Juan Enriquez: Will our kids be a different species?

202,944 views ・ 2012-06-04

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

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Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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All right. So, like all good stories,
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this starts a long, long time ago
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when there was basically nothing.
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So here is a complete picture of the universe
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about 14-odd billion years ago.
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All energy is concentrated into a single point of energy.
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For some reason it explodes,
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and you begin to get these things.
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So you're now about 14 billion years into this.
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And these things expand and expand and expand
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into these giant galaxies,
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and you get trillions of them.
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And within these galaxies
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you get these enormous dust clouds.
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And I want you to pay particular attention
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to the three little prongs
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in the center of this picture.
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If you take a close-up of those,
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they look like this.
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And what you're looking at is columns of dust
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where there's so much dust --
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by the way, the scale of this is a trillion vertical miles --
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and what's happening is there's so much dust,
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it comes together and it fuses
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and ignites a thermonuclear reaction.
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And so what you're watching
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is the birth of stars.
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These are stars being born out of here.
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When enough stars come out,
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they create a galaxy.
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This one happens to be a particularly important galaxy,
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because you are here.
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(Laughter)
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And as you take a close-up of this galaxy,
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you find a relatively normal,
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not particularly interesting star.
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By the way, you're now about two-thirds of the way into this story.
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So this star doesn't even appear
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until about two-thirds of the way into this story.
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And then what happens
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is there's enough dust left over
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that it doesn't ignite into a star,
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it becomes a planet.
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And this is about a little over four billion years ago.
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And soon thereafter
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there's enough material left over
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that you get a primordial soup,
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and that creates life.
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And life starts to expand and expand and expand,
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until it goes kaput.
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(Laughter)
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Now the really strange thing
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is life goes kaput, not once, not twice,
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but five times.
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So almost all life on Earth
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is wiped out about five times.
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And as you're thinking about that,
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what happens is you get more and more complexity,
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more and more stuff
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to build new things with.
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And we don't appear
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until about 99.96 percent of the time into this story,
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just to put ourselves and our ancestors in perspective.
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So within that context, there's two theories of the case
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as to why we're all here.
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The first theory of the case
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is that's all she wrote.
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Under that theory,
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we are the be-all and end-all
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of all creation.
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And the reason for trillions of galaxies,
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sextillions of planets,
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is to create something that looks like that
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and something that looks like that.
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And that's the purpose of the universe;
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and then it flat-lines,
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it doesn't get any better.
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(Laughter)
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The only question you might want to ask yourself is,
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could that be just mildly arrogant?
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And if it is --
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and particularly given the fact that we came very close to extinction.
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There were only about 2,000 of our species left.
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A few more weeks without rain,
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we would have never seen any of these.
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(Laughter)
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(Applause)
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So maybe you have to think about a second theory
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if the first one isn't good enough.
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Second theory is: Could we upgrade?
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(Laughter)
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Well, why would one ask a question like that?
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Because there have been at least 29 upgrades so far
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of humanoids.
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So it turns out that we have upgraded.
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We've upgraded time and again and again.
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And it turns out that we keep discovering upgrades.
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We found this one last year.
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We found another one last month.
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And as you're thinking about this,
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you might also ask the question:
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So why a single human species?
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Wouldn't it be really odd
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if you went to Africa and Asia and Antarctica
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and found exactly the same bird --
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particularly given that we co-existed at the same time
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with at least eight other versions of humanoid
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at the same time on this planet?
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So the normal state of affairs
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is not to have just a Homo sapiens;
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the normal state of affairs
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is to have various versions of humans walking around.
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And if that is the normal state of affairs,
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then you might ask yourself,
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all right, so if we want to create something else,
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how big does a mutation have to be?
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Well Svante Paabo has the answer.
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The difference between humans and Neanderthal
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is 0.004 percent of gene code.
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That's how big the difference is
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one species to another.
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This explains most contemporary political debates.
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(Laughter)
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But as you're thinking about this,
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one of the interesting things
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is how small these mutations are and where they take place.
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Difference human/Neanderthal
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is sperm and testis,
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smell and skin.
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And those are the specific genes
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that differ from one to the other.
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So very small changes can have a big impact.
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And as you're thinking about this,
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we're continuing to mutate.
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So about 10,000 years ago by the Black Sea,
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we had one mutation in one gene
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which led to blue eyes.
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And this is continuing and continuing and continuing.
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And as it continues,
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one of the things that's going to happen this year
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is we're going to discover the first 10,000 human genomes,
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because it's gotten cheap enough to do the gene sequencing.
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And when we find these,
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we may find differences.
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And by the way, this is not a debate that we're ready for,
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because we have really misused the science in this.
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In the 1920s, we thought there were major differences between people.
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That was partly based on Francis Galton's work.
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He was Darwin's cousin.
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But the U.S., the Carnegie Institute,
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Stanford, American Neurological Association
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took this really far.
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That got exported and was really misused.
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In fact, it led to some absolutely horrendous
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treatment of human beings.
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So since the 1940s, we've been saying there are no differences,
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we're all identical.
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We're going to know at year end if that is true.
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And as we think about that,
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we're actually beginning to find things
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like, do you have an ACE gene?
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Why would that matter?
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Because nobody's ever climbed an 8,000-meter peak without oxygen
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that doesn't have an ACE gene.
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And if you want to get more specific,
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how about a 577R genotype?
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Well it turns out that every male Olympic power athelete ever tested
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carries at least one of these variants.
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If that is true,
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it leads to some very complicated questions
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for the London Olympics.
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Three options:
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Do you want the Olympics to be a showcase
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for really hardworking mutants?
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(Laughter)
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Option number two:
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Why don't we play it like golf or sailing?
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Because you have one and you don't have one,
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I'll give you a tenth of a second head start.
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Version number three:
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Because this is a naturally occurring gene
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and you've got it and you didn't pick the right parents,
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you get the right to upgrade.
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Three different options.
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If these differences are the difference
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between an Olympic medal and a non-Olympic medal.
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And it turns out that as we discover these things,
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we human beings really like to change
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how we look, how we act,
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what our bodies do.
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And we had about 10.2 million plastic surgeries in the United States,
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except that with the technologies that are coming online today,
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today's corrections, deletions,
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augmentations and enhancements
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are going to seem like child's play.
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You already saw the work by Tony Atala on TED,
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but this ability to start filling
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things like inkjet cartridges with cells
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are allowing us to print skin, organs
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and a whole series of other body parts.
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And as these technologies go forward,
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you keep seeing this, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing things --
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2000, human genome sequence --
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and it seems like nothing's happening,
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until it does.
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And we may just be in some of these weeks.
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And as you're thinking about
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these two guys sequencing a human genome in 2000
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and the Public Project sequencing the human genome in 2000,
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then you don't hear a lot,
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until you hear about an experiment last year in China,
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where they take skin cells from this mouse,
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put four chemicals on it,
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turn those skin cells into stem cells,
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let the stem cells grow
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and create a full copy of that mouse.
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That's a big deal.
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Because in essence
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what it means is you can take a cell,
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which is a pluripotent stem cell,
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which is like a skier at the top of a mountain,
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and those two skiers become two pluripotent stem cells,
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four, eight, 16,
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and then it gets so crowded
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after 16 divisions
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that those cells have to differentiate.
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So they go down one side of the mountain,
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they go down another.
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And as they pick that,
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these become bone,
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and then they pick another road and these become platelets,
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and these become macrophages,
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and these become T cells.
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But it's really hard, once you ski down,
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to get back up.
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Unless, of course, if you have a ski lift.
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And what those four chemicals do
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is they take any cell
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and take it way back up the mountain
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so it can become any body part.
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And as you think of that,
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what it means is potentially
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you can rebuild a full copy
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of any organism
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out of any one of its cells.
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That turns out to be a big deal
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because now you can take, not just mouse cells,
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but you can human skin cells
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and turn them into human stem cells.
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And then what they did in October
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is they took skin cells, turned them into stem cells
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and began to turn them into liver cells.
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So in theory,
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you could grow any organ from any one of your cells.
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Here's a second experiment:
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If you could photocopy your body,
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maybe you also want to take your mind.
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And one of the things you saw at TED
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about a year and a half ago
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was this guy.
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And he gave a wonderful technical talk.
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He's a professor at MIT.
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But in essence what he said
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is you can take retroviruses,
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which get inside brain cells of mice.
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You can tag them with proteins
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that light up when you light them.
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And you can map the exact pathways
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when a mouse sees, feels, touches,
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remembers, loves.
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And then you can take a fiber optic cable
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and light up some of the same things.
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And by the way, as you do this,
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you can image it in two colors,
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which means you can download this information
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as binary code directly into a computer.
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So what's the bottom line on that?
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Well it's not completely inconceivable
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that someday you'll be able to download your own memories,
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maybe into a new body.
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And maybe you can upload other people's memories as well.
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And this might have just one or two
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small ethical, political, moral implications.
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(Laughter)
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Just a thought.
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Here's the kind of questions
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that are becoming interesting questions
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for philosophers, for governing people,
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for economists, for scientists.
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Because these technologies are moving really quickly.
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And as you think about it,
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let me close with an example of the brain.
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The first place where you would expect
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to see enormous evolutionary pressure today,
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both because of the inputs,
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which are becoming massive,
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and because of the plasticity of the organ,
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is the brain.
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Do we have any evidence that that is happening?
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Well let's take a look at something like autism incidence per thousand.
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Here's what it looks like in 2000.
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Here's what it looks like in 2002,
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2006, 2008.
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Here's the increase in less than a decade.
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And we still don't know why this is happening.
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What we do know is, potentially,
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the brain is reacting in
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a hyperactive, hyper-plastic way,
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and creating individuals that are like this.
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And this is only one of the conditions that's out there.
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You've also got people with who are extraordinarily smart,
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people who can remember everything they've seen in their lives,
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people who've got synesthesia,
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people who've got schizophrenia.
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You've got all kinds of stuff going on out there,
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and we still don't understand
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how and why this is happening.
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But one question you might want to ask is,
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are we seeing a rapid evolution of the brain
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and of how we process data?
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Because when you think of how much data's coming into our brains,
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we're trying to take in as much data in a day
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as people used to take in in a lifetime.
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And as you're thinking about this,
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there's four theories as to why this might be going on,
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plus a whole series of others.
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I don't have a good answer.
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There really needs to be more research on this.
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One option is the fast food fetish.
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There's beginning to be some evidence
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that obesity and diet
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have something to do
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with gene modifications,
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which may or may not have an impact
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on how the brain of an infant works.
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A second option is the sexy geek option.
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These conditions are highly rare.
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(Laughter)
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(Applause)
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But what's beginning to happen
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is because these geeks are all getting together,
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because they are highly qualified for computer programming
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and it is highly remunerated,
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as well as other very detail-oriented tasks,
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that they are concentrating geographically
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and finding like-minded mates.
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So this is the assortative mating hypothesis
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of these genes reinforcing one another
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in these structures.
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The third, is this too much information?
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We're trying to process so much stuff
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that some people get synesthetic
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and just have huge pipes that remember everything.
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Other people get hyper-sensitive to the amount of information.
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Other people react with various psychological conditions
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or reactions to this information.
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Or maybe it's chemicals.
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But when you see an increase
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of that order of magnitude in a condition,
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either you're not measuring it right
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or there's something going on very quickly,
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and it may be evolution in real time.
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Here's the bottom line.
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What I think we are doing
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is we're transitioning as a species.
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And I didn't think this when Steve Gullans and I started writing together.
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I think we're transitioning into Homo evolutis
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that, for better or worse,
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is not just a hominid that's conscious of his or her environment,
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it's a hominid that's beginning to directly and deliberately
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control the evolution of its own species,
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of bacteria, of plants, of animals.
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And I think that's such an order of magnitude change
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that your grandkids or your great-grandkids
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may be a species very different from you.
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Thank you very much.
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(Applause)
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