Juan Enriquez: Will our kids be a different species?

202,841 views ・ 2012-06-04

TED


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00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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Prevoditelj: Suzana Baric Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:15
All right. So, like all good stories,
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U redu. Kao i svaka dobra priča,
00:17
this starts a long, long time ago
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i ova počinje nekada davno
00:19
when there was basically nothing.
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kada praktički nije bilo ničega.
00:21
So here is a complete picture of the universe
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Ovdje je cjelokupna slika svemira
00:24
about 14-odd billion years ago.
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prije oko 14 milijardi godina.
00:27
All energy is concentrated into a single point of energy.
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Sva energija je koncentrirana u jednoj jedinoj točki energije.
00:30
For some reason it explodes,
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Iz nekog razloga eksplodira,
00:32
and you begin to get these things.
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i počinjete dobivati ovo.
00:34
So you're now about 14 billion years into this.
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Sada ste 14 milijardi godina u prošlosti.
00:37
And these things expand and expand and expand
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I to se širi i širi
00:39
into these giant galaxies,
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u ove ogromne galaksije,
00:40
and you get trillions of them.
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i dobijete ih na bilijune.
00:42
And within these galaxies
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A unutar ovih galaksija
00:44
you get these enormous dust clouds.
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dobijete ove ogromne oblake prašine.
00:46
And I want you to pay particular attention
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Posebnu pažnju želim posvetiti
00:48
to the three little prongs
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ovim trima šiljcima
00:49
in the center of this picture.
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u središtu ove slike.
00:51
If you take a close-up of those,
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Ako ih uvećate,
00:52
they look like this.
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izgledaju ovako.
00:54
And what you're looking at is columns of dust
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Gledate stupce prašine
00:57
where there's so much dust --
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gdje ima toliko prašine --
00:59
by the way, the scale of this is a trillion vertical miles --
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usput, mjerilo je bilijun vertikalnih milja,
01:03
and what's happening is there's so much dust,
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a ovdje ima toliko prašine,
01:06
it comes together and it fuses
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da se skuplja i sjedinjuje
01:08
and ignites a thermonuclear reaction.
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i dovodi do termonuklearne reakcije.
01:12
And so what you're watching
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Upravo gledate
01:13
is the birth of stars.
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rođenje zvijezde.
01:14
These are stars being born out of here.
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Ove se zvijezde rađaju odavde.
01:16
When enough stars come out,
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Kada dovoljno zvijezda izađe,
01:19
they create a galaxy.
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stvore galaksiju.
01:20
This one happens to be a particularly important galaxy,
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Ovo je, naime, veoma važna galaksija,
01:24
because you are here.
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zato što ste vi ovdje.
01:26
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:27
And as you take a close-up of this galaxy,
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I kako uvećavate snimku ove galaksije,
01:29
you find a relatively normal,
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pronađete jednu relativno normalnu,
01:31
not particularly interesting star.
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ne baš zanimljivu zvijezdu.
01:33
By the way, you're now about two-thirds of the way into this story.
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Usput, sad smo na dvije trećine ove priče.
01:37
So this star doesn't even appear
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Dakle, ova zvijezda se ni ne pojavi
01:40
until about two-thirds of the way into this story.
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do oko dvije trećine priče.
01:42
And then what happens
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A onda
01:44
is there's enough dust left over
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je dovoljno prašine preostalo
01:45
that it doesn't ignite into a star,
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pa se ne upali u zvijezdu,
01:47
it becomes a planet.
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već postane planet.
01:49
And this is about a little over four billion years ago.
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A to se dogodilo prije malo više od 4 milijarde godina.
01:54
And soon thereafter
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A uskoro nakon toga
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there's enough material left over
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preostalo je dovoljno materijala
01:57
that you get a primordial soup,
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da dobijete svemirsku juhu,
02:02
and that creates life.
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iz koje nastaje život.
02:03
And life starts to expand and expand and expand,
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I život se počne širiti i širiti,
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until it goes kaput.
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dok ne ode k vragu.
02:09
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:13
Now the really strange thing
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Zbilja je neobično što
02:14
is life goes kaput, not once, not twice,
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život ne ode k vragu jednom, dvaput,
02:17
but five times.
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već pet puta.
02:19
So almost all life on Earth
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Pa je skoro sav život na Zemlji
02:21
is wiped out about five times.
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izbrisan oko pet puta.
02:24
And as you're thinking about that,
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I kako razmišljate o tome,
02:25
what happens is you get more and more complexity,
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dobivate sve više kompleksnosti,
02:28
more and more stuff
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sve više stvari
02:29
to build new things with.
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za izgradnju novih stvari.
02:33
And we don't appear
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A mi se ne pojavljujemo
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until about 99.96 percent of the time into this story,
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do oko 99.96% priče,
02:40
just to put ourselves and our ancestors in perspective.
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tek da bismo to usporedili sa sobom i našim precima.
02:44
So within that context, there's two theories of the case
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Unutar tog konteksta postoje dvije teorije
02:47
as to why we're all here.
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zašto smo svi ovdje.
02:49
The first theory of the case
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Prva teorija
02:51
is that's all she wrote.
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je da je to gotova priča.
02:54
Under that theory,
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Prema toj teoriji,
02:55
we are the be-all and end-all
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mi smo sve što postoji i kraj
02:57
of all creation.
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svega što postoji.
02:59
And the reason for trillions of galaxies,
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A razlog za postojanje bilijuna galaksija,
03:02
sextillions of planets,
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trilijuna planeta,
03:04
is to create something that looks like that
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jest stvoriti nešto što izgleda ovako
03:09
and something that looks like that.
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i nešto što izgleda onako.
03:12
And that's the purpose of the universe;
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I to je svrha svemira;
03:14
and then it flat-lines,
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kada umre,
03:15
it doesn't get any better.
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neće biti ništa bolje.
03:16
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:21
The only question you might want to ask yourself is,
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Jedino pitanje koje biste si možda željeli postaviti
03:24
could that be just mildly arrogant?
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jest: Nije li to pomalo arogantno?
03:29
And if it is --
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A ako jest --
03:31
and particularly given the fact that we came very close to extinction.
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posebice zato što smo došli veoma blizu izumiranju.
03:36
There were only about 2,000 of our species left.
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U prošlosti je bilo preostalo samo 2.000 jedinki naše vrste.
03:39
A few more weeks without rain,
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Još nekoliko tjedana bez kiše
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we would have never seen any of these.
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i nikada ne bismo vidjeli ništa od ovoga.
03:44
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:51
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
03:56
So maybe you have to think about a second theory
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Pa možda trebate razmisliti o drugoj teoriji
03:59
if the first one isn't good enough.
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ako prva nije dovoljno dobra.
04:02
Second theory is: Could we upgrade?
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Druga teorija je: Možemo li se nadograditi?
04:03
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:06
Well, why would one ask a question like that?
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Pa zašto bi netko tako nešto pitao?
04:10
Because there have been at least 29 upgrades so far
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Zato što je bilo barem 29 nadogradnji humanoida
04:12
of humanoids.
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do sada.
04:14
So it turns out that we have upgraded.
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Ispada da smo se već nadograđivali.
04:17
We've upgraded time and again and again.
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Nadograđivali smo se opet i opet iznova.
04:19
And it turns out that we keep discovering upgrades.
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I ispada da i dalje otkrivamo nadogradnje.
04:22
We found this one last year.
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Ovu smo našli prošle godine.
04:24
We found another one last month.
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Još jednu smo našli prošli mjesec.
04:27
And as you're thinking about this,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
04:29
you might also ask the question:
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mogli biste se zapitati:
04:31
So why a single human species?
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Pa zašto samo jedna ljudska vrsta?
04:34
Wouldn't it be really odd
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Ne bi li bilo stvarno čudno
04:36
if you went to Africa and Asia and Antarctica
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da odete u Afriku, Aziju i na Antartiku
04:40
and found exactly the same bird --
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i nađete u potpunosti istu pticu --
04:42
particularly given that we co-existed at the same time
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osobito ako uzmemo u obzir da smo postojali istovremeno
04:46
with at least eight other versions of humanoid
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s barem osam drugih verzija humanoida
04:49
at the same time on this planet?
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na ovom planetu?
04:51
So the normal state of affairs
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Normalno stanje
04:53
is not to have just a Homo sapiens;
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nije imati samo Homo sapiensa;
04:56
the normal state of affairs
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normalno stanje je da
04:57
is to have various versions of humans walking around.
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uokolo hodaju različite verzije ljudi.
05:01
And if that is the normal state of affairs,
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A ako je to normalno stanje,
05:03
then you might ask yourself,
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tada biste se mogli zapitati:
05:06
all right, so if we want to create something else,
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Ako želimo stvoriti nešto drugo,
05:08
how big does a mutation have to be?
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koliko velika mutacija treba biti?
05:11
Well Svante Paabo has the answer.
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Svante Paabo ima odgovor.
05:13
The difference between humans and Neanderthal
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Razlika između ljudi i Neandertalaca
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is 0.004 percent of gene code.
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iznosi 0.004% genetskog koda.
05:19
That's how big the difference is
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Tolika je razlika
05:21
one species to another.
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između te dvije vrste.
05:23
This explains most contemporary political debates.
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To objašnjava najsuvremenije političke rasprave.
05:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:30
But as you're thinking about this,
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Ali dok razmišljate o tome,
05:33
one of the interesting things
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jedna od zanimljivosti
05:34
is how small these mutations are and where they take place.
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jest koliko su te mutacije male i gdje se odvijaju.
05:38
Difference human/Neanderthal
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Razlika između čovjeka i Neandertalca
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is sperm and testis,
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je u spermi i testisima,
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smell and skin.
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njuhu i koži.
05:42
And those are the specific genes
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A to su konkretni geni
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that differ from one to the other.
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koji se razlikuju od jednog do drugog.
05:46
So very small changes can have a big impact.
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Dakle, veoma male promjene mogu imati veliki učinak.
05:49
And as you're thinking about this,
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A dok razmišljate o tome,
05:51
we're continuing to mutate.
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nastavljamo mutirati.
05:53
So about 10,000 years ago by the Black Sea,
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Prije oko 10.000 godina kraj Crnog mora
05:56
we had one mutation in one gene
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dogodila se jedna mutacija u jednom genu
05:58
which led to blue eyes.
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koja je dovela do plavih očiju.
06:01
And this is continuing and continuing and continuing.
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I to se nastavlja i nastavlja.
06:05
And as it continues,
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I kako se nastavlja,
06:06
one of the things that's going to happen this year
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ove godine ćemo otkriti
06:08
is we're going to discover the first 10,000 human genomes,
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prvih 10.000 ljudskih genoma,
06:11
because it's gotten cheap enough to do the gene sequencing.
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zato što je sekvenciranje gena postalo dovoljno jeftino.
06:15
And when we find these,
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A kada ih nađemo,
06:16
we may find differences.
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mogli bismo naći razlike.
06:19
And by the way, this is not a debate that we're ready for,
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Usput, to nije rasprava za koju smo spremni
06:22
because we have really misused the science in this.
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zato što smo uistinu zloupotrijebili znanost u tome.
06:25
In the 1920s, we thought there were major differences between people.
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U 1920-ima, mislili smo da postoje važne razlike između ljudi.
06:29
That was partly based on Francis Galton's work.
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To je dijelom bilo zbog rada Francisa Galtona.
06:33
He was Darwin's cousin.
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Bio je Darwinov rođak.
06:35
But the U.S., the Carnegie Institute,
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Ali SAD, Carnegie institut,
06:37
Stanford, American Neurological Association
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Stanford, American Neurological Association
06:40
took this really far.
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su zbilja otišli daleko s tim.
06:42
That got exported and was really misused.
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Ideja je izvezena i zbilja zloupotrebljena.
06:45
In fact, it led to some absolutely horrendous
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U biti, dovela je do nekih zbilja groznih
06:48
treatment of human beings.
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postupaka prema ljudskim bićima.
06:50
So since the 1940s, we've been saying there are no differences,
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Od 1940-ih govorimo da ne postoje razlike,
06:52
we're all identical.
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da smo svi isti.
06:54
We're going to know at year end if that is true.
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Do kraja godine ćemo znati je li to istina.
06:57
And as we think about that,
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I dok razmišljamo o tome,
06:59
we're actually beginning to find things
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počeli smo zbilja pronalaziti stvari.
07:00
like, do you have an ACE gene?
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Na primjer, imate li ACE gen?
07:04
Why would that matter?
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Zašto bi to bilo važno?
07:06
Because nobody's ever climbed an 8,000-meter peak without oxygen
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Zato što su svi koji su se ikad popeli na vrh visok 8.000 metara bez kisika
07:10
that doesn't have an ACE gene.
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imali ACE gen.
07:13
And if you want to get more specific,
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Ako želite ići u detalje,
07:14
how about a 577R genotype?
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što kažete na 577R genotip?
07:17
Well it turns out that every male Olympic power athelete ever tested
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Ispada da svaki muški olimpijski atletičar ikad testiran
07:22
carries at least one of these variants.
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ima barem jednu od ovih varijanti.
07:25
If that is true,
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Ako je to točno,
07:27
it leads to some very complicated questions
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dolazi do nekih vrlo složenih pitanja
07:29
for the London Olympics.
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za londonske Olimpijske igre.
07:31
Three options:
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Postoje tri mogućnosti.
07:32
Do you want the Olympics to be a showcase
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Želite li da Olimpijske igre budu izlog
07:35
for really hardworking mutants?
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za veoma marljive mutante?
07:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:40
Option number two:
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Druga mogućnost:
07:42
Why don't we play it like golf or sailing?
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Zašto se ne bismo natjecali kao u golfu ili jedrenju?
07:46
Because you have one and you don't have one,
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Zato što ga ti imaš, a on nema,
07:48
I'll give you a tenth of a second head start.
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njemu ću dati desetinku sekunde prednosti.
07:52
Version number three:
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Verzija broj tri:
07:53
Because this is a naturally occurring gene
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Zato šo je to gen koji se prirodno javlja,
07:55
and you've got it and you didn't pick the right parents,
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ti ga imaš, a on nije odabrao prave roditelje,
07:58
you get the right to upgrade.
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ima pravo na nadogradnju.
08:02
Three different options.
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Tri različite mogućnosti.
08:04
If these differences are the difference
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Ako su te razlike one razlike
08:06
between an Olympic medal and a non-Olympic medal.
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koje odlučuju o osvajanju ili ne-osvajanju olimpijske medalje.
08:09
And it turns out that as we discover these things,
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I čini se da kako otkrivamo te stvari,
08:12
we human beings really like to change
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mi ljudska bića zbilja volimo mijenjati
08:15
how we look, how we act,
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način na koji izgledamo, kako se ponašamo,
08:17
what our bodies do.
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što naša tijela rade.
08:18
And we had about 10.2 million plastic surgeries in the United States,
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Bilo je oko 10,2 milijuna plastičnih operacija u SAD-u,
08:23
except that with the technologies that are coming online today,
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samo što će se s tehnologijama koje će doći online ovih dana,
08:26
today's corrections, deletions,
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današnje korekcije, brisanja,
08:29
augmentations and enhancements
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povećanja i poboljšanja
08:31
are going to seem like child's play.
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činiti kao dječja igra.
08:34
You already saw the work by Tony Atala on TED,
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Već ste vidjeli rad Tonyja Atale na TED-u,
08:37
but this ability to start filling
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ali ta sposobnost da se počnu puniti
08:41
things like inkjet cartridges with cells
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stvari poput spremnika boje stanicama
08:44
are allowing us to print skin, organs
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dopušta nam da tiskamo kožu, organe
08:49
and a whole series of other body parts.
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i cijeli niz drugih dijelova tijela.
08:51
And as these technologies go forward,
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A kako te tehnologije napreduju,
08:53
you keep seeing this, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing things --
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stalno viđate ovo, i ovo, viđate stvari --
08:57
2000, human genome sequence --
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2000., sekvenca humanog genoma --
09:00
and it seems like nothing's happening,
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i čini se da se ništa ne događa,
09:04
until it does.
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sve dok se ne dogodi.
09:07
And we may just be in some of these weeks.
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A možda smo baš u nekom od tih tjedana.
09:10
And as you're thinking about
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I dok razmišljate o
09:12
these two guys sequencing a human genome in 2000
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njih dvoje kako sekvenciraju ljudski genom u 2000.
09:15
and the Public Project sequencing the human genome in 2000,
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i o Public Projectu koji također sekvencira ljudski genom u 2000.,
09:19
then you don't hear a lot,
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tada ne čujete mnogo,
09:22
until you hear about an experiment last year in China,
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dok ne čujete o jednom pokusu u Kini prošle godine.
09:26
where they take skin cells from this mouse,
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U tom pokusu su uzeli stanice kože ovog miša,
09:30
put four chemicals on it,
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stavili četiri kemikalije na njih,
09:32
turn those skin cells into stem cells,
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pretvorili te stanice kože u matične stanice,
09:35
let the stem cells grow
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dopustili matičnim stanicama da rastu
09:37
and create a full copy of that mouse.
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i stvorili pravu kopiju tog miša.
09:40
That's a big deal.
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To je velika stvar.
09:43
Because in essence
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Zato što to u osnovi
09:44
what it means is you can take a cell,
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znači da možete uzeti stanicu,
09:46
which is a pluripotent stem cell,
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koja je pluripotentna matična stanica.
09:48
which is like a skier at the top of a mountain,
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Ta stanica je poput skijaša na vrhu planine,
09:51
and those two skiers become two pluripotent stem cells,
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a ova dva skijaša postanu dvije pluripotentne matične stanice,
09:55
four, eight, 16,
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četiri, osam, 16,
09:57
and then it gets so crowded
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i tada nastaje takva gužva
09:58
after 16 divisions
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nakon 16 dijeljenja
10:00
that those cells have to differentiate.
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da se te stanice moraju diferencirati.
10:03
So they go down one side of the mountain,
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Dakle, spuste se niz jednu stranu planine,
10:04
they go down another.
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spuste se niz drugu.
10:05
And as they pick that,
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I kako to odaberu,
10:07
these become bone,
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postaju kosti,
10:09
and then they pick another road and these become platelets,
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a onda odaberu drugu stazu i postaju trombociti,
10:12
and these become macrophages,
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ove postaju makrofagi,
10:14
and these become T cells.
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a ove postaju T limfociti.
10:15
But it's really hard, once you ski down,
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Ali zbilja je teško, jednom kad se spustite,
10:17
to get back up.
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popeti se natrag gore.
10:19
Unless, of course, if you have a ski lift.
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Osim ako, naravno, imate žičaru.
10:24
And what those four chemicals do
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A te četiri kemikalije
10:27
is they take any cell
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uzmu bilo koju stanicu
10:29
and take it way back up the mountain
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1932
i odnesu je natrag gore na planinu
10:31
so it can become any body part.
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pa može postati bilo koji dio tijela.
10:33
And as you think of that,
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Kada razmislite,
10:35
what it means is potentially
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1980
to znači da potencijalno
10:37
you can rebuild a full copy
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možete ponovno sagraditi pravu kopiju
10:39
of any organism
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bilo kojeg organizma
10:41
out of any one of its cells.
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iz bilo koje od njegovih stanica.
10:43
That turns out to be a big deal
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To je velika stvar
10:46
because now you can take, not just mouse cells,
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zato što možete uzeti, ne samo mišje stanice,
10:48
but you can human skin cells
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već ljudske stanice kože
10:51
and turn them into human stem cells.
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i pretvoriti ih u ljudske matične stanice.
10:54
And then what they did in October
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A onda su u listopadu
10:57
is they took skin cells, turned them into stem cells
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uzeli stanice kože, pretvorili ih u matične stanice
11:01
and began to turn them into liver cells.
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i počeli ih pretvarati u stanice jetre.
11:05
So in theory,
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Dakle, teoretski,
11:06
you could grow any organ from any one of your cells.
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mogli biste uzgojiti bilo koji organ iz bilo koje od vaših stanica.
11:11
Here's a second experiment:
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Evo drugog pokusa:
11:12
If you could photocopy your body,
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Kada biste mogli fotokopirati svoje tijelo,
11:16
maybe you also want to take your mind.
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možda biste također željeli uzeti i svoj um.
11:19
And one of the things you saw at TED
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A jedna od stvari koje ste vidjeli na TED-u
11:20
about a year and a half ago
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prije nekih godinu i pol
11:21
was this guy.
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bio je ovaj tip.
11:23
And he gave a wonderful technical talk.
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A on je održao prekrasan govor o tehnici.
11:26
He's a professor at MIT.
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Profesor je na MIT-u.
11:27
But in essence what he said
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Ali, u suštini, rekao je da
11:29
is you can take retroviruses,
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možete uzeti retroviruse,
11:31
which get inside brain cells of mice.
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koji dođu unutar mozgova miševa.
11:34
You can tag them with proteins
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Možete ih označiti proteinima
11:36
that light up when you light them.
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koji svijetle kada ih upalite.
11:38
And you can map the exact pathways
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I možete mapirati točne puteve
11:42
when a mouse sees, feels, touches,
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kada miš vidi, osjeća, dodiruje,
11:45
remembers, loves.
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pamti, voli.
11:47
And then you can take a fiber optic cable
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A onda možete uzeti kabel s optičkim vlaknima
11:50
and light up some of the same things.
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i upaliti neke od njih.
11:54
And by the way, as you do this,
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A to što radite,
11:55
you can image it in two colors,
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možete prikazati u dvije boje,
11:57
which means you can download this information
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što znači da možete downloadati tu informaciju
12:00
as binary code directly into a computer.
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kao binarni kod izravno na kompjuter.
12:05
So what's the bottom line on that?
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Koja je poanta toga?
12:07
Well it's not completely inconceivable
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Pa, nije u potpunosti nezamislivo
12:09
that someday you'll be able to download your own memories,
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da ćete jednog dana moći downloadati vlastita sjećanja,
12:14
maybe into a new body.
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možda u neko novo tijelo.
12:16
And maybe you can upload other people's memories as well.
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A možda ćete moći i uploadati i sjećanja drugih ljudi.
12:21
And this might have just one or two
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I to bi moglo imati samo jednu ili dvije
12:24
small ethical, political, moral implications.
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male etičke, političke, moralne implikacije.
12:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:29
Just a thought.
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To je samo zamisao.
12:32
Here's the kind of questions
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Evo vrste pitanja
12:33
that are becoming interesting questions
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753838
1980
koja postaju zanimljivima
12:35
for philosophers, for governing people,
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2484
za filozofe, ljude na vlasti,
12:38
for economists, for scientists.
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za ekonomiste, za znanstvenike.
12:41
Because these technologies are moving really quickly.
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Jer, te tehnologije napreduju veoma brzo.
12:44
And as you think about it,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
12:46
let me close with an example of the brain.
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dopustite da dovršim jednim primjerom mozga.
12:49
The first place where you would expect
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Prvo mjesto na kojem biste očekivali
12:51
to see enormous evolutionary pressure today,
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vidjeti ogromni evolucijski pritisak danas,
12:54
both because of the inputs,
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2265
i zbog inputa,
12:56
which are becoming massive,
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1552
koji postaju obilni,
12:58
and because of the plasticity of the organ,
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1782
i zbog plastičnosti tog organa,
12:59
is the brain.
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jest mozak.
13:02
Do we have any evidence that that is happening?
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Imamo li ikakve dokaze da se to događa?
13:05
Well let's take a look at something like autism incidence per thousand.
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Pogledajmo na pojavu autizma na 1.000 ljudi.
13:10
Here's what it looks like in 2000.
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2502
Evo kako je to izgledalo 2000.
13:12
Here's what it looks like in 2002,
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2082
Ovako je izgledalo 2002.,
13:15
2006, 2008.
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2006., 2008.
13:19
Here's the increase in less than a decade.
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Eto povećanja u periodu manjem od jednog desetljeća.
13:23
And we still don't know why this is happening.
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I još ne znamo zašto se to događa.
13:28
What we do know is, potentially,
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Ono što znamo jest da, vjerojatno,
13:30
the brain is reacting in
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2032
mozak reagira na
13:32
a hyperactive, hyper-plastic way,
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hiperaktivan, hiper-plastičan način,
13:34
and creating individuals that are like this.
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i stvara pojedince koji su ovakvi.
13:37
And this is only one of the conditions that's out there.
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A to je samo jedan od uvjeta koji postoje.
13:40
You've also got people with who are extraordinarily smart,
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Postoje i ljudi koji su natprirodno pametni,
13:44
people who can remember everything they've seen in their lives,
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ljude koji se sjećaju svega što su u životu vidjeli,
13:46
people who've got synesthesia,
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ljude koji imaju sinesteziju,
13:47
people who've got schizophrenia.
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one koji imaju shizofreniju.
13:49
You've got all kinds of stuff going on out there,
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Mnogo se toga tu događa,
13:51
and we still don't understand
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a još uvijek ne razumijemo
13:52
how and why this is happening.
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kako i zašto.
13:55
But one question you might want to ask is,
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No, jedno pitanje koje biste možda željeli postaviti jest:
13:57
are we seeing a rapid evolution of the brain
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Vidimo li naglu evoluciju mozga
14:00
and of how we process data?
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i načina na koji obrađujemo podatke?
14:02
Because when you think of how much data's coming into our brains,
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Kada razmislite o tome koliko podataka dolazi u naš mozak,
14:05
we're trying to take in as much data in a day
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pokušavamo u jednom danu usvojiti toliko podataka
14:08
as people used to take in in a lifetime.
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koliko su ljudi usvajali tijekom cijelog života.
14:11
And as you're thinking about this,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
14:14
there's four theories as to why this might be going on,
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postoje četiri teorije o tome zašto bi se to moglo događati,
14:16
plus a whole series of others.
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1327
uz cijeli niz drugih.
14:17
I don't have a good answer.
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Ja nemam dobar odgovor.
14:19
There really needs to be more research on this.
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Zbilja bi trebalo biti više istraživanja o tome.
14:22
One option is the fast food fetish.
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Jedna mogućnost je fetiš brze prehrane.
14:25
There's beginning to be some evidence
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Počeli su se javljati dokazi da su
14:27
that obesity and diet
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pretilost i prehrana
14:29
have something to do
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nekako povezani
14:31
with gene modifications,
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1768
s modifikacijom gena,
14:33
which may or may not have an impact
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2350
što može, ali ne mora imati utjecaja
14:35
on how the brain of an infant works.
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na način na koji mozak novorođenčeta radi.
14:39
A second option is the sexy geek option.
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3955
Druga mogućnost jest ona sexy štrebera.
14:43
These conditions are highly rare.
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4243
Ti uvjeti su zbilja rijetki.
14:47
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:50
(Applause)
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5300
(Pljesak)
14:55
But what's beginning to happen
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1633
Počelo se događati da,
14:57
is because these geeks are all getting together,
341
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2534
zato što se ti štreberi okupljaju,
14:59
because they are highly qualified for computer programming
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zato što su visoko kvalificirani za programiranje kompjutera
15:02
and it is highly remunerated,
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2318
što je veoma isplativo,
15:05
as well as other very detail-oriented tasks,
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3150
kao i drugi poslovi orijentirani na detalje,
15:08
that they are concentrating geographically
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2449
da su geografski koncentrirani
15:10
and finding like-minded mates.
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2967
i pronalaze partnere sličnih svjetonazora.
15:13
So this is the assortative mating hypothesis
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3568
To je hipoteza selektivnog križanja
15:17
of these genes reinforcing one another
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tih gena koji pojačavaju jedan drugog
15:19
in these structures.
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u tim strukturama.
15:22
The third, is this too much information?
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Treće, je li to previše informacija?
15:24
We're trying to process so much stuff
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Pokušavamo obraditi toliko toga
15:26
that some people get synesthetic
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2352
da neki ljudi razviju sinesteziju
15:28
and just have huge pipes that remember everything.
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2600
i imaju ogromne cijevi koje pamte sve.
15:31
Other people get hyper-sensitive to the amount of information.
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Drugi ljudi postaju hiper-osjetljivi na količinu informacija.
15:34
Other people react with various psychological conditions
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3982
Drugi reagiraju različitim psihološkim stanjima
15:38
or reactions to this information.
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ili reakcijama na te informacije.
15:39
Or maybe it's chemicals.
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Ili su možda kemikalije u pitanju.
15:42
But when you see an increase
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1765
Ali kada vidite porast
15:44
of that order of magnitude in a condition,
359
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2351
tih razmjera kod nekog stanja,
15:46
either you're not measuring it right
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1565
ili ga ne mjerite kako treba
15:48
or there's something going on very quickly,
361
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2518
ili se nešto događa veoma brzo,
15:50
and it may be evolution in real time.
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4032
a mogla bi to biti evolucija u stvarnom vremenu.
15:54
Here's the bottom line.
363
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Evo poante.
15:57
What I think we are doing
364
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2181
Mislim da mi
15:59
is we're transitioning as a species.
365
959315
1716
kao vrsta prelazimo u neko novo stanje.
16:01
And I didn't think this when Steve Gullans and I started writing together.
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A nisam to mislio kad smo Steve Gullans i ja počeli zajedno pisati.
16:06
I think we're transitioning into Homo evolutis
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2451
Mislim da prelazimo u Homo evolutisa
16:08
that, for better or worse,
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1399
koji, bilo to dobro ili loše,
16:10
is not just a hominid that's conscious of his or her environment,
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4182
nije samo hominid svjestan svoje okoline,
16:14
it's a hominid that's beginning to directly and deliberately
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3219
već hominid koji će početi izravno i namjerno
16:17
control the evolution of its own species,
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kontrolirati evoluciju vlastite vrste,
16:20
of bacteria, of plants, of animals.
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3834
bakterija, biljaka, životinja.
16:24
And I think that's such an order of magnitude change
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2835
Mislim da je to promjena tolikih razmjera
16:27
that your grandkids or your great-grandkids
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3103
da bi vaši unuci ili praunuci
16:30
may be a species very different from you.
375
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3045
mogli biti vrsta veoma drugačija od vaše.
16:33
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
16:35
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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