Juan Enriquez: Will our kids be a different species?

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: Yu-Jia Wang 校对人员: Yuguo Zhang

All right. So, like all good stories,

和大家熟知的故事一样

this starts a long, long time ago

很久，很久以前

when there was basically nothing.

一切皆是虚无

So here is a complete picture of the universe

这就是大约140亿年前

about 14-odd billion years ago.

宇宙的全景

All energy is concentrated into a single point of energy.

所有能量会聚在一点

For some reason it explodes,

出于一些原因它发生了爆炸

and you begin to get these things.

于是你开始得到了这一切

So you're now about 14 billion years into this.

从那时到今天已经有140亿年了

And these things expand and expand and expand

它们无休止的膨胀，膨胀，膨胀

into these giant galaxies,

形成了这些巨型星系

and you get trillions of them.

数以亿万计

And within these galaxies

在这些星系之中

you get these enormous dust clouds.

存在着巨大数量的尘埃云

And I want you to pay particular attention

请大家注意观察

to the three little prongs

在图片中心的

in the center of this picture.

这三个小突起

If you take a close-up of those,

如果来个特写的话

they look like this.

它们是这样的

And what you're looking at is columns of dust

你们正在观察的是尘埃柱

where there's so much dust --

其中的尘埃非常密集

by the way, the scale of this is a trillion vertical miles --

顺便说一句，这幅图片的垂直尺度是一兆英里

and what's happening is there's so much dust,

在其中的巨量尘埃

it comes together and it fuses

相互聚集，融合

and ignites a thermonuclear reaction.

引发热核反应

And so what you're watching

你们正在看到的

is the birth of stars.

是恒星的诞生

These are stars being born out of here.

恒星就在这里形成

When enough stars come out,

当足够的恒星出现时

they create a galaxy.

就形成了星系

This one happens to be a particularly important galaxy,

这个星系是一个特别重要的星系

because you are here.

因为我们就在这儿

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And as you take a close-up of this galaxy,

如果你继续在近距离观察这个星系

you find a relatively normal,

你会发现一个相对普通的

not particularly interesting star.

并不特别有趣的恒星

By the way, you're now about two-thirds of the way into this story.

顺带一提，这个故事已经讲了三分之二了

So this star doesn't even appear

或者说这颗恒星

until about two-thirds of the way into this story.

直到那时甚至都还没有形成

And then what happens

之后发生的

is there's enough dust left over

是那里剩余的尘埃

that it doesn't ignite into a star,

并不足以引发核聚变形成恒星

it becomes a planet.

于是成为了行星

And this is about a little over four billion years ago.

这大约发生在40亿年前

And soon thereafter

之后不久

there's enough material left over

那里仍然有足够的材料留了下来

that you get a primordial soup,

形成“原生汤”

and that creates life.

生命从中诞生

And life starts to expand and expand and expand,

生命无休止的扩张，扩张，扩张

until it goes kaput.

直到它完蛋

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now the really strange thing

这其中非常奇怪的事

is life goes kaput, not once, not twice,

是生命灭绝了不止一次，两次

but five times.

而是五次

So almost all life on Earth

所以几乎现存的所有生物

is wiped out about five times.

都经历过五次大灭绝

And as you're thinking about that,

正如大家所想的那样

what happens is you get more and more complexity,

新生命包含着

more and more stuff

越来越多的质料

to build new things with.

越来越具有复杂性

And we don't appear

而我们人类

until about 99.96 percent of the time into this story,

直到故事进行了99.96%才出现

just to put ourselves and our ancestors in perspective.

这让我们能够对自己和我们的祖先有一个清晰的认识

So within that context, there's two theories of the case

在这个背景下有两种理论

as to why we're all here.

解释人类为什么存在

The first theory of the case

第一个理论是

is that's all she wrote.

这都是“她”写下来的

Under that theory,

按照这种理论

we are the be-all and end-all

我们是造物主最重要

of all creation.

也是最后的造物

And the reason for trillions of galaxies,

数万亿的星系

sextillions of planets,

无数的行星存在的原因

is to create something that looks like that

就是为了创造“这样”

and something that looks like that.

和“这样”的生命

And that's the purpose of the universe;

这就是宇宙存在的目的

and then it flat-lines,

然后它就停滞不前

it doesn't get any better.

没有进一步发展

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The only question you might want to ask yourself is,

大家会问自己这样一个问题

could that be just mildly arrogant?

这是不是太自大了？

And if it is --

如果是的话

and particularly given the fact that we came very close to extinction.

特别是基于人类曾经近乎灭绝的事实

There were only about 2,000 of our species left.

那时只剩下大约2000人

A few more weeks without rain,

如果再有几个星期不下雨

we would have never seen any of these.

我们就再也见不到这些人了

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

So maybe you have to think about a second theory

因此我们不得不去考虑第二种理论

if the first one isn't good enough.

既然第一种解释不通

Second theory is: Could we upgrade?

第二种理论是：我们能不能“升级”？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Well, why would one ask a question like that?

好吧，怎么会有人问这种问题呢？

Because there have been at least 29 upgrades so far

因为人类目前至少已经

of humanoids.

”升级“了29次

So it turns out that we have upgraded.

这表明我们确实”升级“过

We've upgraded time and again and again.

我们曾经一次又一次的“升级”

And it turns out that we keep discovering upgrades.

并且现在证明我们还在不断的”升级“

We found this one last year.

这是去年发现的

We found another one last month.

上个月我们又发现了一个

And as you're thinking about this,

既然现在大家都在思考这个理论

you might also ask the question:

就有可能产生一个疑问：

So why a single human species?

为什么只有一种人类呢？

Wouldn't it be really odd

难道在非洲、亚洲和南极洲

if you went to Africa and Asia and Antarctica

都发现同一种鸟类

and found exactly the same bird --

不是一件奇怪的事情吗？

particularly given that we co-existed at the same time

尤其是考虑到我们曾经和

with at least eight other versions of humanoid

其他至少8种人种

at the same time on this planet?

在地球上共存过

So the normal state of affairs

智人是唯一的人种的说法

is not to have just a Homo sapiens;

并不符合自然界的普遍法则

the normal state of affairs

自然界的普遍法则是

is to have various versions of humans walking around.

存在着各种各样不同的人种

And if that is the normal state of affairs,

如果确实是这样

then you might ask yourself,

我们又要问自己

all right, so if we want to create something else,

好吧，那么如果我们想要产生一个新的人种

how big does a mutation have to be?

究竟需要有多大的变异？

Well Svante Paabo has the answer.

Svante Paabo给出了答案

The difference between humans and Neanderthal

人类和尼安德特人

is 0.004 percent of gene code.

基因上只有0.004%的差别

That's how big the difference is

这就是两个物种之间

one species to another.

差异的大小

This explains most contemporary political debates.

这就解释了现在大多数的政治纠纷

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But as you're thinking about this,

但是大家仔细想想

one of the interesting things

一件很有意思的事

is how small these mutations are and where they take place.

这些变异究竟是什么？又是在哪里发生的？

Difference human/Neanderthal

人类和尼安德特人的差别在于

is sperm and testis,

精子和睾丸

smell and skin.

气味和皮肤

And those are the specific genes

某些特定的基因

that differ from one to the other.

产生了物种之间的区别

So very small changes can have a big impact.

一点点小小的变化就能引起巨大的影响

And as you're thinking about this,

大家想想看

we're continuing to mutate.

我们一直在变异

So about 10,000 years ago by the Black Sea,

在大约10000年前的黑海地区

we had one mutation in one gene

我们的一个基因发生了变异

which led to blue eyes.

这产生了蓝色的眼睛

And this is continuing and continuing and continuing.

这种变异一直持续着、持续至

And as it continues,

与此同时

one of the things that's going to happen this year

今年将发生的一件大事

is we're going to discover the first 10,000 human genomes,

是我们将要发现人类最早的10000个基因组

because it's gotten cheap enough to do the gene sequencing.

这得益于基因测序已经足够便宜了

And when we find these,

当我们获得这些数据

we may find differences.

我们就可能产生新的理论

And by the way, this is not a debate that we're ready for,

顺便说一句，我们还没有准备好去争论这些问题

because we have really misused the science in this.

因为我们在此曾经误用了科学

In the 1920s, we thought there were major differences between people.

在1920年代，我们认为人与人之间的基因差异是巨大的

That was partly based on Francis Galton's work.

这部分基于Francis Galton的研究

He was Darwin's cousin.

他是达尔文的表弟

But the U.S., the Carnegie Institute,

在美国，卡内基研究所

Stanford, American Neurological Association

斯坦福大学，美国神经学协会

took this really far.

对此进行了深入的研究

That got exported and was really misused.

这造成了这种理论的传播和更加严重的误用

In fact, it led to some absolutely horrendous

事实上它对人类的平等

treatment of human beings.

造成了非常恶劣的影响

So since the 1940s, we've been saying there are no differences,

自从1940年代，我们就一直在说我们没有差别

we're all identical.

我们都是一样的

We're going to know at year end if that is true.

今年年底我们就将知道这是不是真的

And as we think about that,

现在让我们来想想

we're actually beginning to find things

我们现在确实开始发现一些东西

like, do you have an ACE gene?

比如，你有ACE基因吗？

Why would that matter?

那又是什么呢？

Because nobody's ever climbed an 8,000-meter peak without oxygen

因为从没有能够不带氧气爬上8000米高的山峰的人

that doesn't have an ACE gene.

不携带有ACE基因

And if you want to get more specific,

如果想更具体的了解

how about a 577R genotype?

来看看577R基因型吧？

Well it turns out that every male Olympic power athelete ever tested

每个接受检测的奥林匹克男运动员

carries at least one of these variants.

都至少含有这种基因型的一个变体

If that is true,

如果这是真的

it leads to some very complicated questions

就给伦敦奥运会造成了

for the London Olympics.

一些很复杂的问题

Three options:

三种不同的选择：

Do you want the Olympics to be a showcase

你希望奥运会变成一个

for really hardworking mutants?

那些刻苦训练的变异人的展示舞台吗？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Option number two:

第二：

Why don't we play it like golf or sailing?

为什么我们不像高尔夫球或者帆船那样比赛呢？

Because you have one and you don't have one,

因为他有这个基因，而你没有

I'll give you a tenth of a second head start.

那就给你十分之一秒的先发优势

Version number three:

第三：

Because this is a naturally occurring gene

因为这是个自然发生的基因

and you've got it and you didn't pick the right parents,

他有幸获得了这个基因，而你不幸投错了胎

you get the right to upgrade.

所以你有权晋级

Three different options.

三个不同的选择

If these differences are the difference

如果这些差别是

between an Olympic medal and a non-Olympic medal.

奥运奖牌和非奥运奖牌的差别

And it turns out that as we discover these things,

就像我们所知道的那样

we human beings really like to change

人类非常愿意改变

how we look, how we act,

我们的容貌、行为方式

what our bodies do.

以及身体状况

And we had about 10.2 million plastic surgeries in the United States,

在美国大约进行过1020万例整形外科手术

except that with the technologies that are coming online today,

这还不算即将投入使用的新技术

today's corrections, deletions,

当今，修复、去除

augmentations and enhancements

丰胸和美容

are going to seem like child's play.

就像儿戏一般

You already saw the work by Tony Atala on TED,

我们曾经在TED看过Tony Atala的演讲

but this ability to start filling

这种填充技术

things like inkjet cartridges with cells

就像是装满细胞的墨盒一样

are allowing us to print skin, organs

让我们能够直接打印皮肤，器官

and a whole series of other body parts.

甚至一系列的身体部位

And as these technologies go forward,

随着技术的发展

you keep seeing this, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing things --

我们会不断看到这个，看到那个，不断看到新的东西

2000, human genome sequence --

2000年，人类基因组计划

and it seems like nothing's happening,

事情就好像是在发生那一刻之前

until it does.

什么也不会发生

And we may just be in some of these weeks.

我们现在也许就处在重大变革的前夕

And as you're thinking about

如同大家所知道的那样

these two guys sequencing a human genome in 2000

这两位在2000年进行人类基因组测序

and the Public Project sequencing the human genome in 2000,

还有2000年的公开项目——人类基因组计划

then you don't hear a lot,

之后我们就很少听到相关的信息了

until you hear about an experiment last year in China,

直到去年大家听说在中国的一个实验

where they take skin cells from this mouse,

实验者从老鼠皮肤上取出细胞

put four chemicals on it,

加入四种化学试剂

turn those skin cells into stem cells,

将皮肤细胞转变为干细胞

let the stem cells grow

让干细胞生长

and create a full copy of that mouse.

从而创造了那只老鼠的一个完全复制品

That's a big deal.

这非常了不起

Because in essence

因为从本质上说

what it means is you can take a cell,

这就意味着我们可以取一个

which is a pluripotent stem cell,

多能干细胞

which is like a skier at the top of a mountain,

好比山顶上的滑雪者

and those two skiers become two pluripotent stem cells,

两个滑雪者就是两个多能干细胞

four, eight, 16,

分裂成4个，8个，16个

and then it gets so crowded

然后变得越来越拥挤

after 16 divisions

16次分裂之后

that those cells have to differentiate.

这些细胞不得不进行分化

So they go down one side of the mountain,

所以一部分从山的这边下来

they go down another.

另一部分从那边下来

And as they pick that,

那些选择这条路的

these become bone,

就形成了骨骼

and then they pick another road and these become platelets,

而那些选择了另一条路的就变成了血小板

and these become macrophages,

这些变成了巨噬细胞

and these become T cells.

这些是T细胞

But it's really hard, once you ski down,

但是一旦你滑下去

to get back up.

想要重新上山就非常困难了

Unless, of course, if you have a ski lift.

除非，当然了，如果你有滑雪缆车就轻松多了

And what those four chemicals do

这就是那四种试剂所起的作用

is they take any cell

载着任何细胞

and take it way back up the mountain

重新回到山顶

so it can become any body part.

这样它们就能重新分化成身体的任何部分

And as you think of that,

正如大家所想

what it means is potentially

这意味着它有

you can rebuild a full copy

重建任何身体组织的潜力

of any organism

只要通过

out of any one of its cells.

任何一个细胞即可

That turns out to be a big deal

这是一个重大突破

because now you can take, not just mouse cells,

因为现在不仅仅是老鼠细胞

but you can human skin cells

我们也可以取人类皮肤细胞

and turn them into human stem cells.

将它变成人类干细胞

And then what they did in October

10月份

is they took skin cells, turned them into stem cells

他们把皮肤细胞变成干细胞

and began to turn them into liver cells.

又让干细胞分化成了肝细胞

So in theory,

理论上说

you could grow any organ from any one of your cells.

我们可以通过任何一个细胞来培养任何一个器官

Here's a second experiment:

这是第二个实验

If you could photocopy your body,

如果我们能为我们的身体做个复印件

maybe you also want to take your mind.

我们就会想也要给思想做一个

And one of the things you saw at TED

大约一年半之前

about a year and a half ago

我们在TED演讲上

was this guy.

见过这位老兄

And he gave a wonderful technical talk.

他带来了很精彩的技术演讲

He's a professor at MIT.

他是麻省理工大学的教授

But in essence what he said

本质上，他说的是

is you can take retroviruses,

我们可以利用反转录病毒

which get inside brain cells of mice.

进入小鼠的脑细胞

You can tag them with proteins

并且用蛋白质标记它们

that light up when you light them.

这种蛋白会产生荧光

And you can map the exact pathways

当老鼠看到，感觉，触摸到东西

when a mouse sees, feels, touches,

回忆，恋爱的时候

remembers, loves.

我们就能够测绘出小鼠脑部的信号路径

And then you can take a fiber optic cable

这样我们就能用光纤

and light up some of the same things.

来模拟成相同的东西

And by the way, as you do this,

与此同时

you can image it in two colors,

我们还可以把他们制成两种颜色

which means you can download this information

这意味着我们可以把这些信息

as binary code directly into a computer.

像二进制码一样下载到电脑里

So what's the bottom line on that?

这一切的结果是什么呢？

Well it's not completely inconceivable

这并不难想象

that someday you'll be able to download your own memories,

有一天我们可以把自己的记忆

maybe into a new body.

下载到一个新的身体

And maybe you can upload other people's memories as well.

或许也可以把别人的记忆下载到自己的身上

And this might have just one or two

而这不过会引起一两个

small ethical, political, moral implications.

小小的伦理、政治和道德问题而已

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Just a thought.

随便想想而已

Here's the kind of questions

有一些问题

that are becoming interesting questions

正在逐渐引起

for philosophers, for governing people,

哲学家，政府人员

for economists, for scientists.

经济学家，科学家的兴趣

Because these technologies are moving really quickly.

因为这些技术发展的非常之快

And as you think about it,

就像大家所知的那样

let me close with an example of the brain.

让我以一个关于大脑的例子来结束今天的演讲

The first place where you would expect

这也是我们认为

to see enormous evolutionary pressure today,

承受着巨大的演化压力的部分

both because of the inputs,

不仅仅是由于

which are becoming massive,

当今人类所接受的巨额信息量

and because of the plasticity of the organ,

还因为大脑本身的可塑性

is the brain.

这就是大脑

Do we have any evidence that that is happening?

那么我们有任何证据表明这种进化确实在发生吗？

Well let's take a look at something like autism incidence per thousand.

让我们来看看每千人中孤独症的发生概率

Here's what it looks like in 2000.

这是2000年的状况

Here's what it looks like in 2002,

这是2002年的状况

2006, 2008.

2006年，2008年

Here's the increase in less than a decade.

这是在这不到10年间所增加的数量

And we still don't know why this is happening.

我们到现在也不知道为什么是这样

What we do know is, potentially,

我所知道的是

the brain is reacting in

大脑在以一种潜在的

a hyperactive, hyper-plastic way,

极度活跃的，高度可塑性的方式在反应

and creating individuals that are like this.

并且创造出高度敏感，高度活跃的个体

And this is only one of the conditions that's out there.

这仅仅是其中的一种情况

You've also got people with who are extraordinarily smart,

我们都见过非常聪明的人

people who can remember everything they've seen in their lives,

过目不忘的人

people who've got synesthesia,

具有交叉感觉的人

people who've got schizophrenia.

还有精神分裂的人

You've got all kinds of stuff going on out there,

我们见过各种各样的情况

and we still don't understand

但我们始终不明白

how and why this is happening.

这一切如何，又为什么会发生

But one question you might want to ask is,

大家可能想问一个问题

are we seeing a rapid evolution of the brain

我们的大脑是否在高速进化？

and of how we process data?

当考虑到有多少信息进入大脑时

Because when you think of how much data's coming into our brains,

我们会问我们是如何处理信息的?

we're trying to take in as much data in a day

现代人每天接受的信息

as people used to take in in a lifetime.

相当于过去人们一辈子所接受到的

And as you're thinking about this,

现在大家考虑一下

there's four theories as to why this might be going on,

现在有四个理论试图解释这个现象

plus a whole series of others.

以及一系列的其他理论

I don't have a good answer.

我没法给出一个漂亮的答案

There really needs to be more research on this.

这方面还需要更进一步的研究

One option is the fast food fetish.

一个可能的答案是对于快餐迷恋

There's beginning to be some evidence

开始有证据表明

that obesity and diet

肥胖和饮食

have something to do

与基因修饰（表观遗传学）

with gene modifications,

有关

which may or may not have an impact

目前还不能确定

on how the brain of an infant works.

这是否对婴儿大脑的运作有影响

A second option is the sexy geek option.

第二种选项是“性感的书呆子”

These conditions are highly rare.

这真是很罕见

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

But what's beginning to happen

现在的情况是

is because these geeks are all getting together,

这些书呆子们聚在一起

because they are highly qualified for computer programming

他们有高超的编程水平

and it is highly remunerated,

薪酬也很高

as well as other very detail-oriented tasks,

还有其他注重细节的工作

that they are concentrating geographically

这些人集中在一起

and finding like-minded mates.

都有着类似的思想

So this is the assortative mating hypothesis

这就是选择性交配假说

of these genes reinforcing one another

这些基因在群体中

in these structures.

相互增强

The third, is this too much information?

第三，信息是不是太多了？

We're trying to process so much stuff

我们的大脑试图处理太多的信息

that some people get synesthetic

这就造成了某些人产生了交叉感觉（即通感）

and just have huge pipes that remember everything.

他们具有巨大的神经网络来记住所有事情

Other people get hyper-sensitive to the amount of information.

一些人对大量信息过度敏感

Other people react with various psychological conditions

另一些人对信息作出反应时

or reactions to this information.

伴随着各种心理上的状况

Or maybe it's chemicals.

又或许是化学试剂造成的？

But when you see an increase

如果发现

of that order of magnitude in a condition,

某种情况的数量大幅度提高

either you're not measuring it right

要么是测量不准确

or there's something going on very quickly,

要么就是确实有什么事情正在迅速发展

and it may be evolution in real time.

这说不定就是实时的进化

Here's the bottom line.

归根结底

What I think we are doing

我认为作为一个物种

is we're transitioning as a species.

我们正在转化

And I didn't think this when Steve Gullans and I started writing together.

当Steve Gullans和我一起开始写作的时候我想到了这个

I think we're transitioning into Homo evolutis

我觉得我们正在向“演化人”转化

that, for better or worse,

无论是好是坏

is not just a hominid that's conscious of his or her environment,

这都不仅仅是一个只对周围环境有意识的人种

it's a hominid that's beginning to directly and deliberately

而是一个直接的、有意的

control the evolution of its own species,

想要控制

of bacteria, of plants, of animals.

自己的的种族、细菌、植物乃至其他动物的人种

And I think that's such an order of magnitude change

我认为这是一个如此巨大的变化

that your grandkids or your great-grandkids

以至于我们的孙辈或重孙辈

may be a species very different from you.

可能与我们会是完全不同的物种

Thank you very much.

谢谢大家

(Applause)

（掌声）