Steven Cowley: Fusion is energy's future

Prevodilac: Isidora Bacic Lektor: Ivana Korom

The key question is, "When are we going to get fusion?"

Ključno pitanje jeste, ''Kako ćemo stvoriti fuziju?''

It's really been a long time since we've known about fusion.

Već dugo vremena znamo za fuziju.

We've known about fusion since 1920,

Za nju znamo još od 1920,

when Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington

kada su Ser Artur Stenli Edington

and the British Association for the Advancement of Science

i britansko udruženje za unapređenje nauke

conjectured that that's why the sun shines.

pretpostavili da je to razlog zašto sunce sija.

I've always been very worried about resource.

Uvek su me brinuli resursi.

I don't know about you, but

Ne znam za vas, ali

when my mother gave me food,

kada mi je majka davala da jedem

I always sorted the ones I disliked

uvek sam odvajao hranu koju nisam voleo

from the ones I liked.

od one koju jesam voleo.

And I ate the disliked ones first,

I prvo sam jeo onu koju nisam voleo,

because the ones you like, you want to save.

jer želite da sačuvate onu koju volite.

And as a child you're always worried about resource.

I kao dete uvek ste zabrinuti za resurse.

And once it was sort of explained to me

I jednom kada mi je objašnjeno

how fast we were using up the world's resources,

koliko brzo trošimo svetske resurse,

I got very upset,

bio sam veoma uznemiren,

about as upset as I did when I realized

otprilike onoliko uznemiren kao kada sam shvatio

that the Earth will only last about five billion years

da će planeta Zemlja postojati još samo nekih pet milijardi godina

before it's swallowed by the sun.

pre nego što je proguta sunce.

Big events in my life,

Važni događaji u mom životu,

a strange child.

bio sam čudno dete.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Energy, at the moment, is dominated by resource.

Energijom, u ovom trenutku, dominiraju resursi.

The countries that make a lot of money out of energy

Zemlje koje zarađuju puno novca od energije

have something underneath them.

imaju nešto ispod sebe.

Coal-powered industrial revolution in this country --

Industrijska revolucija u ovoj zemlji se bazirala na uglju --

oil, gas, sorry.

nafti, gasu, izvinite.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Gas, I'm probably the only person

Gas, ja sam verovatno jedina osoba

who really enjoys it when Mister Putin

koja se stvarno raduje kada Putin

turns off the gas tap, because my budget goes up.

zavrne slavinu za gas, jer moj budžet poraste.

We're really dominated now

Stvarno smo sada pod uticajem

by those things that we're using up faster and faster and faster.

onih stvari koje koristimo sve brže i brže i brže.

And as we try to lift billions of people out of poverty

I dok pokušavamo da izvučemo na milijarde ljudi iz siromaštva

in the Third World, in the developing world,

u Trećem svetu, u zemljama u razvoju,

we're using energy faster and faster.

koristimo energiju sve brže i brže.

And those resources are going away.

A ti resursi nestaju.

And the way we'll make energy in the future

A način na koji ćemo dobijati energiju u budućnosti

is not from resource,

nije iz resursa,

it's really from knowledge.

već zapravo iz znanja.

If you look 50 years into the future,

Ako pogledate 50 godina u budućnost,

the way we probably will be making energy

način na koji ćemo najverovatnije dobijati energiju

is probably one of these three,

je najverovatnije jedan od ova tri,

with some wind, with some other things,

sa nešto vetra, sa nekim drugim stvarima,

but these are going to be the base load energy drivers.

ali ovo će biti glavni energetski pokretači.

Solar can do it, and we certainly have to develop solar.

To može solarna energija i svakako je moramo razvijati.

But we have a lot of knowledge to gain before we can make solar

Ali moramo da steknemo još mnogo znanja pre nego što

the base load energy supply for the world.

solarna energija postane glavni energetski izvor na svetu.

Fission.

Fisija.

Our government is going to put in six new nuclear power stations.

Naša vlada će sagraditi šest novih nuklearnih elektrana.

They're going to put in six new nuclear power stations,

Oni će sagraditi šest novih nuklearnih elektrana,

and probably more after that.

i verovatno još nakon toga.

China is building nuclear power stations. Everybody is.

Kina gradi nuklearne elektrane. Svi ih grade.

Because they know that that is one sure way

Jer znaju da je to jedini sigurni način

to do carbon-free energy.

dobijanja energije bez ugljenika.

But if you wanted to know what the perfect energy source is,

Ali ako vas zanima savršeni energetski izvor,

the perfect energy source is one

savršeni energetski izvor je onaj

that doesn't take up much space,

koji ne zauzima puno prostora,

has a virtually inexhaustible supply,

ima skoro neiscrpne zalihe,

is safe, doesn't put any carbon into the atmosphere,

bezbedan je, ne ispušta ugljenik u atmosferu,

doesn't leave any long-lived radioactive waste:

ne ostavlja dugotrajni radioaktivni otpad,

it's fusion.

a to je fuzija.

But there is a catch. Of course there is always a catch in these cases.

Ali postoji ''kvaka''. Naravno uvek postoji ''kvaka'' u ovim slučajevima.

Fusion is very hard to do.

Teško je stvoriti fuziju.

We've been trying for 50 years.

Pokušavamo već 50 godina.

Okay. What is fusion? Here comes the nuclear physics.

U redu. Šta je fuzija? Evo malo nuklearne fizike.

And sorry about that, but this is what turns me on.

Izvinjavam se zbog toga, ali ovo me stvarno pali.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I was a strange child.

Bio sam čudno dete.

Nuclear energy comes for a simple reason.

Nuklearna energija nastaje iz prostog razloga.

The most stable nucleus is iron, right in the middle of the periodic table.

Najstabiljne jezgro ima gvožđe, u središtu periodnog sistema.

It's a medium-sized nucleus.

To je jezgro srednje veličine.

And you want to go towards iron if you want to get energy.

I želite da idete ka gvožđu ako želite da dobijete energiju.

So, uranium, which is very big, wants to split.

A, uran, koji je veoma veliki, želi da se cepa.

But small atoms want to join together,

Ali mali atomi žele da se spajaju,

small nuclei want to join together

mala jezgra žele da se spajaju

to make bigger ones to go towards iron.

da bi stvorila veća i išla ka gvožđu.

And you can get energy out this way.

I na taj način dobijate energiju.

And indeed that's exactly what stars do.

I to je zapravo ono što zvezde rade.

In the middle of stars, you're joining hydrogen together to make helium

U središtu zvezda spajate vodonik da biste dobili helijum,

and then helium together to make carbon,

a onda spajate helijum da biste dobili ugljenik,

to make oxygen, all the things that you're made of

da biste dobili kiseonik, sve stvari od kojih smo napravljeni

are made in the middle of stars.

se prave u središtu zvezda.

But it's a hard process to do

Ali ovo je težak proces

because, as you know, the middle of a star is quite hot,

jer, kao što znate, središte zvezda je veoma vruće,

almost by definition.

skoro po definiciji.

And there is one reaction

I postoji jedna reakcija

that's probably the easiest fusion reaction to do.

koja je verovatno najjednostavnija fuziona reakcija.

It's between two isotopes of hydrogen, two kinds of hydrogen:

Ona se odvija između dva izotopa vodonika, dve vrste vodonika,

deuterium, which is heavy hydrogen,

deuterijuma, koji je težak vodonik,

which you can get from seawater,

koji se dobija iz morske vode,

and tritium which is super-heavy hydrogen.

i tritijuma koji je super teški vodonik.

These two nuclei, when they're far apart, are charged.

Ova dva jezgra, kada su daleko udaljena, su naelektrisana.

And you push them together and they repel.

I ako ih približite, ona se odbijaju.

But when you get them close enough,

Ali ako ih dovoljno približite,

something called the strong force starts to act

nešto što se naziva jaka sila počinje da deluje

and pulls them together.

i privlači ih.

So, most of the time they repel.

I oni se uglavnom odbijaju.

You get them closer and closer and closer and then at some point

Kada ih približavate sve više i više u jednom trenutku

the strong force grips them together.

jaka sila ih uhvati zajedno.

For a moment they become helium 5,

Na trenutak postaju helijum 5,

because they've got five particles inside them.

jer imaju pet čestica u sebi.

So, that's that process there. Deuterium and tritium goes together

I to je proces ovde. Deuterijum i tritijum zajedno

makes helium 5.

prave helijum 5.

Helium splits out, and a neutron comes out

Helijum se cepa i izlazi neutron

and lots of energy comes out.

i izlazi puno energije.

If you can get something to about 150 million degrees,

Ako možete zagrejati nešto na oko 150 miliona stepeni,

things will be rattling around so fast

stvari će zujati okolo toliko brzo

that every time they collide in just the right configuration,

da svaki put kada se sudare u baš pravoj konfiguraciji,

this will happen, and it will release energy.

to će se dogoditi i oslobodiće energiju.

And that energy is what powers fusion.

I ta energija je ono što napaja fuziju.

And it's this reaction that we want to do.

I to je reakcija koju želimo da dobijemo.

There is one trickiness about this reaction.

Postoji jedna začkoljica kod ove reakcije.

Well, there is a trickiness that you have to make it 150 million degrees,

Zapravo i zagrevanje do 150 miliona stepeni je samo po sebi teško,

but there is a trickiness about the reaction yet.

ali začkoljica je vezana za reakciju.

It's pretty hot.

To je prilično vruće.

The trickiness about the reaction is that

Problem u vezi sa reakcijom jeste da

tritium doesn't exist in nature.

tritijum ne postoji u prirodi.

You have to make it from something else.

Morate ga napraviti od nečega drugog.

And you make if from lithium. That reaction at the bottom,

I on se dobija od litijuma. Ova reakcija na dnu,

that's lithium 6, plus a neutron,

to je litijum 6, plus neutron,

will give you more helium, plus tritium.

će vam dati više helijuma, plus tritijum.

And that's the way you make your tritium.

I tako pravite tritijum.

But fortunately, if you can do this fusion reaction,

Ali na sreću, ako imate ovu fuzionu reakciju,

you've got a neutron, so you can make that happen.

imate neutron, pa možete to da izvedete.

Now, why the hell would we bother to do this?

A zašto bi se koga vraga trudili da to radimo?

This is basically why we would bother to do it.

U suštini zbog ovoga se trudimo.

If you just plot how much fuel

Ako samo ucrtate koliko goriva

we've got left, in units of

je ostalo, u jedinicama

present world consumption.

sadašnje potrošnje u svetu.

And as you go across there you see

I kako prelazite preko ovoga vidite

a few tens of years of oil -- the blue line, by the way,

nekoliko desetina godina nafte -- plava linija, zapravo,

is the lowest estimate of existing resources.

je najmanja procena postojećih resursa.

And the yellow line is the most optimistic estimate.

A žuta linija je najoptimističnija procena.

And as you go across there you will see

I kako gledate duž ovoga videćete

that we've got a few tens of years, and perhaps 100 years

da imamo par desetina godina, možda 100 godina

of fossil fuels left.

upotrebe fosilnih goriva koje nam ostaju.

And god knows we don't really want to burn all of it,

A bog zna da stvarno ne želimo da sve ovo sagorimo.

because it will make an awful lot of carbon in the air.

Jer će to ispustiti jako mnogo ugljenika u vazduh.

And then we get to uranium.

A onda dolazimo do urana.

And with current reactor technology

A sa sadašnjom reaktorskom tehnologijom

we really don't have very much uranium.

zapravo nemamo baš mnogo urana.

And we will have to extract uranium from sea water,

I moraćemo da dobijamo uran iz morske vode,

which is the yellow line,

što je ova žuta linija,

to make conventional nuclear power stations

da bismo pravili konvencionalne nuklearne elektrane

actually do very much for us.

da bi zaista išta radile za nas.

This is a bit shocking, because in fact our government

To je malo šokantno, jer zapravo naša vlada

is relying on that for us to meet Kyoto,

računa na nas da ispunimo Kjoto Protokol,

and do all those kind of things.

i da uradimo sve te stvari.

To go any further you would have to have breeder technology.

Da biste išli dalje morate imati oplodnu tehnologiju.

And breeder technology is fast breeders. And that's pretty dangerous.

A oplodna tehnologija znači brze oplodne reaktore. A to je dosta opasno.

The big thing, on the right,

Ovo veliko ovde, sa desne strane,

is the lithium we have in the world.

je litijum koji postoji na svetu.

And lithium is in sea water. That's the yellow line.

A litijum je u morskoj vodi. To je žuta linija.

And we have 30 million years worth of fusion fuel in sea water.

I imamo 30 miliona godina fuzionog goriva iz morske vode.

Everybody can get it. That's why we want to do fusion.

Svako ga može dobiti. Zato želimo da radimo fuziju.

Is it cost-competitive?

Ali da li su njegove cene konkurentne?

We make estimates of what we think it would cost

Mi pravimo procene onoga koliko smatramo da će koštati

to actually make a fusion power plant.

da zaista napravimo fuzionu elektranu.

And we get within about the same price

I dobijamo okvirno istu cenu

as current electricity.

kao sadašnje struje.

So, how would we make it?

Kako bismo je dobili?

We have to hold something at 150 million degrees.

Moramo nešto održavati na 150 miliona stepeni.

And, in fact, we've done this.

I zapravo to smo uradili.

We hold it with a magnetic field.

Držimo ga uz pomoć magnetnog polja.

And inside it, right in the middle of this toroidal shape, doughnut shape,

A unutra, u samom središtu ovog prstenastog oblika, krofne,

right in the middle is 150 million degrees.

u samom središtu je 150 miliona stepeni.

It boils away in the middle at 150 million degrees.

Ključa u sredini na 150 miliona stepeni.

And in fact we can make fusion happen.

I zapravo možemo izvesti fuziju.

And just down the road, this is JET.

A niz ulicu, nalazi se JET.

It's the only machine in the world that's actually done fusion.

To je jedina mašina na svetu koja je stvarno izvela fuziju.

When people say fusion is 30 years away, and always will be,

Kada ljudi kažu da za fuziju treba 30 godina, i uvek hoće,

I say, "Yeah, but we've actually done it." Right?

kažem, ''Da, ali mi smo je zapravo uradili''. Shvatate?

We can do fusion. In the center of this device

Možemo da postignemo fuziju. U centru ovog uređaja

we made 16 megawatts of fusion power in 1997.

stvorili smo 16 megavata fuzione snage 1997. godine.

And in 2013 we're going to fire it up again

A 2013. ponovo ćemo ga pokrenuti

and break all those records.

i pobiti sve te rekorde.

But that's not really fusion power. That's just making some fusion happen.

Ali to nije stvarno fuziona energija. To je samo stvaranje fuzije.

We've got to take that, we've got to make that into a fusion reactor.

Moramo da uzmemo to i ugradimo ga u fuzioni reaktor.

Because we want 30 million years worth of fusion power for the Earth.

Jer želimo 30 miliona godina vrednu fuzionu energiju za Zemlju.

This is the device we're building now.

Ovo je uređaj koji sada gradimo.

It gets very expensive to do this research.

Postaje veoma skupo baviti se ovim istraživanjima.

It turns out you can't do fusion on a table top

Ispostavlja se da ne možete raditi fuziju za radnim stolom

despite all that cold fusion nonsense. Right?

uprkos svim tim budalaštinama o hladnoj fuziji. Shvatate?

You can't. You have to do it in a very big device.

Ne možete. Morate to raditi sa veoma velikim uređajem.

More than half the world's population is involved in building this device

Više od pola ljudi na planeti je uključeno u izgradnju ovog uređaja

in southern France, which is a nice place to put an experiment.

na jugu Francuske. Što je lepo mesto za eksperiment.

Seven nations are involved in building this.

Sedam država je uključeno u izgradnju ovoga.

It's going to cost us 10 billion. And we'll produce half a gigawatt of fusion power.

Koštaće nas 10 milijardi. A dobićemo pola gigavata fuzione energije.

But that's not electricity yet.

Ali to još nije struja.

We have to get to this.

Moramo doći do ovoga.

We have to get to a power plant.

Moramo doći do elektrane.

We have to start putting electricity on the grid

Moramo da počnemo sa unosom struje u mrežu

in this very complex technology.

tom veoma složenom tehnologijom.

And I'd really like it to happen a lot faster than it is.

I veoma bih voleo da se to događa brže nego sada.

But at the moment, all we can imagine is sometime in the 2030s.

Ali za sada možemo da predvidimo tek tokom 2030-ih godina.

I wish this were different. We really need it now.

Voleo bih da je drugačije. Potrebna nam je sada.

We're going to have a problem with power

Imaćemo problem sa energijom

in the next five years in this country.

u sledećih pet godina u ovoj zemlji.

So 2030 looks like an infinity away.

Zato 2030. godina izgleda beskonačno daleko.

But we can't abandon it now; we have to push forward,

Ali ne možemo odustati sada, moramo gurati napred,

get fusion to happen.

da ostvarimo fuziju.

I wish we had more money, I wish we had more resources.

Voleo bih da imamo više novca, da imamo više resursa.

But this is what we're aiming at,

Ali ovo nam je cilj,

sometime in the 2030s --

nekada tokom 2030-ih godina --

real electric power from fusion. Thank you very much.

prava struja od fuzije. Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)