演講

The first place where you would expect

如果我們最先期待

to see enormous evolutionary pressure today,

看到一個器官的顯著進化

both because of the inputs,

不僅因為

which are becoming massive,

在這方面越來越多的研究投入

and because of the plasticity of the organ,

而且由於其具有可塑性

is the brain.

那麼這個器官就是大腦

Do we have any evidence that that is happening?

有證據證明這種進化正在發生嗎？

Well let's take a look at something like autism incidence per thousand.

讓我們來看看每千人中自閉症發生概率

Here's what it looks like in 2000.

這是2000年的狀況

Here's what it looks like in 2002,

這是2002年的狀況

2006, 2008.

2006，2008

Here's the increase in less than a decade.

這是不到10年的時間裏所增加的數量

And we still don't know why this is happening.

我們直到現在也不知道為什麼是這樣

What we do know is, potentially,

我們所知道的是，

the brain is reacting in

大腦潛在的以一種

a hyperactive, hyper-plastic way,

極度活躍的方式在反應

and creating individuals that are like this.

並創造出同樣活躍的個體

And this is only one of the conditions that's out there.

這僅僅是其中存在的一種情況

You've also got people with who are extraordinarily smart,

我們還見過非常聰明的人

people who can remember everything they've seen in their lives,

過目不忘的人

people who've got synesthesia,

能產生牽連感覺的人

people who've got schizophrenia.

精神分裂的人

You've got all kinds of stuff going on out there,

我們見過各種各樣的情況

and we still don't understand

但現在依舊不明白

how and why this is happening.

為什麼這一切發會生，是又如何發生的

But one question you might want to ask is,

大家可能要問

are we seeing a rapid evolution of the brain

大腦是在高速進化嗎？

and of how we process data?

我們是怎樣處理資料的?

Because when you think of how much data's coming into our brains,

當涉及到有多少資料進入大腦時

we're trying to take in as much data in a day

我們現在一天內要接收的資訊

as people used to take in in a lifetime.

相當於過去人們一輩子所接收到的資訊

And as you're thinking about this,

現在大家考慮一下這個問題

there's four theories as to why this might be going on,

這裏有四種理論來解釋這種現象

plus a whole series of others.

以及一系列其他的理論

I don't have a good answer.

我給不出一個漂亮的答案

There really needs to be more research on this.

在這方面確實還需要更多的研究

One option is the fast food fetish.

一個選擇是速食迷戀

There's beginning to be some evidence

開始有證據表明

that obesity and diet

肥胖和飲食

have something to do

與基因改造

with gene modifications,

有關

which may or may not have an impact

但不能確定

on how the brain of an infant works.

它對嬰兒大腦運作的影響

A second option is the sexy geek option.

第二個選擇是“性感的書呆子”

These conditions are highly rare.

這種情況確實很少見

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

But what's beginning to happen

現在的情況是

is because these geeks are all getting together,

這些書呆子們聚在一起

because they are highly qualified for computer programming

他們有很高的電腦編程技能

and it is highly remunerated,

酬勞很高

as well as other very detail-oriented tasks,

還有從事其他注重細節的工作

that they are concentrating geographically

他們集中到一起

and finding like-minded mates.

尋找志同道合的人

So this is the assortative mating hypothesis

所以這就是選擇性交配假設

of these genes reinforcing one another

這些基因在體系中

in these structures.

互相增援

The third, is this too much information?

第三，資訊是不是太多了？

We're trying to process so much stuff

我們的大腦試圖處理太多的資訊

that some people get synesthetic

以至於有些人產生了牽連感覺

and just have huge pipes that remember everything.

他們擁有巨大的管道來記住所有事情

Other people get hyper-sensitive to the amount of information.

有一些人對大量資訊過分敏感

Other people react with various psychological conditions

有一些人對資訊做出反應時

or reactions to this information.

伴隨著各種各樣心理上的狀況和反應

Or maybe it's chemicals.

也許是化學反應

But when you see an increase

如果發現

of that order of magnitude in a condition,

某種情況的數量大幅度提升

either you're not measuring it right

不是測量不準確

or there's something going on very quickly,

就是有什麼事情正在迅速發展

and it may be evolution in real time.

說不定就是在進化

Here's the bottom line.

歸根結底

What I think we are doing

我認為作為一個物種

is we're transitioning as a species.

我們正在轉化

And I didn't think this when Steve Gullans and I started writing together.

當Steve Gullans和我一起寫作的時候我並不這樣認為

I think we're transitioning into Homo evolutis

我覺得我們正在向演化人轉化

that, for better or worse,

無論是好是壞

is not just a hominid that's conscious of his or her environment,

這都不僅僅是一個只對周圍環境有意識的人種

it's a hominid that's beginning to directly and deliberately

而是一个直接的、有意的

control the evolution of its own species,

想要控制

of bacteria, of plants, of animals.

自己的种族、細菌、植物、乃至動物进化的人种

And I think that's such an order of magnitude change

我認為，如果我們的孫輩或重孫輩

that your grandkids or your great-grandkids

與我們是完全不同的物種

may be a species very different from you.

將是一個翻天覆地的改變

Thank you very much.

謝謝大家

(Applause)

（掌聲）